Premature Non-communicable Diseases Mortality Research Articles

The role of lifestyles in the commitment to the Unites Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3. An exploratory study

PurposeThe World Health Organisation recognises that health and well-being are essential to achieve the United Nations Development Agenda 2030. Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading causes of ill-health worldwide. Much of the global burden of NCD is caused by individual unhealthy behaviours. A behavioural mindset shift is needed to reduce premature NCD mortality. This article provides an exploratory analysis to understand whether Portuguese society is on the path to achieving better health by considering certain unacceptable individual lifestyles that contribute to diseases and could be avoided.Design/methodology/approachAn online questionnaire was used to collect data from 558 Portuguese citizens. Descriptive statistics and non-parametric tests were used to (1) assess whether respondents were aware of premature mortality caused by NCDs, (2) explore whether individuals should be accountable for their disease-related behaviours, and (3) test for associations between this accountability and respondents sociodemographic and health characteristics.FindingsOverall, respondents were unaware of the rate of premature mortality associated with chronic diseases and were unwilling to hold fellow citizens accountable for their unhealthy lifestyles. Following a healthy lifestyle proved relevant in the moralisation of others' unhealthy lifestyles, especially those who practice physical exercise.Originality/valueThis study is the first attempt to awaken attention to the impact that societies' procrastination for others' harmful health behaviours may have on achieving Sustainable Development GoalS (SDGs) and sustainable development.

Contextual factors in premature non-communicable disease mortality in selected African countries within the sustainable development goals framework: the implication of voice and accountability.

Sustainable Development Goal number 3, target 4 (SDG 3.4), seeks a 30% reduction in premature Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) mortality from 2015 levels by 2030. Africa United Nations (UN) Member States continue to experience increasing NCD mortality significantly, with the highest proportion of diabetes mortality among the working-age group. Past efforts to address this burden have been centered primarily on individual risk modifications evident by the NCDs Cluster Program at the World Health Organization (WHO) Africa Regional Office. To achieve a progressive reduction, a comprehensive premature NCD reduction approach which includes a consideration of contexts within which premature NCD, such diabetes mortality arises is necessary. The aim was to examine the relationship between contextual factors and diabetes-related deaths as premature NCD mortality and to enable an improved contextualized evidence-based approach to premature NCD mortality reduction. Country-level data was retrieved for post SDG initiative years (2016-2019) from multiple publicly available data sources for 32 selected Africa UN Member States in the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) East and West Africa Region. Multiple linear regression was employed to examine the relationship between diabetes-related deaths in individuals 20-79 years and contextual factors identified within the SDG framework. Weighted data analysis showed that voice and accountability as a contextual factor explained approximately 47% variability in diabetes-related deaths across the selected Africa UN Member Sates in IDF East and West Region (n=32). Civil society engagement is vital to develop effective premature NCD mortality reduction policies, and strategies and stakeholders’ accountabilities are necessary to ensure adherence to obligations.

Analysis of death causes of residents in poverty-stricken Areas in 2020: take Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture in China as an example

