Prescribed Sea Surface Temperature Research Articles

Decomposing the effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols based on CMIP6 Earth system models

Abstract. Anthropogenic aerosols play a major role in the Earth–atmosphere system by influencing the Earth's radiative budget and precipitation and consequently the climate. The perturbation induced by changes in anthropogenic aerosols on the Earth's energy balance is quantified in terms of the effective radiative forcing (ERF). In this work, the present-day shortwave (SW), longwave (LW), and total (i.e., SW plus LW) ERF of anthropogenic aerosols is quantified using two different sets of experiments with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6): (a) time-slice pre-industrial perturbation simulations with fixed SSTs (piClim) and (b) transient historical simulations with time-evolving SSTs (histSST) over the historical period (1850–2014). ERF is decomposed into three components for both piClim and histSST experiments: (a) ERFARI, representing aerosol–radiation interactions; (b) ERFACI, accounting for aerosol–cloud interactions (including the semi-direct effect); and (c) ERFALB, which is due to temperature, humidity, and surface albedo changes caused by anthropogenic aerosols. We present spatial patterns at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and global weighted field means along with inter-model variability (1 standard deviation) for all SW, LW, and total ERF components (ERFARI, ERFACI, and ERFALB) and for every experiment used in this study. Moreover, the inter-model agreement and the robustness of our results are assessed using a comprehensive method as utilized in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. Based on piClim experiments, the total present-day (2014) ERF from anthropogenic aerosol and precursor emissions is estimated to be −1.11 ± 0.26 W m−2, mostly due to the large contribution of ERFACI to the global mean and to the inter-model variability. Based on the histSST experiments for the present-day period (1995–2014), similar results are derived, with a global mean total aerosol ERF of −1.28 ± 0.37 W m−2 and dominating contributions from ERFACI. The spatial patterns for total ERF and its components are similar in both the piClim and histSST experiments. Furthermore, implementing a novel approach to determine geographically the driving factor of ERF, we show that ERFACI dominates over the largest part of the Earth and that ERFALB dominates mainly over the poles, while ERFARI dominates over certain reflective surfaces. Analysis of the inter-model variability in total aerosol ERF shows that SW ERFACI is the main source of uncertainty predominantly over land regions with significant changes in aerosol optical depth (AOD), with eastern Asia contributing mostly to the inter-model spread of both ERFARI and ERFACI. The global spatial patterns of total ERF and its components from individual aerosol species, such as sulfates, organic carbon (OC), and black carbon (BC), are also calculated based on piClim experiments. The total ERF caused by sulfates (piClim-SO2) is estimated at −1.11 ± 0.31 W m−2, and the OC ERF (piClim-OC) is −0.35 ± 0.21 W m−2, while the ERF due to BC (piClim-BC) is 0.19 ± 0.18 W m−2. For sulfates and OC perturbation experiments, ERFACI dominates over the globe, whereas for BC perturbation experiments ERFARI dominates over land in the Northern Hemisphere and especially in the Arctic. Generally, sulfates dominate ERF spatial patterns, exerting a strongly negative ERF especially over industrialized regions of the Northern Hemisphere (NH), such as North America, Europe, and eastern and southern Asia. Our analysis of the temporal evolution of ERF over the historical period (1850–2014) reveals that ERFACI clearly dominates over ERFARI and ERFALB for driving the total ERF temporal evolution. Moreover, since the mid-1980s, total ERF has become less negative over eastern North America and western and central Europe, while over eastern and southern Asia there is a steady increase in ERF magnitude towards more negative values until 2014.

