Prevention Paradox Research Articles

Preventive Paradox? Postoperative Outcomes After Risk-Reducing Mastectomy and Direct-to-Implant Breast Reconstruction

BackgroundRisk-reducing mastectomy (RRM) with direct-to-implant (DTI) breast reconstruction is becoming increasingly important in breast cancer prevention. While the oncological benefits of RRM-DTI are well documented, there is a paucity of studies investigating its perioperative safety. MethodsThe ACS-NSQIP database (2008-2022) was queried to identify all patients who underwent RRM-DTI. Outcomes of interest included 30-day occurrence of reoperation, readmission, and surgical and medical complications. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with postoperative complications. ResultsA total of 1019 patients were included, with a mean age and BMI of 42.8 ± 10.9 years and 25.7 ± 5.8 kg/m², respectively. Complications occurred in 142 (14.0%) cases, with 103 (10.1%) reoperations and 51 (5.0%) readmissions. 62 (6.3%) surgical complications were recorded, the majority of which were superficial incisional infection (n = 19; 1.9%) and organ space infections (n = 19; 1.9%). Medical complications were rare (n = 13; 1.3%). Multivariable analyses revealed that higher BMI was significantly associated with any (OR:1.06, P < .0001), surgical (OR:1.08, P < .0001), and medical complications (OR:1.08, P = .04). Patients with bleeding disorders were at a significantly higher risk of any complications (OR:5.5, P = .03), while outpatient setting (OR:1.9, P = .03) and corticosteroid use (OR:6.6, P = .01) were identified as independent predictors of surgical complications. ConclusionThe risk of adverse events following RRM-DTI should not be underestimated, with a 30-day complication rate of 14%. Higher BMI, bleeding disorders, outpatient setting, and corticosteroid use were identified as risk factors. These findings underscore the need for thorough preoperative risk stratification, patient counseling, and health optimization to optimize surgical outcomes.

Can life events predict first-time suicide attempts? A nationwide longitudinal study.

The prevention paradox describes circumstances in which the majority of cases with a suicide attempt come from a population of low or moderate risk, and only a few from a 'high-risk' group. The assumption is that a low base rate in combination with multiple causes makes it impossible to identify a high-risk group with all suicide attempts. The best way to study events such as first-time suicide attempts and their causes is to collect event history data. Administrative registers were used to identify a group at higher risk of suicidal behaviour within a population of six national birth cohorts (N = 300,000) born between 1980 and 1985 and followed from age 15 to 29 years. Estimation of risk parameters is based on the discrete-time logistic odds-ratio model. Lifetime prevalence was 4.5% for first-time suicide attempts. Family background and family child-rearing factors were predicative of later first-time suicide attempts. A young person's diagnosis with psychiatric or neurodevelopmental disorders (ADHD, anxiety, depression, PTSD), and being a victim of violence or sex offences contributed to the explanatory model. Contrary to the prevention paradox, results suggest that it is possible to identify a discrete high-risk group (<12%) among the population from whom two thirds of all first-time suicide attempts occur, but one third of observed suicide attempts derived from low- to moderate-risk groups. Findings confirm the need for a combined strategy of universal, targeted and indicated prevention approaches in policy development and in strategic and practice responses, and some promising prevention strategies are presented.

Harm-to-self from gambling: A national study of Australian adults.

Understanding how gambling harm is distributed is essential to inform effective harm reduction measures. This first national Australian study of gambling harm-to-self examined the extent, distribution, risk factors, and health related quality of life (HRQoL) impacts of this harm. ARandom Digit Dialling sample of 15,000 Australian adults was weighted to key population variables. Key measures included the Gambling Harms Scale-10 (GHS-10), PGSI, SF-6D, gambling behaviours, and demographics. Analyses included ordinal logistic regression. Amongst gamblers, 14.7% reported harm on the GHS-10, including 1.9% reporting high-level harm. While high-level harm occurred mainly in the problem gambling group (77.3%), other PGSI groups accounted for most of the more prevalent low (98.5%) and moderate (87.2%) harms reported. Proximal predictors of greater harm were use of online gambling and more frequent gambling on electronic gaming machines (EGMs), race betting sports betting, poker, skin gambling, scratchies, and loot box purchasing. Distal predictors were being younger, male, single, Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander, and speaking a non-English language at home. At the population level, the greatest aggregate HRQoL impacts were amongst lower-risk gamblers, confirming the results of other studies regarding the 'prevention paradox'. The distribution of harm across gambler risk groups indicates the need for preventive measures, not just interventions for problem gambling. Reducing harm requires modifying product features that amplify their risk, especially for EGMs, race betting and sports betting that are both inherently risky and widely used. Gambling harm exacerbates health disparities for disadvantaged and vulnerable groups, requiring targeted resources and support.

