Pre-monsoon Thunderstorms Research Articles

Enhanced prediction of premonsoon thunderstorms over eastern India through assimilation of INSAT‐3D sounding data

AbstractThe present study assesses the impact of Indian National Satellite 3D (INSAT‐3D)‐derived atmospheric (temperature and relative humidity) profiles on the simulation of severe thunderstorms over eastern India during the premonsoon season. Two sets of numerical experiments, without assimilation (CNTL) and with assimilation of INSAT‐3D profiles (INSAT) have been conducted using the three‐dimensional variational data assimilation system of the Weather Research and Forecasting model for 11 thunderstorm events. Analysis increments are positive with INSAT profile assimilation in the lower to middle atmosphere in the thunderstorm region. The errors in the initial fields have been reduced by approx. 50% after the assimilation. After assimilation, the predictions of the surface fields (2‐m temperature, 2‐m relative humidity, and 10‐m wind speed) have been improved at the mature stage (by 37%, 26%, and 15%) compared to the CNTL. Similar improvements are noticed in the vertical profiles of relative humidity and wind speed in the INSAT experiment. The time and magnitude of updrafts and downdrafts improved in INSAT. After assimilation, rainfall intensity improved in nine cases, and time improved in four cases out of 11. The Critical Success Index (False Alarm Rate) of the INSAT ranges from approx. 0.6–0.15 (∼0.37–0.48) for all thresholds, and are higher (lower) than the CNTL. The rainfall area is improved by 25% for light rainfall, 11% for moderate rainfall, and 2% for heavy rainfall in the INSAT over the CNTL experiment. Overall thunderstorm prediction has been improved with the assimilation of INSAT‐3D data. Thus, the study highlights the viability of INSAT‐3D profiles in improving thunderstorm predictions over eastern India.

Spatio-temporal changes in the pre-monsoon thunderstorm activities of northeast India over the past four decades

Thunderstorms inflict significant danger to both human and environment. Here, we present a thorough examination of recent changes in thunderstorm occurrences in the northeast and eastern regions of India.

Dual-Polarimetric Radar Applications for Investigating Severe Thunderstorms in Northern Thailand during the Pre-Monsoon Season

Understanding the physical characteristics of severe pre-monsoon thunderstorms is crucial for mitigating the adverse impacts of natural disasters on people in tropical regions. On April 23, 2020, a severe storm affected the Chiang Khong District of the Chiang Rai Province in Northern Thailand, causing devastation to more than 500 houses with hail and strong winds. This study investigated the storm's physical characteristics using dual-polarimetric radar data from the Thai Meteo-rological Department (TMD). Using a combination of polarimetric radar variables, such as reflectivity (ZH), specific differential phase (KDP), differential reflectivity (ZDR), and copolar correlation coefficient (ρhv), fuzzy logic was utilized to classify the hydrometeor types. During the severe storm that affected the Chiang Khong District, hail and large raindrops were mixed in with the rain, according to the analysis. Two severe storms were observed in the unorganized mesoscale convective systems that were analyzed, with the second storm producing more intense effects due to the radar reflectivity shape of a bow echo that generated strong wind gusts. The Doppler radar data retrieved the wind field, indicating the convergence of intense local winds during the storm, which was consistent with the analysis results of synoptic-scale weather systems from ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5). In addition, a Hovmöller diagram revealed orographic enhancement of the convective cloud as the storm passed through mountainous regions prior to approaching the Chiang Khong District. The findings of this study can provide valuable information for TMD's near-real-time warning operation in order to minimize loss of life and property from future severe storms.

