Prescription Drug Insurance Research Articles

How Do Consumers Interact with Digital Expert Advice? Experimental Evidence from Health Insurance

Consumers increasingly use digital advice when making purchasing decisions. How do such tools change consumer behavior and what types of consumers are likely to use them? We examine these questions with a randomized controlled trial of digital expert advice in the context of prescription drug insurance. The intervention we study was effective at changing consumer choices. We propose that, conceptually, expert advice can affect consumer choices through two distinct channels: by updating consumer beliefs about product features (learning) and by influencing how much consumers value product features (interpretation). Using our trial data to estimate a model of consumer demand, we find that both channels are quantitatively important. Digital expert advice tools not only provide consumers with information, but also alter how consumers value product features. For example, consumers are willing to pay 14% less for a plan with the most popular brand and 37% less for an extra star rating when they incorporate digital expert advice on plan choice relative to only having information about product features. Further, we document substantial selection into the use of digital advice on two margins. Consumers who are inherently less active shoppers and those who we predict would have responded to advice more were less likely to demand it. Our results raise concerns regarding the ability of digital advice to alter consumer preferences as well as the distributional implications of greater access to digital expert advice. This paper was accepted by Stefan Scholtes, healthcare management. Funding: This work was supported by the National Institute on Aging [Grant K01AG059843] and the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute [Grant CDR-1306-03598]. The project also received financial support from Stanford Innovation Funds. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.02453 .

Treatment with psychostimulants and atomoxetine in people with psychotic disorders: reassessing the risk of clinical deterioration in a real-world setting.

Although attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is often comorbid with schizophrenia spectrum and other psychotic disorders (SZSPD), concerns about an increased risk of psychotic events have limited its treatment with either psychostimulants or atomoxetine. To examine whether the risk of hospital admission for psychosis in people with SZSPD was increased during the year following the introduction of such medications compared with the year before. This was a retrospective cohort study using Quebec (Canada) administrative health registries, including all Quebec residents with a public prescription drug insurance plan and a diagnosis of psychotic disorder, defined by relevant ICD-9 or ICD-10 codes, who initiated either methylphenidate, amphetamines or atomoxetine, between January 2010 and December 2016, in combination with antipsychotic medication. The primary outcome was time to hospital admission for psychosis within 1 year of initiation. State sequence analysis was also used to visualise admission trajectories for psychosis in the year following initiation of these medications, compared with the previous year. Out of 2219 individuals, 1589 (71.6%) initiated methylphenidate, 339 (15.3%) amphetamines and 291 (13.1%) atomoxetine during the study period. After adjustment, the risk of hospital admission for psychosis was decreased during the 12 months following the introduction of these medications when used in combination with antipsychotics (adjusted HR = 0.36, 95% CI 0.24-0.54; P < 0.0001). These findings suggest that, in a real-world setting, when used concurrently with antipsychotic medication, methylphenidate, amphetamines and atomoxetine may be safer than generally believed in individuals with psychotic disorders.

Pharmaceutical demand response to utilization management

Prescription drug insurance increasingly imposes prior authorization (requiring providers to request coverage before claim approval) to manage utilization. Prior authorization has been criticized because of its administrative burden on providers. The primary alternative to managing utilization is imposing out-of-pocket (OOP) payment to incentivize beneficiaries to seek lower-cost care, effectively providing beneficiaries with partial insurance. Would beneficiaries prefer indirectly paying for prior authorization through higher premiums; or would they prefer prior authorization was replaced by higher OOP costs? This tradeoff depends on how much OOP costs could be displaced by prior authorization, which depends on their relative impact on demand. I estimate the effect of prior authorization and OOP costs on pharmaceutical demand in Medicare Part D, addressing endogeneity caused by unobserved drug quality and selection into plans. Despite criticism of prior authorization, I find that Medicare beneficiaries would prefer higher premiums to pay for prior authorization, over higher OOP costs.

The effect of prescription drug insurance on the incidence of potentially inappropriate prescribing: Evidence from Medicare Part D.

The Medicare Part D program has been documented to increase the affordability and accessibility of drugs and improve the quality of prescription drug use; however, less is known about the equity impact of the Part D program on potentially inappropriate prescribing-specifically, incidences of polypharmacy and potentially inappropriate medication (PIM) use based on different racial/ethnic groups. Using a difference in the regression discontinuity design, we found that among Whites, Part D was associated with increases in polypharmacy and "broadly defined" PIM use, while the use of "always avoid" PIM remained unchanged. Conversely, Blacks and Hispanics reported no changes in such drug utilization patterns.