BackgroundContinuous surveillance of death can measure health status of the population, reflect social development of a region, thus promote health service development in the region and improve the health level of local residents. Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture was a poverty-stricken region in Sichuan province, China. While at the end of 2020, as the announcement of its last seven former severely impoverished counties had shaken off poverty, Liangshan declared victory against poverty. Since it is well known that the mortality and cause of death structure will undergo some undesirable changes as the economy develops, this study aimed to reveal the distribution of deaths, as well as analyze the latest mortality and death causes distribution characteristics in Liangshan in 2020, so as to provide references for the decision-making on health policies and the distribution of health resources in global poverty-stricken areas.MethodsLiangshan carried out the investigation on underreporting deaths among population in its 11 counties in 2018, and combined with the partially available data from underreporting deaths investigation data in 2020 and the field experience, we have estimated the underreporting rates of death in 2020 using capture-recapture (CRC) method. The crude mortality rate, age-standardized mortality rate, proportion and rank of the death causes, potential years of life lost (PYLL), average years of life lost (AYLL), potential years of life lost rate (PYLLR), standardized potential years of life lost (SPYLL), premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (premature NCD mortality), life expectancy and cause-eliminated life expectancy were estimated and corrected.ResultsIn 2020, Liangshan reported a total of 16,850 deaths, with a crude mortality rate of 608.75/100,000 and an age-standardized mortality rate of 633.50/100,000. Male mortality was higher than female mortality, while 0-year-old mortality of men was lower than women’s. The former severely impoverished counties’ age-standardized mortality and 0-year-old mortality were higher than those of the non-impoverished counties. The main cause of death spectrum was noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), and the premature NCD mortality of four major NCDs were 14.26% for the overall population, 19.16% for men and 9.27% for women. In the overall population, the top five death causes were heart diseases (112.07/100,000), respiratory diseases (105.85/100,000), cerebrovascular diseases (87.03/100,000), malignant tumors (73.92/100,000) and injury (43.89/100,000). Injury (64,216.78 person years), malignant tumors (41,478.33 person years) and heart diseases (29,647.83 person years) had the greatest burden on residents in Liangshan, and at the same time, the burden of most death causes on men were greater than those on women. The life expectancy was 76.25 years for overall population, 72.92 years for men and 80.17 years for women, respectively, all higher than the global level (73.3, 70.8 and 75.9 years).ConclusionsTaking Liangshan in China as an example, this study analyzed the latest death situation in poverty-stricken areas, and proposed suggestions on the formulation of health policies in other poverty-stricken areas both at home and abroad.

Premature mortality due to four main non-communicable diseases and suicide in Brazil and its states from 1990 to 2019: A Global Burden of Disease Study.

INTRODUCTION: The goal of reducing the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) requires close monitoring. Our objective is to characterize the decline of premature NCD mortality in Brazil based on Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) Study 2019 estimates. METHODS: We used GBD 2019 data to estimate death rates of the four main NCDs - cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, diabetes, and chronic respiratory diseases. We estimated the unconditional probability of death between ages 30 to 69, as recommended by the World Health Organization, as well as premature crude- and age-standardized death rates and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost for these conditions. We also estimated trends in suicide (self-harm) death rates. RESULTS: From 2010 to 2019, the age-standardized unconditional probability of premature death declined -1.4%/year (UI: -1.7%;-1.0%) . Age-standardized death rates declined -1.5%/year (UI: -1.9%; -1.2%), and crude death rates -0.6%/year (UI: (-1.0%; -0.2%). Level of development correlated strongly with the rate of decline, with greatest declines occurring in the Southeast, Center West and South regions. Age-standardized mortality from self-harm declined, most notably in the elderly. CONCLUSIONS: Premature mortality due to the main NCDs has declined from 1990 in Brazil, although at a diminishing rate over time. The unconditional probability of death and the age-standardized mortality rate produced similar estimates of decline for the four main NCDs, and mirror well decline in mortality from all NCDs. Declines, especially more recent ones, fall short of the international goals. Strategic public health actions are needed. The challenge to implement them will be great, considering the political and economic instability currently faced by Brazil.

Progress and challenges in achieving noncommunicable diseases targets for the sustainable development goals.

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development adopted by the United Nations in 2015 recognizes noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) as a major public health challenge. Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3 includes target 3.4 to reduce premature NCD mortality by one‐third by 2030. This review article analyzes the progress towards the attainment of targets within 3.4, the gaps in meeting the targets, and implementation challenges correlated with those gaps. A literature review was performed in September 2020 to identify the published literature and data discussing the SDGs and NCDs, its progress since 2015, and the associated challenges. The analysis reveals SDG target 3.4 is interrelated to at least nine SDGs. There have been many positive SDG initiatives, but the progress has been slow. Data from various countries show that only two out of the ten NCD progress indicators are being met by at least half of the 176 countries who signed the SDGs. The ongoing COVID‐19 pandemic is expected to further aggravate the prevalence and hinder the progress towards the achievement of goals and the targets of the SDGs. The next decade is critical to advance progress on reducing NCDs across countries. The article concludes with a commentary and recommended actions. A combination of prevention, early detection, and treatment are the key to achieve the SDG 3.4 targets. Increased funding and commitments at international and national levels are required to bring about the transformative changes.

Atrial fibrillation in low- and middle-income countries: a narrative review.

