Russian Presidential Election Research Articles

A Russian-American News Cross-Coverage. A Hidden Threat to the Democratic Way of Life

ABSTRACT This research is a comparative content analysis of the media coverage of presidential elections in Russia and America in 2012. The theoretical framework for this research came from the three classical works by Walter Lippmann published a century ago. This study is a centennial anniversary empirically grounded reexamination of his ideas. The research found a stark contrast between the ways the American and Russian media covered the elections in the counterpart country. Consequently, it is found that at that time it is not Russian but the American media outlet acted in a way that could present a danger for democracy.

Spatial modelling of voting preferences: The “Mystery” of the Republic of Tatarstan

We argue neighbors play a crucial role in voting behavior for the main candidate in Russia. Moreover, the official status of the region and connectedness with the ruling party matter. The neighborhood effects we explain with the idea that voters base on public choices and illustrate it on the example of Privolzhskiy federal district regions with an emphasis on Tatarstan and its effect on voting on the municipal level. The Republic of Tatarstan is an interesting case also because it is the republic in Russia that has reference to sovereignty in its constitution and at the same time is loyal to the Kremlin. This paper presents a detailed spatial analysis of voters’ responses at the municipal level covering Russian presidential elections in 2018 year using the example of the Republic of Tatarstan and its surrounding regions. The preferred 2-step OLS specification with instruments shows that Tatarstan had a strong positive effect on neighboring regions in terms of voting for the main candidate, while surrounding regions voted differently and negatively affected each other. Municipalities with better economic conditions had a negative impact on the share of votes for the main candidate and positive for the opposite.

“The stiletto in Putin’s side”: Analyzing Russian media coverage of the only female presidential candidate in 2018

ABSTRACT Ksenia Sobchak, the only female candidate to make it to Election Day in the 2018 Russian presidential elections, faced many gender and political hurdles. We conducted quantitative content-analysis of Russian media coverage to see whether coverage added to these challenges. Using social role theory, we discussed how the five most popular Russian online news outlets labeled Sobchak, covered political issues and character traits. The results showed that news outlets used more legitimizing than delegitimizing labels, emphasized masculine issues and feminine traits. Comparing “credible” and tabloid press revealed mixed findings and highlights how outlets within these categories can differ in Russia.

«ЦВЕТНЫЕ РЕВОЛЮЦИИ» НА ПОСТСОВЕТСКОМ ПРОСТРАНСТВЕ: СТАБИЛЬНОСТЬ И ИЗМЕНЧИВОСТЬ РЕЖИМА КАК СЛЕДСТВИЕ ОТСТУПНИЧЕСТВА ЭЛИТ

Why did «coloured revolutions» in Georgia (2003), Kyrgyzstan (2005) and Ukraine (2004) happen? To answer the question, the paper focuses on the shared feature of post-Soviet states – regime cyclicity, explained by the existence of the entrenched patronal presidentialism institutions. At critical moments when the incumbent turns into a lame duck and her departure is mostly expected, the regime runs the risk that elites become disunified and strong opposition consequently emerges. Then the relationship between the incumbent’s designated successor and elites revolves around the possible defection of the latter to the challenger. The article models such a situation in the form of a repeated game, where elites appear as a receiver in the «bargain» during the presidential campaign. Depending on who is preferred – the successor or the challenger – an outcome is either regime perpetuation or a “coloured revolution” caused by mass elite defection to the opposition. The derived hypotheses are tested on the cases of presidential elections in Russia (1999-2000) and Ukraine (2004). As analysis reveals, the three theoretical expectations draw sufficient empirical support, while a special role in determining a winner is ascribed to candidates’ popularity, which becomes of utmost importance closer to the end of the race.

