Primary Elections Research Articles

Gender, Politics, and the Glass Ceiling: Comparative Analysis of Male and Female Politicians’ Agenda-Building Efforts in the U.S. Primaries

ABSTRACT This study focuses on investigating whether male and female politicians have an equal opportunity to influence the media agenda through their strategic communication efforts during the 2020 U.S. primary elections. Exploratory in nature, this study is grounded in agenda-building theory. This research employs mixed-method content analysis to compare the campaign press releases and subsequent news coverage of three male and three female candidates from the U.S. primaries. The findings revealed that, while both female and male politicians’ messages significantly correlated with the news agenda across three levels of agenda-building, there was no significant difference by gender. However, issues framed as “masculine” were more strongly linked with the media agenda compared to “feminine” issues. This study contributes to communication research by exploring the current state of gender stereotypes in political media coverage, offering insights into the persistence of a ‘glass ceiling’ in strategic news coverage. Additionally, it contributes to agenda-building research by incorporating gender and the context of primary elections in the U.S. which are underrepresented in the literature, into the complex relationship between political campaign messages and news agendas.

Choice Overload in Crowded Primary Elections

The number of candidates running in U.S. primary elections is increasing. Contested primary elections force voters to decide between candidates that share party labels and are ideologically similar. Similar to contexts of non-partisan elections, an increase in the number of candidates should exacerbate the cognitive demand of voting in primary elections. We expect large candidate fields in primaries make voters (1) spend less time looking at each candidate profile, (2) more likely to abstain, (3) more likely to vote based on ballot position, and (4) more likely to feel overwhelmed with the decision. All four of these expectations were preregistered. We test the effect of large candidate fields on voter behavior using a survey experiment ( n = 2000) fielded by YouGov. We find large candidate fields cause respondents to spend less time looking at candidate profiles, to select candidates in the first half of the ballot, and to feel overwhelmed by the decision-making process. In contrast to our expectations, we find large candidate fields make respondents less likely to abstain.

Evaluation of the I-Voting System for Remote Primary Elections of the Czech Pirate Party

Evaluation of the I-Voting System for Remote Primary Elections of the Czech Pirate Party

Who Decides? Media, MAGA, Money, and Mentions in the 2022 Republican Primaries

Political elites play an important role in determining who wins primaries, yet comparatively little is known about which voices in party networks matter when different intra-party signals are sent. We examine this question using an original dataset of Republican Senate and gubernatorial primaries in 2022, an election cycle with substantial intra-party conflict in primary elections. We demonstrate that Fox News appearances (media), Trump’s endorsements (MAGA), campaign fundraising (money), and Twitter engagement (mentions) were all positively associated with vote share. We then assess the state of primary fields prior to Trump’s endorsements, showing that endorsed candidates were outperforming their competitors prior to his involvement. Finally, we consider the state of primary fields after Trump endorsed, demonstrating that his support was associated with a thirteen percentage point increase in both fundraising share and polling which lasted through to the primary. These findings provide clarity on the relative weight of different signals in contested party nominations.

Theatre of the Absurd, Pre-Election Matters and the Future of Democracy in Nigeria: Reflections on APC V Machina

The practice of theatre of the absurd is more present and popular with politicians in Africa than with playwrights. Particularly in Nigeria, the grotesque images and ridiculousness in the utterances of those saddled with the responsibilities of governance can only be viewed as characters in any known absurdist’ play. Nigeria is a nascent democracy, and the 2023 general elections are fraught with inadequacies right from the moment of selection of party candidates through the election proper. Candidates, political parties executives and the court have engineered these inadequacies. The concern of court being the last hope of common man, is on the administration of justice as perceived by parties involved in a case and the society. Therefore, a flawed judgment can only serve to dampen the peoples’ belief in the sanctity of the judiciary. On 28th May 2022, Bashir Machina contested and won the All Progressive Congress’s Yobe North Senatorial primary election unopposed, and in June the same year, the political party submitted the name of Ahmad Lawan to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) as its candidate for the main election into the Senate. In the ensuing litigation, both lower court and court of appeal affirmed the authentic candidacy of Machina, however, the Supreme Court in its judgment, affirmed Ahmad Lawan as the APC candidate for the election to the Senate. It is against this background that this study examines APC v Machina and argued that in this particular case, justice has been perceived not to have been done by the large segment of the society based on the peoples reaction in the media. We conclude that the five justices of the Supreme Court with divided resolution of three against two, and other participants in the litigation, merely represent different characters of an absurd drama fit only for the stage.

