Preoperative Prognostic Index Research Articles

Preoperative Prognostic Index for Patients with Brain Metastases-A Population-Based Multi-Centre Study.

Brain metastases (BM) are common in cancer patients and are associated with high morbidity and mortality. Surgery is an option, but the optimal selection of patients for surgery is challenging and controversial. Current prognostication tools are not ideal for preoperative prognostication. By using a reference population (derivation data set) and two external populations (validation data set) of patients who underwent surgery for BM, we aimed to create and validate a preoperative prognostic index. The derivation data set consists of 590 patients who underwent surgery for BM (2011-2018) at Oslo University Hospital. We identified variables associated with survival and created a preoperative prognostic index with four prognostic groups, which was validated on patients who underwent surgery for BM at Karolinska University Hospital and St. Olavs University Hospital during the same time period. To reduce over-fitting, we adjusted the index in accordance with our findings. 438 patients were included in the validation data set. The preoperative prognostic index correctly divided patients into four true prognostic groups. The two prognostic groups with the poorest survival outcomes overlapped, and these were merged to create the adjusted preoperative prognostic index. We created a prognostic index for patients with BM that predicts overall survival preoperatively. This index might be valuable in supporting informed choice when considering surgery for BM.

Abstract P2-15-01: Conversion from luminal to normal intrinsic subtype by PAM50 after neoadjuvant endocrine therapy is associate with biomarkers of good prognosis in luminal breast cancer

Abstract Background. Neoadjuvant endocrine therapy (NET) in luminal breast cancer (LBC) is the perfect scenario for real-time evaluation of the biological and molecular changes that occur after estrogenic deprivation. This evaluation is mainly performed in surgical specimens after NET and has been used as a research tool to obtain prognostic and predictive information using tumor response to decide adjuvant treatment. Nevertheless, there are not many validated biomarkers in this setting to predict response beyond Ki67 levels and modified Preoperative Prognostic Index (mPEPI score) after treatment. Hence, the aim of this study is to determine if changes in mRNA-based PAM50 analysis (intrinsic subtype) after NET in LBC correlate with such biomarkers. Methods. We collected a series of postmenopausal ER+/HER2- breast cancer patients (n=58) treated for at least 4 months with NET before surgery. Next, we performed gene expression analysis by PAM50 accompanied by pathological characterization of surgical tumor specimens and immunohistochemistry characterization of ER and Ki67 levels, both at diagnosis and in surgery specimen. Finally, we studied the association of our results with clinical and histopathological features and with validated biomarkers for endocrine response, such as mPEPI score and changes in Ki67 levels. Results. The distribution of changes in intrinsic subtype determined by PAM50 after NET is presented in Table 1. We observed that tumors that changed from luminal to a normal intrinsic subtype showed larger changes in Ki67 levels after NET and reduced percentage of Ki67 positive cells at surgery, compared to those that presented a luminal persistent status: both analysis P<0.0001 (Mann-Whitney test). Similarly, we found a statistical association between lower mPEPI score in those tumors that change from luminal to a normal intrinsic subtype compared to those that presented a luminal persistent status: P=0.0034 (Mann-Whitney test). Moreover, in agreement with these results, we also studied ROR-P (PAM50 risk of recurrence (ROR) of subtype plus proliferation) in tumors that change from luminal to a normal intrinsic subtype and in those that presented a luminal persistent status. Results showed the same trends as the ones observed for Ki67-related parameters and mPEPI. Conclusions. PAM50 analysis revealed that changes from luminal A and luminal B to normal intrinsic subtype are associated with response to NET, measured by different well-established parameters. This result gives us clues to further explore which genes are orchestrating these changes and their impact on clinical outcomes. However, more analyses should be performed to determine the relationship between ROR and parameters used to measure response in NET in order to validate the results presented. In conclusion, our data support that the determination of the changes in gene expression profile using PAM50, before and after NET, can be used as a tool to predict response, conjointly with other clinical parameters. Table 1.- Intrinsic subtypes determined by PAM50 in samples pre and post NETPAM50 PREPAM50 POSTNO.%PERSISTANT LUMINAL STATUSCHANGE FROM LUMINAL TO A NOLMAL INTRINSIC SUBTYPELumALumA2136YESLumANormal1526YESLumALumB35YESLumBLumA610YESLumBNormal35YESLumBLumB59YESHER2HER223NANAHER2LumA12NANALumAHER212NANANormalNormal12NANATOTAL58100Lum=LuminalNA= Not applicable Citation Format: Joanna Ines Lopez Velazco, María Otaño, Inazio Lacambra, Kepa Elorriaga, Ainhara Lahuerta, Ana Martínez, Virginia Segur, Sara Manzano, Aleix Prat, María Caffarel, Ander Urruticoechea. Conversion from luminal to normal intrinsic subtype by PAM50 after neoadjuvant endocrine therapy is associate with biomarkers of good prognosis in luminal breast cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2021 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2021 Dec 7-10; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2022;82(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P2-15-01.

