As metal plane flyer, pure copper thin plate is required with extremely low surface shape error. To achieve this goal, some researchers make a significant attempt to develop a deterministic full-aperture polishing/lapping process. However, the detail relationship of surface shape error and vital machining parameter such as machining time which benefits machining efficiency promotion is not given. Besides, the error rate of surface shape error prediction is high. To solve this problem, the surface shape prediction model considering the influence of pressure and relative velocity distribution on material removal amount is established for thin copper plate. Through the product of pressure distribution, relative velocity distribution, Preston coefficient k and machining time T, material removal distribution is obtained. According to initial surface shape characteristic, through targeted adjustment of eccentricity, lapping pad rotation speed, workpiece rotation speed to control pressure and relative velocity distribution, suitable material removal distribution is formed to smooth surface radial profile, realizing deterministic control of surface shape error. By above method, the flatness of pure copper thin plate (Φ200 mm × 2.2 mm) decreases from PV 54.8 μm to PV 1.9 μm with mean error rate of surface shape error prediction <10 %, realizing deterministic control of surface shape error.