National burden of gambling in Japan: an estimation from an online-based cross-sectional investigation and national epidemiological survey

BackgroundGambling is a popular leisure activity in many countries, often expected to boost regional economies. Nevertheless, its negative impacts remain a significant concern. Gambling disorder is recognized as the most severe consequence; however, even non- or low-risk gamblers may also face negative impacts. This study aimed to estimate the number of Japanese gamblers experiencing gambling-related harm (GRH) and its distribution across six life domains, financial, relational, emotional, health, social and other aspects, based on the severity of their problem gambling risk.MethodsThis cross-sectional study relied on an online survey conducted between August 5 and 11, 2020. Participants aged 20 years and above, who engaged in gambling during 2019 were recruited via a market research company. The survey assessed the prevalence of GRH 72 items among four gambler risk groups (non-problem, low-, moderate-, and high-risk), as categorized by the Problem Gambling Severity Index. The data was adjusted for population weighting using representative national survey data: the 2017 Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions and the 2017 Epidemiological Survey on Gambling Addictions.ResultsOut of the 28,016 individuals invited to the survey, 6,124 participated in the screening, 3,113 in the main survey, and 3,063 provided valid responses. After adjusting the survey data, it was estimated that 39.0 million (30.8%) of Japan’s 126.8 million citizens gambled in 2019. Among them, 4.44 million (11.4%) experienced financial harm, 2.70 million (6.9%) health harm, 2.54 million (6.5%) emotional harm, 1.31 million (3.4%) work/study harm, 1.28 million (3.3%) relationship harm, and 0.46 million (1.2%) other harm. Although high-risk gamblers experienced severe harm at the individual level, over 60% of gamblers who experienced GRHs were non- and low-risk gamblers, with the exception of other harm, at the population level.ConclusionsThe study highlighted the prevention paradox of gambling in Japan. While national gambling policies primarily focus on the prevention and intervention for high-risk gamblers, a more effective approach would involve minimizing GRH across the entire population.

Distributions of alcohol use and alcohol-caused death and disability in Canada: Defining alcohol harm density functions and new perspectives on the prevention paradox.

The aims of this study were to examine the distribution of alcohol use and to define 'harm density functions' representing distributions of alcohol-caused health harm in Canada, by sex, towards better understanding which groups of drinkers experience the highest aggregate harms. This was an epidemiological modeling study using survey and administrative data on alcohol exposure, death and disability and risk relationships from epidemiological meta-analyses. This work took place in Canada, 2019. Canadians aged 15 years or older participated. Measures included modeled life-time mean daily alcohol use in grams of pure alcohol (ethanol) per day, alcohol-caused deaths and alcohol-caused disability-adjusted life-years. As a life-time average, more than half of Canadians aged 15+ (62.8% females, 46.9% males) use fewer than 10g of pure alcohol per day (g/day). By volume, the top 10% of the population consume 45.9% of the total ethanol among males and 47.1% of the total ethanol among females. The remaining 90% of the population experience a slim majority of alcohol-caused deaths (males 55.3%, females 46.9%). Alcohol harm density functions compose the size of the using population and the risk experienced at each volume level to show that the population-level harm experienced is highest for males at 25 g/day and females at 13 g/day. Almost 50% of alcohol use in Canada is concentrated among the highest 10% of drinkers, but more than half of the alcohol-caused deaths in Canada in 2019 were experienced by the bottom 90% of the population by average volume, providing evidence for the prevention paradox. New alcohol harm density functions provide insight into the aggregate health harm experienced across the mean alcohol use spectrum and may therefore be used to help determine where alcohol policies should be targeted for highest efficacy.