Australian Summer Monsoon: Reanalyses Versus Climate Models in Moist Static Energy Budget Evolution

AbstractThe Australian summer monsoon (ASM) influences the tropical hydro‐climate of Northern Australia during the extended summer months (October–April). Despite advances in understanding the ASM, climate models vary widely in their depiction and projections of its future behavior remain uncertain. This study investigates the moist static energy (MSE) budget and examines the gross moist stability (GMS) evolution throughout the monsoon cycle using two reanalysis data sets. We then assess the ability of Atmospheric Modeling Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations of climate models to reproduce not only the monsoon seasonal cycle of rainfall but the associated mechanisms revealed by the budget analysis. The budget analysis shows a strong influence of the regions to the north and west of our study area for the import of moisture and export of energy into and away from the ASM. We find that models reproduce this influence qualitatively, but not quantitatively. As in previous studies, we identify two major regimes of the GMS associated with the absence (higher GMS) or presence (lower GMS) of convection. Whilst climate models are able to distinguish the two regimes, they significantly overestimate the GMS in convectively active periods, owing largely to profile of ascent that is too top heavy. Models with more realistic precipitation do not consistently offer more accurate representations of dynamic processes, as evaluated by the MSE budget and GMS. This highlights limitations in assessing models based solely on single variables. To enhance the generalizability of these findings, future studies should employ models without prescribed sea surface temperatures.

Extreme cold events in Europe under a reduced AMOC

There is a consensus that a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) decreases mean surface temperature in the Northern Hemisphere, both over the ocean and the continents. However, the impacts of a reduced AMOC on cold extreme events have not yet been examined. We analyse the impacts of a reduced AMOC strength on extreme cold events over Europe using targeted sensitivity experiments with the EC-Earth3 climate model. Starting from a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation in which the AMOC was artificially reduced, a set of atmosphere-only integrations with prescribed sea surface temperature and sea-ice cover was conducted to evaluate the effects of weakly and strongly reduced AMOC strength. Despite overall cooling, reduced AMOC leads to fewer winter cold spells in Europe. We find that the weakened AMOC intensifies near-surface meridional gradient temperature in the North Atlantic and Europe, thus providing the energy to boost the jet stream. A stronger jet stream leads to less atmospheric blocking, reducing the frequency of cold spells over Europe. Although limited to the output of one model, our results indicate that a reduced AMOC strength may play a role in shaping future climate change cold spells by modulating the strength of the jet stream and the frequency of atmospheric blocking.

A Refined Understanding of the Ice Cloud Longwave Scattering Effects in Climate Model

AbstractBecause longwave (LW) absorption by greenhouse gases and clouds is more significant than the LW scattering effect by clouds, most climate models neglect cloud LW scattering to save computational costs. Ignoring cloud LW scattering directly overestimates outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). This study included ice‐cloud LW scattering treatment in the Exascale Energy Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2 and ran fully‐coupled simulations, prescribed sea surface temperature simulations, and offline radiative transfer calculations to comprehensively assess the impact of ice‐cloud LW scattering on global climate simulation. The instantaneous effect due to ice‐cloud LW scattering reduces the OLR by ∼1 W/m2 on the global average and 2 W/m2 on the tropical average. Tropospheric warming and high cloud amount reduction act to partially compensate for such instantaneous OLR reduction caused by the inclusion of LW scattering. When the simulation reaches the equilibrium, the surface warms by 0.66 K on average with respect to the simulation without LW scattering, with the Arctic surface temperature differences more than twice as large as that of the global mean. The impact of including LW scattering on the simulated climate change in response to 4 × CO2 is also assessed. While including the cloud LW scattering does not significantly modify radiative forcing and total radiative feedback under such a scenario, it results in a 10% more positive cloud feedback.

