President's Council Of Advisors On Science And Technology Research Articles

MaSTR™: an effective probabilistic genotyping tool for interpretation of STR mixtures associated with differentially degraded DNA.

The recently developed probabilistic genotyping software package MaSTR™ (SoftGenetics LLC) was used to develop statistical weight estimates for a variety of two-person STR mixture profiles with differentially degraded sources of DNA. A total of 864 analyses, on 144 two-person profiles, were performed. Mixture ratios ranged from 1:1 to 1:10, including pristine sources of DNA and various combinations of artificially degraded DNA (average size fragments of 150 or 250 bps). Quantities of DNA template were varied (0.1 to 0.5 ngs of total input) and MaSTR™ analysis was performed with eight chains of 10,000 or 40,000 iterations, with or without a conditioning profile to generate likelihood ratio (LR) values. Overall, the software performed as expected. The resulting log(LR) values for pristine mixture profiles were typically greater than 1030. Lower-quality mixture data associated with sources of DNA at ~ 0.05 ngs for each contributor resulted in peak imbalance and allelic dropout which reduced the weight in support of a contributor. This was exacerbated by higher levels of degradation, with some instances resulting in log(LR) values in support of an exclusion. These studies provide additional support for the use of probabilistic genotyping software solutions in forensic investigations, addressing concerns raised by the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST).

Beretta barrel fired bullet validation study.

A report published in 2016 by the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) criticized studies that have been published regarding the discipline of firearm identification. This study was designed to answer some of these criticisms and involved 30 consecutively manufactured Beretta brand 9mm Luger caliber barrels. This study had an "open set" design to help the discipline of firearm identification establish "Foundational Validity" which is outlined in the PCAST report. Seventy-two qualified firearm examiners completed and submitted answers for this study that included 15 knowns and 20 unknowns. There were an additional 5 firearms with similar characteristics as the Beretta barrels that were also included as unknowns which provided "known non-match" comparisons. Test sets were created using the random function in Microsoft Excel. Collaborative Testing Services (CTS) funded, facilitated, distributed the tests, and collected the answers from qualified firearm examiners throughout the United States and the world. Firearm examiners were able to complete the test of fired bullets with a low error rate. The error rate for the corrected data was 0.08% (1 in 1250) with the lower confidence interval as low as 0.01% (1 in 10,000) and the upper confidence interval being as high as 0.4% (1 in 250).

Ensuring the Reliability of Fire-Arm Identification Evidence

Notwithstanding the acceptance of firearm identification by courts, the scientific community has been reluctant to recognise firearm identification as a reliable method of conclusively establishing a connection between a particular bullet and a particular gun. The National Institute of Justice (NIJ) in the United States (US) has categorised firearm identification as a discipline under forensic science, and forensic science has been described as a "fractured and burdened discipline". In addition, in 2009 the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) concluded that forensic science is broken. With regard to firearm identification, the NAS Report emphasised the need for sufficient studies to be done because this report regarded this type of evidence as unreliable and lacking repeatability. The President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) Report, released in September 2016, came to a conclusion similar to that of the 2009 NAS Report with regard to forensic science evidence. With regard to firearm identification, the report asserted that firearm identification evidence still "falls short of the scientific criteria for foundational validity". It is disturbing that courts across the globe are using different types of forensic science without subjecting them to scrutiny so as to determine their reliability. In the light of this, reliability and validity have become important factors which demand attention in Anglo-American litigation, even in jurisdictions that do not have a formal reliability standard (such as England and Wales, and South Africa). This article shows the role of cross-examination in establishing the reliability of firearm expert evidence. It also focusses on the role that South African forensic practitioners, prosecutors, defence counsels and presiding officers can play in ensuring the reliability of firearm identification evidence