‘Alien Elections’: Neighboring State News on the 2018 Russian Presidential Elections

News media tend to reflect voices in the political establishment while covering international events. Is it still true when almost half of the national audience speak the language of the country featured in the coverage? In this paper, we present an analysis of 19.5k news messages collected from Russian-language Ukrainian news outlets covering the 2018 presidential elections in Russia. Using a mixed-method approach (topic modeling and qualitative reading), we identify key topics and stories and evaluate the extent of personalization in the election coverage. We find three central angles: the focus on polls and election results, election preparations in Crimea, and Vladimir Putin’s victory. The elections are linked predominantly to Crimean issues through the date of the elections, each candidate’s stance on the subject, the election management in the region, and other countries’ reactions to the results. Such coverage has an accusatory bias; it stresses the legal status of the Crimean referendum and the Russian authorities’ actions and reports the pressures on locals by authorities, especially the Crimean Tatars. Not linked directly to Crimea, other angles are less emotionally charged. Political personalization of the discussion has a contradictory nature. On one hand, the overwhelming majority of the messages mention public figures. On the other hand, the coverage of the figures is limited and omits their traits. Moreover, at times, public figures are replaced by non-personalized symbols (e.g., Kremlin, Russian invaders). However, if the former’s coverage is predominantly neutral, the latter’s coverage is more prone to negative and loaded statements.

CELLULAR AUTOMATON WITH PERCOLATION AS A DYNAMIC SYSTEM: ENTROPY APPROACH

A model of information confrontation based on a two-dimensional percolation-cellular automaton on a closed oriented surface is constructed and implemented programmatically. Numerical experiments were performed. A theorem on the finiteness of a completely positive topological entropy of a given cellular automaton is formulated and proved. As an applied application of the constructed automaton, a retrospective forecast of the results of the Russian Presidential election in 2018 was made both in Russia as a whole and in two regions of Russia. The General logic of using the automaton was as follows. At the preparatory stage, a model of the region was built, which is a field of a cellular automaton. In the case of regions, anamorphic mapping was used, in which each territorial-administrative unit is represented by a certain number of cells that occupy a connected area of the field of the automaton; the areas of these areas are proportional to the number of voters, and if possible, geographical neighbors are preserved. The color of the cell corresponds to a certain political position; for example, if a certain city has 60% support for the President, then this percentage of cells in that city is red. As initial data for the calculation, the results of sociological surveys on support for the current President conducted 6-12 months before the election were taken; the dynamics of the system is modeled using a cellular automaton; for the formed stationary solution, the shares of cells corresponding to the number of supporters and opponents of the President, as well as non-appearance, are calculated; these shares are taken as a forecast of election results. Those constructed in this way showed significantly lower accuracy than forecasts made using standard sociological methods in the last days before the election. However, they can be used for early forecasting. The reason for this difference is that the opinions of voters immediately prior to elections are determined by campaign, and long before the election - the prevalence and embeddedness of value orientations, which is incorporated in the model.

Russian Elections in Post-Soviet Eurasia: The Factor of Diaspora

The article is devoted to the peculiarities of holding Russian elections in neighboring countries. Using the example of the Russian presidential elections in 2018 in Belarus, Moldova and the Baltic states, the results of voting, the peculiarities of the organization of the expression of will and the final turnout are analyzed. Based on quantitative and qualitative data, as well as comparative analysis, measures are proposed to improve the process of foreign voting in Russian elections.

YouTube as Alternative Television in Russia: Political Videos During the Presidential Election Campaign 2018

Previous studies on “youtubification” of political communication (May, 2010) have largely focused on democratic contexts. This study aims at exploring the role of the global video-sharing platform in non-democratic political communication, using the example of the Russian presidential election of 2018. It draws on the qualitative content analysis of 169 political videos collected from the “Popular” section of Russian YouTube during the last 2 months of the presidential campaign. The results show that oppositional discourse dominated the most popular political videos of Russian YouTube and that pro-state actors tried to co-opt the platform, publishing videos made in amateur and semi-professional styles that imitated user-generated content. Drawing on the findings, I discuss the risks and benefits of YouTube publics for the Russian authoritarian regime and the role of social media platforms in consultative authoritarianism.