Evaluating the impact of enhanced horizontal resolution over the Antarctic domain using a variable-resolution Earth system model

Abstract. Earth system models are essential tools for understanding the impacts of a warming world, particularly on the contribution of polar ice sheets to sea level change. However, current models lack full coupling of the ice sheets to the ocean and are typically run at a coarse resolution (1∘ grid spacing or coarser). Coarse spatial resolution is particularly a problem over Antarctica, where sub-grid-scale orography is well-known to influence precipitation fields, and glacier models require high-resolution atmospheric inputs. This resolution limitation has been partially addressed by regional climate models (RCMs), which must be forced at their lateral and ocean surface boundaries by (usually coarser) global atmospheric datasets, However, RCMs fail to capture the two-way coupling between the regional domain and the global climate system. Conversely, running high-spatial-resolution models globally is computationally expensive and can produce vast amounts of data. Alternatively, variable-resolution grids can retain the benefits of high resolution over a specified domain without the computational costs of running at a high resolution globally. Here we evaluate a historical simulation of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) implementing the spectral element (SE) numerical dynamical core (VR-CESM2) with an enhanced-horizontal-resolution (0.25∘) grid over the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the surrounding Southern Ocean; the rest of the global domain is on the standard 1∘ grid. We compare it to 1∘ model runs of CESM2 using both the SE dynamical core and the standard finite-volume (FV) dynamical core, both with identical physics and forcing, including prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice concentrations from observations. Our evaluation reveals both improvements and degradations in VR-CESM2 performance relative to the 1∘ CESM2. Surface mass balance estimates are slightly higher but within 1 standard deviation of the ensemble mean, except for over the Antarctic Peninsula, which is impacted by better-resolved surface topography. Temperature and wind estimates are improved over both the near surface and aloft, although the overall correction of a cold bias (within the 1∘ CESM2 runs) has resulted in temperatures which are too high over the interior of the ice sheet. The major degradations include the enhancement of surface melt as well as excessive cloud liquid water over the ocean, with resultant impacts on the surface radiation budget. Despite these changes, VR-CESM2 is a valuable tool for the analysis of precipitation and surface mass balance and thus constraining estimates of sea level rise associated with the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

ModE-Sim – a medium-sized atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) ensemble to study climate variability during the modern era (1420 to 2009)

Abstract. We introduce ModE-Sim (Modern Era SIMulations), a medium-sized ensemble of simulations with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6 in its LR (low-resolution) version (T63; approx. 1.8∘ horizontal grid width with 47 vertical levels). At the lower boundary we use prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice that reflect observed values while accounting for uncertainties in these. Furthermore we use radiative forcings that also reflect observed values while accounting for uncertainties in the timing and strength of volcanic eruptions. The simulations cover the period from 1420 to 2009. With 60 ensemble members between 1420 and 1850 and 36 ensemble members from 1850 to 2009, ModE-Sim consists of 31 620 simulated years in total. ModE-Sim is suitable for many applications as its various subsets can be used as initial-condition and boundary-condition ensembles to study climate variability. The main intention of this paper is to give a comprehensive description of the experimental setup of ModE-Sim and to provide an evaluation, mainly focusing on the two key variables, 2 m temperature and precipitation. We demonstrate ModE-Sim's ability to represent their mean state, to produce a reasonable response to external forcings, and to sample internal variability. Through the example of heat waves, we show that the ensemble is even capable of capturing certain types of extreme events.

How does tropospheric VOC chemistry affect climate? An investigation of preindustrial control simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 2