Preventing premature non-communicable disease mortality necessitates a thorough review of one of the most important risk factors for stroke, which is atrial fibrillation (AF). The latter and AF-related stroke are still considered to be problems of high-income countries and are frequently overlooked in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). In this narrative review, we provide an overview of studies that evaluated at least one of the following determinants of AF burden in LMICs: current epidemiology and trends, stroke prevention, health outcomes, and economic burden. Studies focusing on samples close to the general population (including community- and primary care-based samples) indicate sex-specific prevalence rates up to 7.4% in LMICs. Although AF prevalence is still higher in high-income countries than LMICs, the gap in AF burden between these two groups has been reducing in the past three decades. Oral anticoagulant (OAC) therapy for stroke prevention is underused in LMICs, and there are little data on OAC therapy in relation to stroke risk scores, such as CHA2DS2-VASc. Available data also points to higher morbidity and mortality for patient with AF in LMICs than their counterparts in high-income countries. Data on the consequent economic burden in LMICs is scarce, but it is reasonable to consider it will follow the same trend as that observed for health outcomes. Raising the visibility of AF as a public health problem in LMICs is necessary as a first step to providing adequate care for patients with this condition.

Implementation of non-communicable disease policies: a geopolitical analysis of 151 countries

SummaryBackgroundMost countries have endorsed WHO non-communicable disease (NCD) best buy policies, but we know very little about global implementation patterns and about the geopolitical factors affecting implementation. We aimed to assess global implementation based on analysis of multiple geopolitical datasets.MethodsWe used the 2015 and 2017 WHO NCD progress monitor reports to calculate aggregate implementation scores for 151 countries, based on their implementation of 18 WHO-recommended NCD policies. We ranked all countries and used descriptive statistics to analyse global trends. We used linear regression to assess the associations between policy implementation and World Bank geographic region, risk of premature NCD mortality, percentage of all deaths caused by NCDs, World Bank income group, human capital index, democracy index, and tax burden.FindingsIn 2017, the mean NCD policy implementation score was 49·3% (SD 18·4%). Costa Rica and Iran had the joint-highest implementation scores (86·1% of all WHO-recommended policies). Scores were lowest in Haiti and South Sudan (5·5%). Between 2015 and 2017, aggregate implementation scores rose in 109 countries and regressed in 32 countries. Mean implementation rose for all of the 18 policies except for those targeting alcohol and physical activity. The most commonly implemented policies were clinical guidelines, graphic warnings on tobacco packaging, and NCD risk factor surveys. Our multiple linear regression model explained 61·1% of the variance in 2017 aggregate scores (p<0·0001), but we found evidence of a high degree of collinearity between the explanatory variables.InterpretationImplementation of WHO-recommended NCD policies is increasing over time. On average, countries implemented just under half of the NCD policies recommended by WHO in 2017. Nutrition-related policies saw gains, while those related to alcohol and physical activity were the most likely to have been dropped. Aggregate implementation scores tended to be highest in high-income countries that invest in health care and education.FundingNational Institute for Health Research, Imperial College London, University of Oxford.

Implications of the growing burden of diabetes for premature cardiovascular disease mortality and the attainment of the Sustainable Development Goal target 3.4.

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are a major cause of deaths globally, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of these deaths. 42% of NCD deaths are premature (occurring before the age of 70 years). As part of the United Nations 3rd Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) on health and wellbeing, target 3.4 is to reduce premature mortality from NCDs by one third between 2015 and 2030. This target adds to the World Health Organization (WHO) target of reducing premature deaths from NCDs by 25% between 2010 and 2025. As diabetes is a major risk factor for CVD, it is important to account for the trends in diabetes when considering premature CVD mortality. We aimed to describe the global trends in diabetes prevalence and mortality, critically review the literature on the estimated attainability of the WHO and SDG targets, and determine if and how these studies accounted for trends in diabetes. Worldwide, the prevalence of diabetes is rising, with an estimated 9.0% global prevalence in adults aged 20-69 by 2030, and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) having the largest increase of the burden in absolute numbers and age-standardized prevalence. There is a lack of data from most LMICs on the excess CVD mortality associated with diabetes and therefore no consensus on the global risk of CVD mortality in people with diabetes. Where data do exist, there are discrepancies between studies on the direction of mortality trends from diabetes over time. We reviewed 12 studies that estimated the attainability of the WHO or SDG targets for premature NCD mortality. Seven of these considered the potential impacts of achieving the 2025 WHO risk factor targets. Six studies modelled the impact of current trends in risk factors, including diabetes, continuing toward the target dates. Four studies compared this 'business as usual' model with the attainment of the risk factor targets for the world as whole and individual regions, 2 studies for NCD mortality overall, and 2 specifically for CVD mortality. On the impact of diabetes with regards to attainment of the WHO or SDG targets for premature CVD mortality, the overall results were inconclusive. Some concluded that none of the countries or regions considered would meet the targets, and others predicted that in some areas, the targets would be met. Examining the potential impact of trends in diabetes on future CVD mortality rates in LMICs is limited by a relative lack of high quality studies, including on the age specific excess mortality associated with diabetes. Filling these data gaps will enable better estimates of the potential impacts on future CVD mortality of the rapidly increasing prevalence of diabetes in LMICs and help to better inform health policy and the attainment of SDG target 3.4.