Presidential Elections in Russia: Opportunities and Limitations of Electoral Consolidation

ABSTRACT This article analyzes the processes of electoral consolidation around incumbents, as well as around opposition candidates, in Russian presidential elections. On the basis of a comparative analysis of the parliamentary and presidential campaigns over six electoral cycles, the author identifies shifts in the turnout and voting patterns for candidates in presidential elections in comparison to the previous State Duma elections. His research shows that almost all viable candidates in presidential elections rely on the electorate of a certain party—usually the one that nominates the candidate (the only important exception to this rule was the vote for P. Grudinin in the 2018 election). The study also shows that an increase in turnout in presidential elections plays into the hands of the incumbent (except for B. Yeltsin in 1996), although in some cases it can boost support for a strong opposition candidate (G. Zyuganov in 1996) or an entirely new candidate (M. Prokhorov in 2012). Having compared voting patterns between parliamentary and presidential elections, the author comes to the conclusion that an incumbent is usually able to win over ambivalent voters and, depending on the political context, voters from various party clusters; for example, supporters of A Just Russia, LDPR, liberal parties, and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (at the level of certain regions). Opposition candidates possess much more limited opportunities for this kind of consolidation or lack them altogether. The author interprets these trends as a manifestation of strategic voting based on voters’ rational choice in favor of the incumbent. English translation © 2019 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC, from the Russian text © 2018 “Politiia.” “Prezidentskie vybory v Rossii: Vozmozhnosti i predely elektoral’noi konsolidatsii,” Politiia, 2018, no. 2(89), pp. 23-50. Rostislav Feliksovich Turovsky is a doctor of political science and a professor in the School of Political Science, Faculty of Social Sciences, of the National Research University Higher School of Economics. Translated by Lucy Gunderson. Translation reprinted from Russian Politics and Law, vol. 56, nos. 3-6. DOI:10.1080/10611940.2019.1784629.

Eleição Presidencial da Rússia em 2018: debates presidenciais e a audiência no Youtube

Este trabalho traz cinco hipóteses sobre a eleição presidencial russa de (2018) e o padrão de uso do Youtube: a) Putin provavelmente foi o candidato mais popular; (b) possivelmente os debates afetaram o interesse por candidatos; (c) possivelmente os debates pressões distintas no interesse por candidatos; (d) o último debate (próximo ao dia D) possivelmente foi o que mais gerou acessos; (e) possivelmente, as buscas no Youtube afetaram pouco as intenções de voto. Os resultados corroboram as hipóteses e apontam para um ciberespaço político russo que age como contrapeso à falta de espaço dos candidatos nos meios de comunicação de massa.

Media Linguistic Features of Russian and American Presidential Election Debates

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Between Politics and Show Business: Public Discourse on Social Media Regarding Ksenia Sobchak, the Only Female Candidate in the 2018 Russian Presidential Election

The article analyzes the public discourse on social media regarding the only female candidate in the 2018 Russian presidential election. Ksenia Sobchak is a famous Russian public figure who started as a TV personality and subsequently changed her image to become a serious journalist and finally a politician. The figure of Sobchak is an interesting topic to study for a number of reasons. Firstly, the issue of women in politics is poorly studied in communication research due to their low representation in political sphere. Secondly, Sobchak undermines traditional views about women in society; that is why looking at Sobchak as a presidential candidate allows a researcher not only to consider this case study through the lens of Sobchak’s image as a politician but also to understand the public attitudes towards women with an active civic position in the Russian society. The paper examines the public discussion on social media related to the Sobchak campaign. The authors analyze the messages within five top social media websites (Facebook, Instagram, Odnoklassniki, Vkontakte, Twitter). Computer-assisted sentiment analysis shows that Sobchak’s background as a scandalous TV host has had a negative impact on her political career. Public discourse in the sample under consideration was predominantly focused on the scandals related to Sobchak’s past and least related to her statements during the electoral competition.

The cult of Russianicity: mobilising anti-fascist affect in Putin’s Russia

ABSTRACT This article argues that after the Russian presidential election in 2012, the Kremlin mobilised a populist, anti-fascist affect called ‘Russianicity’ that Vladimir Putin used to help legitimate his third term as president. This article also traces how this state-led effort intertwined with the consumer commodity cult known as ‘Putiniana’ which functioned as an index of changing public sentiment towards Putin. Putin’s cultivation of the ribbon of Saint George as a sign of victory against fascism during his first two terms is examined in conjunction with a Putiniana marked by an ambivalence about Russian national identity and economic prosperity. In the wake of economic decline, mass protests against Putin’s third presidency, and the 2014 Ukrainian Revolution, Russian state-controlled television manufactured a fascist threat from Ukraine intended to generate fear and panic. Subsequently, Putiniana more frequently invoked the ribbon of Saint George, which Putin leveraged to position himself as a unique leader capable of dealing with the fascist menace. This development culminated in Putin’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula and consequently led to a new stage of Putiniana signifying the restoration of Russia back to geopolitical greatness.