Abstract. Because of their computational expense, models with comprehensive tropospheric chemistry have typically been run with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), which greatly limits the model's ability to generate climate responses to atmospheric forcings. In the past few years, however, several fully coupled models with comprehensive tropospheric chemistry have been developed. For example, the Community Earth System Model version 2 with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 as its atmospheric component (CESM2-WACCM6) has implemented fully interactive tropospheric chemistry with 231 chemical species as well as a fully coupled ocean. Earlier versions of this model used a “SOAG scheme” that prescribes bulk emission of a single gas-phase precursor to secondary organic aerosols (SOAs). In contrast, CESM2-WACCM6 simulates the chemistry of a comprehensive range of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) responsible for tropospheric aerosol formation. Such a model offers an opportunity to examine the full climate effects of comprehensive tropospheric chemistry. To examine these effects, 211-year preindustrial control simulations were performed using the following two configurations: (1) the standard CESM2-WACCM6 configuration with interactive chemistry over the whole atmosphere (WACtl) and (2) a simplified CESM2-WACCM6 configuration using a SOAG scheme in the troposphere and interactive chemistry in the middle atmosphere (MACtl). The middle-atmospheric chemistry is the same in both configurations, and only the tropospheric chemistry differs. Differences between WACtl and MACtl were analyzed for various fields. Regional differences in annual mean surface temperature range from −4 to 4 K. In the zonal average, there is widespread tropospheric cooling in the extratropics. Longwave forcers are shown to be unlikely drivers of this cooling, and possible shortwave forcers are explored. Evidence is presented that the climate response is primarily due to increased sulfate aerosols in the extratropical stratosphere and cloud feedbacks. As found in earlier studies, enhanced internal mixing with SOAs in WACtl causes widespread reductions of black carbon (BC) and primary organic matter (POM), which are not directly influenced by VOC chemistry. These BC and POM reductions might further contribute to cooling in the Northern Hemisphere. The extratropical tropospheric cooling results in dynamical changes, such as equatorward shifts of the midlatitude jets, which in turn drive extratropical changes in clouds and precipitation. In the tropical upper troposphere, cloud-driven increases in shortwave heating appear to weaken and expand the Hadley circulation, which in turn drives changes in tropical and subtropical precipitation. Some of the climate responses are quantitatively large enough in some regions to motivate future investigations of VOC chemistry's possible influences on anthropogenic climate change.

Predictability of Coastal Boundary Layer Jets in South China Using Atmosphere–Ocean Coupling

AbstractMost standalone atmospheric models do not perform well in simulations of coastal boundary layer jets (BLJs), important weather processes that can trigger heavy rain in coastal areas by supplying both moisture and dynamic lifting. We compared 33‐year simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean model and its standalone atmospheric component, the REgional atmosphere MOdel (REMO), forced by the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST). We validated our results using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission SST and the ERA5 hourly reanalysis data set. We found that the coupled model gave a more realistic SST standard deviation than the REMO on BLJ days and corrected the overestimated air temperature over land during the day. The coupled atmosphere–ocean model showed a lower land–sea thermal contrast in the boundary layer. This increased the effects of inertial oscillation, which caused the ageostrophic flows to veer southwest, which is the direction of the maximum wind speed on BLJ days. This reproduced a more reasonable land–sea thermal contrast in the boundary layer as a result of strong air–sea mixing in coastal weather processes, which led to a more robust inertial oscillation and a larger SST standard deviation over the central South China Sea. These findings deepen our understanding of the influence of a fully mixed air–sea boundary on coastal weather processes. These results show that operational numerical weather prediction models can be improved by applying atmosphere–ocean coupling to advance their ability to forecast the weather (e.g., BLJ events) in coastal areas.

The Most Effective Remote Forcing in Causing U.S.‐Wide Heat Extremes as Revealed by CESM Green's Function Experiments

AbstractWe make use of the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 Green's function q‐flux perturbation experiments to explore the most effective remote forcing in driving U.S.‐wide summer heat extremes. We find that positive q‐flux forcing over the western North Pacific Ocean is the most effective in causing an increased heat extreme frequency. This works by driving increased sea surface temperature and precipitation over western North Pacific and an eastward propagating Rossby wave train with an anomalous ridge over the contiguous U.S. In comparison, negative q‐flux forcing over the eastern tropical Pacific and its resulting surface cooling also leads to an increased heat extreme frequency but is less effective. Furthermore, guided by the Green's function results, we separate the role of western North Pacific warming and eastern tropical Pacific cooling in U.S. heat extremes in prescribed sea surface temperature experiments and ERA5 reanalysis data and find overall consistent conclusions.