Preoperative Prognostic Nutritional Index and Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Predict Survival Outcomes of Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Curative Resection.

Increasing evidence indicates that preoperative prognostic indices can serve as independent predictors of survival in patients with cancer. However, the applicability of these indices in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is controversial. This study aims to investigate the prognostic value of these indices in patients with HCC after curative hepatectomy. We retrospectively analyzed the data of 215 patients who underwent curative resection for HCC. Prognostic indices including prognostic nutritional index (PNI) and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were evaluated by comparing by the area under the curve (AUC). Univariate analysis and multivariate analysis were performed to identify independent prognostic factors. Additionally, risk factors were combined to predict the survival of patients. We found that serum albumin concentration, tumor diameter, tumor stage, degree of differentiation, PNI, and NLR were independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS). Vascular invasion, tumor stage, degree of differentiation, and PNI were independent prognostic factors for recurrence-free survival (RFS). The cutoff value of the PNI and NLR was 43.75 and 3.29, respectively. Patients with low NLR and high PNI had the best outcomes, potentially indicative of the intensive antitumor effects of the immune system. Moreover, patients with at least three risk factors had a significantly lower OS and RFS compared with those with two or fewer risk factors. This new nomogram based on PNI and NLR may provide an accessible and individualized prediction of survival and recurrence for HCC patients.

Abstract PS5-39: Tumour cellularity size as a biomarker to predict response after neoadjuvant endocrine therapy: Correlation analysis between Ki67 expression and PEPI score

Abstract Background: Neoadjuvant endocrine therapy (NET) is an approach that allows real-time evaluation of drug efficacy as well as investigation of the biological and molecular changes that occur after estrogenic deprivation. This evaluation is mainly performed in surgical specimens after NET and it has been used as a research tool to obtain prognostic and predictive information using tumour response to decide adjuvant treatment. In this setting, there are not many validated biomarkers to predict response beyond Ki67 expression and Preoperative Prognostic Index (PEPI score) in NET. The aim of this study is to determine if the tumour cellularity size (TCS) in surgical specimen after NET correlates with PEPI score and Ki67 expression. Methods: Retrospective study of postmenopausal patients with estrogen receptor (ER) positive/HER2 negative resectable breast cancer, treated with an aromatase inhibitor for at least 4 months prior to surgery. Pathological characterization of tumour specimens: Evaluation of the percentage of residual tumour cellularity of formalin fixed paraffin embedded surgical specimens and immunohistochemistry characterization of ER and Ki67. Tumour cellularity size: calculated by combining the percentage of residual tumour cellularity and tumour pathological size. Results: N=104. Tumour characteristics at surgery and breakdown for the calculated PEPI score: table 1. Correlation between the percentage of Ki67 positive cells at surgery and TCS: (r=0.2503) p=0.04 (95% CI, 0.0014 to 0.4700). Correlation between TCS and PEPI score: (r=0.2582) p=0.05 (95% CI, -0.0131 to 0.4940). Conclusions: Tumour cellularity size is a promising biomarker to determine response and prognosis after NET. There is a need to find other biomarkers to predict response after NET. Table 1Pathology/Biomarker statusPEPI score RFS pointsNo. of patientspTNot available (NA)1pT1/T20102pT3/T431pNNA7Negative075Positive322KI67 levelNA10%-2.7%039>2.7%-7.3%131>7.3%-19.7%119>19.7%-53.1%213>53.1%31ER-status Allred scoreNA120-2303-8092PEPI scoreNA190281342533495561PEPI groupNot calculated19I (0 score)28II (1-3 score)42III (≥4 score)15 Citation Format: Joanna Ines Lopez Velazco, María Otaño, Lide Larburu, Ainhara Lahuerta, Kepa Elorriaga, Virginia Segur, Juan Carlos Irizabal, Ana Martínez, Lourdes Jáuregui, Maria M. Caffarel, Ander Urruticoechea. Tumour cellularity size as a biomarker to predict response after neoadjuvant endocrine therapy: Correlation analysis between Ki67 expression and PEPI score [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2020 San Antonio Breast Cancer Virtual Symposium; 2020 Dec 8-11; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2021;81(4 Suppl):Abstract nr PS5-39.

