Presidential Impeachment Research Articles

Partisan habitual voters in South Korea: Employing Random Forests to understand Korean voters' electoral choices

AbstractObjectiveThis study investigates whether recent political events in South Korea, such as a presidential impeachment and changes in leadership, have caused a realignment of voters' political affiliations. We aim to determine whether political party allegiance has transitioned into a pattern of habitual voting in the last ten years.MethodsEmploying a Random Forest model based on machine learning approaches, we examined polling data from the last ten years of Korean presidential elections. Instead of relying on hypothesis‐led methods, our analysis emphasizes the intrinsic characteristics of the data to uncover crucial elements affecting voter behavior in each election.ResultsOur results reveal a considerable consistency in voting patterns over the past decade, implying that allegiance to political parties has turned into a habitual behavior. Significant factors affecting voter choices in the 2022 election were also recognized as indicators of election outcomes five and ten years prior.ConclusionThe study reveals that voter behavior in South Korea remains stable despite notable political changes, primarily influenced by habitual elements rather than substantial changes in party loyalty. This suggests that political allegiance has become ingrained as a habitual behavior for Korean voters.

PRESIDENTIAL IMPEACHMENT IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA & THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA

Presidential impeachment serves as a constitutional mechanism to safeguard against executive overreach and uphold democratic principles such as the rule of law and separation of powers. This paper examines presidential impeachment processes and outcomes in the United States of America (USA) and the Republic of Korea (ROK), addressing the extent to which they reflect the principles of the rule of law. In the USA, impeachment rests within the legislative branch, with trials conducted by elected politicians, leading to minimal pres- idential accountability. Conversely, in the ROK, the impeachment process is overseen by an independent judiciary and demonstrates greater accountability, justness—through precedent-based decisions—and impartiality—reflecting democratic representation. The approach of the ROK, while more challenging to implement directly due to the structure of its parliamentary system, highlights ways in which the impeachment process in the USA could potentially be en- hanced, emphasising the importance of institutional independence in upholding the rule of law.

청원권의 의미와 한계, 그리고 개선방향에 대한 소고 - 최근 국회에 제기된 대통령 탄핵소추 청원을 중심으로

Although the right to petition is a fundamental right guaranteed by the Constitution, it has not received much attention. This is because the development of democracy and the rule of law has established a well-developed system of rights redress, and people have not placed much expectation on the right to petition. Recently, however, there have been calls for serious reflection on the meaning and limits of the right to petition. This is because petitions to impeach the president have been filed through the e-petition system, and the National Assembly has even held hearings to examine the petitions, sparking controversy over the meaning and limits of the right to petition and how to improve it legislatively. However, there has been a lack of systematic research and review on the right to petition, and therefore, despite the intense public interest, the normative evaluation of presidential impeachment petitions and the holding of petitions for this purpose is still lacking. To address these issues, this thesis examined the meaning and legal nature of the constitutional right to petition, the contents, procedures, and legal requirements of the right to petition, and the current practice and problems of petitioning. It also analyzed recent presidential impeachment petitions to determine whether they met the legal requirements for petitioning, whether it was lawful to hold presidential impeachment petition hearings, and whether these petition hearings degraded the impeachment process against the president. In addition, the study analyzed the reasons for excluding petitions under the current law and suggested legislative improvements to improve the situation. It also suggested a legislative distinction between petitions that are not accepted and those that are not accepted. Lastly, it also suggested ways to prevent the impeachment process from being circumvented by holding impeachment petition hearings.

