Prime Minister Research Articles

Autocratic Genderwashing: Gender‐Equality Reforms in Serbia

While gender equality is usually linked with democracy, autocratic regimes frequently take the lead in such reforms. Focusing on the case of Serbia, this article demonstrates how gender equality reforms can be used as instruments of autocratic regimes. As electoral autocracies nowadays depend on international legitimation and support, they need to present a democratic image to the international audience. Very often they achieve this by introducing gender-sensitive policies and increasing the public visibility of women. This study shows that the democratic backsliding evidenced in Serbia since 2016 has been followed by increased attention to gender equality. In recent years, the Serbian parliament has increased the gender quota for national and local parliaments to 40% and passed several important pieces of legislation, including the Law on Prevention of Domestic Violence (2016) and the Gender Equality Law (2021). Additionally, the regime has appointed a record number of women to executive government positions. Since 2017, Serbia has had a lesbian woman serving as a prime minister and the government formed in 2020 was labelled a “women’s government,” with 40% of ministerial positions held by women. This article argues that the regime tends to adopt these democratic reforms while, at the same time, manipulating their meaning to advance a conservative agenda and bolster anti-gender mobilizations. These different—often contradictory—strategies help the regime address a variety of audiences—both international and domestic—and gain their recognition.

From Liberal Democracy to Illiberal Populist Autocracy: Possible Reasons for Hungary’s Autocratization

AbstractThe paper looks for the main reasons of how was the Hungarian government of the Fidesz Party lead by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán able to within 13 years undermine the independent checks on their power so that it could convert what had looked like a stable but imperfect democracy into an autocracy? After listing the most obvious reasons the paper looks particularly at, how much is the way of a mostly elite-driven democratic transition using the tools of ‚legal constitutionalism‘and ‚undemocratic liberalism‘without real historical traditions of a liberal democratic constitutional culture and with the regionally determined value system is to blame. This also leads to the question, how to allocate the responsibility for the backsliding between the elites and the citizens, influenced and often manipulated by the leaders.

Mandi Lok Sabha Showdown: Royal King Vs Bollywood Queen

The southern states of Kerala and Karnataka will be the centre of attention as India’s massive parliamentary elections enter their second of seven phases on April 26. On April 19, India’s general election for the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, began. On June 4, the outcomes of the biggest democratic election in history will be made public. The two main alliances, aside from a number of regional and national contenders, are the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), led by the main opposition Indian National Congress, and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which is led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP). India’s political scene frequently features captivating contests characterised by the coming together of disparate identities and backgrounds. This phenomenon is best exemplified by the upcoming election between two strong candidates, Bollywood star Kangana Ranaut and Royal scion Vikramaditya Singh, for the Mandi Lok Sabha seat in Himachal Pradesh. Through shedding light on the complex issues involved in the conflict between the conventional aristocracy, represented by Vikramaditya Singh, and the magnetism of Bollywood fame, personified by Kangana Ranaut, this research adds to a deeper understanding of the changing landscape of Indian politics, where identity politics and personality cults collide with the established power system.

Pursuing a smoke-free generation.

The United Kingdom may soon become a world leader in forging a smoke-free generation. Last month, the country passed a bill that bans the sale of cigarettes to anyone born in 2009 or later. The prime minister claims the policy will "phase out smoking in young people almost completely as early as 2040." A final vote by Parliament is expected next month. Tobacco claims 8 million lives every year, and could claim a billion lives over this century-mostly in low- and middle-income countries. For every person that dies, at least 30 more suffer from smokingrelated chronic disease. The benefits of a tobacco-free society would be transformational.

Ashesh Prosad Mitra. 21 February 1927 — 3 September 2007

Ashesh Mitra was a world-leading pioneer of studies of the ionosphere, the troposphere and the Earth's atmosphere. He devised methods for studying the impact of solar flares upon the electron density of the various layers of the atmosphere, particularly of the D-region, which can strongly disrupt radio communications. He set up the Indian national monitoring programme of these disturbances. His interests developed to span all aspects of atmospheric physics, both experimentally and theoretically, including atmospheric chemistry, the ozone hole and the detrimental effects of global warming owing to man-made industrial activities. He was held in the highest regard by his colleagues and by politicians, including Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, who appointed him director-general of the Indian Council for Scientific and Industrial Research. On the international scene, he was a very active and much respected radio scientist, becoming president of the International Union of Radio Science.