The Dangers of Convictions Based on a Single Piece of Forensic Evidence

The overall goal of the criminal justice system is to ensure that perpetrators of crimes are duly punished and that victims of crimes are duly exonerated. As part of the effort to achieve this goal, the forensic disciplines have become very important in criminal investigations and prosecutions in identifying the guilty and in exonerating the innocent. There is a growing number of cases where people have been convicted based on a single piece of forensic evidence. However, some of the convictions have been found to be wrong, largely, due to the lack of adequate scientific validation of the forensic science methods. Some of these methods include latent fingerprint analysis, bite mark analysis, microscopic hair analysis and firearms identification. This article critically examines the application of forensic evidence in criminal prosecutions and highlights the dangers of convictions based on a single piece of forensic evidence. The findings of recent reports, such as, the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) 2009 Report and President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) 2016 Report, confirm the critical role and broad scope of these forensic pattern-matching methods. The reports also indicate flaws that affect the accuracy of these methods, such as, inadequate scientific validation, coincidental results (erroneous match), human, laboratory and interpretive errors etc. Therefore, this article argues that the court should follow a cautionary approach when relying on a single piece of forensic evidence and that strong corroboration with other forms of evidence linking the accused to the crime should be required.

Welcome to AI matters 5(4)

Welcome to the fourth issue of the fifth volume of the AI Matters Newsletter. This issue is full of great new articles and stories! In our regular articles, we open with an event report by Louise Dennis on recent conferences relevant to SIGAI organized around the world. Louise Dennis then provides a summary of upcoming AI events. In the policy column, Larry Medsker covers recent policies on national strategy for AI laid down by the U.S. government, implications of AI on workplace transitions, President Trump's executive order on re-establishing the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST), and more. Our final regular column is our AI crosswords from Adi Botea. Enjoy! We have three contributed articles in our current issue. In the first article, Sharad Sinha and Clint George provide a summary of the events and activities of a recent workshop conducted in India on AI for high school students. In the second article, Trevor Watkins describes the Cosmology of Artificial Intelligence Project (CAIP) that uses innovative visualization techniques to present the evolution of the field of AI. In the third article, Virginia Dignum discusses how AI is progressively trending to become a multi-disciplinary field of reseach and the implications of this trend on the future of AI.

Dataset of Digitized RACs and Their Rarity Score Analysis for Strengthening Shoeprint Evidence.

In recent years, there is a growing demand to fortify the scientific basis of forensic methodology. During 2016, the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) published a report that states there are no appropriate empirical studies that support the foundational validity of footwear analysis to associate shoeprints with particular shoes based on specific identifying marks, which is a basic scientific demand from the field. Furthermore, meaningful databases that can support such studies do not exist. Without such databases, statistical presentation of the comparison results cannot be fulfilled either. In this study, a database of over 13,000 randomly acquired characteristics (RACs) such as scratches, nicks, tears, and holes, as they appear on shoe sole test impressions, from nearly 400 shoe soles was collected semi-automatically. The location, orientation, and the contour of each RAC were determined for all the RACs on each test impression. The statistical algorithm Statistic Evaluation of Shoeprint Accidentals (SESA) was developed to calculate a score for finding another feature similar to a particular scanned and digitized RAC in the same shape, location, and orientation as the examined one. A correlation was found between the results of SESA and the results of real casework, strengthening our belief in the ability of SESA to assist the expert in reaching a conclusion while performing casework. The score received at the end of the process serves the expert as a guiding number, allowing more objective and accurate results and conclusions.

Australian forensic textile damage examinations – Finding a way forward since PCAST

Textile damage examinations are requested in a range of crime types such as assault, sexual assault and homicide. They typically involve the examination of clothing for damage such as cut, tear or thermal damage, often then followed by experimental scenario testing to help ascertain the cause of the damage. Understanding the underpinning science is central to the accurate interpretation of the complex mechanism of damage formation. In a stabbing incident for example, an understanding of the dynamic relationship between the knife blade, fabric and skin (or skin simulant) is critical.Recent reports, including the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) report, have scrutinised forensic feature-based comparison techniques. Whilst textile damage was not a focus area, it can be considered a feature-based evidence class, and one which is currently largely reliant upon a practitioner's opinion, experience and professional judgement.This paper will review the current state of textile damage examinations in Australia and survey research being conducted to address the issues raised in the context of the PCAST report. The central contribution of observational data to the evidence class of textile damage will also be explored, as well as some practical measures to counter the effects of cognitive bias.