Development and validation of a preoperative prognostic index independent of TNM stage in resected non-small cell lung cancer

BackgroundPreviously reported prognostic tools for patients with resected non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) include factors found postoperatively, but not preoperatively. However, it would be important to predict patient prognosis before NSCLC resection. To suggest a novel preoperative prognostic tool, we evaluated the relationship of preoperative prognostic factors with the survival of patients with resected NSCLC.MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed the data of two independent cohorts of patients with completely resected NSCLC. To develop the prognostic index in one cohort, the overall survival (OS) was evaluated using the Cox proportional hazards model. We assessed the disease-free survival (DFS) and OS of three risk groups defined according to the prognostic index. Then, the prognostic index was validated in the other cohort.ResultsSeven independent risk factors for OS were selected: age ≥ 70 years, ever-smokers, vital capacity <80%, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥ 2.1, cytokeratin 19 fragment >normal limit, non-usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) pattern, and UIP pattern. Three risk groups were defined: low-risk (36.9%), intermediate-risk (54.0%), and high-risk (9.1%). In the derivation cohort, the 5-year DFS rate was 77.8%, 58.8%, and 22.6% (P < 0.001), and the 5-year OS rate was 95.2%, 70.4%, and 28.9% (P < 0.001), respectively. Multivariate analyses showed that the prognostic index predicted DFS and OS, independent of pathological stage and tumor histology, in both derivation and validation cohorts.ConclusionsWe developed and validated a simple preoperative prognostic index composed of seven variables, which may help clinicians predict prognosis before surgery in patients with NSCLC.

A Novel Predictor of Survival with Renal Cell Carcinoma After Nephrectomy.

To validate plasma fibrinogen and serum cholesterol levels as prognostic factors for patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and to explore the prognostic value of their combination. Medical data for 1360 RCC patients after nephrectomy were collected. X-tile software was used to determine the cutoff values. The association between clinicopathological factors and fibrinogen and cholesterol levels was determined, and factors predicting survival were examined by multivariate analysis. The median follow-up was 67 months (interquartile range 36-74 months). On univariate and multivariate analysis, both preoperative plasma fibrinogen and serum cholesterol were independent prognostic factors of cancer-specific survival (CSS) and progression-free survival (PFS). By combining the two factors, we developed a novel index, fibrinogen-cholesterol (FC) score and found it to have better prognostic accuracy than the two factors alone. FC was an independent prognostic factor for both CSS (FC score = 1: hazard ratio [HR] = 3.207, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.775-5.793; FC score = 2: HR = 5.516, 95% CI = 2.891-10.527) and PFS (FC score = 1: HR = 2.178, 95% CI = 1.545-3.071; FC score = 2: HR = 3.709, 95% CI = 2.355-5.840). Both preoperative plasma fibrinogen and serum cholesterol levels are independent prognostic factors for CSS and PFS in RCC patients after nephrectomy. A novel indicator, FC score, could be considered a novel preoperative prognostic index in RCC.

Favorable prognostic factors of surgical outcomes in hepatocellular carcinoma patients with portal vein tumor thrombosis

Background: Some HCC patients with portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT) experience long-term survival after hepatectomy. This study sought to find favorable prognostic factors in patients with HCC PVTT, and additionally to provide a prognostic index from preoperative prognostic factors. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 225 consecutive patients with HCC and PVTT who underwent hepatectomy. Survival rates of the patients were calculated with regard to clinicopathologic variables. Results: Median survival time and 5-year survival rate were 19.8 months and 31.2%, respectively. In regard to recurrence free survival time, 3 factors, ie, tumor size, number, resection margin were independent significant prognostic factors by multivariate analysis. In regard to overall survival time, 6 factors, ie, total bilirubin, albumin, PIVKA-II, type of hepatectomy, satellite nodules, bile duct invasion, extrahepatic recurrence were independent significant prognostic factors by multivariate analysis. We calculated a prognostic index from significant preoperative prognostic variables as follows: (PIVKA-II: ≤ 400 mAU/mL = 0, > 400 mAU/mL = 1) + (tumor size: ≤ 7.5 cm = 0, > 7.5 cm = 1) + (tumor number: single = 0, multiple = 1). Median survival times for patients with prognostic index, 0 1, 2, and 3 were 54, 21, 20, and 11 months, respectively. Conclusion: Preoperative prognostic index is a useful for making appropriate treatment strategy decision for patients with HCC PVTT. Anatomical hepatectomy has a significant role to prolong overall survival time. At the time of recurrence, logoregional treatment is effective tool to prolong survival time of patients with intrahepatic recurrence.