ANALYSIS OF THE CONCLUSION OF THE PLENUM OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT IN RELATION TO THE VIOLATION OF THE CONSTITUTION BY THE PRESIDENT OF GEORGIA AND INTERNATIONAL PRACTICE

From 2013 until the present, the dispute on the separation of competencies between the leaders of the state government has been ongoing in political life, as well as on an international scale in the field of foreign relations. The field of foreign relations is of national importance and is directly related to the state’s image and foreign policy. The conclusion of the international treaties, as well as the appointment of the ambassadors and representation of the state, has become the subject of dispute at various times. State representation by the President in foreign relations has led to a Constitutional Reference submitted by the Parliament of Georgia to the Constitutional Court of Georgia, alleging a violation of the Constitution by the President for the first time in the country’s history. As a result, according to the conclusion of the Constitutional Court of Georgia dated October 16, 2023, President Ms. Zurabishvili violated the Constitution of Georgia by exercising representation powers without the consent of the Government. Based on the above, this thesis will analyze the meaning of the representation power in foreign relations, the President’s constitutional status, and the President’s role in foreign relations, acting as the socalled “neutral arbitrator”. This thesis will include a discussion on the roles of the Parliament and the Constitutional Court of Georgia in the political-legal process of Presidential impeachment proceedings. It will also examine the conclusions and decisions of Constitutional Courts in various states regarding alleged constitutional violations by Presidents and disputes over competence.

When Oversight Went Awry: Congress and Intelligence in the Twenty-First Century

Congress’ intelligence oversight has gone off the rails. The legislative branch has taken its constitutional responsibilities of surveying and guiding national intelligence and instead practiced rampant partisanship. The formerly bipartisan and sober intelligence committees have become a political battleground for most of the twenty-first century, although each body will occasionally exhibit rationality and responsibility. Congress began by treating intelligence as another issue to be addressed in the context of contemporary politics. In the Trump era, intelligence itself became a central battleground, and the oversight structure was the forum for a presidential impeachment. Seen in three phases, intelligence oversight in Congress has gone from partisanship (2003–2004) to hyperpartisanship (2004–2014) to intermittent dysfunction (2017–present). This assessment considers Congress’ intelligence oversight through numerous case studies and offers positive examples for reform.

Authority Of The Constitutional Court In Impeachment Of The President And/Or The Vice President According To The Basic Law Of The Republic Of Indonesia Of 1945

One of the important results of the third amendment to the Republic of Indonesia Constitution of 1945 was the impeachment of the President and/or Vice President. Prior to the third amendment to the Republic of Indonesia Constitution of 1945, there was not a single article that regulated the impeachment of the President and/or Vice President. Even though the third amendment has passed 23 years, we have never had the experience of judicial impeachment in constitutional life in Indonesia. The three presidential impeachments that have occurred in Indonesia were not judicial impeachments, but political impeachments. President Sukarno, President Suharto and President Abdurrahman Wahid were impeached but did not use legal mechanisms through the Constitutional Court. This writing will raise two legal issues: first, whether the terms contained in the 1945 Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia, dismissal and dismissal, are appropriate according to Indonesian Law. Second, what is the mechanism for dismissing the President according to the 1945 Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia after the amendment. The method used in this research is normative juridical research. The approaches used in this research are the statutory approach, conceptual approach, historical approach, case approach and comparative legal approach. From the discussion in this article, it can be concluded that the words "dismissal" and "dismissed" are not appropriate. This is based on the idea that "dismissal" and "dismissed" are not legal language. Thus, according to Indonesian law, it needs to be changed with the word "Pemakzulan" for the word "dismissal" and the word "impeached" for the word "dismissed". The impeachment procedure begins with the DPR's opinion that the President and/or Vice President has committed treason against the state, corruption, bribery, other serious criminal acts or disgraceful acts and/or is proven to be ineligible as president and/or Vice President. The DPR's opinion is registered with the Constitutional Court, with the requirement that 2/3 of the DPR members must be present and 2/3 of the DPR members present support the DPR's opinion. If the Constitutional Court decides that the President and/or Vice President have been proven to have violated the law, the DPR holds a plenary session to forward the proposal to dismiss the President and/or Vice President to the MPR. No later than 30 days after the MPR receives the proposal, the MPR is obliged to hold a session to decide on the DPR's proposal. The MPR's decision on the DPR's proposal must be taken at an MPR plenary meeting attended by ¾ of the members and approved by 2/3 of the total MPR members present.

