Price Of Fuels Research Articles

Forecasting of retail prices of liquid fuels in Poland

Motivation: In recent years, the prices of liquid fuels in Poland have been rising, negatively affecting the country’s economy and the daily life of its inhabitants. Consequently, there is a need for effective forecasting of prices in fuel markets, as this could enable entrepreneurs and consumers to make more informed decisions.Aim: The objective of the article was to forecast the retail prices of EU95 petrol and diesel fuel using causal-effect econometric models. The study uses historical data on fuel prices in Poland from 2007.Q1 to 2022.Q2 and the forecast period is to cover the next four quarters.Materials and methods: In order to identify the most significant variables influencing the retail prices of liquid fuels in Poland, the relevant literature was consulted. The final models were constructed using the ordinary least squares method and were validated through selected statistical tests.Results: Based on the constructed models, successful forecasts were made for EU95 gasoline and diesel oil. The obtained values were subjected to ex-post analysis, which resulted in an RMSPE of 3.15% and 4.79% respectively, indicating a positive outcome.

Fuel and electricity pricing and subsidies in the GCC states: recent developments

ABSTRACT This paper discusses recent developments for fossil fuel (FF) and electricity pricing and consumption in the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which together form the core of OPEC. These countries still subsidize FFs, albeit to varying degrees and UAE least so. The states have indicated a wish to reform their FF subsidies, which has led to a fiscal drain and lower than desired FF export revenues. Apart from UAE, none of these countries’ plans have however yet come to fruition. We discuss in some detail the political basis for such plans, and the factors making them more or less likely to be pursued and succeed. Long-term considerations, and pressures from budget balance, climate change and efficient economic allocation, all speak in favor of price reforms which will be overall beneficial to all the states. More modernistic views, taking over the countries’ political agendas, also push in the same direction. The paper also discusses similar recent developments in two comparator MENA countries, Iran (structurally most similar to the GCC countries), and Egypt (which has a more different economy and export base).

Changes in Fuel Prices and the Use of Public Transport: Insights from the European Union following the Invasion of Ukraine

Rising fuel prices are known to affect public transport (PT) demand. However, the impact of the oil market inflation and subsequent energy crisis following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine on mobility behaviour in Europe has received little attention. This study examines shifts in fuel prices and PT mobility across 25 Europe-an Union countries between February and May 2022. Weekly variations in PT mobility were correlated with diesel and gasoline prices, and a multiple linear regression was conducted to assess the influence of contextual factors in explaining variations in PT usage. The results indicate a significant increase in PT mobility across all countries after February 2022, which was positively associated with rising fuel prices. Approximately 84% of the variance in mobility was explained, with more pronounced increases observed in countries characterised by lower telecommuting prevalence, higher housing costs relative to household income, greater price differentials between gasoline and diesel, lower adoption of alternative fuels, and higher motorisation rates. These findings suggest that the surge in fuel prices, driven by the 2022 energy crisis, may have stimulated an increase in transit ridership.

Estimating Asymmetric Fuel Price Responses in Croatia

Abstract Background According to many studies, the transmission of oil prices to retail fuel prices is asymmetric. Fuel prices react faster if oil prices rise and more slowly if oil prices fall. Different standard econometric procedures lead to different results. The Linex approach, which is based on formulating the non-linear adjustment cost function, reflects the theory. It uses the generalised method of moments to estimate the reaction functions, which demands many observations. Objectives The paper investigates the price asymmetry in the Croatian retail fuel market using standard approaches and the Linex approach. Methods/Approach The simple and dynamic asymmetry models, error correction models, threshold autoregressive co-integration, and the Linex approach are used to verify the hypothesis of asymmetric reactions of gasoline and diesel prices in Croatia. Results The results using the standard methods are mixed, while the Linex approach indicates price asymmetry, the size of which is measured with the average price bias. The results correspond to other studies worldwide. Conclusions The authors' preferred Linex approach detects price asymmetries, even with large data samples with frequent changes in trends and volatilities. According to the approach, the question is not whether prices are formed asymmetrically but the size of the asymmetry.