Trajectories of opioid consumption as predictors of patient-reported outcomes among individuals attending multidisciplinary pain treatment clinics.

This study aimed to identify opioid consumption trajectories among persons living with chronic pain (CP) and put them in relation to patient-reported outcomes 6 months after initiating multidisciplinary pain treatment. This study used data from the Quebec Pain Registry (2008-2014) linked to longitudinal Quebec health insurance databases. We included adults diagnosed with CP and covered by the Quebec public prescription drug insurance plan. The daily cumulative opioid doses in the first 6 months after initiating multidisciplinary pain treatment were transformed into morphine milligram equivalents. An individual-centered approach involving principal factor and cluster analyses applied to longitudinal statistical indicators of opioid use was conducted to classify trajectories. Multivariate regression models were applied to evaluate the associations between trajectory group membership and outcomes at 6-month follow-up (pain intensity, pain interference, depression, and physical and mental health-related quality of life). We identified three trajectories of opioid consumption: "no or very low and stable" opioid consumption (n = 2067, 96.3%), "increasing" opioid consumption (n = 40, 1.9%), and "decreasing" opioid consumption (n = 39, 1.8%). Patients in the "no or very low and stable" trajectory were less likely to be current smokers, experience polypharmacy, use opioids or benzodiazepine preceding their first visit, or experience pain interference at treatment initiation. Patients in the "increasing" opioid consumption group had significantly greater depression scores at 6-month compared to patients in the "no or very low and stable" trajectory group. Opioid consumption trajectories do not seem to be important determinants of most PROs 6 months after initiating multidisciplinary pain treatment.

The impact of prescription drug insurance on cost related non-adherence to medications in Canada: A Heckman sample selection approach.

Unlike some other high-income counties, Canada does not provide universal prescription drug coverage. The various extent of coverage may left some Canadians vulnerable to cost-related non-adherence (CRNA) to medications. Using data from the 2015 national cycle of the Canadian Community Health Survey, we examine the impact of having private and public drug coverage on mitigating the risk of CRNA with a logit model and a Heckman selection model. CRNA was only observed in respondents who had prescriptions to fill, and respondents did not randomly make decisions on whether to get a prescription. This results in a classic sample selection problem. We found a higher estimated probability of reporting CRNA for uninsured respondents from the Heckman selection model than from the logit model. Respondents with government coverage only had a slightly higher probability of reporting CRNA relative to respondents with private coverage. These findings suggest that, without accounting for sample selection, the risk of not having drug insurance coverage is likely to be underestimated. Moreover, despite covering a less healthy cohort of respondents, the government insurance plans reduce risk of CRNA to a comparable level with private insurance.

The impact of a mandatory universal drug insurance program on health behaviors and outcomes.

This paper investigates the effects of a mandatory, universal prescription drug insurance policy on health behaviors and outcomes within a public health care system providing physician and hospital services free of charge. Using Canadian longitudinal data, we show that the reform improved individuals' general health while reducing body mass index and smoking. However, the program also increased drinking and had no significant impact on mental health, physical activity, or preventive care. We also examine the mechanisms through which these effects can play a role, as well as the heterogeneous effects. Estimates suggest that the policy decreased SES-based disparities in health.

HPR136 The Associations of Prescription Drug Insurance and Cost-Sharing With Drug Use, Health Services Use, and Health – A Systematic Review of Canadian Studies

HPR136 The Associations of Prescription Drug Insurance and Cost-Sharing With Drug Use, Health Services Use, and Health – A Systematic Review of Canadian Studies

Prescription Drug Insurance and Cost-Related Medication Nonadherence Among Lesbian, Gay, and Bisexual Individuals in Canada.