Authentic leadership and motivation as moderators of the organizational politics–knowledge sharing relationship: A test amidst crisis

Organizational politics are recognized as a ubiquitous and negative threat to knowledge sharing in organizations, yet less research has examined the boundary conditions that affect this relationship, particularly in interdependent manufacturing contexts. This article aims to explore how authentic leadership, intrinsic motivation, and prosocial motivation bound the effects of organizational politics on the knowledge sharing activities of individuals and workgroups in the shop floor of the Brazilian automotive consortium during a political and economic crisis context (2015–2017). This crisis context was marked by presidential impeachment, high inflation, economic instability, and massive plant layoffs. We sampled 144 shop floor workers using a questionnaire-based survey and established scales, and employed multivariate regression analyses to test our hypotheses. Contrary to expectations, we found that organizational politics increase, rather than decrease, knowledge sharing of individuals and groups. Moderation analyses suggest that worker intrinsic motivation and prosocial motivation significantly moderate the positive relationships between organizational politics and knowledge sharing of individuals and groups, while authentic leadership had no significant effect on this relationship. JEL CLASSIFICATION: D2: Production and Organizations

Criminal responsibility of the President of the United States of America

Observed from a wider historical perspective, the most recent period of the constitutional life of the United States of America risks to be remembered as the one during which the presidential impeachment procedure was used incomparably more often than ever before. This sometimes attracts particular attention to the topic of criminal responsibility of the President, on which the Constitution itself remains silent. At the same time, legislation and jurisprudence seem to have been shying away from addressing this important and rather actual issue. The question whether the presidential immunity protects a sitting or a former president from arrest, trial, or punishment for deeds committed during the presidential term of office thus represents a particularly complex legal puzzler. This is particularly the case since the traditional checks-and-balances system appears to be displaying signs of weakness due to an overtly politicized procedure, notably in the absence of firm legal guidelines or clear theoretical perspectives.

Establishing the Gold Standard For Presidential Impeachments: Peter Rodino’s Leadership of the House Judiciary Committee 1973-1974

Establishing the Gold Standard For Presidential Impeachments: Peter Rodino’s Leadership of the House Judiciary Committee 1973-1974

Exchange rates and binary political events

Abstract This article introduces a rational expectations model that explains exchange rate dynamics and the predictability of forecast errors using private (aggregated via order flow) and public (probabilities of a binary event) information. We test the model for the periods leading up to the presidential impeachment vote in Brazil, the Brexit Referendum, and Donald Trump’s election in 2016. Proxies of the physical probabilities of these events reveal that they are a crucial source of pricing information for the BRL, GBP, and MXN currency pairs with the US dollar. They also explain forecast errors. The information content of order flow changes before and after an actual regime change resolves uncertainty.

세대간 갈등 해소 가능성에 관한 연구

The ongoing conflict in South Korea has reached a critical juncture, as evidenced by pertinent indices. The divergence in public awareness regarding the presidential impeachment from 2016-2017 instigated rallies, which, in turn, caused a schism of opinions between the two factions. Through the Q methodology, this study scrutinizes the perceptions of these groups, illuminating their cognizance of the current state of affairs and identifying avenues for negotiation and conflict resolution. Four distinct typologies, viz. positive, negative, conflict and compromise efforts, and rational non-communication, emerged from the PQMethod analysis, underscoring the prospects for conciliation. This study underscores the imperative for mediating this conflict and acknowledges the existence of conflict and compromise efforts that both factions can reconcile, paving the way for their crucial role in fostering social harmony in the future.