India’s G20 Presidency and Impact on Indian Tourism, Travel and Hospitality Business

It has been called Bharat’s G20 moment and how, the nation is using the opportunity to boost tourism and its vibrant culture. Milestones in any business are necessary, as they usher in a turning point. The push and pull factors of India, has ensured, not only inbound tourism, but galvanized domestic tourism on account of the facilities and opportunities and yes, the pride of every citizen to see his/her own country. If Covid-19 was a milestone with the learnings that it provided, G20 too has helped evoke the tourism, travel, and hospitality (TTH) business to reach the $1 trillion mark by 2047; when the nation celebrates its 100 years of existence as an independent nation. It was a moment of pride when Prime Minister Narendra Modi, leading the Indian delegation took over the G20 Presidency in 2022 from Indonesia and it was official that from 1st December 2022 to 30th November 2023. It was envisaged that a total of 215 G20 meetings would be conducted across 55 locations and tourism would have a total of four meetings. Three of the official meetings under the tourism track led by India’s G20 Sherpa, Mr. Amitabh Kant would be held at: Gujarat (Rann of Kutch), West Bengal (Siliguri) and Jammu and Kashmir (Srinagar). The fourth Ministerial Level tourism meeting of G20 leaders was organized in Goa where a multitude of decisions were taken on various domains that will impact the TTH businesses and yes, most importantly environmental. The research paper focuses on what that TTH stakeholders feel about the G20 meetings in India and how it would impact the Travel and Tourism scenario, both inbound tourism (IBT), outbound tourism (OBT) and domestic.

Does the military lose public confidence without compliance with civilian control? Experimental evidence from Japan

The military’s compliance with civilian control – a requisite of democracy – is believed to be a key determinant of public confidence in the military. However, this claim is empirically inconclusive, and its analytical framework is underdeveloped at an institutional and individual level. Furthermore, most extant studies focus on the USA, and its validity in other environments is unknown. Hence, this study examined the causal relationship via an online survey experiment using hypothetical scenarios in Japan, an established democracy with a considerable armed force and civil–military norms imported from the USA decades ago. The results showed that the Japanese participants significantly lost their trust in the military for incompliance with civilian control amid an armed conflict. However, the magnitude of the impact was context-dependent; it substantially differed per the directions of incompliance (arbitrary action or inaction), the actors involved in the control (the prime minister and legislature), and the respondents’ attributes (partisanship). These findings reduce empirical inconclusiveness regarding the mechanism of public confidence in the military and could help to detect ominous signs regarding public attitudes toward democratic principles in modern society. Moreover, this study provides clues to understanding what people in Japan think about the aspect of control of their de facto military and how they evaluate this organization. These findings have significant implications for understanding international security dynamics, particularly at a time when Japan is launching its largest arms build-up since World War II to make its defense budget the third-largest worldwide, after the USA and China.

Political familiarity vs. journalism background: insights from three Israeli prime ministers on social media

PurposeTo explore a potential relationship between politicians’ media background and social media success through an analysis of content and engagement strategies adopted by three consecutive Israeli prime ministers on their official Facebook pages.Design/methodology/approachA detailed comparative content analysis of a total of 1,242 posts published by three Israeli prime ministers – Benjamin Netanyahu, Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett – on the same official Facebook account, “the Prime Minister of Israel,” during their respective terms. Metrics like engagement rates, content distribution and media type utilization were considered.FindingsAll analyzed prime ministers exhibited consistent messaging strategies, suggesting a standardized approach to digital political communication. However, we found no correlation between a politician’s media background and their success on social media. Instead, decisive determinants of engagement outcomes were factors like longstanding political exposure and familiarity.Practical implicationsThe observed uniformity in leaders’ messaging strategies indicates a prevalent standardized approach in digital political communication, revealing potential avenues for innovation and diversification.Originality/valueThis research challenges the prevailing notion that background in media inherently benefits digital political engagement, emphasizing the significance of political experience. The results provide new insights into the evolving landscape of political communication. Using signaling theory to evaluate how digital content reveals leaders’ intentions and credibility, our findings provide new insights into political communication in the digital era.