Thunderstorm detection from GPM IMERG rainfall: Climatology of dynamical and thermodynamical processes over India

AbstractThis study aims to (i) prepare a premonsoon thunderstorms database, (ii) understand the thunderstorm frequency, duration and intensity and (iii) composite analysis of dynamic and thermodynamic processes related to thunderstorms over India. The thunderstorm associated rainfall varies across India. Hence, a percentile‐based approach is implemented with the integrated multi‐satellite retrievals for global precipitation measurement (IMERG) dataset at 0.1° resolution to identify thunderstorms for 2001–2021. The 93rd percentile appears to be better for thunderstorm detection, with a success ratio of 82% (642 events are confirmed out of 786 detected) in eastern India. Further analysis indicated that 84% of the detected thunderstorms in eastern and northeastern India are associated with lightning activity. Based on this long‐term (2001–2021) thunderstorm data, the highest frequency of thunderstorms (40–45 events·year−1) is observed over the western foothills of the Himalayas, the northeast region, and the west coast of Kerala. The thunderstorm duration in the eastern and northeastern regions and the southwest coast of India is mostly 0.5–2.5 h, producing heavy rainfall (>7 mm·h−1) due to more moisture content and stronger updrafts. The composite structure of thermodynamic indices exhibits significant spatial variations over India and can be used to differentiate the regions of high thunderstorm activity. The minimum (maximum) convective available potential energy (convective inhibition) value required for thunderstorm development is not uniform throughout the country. However, the composites of K index and total totals index during thunderstorms are mostly uniform. This study highlights the benefits of IMERG rainfall in thunderstorm detection over India and helps to understand the local forcings and the effect of thunderstorm activity on different sectors like aviation, agriculture and so forth.

Evaluating the impact of topography on the initiation of Nor’westers over eastern India

Pre-monsoon thunderstorms are catastrophic and frequent over eastern and north-eastern India. The Chhota Nagpur plateau (CNP) believes to be the triggering platform for thunderstorms over east India. This study attempted to determine the influence of the CNP topography on thunderstorm formation and propagation by observing the changes in the values of thermodynamic indices over eastern India. The work attempted ten cases of thunderstorms in multiple simulations, i.e. each case simulated three times with varying elevations of CNP topography (in total 30 simulations) by Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF–ARW) model. Our analysis revealed that when the elevation of topography of the CNP changes (increases/decreases), the characteristics of several thermodynamic indices alter considerably (with values changing from negative to the positive side for some indices). We found the Cross Total Index (CTI) shows considerable differences in all the thunderstorm simulations, and the values are higher in the increased CNP topography (∼ −4 to 6 °C). However, the Humidity Index (HI) (∼ −10 to 15 °C) and Convective INhibition (CIN) (∼ −200 to 200 J/Kg) values depict considerable changes in decreased topography. The results are crucial to understanding and quantifying the role of CNP in pre-monsoon thunderstorms over east India.

Impact of aerosols and reactive trace gases concentrations in India

The current scenario united the elite professionals, researchers and scientists throughout the globe to accelerate the sharing of scientific findings making the future brighter on mother Earth. The concentration of reactive trace gases in the atmosphere modulates the human health appreciably. This study presents the changes of aerosol and reactive gases load in the atmosphere from the recent past with the help of CAMS data in Indian domain. Reactive trace gases and aerosols (NO2, O3, SO2, CO & AOD) are now being recognised as having both positive and negative radiative forcing effects. The effects of changes have been studied and found that the concentration of chemically reactive gases and aerosols load drop down from their 17 years long period average (LPA) appreciably (60-70 %) over IGP and 35-40 % in other parts of India except O3 (Increase 20-30 %) in India during the month of April-2020.
 It is observed that the results are agrees quite well with the actual recorded data of CPCB stations located at 12 different places of India. The difference observed between actual observations and CAMS reanalysis during April -2019 & 2020 show that aerosol load in terms of PM-2.5 & PM-10 is appreciably drop down (60-70 %) over IGP and 25-30 % in other parts of India. The concentration of other reactive gases (NO2, SO2 &CO) also drops down about 32 %, 7 %, 17 % over IGP and 16 %, 8 %, 9 % in other parts of India respectively. The concentration of Ozone shows slightly positive behaviour over IGP and negative at other parts of India. 
 Few pockets of Central and South of India show higher concentration may due to ongoing essential activities of cluster of industries or delayed slowdown. The other reason may be the influx of moisture due to the pre-monsoon thunder storm activity during this period. Vertical air flow Omega (positive) at 850 hPa NCEP/NCAR reanalysis also support the confinement of gases at lower levels. This study is further brought out a message for future that we should use the natural resources judiciously as their long term consumption can cause severe health problems and a psychological burden or stress globally during this COVID-19 spread period.