사법부와 정치위기

This study discusses on the presidential impeachment perceiving it as a constitutional device to overcome the internal political crisis - the loss of the president's control of state affairs - within the constitutional system. With so much power concentrated on the president, the president's vacancy can lead to a serious power vacuum. Whether this crisis can be resolved and turned into a stable phase is entirely left to the decision maker, the Constitutional Court. It might be wrong to leave the final judgment to the judicial branch even though the presidential impeachment is a political dispute. But the political nature of the presidential impeachment does not automatically make the Constitutional Court's decision political. Rather, the stronger the political character, the more faithful the Constitutional Court will try to be to the literary and logical interpretation based on normative principles. In the two presidential impeachment cases, the Constitutional Court used the principle of prohibition of excessive restriction, particularly balancing test, in the process of argumentation for conclusion.

The Constitutional Court as a Political Crisis Manager

While the Korean National Assembly, a symbol of representative and majoritarian democracy, was found to lack problem-solving ability on political issues that had attracted public attention, the Korean Constitutional Court emerged as a new problem- solver. A very large proportion of the high-profile cases brought for decision to the Constitutional Court involved intense political controversies which might have led to political crisis. The state of the presidential impeachment is both a crisis of democracy and a crisis of the Constitution. The resolution of the problem was concluded by the judicial judgment of the Constitutional Court, and the two governance crises in 2004 and 2016 ended in considerable stability in the fields of politics, administration, economy, and society. The Constitutional Court can help the political process and the virtuous cycle of deliberation through constitutional trials. In order for the Constitutional Court to preserve its independence in a dynamic political surroundings and continue to play the role of protecting the Constitution, it needs the development of democracy and autonomous public support and monitoring.

Political–economic instability and earnings management in an emerging market: the case of the 2016 Presidential Impeachment in Brazil

PurposeThis study analyzes earnings management among Brazilian public firms during the 2016 Presidential Impeachment.Design/methodology/approachThe sample comprises, as a treatment group, 721 firm-quarter observations relating to Brazilian listed firms. It also considers a control group of listed firms from Mexico, which were not affected by the exogenous shock analyzed (i.e. the 2016 Presidential Impeachment in Brazil). The firms' quarterly financial data cover the period between 2013 and 2018.FindingsConsidering several proxies related to earnings management by accruals, the main findings suggest a negative relationship between the 2016 impeachment event and the level of discretionary accruals, suggesting that Brazilian firms tended to reduce their earnings management levels during the impeachment process. The results are robust whether the control group is considered or not.Originality/valueThis study brings new empirical evidence to the literature on accounting information quality about the role of the economic and political environment in earnings management, especially in weak institution countries characterized by institutional voids and higher levels of corruption.

Three Models of Presidential Impeachment in South America

This article systematises procedures for dismissing a Head of State in the countries of South America. We look at the genesis of introducing impeachment to the constitutions of countries in this part of the world, paying close attention to the specific historical background of the Western Hemisphere, then focusing on the categorization and systematisation of the procedure itself. We present three models of the presidential impeachment in South America: Judicial, Bicameral and Unicameral. Using a contextual approach, doctrinal research, comparative method and theory-building strategy, we discuss the general features of these models and the specificities of use in each country of the continent.

Observing the pink cloud from Greece and the Southern Cone: Crisis, critique and the promise of queer feminist cinema

A series of entangled crisis-scapes have been unfolding in the past decade in Chile, Argentina and Brazil – geographies that have been central to discourses of and about the Global South. Ranging from presidential impeachment and military control to inflation and austerity, Chilean, Argentinian and Brazilian crisis-scapes have given rise to filmic expressions of queer feminist critique that challenge neo-liberal governmentality. This article focuses on indicative cinematic tendencies in these three countries, while taking into account the author’s positionality as a (Greek) researcher engaged in the anthropology of cinema and neo-liberalism. Swinging back and forth from Greece to the Southern Cone, the aim of the article is to extract what is affectively shared between seemingly disparate subjectivities and experiences of coping with the present of crises. One of the things shared is queer survivalism, as manifested in the short fiction films Apodrasi apo ton Efthrafsto Planiti (Escaping the Fragile Planet, 2020) by Thanasis Tsimpinis and Os últimos românticos do mundo (The Last Romantics of the World, 2020) by Henrique Arruda – both featuring a gay couple getting through their last day on Earth while a toxic pink cloud destroys the planet.