Abstract P5-13-06: Concurrent gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonist administration with chemotherapy improves neoadjuvant chemotherapy responses in young premenopausal breast cancer patients

Abstract Background Gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonist therapy for ovarian function preservation shows promising results. This study aimed to determine the oncologic efficacy of GnRH agonist treatment concurrent with chemotherapy in a neoadjuvant setting. Patients and Methods A retrospective analysis was performed on 332 cases of invasive breast cancer in patients who were &amp;lt;40 years old at diagnosis and received GnRH agonists concurrent with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (GnRH agonist group) or neoadjuvant chemotherapy alone (neochemotherapy-alone group) at Asan Medical Center from December 2010 to September 2014. Pathologic complete response rates (pCR) and Ki-67 changes were evaluated between the two groups. For hormone receptor (HR)-positive tumors, the clinical response and preoperative endocrine prognostic index (PEPI) score also were evaluated. Results The median age was 32 ± 3.9 and 36 ± 3.0 years old in the GnRH agonist group and neochemotherapy-alone group, respectively (P &amp;lt; .001). Adjusted for tumor size, grade, lymph node metastasis, HR status, and chemotherapy regimen, the GnRH agonist group exhibited a higher pCR rate with an odds ratio (OR) of 2.98 (95% CI, 1.37–6.34) and more decreased Ki-67 expression during treatment (P = 0.05) than the neochemotherapy-alone group. In HR-negative tumors, the GnRH agonist group showed a higher pCR rate (multivariate OR = 3.50; 95% CI, 1.37–8.95) and more decreased Ki-67 expression (P = 0.047). In HR-positive breast cancer, the pCR rate, change in Ki-67 index, and clinical response were higher and preoperative prognostic index (PEPI) scores were lower in the GnRH agonist group, but not significant between the two treatment groups. Conclusion Concurrent administration of GnRH agonists during neoadjuvant chemotherapy improved pCR rates and suppressed Ki-67 expression especially in HR-negative tumors. Citation Format: Yoon TI, Kim HJ, Yu JH, Sohn G, Ko BS, Lee JW, Son BH, Ahn SH. Concurrent gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonist administration with chemotherapy improves neoadjuvant chemotherapy responses in young premenopausal breast cancer patients. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Thirty-Eighth Annual CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2015 Dec 8-12; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2016;76(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P5-13-06.

A comparison of the prognostic value of preoperative inflammation-based scores and TNM stage in patients with gastric cancer.

BackgroundPeople’s Republic of China is one of the countries with the highest incidence of gastric cancer, accounting for 45% of all new gastric cancer cases in the world. Therefore, strong prognostic markers are critical for the diagnosis and survival of Chinese patients suffering from gastric cancer. Recent studies have begun to unravel the mechanisms linking the host inflammatory response to tumor growth, invasion and metastasis in gastric cancers. Based on this relationship between inflammation and cancer progression, several inflammation-based scores have been demonstrated to have prognostic value in many types of malignant solid tumors.ObjectiveTo compare the prognostic value of inflammation-based prognostic scores and tumor node metastasis (TNM) stage in patients undergoing gastric cancer resection.MethodsThe inflammation-based prognostic scores were calculated for 207 patients with gastric cancer who underwent surgery. Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), and prognostic index (PI) were analyzed. Linear trend chi-square test, likelihood ratio chi-square test, and receiver operating characteristic were performed to compare the prognostic value of the selected scores and TNM stage.ResultsIn univariate analysis, preoperative serum C-reactive protein (P<0.001), serum albumin (P<0.001), GPS (P<0.001), PLR (P=0.002), NLR (P<0.001), PI (P<0.001), PNI (P<0.001), and TNM stage (P<0.001) were significantly associated with both overall survival and disease-free survival of patients with gastric cancer. In multivariate analysis, GPS (P=0.024), NLR (P=0.012), PI (P=0.001), TNM stage (P<0.001), and degree of differentiation (P=0.002) were independent predictors of gastric cancer survival. GPS and TNM stage had a comparable prognostic value and higher linear trend chi-square value, likelihood ratio chi-square value, and larger area under the receiver operating characteristic curve as compared to other inflammation-based prognostic scores.ConclusionThe present study indicates that preoperative GPS and TNM stage are robust predictors of gastric cancer survival as compared to NLR, PLR, PI, and PNI in patients undergoing tumor resection.