Increase in premature mortality due to non-communicable diseases in Sri Lanka during the first decade of the twenty-first century

BackgroundGlobally, non-communicable diseases (NCD) are the leading cause of death and more than 40% of NCD deaths are premature occurring before the age of 70 years. In 2012, World Health Assembly declared its commitment to reduce premature NCD mortality by 25% from 2010 to 2025. The trend of premature NCD deaths in Sri Lanka has not been assessed and thus this study was done to assess it between 2001 to 2010.MethodsDeaths due to cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes were studied. Premature NCD mortality was assessed using unconditional probability of dying (UPoD) due to NCDs among those aged 30 to 70 years. Number of relevant premature NCD deaths that occurred in each 5-year age interval and the respective mid-year population was used to calculate UPoD.ResultsDuring the period of 2001 to 2010, premature NCD mortality in Sri Lanka increased from 15·8% to 19·1% and males showed higher mortality compared to females throughout the period. Highest mortality was due to cardiovascular diseases followed by cancer and diabetes and all three showed an increasing trend. Chronic respiratory diseases showed an increase until 2004 and dropped thereafter. Among the four NCDs, diabetes revealed the most marked increasing trend in premature mortality during this period.ConclusionsThe data revealed an increasing trend of premature NCD mortality in Sri Lanka between 2001 and 2010 although it has a relatively lower premature NCD mortality rate in the South-East Asian Region. Therefore, reducing premature NCD mortality by 25% from 2010 to 2025 is likely to be a rather challenging task in Sri Lanka and policy level changes need to be taken to achieve this target.

Taxes for health: evidence clears the air

Taxes for health: evidence clears the air

The NCDs Cooperative: a call to action

Over the past 20 years, decision makers have largely stood impotent as non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have exploded around the world. Without a dramatic change in strategy, this resounding collective failure will persist. As I travelled the globe as one of three nominees for the Director-General of WHO, I met with 191 country delegations, including heads of state, foreign ministers, and health ministers. The good news on NCDs is that policy makers have both an awareness of the problem and an appetite for change. Unfortunately, this is not paralleled with action. 1 Horton R Offline: NCDs—why are we failing?. Lancet. 2017; 390: 346 Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (35) Google Scholar We must understand why not. Port-of-Spain Declaration for global NCD preventionAs global health researchers who work on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and global health diplomacy, we were delighted to see the prioritisation of and emphasis on a global commitment to tackle the epidemic of NCDs in the Comment1 by Sania Nishtar (Oct 21, p 1820). Nishtar suggests excellent strategies, such as a multi stakeholder structure to serve as a holistic platform, to enable transparency and accountability to negotiate policy space for NCDs. Nishtar also highlights that none of the more than 80 disease-specific partnerships that have been created holistically address NCDs, and that this requires a multisectoral, partnership-based solution. Full-Text PDF Universal health coverage is needed to deliver NCD controlPresident Vázquez and Tedros Ghebreyesus (Sept 23, p 1473)1 rightly highlight the urgent global need for fiscal, trade, environmental, and political actions against non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Sania Nishtar suggests that scope exists for a new NCD agency because such diseases “have exploded around the world”.2 However, hyperbole around NCDs is unhelpful. Premature NCD mortality (ie, mortality in individuals aged 30–69 years) is estimated to be decreasing across all sociodemographic quintiles (figure). Full-Text PDF

Socioeconomic status and non-communicable disease behavioural risk factors in low-income and lower-middle-income countries: a systematic review.