Distinct urban land cover response to meteorology in WRF simulated pre-monsoon thunderstorms over the tropical city of Kolkata

Distinct urban land cover response to meteorology in WRF simulated pre-monsoon thunderstorms over the tropical city of Kolkata

Pre-monsoon Thunderstorm Season Climatology of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Convective Inhibition (CIN) over Eastern India

The present work analyses climatological variations of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Convective Inhibition (CIN) over the eastern India (Odisha, West Bengal and Jharkhand) during the pre-monsoon season, where thunderstorms are frequent and disastrous. The work utilises European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis data: ERA-5 for 1987-2016, supplemented with information about thunderstorm occurrences over the region from India Meteorological Department (IMD). The CAPE and CIN values can differentiate thunderstorm days (TD) from non-thunderstorm days (NTD), with favourable conditions of convective weather on days of thunderstorms over the region, evident by CAPE and CIN. The coastal areas of Odisha and West Bengal, along with the Jharkhand bordering the northern West Bengal region, have higher CAPE and lower CIN values. The trend analysis of CAPE and CIN has been performed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, which shows an apparent transformation of indices over time for different regions of states for TD and NTD. CAPE shows an increasing trend over the coastal districts of Odisha and West Bengal during TD and for the whole of West Bengal during 12 UTC NTD. The NTD cases show a decreasing trend over Odisha (both 00 and 12 UTC) and 00 UTC over West Bengal. CIN shows an increasing trend for TD and decreasing trend for NTD over whole Odisha, whereas, for West Bengal, trends are positive for coastal regions during TD and negative on the entire state during NTD. For Jharkhand, both the CAPE and CIN values show an increasing trend over the state during NTD, whereas for TD, both increasing/decreasing trends are visible. The analysis complements the observations of thunderstorm occurrence over the region to understand areas with higher potential of thunderstorm occurrence during pre-monsoon season.

Observation of stratosphere–troposphere exchange during a pre-monsoon thunderstorm activity over Kochi, India

Observation of stratosphere–troposphere exchange during a pre-monsoon thunderstorm activity over Kochi, India

Spatial variation of thermodynamic indices over north-east India during pre-monsoon thunderstorm season

During the pre-monsoon season in the Eastern and North-eastern Indian regions, thunderstorms are the primary source of precipitation. The intensity and frequency of these thunderstorms are changing over time in these areas. The knowledge of atmospheric instability associated with these pre-monsoon thunderstorms can be aptly collected using thermodynamic indices. Thermodynamic indices integrate the comprehending convective atmosphere's geographical and temporal interpretation and are crucial in thunderstorm nowcasting. The present work investigated the spatial variation of thermodynamic indices for 1987–2016 over two tropical north-eastern states of India (Assam and Tripura) using the ERA-5 reanalysis data with 0.25° × 0.25° (31 km) resolution. The analysis incorporated information on thunderstorm days (TD) and non-thunderstorm days (NTD) provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for differentiating the spatial variations of thermodynamic indices. The thermodynamic indices used in this work are categorised as conditional, potential, and convective instabilities. The results reveal that indices associated with convective and potential instabilities perform better for differentiating thunderstorms. We have incorporated the Man-Kendall trend analysis to investigate the trends in the spatial variation of thermodynamic indices. The results indicate that the region is showing higher instability for thunderstorm occurrences on TD, and there is higher moisture availability for the area during the whole pre-monsoon season. The inhibition is higher over NTD days, limiting the convective activity occurrence on certain days. The severity of thunderstorms as analysed with the help of thermodynamic indices are not changing over the region.