Comparative Study on DI Diesel Engine Performance and Emissions using HCP microalgae biodiesel, Mahua oil biodiesel, Rubber seed oil biodiesel and Petroleum diesel

Abstract Energy consumption of the world is increasing hence the prices of fuels are increasing. Fossil fuels are the major source of energy but they are depleting in nature and they may exhaust in future. So we cannot depend on these sources and biofuels can be considered as substitute for fossil fuels, hence lot of researchers are doing extensive research on biofuels. So it is important to study the performance of different biofuels to find suitable one in terms of food crisis and better engine performance. Accordingly in this study the performance and emissions characteristics of Rubber seed oil, Mahua oil and microalgae oil biodiesels are studied. The results of this comparison study carried with HCP-B20, MO-B20 and RSO-B20 biodiesel blends indicates that the performance of HCP-B20 blend is better and emissions are lower compared to MO-B20 and RSO-B20 blends. The higher content of oxygen present in the microalgae biodiesel leads to higher rate of combustion reactions, in turn complete flame propagation and improved combustion. The BTE is lower with HCP-B20, MO-B20 and RSO-B20 compared to PD. Added advantage with this microalgae biofuel is, it is non-edible, it doesn’t require fertile land for its growth. So HCP-B20 blend may be viable for the commercial application.

Vegetable growing in Atyrau region: status and prospects

The aim is to substantiate the development of vegetable growing industry in the process of diversification of the economy of Atyrau region. In the methodological aspect, the research on vegetable crops cultivation was carried out on the basis of the deduction method, the consequence of which is the logical conclusion that vegetable production of farms in the region is environmentally safe. Methods of analysis and synthesis were used in determining the competitive parameters of production and the level of its intensification in the period of rising prices for fuels and lubricants. Results - the current state of the vegetable sector of the region, problems and potential opportunities were analyzed, the profitability of the vegetable subcomplex was shown. Recommendations aimed at expanding the scope of management, providing agricultural enterprises with timely and objective information important for making management decisions have been developed. Conclusions - it is necessary to constantly intensify research and development work on the development of new vegetable varieties, their approbation and introduction into practice, which will increase productivity at lower costs. Sectors should pay attention to the quality of vegetable products, their shelf life, useful properties for human health and adaptation to local climatic conditions. The authors note the feasibility of establishing workshops for processing biomass waste and rejected low-grade products. It is concluded that the vegetable market has a high capacity and is characterized by stable demand, which makes it attractive for investment. Investments are the decisive factor of technological, economic and social renewal of economic entities. In dynamics, the innovation activity of agricultural entities is increasing, although it is lower than in the economic system as a whole. The state should become the coordinator of innovation processes in the industry. There are all prerequisites for building up the competitive advantages of the industry.

Economic and environmental benefits of optimized waste transportation routes in Khulna

Urban transportation is a big source of pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Khulna City handles the waste of 1.23 million people daily, using Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicles (HDDV) that release major environmental pollutants. The current waste transportation routes lack proper planning, leading to extra fuel consumption and pollutant emissions. This study aims to reduce fuel consumption and socio-environmental costs by improving waste transportation routes. Present collection routes, collecting points, and the speed of 30 waste collector vehicles were tracked using GPS devices for ten months between July 2023 and April 2024. The network dataset was modified according to four types of waste collector vehicles. ArcGIS Pro was used to find the optimal paths and their lengths. Fuel usage and prices were estimated using simple fuel consumption rate calculations. The lengths of current and optimal routes were used in COPERT to measure pollutant emissions. The results show that improved routes lower fuel consumption costs by approximately USD 55.39 per day and CO2 emissions by about 38.242 tonnes per year. Reductions in CO, CH4, NMVOC, NO2, PM10, and PM2.5 were roughly 9.3%, 9.53%, 9.21%, 9.29%, 9.35%, and 9.3%, respectively. This study demonstrates a comprehensive approach for improving solid waste management covering both financial efficiency and environmental effects.

Energy, exergy, environment and economic (4E) analysis of PV/T module assisted vapor compression refrigeration system: An experimental study

Despite the rise in the prices of fossil fuels, the increase in their demand, and damaging the environment, a large part of the world's energy needs have been today met by fossil fuels. In this direction, interest in renewable energy sources has increased. Solar energy stands out among renewable energy sources because it is endless and clean. However, today, the use of solar energy is not used alone, but in combination with other thermal energy systems. In building applications, it is mostly used in heating, refrigeration, and HVAC systems, which have a high part in energy consumption. In this study, the solar energy and cooling system were not used separately as in previous studies but were used as a hybrid. The focus was on increasing the performance of both systems by operating them together. In this study, energy, exergy, thermoeconomic, and environmental analyses were applied to the PV/T-assisted vapor compression refrigeration system (PV/T-VCRS) at different storage temperatures (25 °C, 30 °C, and 35 °C). As a result, an 8.5 % lower surface temperature of the module in PV/T-VCRS 25 °C was measured compared to PV/T-VCRS 30 °C and 35 °C. In direct proportion to the module surface temperatures, 13 % better electrical efficiency was obtained in PV/T-VCRS 25 °C compared to 30 °C and 35 °C. The COP value increased by 15.46 % in PV/T-VCRS 25 °C compared to 30 °C and 35 °C. A 13 % improvement in exergy efficiency was observed in PV/T-VCRS 25 °C compared to 30 °C and 35 °C. The enviroeconomic parameter PV/T-VCRS is calculated as 15.17 ¢/h, 16.52 ¢/h, and 17.6 ¢/h for 25 °C, 30 °C and 35 °C. Another advantage of the system is that hot water is obtained at set temperatures. In PV/T-VCRS, 475 L, 300 L, and 210 L of hot water were obtained at 25 °C, 30 °C, and 35 °C, respectively. As a result, the performance of the PV/T-VCRS was good, with the added benefit of performing close to the performances when PV/T and VCRS were used separately.