Italy: Political Developments and Data in 2023

AbstractThe year 2023 was a year of consolidation for the government of Giorgia Meloni (Fratelli d'Italia). After the turbulent 2022, the 2023 electoral landscape in Italy saw minimal changes at the national level. However, while there were no national elections, regional elections were held in five regions, bearing witness to shifts and stances within both the majority and the opposition. At the national party level, leadership changes occurred both in the center‐left and in the center‐right. On the one hand, following primary elections, Elly Schlein became the first woman to lead the Partito Democratico. On the other, Forza Italia faced uncertainty following the passing of Silvio Berlusconi, with Antonio Tajani appointed interim leader. Other than that, the political landscape in Italy remained relatively stable in 2023, with Giorgia Meloni seeking to consolidate her leadership within the coalition and her credibility as head of government, while the opposition strove to reorganize.

It’s not just what you say: the impact of message tone on intra-party endorsements

This study expands previous research on political endorsements by focusing on the tone of the endorsement, rather than the endorser or the presence/absence of any endorsement at all. Using a 2×2 experimental design and a sample of 906 registered voters from a midwestern U.S. state, this study measures the effect of positive and negative endorsements on the voter perceptions of the endorsee, endorser, and unendorsed candidate during a partisan primary election campaign. Results support the idea that positive endorsements generally improve voters’ attitudes toward the endorsee and the endorser and negative endorsements generally hurt voters’ perception of the unendorsed candidate. Further interaction analyses show that factors such as a voter’s existing enthusiasm for politics, government, and politicians can moderate the effect of endorsements. The findings are in line with the proposition of the Social Judgment Theory and support the existing literature on the effect of endorsements.

Post-Roe Political Communication: Examining Activist Campaign Strategies in the 2022 Kansas Abortion Referendum

In August 2022, the Kansas primary election ballot featured an abortion referendum called the “Value Them Both” amendment. This represented the first time U.S. voters were able to respond electorally to the Dobbs v. Jackson Supreme Court decision. Two groups, the Value Them Both Coalition (VTBC) and Kansans for Constitutional Freedom (KCF), were heavily involved in campaigning across television and social media. We conducted a qualitative thematic analysis of their messaging and identified three approaches used by both campaigns: Integrity Signals, Extremity Emphasis, and Conservative Identity. Findings provide insights into strategic communication frames being employed in the post-Roe political communication landscape.

Choosing legislative candidates via primaries: The pivotal role of executive incumbency

How much influence does incumbency have on the way parties nominate candidates? I address this question in the context of Argentina, examining how political parties decide on candidate nomination methods for National Deputies. I argue that holding the governorship creates an imbalanced distribution of resources within a party, leading party factions to lean toward consensus in candidate selection and reducing the likelihood of choosing a primary election. Conversely, when a party lacks the governorship, its provincial party leader may have a weaker influence in deterring primary elections. I also theorize the various situations and resources governors can employ to discourage primary elections, including potential coattail effects, the option of seeking reelection, control over the primaries’ selectorate, and control of the electoral calendar. To test my expectations, I employ a regression discontinuity design, focusing on governors and those who finished as runners-up in lower chamber elections from 1985 to 2023. My findings reveal that governor incumbency decreases the probability of holding a primary election. I conduct further analyses by examining subgroups, considering the governor’s circumstances and the resources I previously theorized as factors influencing primary deterrence. I find that incumbency only deters primaries when the governor and National Deputies elections are concurrent, when the governor is not term-limited, and when they have control over the electorate and the electoral calendar.

Testing Theories of States' Adoption of the Direct Primary

Understanding the origins of primary elections has important implications for evaluating their role in American elections. While there is little argument about the importance of primaries to the American electoral system, there is less agreement about why states adopted the direct primary and what they were intended to accomplish. Previous scholarship has laid out three theories: the strength of the progressive movement, parties' efforts to maintain one-party rule, and the urbanization of American society. Using comprehensive state-level data from 1892 to 1930, we test these theories of states' adoption of direct primaries. We find a strong influence of the strength of the progressive movement and the rate of urbanization on the adoption of the direct primary, but we do not, however, find any influence of state partisan competition. Our findings reinforce original arguments about the importance of the progressive movement and urbanization in the adoption of the direct primary.

Lame duck law enforcement

Election losses for incumbent sheriffs result in lame ducks who oversee local law enforcement for as long as 10 months before the next sheriff takes office. Monthly arrest rates decline 11% subsequent to a primary election loss and 20.3% after losing a general election; violent crime arrests drop 24.8% in the two months following a general election loss. Our results demonstrate the costs of electoral turnover where day-to-day duties are sensitive to effort and conscientiousness.

