Pretreatment Carcinoembryonic Antigen Research Articles

Prediction of pathological complete response and prognosis in locally advanced rectal cancer.

Colorectal cancer is currently the third most common malignant tumor and the second leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) is standard for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). Except for pathological examination after resection, it is not known exactly whether LARC patients have achieved pathological complete response (pCR) before surgery. To date, there are no clear clinical indicators that can predict the efficacy of nCRT and patient outcomes. To investigate the indicators that can predict pCR and long-term outcomes following nCRT in patients with LARC. Clinical data of 128 LARC patients admitted to our hospital between September 2013 and November 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were categorized into pCR and non-pCR groups. Univariate analysis (using the χ 2 test or Fisher's exact test) and logistic multivariate regression analysis were used to study clinical predictors affecting pCR. The 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) rates were calculated using Kaplan-Meier analysis, and differences in survival curves were assessed with the log-rank test. Univariate analysis showed that pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level, lymphocyte-monocyte ratio (LMR), time interval between neoadjuvant therapy completion and total mesorectal excision, and tumor size were correlated with pCR. Multivariate results showed that CEA ≤ 5 ng/mL (P = 0.039), LMR > 2.73 (P = 0.023), and time interval > 10 wk (P = 0.039) were independent predictors for pCR. Survival analysis demonstrated that patients in the pCR group had significantly higher 5-year DFS rates (94.7% vs 59.7%, P = 0.002) and 5-year OS rates (95.8% vs 80.1%, P = 0.019) compared to the non-pCR group. Tumor deposits (TDs) were significantly correlated with shorter DFS (P = 0.002) and OS (P < 0.001). Pretreatment CEA, LMR, and time interval contribute to predicting nCRT efficacy in LARC patients. Achieving pCR demonstrates longer DFS and OS. TDs correlate with poor prognosis.

Constructing a prognostic model for colorectal cancer with synchronous liver metastases after preoperative chemotherapy: a study based on SEER and an external validation cohort.

The combination of preoperative chemotherapy and surgical treatment has been shown to significantly enhance the prognosis of colorectal cancer with liver metastases (CRLM) patients. Nevertheless, as a result of variations in clinicopathological parameters, the prognosis of this particular group of patients differs considerably. This study aimed to develop and evaluate Cox proportional risk regression model and competing risk regression model using two patient cohorts. The goal was to provide a more precise and personalized prognostic evaluation system. We collected information on individuals who had a pathological diagnosis of colorectal cancer between 2000 and 2019 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Database. We obtained data from patients who underwent pathological diagnosis of colorectal cancer and got comprehensive therapy at the hospital between January 1, 2010, and June 1, 2022. The SEER data collected after screening according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria were separated into two cohorts: a training cohort (training cohort) and an internal validation cohort (internal validation cohort), using a random 1:1 split. Subgroup Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival analyses were conducted on each of the three groups. The data that received following screening from the hospital were designated as the external validation cohort. The subsequent variables were chosen for additional examination: age, gender, marital status, race, tumor site, pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen level, tumor size, T stage, N stage, pathological grade, number of tumor deposits, perineural invasion, number of regional lymph nodes examined, and number of positive regional lymph nodes. The primary endpoint was median overall survival (mOS). In the training cohort, we conducted univariate Cox regression analysis and utilized a stepwise regression approach, employing the Akaike information criterion (AIC) to select variables and create Cox proportional risk regression models. We evaluated the accuracy of the model using calibration curve, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), and area under curve (AUC). The effectiveness of the models was assessed using decision curve analysis (DCA). To evaluate the non-cancer-related outcomes, we analyzed variables that had significant impacts using subgroup cumulative incidence function (CIF) and Gray's test. These analyses were used to create competing risk regression models. Nomograms of the two models were constructed separately and prognostic predictions were made for the same patients in SEER database. This study comprised a total of 735 individuals. The mOS of the training cohort, internal validation cohort, and QDU cohort was 55.00months (95%CI 46.97-63.03), 48.00months (95%CI 40.65-55.35), and 68.00months (95%CI 54.91-81.08), respectively. The multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that age, N stage, presence of perineural infiltration, number of tumor deposits and number of positive regional lymph nodes were identified as independent prognostic risk variables (p < 0.05). In comparison to the conventional TNM staging model, the Cox proportional risk regression model exhibited a higher C-index. After controlling for competing risk events, age, N stage, presence of perineural infiltration, number of tumor deposits, number of regional lymph nodes examined, and number of positive regional lymph nodes were independent predictors of the risk of cancer-specific mortality (p < 0.05). We have developed a prognostic model to predict the survival of patients with synchronous CRLM who undergo preoperative chemotherapy and surgery. This model has been tested internally and externally, confirming its accuracy and reliability.