Between a Burden and Green Technology: Rishi Sunak’s Framing of Climate Change Discourse on Facebook and X (Twitter)

The issue of climate change has been one of the critical foci of political discourse worldwide (Wagner, 2023). Given that political debates and political discourse are quite often communicated on Social Networking Sites (SNSs), for instance Facebook and X (Araújo & Prior, 2021), it appears highly relevant to tap into political actors’ discourse on SNSs that addresses the issue of climate change. Guided by the importance of SNSs in political discourse on climate change, the present article introduces and discusses a study on how Rishi Sunak, the current prime minister of the United Kingdom (the UK), frames the issue of climate change on his official Facebook and X accounts. Specifically, the aim of the study was to identify the types of frames used in Sunak’s climate change discourse in a corpus of his posts on Facebook and X. The corpus was collected and analysed in accordance with the methodology proposed and developed by Entman (2007). The results of the analysis revealed that Sunak’s framing of climate change involved a pragmatic economy-oriented aspect, which was presented discursively by imparting it a personalised dimension that involved multimodality. In particular, it was discovered that Sunak frequently framed the issue of climate change via the frames Burden and Green Technology. The findings were discussed in conjunction with the prior research on framing in climate change discourse.

Scrutiny of ministerial ethics and standards of conduct in the UK: diluted accountability?

IMPACT The UK’s system for regulating the standards of conduct of its politicians today consists of an overlapping array of different bodies. Focusing primarily on ministers, the authors critique these arrangements and argue that they collectively—and in most cases individually—do not satisfy the demands of substantive accountability, owing to the high potential for political interference and the ‘gaps’ in the system. Particularly problematic is the Independent Adviser on Ministers’ Interests, an office which has been repeatedly shown to be toothless, subject to political interference and navigable by a ‘rogue’ prime minister such as Boris Johnson. In place of this, the authors recommend substantive reform of the system, with a single regulator, a new ‘Office of Parliamentary and Ministerial Standards’, at its core. This body would be independent of both parliament and government, adequately resourced to engage in and lead detailed investigations and empowered to make definitive rulings as to when the various codes of conduct have been breached. This article contains insights and analysis which will be of significance for those managing scrutiny and oversight processes relating to ethics and standards of conduct, at all levels of governance. While focused on the UK, the insights of this article are particularly pertinent for other ‘Westminster’ systems (including within the UK), but may also be of interest to scholars concerned with how to safeguard political systems against the impact of populist and authoritarian actors, who are gaining a foothold in parliaments across the democratic world and achieving executive power.

Sweden’s race to the bottom: advancing a racial security state

This article provides a close reading of the Swedish prime minister’s speech to the nation in September 2023 during a spiral of deadly shootings. From a criminological perspective it engages with the relation between policing a crisis and the crafting of a state project. Sweden’s punitive turn stands in sharp contrast to the previous ‘Nordic model’ which was regarded as exceptionally humane. What, asks the author, are the main ideological features of the current Swedish government’s security state project? Theoretically, the article draws from critical contributions on racism and security. The analysis shows that the discourse of the Swedish head of government targets racialised populations, within and without the borders of the nation. The policing of the current crisis should be conceptualised as a race to the bottom − in a dual sense. Firstly, it is a reconfiguration of Sweden’s race relations. Second, it is a drift along a militarisation continuum.