SummaryBackgroundNon-communicable diseases are the leading global cause of death and disproportionately afflict those living in low-income and lower-middle-income countries (LLMICs). The association between socioeconomic status and non-communicable disease behavioural risk factors is well established in high-income countries, but it is not clear how behavioural risk factors are distributed within LLMICs. We aimed to systematically review evidence on the association between socioeconomic status and harmful use of alcohol, tobacco use, unhealthy diets, and physical inactivity within LLMICs.MethodsWe searched 13 electronic databases, including Embase and MEDLINE, grey literature, and reference lists for primary research published between Jan 1, 1990, and June 30, 2015. We included studies from LLMICs presenting data on multiple measures of socioeconomic status and tobacco use, alcohol use, diet, and physical activity. No age or language restrictions were applied. We excluded studies that did not allow comparison between more or less advantaged groups. We used a piloted version of the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care Group data collection checklist to extract relevant data at the household and individual level from the included full text studies including study type, methods, outcomes, and results. Due to high heterogeneity, we used a narrative approach for data synthesis. We used descriptive statistics to assess whether the prevalence of each risk factor varied significantly between members of different socioeconomic groups. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42015026604.FindingsAfter reviewing 4242 records, 75 studies met our inclusion criteria, representing 2 135 314 individuals older than 10 years from 39 LLMICs. Low socioeconomic groups were found to have a significantly higher prevalence of tobacco and alcohol use than did high socioeconomic groups. These groups also consumed less fruit, vegetables, fish, and fibre than those of high socioeconomic status. High socioeconomic groups were found to be less physically active and consume more fats, salt, and processed food than individuals of low socioeconomic status. While the included studies presented clear patterns for tobacco use and physical activity, heterogeneity between dietary outcome measures and a paucity of evidence around harmful alcohol use limit the certainty of these findings.InterpretationDespite significant heterogeneity in exposure and outcome measures, clear evidence shows that the burden of behavioural risk factors is affected by socioeconomic position within LLMICs. Governments seeking to meet Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.4—reducing premature non-communicable disease mortality by a third by 2030—should leverage their development budgets to address the poverty-health nexus in these settings. Our findings also have significance for health workers serving these populations and policy makers tasked with preventing and controlling the rise of non-communicable diseases.FundingWHO.

CARDIOVASCULAR AND OTHER NON-COMMUNICABLE DISEASES IN THE COUNTRIES OF THE NORTHERN DIMENSION PARTNERSHIP IN PUBLIC HEALTH AND SOCIAL WELL-BEING: PRIORITIES AND BETTER PREVENTION APPROACHES

The issues on prevention of non-communicable diseases (NCD) with the goal of premature mortality decrease and, respectively, of people lives saving, is being discussed actively in the countries of Northern Dimension Partnership in Public Health and Social Well-being (NDPHS). Comparative analysis of NCD in the NDP countries showed serious, approximately 3 times, differences in the parameters of premature mortality from NCD within the countries, and direct relationship of premature mortality from NCD with smoking prevalence in men, as with alcohol consumption in both sexes. Negative correlation is found in premature NCD mortality indices and amount of money spent on public health per person per year; such difference is as high as 10-15 times among the countries. The discussion of priorities and effective methods of NCD prevention by the members of NDPHS is significant for experience exchange and facilitates implementation of three strategies on NCD prevention and their promotion in all political and strategic events in the countries.

Probability of premature mortality caused by non-communicable diseases in Beijing, 2010-2015

Objective: To understand the probability of premature mortality caused by non-communicable diseases (NCD) in Beijing from 2010 to 2015. Methods: The data of deaths from Beijing vital registration system were used to analyze age-standardized NCD mortality rates, proportion of NCD deaths in age group <70 years and premature NCD mortality. Results: NCD deaths accounted for 90% of the total deaths in Beijing. Age-standardized NCD death rate decreased from 332.43/100 000 in 2010 to 280.02/100 000 in 2015. Meanwhile, the probability of deaths from four NCDs between in age group 30-70 years (premature NCD mortality) decreased from 12.81% to 11.11% in Beijing. The premature mortality of four NCDs in men was 14.63%, and compared with 2015 baseline, it would decrease by 16.4% to reach 2025 goal (12.23%), and the probability of premature mortality four NCDs in women was 7.54%, and compared with 2015 baseline, it would decrease by 6.8% to reach the 2025 goal (7.03%). People living in suburb areas had a higher probability of premature NCD mortality (13.67%) than those living in urban areas (9.72%) in Beijing in 2015. Conclusions: The premature NCD mortality was much higher in men than in women in Beijing. More attention should be paid to the control of risk factors for NCD premature deaths, especially in men and in suburb residents, to reach the 25×25 goal.