Conditional survival analysis and real-time prognosis prediction in stage III T3–T4 colon cancer patients after surgical resection: a SEER database analysis

BackgroundConditional survival (CS) takes into consideration the duration of survival post-surgery and can provide valuable additional insights. The aim of this study was to investigate the risk factors associated with reduced one-year postoperative conditional survival in patients diagnosed with stage III T3–T4 colon cancer and real-time prognosis prediction. Furthermore, we aim to develop pertinent nomograms and predictive models.MethodsClinical data and survival outcomes of patients diagnosed with stage III T3–T4 colon cancer were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, covering the period from 2010 to 2019. Patients were divided into training and validation cohorts at a ratio of 7:3. The training set consisted of a total of 11,386 patients for conditional overall survival (cOS) and 11,800 patients for conditional cancer-specific survival (cCSS), while the validation set comprised 4876 patients for cOS and 5055 patients for cCSS. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were employed to identify independent risk factors influencing one-year postoperative cOS and cCSS. Subsequently, predictive nomograms for cOS and cCSS at 2-year, 3-year, 4-year, and 5-year intervals were constructed based on the identified prognostic factors. The performance of these nomograms was rigorously assessed through metrics including the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and the area under curve (AUC) derived from the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Clinical utility was further evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA).ResultsA total of 18,190 patients diagnosed with stage III T3–T4 colon cancer were included in this study. Independent risk factors for one-year postoperative cOS and cCSS included age, pT stage, pN stage, pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels, receipt of chemotherapy, perineural invasion (PNI), presence of tumor deposits, the number of harvested lymph nodes, and marital status. Sex and tumor site were significantly associated with one-year postoperative cOS, while radiation therapy was notably associated with one-year postoperative cCSS. In the training cohort, the developed nomogram demonstrated a C-index of 0.701 (95% CI, 0.711–0.691) for predicting one-year postoperative cOS and 0.701 (95% CI, 0.713–0.689) for one-year postoperative cCSS. Following validation, the C-index remained robust at 0.707 (95% CI, 0.721–0.693) for one-year postoperative cOS and 0.700 (95% CI, 0.716–0.684) for one-year postoperative cCSS. ROC and calibration curves provided evidence of the model's stability and reliability. Furthermore, DCA underscored the nomogram’s superior clinical utility.ConclusionsOur study developed nomograms and predictive models for postoperative stage III survival in T3–T4 colon cancer with the aim of accurately estimating conditional survival. Survival bias in our analyses may lead to overestimation of survival outcomes, which may limit the applicability of our findings.

Oncological outcomes after a pathological complete response following total neoadjuvant therapy or chemoradiotherapy for high-risk locally advanced rectal cancer in the RAPIDO trial

BackgroundA pathological complete response (pCR) following chemoradiation (CRT) or short-course radiotherapy (scRT) leads to a favourable prognosis in patients with rectal cancer. Total neo-adjuvant therapy (TNT) doubles the pCR rate, but it is unknown whether oncological outcomes remain favourable and whether the same characteristics are associated with pCR as after CRT. MethodsComparison between patients with pCR in the RAPIDO trial in the experimental [EXP] (scRT, chemotherapy, surgery, as TNT) and standard-of-care treatment [STD] (CRT, surgery, postoperative chemotherapy depending on hospital policy) groups. Primary and secondary outcomes were time-to-recurrence (TTR), overall survival (OS) and association between patient, tumour, and treatment characteristics and pCR. ResultsAmong patients with a resection within six months after preoperative treatment, 120/423 (28%) [EXP] and 57/398 (14%) [STD] achieved a pCR. Following pCR, 5-year cumulative TTR and OS rates in the EXP and STD arms were 8% vs. 7% (hazard ratio 1.04, 95%CI 0.32–3.38) and 94% vs. 93% (hazard ratio 1.41, 95%CI 0.51–3.92), respectively. Besides the EXP treatment (odds ratio 2.70, 95%CI 1.83–3.97), pre-treatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) <5, pre-treatment tumour size <40 mm and cT2 were associated with pCR. Distance from the anal verge was the only characteristic with a statistically significant difference in association with pCR between the EXP and STD treatment (Pinteraction=0.042). pCR rates did not increase with prolonged treatment time. ConclusionsThe doubled pCR rate of TNT compared to CRT results in similar oncological outcomes. Characteristics associated with pCR are the EXP treatment, normal CEA, and small tumour size.