Monocratic cybersecurity in the EU member states: insights from Italy, France, Germany and Spain

ABSTRACT The paper investigates the interplay between the development of cybersecurity policies and one of the major transformations underway in contemporary democratic regimes, i.e. the gradual shifting of power and decision-making authority from parliamentary assemblies towards national governments and prime ministers. The study relates the structure of cybersecurity governance in the four major EU member states (i.e. France, Germany, Italy and Spain) to the rise of the monocratic government, meant as a political process affecting the relationships both between executive and legislative powers, and between public authorities and private interests. The analysis shows how monocratization affects national cybersecurity policies in contemporary Western democracies, albeit to varying degrees in the four Eu member states. Furthermore, the analysis emphasizes the role of cybersecurity policymaking as a driver of monocratization, which is gradually expanding the power of prime ministers at the expense of parliaments.

Anti-terrorist cooperation as part of Poland’s geopolitical shift. “Operation Bridge” and the rise of a strategic partnership with the United States

This paper discusses Poland’s involvement in “Operation Bridge,” which aimed to transport Jewish citizens from the Soviet Union to Israel between 1989 and 1992. The study is based on recently declassified documents from the former intelligence and counterintelligence services, the Foreign Ministry, and the Prime Minister’s Office, supplemented by accounts of policymakers, secret service officers, and militia involved in protecting Soviet Jews during transit operations. The author argues that this operation was not just a humanitarian effort but also had significant geopolitical implications. The newly elected non-communist government under Tadeusz Mazowiecki saw this as a critical move to establish stronger ties with the United States and Israel. The author also highlights how the cooperation between Poland and the United States in intelligence sharing, counterterrorism, and security operations paved the way for Poland’s strategic partnership with the United States and its eventual entry into NATO. The paper contributes significantly to our understanding of the role played by Poland in the post-Cold War era and sheds new light on the development of US–Polish relations.

The Downing Street Chief-of-Staff: a case study in political management

AbstractThe role of Downing Street Chief-of-Staff has been neglected by examinations of British Politics, prime ministers, and political leadership and management. This is despite the role having existed since 1997. This article is a “first move” in correcting this omission. The Chief’s responsibilities are difficult to define but cover oversight of the political operation within 10 Downing Street. This includes Human Resources; “gatekeeping”; being the PM’s closest adviser; institutional reforms; and other related functions. The article uses a theoretical framework drawn from the emerging literature on political management (Lees-Marshment, in Political management: the dance of government and politics, Routledge, Abingdon, 2021) to provide an understanding of what the Chief does and why it is important that we comprehend it better. It focuses upon how chiefs have undertaken the four “D’s” (deliberating, designing, doing, and dancing) of political management and what insights can be gleaned from this evidence. Application of this framework helps to reveal key developments of chiefs’ work in a structured and detailed manner.

Facebook Campaigning in the 2019 and 2021 Canadian Federal Elections

Canada’s federal elections in 2019 and 2021 produced a similar outcome—a minority Liberal government. These back-to-back elections provide an ideal context to understand trends in digital campaigning strategies and assess how the pandemic influenced campaigns’ use of social media. We examine how the three leaders of the major parties used Facebook in 2019 (<em>n</em> = 712) compared to 2021 (<em>n</em> = 979). The Conservative leader O’Toole posted more frequently than other candidates in 2021, fitting with the equalization theory of digital campaigning. In 2019 and 2021, the incumbent prime minister, Trudeau, received the most user engagement on his Facebook posts despite calling a snap election during a pandemic and less than two years into his mandate. These findings support normalization theories of digital campaigning with evidence of an accumulating incumbent advantage. The Covid-19 pandemic sidelined attention to climate change. We argue that the Liberal government owned both issues; we expected Trudeau to have greater attention to and user engagement for these policy posts. In general, Facebook posts about the pandemic yielded greater user engagement than posts that did not mention the pandemic. Candidates tested new campaign strategies in 2021, particularly making calls to interact with them; these posts yielded higher user engagement than posts that did not include a call to interact. While candidates used new social media campaign strategies, voter turnout declined from 2019 to 2021. These findings have implications for other democratic systems and the future of digital campaigning.