Forcing and impact of the Northern Hemisphere continental snow cover in 1979–2014

Abstract. The main drivers of the continental Northern Hemisphere snow cover are investigated in the 1979–2014 period. Four observational datasets are used as are two large multi-model ensembles of atmosphere-only simulations with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SIC). A first ensemble uses observed interannually varying SST and SIC conditions for 1979–2014, while a second ensemble is identical except for SIC with a repeated climatological cycle used. SST and external forcing typically explain 10 % to 25 % of the snow cover variance in model simulations, with a dominant forcing from the tropical and North Pacific SST during this period. In terms of the climate influence of the snow cover anomalies, both observations and models show no robust links between the November and April snow cover variability and the atmospheric circulation 1 month later. On the other hand, the first mode of Eurasian snow cover variability in January, with more extended snow over western Eurasia, is found to precede an atmospheric circulation pattern by 1 month, similar to a negative Arctic oscillation (AO). A decomposition of the variability in the model simulations shows that this relationship is mainly due to internal climate variability. Detailed outputs from one of the models indicate that the western Eurasia snow cover anomalies are preceded by a negative AO phase accompanied by a Ural blocking pattern and a stratospheric polar vortex weakening. The link between the AO and the snow cover variability is strongly related to the concomitant role of the stratospheric polar vortex, with the Eurasian snow cover acting as a positive feedback for the AO variability in winter. No robust influence of the SIC variability is found, as the sea ice loss in these simulations only drives an insignificant fraction of the snow cover anomalies, with few agreements among models.

Vapor buoyancy increases clear-sky thermal emission

The molar mass of H2O (18 g mol−1) is smaller than that of dry air (29 g mol−1), which makes humid air lighter than dry air with the same temperature and pressure. This vapor buoyancy (VB) effect has been traditionally considered small in large-scale climate dynamics and even neglected in some leading climate models. Here, using theory and aquaplanet simulations with prescribed surface temperatures, we show that VB increases tropospheric air temperature, and that the warmer atmosphere emits more clear-sky thermal radiation by about 2–4 W m−2 in the dry subtropical areas, a significant radiative effect. We then analyze Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures and realistic topography. The results show that VB can increase clear-sky thermal radiation by up to 5 W m−2 over the ocean and about 15 W m−2 over the subtropical arid land regions. The radiative effect over arid land is amplified by a substantial increase of surface temperature due to VB. Our results highlight the role of VB in regulating Earth’s energy balance both at the top of the atmosphere and at the land surface. This study points to new ways to improve climate models and their simulated energy balance.

On the use of Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) spectrally resolved radiances to test the EC-Earth climate model (v3.3.3) in clear-sky conditions

Abstract. The long-term comparison between simulated and observed spectrally resolved outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) can represent a stringent test for the direct verification and improvement of general circulation models (GCMs), which are regularly tuned by adjusting parameters related to subgrid processes not explicitly represented in the model to constrain the integrated OLR energy fluxes to observed values. However, a good agreement between simulated and observed integrated OLR fluxes may be obtained from the cancellation of opposite-in-sign systematic errors localized in specific spectral ranges. Since the mid-2000s, stable hyperspectral observations of the mid-infrared region (667 to 2750 cm−1) of the Earth emission spectrum have been provided by different sensors (e.g. AIRS, IASI and CrIS). Furthermore, the FORUM (Far-infrared Outgoing Radiation Understanding and Monitoring) mission, selected to be the ninth ESA Earth Explorer, will measure, starting from 2027, the terrestrial radiation emitted to space at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) from 100 to 1600 cm−1, filling the observational gap in the far-infrared (FIR) region, from 100 to 667 cm−1. In this work, in anticipation of FORUM measurements, we compare Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) Metop-A observations to radiances simulated on the basis of the atmospheric fields predicted by the EC-Earth Global Climate Model (version 3.3.3) in clear-sky conditions. To simulate spectra based on the atmospheric and surface state provided by the climate model, the radiative transfer model σ-IASI has been integrated in the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (COSP) package. Therefore, online simulations, provided by the EC-Earth model equipped with the new COSP–σ-IASI module, have been performed in clear-sky conditions with prescribed sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration, every 6 h, over a time frame consistent with the availability of IASI data. Systematic comparisons between observed and simulated brightness temperature (BT) have been performed in 10 cm−1 spectral intervals, on a global scale over the ocean, with a specific focus on the latitudinal belt between 30∘ S and 30∘ N. The analysis has shown a warm BT bias of about 3.5 K in the core of the CO2 absorption band and a cold BT bias of approximately 1 K in the wing of the CO2 band, due to a positive temperature bias in the stratosphere and a negative temperature bias in the middle troposphere of the climate model, respectively. Finally, considering a warm BT bias in the rotational–vibrational water vapour band, we have highlighted a dry bias of the water vapour concentration in the upper troposphere of the model.