Purpose: This study estimates the frequency of uninsurance for prescription drugs and cost-related medication nonadherence (CRNA) among lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) persons in Canada, compared with the heterosexual population. Methods: Logistic regression was used to quantify associations between sexual orientation, insurance status, and CRNA within the national probability-based Canadian Community Health Survey, 2015-2016. This sample included 98,413 individuals aged 15-80 years, including 2803 LGB individuals. Results: From our sample of Canadians, 22.2% of LGB respondents reported being uninsured for prescription drugs, compared with 20.0% of heterosexual persons (unadjusted odds ratio [UOR] 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.97-1.35). LGB individuals had more than twice the odds of reporting CRNA compared with heterosexual individuals (UOR 2.48, 95% CI 1.99-3.10). This disparity was most pronounced among bisexual respondents, who had over three times the odds of reporting CRNA in comparison to heterosexual respondents (UOR 3.45, 95% CI 2.65-4.51). The odds ratio (OR) for CRNA comparing bisexual with heterosexual individuals remained statistically significant after adjustment for race/ethnicity, gender/sex, and age (OR 2.67, 95% CI 1.97-3.61) and was further attenuated with adjustment for partnership status, employment status, income, educational attainment, prescription drug insurance status, general health status, and immigration status (OR 2.09, 95% CI 1.51-2.89). Conclusion: LGB Canadians reported more CRNA but comparable prescription drug insurance frequencies to heterosexual persons. Factors pertaining to medication access (e.g., income, partnership status) and health needs appear to be the most important contributors to disparities.

Financial hardship from purchasing prescription drugs among older adults in the United States before, during, and after the Medicare Part D "Donut Hole": Findings from 1998, 2001, 2015, and 2021.

BACKGROUND: Cost-related nonadherence compromises successful and effective management of chronic disease. The Medicare Modernization Act of 2003 (MMA) and Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 (ACA) aimed to increase the affordability of outpatient prescription drugs for older adults (older than age 64 years). The Medicare Part D prescription drug insurance coverage gap ("donut hole") created by the MMA was fully closed in 2020 by the ACA. OBJECTIVES: To (1) describe prescription drug coverage and financial hardship from purchasing prescription drugs among older American adults for 2021, (2) compare these results with findings from data collected before the MMA and during the progressive elimination of the Medicare Part D coverage gap, and (3) compute the likelihood for financial hardship from purchasing prescription drugs using variables for year, prescription drug insurance coverage, health-related information, and demographics. METHODS: Data were obtained from 4 nationally distributed, crosssectional surveys of older adults to track coverage for and financial hardship from purchasing prescription drugs. Surveys in 1998 and 2001 were mailed to national random samples of US seniors. Of 2,434 deliverable surveys, 700 (29%) provided useable data. Data were collected in 2015 and 2021 via online surveys sent to samples of US adults. Of 27,694 usable responses, 4,445 were from older adults. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression analyses described relationships among financial hardship and demographics, diagnoses, and daily prescription drug use. RESULTS: Five percent of older adults lacked prescription drug coverage in 2021, continuing a downward trend from 32% in 1998, 29% in 2001, and 9% in 2015. Contrastingly, 20% of older adults reported financial hardship from prescription drug purchases in 2021, bending an upward trend from 19% in 1998, 31% in 2001, and 36% in 2015. Financial hardship from purchasing prescription drugs was more likely to be reported by older adults lacking prescription drug insurance, taking multiple medications daily, and having a low annual household income across all survey years. The latter 2 of these 3 factors were still predictive of financial hardship from purchasing prescription drugs among older adults with prescription drug insurance. CONCLUSIONS: Financial hardship from purchasing prescription drugs is still experienced by many older adults after the full implementation of the MMA and ACA. Lacking prescription drug coverage, taking more than 5 prescription drugs daily, and a low annual household income may increase the likelihood of experiencing this financial hardship. Pharmacists can be a resource for older adults making choices about their prescription drug coverages and purchases. DISCLOSURES: Funding was provided by the American Association of Colleges of Pharmacy New Investigator Program, the University of Minnesota Grant-in-Aid of Research Program, the Peters Endowment for Pharmacy Practice Innovation, the Chapman University Research Program, and the University Minnesota Research Program.

Inequity in insurance coverage for prescription drugs in New Brunswick, Canada

ObjectivesTo describe the extent to which New Brunswick residents reported having drug insurance coverage supplementary to Canadian Medicare; to examine associations between socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, health status, language identity, and having reported such coverage; and to document any changes in coverage associated with the introduction of the New Brunswick Drug Plan in 2014.MethodsWe used repeated cross-sectional data for New Brunswick from eight cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey from 2007 to 2017 and undertook logistic regression analysis.ResultsWe found statistically significant, substantial and policy-relevant socioeconomic differences in the reporting of prescription drug insurance coverage among those 25–64 years and those ≥ 65 years of age, and an increasing reliance on private drug insurance over time. We found that individuals in the second decile of household income were particularly vulnerable to reporting neither public nor private drug coverage. The introduction of the New Brunswick Drug Plan in 2014 does not appear to have led to increased public drug coverage; however, from 2014, the decreasing trend in public drug coverage appears to have ceased. Those who reported lower health status usually had lower odds of reporting private drug coverage but higher odds of reporting public drug coverage. Driven by differences in private coverage, we found that relative to anglophones, francophones were less likely to report any drug coverage.ConclusionOur findings emphasize the shortcomings of drug insurance systems such as that introduced in New Brunswick and substantiate calls for a universal drug program. New Brunswick’s increasing reliance on private drug insurance is of concern and warrants additional research.