A prognostic nomogram integrating carcinoembryonic antigen levels for predicting overall survival in elderly patients with stage II-III colorectal cancer.

With the aging of the population, colorectal surgeons will have to face more elderly colorectal cancer (CRC) patients in the future. We aim to analyze independent risk factors affecting overall survival in elderly (age ≥65 years) patients with stage II-III CRC and construct a nomogram to predict patient survival. A total of 3,016 elderly CRC patients with stage II-III were obtained from the SEER database. Univariate Cox regression and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analyses were used to screen independent prognostic factors, and a survival prediction nomogram was constructed based on the results. The consistency index (C-index), decision curve analysis (DCA), Akaike information criterion (AIC), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) were used to compare the predictive ability between the nomogram and tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage system. All patients were classified into high-risk and low-risk groups based on risk scores calculated by nomogram. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to compare the survival differences between two groups. The 3- and 5-year area under the curve (AUC) values of the prediction nomogram model were 76.6% and 74.8%, respectively. The AIC, BIC, and C-index values of the nomogram model were 6,032.502, 15,728.72, and 0.707, respectively, which were better than the TNM staging system. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed a significant survival difference between high-risk and low-risk groups (P<0.0001). We constructed a prediction nomogram for stage II-III elderly CRC patients by combining pre-treatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels, which can accurately predict patient survival. This facilitates clinicians to accurately assess patient prognosis and identify high-risk patients to adopt more aggressive and effective treatment strategies.

CEA as a Tumor Marker in Predicting Pelvic and Para-aortic Lymph Node Metastasis in Squamous Cell Carcinoma Cervix

Background: Carcinoma cervix is the major cause of death from gynecological malignancies. Isolated paraaortic lymph node metastasis detected on the initial diagnosis of cervical cancers could be addressed via extended paraaortic lymph node irradiation. Serum Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) is useful in detecting early Para aortic lymph node (PALN). Materials and Methods: Fifty patients of histologically proven squamous cell carcinoma of cervix have been recruited into the study. We assessed pelvic and Para aortic lymph node status via CT or MRI scans. Serum CEA ranges had been evaluated in all from stage I to IV before starting the treatment.Results: We observed that high pretreatment CEA values were associated with the pelvic and paraaortic lymph node metastasis 65.2% of the patients with high pretreatment CEA value had PALN metastasis (p=0.002). 47.8% of the patients with high CEA had pelvic lymph nodal metastasis (p=0.077) and 70% of the patients with high pretreatment CEA had both Pelvic and PALN metastasis which was statistically significant (p=0.020).Conclusion: Carcinoembryonic antigen levels should help to prognosticate the Carcinoma Cervix patients and predict the presence of Para-aortic and Pelvic lymph nodes. This may be effective tool for detecting early failures in patients with Carcinoma Cervix

Integration of pretreatment tumor markers in a nomogram model for prognostic prediction of FIGO stage I endometrial cancer: A multi-institutional cohort study.

Traditionally, the prognosis of patients with FIGO stage I endometrial cancer is determined by clinicopathological risk factors. In this study, we assessed the potential contribution of pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and carbohydrate antigen-125 (CA-125) levels to estimating the prognosis of these patients and aimed to develop and validate a prognostic nomogram. This retrospective study included patients with FIGO stage I endometrial cancer who underwent treatment between January 2009 and December 2021 in the four institutes of Chang Gung Memorial Hospital. To identify optimal cutoff values of CEA and CA-125 for predicting survival, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated, the Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate survival, and a Cox regression model was used to analyze the independent prognostic factors. Finally, a nomogram and calibration curve were constructed to predict patient survival probability. Of the 1559 patients evaluated, the optimal cutoff values of CEA and CA-125 were 1.44 ng/mL (area under the ROC curve [AUC] 0.601) and 39.77 U/mL (AUC 0.503), respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that pretreatment CEA (hazard ratio [HR] 2.11, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.35-3.28), CA-125 (HR 2.07, 95% CI 1.31-3.27), age >70 years (HR 12.54, 95% CI 5.05-31.11), myometrial invasion >50% (HR 1.69, 95% CI 1.03-2.73), non-endometrioid histology (HR 1.83, 95% CI 1.14-2.95), high-grade tumor (HR 2.41, 95% CI 1.46-3.97), and lymphovascular space invasion (HR 2.32, 95% CI 1.26-4.25) were significant variables associated with overall survival. These factors were used to construct the nomogram model, which showed good concordance and accuracy. Integration of pretreatment CEA and CA-125 in a prognostic nomogram is feasible. Our prediction model has the potential to assist clinicians in guiding appropriate clinical practice.