Values and electoral behavior of Russian citizens at presidential elections (2012, 2018): constancy and variability

Based on the empirical data of two sociological studies conducted in accordance with the uniform methodology using the personal questionnaire method in April 2012 and May 2018 (almost immediately after the election of the President of the Russian Federation), the article analyzes the structure of values of Russian urban voters, influencing their attitude to participation in the presidential elections and to the competing candidates. The socio-economic and socio-political conditions in Russia and their influence on the structure of values of urban voters are considered in the article. The article reveals the reasons why the fewer urban voters participated in the elections and a much larger number of them voted for Vladimir Putin when the economic situation of voters deteriorated in 2012 compared to 2018.The article shows that the structure of values of urban voters remains predominantly “materialistic” (according to Ronald Inglehart). The influence of the value structure of voters on their participation in voting at the presidential election and on the support of a certain candidate is revealed. On the basis of comparing the results of the presidential elections in 2012 and 2018, it is shown that during 6 years the ideological spectrum of candidates has expanded and began to express a wider range of political views on the further development of Russian society and state — from extremely liberal, democratic to extremely conservative, totalitarian, which is essential feature of the modern Russian party and political system. The middle of this spectrum was represented by liberal conservatism of Vladimir Putin, and his support in 2018 reflects a shift in the values of urban voters from the extreme right and the extreme left to the middle, toward liberal conservatism that is becoming inherent in an increasing number of urban voters.It is revealed that within the framework of the “materialistic” value structure of urban voters, the value of material wealth does not play a significant role when voters choose the future development of Russia. The value of unselfish patriotism and family is in the first place. The difficult political conditions in Russia in 2018 gave the voters patriotism a militant character that was absent in 2012. It united Russian society around Vladimir Putin even more and was the cause of a significant increase in his support from voters. Liberal component of conservatism in the program of Vladimir Putin (the expansion of economic, political, and spiritual freedoms) led to his support from moderately liberal voters. All these factors together predetermined the great success of Vladimir Putin in the presidential elections in Russia in 2018.

Student’s attitude towards campaign communication (on the example of 2018 Russian presidential election

The subject of this research is the attitude of student youth towards particular instruments of campaign communication. Among most commonly used techniques of influencing the citizens’ electoral behavior are the political advertising, mass media materials, debates, announcements of the leaders of public opinion. However, the factors important for making electoral decisions differ one age group to another. In this context, of special interest is the student youth that is more perceptive to modern methods of communication via mobile apps and other Internet technologies. The presented results are based on the data of focus groups studying in Saint Petersburg State University, acquired in the course of research “The factors of formation of absenteeism of student youth in the Russian megalopolis (on the example Saint Petersburg)” conducted in 2018 with technical support of the Resource Center of Sociological and Internet surveys of Saint Petersburg State University. The authors determine the following specificities of political communication prevalent in daily practices of student youth: distrust in such classical methods of campaign communication as debates; more trust in the online mass media rather than traditional; ambivalent stance of media leaders of public opinion; significance of the institution of family in formation of political views and decision-making. The impact of social networks creates a request for a renewed format of communication among students. The information must be easy accessible, appear as the first ling in search request, and presented in a form of standard post with a vivid visual component.

Моральные основания и намерение участвовать в голосовании на выборах президента России

Objectives. The aim was to study the relationship between moral foundations and intention of voting on the presidential elections in Russia. Background. Voting in political elections is important for consensus of society but a large proportion of voters don’t vote that may depend on psychological characteristics among other factors. There is a growing interest in the world in the moral factors of political preferences and voter turnout due to the elaboration of moral foundations theory. However, the relation between moral sphere and intention to vote as well as possible mediators of this relation remains understudied. Study design. The correlational design with subsequent structural equation modeling was used. The survey was conducted in 2018, 2—6 weeks before the Russian presidential elections. Participants. 126 university students at the age from 18 to 50 years old (80% are women). Measurements. To test these hypotheses we used the Moral foundations questionnaire (by J. Graham et al.), the questionnaire of political engagement elaborated for this research and the questionnaire about intention to vote and some socio-demographic variables. Results. The structural equation modeling showed that binding moral foundations were associated with interest to politics which in turn predicted the intention to vote. We also confirmed the known from the previous researches trend to less intention of voting in youth. Using path analysis we found out that less intention of voting in younger voters was due to their less loyalty and weak interest to politics. Conclusions. The intention of voting on the presidential elections depends on the political engagement related with the binding moral foundations.