Measuring Cross-Correlations, Contagion and Long-Range Behavior between Fires in Brazil and Some Time Series Related to Its Economic Growth

Fires bring up the debate about their impact on Brazil’s economic growth. Some processing tools such as cointegration and, especially, the correlation have been applied for identifying possible transmission or contagion mechanisms between distinct time series. This paper adopts the detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) and rolling window approach to investigate the dynamic coupling between fires and the evolution of some key variables related to Brazil’s economic growth (e.g., agricultural planted area, ethanol production, rainfall in the midwest region and gross domestic product) covering two periods, namely from January 2012 to August 2016 (before the Brazilian presidential impeachment occurred in 2016) and from September 2016 to April 2021, covering the post-impeachment scenario, with the new government policies in the environmental sector. The results show a positive cross-correlation between the level of fires versus planted area of all cereals, leguminous and oleaginous in Brazil (mostly Soybean and Corn) and versus ethanol production (a renewable energy generation). It is also possible to verify some impact level on the Brazilian gross domestic product. Furthermore, we observed quantitatively, by means of the adopted methods that fires in Brazil have the potential to damage economic growth and some activities addressed in this study can also harm the environment in both mid and long-term.

Karakteristik Pemakzulan Presiden di Indonesia

One of the features of the presidential system is the process of presidential impeachment. Before the amendment, Indonesia did not have a clear mechanism to impeach the president in the middle of his term. The impeachment of the president is determined by a majority vote in the People’s Consultative Assembly. This is a problem because the impeachment of the president only uses a political process, and there is no legal process in it. After the amendment, the presidential impeachment concept was born that in a presidential system, the president cannot be dismissed only through a political process; there must be a legal process before the political process. Based on the analysis, the process of presidential impeachment in Indonesia does not follow the principle of checks and balances. This is because the impeachment process for the president in Indonesia does not involve the second chamber in the process

Do fiscal opacity, fiscal impulse, and fiscal credibility affect disagreement about economic growth forecasts? Empirical evidence from Brazil considering the period of political instability and presidential impeachment

AbstractThis study investigates the effects of fiscal opacity, fiscal impulse, and fiscal credibility on disagreement about economic growth forecasts. Regarding fiscal opacity, as a novelty, we use an indicator that captures the ignorance of financial market experts about the real budget balance condition. Fiscal impulse is represented by two fiscal impulse indicators, while fiscal credibility is represented by two credibility indexes. The findings suggest an increase in fiscal opacity and the adoption of discretionary fiscal policy raise disagreement about economic growth forecasts. The results suggest that fiscal credibility improvements reduce disagreement about economic growth forecasts.

Timber housing economy in Brazil: 2013 to 2022 scenarios and crises

Timber housing sector has several features and is essential for civil construction and forestry chains. In Brazil, the economy related to timber housing is still an unprecedented topic. Thus, the paper aimed to estimate scenarios to delimit the annual volume of this sector. Three years were studied from rare data available in the literature. From these national outcomes, projections for next years were developed. Multiple case approaches composed the literature-based methodology. As a result, the sector endured distinct internal and external economic instabilities, whose associated factors compiled political and sanitary crises, specially, with negative influences. The economy of timber housing reached an average about 500 million Dollars in 2014, being halved in 2015 due to the government crisis marked by the impeachment of the Brazilian president. From 2016 to 2019, small improvements were verified for this sector. In 2020, this favorable scenario was stagnated by the global Covid-19 pandemic. After 2021, a sectoral recovery is forecast based on positive expectations on the Brazilian economy. The two-year period of domestic presidential impeachment was more economically catastrophic than the current three-year phase of sanitary pandemic with global implications. From our economic forecasts, it was possible to attest that the Brazilian sector of timber houses is economically perceptible.