Engaging young people in the prevention of noncommunicable diseases.

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are one of the biggest public health challenges of the 21st century.1 The social and economic impact of NCDs are threatening progress towards sustainable development. NCDs are the leading causes of death,2 causing 16 million premature deaths annually.3 Four main groups of noncommunicable diseases – cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes – account for 82% of all NCD attributable deaths.3 By 2025, the global economic cost from these four groups of diseases is predicted to surpass 51 trillion United States dollars.4 Despite a common assumption that NCDs are “diseases of affluence” only affecting people in wealthy nations, NCDs disproportionately affect people in low- and middle-income countries. The probability of dying prematurely from NCD in a low- and middle-income country is four times higher than that in high-income countries.3 It is important for young people to understand NCDs and their risk factors. Two-thirds of premature deaths in adults are associated with childhood conditions5 or behaviours initiated in youth: over 150 million young people smoke;5 81% of adolescents don’t get enough physical activity;6 11.7% of adolescents partake in heavy episodic drinking7 and 41 million children under 5 years old are overweight or obese.8 Entrenched behaviours and unhealthy environments ensure that NCDs will continue to affect future generations. Many young people today have unprecedented access to information and the capacity to act on that information in shaping their own lives, and determining their own health status.9 Young people can contribute in several ways to prevent NCDs. By using new media, young voices can provide a novel perspective on NCD prevention and control by sharing targeted messages on key risk factors and interventions. Young people can engage with different communities and share information about NCDs. Young people can lead programmes to promote healthy behaviour, such as community exercise classes, or healthy eating programmes. We can contribute to education and awareness initiatives, to inform the public and decision-makers about health problems and solutions. Young medical and allied health students also have a unique opportunity to get involved. Students on clinical rotations can promote effective disease prevention measures such as tobacco cessation. Young people can also advocate for policies and practices that aim to improve NCD prevention and care. In 2011, more than 190 countries agreed on global mechanisms to reduce the avoidable NCD burden including a Global action plan for the prevention and control of NCDs 2013–2020.10 So far this commitment has yielded insufficient resources and political action to reach the target of 25% reduction in premature NCD mortality by 2025. It is our responsibility to hold our governments accountable for their commitments to the 2011 political declaration on NCDs. We suggest that all institutions working on NCDs evaluate how they gather and act on the perspectives of young people. NCD prevention should be included in the agenda of international youth groups and integrated in all medical, nursing and allied health curriculums. To reduce the impact of NCDs, the next generation needs to be involved in recognizing and changing the conditions that favour these diseases.

Regional contributions of six preventable risk factors to achieving the 25 × 25 non-communicable disease mortality reduction target: a modelling study.