Sensitivity of Typhoon Forecast to Prescribed Sea Surface Temperature Data

This study investigates the impact of the sea surface temperature (SST) on the forecast of two typhoons, which consecutively hit South Korea in 2020. SST data were obtained from the Daily Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) version 2 and HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model/Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (HYCOM/NCODA; GLBy0.08/expt_93.0). When verified using in situ observational data, the OISST data did not accurately estimate the changes in SST during each typhoon’s landfall period compared to the HYCOM data since it has a relatively low temporal resolution. To investigate the impact of these two SST data on typhoon forecasts, we conducted sensitivity experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results showed that simulated typhoon intensities were significantly improved in the simulations with HYCOM data (HY runs), while typhoon track forecast performances were similar in both runs. In addition, the forecast performances of the maximum wind speed at 10 m during the typhoon landfall period were improved in the HY runs. Therefore, this study showed that the overall typhoon intensity and forecast performances during the landfall period could be improved when the higher temporal-resolution SST data were prescribed in the model boundary conditions for a better representation of typhoon-induced SST changes.

Evaluating Twenty‐Year Trends in Earth's Energy Flows From Observations and Reanalyses

AbstractSatellite, reanalysis, and ocean in situ data are analyzed to evaluate regional, hemispheric and global mean trends in Earth's energy fluxes during the first 20 years of the twenty‐first century. Regional trends in net top‐of‐atmosphere (TOA) radiation from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES), ECMWF Reanalysis 5 (ERA5), and a model similar to ERA5 with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice differ markedly, particularly over the Eastern Pacific Ocean, where CERES observes large positive trends. Hemispheric and global mean net TOA flux trends for the two reanalyses are smaller than CERES, and their climatological means are half those of CERES in the southern hemisphere (SH) and more than nine times larger in the northern hemisphere (NH). The regional trend pattern of the divergence of total atmospheric energy transport (TEDIV) over ocean determined using ERA5 analyzed fields is similar to that inferred from the difference between TOA and surface fluxes from ERA5 short‐term forecasts. There is also agreement in the trend pattern over ocean for surface fluxes inferred as a residual between CERES net TOA flux and ERA5 analysis TEDIV and surface fluxes obtained directly from ERA5 forecasts. Robust trends are observed over the Gulf Stream associated with enhanced surface‐to‐atmosphere transfer of heat. Within the ocean, larger trends in ocean heating rate are found in the NH than the SH after 2005, but the magnitude of the trend varies greatly among datasets.

Importance of ocean prediction for heavy rainfall prediction over Japan in July 2020