Federal Officials, Congress Seek Ways To Stimulate Antibiotic Development

The President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) last September released a report, “Combating Antibiotic Resistance,” along with a strategy for dealing with this public health problem. In addition, the White House issued an Executive Order emphasizing the importance of addressing this challenge (Microbe, November 2014, p. 432). “Even with improved stewardship and surveillance, it is critical to develop new antibiotics, diagnostics, vaccines, and other interventions at a rate that outpaces the emergence of resistant microbes,” PCAST members noted. “A robust antibiotic pipeline is essential for creating new antibiotics to replace those being steadily lost to antibiotic resistance. Establishing this pipeline and successfully addressing the rise in antibiotic resistant bacteria will require coordination across governmental, academic, health-related, agricultural, and private sectors.”

The PCAST Report: Impact and Implications for the Pharmaceutical Industry

The President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) report sets out an ambitious goal: to double the output of innovative, new medicines with increased efficacy and safety within the next 10-15 years. If attainable, this could change the face of medicine and bring great benefit to society. Clear leadership, commitment to action, and unprecedented collaboration will be essential if the goal of the report is to be realized.

The PCAST Report on Pharmaceutical Innovation: Implications for the FDA

In September 2012, the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) released the report "Propelling Innovation in Drug Discovery, Development and Evaluation." A product of discussions with many stakeholders, the report reiterates current problems in drug development, including diminished return on basic biomedical research. The report calls for doubling the current annual output of innovative new medicines--an ambitious goal. Recommendations and resulting initiatives will probably affect the FDA's drug regulatory programs.

Epilepsy informatics and an ontology-driven infrastructure for large database research and patient care in epilepsy.

The epilepsy community increasingly recognizes the need for a modern classification system that can also be easily integrated with effective informatics tools. The 2010 reports by the United States President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) identified informatics as a critical resource to improve quality of patient care, drive clinical research, and reduce the cost of health services. An effective informatics infrastructure for epilepsy, which is underpinned by a formal knowledge model or ontology, can leverage an ever increasing amount of multimodal data to improve (1) clinical decision support, (2) access to information for patients and their families, (3) easier data sharing, and (4) accelerate secondary use of clinical data. Modeling the recommendations of the International League Against Epilepsy (ILAE) classification system in the form of an epilepsy domain ontology is essential for consistent use of terminology in a variety of applications, including electronic health records systems and clinical applications. In this review, we discuss the data management issues in epilepsy and explore the benefits of an ontology-driven informatics infrastructure and its role in adoption of a "data-driven" paradigm in epilepsy research.

Energy and Climate Change Report Provides Options for the White House

A newly approved energy and climate change report prepared by the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) provides a menu of options for President Barack Obama to consider in dealing with climate change and includes components for a national climate preparedness strategy. The report was approved at a 15 March PCAST meeting in Washington, D. C., and is subject to final edits. It is the first report by the advisory council that focuses exclusively on climate, according to PCAST member Daniel Schrag, who provided a presentation about the document at the meeting.

A ROUNDUP OF NEWS AND INFORMATION FROM OUR COMMUNIT

A ROUNDUP OF NEWS AND INFORMATION FROM OUR COMMUNIT

Engage to Excel

In 2010, we and our colleagues on the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) released a report entitled Prepare and Inspire: K-12 Education in Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM) Education for America's Future . This important report advocates preparing all students to use STEM in their personal and professional lives and inspiring them to learn STEM subjects and pursue STEM careers. But in the United States, over 60% of students who enter college intending to major in a STEM field fail to graduate with a STEM degree. Because economic analyses forecast that the United States will need 1 million more STEM graduates over the next decade than will be produced by our current modes of education, * reducing this dropout rate is the focus of a second report we released last month, called Engage to Excel: Producing One Million Additional College Graduates with Degrees in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics . †

Obama Announces Science Education Goal at White House Science Fair

With student participants in the second annual White House Science Fair as a backdrop, President Barack Obama announced on 7 February programs to help prepare new math and science teachers and to meet a new goal of having 1 million more U.S. college graduates in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) over the next decade than there would be at the current graduation rate. That goal is outlined in a report entitled “Engage to excel,” by the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST), released the same day. Obama also announced several other initiatives, including a $22 million private‐sector investment, led by the Carnegie Corporation of New York, to invest in STEM teacher training. After he toured the science fair projects, Obama said the science fair students “inspire” him. “What impresses me so much is not just how smart you are, but it's the fact that you recognize you've got a responsibility to use your talents in service of something bigger than yourselves,” he said. What these young people are doing is “going to make a bigger difference in the life of our country over the long term than just about anything,” adding, “We've got to emphasize how important this is and recognize these incredible young people who are doing that that I couldn't even imagine thinking about at fifth grade or eighth grade or in high school.”

