You have accessJournal of UrologyBladder Cancer: Upper Tract Transitional Cell Carcinoma II (MP48)1 Sep 2021MP48-20 COMPARING AND VALIDATING DIFFERENT NOMOGRAMS FOR PREDICTING SURVIVAL AFTER RADICAL NEPHROURETERECTOMY FOR PRIMARY UPPER URINARY TRACT UROTHELIAL CARCINOMA Shicong Lai, Pengjie Wu, Jianyong Liu, Ming Liu, and Jian-Ye Wang Shicong LaiShicong Lai More articles by this author , Pengjie WuPengjie Wu More articles by this author , Jianyong LiuJianyong Liu More articles by this author , Ming LiuMing Liu More articles by this author , and Jian-Ye WangJian-Ye Wang More articles by this author View All Author Informationhttps://doi.org/10.1097/JU.0000000000002074.20AboutPDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints ShareFacebookLinked InTwitterEmail Abstract INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE: Upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) is an aggressive malignancy with high risk of cancer-specific mortality. Therefore, assessing a patient’s condition and providing an accurate prognosis is crucial. Currently, several nomograms for cancer-specific survival (CSS) following RNU have been proposed. However, these nomograms incorporate different variables and only one has been externally validated. Thus, current study was designed to compare the predictive performances of these four prognostic models. METHODS: Clinicopathological and survival data from 258 primary UTUC patients who underwent RNU with bladder cuff excision between January 2004 and May 2020 were collated. Cox’s univariate and multivariable regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors associated with CSS. Detailed prognostic scores for every patient were calculated using regression coefficients generated with each nomogram. Performance characteristics for each nomogram were then quantified through calibration and discrimination. The nomograms were compared and contrasted using areas under curves (AUC) in the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS: Of the initial 258 patients, 115 meet our eligibility criteria. At a median follow-up of 91.7 months, 21 (18.3%) died as a consequence of UTUC. Multivariable analysis revealed that high tumor stage, positive nodal status and sessile tumor architecture were independent prognostic factors for CSS. When applied to our sample, median Cha, Rouprêt, Seisen and Yates scores were 106.2, 119.4, 197.3 and 147.8, respectively. AUCs used for predicting CSS, highlighted good predictive capabilities with 0.832, 0.833, 0.840 and 0.855, respectively. Contrasting performances suggests there is no significant difference between these nomograms (all p>0.05). Calibration plots also revealed CSS predictions at 5 years had relative concordance; however, decision curve analyses suggests the Yates nomogram holds the greatest net benefit for most of the examined 5-year CSS probabilities. CONCLUSIONS: The four nomograms studied appear accurate at predicting 5-year CSS after RNU for primary UTUC across a mainland Chinese population. This study also suggests that the Yates nomogram may be superior when calibration and decision curve analysis are taken as benchmarks. However, further external validation is still required across larger, more ethnically diverse populations before adopting this nomogram into clinical practice. Source of Funding: None © 2021 by American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc.FiguresReferencesRelatedDetails Volume 206Issue Supplement 3September 2021Page: e873-e873 Advertisement Copyright & Permissions© 2021 by American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc.MetricsAuthor Information Shicong Lai More articles by this author Pengjie Wu More articles by this author Jianyong Liu More articles by this author Ming Liu More articles by this author Jian-Ye Wang More articles by this author Expand All Advertisement Loading ...