The Seeming Paradox of Prevention: Dispute Mitigation by Multilateral Development Banks

The Seeming Paradox of Prevention: Dispute Mitigation by Multilateral Development Banks

Environmental sustainability and the paradox of prevention

The carbon emissions of global healthcare activities make up 4%–5% of total world emissions, with the majority coming from industrialised countries. The solution to healthcare carbon reduction in these countries,...

Reply to Obegi, J.H. Distinguishing Prevention from Treatment in Suicide Prevention. Comment on "Turner et al. The Paradox of Suicide Prevention. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 14983".

One of the aims of our paper "The Paradox of Suicide Prevention" is to promote greater discourse on suicide prevention, with a particular focus on the mental health models used for the identification of, and interventions with, individuals who come into contact with tertiary mental health services [...].

Distinguishing Prevention from Treatment in Suicide Prevention. Comment on Turner et al. The Paradox of Suicide Prevention. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 14983.

In "The Paradox of Suicide Prevention", Turner and colleagues made an important contribution: they applied Rose's prevention paradox to suicide prevention efforts in healthcare systems. However, in doing so, they conflated prevention and treatment and did not distinguish suicide from suicidality. Their views may confuse efforts to design and implement clinical pathways for preventing suicide.

Prevention Paradox and the Case for Universal Alcohol Policies

Prevention Paradox and the Case for Universal Alcohol Policies

Cervical Cancer Prevention Paradox: Unveiling Screening Barriers and Solutions

Cervical Cancer Prevention Paradox: Unveiling Screening Barriers and Solutions

Why public health cannot be led by doctors only.

Why public health cannot be led by doctors only.

The Paradox of Suicide Prevention.

The recognition that we cannot use risk stratification (high, medium, low) to predict suicide or to allocate resources has led to a paradigm shift in suicide prevention efforts. There are challenges in adapting to these new paradigms, including reluctance of clinicians and services to move away from traditional risk categorisations; and conversely, the risk of a pendulum swing in which the focus of care swings from one approach to determining service priority and focus (e.g., diagnosis, formulation, risk and clinical care) to a new focus (e.g., suicide specific and non-clinical care), potentially supplanting the previous approach. This paper argues that the Prevention Paradox provides a useful mental model to support a shift in paradigm, whilst maintaining a balanced approach that incorporates new paradigms within the effective aspects of existing ones. The Prevention Paradox highlights the seemingly paradoxical situation where the greatest burden of disease or death is caused by those at low to moderate risk due their larger numbers. Current planning frameworks and resources do not support successful or sustainable adoption of these new approaches, leading to missed opportunities to prevent suicidal behaviours in healthcare. Adopting systems approaches to suicide prevention, such as the Zero Suicide Framework, implemented in a large mental health service in Australia and presented in this paper as a case study, can support a balanced approach of population- and individual-based suicide prevention efforts. Results demonstrate significant reductions in re-presentations with suicide attempts for consumers receiving this model of care; however, the increasing numbers of placements compromise the capacity of clinical teams to complete all components of standardised pathway of care. This highlights the need for review of resource planning frameworks and ongoing evaluations of the critical aspects of the interventions.

Web-based exercise therapy for the treatment of depression

Web-based exercise therapy for the treatment of depression

Wearing Face Mask for COVID-19 Prevention: A timely example of Prevention Paradox

A "prevention paradox," according to Thompson, is a type of prevention that has many benefits for the entire population but may not be as beneficial to each individual as it is to the entire community. COVID-19 is one of the most mysterious developing viruses in history, capable of being transmitted from one person to another mostly through breathing. If we do not follow specific advice, such as wearing a face mask, we will all become infected very rapidly. To save the lives of a small percentage of the population, millions of people should wear face masks.

Gambling Harm and the Prevention Paradox in Massachusetts

Gambling Harm and the Prevention Paradox in Massachusetts

Cardiovascular disease preventive medication dispensing for almost every New Zealander 65years and over: a preventive treatment paradox?