A systematic umbrella review of the association of prescription drug insurance and cost-sharing with drug use, health services use, and health

BackgroundIncreasing spending and use of prescription drugs pose an important challenge to governments that seek to expand health insurance coverage to improve population health while controlling public expenditures. Patient cost-sharing such as deductibles and coinsurance is widely used with aim to control healthcare expenditures without adversely affecting health.MethodsWe conducted a systematic umbrella review with a quality assessment of included studies to examine the association of prescription drug insurance and cost-sharing with drug use, health services use, and health. We searched five electronic bibliographic databases, hand-searched eight specialty journals and two working paper repositories, and examined references of relevant reviews. At least two reviewers independently screened the articles, extracted the characteristics, methods, and main results, and assessed the quality of each included study.ResultsWe identified 38 reviews. We found consistent evidence that having drug insurance and lower cost-sharing among the insured were associated with increased drug use while the lack or loss of drug insurance and higher drug cost-sharing were associated with decreased drug use. We also found consistent evidence that the poor, the chronically ill, seniors and children were similarly responsive to changes in insurance and cost-sharing. We found that drug insurance and lower drug cost-sharing were associated with lower healthcare services utilization including emergency room visits, hospitalizations, and outpatient visits. We did not find consistent evidence of an association between drug insurance or cost-sharing and health. Lastly, we did not find any evidence that the association between drug insurance or cost-sharing and drug use, health services use or health differed by socioeconomic status, health status, age or sex.ConclusionsGiven that the poor or near-poor often report substantially lower drug insurance coverage, universal pharmacare would likely increase drug use among lower-income populations relative to higher-income populations. On net, it is probable that health services use could decrease with universal pharmacare among those who gain drug insurance. Such cross-price effects of extending drug coverage should be included in costing simulations.

Prevalence and duration of prescribed opioid use during pregnancy: a cohort study from the Quebec Pregnancy Cohort

BackgroundRecent studies show a rapid growth among pregnant women using high potency opioids for common pain management during their pregnancy. No study has examined the duration of treatment among strong opioid users and weak opioid users during pregnancy. We aimed to investigate the prevalence of prescribed opioid use during pregnancy, in Quebec; and to compare the duration of opioid treatment between strong opioid users and weak opioid users.MethodsUsing the Quebec Pregnancy Cohort (1998–2015), we included all pregnancies covered by the Quebec Public Prescription Drug Insurance Program. Opioid exposure was defined as filled at least one prescription for any opioid during pregnancy or before pregnancy but with a duration that overlapped the beginning of pregnancy. Prevalence of opioids use was calculated for all pregnancies, according to pregnancy outcome, trimester of exposure, and individual opioids. The duration of opioid use during pregnancy was analyzed according to 8 categories based on cumulative duration (< 90 days vs. ≥90 days), duration of action (short-acting vs. long-acting) and strength of the opioid (weak vs. strong).ResultsOf 442,079 eligible pregnancies, 20,921 (4.7%) were exposed to opioids. Among pregnancies ending with deliveries (n = 249,234), 5.4% were exposed to opioids; the prevalence increased by 40.3% from 3.9% in 1998 to 5.5% in 2015, more specifically a significant increase in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy. Weak opioid, codeine was the most commonly dispensed opioid (70% of all dispensed opioids), followed by strong opioid, hydromorphone (11%), morphine (10%), and oxycodone (5%). The prevalence of codeine use decreased by 47% from 4.3% in 2005 to 2.3% in 2015, accompanied by an increased use of strong opioid, morphine (0.029 to 1.41%), hydromorphone (0.115 to 1.08%) and oxycodone (0.022 to 0.44%), from 1998 to 2015. The average durations of opioid exposure were significantly longer among pregnancies exposed to strong opioid as compared to weak opioid regardless of the cumulative duration or duration of action (P < 0.05).ConclusionsGiven the differences in the safety profile between strong opioids and the major weak opioid codeine, the increased use of strong opioids during pregnancy with longer treatment duration raises public health concerns.