Incorporation of Surface Observations in the Land Data Assimilation System and Application to Mesoscale Simulation of Pre-monsoon Thunderstorms

In the present study, local insitu observations are utilized in the Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) to generate high-resolution (4 km and hourly) soil moisture (SM) and soil temperature (ST) data over India. Further, the impact of the LDAS-derived SM and ST initialization on simulation of pre-monsoon (March–May) thunderstorms over the Gangetic West Bengal region are assessed. The high-resolution (4 km and hourly) land surface conditions such as SM and ST data are prepared for the period from 2010 to 2013 using the LDAS forced with various insitu observations from Automatic Weather Stations (AWS), Meteorological Aviation Reports (METAR), and micro-meteorological tower observations over India. Four thunderstorm (TS) events during the pre-monsoon season of 2010 are considered for the numerical experiments using climatological SM and ST at coarser resolution (CNTR) and LDAS-generated high-resolution SM and ST (WLDAS) for initializing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The efficacy of the LDAS-generated SM and ST data are verified against micro-meteorological tower observations at Kharagpur, West Bengal, and the results indicate the magnitude and variation in the data product are close to observations. The initialization of high-resolution LDAS-generated SM and ST in the WRF improves the simulation of near-surface air temperature, humidity, and pressure at Kharagapur. Most importantly, the location and timing of the storm are relatively better simulated in the WLDAS than CNTR over the Kolkata region. The study encourages the use of more local observations in the generation of high-resolution SM and ST data for application in the simulation of pre-monsoon TSs.

Trends of thermodynamic indices thresholds over two tropical stations of north-east India during pre-monsoon thunderstorms

Thermodynamic indices have been used as a tool for nowcasting thunderstorms for decades. The present study deals with understanding the variations in threshold values of various thermodynamic indices during pre-monsoon season at two north-eastern Indian stations: Agartala and Guwahati. The study utilises thirty years (1987–2016) of radiosonde data, surface information about thunderstorms, and TRMM daily rainfall data. The threshold values for five years period interval each has been determined for fourteen thermodynamic indices to the whole period. The indices related to latent, potential and convective instability responded differently at both the sites.

Pre-monsoon convective events and thermodynamic features of southwest monsoon onset over Kerala, India – A case study

The thermodynamic characteristics of the atmosphere during the pre-monsoon thunderstorm period and the transition phase from pre-monsoon to monsoon period over the gateway of Indian summer monsoon is investigated in this study. The study utilizes Stratosphere-Troposphere (ST) wind profiling Radar, Microwave Radiometer, and GPS radiosonde observations. A sharp increase in the boundary-layer and middle-layer moisture content, abrupt changes in the mixing height, lifting condensation level (LCL), convective available potential energy (CAPE), and other thermodynamic variables are noted. The pre-monsoon period is characterized by intermittent deep convection that moistens the middle layers, while stratiform clouds are observed in the monsoon period and deep moist layer is observed. The dry middle-layers observed before the monsoon onset got moistened consistently as the low-level jet strengthened. The LCL height was lower than the mixing height after the onset of monsoon. The wet-bulb zero level (WBZ) height was reduced to 2 km during the pre-monsoon and shifted gradually to higher altitudes as the onset of monsoon occurs. Variations in WBZ height may help in the predictability of monsoon onset. The study has also investigated the characteristics of a thunderstorm event before the onset and suitable indices for early indication of the storm.

Time–height variation of winds and turbulence during typical tropical pre-monsoon thunderstorm events observed from high-resolution Doppler wind lidar measurements

High spatiotemporal resolution measurements of horizontal and vertical winds made using a Doppler wind lidar during development and mature stages of few typical tropical thunderstorm events in 2014 over a continental Indian station are used to study the dynamical changes that take place in the lower atmospheric layers close to surface. Results show significant time–height variability in horizontal wind especially 2–3 h before rainfall on ground. The recorded vertical motions on the thunderstorm days showed that during its developing stage, alternating updrafts and downdrafts are prevalent through the entire vertical column of the lower atmosphere with the magnitude of fluctuations being higher compared to those on non-thunderstorm days. Turbulence intensity is high in magnitude during the evolution of intense convection. Alternating layers of convergence and divergence with horizontally time-stratified layers of strong positive and negative wind shear are observed which seem to contribute to strengthening and vertical growth of local convection. Thus, high-resolution time–height variations in horizontal and vertical winds in the lower atmosphere during the life cycle of a tropical thunderstorm provide a better understanding of the atmospheric dynamics associated with it and short-duration heavy precipitation it produces.