Policy design for renewable energy development based on government support: A system dynamics model

Energy's centrality to life, work, and progress underscores its indispensable role in modern society. However, burgeoning energy consumption and finite resources have prompted concerns regarding resource sustainability. Consequently, renewable energy sources have gained prominence as alternatives, integral to societal advancement. Therefore, with the increase in the price of fossil fuels and its limitations and the attention to renewable energies, in this research, we decided to study the implementation processes of the development of this type of energy about possible future scenarios and possible implementation policies at the time of each scenario. Let's pay Considering the dynamic complexities of this issue over time and the involvement of government sectors in policy discussions and private sectors in the implementation and participation of these two groups simultaneously, using dynamic system modeling to design a dynamic model that economic aspects, technical, political and environmental aspects should be evaluated simultaneously in a causal-disability manner. To implement this model, two scenarios of government support and non-support for this industry were taken into consideration, and in each scenario two policies of workforce training and technology import for the use of private sector managers and in the best scenario two policies of tax exemption and reduction of technology import tariff for Government decision-making was reviewed. The results showed that when this industry enjoys government support, the speed of development of renewable energy projects can be greatly increased by importing equipment. Without governmental backing, expedited progress is achievable through skilled labor training and employment. Tax exemptions are the most effective policy tool for stimulating renewable energy project processes, production, and sales. The findings underscore the pivotal role of strategic governmental intervention in facilitating renewable energy development, which is essential for meeting energy demands while mitigating environmental impact.

How to implement the 2023 IMO GHG strategy? Insights on the importance of combining policy instruments and on the role of uncertainty

In its 2023 strategy for reducing GHG emissions from ships, the International Maritime Organization aims for the uptake of zero or near-zero GHG emissions technologies, fuels or energy to represent at least 5 %, striving for 10 %, of the energy used by 2030. Measures proposed to reach this target combine two kinds of policy instruments: an emission intensity standard and GHG emissions pricing. Proposals vary in terms of the design of the pricing scheme and the subsequent uncertainty that would affect the price signal. This paper assesses the extent to which emissions pricing effectively complements a more restrictive standard on the intensity of GHG emissions to boost transition to low-carbon vessels. Attention is paid to the role of the volatility of the price signal of GHG emissions and fuels prices. For this purpose, the paper applies a multiple real options model to the decision to renew a ship under various sources of uncertainty. Simulations carried out based on a case study show that the price signal effectively complements the more restrictive standard but that the decarbonization objectives are only achieved with a quite ambitious level of pricing. The role of the volatility of the price signal of GHG emissions appears negligible compared to other sources of volatility.

Supply Shocks and Fuel Price Fluctuations in Kenya

Supply Shocks and Fuel Price Fluctuations in Kenya

Simulating the Impact of Fuel Prices Rising and Direct Cash Assistance Compensation (BLT BBM) on Poverty in Indonesia

Crude oil prices have become volatile as geopolitical conflicts that occur in oil-exporting countries make the Indonesian government have to increase fuel prices and plan to provide cash transfers as compensation. This study analyzes the impact of fuel price rising and the direct cash assistance compensation program/Bantuan Langsung Tunai (BLT BBM) on poverty using micro data simulation. Poverty simulation is generated by modifying the poverty line (GK) and expenditure by utilizing leading indicators such as commodities inflation, household consumption expenditure growth, and population growth. The simulation results show that the presence of compensation can reduce the poverty rate compared to the absence of compensation. Without compensation, the poverty rate in September 2022 is predicted to be 10.36 percent (0.82 percent higher than in March 2022), while under the government's scheme where compensation is given to households receiving the Family Hope Program (PKH)/Non-Cash Food Assistance (BPNT), poverty is predicted to be 9.56 percent (0.02 percent higher than in March 2022). Exclusion error in the program of 55.35 percent in the lowest decile is an obstacle in poverty alleviation. Improvement and updating of the database of program recipients is needed so that the program can be more targeted to reach the poor.