Presidential Primaries in Chile, 2013-2021: Institutions, Voter Turnout, and Results

Objective/context: This article analyzes the presidential primary elections in Chile from 2013 to 2021. As established by law, unlike in other Latin American countries, these elections are voluntary, simultaneous, and binding. Methodology: Presidential primary elections are studied in three dimensions: first, the institutions that regulate them; second, the electoral participation; and third, the results. For the analysis of the institutions, Law 20640 is explained. For electoral participation and the results of the primary elections, the statistical method is used, including a descriptive and inferential data analysis; the latter, mainly with multiple linear regression models and graphs of predicted values. Conclusions: Electoral participation in primaries significantly predicts participation in the general election and is strongly determined by the levels of poverty and rurality of the communes. Regarding the results, the Chilean experience shows that ideologically extreme candidates do not always triumph and that in some occasions—such as the 2021 elections—the relationship between the outcome of the primary elections and the candidates’ electoral performance in the first round is far from robust. Originality: This study analyzes three electoral cycles of presidential primaries in Chile and combines an analysis of the institutions that regulate the process with the application of statistical models to explain turnout and electoral results.

Analizando las reglas del juego. Características y efectos de las elecciones primarias presidenciales en Honduras

Objective/Context: What characteristics does the presidential primary system adopt? And what are the effects of the primaries on the Honduran political system? Honduras is among the precursor countries in Latin America to adopt the primary system as a mechanism of internal democracy within party structures to select their presidential, legislative, and municipal candidates. Although parties are not obliged to use primaries to select their candidates, the law mandates it for those political groups that have more than one internal movement. Thus, over the years, after eight experiences—in some political parties—the system has become established. The objective of this work is to analyze the origin of the presidential primary system in Honduras, its characteristics, and its effects on the political system. Methodology: This involves analyzing all primary elections held since their adoption to the present. Conclusions: the evidence indicates that, while the primary election system has allowed for the resolution of internal conflicts within parties, it has also contributed to the consolidation of political clientelism in the country. Originality: this work provides tools for analyzing the process of selecting presidential candidates in a political context of low programmatic competition, clientelism, and high personalism.

Changing Something So That Nothing Changes. The Decorative Reform of Mandatory Primary Elections in Peru

Objective/context: In 2019, promoted by President Martín Vizcarra, the Congress of the Republic of Peru sanctioned a law on mandatory primary elections for voters and political parties. However, the regulation was not implemented, given that it was suspended by the Legislative Branch for the general elections in 2021 and the regional elections in 2022. Methodology: This paper studies the reform process of mandatory, simultaneous, and open primaries (PASO, for its acronym in Spanish) in Peru and its counter-reform based on its suspension on two occasions (2021 and 2022). Twenty-three key actors were interviewed for this research, including congresspersons, ministers, electoral officials, and researchers, in addition to the revision of secondary sources and newspapers of legislative sessions. Conclusions: The paper concludes that PASO were a “decorative” reform, i.e., a law passed without the intention of implementing it. Its sanction was the product of a reformist coalition between civil society and the President of the nation, where the objectives of increasing popular support for President Vizcarra and the need to improve the legitimacy of the political system converged. The reform was resisted by congresspersons who formed two counter-reformist coalitions that suspended the PASO on two occasions. Originality: The research shows that these counter-reform coalitions are intrinsically linked to the atomization and personalization of the Peruvian party system, characterized by hyper-personalism and a lack of party structures. In addition, it generates theoretical contributions to studying the processes of reforms and counter-reforms in the context of institutional weakness.

La ficción de las primarias presidenciales en Bolivia

Objective/context: The system of presidential primaries was introduced into the Bolivian system in 2018 and was applied only once in 2019. This article aims to analyze the causes, characteristics, and effects of the compulsory and simultaneous primary system in Bolivia. Methodology: The characteristics of the party system, the method of selecting presidential candidates from 1982 to the present, the existing dynamics in the Legislature, the results of the 2019 primary elections, the current context, and regulations with a view to the 2025 general elections will be analyzed. Conclusions: This study shows that the presidential primaries were not on the agenda of the parties and were used by the ruling party to legitimize its presidential ticket. Therefore, using its legislative supermajority and control of other state organs, the primaries are introduced under the exclusive control of the leadership, which vertically decides whether they will be competitive or not. Originality: The detail and characteristics of this study offer a high degree of novelty and propose new elements for comparison and academic debate.