The Co-optation of Dissent in Hybrid States: Post-Soviet Graffiti in Moscow

Hybrid leaders seek job security. To stay in power, it may be intuitive that they respond to dissent with a heavy hand. However, these leaders are subject to accountability and concerned with legitimacy and therefore must consider the optics of their decisions. By co-opting a previously independent avenue of communication and its leadership, the state eliminates challengers, curates its public image through trusted social leaders, and reinforces control without resorting to repressive methods that may backfire. Based on a decade of fieldwork, data collection, and expert interviews, I evidence the co-optation of dissent via thematic, spatial, and material shifts in political public art, crafted between the 2012 and 2018 Russian presidential elections. As it consolidated power during this time, the Putin administration co-opted critical graffiti artists and flooded out those unwilling to cooperate, replacing subversive and anonymous anti-regime graffiti with Kremlin-curated murals, particularly in the city center.

Медиаобраз и политический имидж: закономерности корреляции двух конструктов

The article examines the phenomenon of media image and political image. The material for the study was the media representation of V. Zhirinovsky and K. Sobchak as candidates for the presidency of Russian Federation in the fields of television (in the information and socio-political programs of First Channel, ARTRBC (“Russia 1”, “Russia 24”), NTV, “RenTV”, Fifth Channel, “TV Center”) and the Internet (materials of news portals “RIA News”, “REGNUM”, “TASS”, “Interfax”, “Izvestia”, “Vedomosti”, “Meduza”; posts in social networks “VKontakte”, “Facebook”). The methods of contentanalysis, intent-analysis (through the system “Medialogia”), secondary data analysis — the results of sociological studies of All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center (ARPORC), Public Opinion Foundation (POF), Levada Center and the presidential elections in Russia. Chronological framework of the study: November 2017 — March 2018. The author comes to the conclusion about the existence of interdependence and conditional identity of the phenomenon of political image and media image, which influence the construction of each other. At the same time, excessive mediatization of political actors (outside the respective ritualized locales and contexts) leads to their self-discredit — the loss of the “credibility” of both the potential and the real electorate.

Институт наблюдателей на выборах, как фактор легитимации власти в современной России

Fragmentary outbursts of the protest that took place in the run-up to the Russian legislative election and the Russian presidential election in 2011–2012 led to the intensification of observation as a form of democratization of the electoral process. The Institute of Observers acts as a guarantor of the respect of electoral rights of citizens, provides a high level of transparency and openness of the electoral process, allows to identify violations and assess the legality of the vote. This paper examines the phenomenon of the public control over elections in the context of the main tool for legitimizing the power structures in the Russian Federation. The institute of election monitoring has undergone changes since 2011: number of election observers has grown, the qualification of observers has significantly improved, the range of monitors’ rights has expanded, and the level of their protection has risen. The amendments to the Federal Law «On the Election of the President of the Russian Federation» that were adopted before the presidential elections in 2018 allowed to democratize the observation process. Representatives from the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation and regional public chambers were included to the movement of observers. At present, certain measures are being considered to reduce the engagement of observers in electoral processes at all levels.

Особенности кампании по выборам президента России 2018 г.

The research deals with the aspects of the 2018 Russian Presidential Election Campaign and com-pares it with previous ones. An attempt is made to both identify the novel elements of the last cam-paign and trace its continuous and traditional na-ture. For instance, the particular attention of authori-ties to voter turnout became a distinctive feature of the 2018 Russian Presidential Election Campaign. To this end, absentee ballots were cancelled, and citi-zens were able to vote at any polling station upon advance online registration. A week and disor-ganized protest movement was typical for the 2018 election campaign in contrast to the 2012 campaign. It may be influenced by shifting public opinion be-cause of the reunification of Crimea with Russia and the imposition of Western sanctions on the Russian Federation. The research notes that voters regard the 2018 election campaign as a transition to the 2024 election since it is Putin’s final presidential term, and further state development program will be implemented by a new leader of the country.