Evaluating the impact of climate change in threshold values of thermodynamic indices during pre-monsoon thunderstorm season over Eastern India

The present study analyses thermodynamic indices variation over three sites of eastern Indian region: Bhubaneswar, Kolkata and Ranchi, associated with pre-monsoon thunderstorms for 20-year period (1987–2006) for Bhubaneswar and Kolkata and 15 years (1996–2010) for Ranchi. All three sites are showing a rise in humidity over the period, unveiling the climate change over the region. We evaluated the threshold values of various thermodynamic indices for periods of 5-year intervals at each site based on skill score analysis. The indices associated with potential, convective, latent instability and moisture are showing varying threshold values over all the sites, and some of the indices are showing a definite increase/decrease in these threshold values. All three sites are showing a decrease in thunderstorm frequency over the study period. The work identifies the thermodynamic indices, which tend to capture the global warming impact in the threshold values by either showing an increase or decrease with the time at each site. The results advocate that for a long-term analysis of thermodynamic indices, the threshold values may change from one period to another.

Urban induced land-use change impact during pre-monsoon thunderstorms over Bhubaneswar-Cuttack urban complex

The effect of urbanization over the Bhubaneswar-Cuttack urban complex, a twin city of eastern India, is investigated in this study. For this purpose, the realistic representation of urban land use (LU) from the ‘Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO)’ and the older ‘United States Geological Survey’ is considered. The sensitivity experiment was performed to choose microphysics that was suitable for the study location. The recent LU simulations improved the amount and spatio-temporal distribution of rainfall over the city. Results suggested that the underlying impervious layer has a remarkable impact on the precipitation, temperature, and other meteorological variables during thunderstorms. Most of the simulated rain is found in the downwind direction of the city core and over the suburban periphery. The variation of the rainfall, showing dual peak characteristics during late evening hour, has excellent correspondence with the associated atmospheric moisture transport and dynamics and thermodynamics. The near-surface temperature and urban heat island found to be well simulated, covering the entire urban core from 12 UTC onward.

A preliminary study on pre-monsoon summer thunderstorms using ground-based total lightning data over Gangetic West Bengal

This paper presents the preliminary results of observation of total lightning characteristics of pre-monsoon thunderstorms of 2018 over Gangetic West Bengal around Kolkata. Mainly, the analysis results of total lightning associated with pre-monsoon moderate and severe thunderstorm events, locally known as Kalbaishakhi or Nor’wester, are presented. The total lightning data include both in-cloud and cloud-to-ground lightning flashes and are obtained from the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network. Most of the events were multi-cellular in nature as inferred from lightning data. The total lightning count over an area of 10 km radius around the wind sensors, increased rapidly about $$\sim $$ 10–40 min before the onset of high wind on the surface. Primarily, total lightning count $$\ge 30$$ per minute was found to be associated with the Nor’westers which produced maximum surface wind speed above 50 km/h.

Investigation of Meteorological Conditions Favourable for Formation of Thunderstorm Occurred Over Bangladesh Through Simulation by WRF-ARW Model