Latvia: Political Developments and Data in 2023

AbstractThe elections of the state president by the Latvian Parliament brought about not only a new Cabinet and a new prime minister but also a new coalition and an advancement of the social liberal agenda, including the legal regulation of same‐sex partnership. The new Cabinet continued a strongly supportive Ukraine policy aided by de‐Russification efforts at the grassroots level. The left‐leaning Progressives became part of the governing coalition for the first time, but their impact on government policies remains to be seen.

Front-line guardian of the status quo: Japan under the Kishida government

Abstract Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and his government have implemented bold defence, diplomatic and economic policies against the challenges to the status quo order posed by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and increased Chinese assertiveness. What do these policies unveil about Japan's strategy and response to the transformed strategic environment? This article argues that the Kishida government has upgraded Japan to a front-line guardian of the status quo order. To achieve its front-line role, the Kishida government has consolidated Japan's deterrence policy, namely focusing on two main pillars—military and rules. To ensure Japan's frontline role is sustainable, this policy paper makes three recommendations: Japan must develop strategic clarity and clear operational plans on how to respond to a regional contingency, such as the Taiwan Strait; Japan must resolve domestic problems that prevent the increase in defence spending to 2 per cent in the period to 2027. Japan's role as a front-line state to protect the status quo order is very much dependent on the availability of resources that would be provided by this increase in defence spending; Japan should re-energize its efforts towards east Asia through a sustained diplomatic, economic and security means. This is important in securing support for Japan's preferred vision of regional and global order from not only like-minded partners and friends in east Asia, but also China. Japan's approach should underscore how the extant status quo order benefits all states, including China, especially in terms of spreading economic prosperity, development and connectivity.

History, Fiction, and Trauma

Abstract Post independent India has witnessed several horrific incidents of communal violence. The largest communal riot happened in the year 1984, in the capital city New Delhi. The Anti- Sikh Riots of 1984, happened after the assassination of Indira Gandhi, the then Prime Minister of India. But for a long time, there was silence surrounding the incident in which thousands lost their lives. The silence was primarily caused from the trauma inflicted from the incident. There are reasons to believe that the silence was politically motivated too. But the role fictional writings have played in communicating the traumatic memory of the incident was significant. This paper studies the novel Amu written by Shonali Bose to understand representation of traumatic memory of the community. The paper attempts to problematize the decades long silence surrounding the incident and the novel’s role along with other similar fictional accounts’ in unraveling the truth of the incident. The concept of unspeakability in trauma is examined alongside the forced silencing of the incident. Keywords: History, Unspeakability, trauma, 1984 Anti-Sikh Riots, Fiction, Silencing

‘The Straw that Broke the Back’, New Zealand and Britain’s Referendum on European Community Membership, 1975

ABSTRACT This article examines the role that New Zealand played during the renegotiation of terms and the referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Community in 1975. This topic has received little attention from historians, despite New Zealand trade being among the most prominent negotiating items between the British Government and its European Community partners in that year. For the first time in relation to this topic, this research draws on archival sources from the United Kingdom, New Zealand and the European Community. It concludes that the issue of New Zealand assumed a disproportionate influence on the renegotiated terms agreed in the Dublin Summit of 1975, in large part because British Prime Minister Harold Wilson and Foreign Secretary James Callaghan seized on it as one of the few areas that their Government could obtain substantive results in the renegotiation. There were also longer-term factors at play, suggesting continuities in Britain’s approach to New Zealand and the European Community both before and after accession. This suggests a broader reassessment of Britain’s relations with its former colonies in the context of European Community accession is required.

Analyzing Matched 2 × 2 Tables from all Corners

Squared 2 × 2 tables with binary data from matched pairs are typically analysed using Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel methodology, conditional logistic regression, or random intercepts logistic regression. These are all “pair-specific” type of approaches. However, many more methods and models for clustered binary data, including marginal models and marginalisable pair-specific models, can be applied. We provide a comprehensive overview of methods and apply them all to two well-known example datasets, the prime minister’s performance and the myocardial infarction datasets. The simple setting of matched binary data allows us to compare and relate different models, methods and their estimates. A technical explanation is given for why in some settings boundary estimates are obtained.