Obama's science advisers call for new initiative to spur advanced manufacturing in US

The federal government should create a multiagency advanced manufacturing initiative to help US industry regain its competitiveness, says a new report by the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST).

Report calls for transforming the U.S. energy system

The United States should develop a coordinated, government‐wide, federal energy policy to transform the nation's energy system within 1–2 decades, according to a 29 November report by the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST). A key recommendation is for the president to establish a quadrennial energy review process to provide a road map for short‐ and long‐term energy objectives, to outline legislative proposals, to put forward anticipated executive branch actions, and to identify resource requirements for research and development programs.Entitled “Report to the president on accelerating the pace of change in energy technologies through an integrated federal energy policy,” the report also calls for the government to invest $16 billion per year for clean energy innovation. The report indicates that this would be an approximate tripling of current Department of Energy investments in energy science and technology. Stating that “the discretionary budget is under severe pressure,” the report recommends that the president engage the private sector and Congress to generate about $10 billion per year of funding through new revenue streams. A small charge on electricity and transportation fuel could be “well within the normal fluctuations in price seen by consumers” and generate billions of dollars for research.

Mentors for Elementary School Teachers

In his News of the Week story “A way to heal science education, but is there the political will?” (24 September, p. [1582][1]), J. Mervis quotes from the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) report, stating that “too many American students conclude early in their education that STEM [science, technology, engineering, and math] subjects are boring, too difficult, or unwelcoming, leaving them ill-prepared to meet the challenges that will face their generation, their country, and the world” ([ 1 ][2]). The PCAST report proposes some solutions but overlooks one possibility. The answer lies in elementary school, where children form their first opinions about STEM. How can they develop a passion for STEM when many elementary school teachers themselves hate or fear these subjects? I propose that all elementary school teachers be provided with real-world STEM research experiences from scientist mentors. One case study showed that after a 6-week research experience, elementary school teacher attitudes changed from “my students will not become scientists” to “my students are scientists” ([ 2 ][3]). Quality research experiences for elementary school teachers will help solve the national crisis cited in the PCAST report ([ 1 ][2]). 1. [↵][4] President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, “Prepare and inspire: K-12 education in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) for America's future” (PCAST, 2010); [www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/pcast-stemed-report.pdf][5]. 2. [↵][6] 1. P. Dixon, 2. R. A. Wilke , J. Elem. Sci. Educ. 19, 25 (2007). [OpenUrl][7] [1]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.329.5999.1582 [2]: #ref-1 [3]: #ref-2 [4]: #xref-ref-1-1 View reference 1 in text [5]: http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/pcast-stemed-report.pdf [6]: #xref-ref-2-1 View reference 2 in text [7]: {openurl}?query=rft.jtitle%253DJ.%2BElem.%2BSci.%2BEduc.%26rft.volume%253D19%26rft.spage%253D25%26rft.genre%253Darticle%26rft_val_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Ajournal%26ctx_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ctx_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Actx

Prepare and Inspire

A few weeks ago, we and our colleagues on the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) presented President Obama with the report Prepare and Inspire: K-12 Education in Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM) Education for America's Future . * It advocates a two-pronged strategy: To prepare all students to use STEM in their personal and professional lives, and to inspire them to learn STEM subjects and pursue STEM careers. It also provides a roadmap of programs that the federal government must seriously consider if the United States is to remain a vibrant and innovative society.

Obama's Science Advisers Look at Reform of Schools

Confident that its opinions will be welcomed by the Obama Administration, the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) has launched a study of how best to improve U.S. science education.