Email Campaigns That Suit the Candidate: Leveraging Automated Text Analysis to Increase Political Donations

This research employs automated text analysis to explore how textual characteristics in campaign emails affect monetary donations received by political candidates. The authors outline a new methodological framework that combines a machine learning approach for natural language processing with fixed effect regressions, thereby enabling researchers to study and interpret the impact of textual characteristics on donations while also accounting for individual differences across candidates and their email recipients. Using this framework, the authors analyze 764 emails from 19 candidates in the 2020 U.S. Democratic presidential primary election and evaluate how certain textual characteristics (e.g., empathy, vulnerability) in campaign emails affect donation outcomes. Identifying these effects would enable candidates to improve their email text and increase their donations by 9% on average. This research provides a practical and flexible roadmap for automated text analysis in situations where political campaigns do not have clear a priori hypotheses about which textual characteristics will be effective for them.

The (new) Democratic Party: ideology, values and strategies of sympathizers, members and delegates

ABSTRACT The PD has always been a composite and complex party, where different and sometimes opposing political cultures converge. The 2023 primary elections overturned the predictions by handing over the party leadership to Elly Schlein, interpreted by many as the beginning of a renewal process. However, it is precisely the logic of open primaries that brings into play different actors, bearers of values and strategies that are not always congruent. Will the PD be able to build a more homogeneous political culture and a coalition capable of facing the centre-right in the upcoming internal challenges? Does the change in the PD’s internal balances complicate or facilitate the formation of a competitive political offer? To answer these questions, we will investigate the differences between members, sympathisers and delegates to the National Assembly according to three analytical dimensions - self-placement on the left-right axis, value positioning with respect to some relevant issues, and the party’s coalitional perspectives - on the basis of the data collected during the 26 February 2023 primaries and in the context of the National Assembly on 12 March. First, we will deal with the process of selecting the PD leadership, discussing the rules of competition, the specificities of the two main candidates, and reconstructing the results obtained at the regional level during the phase of the democratic militants’ vote and that of the open primaries. The analysis of the data will provide us with solid elements on which we can then offer an overall discussion of the main results that emerged to understand, in terms of ideological orientations, values, and expectations on the party’s coalitional strategies, whether and to what extent Schlein’s election might be the prelude to an internal renewal or whether it might prefigure a new season of divisions.

How Does Primary Election Manipulation Affect the Selection of Women Candidates? Evidence from Malawi

How does manipulation of primary elections affect the selection of women candidates for parliament? The underrepresentation of women in politics is a well-researched global phenomenon. However, as most work focuses on general elections, we overlook the disadvantages that women face in the selection process. Specifically, primary elections often provide ample room for manipulation. We argue that manipulation skews electoral contests in favor of candidates with material and inter-personal resources, who are more likely to be men. We collect unique data via on-the-ground observation of 119 primary election rounds (featuring 316 aspirants) in Malawi’s 2019 parliamentary election and interview candidates to shed light on hitherto uninvestigated internal party primaries. We show that while women running in free and fair primaries were more likely to win nominations than men, their chances were substantially reduced where primaries were flawed. The quantitative findings are corroborated by qualitative accounts of the gendered effect of primary-day manipulation in party primaries. The results have implications for debates on descriptive representation, electoral integrity, and political parties.

Why aren’t more women on the gubernatorial ballot?

ABSTRACT Although women now occupy a record number of governorships and the number of women running for governor has increased significantly in the last four years, women still run for governor at lower rates than men. This study examines why there have been so few women gubernatorial candidates in primary elections using a dataset that includes every primary election or convention used to select major party gubernatorial nominees from 1978 through 2022. We examine four distinct areas to learn why so few women run: the potential candidate pool; candidates, parties, and voters as strategic actors; gubernatorial office structure; and major political, social, and cultural events and their impact on candidate pools. With some important differences between the Democratic and Republican parties, we find that each of these areas has a significant impact on whether women run for governor. Notably, we find that the pipeline is significant for Republican women during the period of study but not for Democratic women. Office structure, incumbent governors, and events such as those surrounding the 2016 election, also impact whether women run for governor. The results indicate that states can adopt changes to the structure of the governor’s office, and parties can adopt rules and facilitate norms that are favorable to women.

The instrumentalization of post-truth politics in Turkey: the case of the 2023 elections

ABSTRACT The global rise of populism has led to efforts to create an ‘alternative truth’ to support populist political aims. This is recently seen in Turkey in the use of post-truth political discourse by the AKP as a primary election campaign strategy. This study investigates how the AKP used post-truth politics to create an alternative truth about the opposition. The main argument of the article is that the AKP used instrumentalization of post-truth politics as a tool to reproduce biases and opinions about the opposition, which contributed to its entire strategy of winning the ballot box in the 2023 Turkish elections.