AbstractHindcast experiments were performed for heavy rainfall events over Japan in July 2020 using a regional atmospheric model and a regional coupled model to examine the importance of ocean prediction for predicting heavy rainfall events. Both models were able to predict the first peak of accumulated rainfall over western Japan occurring in the first half of July. However, only the coupled model predicted the second peak that occurred in the second half of July. Sea level pressure (SLP) and low‐level moisture inflow originating from an existing atmospheric river (AR) were found to differ in each model. In the regional atmospheric model, the error associated with the inaccurate low‐level moisture inflow grew with rising excessive latent heat flux, which enhanced convection and resulted in incorrect SLP patterns. This trend seems to be enhanced by having a prescribed sea surface temperature (SST), which affects the surface heat flux. When ocean conditions are predicted as in the coupled model, such error growth is suppressed by changes in SST that adjust surface heat flux, and it leads to generation of the correct SLP patterns. With correct SLP especially for Pacific high in this case, favorable conditions for inflow from the AR can also be predicted, thus making it possible to predict the heavy rainfall. In conclusion, considering the atmospheric feedback on SST, ocean prediction can improve the predictability of heavy rainfall over Japan, the conditions for which are influenced by the nearby AR. Ocean prediction may therefore extend the range of weather forecasting.

Investigating Tropical Versus Extratropical Influences on the Southern Hemisphere Tropical Edge in the Unified Model

AbstractSince the late 1970s, observations have shown a widening of the tropical Hadley cell (HC) circulation. State‐of‐the‐art climate models reproduce the general trend along with a projected continuous expansion. Discrepancies in expansion rates of observation‐ and model‐based studies have been attributed to differences in applied methods, natural variability and model shortcomings. Furthermore, the driving influence of tropical or extratropical processes on these changes is not well understood. All of this highlights the dynamical mechanisms and the region of origin controlling the tropical width are still insufficiently understood. Here we examine the influence of systematic model biases of the atmosphere‐only Unified Model (UM) onto the simulation of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropical edge. We utilize nudged experiments with prescribed sea surface temperatures, where potential temperature and horizontal winds are relaxed back to ERA‐Interim reanalysis for a 20‐year period in selected regions. Correcting model biases in the tropics and extratropics separately allows us to dissect the dominant remote impacts of present model errors onto the SH tropical edge simulation. The experiments are applied to established tropical width metrics ranging from near‐surface to upper‐level metrics capturing the poleward flank of the HC. We find both regions work remotely to reduce errors in the UM fields and location of the tropical edge. Surprisingly, correcting the extratropical biases, south of 45°S, more consistently improves the tropical width across the metrics and seasons than nudging the tropics (10°N–10°S). These findings demonstrate the substantial role of extratropical influences in locating the SH tropical edge.

The role of local topography and sea surface temperature on summer monsoon precipitation over Bangladesh and northeast India

AbstractBangladesh receives most of its precipitation from June to September in the form of rainfall as a part of the Asian summer monsoon system. Bangladesh is a relatively flat region, surrounded by the southern Himalayas and Meghalaya Plateau in the north, Arakan Mountains in the east, and the Bay of Bengal (BOB) in the south. Although several studies have investigated the mechanisms that drive the Asian monsoon precipitation, very few studies have focused on the monsoon precipitation in Bangladesh. This study investigated the influence of the topography of the surrounding regions and sea surface temperature on the summer monsoon precipitation of Bangladesh and the surrounding regions. Using observed data, we showed that moisture convergence near the mountains contributes to the precipitation of Bangladesh, whereas the BOB acts as a source of moisture. A strong low‐level jet carries the moisture inland as the land–sea thermal contrast intensifies the wind circulation during the summer. Three differently forced simulations of the Euro‐Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change coupled climate model (CMCC CM2) were analysed to investigate the influence of the surrounding region's topography and sea surface temperature on the summer monsoon precipitation. The low‐resolution simulation showed no spatial variability of precipitation and dry bias due to the overly smooth topographical representation of mountains. The high‐resolution coupled simulation, with a better representation of topography, improved the moisture convergence at the foothills and precipitation bias. The high‐resolution prescribed sea surface temperature further improved the precipitation bias by intensifying the low‐level jet that transports moisture over Bangladesh.