The correlation between pre-treatment CEA levels and the EGFR mutation status in advanced lung adenocarcinoma.

The discovery of the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutation, especially in adenocarcinoma, has led to a major change in the treatment of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This study investigated the relationship between the EGFR mutation status and the carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels at the time of diagnosis. A total of 102 patients with EGFR mutation and tested CEA levels were recruited for this study. Of the patients, 24 were EGFR mutants (23.5%), while 78 patients (76.5%) did not harbor any EGFR mutations. The CEA levels did not differ across groups. Additionally, the CEA levels were analyzed between female and male patients separately due to EGFR mutations; no difference was observed. When the CEA levels were categorized as positive or negative based on different cut-off values, such as 5 and 10 ng/ml, no statistical difference was found between groups. In this study, no relationship between EGFR mutation and pre-treatment CEA levels was observed. Despite positive trials having shown a predictive value of CEA levels for EGFR mutation, more clinical trials are needed to elucidate the racial, clinical, and pathological differences of the study populations. Most studies have been located in the Far East, but new trials in Caucasian, African, and Hispanic populations are still lacking.

Clinical and pathological parameters predicting pathologic complete response after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for locally advanced rectal cancer

Objective The aim of this study is to identify possible clinical predictors of complete response after neoadjuvant treatment in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients. Background Preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) followed by total mesorectal excision and postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy for LARC is the standard of care with a local recurrence rate of only 5–10%. On the other hand, various people react differently to neoadjuvant CRT. Neoadjuvant CRT is well received by the majority of patients, with a pathologic complete response (pCR) occurring in 10–30% of cases. Predicting the response to neoadjuvant CRT is crucial from a clinical standpoint, since patients with pCR have a better prognosis and may require a different treatment plan than patients without pCR. As a result, predicting pCR following neoadjuvant CRT for rectal cancer continues to be extremely useful for treating physicians. To identify the clinical and pathological variables linked to a full response to preoperative CRT for rectal cancer, we assessed a group of patients with pCR in this study. Patients and methods The study included 153 patients with LARC that were enrolled in the study based on specific inclusion and exclusion criteria. Patients were treated by standard neoadjuvant therapy. Surgical resection was planned for 6–8 weeks after the completion of neoadjuvant CRT, irrespective of the response to CRT. Pathological examination was performed to assess pathological response in the resected specimen. pCR was defined as the absence of viable tumor cells in the surgical specimen, including lymph nodes. Results After neoadjuvant chemoradiation, the pCR rate for rectal cancer patients was 20.8%; patients were split into pCR and non-pCR groups. Age, sex, BMI, performance score, tumor stage, tumor differentiation, tumor location, and surgical method were all evenly distributed across the two groups. The results of the multivariate analysis showed that pretreatment lymph node status, tumor size, and a carcinoembryonic antigen level of less than or equal to 5 ng/ml were independent risk factors of an elevated likelihood of pCR, as was an interval of more than or equal to 8 weeks between the completion of chemoradiation and treatment. Conclusion The pCR in rectal cancer following neoadjuvant chemoradiation is predicted by pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen level of less than or equal to 5 ng/ml, an interval of more than or equal to 8 weeks between the end of chemoradiation and surgical resection, tumor size greater than 5 cm, and pretreatment lymph node status. By utilizing these predictive variables, we are able to forecast patients’ outcomes and create flexible treatment plans. In certain, very specific situations, a wait-and-see policy might be appropriate.

Prognostic value of the ratio of pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen to tumor volume in rectal cancer.