Countries have agreed to reduce premature mortality from the four main non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by 25% from 2010 levels by 2025 (referred to as the 25 × 25 target). Countries also agreed on a set of global voluntary targets for selected NCD risk factors. Previous analyses have shown that achieving the risk factor targets can contribute substantially towards meeting the 25 × 25 mortality target at the global level. We estimated the contribution of achieving six of the globally agreed risk factor targets towards meeting the 25 × 25 mortality target by region. We estimated the effect of achieving the targets for six risk factors (tobacco and alcohol use, salt intake, obesity, and raised blood pressure and glucose) on NCD mortality between 2010 and 2025. Our methods accounted for multicausality of NCDs and for the fact that, when risk factor exposure increases or decreases, the harmful or beneficial effects on NCDs accumulate gradually. We used data for risk factor and mortality trends from systematic analyses of available country data. Relative risks for the effects of individual and multiple risks, and for change in risk after decreases or increases in exposure, were from reanalyses and meta-analyses of epidemiological studies. The probability of dying between the ages 30 years and 70 years from the four main NCDs in 2010 ranged from 19% in the region of the Americas to 29% in southeast Asia for men, and from 13% in Europe to 21% in southeast Asia for women. If current trends continue, the probability of dying prematurely from the four main NCDs is projected to increase in the African region but decrease in the other five regions. If the risk factor targets are achieved, the 25 × 25 target will be surpassed in Europe in both men and women, and will be achieved in women (and almost achieved in men) in the western Pacific; the regions of the Americas, the eastern Mediterranean, and southeast Asia will approach the target; and the rising trend in Africa will be reversed. In most regions, a more ambitious approach to tobacco control (50% reduction relative to 2010 instead of the agreed 30%) will contribute the most to reducing premature NCD mortality among men, followed by addressing raised blood pressure and the agreed tobacco target. For women, the highest contributing risk factor towards the premature NCD mortality target will be raised blood pressure in every region except Europe and the Americas, where the ambitious (but not agreed) tobacco reduction would have the largest benefit. No WHO region will meet the 25 × 25 premature mortality target if current mortality trends continue. Achieving the agreed targets for the six risk factors will allow some regions to meet the 25 × 25 target and others to approach it. Meeting the 25 × 25 target in Africa needs other interventions, including those addressing infection-related cancers and cardiovascular disease. UK Medical Research Council.

Achieving a 25% reduction in premature non-communicable disease mortality: the Swedish population as a cohort study.

BackgroundThe 2012 World Health Assembly set a target for Member States to reduce premature non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality by 25% over the period 2010 to 2025. This reflected concerns about increasing NCD mortality burdens among productive adults globally. This article first considers whether the WHO target of a 25% reduction in the unconditional probability of dying between ages of 30 and 70 from NCDs (cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes, or chronic respiratory diseases) has already taken place in Sweden during an equivalent 15-year period. Secondly, it assesses which population sub-groups have been more or less successful in contributing to overall changes in premature NCD mortality in Sweden.MethodsA retrospective dynamic cohort database was constructed from Swedish population registers in the Linnaeus database, covering the entire population in the age range 30 to 69 years for the period 1991 to 2006, which was used directly to measure reductions in premature NCD mortality using a life table method as specified by the WHO. Multivariate Poisson regression models were used to assess the contributions of individual background factors to decreases in premature NCD mortality.ResultsA total of 292,320 deaths occurred in the 30 to 69 year age group during the period 1991 to 2006, against 70,768,848 person-years registered. The crude all-cause mortality rate declined from 5.03 to 3.72 per 1,000 person-years, a 26% reduction. Within this, the unconditional probability of dying between the ages of 30 and 70 from NCD causes as defined by the WHO fell by 30.0%. Age was consistently the strongest determinant of NCD mortality. Background determinants of NCD mortality changed significantly over the four time periods 1991–1994, 1995–1998, 1999–2002, and 2003–2006.ConclusionsSweden, now at a late stage of epidemiological transition, has already exceeded the 25% premature NCD mortality reduction target during an earlier 15-year period. This should be encouraging news for countries currently implementing premature NCD mortality reduction programmes. Our findings suggest, however, that it may be difficult for Sweden and other late-transition countries to reach the current 25 × 25 target, particularly where substantial premature mortality reductions have already been achieved.

Adult non-communicable disease mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites

Background Mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a major global issue, as other categories of mortality have diminished and life expectancy has increased. The World Health Organization's Member States have called for a 25% reduction in premature NCD mortality by 2025, which can only be achieved by substantial reductions in risk factors and improvements in the management of chronic conditions. A high burden of NCD mortality among much older people, who have survived other hazards, is inevitable. The INDEPTH Network collects detailed individual data within defined Health and Demographic Surveillance sites. By registering deaths and carrying out verbal autopsies to determine cause of death across many such sites, using standardised methods, the Network seeks to generate population-based mortality statistics that are not otherwise available. Objective To describe patterns of adult NCD mortality from INDEPTH Network sites across Africa and Asia, according to the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy (VA) cause categories, with separate consideration of premature (15–64 years) and older (65+ years) NCD mortality. Design All adult deaths at INDEPTH sites are routinely registered and followed up with VA interviews. For this study, VA archives were transformed into the WHO 2012 VA standard format and processed using the InterVA-4 model to assign cause of death. Routine surveillance data also provide person-time denominators for mortality rates. Results A total of 80,726 adult (over 15 years) deaths were documented over 7,423,497 person-years of observation. NCDs were attributed as the cause for 35.6% of these deaths. Slightly less than half of adult NCD deaths occurred in the 15–64 age group. Detailed results are presented by age and sex for leading causes of NCD mortality. Per-site rates of NCD mortality were significantly correlated with rates of HIV/AIDS-related mortality. Conclusions These findings present important evidence on the distribution of NCD mortality across a wide range of African and Asian settings. This comes against a background of global concern about the burden of NCD mortality, especially among adults aged under 70, and provides an important baseline for future work.