Product Proliferation under Rational Inattention: Application to Health Insurance

In markets with complicated products such as insurance, why do firms offer many products even when consumers appear to receive little benefit? We show that when consumers face information acquisition costs, firms may have an incentive to introduce many undifferentiated products. This allows firms to gain market share and increase markups. We document initial evidence consistent with the model using data from Medicare prescription drug insurance. Insurers that offer more duplicate or similar plans have higher-cost plans. These results suggest a role for policymakers to restrict product proliferation in markets with complicated products.

A Quality Improvement Initiative Is Associated With Reduced Time to Administer Biologics and Small Molecules and Emergency Room Visits in Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

Delays in biologic or small molecule medication administration are associated with increased adverse events, hospitalization, and surgery in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We evaluated the impact of a quality improvement (QI) intervention on the time to administration of biologics or small molecules (TABS) in IBD. Data were retrospectively extracted for IBD patients prescribed biologics or small molecules from a convenience sample of providers participating in an accredited QI educational intervention (baseline cohort). Subsequent to the intervention, data were prospectively collected from patients prescribed these medications (postintervention cohort). Dates related to steps between a treatment decision to medication administration were collected. The primary outcome compared TABS in baseline and postintervention cohorts. Eighteen physicians provided survey and patient data for 200 patients in each cohort (n=400). The median time to medication administration (TABS) decreased from baseline to postintervention cohorts (30 vs. 26 d, P=0.04). Emergency room visits before medication administration also decreased (25.5% vs. 12.5%, P=0.001). Similar numerical TABS reductions were observed in subgroups limited to physicians providing patients to both cohorts and for individual medications prescribed. Primary contributors to delays included filling prescriptions subsequent to insurance approval and dispensation subsequent to this. A QI intervention successfully reduced medication administration times (TABS) by accelerating provider-dependent steps. This intervention was associated with reduced emergency room visits. We propose TABS as a quality metric to assess the effective delivery of therapies in IBD. Further evaluation of QI interventions, patient education on prescription drug insurance, and quality metrics are warranted.

Decline in Receipt of Vaccines by Medicare Beneficiaries During the COVID-19 Pandemic - United States, 2020.

On March 13, 2020, the United States declared a national emergency concerning the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak (1). In response, many state and local governments issued shelter-in-place or stay-at-home orders, restricting nonessential activities outside residents' homes (2). CDC initially issued guidance recommending postponing routine adult vaccinations, which was later revised to recommend continuing to administer routine adult vaccines (3). In addition, factors such as disrupted operations of health care facilities and safety concerns regarding exposure to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, resulted in delay or avoidance of routine medical care (4), likely further affecting delivery of routine adult vaccinations. Medicare enrollment and claims data of Parts A (hospital insurance), B (medical insurance), and D (prescription drug insurance) were examined to assess the change in receipt of routine adult vaccines during the pandemic. Weekly receipt of four vaccines (13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine [PCV13], 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine [PPSV23], tetanus-diphtheria or tetanus-diphtheria-acellular pertussis vaccine [Td/Tdap], and recombinant zoster vaccine [RZV]) by Medicare beneficiaries aged ≥65 years during January 5-July 18, 2020, was compared with that during January 6-July 20, 2019, for the total study sample and by race and ethnicity. Overall, weekly administration rates of the four examined vaccines declined by up to 89% after the national emergency declaration in mid-March (1) compared with those during the corresponding period in 2019. During the first week following the national emergency declaration, the weekly vaccination rates were 25%-62% lower than those during the corresponding week in 2019. After reaching their nadirs of 70%-89% below 2019 rates in the second to third week of April 2020, weekly vaccination rates gradually began to recover through mid-July, but by the last study week were still lower than were those during the corresponding period in 2019, with the exception of PPSV23. Vaccination declined sharply for all vaccines studied, overall and across all racial and ethnic groups. While the pandemic continues, vaccination providers should emphasize to patients the importance of continuing to receive routine vaccinations and provide reassurance by explaining the procedures in place to ensure patient safety (3).