As a commonly used biomarker in rectal cancer (RC), the prognostic value of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) remains underexplored. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic value of pretreatment CEA/tumor volume in RC. This retrospective study included patients who underwent pretreatment magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with histologically confirmed primary rectal adenocarcinoma from November 2012 to April 2018. Patients were divided into high-risk and low-risk groups according to the median values of CEA/Diapath (CEA to pathological diameter), CEA/DiaMRI (CEA to MRI tumor diameter), and CEA/VolMRI (CEA to MRI tumor volume). Cox regression analysis was utilized to determine the prognostic value of CEA, CEA/Diapath, CEA/DiaMRI, and CEA/VolMRI. Stepwise regression was used to establish nomograms for predicting disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Predictive performance was estimated by using the concordance index (C-index) and area under curve receiver operating characteristic (AUC). A total of 343 patients [median age 58.99 years, 206 (60.06%) males] were included. After adjusting for patient-related and tumor-related factors, CEA/VolMRI was superior to CEA, CEA/Diapath, and CEA/DiaMRI in distinguishing high-risk from low-risk patients in terms of DFS [hazard ratio (HR) =1.83; P=0.010] and OS (HR =1.67; P=0.048). Subanalysis revealed that CEA/VolMRI stratified high death risk in CEA-negative individuals (HR =2.50; P=0.038), and also stratified low recurrence risk in CEA-positive individuals (HR =2.06; P=0.024). In the subanalysis of stage II or III cases, the highest HRs and the smallest P values were observed in distinguishing high-risk from low-risk patients according to CEA/VolMRI in terms of DFS (HR =2.44; P=0.046 or HR =2.41; P=0.001) and OS (HR =1.96; P=0.130 or HR =2.22; P=0.008). The nomograms incorporating CEA/VolMRI showed good performance, with a C-index of 0.72 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.68-0.79] for DFS and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.68-0.80) for OS. Higher CEA/VolMRI was associated with worse DFS and OS. CEA/VolMRI was superior to CEA, CEA/Diapath, and CEA/DiaMRI in predicting DFS and OS. Pretreatment CEA/VolMRI may facilitate risk stratification and treatment decision-making.

Development and validation of prognostic nomograms for early-onset colon cancer in different tumor locations: a population-based study

ObjectiveThe prevalence of early-onset colon cancer (EOCC) among individuals below the age of 50 has shown a marked upward trend in recent years. The embryology, clinical symptoms, incidence, molecular pathways, and oncologic outcomes differ between right-sided and left-sided colon cancers. However, the differences have not been fully researched in EOCC. Our study aims to develop and validate prognostic nomograms predicting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) for EOCC in different tumor locations based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.MethodsUsing the SEER database, a total of 5,588 patients with EOCC were extracted and divided into development and validation cohorts in a random allocation ratio of 7:3 across three groups. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent prognostic factors influencing OS and CSS outcomes. These factors were then utilized to construct nomogram models. The prognostic capabilities of the three models were assessed through various evaluation metrics, including the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and validation cohorts respectively. Additionally, survival curves of the low- and high-risk groups were calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method together with the log-rank test.ResultsSignificant differences in clinical features were observed between right-sided and left-sided EOCCs, particularly in terms of OS (52 months vs 54 months) as demonstrated by Kaplan–Meier curves. Transverse-sided EOCCs exhibited clinical characteristics similar to right-sided EOCCs, suggesting a potential shared tumor microenvironment and therapeutic considerations. Advanced stage, liver metastasis, poor grade, elevated pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level, chemotherapy, and perineural invasion were identified as independent prognostic factors across all three tumor locations and were incorporated into the nomogram model. Nomograms were constructed to predict the probability of 3- and 5-year OS and CSS. The C-index and calibration plots showed that the established nomograms had good consistency between actual clinical observations and predicted outcomes. ROC curves with calculated area under the curve (AUC) values exceeded 0.8 for all three groups in both the development and validation cohorts, indicating robust predictive performance for OS and CSS. Furthermore, decision curve analysis (DCA) plots revealed a threshold probability range of 0.1 to 0.9, within which the nomogram model exhibited maximum benefit. Kaplan–Meier curves exhibited significant differences between the low- and high-risk groups in EOCC for all three tumor locations in OS and CSS, further validating the prognostic value of the nomogram models.ConclusionsWe successfully developed three precise nomogram models for EOCCs in different tumor locations, providing valuable support for clinicians in guiding clinical treatments and facilitating further prospective follow-up studies.

Pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen combined with cancer antigen-125 for predicting lymph node metastasis in endometrial carcinoma: a retrospective cohort study.

To investigate whether the cost-effective, pretreatment tumor markers carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and carbohydrate antigen-125 (CA-125) can be used to predict lymph node metastasis (LNM) in endometrioid-type endometrial cancer (EC) and to develop a predictive model. This was a single-center retrospective study of patients with endometrioid-type EC who underwent complete staging surgery between January 2015 and June 2022. We identified the optimal cut-off values of CEA and CA-125 for predicting LNM using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors. A nomogram for predicting LNM was constructed and validated by bootstrap resampling. The optimal cut-off values of CEA and CA-125 were 1.4ng/mL (area under the ROC curve (AUC) 0.62) and 40 U/mL (AUC 0.75), respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that CEA (odds ratio (OR) 1.94; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-3.74) and CA-125 (OR 8.75; 95% CI 4.42-17.31) were independent predictors of LNM. Our nomogram showed adequate discrimination with a concordance index of 0.78. Calibration curves for the probability of LNM showed optimal agreement between the predicted and actual probabilities. The risk of LNM for markers below the cut-offs was 3.6%. The negative predictive value and negative likelihood ratio were 96.6% and 0.26, respectively, with moderate ability to rule out the possibility of LNM. We report a cost-effective method of using pretreatment CEA and CA-125 levels to identify patients with endometrioid-type EC who are at a low risk for LNM, which may guide decision-making regarding aborting lymphadenectomy.