Contribution of six risk factors to achieving the 25×25 non-communicable disease mortality reduction target: a modelling study

Countries have agreed to reduce premature mortality (defined as the probability of dying between the ages of 30 years and 70 years) from four main non-communicable diseases (NCDs)--cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, cancers, and diabetes--by 25% from 2010 levels by 2025 (referred to as 25×25 target). Targets for selected NCD risk factors have also been agreed on. We estimated the contribution of achieving six risk factor targets towards meeting the 25×25 mortality target. We estimated the impact of achieving the targets for six risk factors (tobacco and alcohol use, salt intake, obesity, and raised blood pressure and glucose) on NCD mortality between 2010 and 2025. Our methods accounted for multi-causality of NCDs and for the fact that when risk factor exposure increases or decreases, the harmful or beneficial effects on NCDs accumulate gradually. We used data for risk factor and mortality trends from systematic analyses of available country data. Relative risks for the effects of individual and multiple risks, and for change in risk after decreases or increases in exposure, were from re-analyses and meta-analyses of epidemiological studies. If risk factor targets are achieved, the probability of dying from the four main NCDs between the ages of 30 years and 70 years will decrease by 22% in men and by 19% in women between 2010 and 2025, compared with a decrease of 11% in men and 10% in women under the so-called business-as-usual trends (ie, projections based on current trends with no additional action). Achieving the risk factor targets will delay or prevent more than 37 million deaths (16 million in people aged 30-69 years and 21 million in people aged 70 years or older) from the main NCDs over these 15 years compared with a situation of rising or stagnating risk factor trends. Most of the benefits of achieving the risk factor targets, including 31 million of the delayed or prevented deaths, will be in low-income and middle-income countries, and will help to reduce the global inequality in premature NCD mortality. A more ambitious target on tobacco use (a 50% reduction) will almost reach the target in men (>24% reduction in the probability of death), and enhance the benefits to a 20% reduction in women. If the agreed risk factor targets are met, premature mortality from the four main NCDs will decrease to levels that are close to the 25×25 target, with most of these benefits seen in low-income and middle-income countries. On the basis of mortality benefits and feasibility, a more ambitious target than currently agreed should be adopted for tobacco use. UK MRC.

Moving From Political Declaration to Action on Reducing the Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases

September 18, 2013, marks 2 years since the monumental meeting of Heads of State at the United Nations in New York to take action against noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), which includes cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes mellitus, and chronic respiratory disease. Recognizing that the rising human and financial costs of NCDs required a profound shift in the way countries viewed development, United Nations member states gathered for the second time in history to address a health concern (the first being the United Nations General Assembly Special Session on HIV/AIDS in 2001). Supporting the United Nations Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of NCDs, countries acknowledged NCDs as a development issue and made a commitment to address this global crisis by taking action on the major modifiable risk factors— including tobacco use, raised blood pressure, poor nutrition, physical inactivity—triggering the new pandemic of NCDs, as well as the social, economic, and political determinants that shape these lifestyle choices.1 Although the declaration was a political commitment, it was an important first step, bringing together health and development leaders from across the globe to ensure that progress would be made to reduce the burden of NCDs. The past 2 years have witnessed concrete commitments, meaning that our work is only just beginning. The World Heart Federation and its members spearheaded global advocacy, with other colleagues in the NCD community, calling on the World Health Organization and member states to commit to tangible and achievable goals.2 In 2012, a global target was adopted to reduce premature NCD mortality 25% by 2025—“25by25.”3 Now in 2013, this target, as well as 8 additional targets addressing modifiable risk factors and committing to the use of essential medicines, technologies, and drug therapies to prevent …