Novel immunological and nutritional-based prognostic index for gastric cancer.

To assess the prognostic significance of immunological and nutritional-based indices, including the prognostic nutritional index (PNI), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and platelet-lymphocyte ratio in gastric cancer. We retrospectively reviewed 632 gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy between 1998 and 2008. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were calculated to compare the predictive ability of the indices, together with estimating the sensitivity, specificity and agreement rate. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify risk factors for overall survival (OS). Propensity score analysis was performed to adjust variables to control for selection bias. Each index could predict OS in gastric cancer patients in univariate analysis, but only PNI had independent prognostic significance in multivariate analysis before and after adjustment with propensity scoring (hazard ratio, 1.668; 95% confidence interval: 1.368-2.035). In subgroup analysis, a low PNI predicted a significantly shorter OS in patients with stage II-III disease (P = 0.019, P < 0.001), T3-T4 tumors (P < 0.001), or lymph node metastasis (P < 0.001). Canton score, a combination of PNI, NLR, and platelet, was a better indicator for OS than PNI, with the largest area under the curve for 12-, 36-, 60-mo OS and overall OS (P = 0.022, P = 0.030, P < 0.001, and P = 0.024, respectively). The maximum sensitivity, specificity, and agreement rate of Canton score for predicting prognosis were 84.6%, 34.9%, and 70.1%, respectively. PNI is an independent prognostic factor for OS in gastric cancer. Canton score can be a novel preoperative prognostic index in gastric cancer.

Regression of left ventricular hypertrophy during 10 years after valve replacement for aortic stenosis is related to the preoperative risk profile.

Previous studies have suggested that regression of hypertrophy may be the underlying determinant of longevity and left ventricular function after valve replacement (AVR) for aortic stenosis (AS). The potential for hypertrophy regression could therefore be related to the preoperative risk profile. Ninety-one consecutive patients with AS had a "project" Doppler-echo and radionuclide ventriculography in addition to the standard investigation programme prior to AVR with a disc valve (19-29mm, n=82), a caged ball valve (26-29mm, n=8), or a stented porcine valve (26mm, n=1); 49 (group A) were selected for a serial follow-up study while 42 served as controls (group B). Forty-two group A patients took part in a 1.5-year examination while 47 (26 group A, 21 group B) patients were studied at 10 years. Groups A and B were comparable as regards all pre- and intra-operative data including left ventricular mass index (LVMi). A previously developed preoperative prognostic index (PI) separated the patients into groups with low (n=23), intermediary (n=19) and high risk (n=49) with 10-year survivals of 87%, 58% and 43% (P<0.01). LVMi dropped from 202+/-58g/m(2)preoperatively to 152+/-45g/m(2)(P<0.0001) at 1.5 years, and 139+/-40g/m(2)(P<0.0001) at 10 years (three and six patients, respectively, with paravalvular leak or mitral regurgitation excluded). PI correlated with preoperative (r=0.51, P<0.001), 1.5-year (r=0.46, P<0.01), and 10-year LVMi (r=0.41, P<0.01). Also preoperative left ventricular ejection fraction correlated with the three LVMi measurements. Patients with systemic hypertension had higher LVMi at 1.5 years (193+/-42, n=6 vs 144+/-42, n=33, P<0.05) and 10 years (175+/-39, n=12 vs 124+/-31g/m(2), n=29, P<0.001). Patients with low, intermediary or high PI, excluding those with hypertension, had 1.5-year LVMi of 110+/-35 (n=8), 134+/-43 (n=9) and 164+/-33g/m(2)(n=16; P<0.01), respectively, and 10-year LVMi of 116+/-25 (n=17), 126+/-27 (n=6), and 146+/-41g/m(2)(n=6; P<0.05), respectively. There was no relation between LVMi at 1.5 or 10 years and peak or mean Doppler gradient, prosthetic valve size, or valve size index. Left ventricular hypertrophy regression for patients who survived up to 10 years after AVR for AS is dependent on the preoperative risk profile indicating that irreversible myocardial disease is the underlying factor. Systemic hypertension is an important factor in its own right.