An MRI Deep Learning Model Predicts Outcome in Rectal Cancer.

Background Deep learning (DL) models can potentially improve prognostication of rectal cancer but have not been systematically assessed. Purpose To develop and validate an MRI DL model for predicting survival in patients with rectal cancer based on segmented tumor volumes from pretreatment T2-weighted MRI scans. Materials and Methods DL models were trained and validated on retrospectively collected MRI scans of patients with rectal cancer diagnosed between August 2003 and April 2021 at two centers. Patients were excluded from the study if there were concurrent malignant neoplasms, prior anticancer treatment, incomplete course of neoadjuvant therapy, or no radical surgery performed. The Harrell C-index was used to determine the best model, which was applied to internal and external test sets. Patients were stratified into high- and low-risk groups based on a fixed cutoff calculated in the training set. A multimodal model was also assessed, which used DL model-computed risk score and pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen level as input. Results The training set included 507 patients (median age, 56 years [IQR, 46-64 years]; 355 men). In the validation set (n = 218; median age, 55 years [IQR, 47-63 years]; 144 men), the best algorithm reached a C-index of 0.82 for overall survival. The best model reached hazard ratios of 3.0 (95% CI: 1.0, 9.0) in the high-risk group in the internal test set (n = 112; median age, 60 years [IQR, 52-70 years]; 76 men) and 2.3 (95% CI: 1.0, 5.4) in the external test set (n = 58; median age, 57 years [IQR, 50-67 years]; 38 men). The multimodal model further improved the performance, with a C-index of 0.86 and 0.67 for the validation and external test set, respectively. Conclusion A DL model based on preoperative MRI was able to predict survival of patients with rectal cancer. The model could be used as a preoperative risk stratification tool. Published under a CC BY 4.0 license. Supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Langs in this issue.

Pretreatment Carcinoembryonic Antigen Level Serves as a Potential Biomarker to Guide Adjuvant Radiotherapy in pT4N+ Colon Cancer Patients.

The survival benefit of adjuvant radiotherapy in T4 colon cancer (CC) remains controversial, with conflicting results reported in the literature. This study aimed to explore the relationship between pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level and overall survival (OS) of pT4N+ CC patients treated with adjuvant radiotherapy. Data of pT4N+ CC patients who received curative surgery between 2004 and 2015 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The primary outcome was OS, and subgroup analysis was conducted according to pretreatment CEA level. A total of 8763 patients were eligible for our study. In the CEA-normal group, 151 patients received adjuvant radiotherapy, while 3932 patients did not. In the CEA-elevated group, 212 patients received adjuvant radiotherapy, while 4468 patients did not. In general, adjuvant radiotherapy was associated with better OS in pT4N+ CC patients (HR = 0.846, 95% CI = 0.733-0.976, P = 0.022). Intriguingly, only patients with an elevated pretreatment CEA level gained a survival benefit from adjuvant radiotherapy (HR = 0.782; 95% CI = 0.651-0.939; P = 0.008) while those with a normal pretreatment CEA level did not (HR = 0.907; 95% CI = 0.721-1.141; P = 0.403). Multivariable Cox regression analysis demonstrated that adjuvant radiotherapy was an independent protective factor in pT4N+ CC patients with an elevated pretreatment CEA level. Pretreatment CEA levels could serve as a potential biomarker to screen pT4N+ CC patients who would benefit from adjuvant radiotherapy.

Pretreatment risk prediction for distant metastasis in locally advanced rectal cancer.

248 Background: Distant metastasis is the most common form of recurrence in locally advanced rectal cancer. This study aimed to identify pretreatment risk factors for distant metastases in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. Methods: This single-institution retrospective study included 285 patients who underwent preoperative chemoradiotherapy followed by surgical resection between January 2016 and December 2020. Pretreatment clinical characteristics, MRI findings, and blood profiles were analyzed to investigate its association with distant metastasis. Results: With a median follow-up of 39 months (range: 6 - 78), 42 patients had confirmed distant metastasis (14.7%), and most distant metastasis occurred within three years (40 patients, 95.2%). In the multivariate analysis, pretreatment extramural venous invasion (EMVI, HR = 3.05, p &lt; 0.001) and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) &gt; 10 ng/mL (HR = 2.77, p = 0.002) were independent predictors of distant metastasis. Patients with no adverse factors had significantly better distant metastasis-free survival than patients with 1 or 2 adverse features (92% vs. 70% vs. 59% (p &lt; 0.001) at 3 years). Conclusions: Pretreatment CEA and EMVI have predictive significance for distant metastasis in locally advanced rectal cancer. Our findings may help select patients who may benefit from intensified preoperative treatment, such as total neoadjuvant therapy.