Investigation of meteorological conditions favorable for formation of pre-monsoon thunderstorm over Bangladesh has been conducted by simulating a selected thunderstorm case using ARW dynamic core of WRF model (WRF-ARW). A multi-cell thunderstorm formed on 30-03-2018 over the northwestern tip of Bangladesh and adjacent territories of India and moved south-southeast wards with its highest development at 09:30 UTC was selected for this study. The chosen case of thunderstorm has 3 distinct cells of which 2 cells have the width of over 100 km each and the third one located in the eastern Bangladesh and had the width of 50 km. A WRF ARW model has been applied to examine the atmospheic characteristics favorabe for genesis of selected case run in a double nested domain of resolution of 9x9 km2 in the outer domain and 3 3 km2in the inner domain. The analysis of the geopotential height field of 925 hPa level generated by WRF model at different hours of 31 March 2018 clearly indicates favourable condition with pockets of micro lows and their progression towards central to southeastern Bangladesh. The strong winds blowing from Bay of Bengal along an anticyclone over the Bay brings sufficient moisture to the north. The southerly winds meet the easterly and also westerly winds providing strong low level convergence which favors the convective activities forming cumulus cells. The orography of foothills may also enhance the convections. The wind in the upper tropospheric winds attains jet speed over these areas. The distribution of divergence and vorticity in the 925 hPa level shows the evolution of system. The distribution of precipitation shows that the spatial patterns were well captured. Vertical velocity has been plotted along the vertical-horizontal plane oriented in the east-west direction across a high rainfall cell. This shows that the highest development of narrow vertical cell extends up to 100 hPa level. Following the temporal evolution of the system, it is seen that the highest development delayed by around 2 hours. Some mitigation strategies in respect of thunderstorms and associated lighting are also discussed.
 Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 68(1): 71-77, 2020 (January)

Study of Pre-Monsoon Thunderstorms and Associated Thermodynamic Features Over Bangladesh Using WRF-ARW Model

Thunderstorm is a mesoscale system (from a km to below thousands of km and sustaining less than one hour). Two pre-monsoon thunderstorms events are analyzed in this study which are named as event-1 (0030-0150 UTC of 19 April 2018 over Chattogram) and event-2 (0600-1000 UTC of 4 May 2018 over Dhaka). To predict these events Mean Convective Available Potential Energy (mCAPE), Mean Convective Inhibition Energy (mCINE), K Index (KI), Total totals Index (TTI), wind distribution, and relative humidity (RH) are investigated.The model simulated mCAPE and mCINE values, 18 hours before the events, are found greater than 1700 J/Kg and less than 100 J/Kg respectively which satisfies the conditions for thunderstorms to occur.The KI values are close to 400C and TTI values are greater or equal to 450C for both events. The wind patterns and the high value of mid –tropospheric RH also favors the formation of severe thunderstorm.
 Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 67(2): 151-156, 2019 (July)

Simulation of location-specific severe thunderstorm events using high resolution land data assimilation

In this study, the impact of different land initial conditions on the simulation of thunderstorms and monsoon depressions is investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A control run (CNTL) and a simulation with an improved land state (soil moisture and temperature) using the High Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS, experiment name: EHRLDAS) are compared for three different rainfall cases in order to examine the robustness of the assimilation system. The study comprises two thunderstorm cases (one in the pre-monsoon and one during the monsoon) and one monsoon depression case that occurred during the Interaction of Convective Organisation, Atmosphere, Surface and Sea (INCOMPASS) field campaign of the 2016 Indian monsoon. EHRLDAS is shown to yield improvements in the representation of location-specific rainfall, particularly over land. Further, it is found that surface fluxes as well as convective indices are better captured for the pre-monsoon thunderstorm case in EHRLDAS. By analysing components of the vorticity tendency equation, it is found that the vertical advection term is the major contributor towards the positive vorticity tendency in EHRLDAS compared to CNTL, hence improving localised convection and consequently facilitating rainfall. Significant improvements in the simulation of the pre-monsoon thunderstorm are noted, as seen using Automatic Weather Station (AWS) validation, whereas improvements in the monsoon depression are minimal. Further, it is found that vertical advection (moisture flux convergence) is the major driver modulating the convective circulation in localised thunderstorm (monsoon depression) cases and these dynamics are better represented by EHRLDAS compared to CNTL. These findings underline the importance of accurate and high resolution land-state conditions in model initial conditions for forecasting severe weather systems, particularly the simulation of localised thunderstorms over India.