Maritime Fuel Price Prediction of European Ports using Least Square Boosting and Facebook Prophet: Additional Insights from Explainable Artificial Intelligence

Prediction of bunker fuel spot prices at a port and understanding the dependence on key determinants is an arduous and challenging activity. The present work strives to analyze the temporal spectrum of daily spot prices of Very Low Sulphur fuel Oil (VLSFO), a critical bunker fuel, in five European Ports, Amsterdam, Antwerp, Gothenburg, Hamburg, and Rotterdam. The lack of prior research in the allied domain has motivated to undertake the modeling of VLSFO spot prices through the lens of applied predictive analytics. The Least Square Boosting (LSBoost) and Facebook Prophet algorithms are used to draw forecasts in multivariate framework leveraging constructs related to the same fuel prices at different ports, different fuel prices at the same ports, economic indicator, etc. The dynamics have been explicitly examined during the Russia-Ukraine military conflict. Additionally, Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) frameworks have been used to demystify the influence of the chosen explanatory variables at a granular scale. The overall findings espouse the effectiveness of the predictive framework in accurately estimating spot prices of VLSFO in any of the selected ports, and the same heavily depends on VLSFO prices at different ports.

Solar Charging Station for Easy Bikes in Bangladesh: Validation and Post-Model Evaluation

The significance of renewable sources of energy is enormous in reducing the demand, use, and also price of fossil fuels following recent advances in related technologies allowing for the development of solar-powered cars. The number of users of electric vehicles (EVs) is increasing rapidly day by day all over the world. Due to the growing number of users of EVs, our existing electrical network is facing a lack of electric power because of the overload. As the number of electric and hybrid vehicles increases, efficient and integrated charging stations must be developed to solve the overload issues in existing networks. To address this, the paper proposes using onsite renewable energy sources such as solar energy and existing networks to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of charging stations. Combining photovoltaic with battery storage in a grid-connected system ensures the reliable functioning of the hybrid charging station. The paper focuses on the post-model evaluation, charging station distribution and location, business model, limitations, and software simulation and corresponding calculation. The results show that hybrid-powered charging stations can be economical, dependable, and efficient enough to fulfill the various demands of electric vehicle loads. GUB JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING, Vol 10(1), 2023 P 1-9

Exploitation of Mineral Resources in Conditions of Volatile Energy Prices: Technical and Economic Analysis of Low-Quality Deposits

In mining projects and production operations, energy carrier costs (fuel, electricity) constitute the primary component of variable costs. This study outlines a methodology for projecting operating costs in a surface mine or quarry in order to find the optimal configuration of mining equipment to extract low-grade secondary deposits, taking into account volatile energy prices. For illustration, the operating costs of five variants of mining equipment deployed to mine low-grade products were analysed, with the price of energy and fuels being the key cost component and the main risk factor. There were differences between the initial investment outlays and operating costs involved in all analysed variants, whilst the starting point for estimating the technical and economic parameters involved in the respective solutions was the predefined configuration of the mining equipment. Further, the decision to commence or discontinue mining operations could be supported by the simulation procedure based on the economic model. The results provided valuable insights into the cost-effectiveness of low-grade deposit extraction scenarios, depending on the projected unit costs of fuels and energy.

Energy-Efficient Electric Cooking and Sustainable Energy Transitions

Transitioning to clean cooking fuels is not only part of achieving SDG7 but also makes a significant contribution to mitigating climate change by reducing carbon emissions. Research projects and pilots across a number of countries in Africa and South Asia have been exploring the suitability and energy performance of different cooking appliances and fuels. The paper presents the first statistical analysis across these multiple datasets to determine the range of energy required to cook dishes using different technologies and fuels. The paper draws out distinctions between African and Asian dishes, notably the impact of energy-intensive dishes prepared mostly in Africa. The paper demonstrates that the standard efficiency-based approaches to comparing the performance of stoves are not appropriate to modern electric cooking devices, so a novel alternative approach based on specific energy consumption and termed energy ratios is developed. Charcoal stoves are shown to use 15 times as much energy as electric pressure cookers (EPCs) to cook African dishes, and a detailed review of how the EPC works explains why this should be. Energy ratios provide a basis for estimating carbon emission reductions associated with transitioning to modern cooking fuels and also for estimating household cooking costs. Fuel and electricity prices from studies show that the cost of cooking with an EPC can be only 20% of the cost of cooking with charcoal, which highlights the potential for modern, energy-efficient electric cooking devices to defy the conventional wisdom of the energy ladder.