Survival nomograms for simultaneous resection of primary and hepatic lesions without neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with resectable colorectal liver metastasis

AbstractBackgroundNo well‐performing nomogram has been developed specifically to predict individual‐patient cancer‐specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) among patients with resectable colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) who undergo simultaneous resection of primary and hepatic lesions without neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC). We aim to investigate the prognosis of patients with resectable CRLM undergoing simultaneous resection of primary and hepatic lesions without NAC.MethodsData of patients with CRLM in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program (cohort, n = 225) were collected as the training set, and data of patients with CRLM treated at the National Cancer Center (cohort, n = 180) were collected as the validation set. The prognostic value of the clinicopathological parameters in the training cohort was assessed using Kaplan‒Meier curves and univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models, and OS and CSS nomograms integrated with the prognostic variables were constructed. Calibration analyses, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and decision curve analyses (DCAs) were then performed to evaluate the performance of the nomograms.ResultsThere was no collinearity among the collected variables. Three factors were associated with OS and CSS: the pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) concentration, pathologic N (pN) stage, and adjuvant chemotherapy (each p &lt; 0.05). OS and CSS nomograms were constructed using these three parameters. The calibration plots revealed favorable agreement between the predicted and observed outcomes. The areas under the ROC curves were approximately 0.7. The DCA plots revealed that both nomograms had satisfactory clinical benefits. The ROC curves and DCAs also confirmed that the nomogram surpassed the tumor, node, and metastasis staging system.ConclusionThe herein‐described nomograms containing the pretreatment CEA concentration, pN stage, and adjuvant chemotherapy may be effective models for predicting postoperative survival in patients with CRLM.

A refined prediction of early recurrence combining tumor deposits in patients with resected rectal mucinous adenocarcinoma.

Early recurrence (ER) of rectal mucinous adenocarcinoma (MAC) has yet to be defined. We therefore explored risk factors for ER and constructed a predictive nomogram. A total of 145 rectal MAC patients undergoing radical surgery were included. The minimum P value method was used to determine the optimal cut-off point to discriminate between ER and late recurrence (LR). Risk factors for ER were determined by a logistic regression analysis, and a predictive nomogram was constructed. A total of 62 (42.8%) patients developed tumor recurrence. The optimal time to define ER was 12months. A pre-treatment tumor distance from the anal verge ≤ 7cm, pathological N stage, lymphovascular invasion, tumor deposits, and time to recurrence ≤ 12months were significantly associated with a poor post-recurrence survival in patients with recurrence. A pre-treatment serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level > 10ng/ml, pre-treatment tumor distance from the anal verge ≤ 7cm, pathological N + stage, perineural invasion, and tumor deposits were identified as independent risk factors associated with ER. A nomogram predicting ER was constructed (C-index 0.870). The pre-treatment serum CEA level, pre-treatment tumor distance from the anal verge, pathological N + stage, perineural invasion, and tumor deposits were significantly predictive of ER for rectal MAC patients.

Active surveillance in long period of total neoadjuvant therapy in rectal cancer: Early prediction of poor regression response.

To analyze locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients and tumor characteristics during the period of total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) and explore the risk factors that may predict poor tumor regression in response to TNT. The data of 120 LARC patients who received TNT from December 2016 and September 2019 in our hospital were retrospectively analyzed. The clinicopathological characteristics of patients with different tumor regression responses were compared. Then we divided patients into two groups according to the carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) clearance pattern after chemoradiation to explore risk factors that might predict the tumor regression response. Of 120 LARC patients, 34 (28.3%) exhibited poor regression. Stratified analysis by tumor response showed that patients with poor response to TNT were more likely to obtain elevated CEA during the course of TNT (all P < 0.05). For those with elevated pretreatment CEA, fewer patients with poor response obtained normal CEA after chemoradiation (13.6% vs. 72.7%, P < 0.001). Besides, less patients' CEA levels in the poor response group decreased by greater than 50% after chemoradiation when compared with that in the good response group (18.2% vs. 60.6%, P = 0.002). Stratified analysis by CEA clearance pattern after chemoradiation showed patients who obtained an elevated pretreatment CEA and decreased by less than 50% after chemoradiation were more likely to have poor response to TNT compared to others (76.2% vs. 18.2%, P < 0.001). Logistic multivariate analysis revealed that cN2 (95% CI 1.553-16.448), larger tumors (95% CI 2.250-21.428) and CEA clearance pattern after chemoradiation (95% CI 1.062-66.992) were independent risk factors for poor tumor regression response. Approximately one-fourth of LARC patients with TNT achieved a poor regression response. Here, cN2, larger tumor size before treatment and elevated CEA levels were considered predictive features of a poor response. Active surveillance of CEA levels during the TNT course are potentially important, and CEA levels after chemoradiation might have important implications for the tumor response to TNT.