To describe the dispensing of cardiovascular disease (CVD) preventive medications among older New Zealanders with and without prior CVD or diabetes. New Zealanders aged ≥65years in 2013 were identified using anonymised linkage of national administrative health databases. Dispensing of blood pressure lowering (BPL), lipid lowering (LL) or antithrombotic (AT) medications, was documented, stratified by age and by history of CVD, diabetes, or neither. Of the 593,549 people identified, 32% had prior CVD, 14% had diabetes (of whom half also had prior CVD) and 61% had neither diagnosis. For those with prior CVD, between 79-87% were dispensed BPL and 73-79% were dispensed AT medications, across all age groups. In contrast, LL dispensing was lower than either BPL or AT in every age group, falling from 75% at age 65-69years to 43% at 85+ years. For people with diabetes, BPL and LL dispensing was similar to those with prior CVD, but AT dispensing was approximately 20% lower. Among people without prior CVD or diabetes, both BPL and AT dispensing increased with age (from 39% and 17% at age 65-69 years to 56% and 35% at 85+ years respectively), whereas LL dispensing was 26-31% across the 65-84year age groups, falling to 17% at 85+ years. The much higher dispensing of BPL and AT compared to LL medications with increasing age suggests a preventive treatment paradox for older people, with the medications most likely to cause adverse effects being dispensed most often.

Prevention paradox between stroke and multiple potential risk factors using data from a population-based cohort study

Previous studies have found the prevention paradox in the association between stroke events and a single specific risk factor, indicating that a population-based strategy may be more effective than a high-risk-based strategy for prevention. We tested the hypothesis that the prevention paradox does not apply when focusing on multiple potential risk factors simultaneously. The study cohort included 9051 individuals from Japan aged 40–89 years. The time-dependent Cox proportional-hazards models were used to identify the primary risk factor associated with stroke onset. We classified participants based on risk factors in two distinct ways: 1) classifying the high-risk group participants according to a single specific risk factor that had a large association with stroke in both sexes and all ages and 2) classifying the high-risk group participants according to 1–3 risk factor(s) including hypertension, hyperglycemia, and/or dyslipidemia. Then, we compared the proportions of the total number of participants who developed stroke in both groups to assess the prevention paradox. We found that hypertension was a primary risk factor for stroke incidence, regardless of sex and age. The percentage of patients with a single specific risk of and developed stroke was 46%–63%, while the percentage of patients with 1–3 risk factor(s) was 71–83%. This finding leads to the conclusion that the prevention paradox does not hold when multiple stroke risk factors were associated, suggesting that a high-risk-based strategy that focuses on patients with multiple risk factors may be more effective in preventing strokes.

‘Take the Pill, It Is Only Fair’! Contributory Fairness as an Answer to Rose’s Prevention Paradox

Abstract One proposal to significantly reduce cardiovascular disease is the idea of administering a ‘polypill’—a combination of drugs that reduce the risk of heart disease and carry few side effects—to everyone over the age of 55. Despite their promise, population strategies like the polypill have not been well-accepted. In this article, I defend the polypill (and consequently, other similar population strategies) by appealing to fairness. The argument focuses on the need to fairly distribute the costs to individuals. While the fact that population strategies like the polypill impose minor costs on everyone has primarily been used to criticize such strategies, I argue that it gives us a reason to support them. I argue that implementing a population strategy with the polypill contributes to the public good of ‘health system capacity’. I then explain that public goods have widely accepted obligations: they carry an obligation to fairly distribute the costs of the goods and prevent free-riding. Thus, we have at least one pro tanto moral reason to implement the polypill. As such, this article challenges the current literature on the topic, which has largely held adopting population strategies like the polypill to be unjustifiable.

SARS-CoV-2: An Empirical Investigation of Rose's Population-based Logic.

Geoffrey Rose's paper "Sick Individuals, Sick Populations" highlights the counterintuitive finding that the largest share of morbidity arises from populations engaging in low- to moderate-risk behavior. Scholars refer to this finding as the prevention paradox. We examine whether this logic applies to SARS-CoV-2 infected persons considered low to moderate risk. We conducted a population-representative survey and sero-surveillance study for SARS-CoV-2 among adults in Orange County, California. Participants answered questions about health behaviors and provided a finger-pin-prick sample from 10 July to 16 August 2020. Of the 2979 adults, those reporting low- and moderate-risk behavior accounted for between 78% and 92% of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Asymptomatic individuals, as well as persons with low and moderate scores for self-reported likelihood of having had SARS-CoV-2, accounted for the majority of infections. Our findings support Rose's logic, which encourages public health measures among persons who self-identify as unlikely to have SARS-CoV-2. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B860.