The Role of Atmospheric Drivers in a Sudden Transition of California Precipitation in the 2012/13 Winter

AbstractCalifornia experienced a sharp transition from wet to historically dry conditions during the 2012/13 winter. Such transitions in the precipitation regime have strong consequences for water management, but predicting them at the seasonal time scale remains very challenging as little is known about what drives them. The 2012/13 winter was characterized by a neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation, strong Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity, and sudden stratospheric warming. This study examines the potential influence of these different drivers in atmospheric global climate model experiments with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration and constrained tropical and/or Arctic variability. Our model results are compared to reforecasts from the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble (NMME) and Subseasonal Experiment (SubX)/Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) projects to determine which important processes may have been missed by the seasonal prediction systems. Our simulations suggest that the tropical warm‐west, cool‐east SST anomaly played an active role in the wet conditions of November–December 2012 through a typical tropical‐extratropical teleconnection. The tropical SST anomalies were not accurately predicted by the NMME models, and none of them predicted the wet anomalies in November–December. In contrast, the sudden transition toward dry conditions in January is found to be independent of tropical SST variability, and rather influenced by strong MJO activity over the western Pacific. The SubX/S2S models with a better MJO prediction tend to predict the dry conditions in January better. Our study highlights how intraseasonal processes superimpose on more persistent seasonal anomalies and induce regime shifts such as the wet‐to‐dry transition of the 2012/13 winter.

Revisiting the Tropical Atlantic Influence on El Niño–Southern Oscillation

AbstractThe influence of the tropical Atlantic on El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is examined using sensitivity experiments with the SINTEX-F general circulation model with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) distributions based on observations for the period 1982–2018. In the control experiment (CTRL) observed SSTs are prescribed over the global oceans; in the sensitivity experiment observed SSTs are prescribed in the tropical Atlantic only, while in other regions the climatological annual cycle is prescribed. A composite analysis of the model output suggests that cold SST events in the northern tropical Atlantic during boreal spring are associated with near-surface wind changes over the equatorial and subtropical Pacific that are conducive to the development of El Niño, consistent with previous studies. The amplitude of these changes, however, is at most 20% of those observed during typical El Niño events. Likewise, warm events in the equatorial Atlantic produce only about 10% of the wind changes seen in the western equatorial Pacific during the developing phase of typical La Niña events. Similar results are obtained from a partial regression analysis performed on an ensemble of atmosphere-only simulations from phase 6 of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) although the equatorial Atlantic influence is stronger in AMIP. Further analysis of the AMIP models indicates that model biases do not have a major impact on the Atlantic-to-Pacific influence. Overall, the results suggest that the tropical Atlantic has a rather weak influence on ENSO development and mostly acts to modulate ongoing events rather than initiate them.

Cloud Feedbacks from CanESM2 to CanESM5.0 and their influence on climate sensitivity

Abstract. The newest iteration of the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM5.0.3) has an effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) of 5.65 K, which is a 54 % increase relative to the model's previous version (CanESM2 – 3.67 K), and the highest sensitivity of all current models participating in the sixth phase of the coupled model inter-comparison project (CMIP6). Here, we explore the underlying causes behind CanESM5's increased EffCS via comparison of forcing and feedbacks between CanESM2 and CanESM5. We find only modest differences in radiative forcing as a response to CO2 between model versions. We find small increases in the surface albedo and longwave cloud feedback, as well as a substantial increase in the SW cloud feedback in CanESM5. Through the use of cloud area fraction output and cloud radiative kernels, we find that more positive low and non-low shortwave cloud feedbacks – particularly with regards to low clouds across the equatorial Pacific, as well as subtropical and extratropical free troposphere cloud optical depth – are the dominant contributors to CanESM5's increased climate sensitivity. Additional simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures reveal that the spatial pattern of surface temperature change exerts controls on the magnitude and spatial distribution of low-cloud fraction response but does not fully explain the increased EffCS in CanESM5. The results from CanESM5 are consistent with increased EffCS in several other CMIP6 models, which has been primarily attributed to changes in shortwave cloud feedbacks.