Perceived Effect of Fuel Price Hike on Farming Households in Imo State

The study assessed the perceived effect of fuel price hike among farming households in Imo State. The study described the socio-economic characteristics of farming households in Imo State; ascertained farming households’ awareness of fuel price hike; identified the perceived causes of fuel price hike; ascertained the perceived effect of fuel price hike on farming activities among farming households in Imo State and identified the coping strategies used among farming households to cushion the effect of fuel price hike in Imo State. A multi-stage sampling was adopted in selecting 120 farming households for the study. Primary data were used for the study using a structured questionnaire. Data analysis employed percentages, means, frequencies and mean score analysis. The result on the awareness of the effect of fuel price hike among farming household showed that all the farmers were aware (100%). farming households perceived fuel subsidy removal (x̄=3.7), instability in government policies (x̄ =3.5), high cost of importation of refined fuel (x̄ =3.4), Non-functional of local refineries (x̄ =3.3) among others as the causes of fuel price hike. Farming households perceived increased cost of transportation for farm inputs (x̄ =3.9), Increased cost of production/farming activities like ploughing, clearing etc(x̄=3.9) Increased price of farm produce (x̄ =4.0), Increased food prices (x̄=4.0), decreased agricultural productivity (x̄=3.4), Limited access to agricultural machinery and equipment,( x̄ =3.3), increased in transportation of farm produce to the market (x̄ =3.4) as the effects of fuel price hike. The highest ranking coping strategies used by farming households were trekking some distances to reduce the cost of transportation (Ranked 1st), Minimising spending habits due to fuel price increase (2nd), Explored the use of alternative energy sources e.g solar panels for irrigation, charcoal, firewood (3rd). Explore the possibility of collective purchasing or bulk buying with others to reduce individual costs (4th) and skipping meals (5th). Educational level, household size and access to credit were the significant socioeconomic variables influencing farming households’ perceived effect of fuel price hike. The study therefore recommends that Nigeria's crude oil should be refined domestically so that the importation of refined fuel can be banned which will reduce the cost of refining and pump price.

Analysis of the Relationship between Fuel Prices and Vehicle Numbers in Urban Road Networks

The article presents an analysis of the relationship between the price of fuel and diesel oil and traffic intensity in the city. First, an analysis of fuel prices was prepared over fourteen months and the number of passenger cars and trucks per day was examined at the same time. From the results obtained, the highest, lowest, and average values were obtained. On this basis, it was noticed that when the price of fuel was the highest, there were fewer passenger cars, but when the price dropped, the number of vehicles increased. Another conclusion from the analysis is that when the price of fuel dropped even more than the average, there were no more cars. Based on the analysis, it was noticed that the number of vehicles may vary by up to 8000 passenger vehicles per day within one intersection. Then, a microsimulation model was performed in the PTV Vissim program to check the amount of pollution generated by vehicles in three variants: the highest, lowest, and average traffic intensities. The results show that the average daily CO pollution at the moment of the lowest traffic intensity is 15,000 g lower than the average, so the high price of fuel causes much less pollution for the consumer.

Pass-through of oil prices to Brazilian inflation: An analysis between 2014 and 2023

ABSTRACT The price of fuels, and consequently, the price of oil, is one of the elements of historical relevance for the general price level that the Brazilian population faces, given the country’s dependency on the road transportation mode for product distribution and the potential ripple effects that the oil price naturally exerts on other sectors of the economy. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to quantify the influence of oil prices on the overall price index of the Brazilian economy for the period between January 2014 and May 2023. To achieve this objective, a model based on a hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve was constructed, and the estimation was performed using Structural Vector Error Correction (SVEC) models. As a result, we find that, although oil prices are not the most significant drivers of inflation, their influence is present, positive, and persists for a considerable number of periods.

Implementation of Text Mining to Detect Emotions of Fuel Price Increase Using BERT-LSTM Method

Fuel is essential in everyday life to be used as a means of transportation, which generally uses fuel oil. In early April 2022, there was an issue that caused an uproar in Indonesian society: rising fuel prices. Based on the problems described, this research uses emotion classification with the BERT and LSTM methods using social media data, such as YouTube, to classify types of emotions based on community responses to government decisions. The highest results were obtained when oversampling was used, with an accuracy of 95%, while without oversampling, the accuracy was only 47%. In the experiments that have been carried out, it turns out that using the oversampling method and the BERT method for emotion classification will cause a reduction in accuracy for the test section.