Maternal ADHD medication use during pregnancy and the risk of ADHD in children: Importance of genetic predispositions and impact of using a sibling analysis

Attention deficit with hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) medications in pregnancy would be associated with ADHD in children, however, estimates can be confounded by genetic predispositions and environmental factors related to the mother-child pair. We aim to quantify the risk of ADHD in children associated with ADHD medication exposures during pregnancy. A prospective cohort study and sibling analysis conducted within The Quebec Pregnancy/Child Cohort (QPC). All full-term singleton live births covered by the provincial prescription drug insurance in Quebec from 1998 to 2015 were included. ADHD medication exposure during pregnancy was defined according to trimester of use and class-specific medication. ADHD in children was defined as having at least one diagnosis or one prescription filled for an ADHD medication. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to calculate crude and adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in the overall cohort, the sub-cohort and the sibling analysis. Of 166,047 full-term singleton live births included, 25,454 (15.3%) had ADHD. In the overall cohort, maternal exposure to ADHD medication during pregnancy was associated with ADHD in children (aHR= 1.96, 95% CI 1.22–3.15). In the ADHD pregnant women sub-cohort (aHR= 1.56; 95% CI 0.93–2.62) and the sibling control analysis (aHR= 1.14; 95% CI 0.62–1.98), ADHD medications during pregnancy was not associated with an increased risk of ADHD in children. Our findings suggest that in utero exposure to ADHD medications was not associated with an increased risk of ADHD in children. This suggests that the association is due to genetic and/or family environmental factors.

Associations between preoperative depression and opioid use after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction and concomitant procedures

ABSTRACT Objectives: To determine rates of perioperative opioid use and characterize associations between preoperative depression and chronic and cumulative opioid consumption after ACL reconstruction. Methods: Using insurance claims data, we identified 48,657 adults who underwent ACL reconstruction from 2010 to 2015, had prescription drug insurance, and had ≥1 year of continuous insurance enrollment postoperatively. Chronic opioid use was defined as filling ≥120 days’ supply from 3 to 12 months postoperatively. Logistic and linear regression, controlled for age, sex, and Charlson Comorbidity Index value, were used to determine associations of preoperative depression with binary and continuous outcomes, respectively. Results: Preoperatively, 2,237 patients (4.6%) had depression and 2,387 (4.9%) were taking opioids; patients with depression had 6.5 times the odds (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.8, 7.3) of taking opioids than patients without depression. Postoperatively, 25% of the patients filled ≥1 opioid prescription; mean duration of use was 13 ± 11 days, and 362 patients (0.7%) had chronic use. Patients with preoperative depression were less likely than patients without depression to fill an opioid prescription postoperatively (OR 0.2, 95% CI: 0.2, 0.2). Of patients who filled opioid prescriptions postoperatively, those with preoperative depression were more likely to refill that prescription at least once (OR 2.0, 95% CI: 1.9, 2.2) but did not have greater odds of chronic use (OR 0.9, 95% CI: 0.5, 1.5). Preoperative depression was not associated with greater cumulative opioid consumption from 3 to 12 months postoperatively (β = −40, 95% CI: −226, 146). Conclusion: Although patients with preoperative depression were more likely to take opioids preoperatively and to obtain ≥1 opioid refill postoperatively, they did not have greater odds of chronic postoperative opioid use or greater cumulative opioid consumption after ACL reconstruction.

Evaluating consumers’ choices of Medicare Part D plans: A study in behavioral welfare economics

We propose new methods to model behavior and conduct welfare analysis in complex environments where some choices are unlikely to reveal preferences. We develop a mixture-of-experts model that incorporates heterogeneity in consumers’ preferences and in their choice processes. We also develop a method to decompose logit errors into latent preferences versus optimization errors. Applying these methods to Medicare beneficiaries’ prescription drug insurance choices suggests that: (1) average welfare losses from suboptimal choices are small, (2) beneficiaries with dementia and depression have larger losses, and (3) policies that simplify choice sets offer small average benefits, helping some people but harming others.

Retirement Lock and Prescription Drug Insurance: Evidence from Medicare Part D

I examine whether lack of an individual market for prescription drug insurance causes individuals to delay retirement. Exploiting the 2006 introduction of Medicare Part D, which subsidized drug insurance for Americans over age 65, I use a triple-differences design that compares labor outcomes of individuals with retiree health insurance up to age 65 to those with insurance for life, before and after age 65, before and after 2006. I find that those with benefits only to age 65 decreased full-time work by 8.4 percentage points, of which 70 percent was due to transitions to part-time work. (JEL G22, H51, I13, I18, J14, J26)