ROLE OF CARBOHYDRATE ANTIGEN (CA19-9) AND CARCINOEMBRYONIC ANTIGEN (CEA) AS A PROGNOSTIC FACTORS IN PANCREATIC CARCINOMA

Objective:To investigate the potential utility of pre-treatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and carbohydrate antigen (CA 19-9) as prognostic indicators to assess prognosis in pancreatic carcinoma. MaterialsandMethods:This retrospective observational study was carried out at the Department of General Surgery Hayatabad Medical Complex Peshawar from July 2017 to June 2022. A total of 70 patients with the diagnosis of pancreaticcarcinoma were enrolled.Allpatientswerehistologicallydiagnosedwithpancreaticcarcinoma. ThelevelsofCA19-9andCEAwereevaluatedbeforetreatment.Allpatientsreceivedeitheranoperation,chemotherapy or chemoradiotherapy (CRT), and patientswho only received supportive care, palliative surgery or othertreatmentswerenotincludedinthestudy.Patients with a history of other malignancies were excluded. Results:A total of 70 patients were included in this study. Age ranged between 25-75 years, with a mean age of 50 years. Included patients were stratified into 2 groups (35 each) in regard to their preoperative CEA &amp; CA 19-9 level. Group 1: (Normal serum level group, CEA level value &lt;5ng/ml &amp; CA19-9 &lt;37 U/ml), Group 2: (Elevated level group ≥5ng/ml &amp; ≥37 U/ml)There were 19(54.3%) males and 16(45.7%) females in group 1 with male to female ratio of 1.18:1 and 18(51.4%) male &amp; 17(48.6%) females in group 2 with male to female ratio 1.05:1. CA 19-9 and CEA were evaluated at initial diagnosis,andthemedianlevelswere37U/mL(range,0.1-20000U/mL) and 3.4 ng/mL (range, 0.04-8566 ng/mL), respectively. Conclusion:Patientswithelevated serum CEA levels at diagnosis demonstrated poor overall survival. Pre-treatment CEA level may predict the prognosis of patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

Significance of serum carcinoembryonic antigen in metastatic breast cancer patients: A prospective study.

BACKGROUNDCarcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) is an important serum tumour marker with a substantial role in diagnosis and monitoring of various solid tumours. About 36%-70% of breast cancers have elevated serum CEA. And the available studies show discrepancy in addressing the prognostic significance of CEA in advanced breast cancer.AIMTo estimate the serum CEA level in our metastatic breast cancer patients and correlate it with response to treatment and clinical outcome.METHODSThis was a prospective clinical study conducted on 50 metastatic breast cancer patients treated at breast clinic, with newly diagnosed metastatic breast cancer planned for palliative chemotherapy, targeted therapy, and hormonal treatment. We estimated the proportion of patients with elevated serum CEA level at baseline and after palliative treatment and also studied the association of serum CEA levels with known prognostic factors. The response to treatment was correlated with the serum CEA levels in the context of responders and non-responders.RESULTSThe median pre-treatment and post-treatment CEA levels were 7.9 (1.8-40.7) ng/mL and 4.39 (1.4-12.15) ng/mL, respectively, in the whole study population (P = 0.032). No statistically significant difference was seen in baseline serum CEA between responders and non-responders. Even in the luminal group, pre-treatment serum CEA was not a predictor of response, but post-treatment CEA was a significant predictor of tumour progression. In patients with liver and lung metastases, post-treatment CEA level difference was not statistically significant in both responders and non-responders though the values were higher in non-responders. Among those with bone metastases, 69.5% had elevated post-treatment serum CEA, and only 37.5% had elevated serum CEA in those with no bone metastases.CONCLUSIONElevated post-treatment serum CEA levels are associated with disease progression and poor response to therapy. Persistently elevated post-treatment serum CEA levels are significantly associated with bone metastases. Elevated serum CEA and hormonal status are significant predictors of treatment response.