Premature All-cause Mortality Research Articles

Abstract P385: Comparison of Food Insecurity Classifications and Associations With Premature Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Among US Adults

Background: Food security is usually measured with the 10-item US Adult Food Security Survey Module (FSSM). Shorter 6- or 2-item tools may capture similar information, but this has not been validated with hard endpoints. Hypothesis: We hypothesize a 2-item food security instrument reflects the same premature mortality risk as 10- and 6-item instruments. Methods: We included 37,027 participants aged 20-74 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2004-2018, linked to the National Death Index with follow-up through 2019. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality was ascertained by ICD-10 codes for heart disease or stroke. Food security was assessed by the 10-item FSSM, which can derive 6- and 2-item instruments. Multivariable Cox regression was used to assess the associations of food insecurity classifications with risks of premature all-cause and CVD mortality. We calculated C-statistics to estimate model discrimination. We repeated the analyses among 218,136 participants from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) 2011-2018. Results: During a mean 7.8-year follow-up, 2025 premature deaths (512 from CVD) were recorded in NHANES. In age-sex-race/ethnicity-adjusted models (Model 1), food insecurity with any classification was strongly associated with premature all-cause and CVD mortality (Table). After adjusting for confounders (Model 2), associations were attenuated but remained statistically significant. After further including potential mediators (Model 3), associations diminished, suggesting pathways by which food insecurity is associated with mortality. Hazard ratios and C-statistics were nearly identical comparing 10-, 6-, and 2-item instruments. Results were equivalent among NHIS participants during a mean 5.0-year follow-up including 7025 premature deaths (1711 from CVD). Conclusions: Among two independent samples of US adults, a 2-item food security instrument is equivalently associated with premature mortality compared with 10- and 6-item instruments.

Association of cardiovascular risk profile with premature all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in US adults: findings from a national study.

To assess the association between cardiovascular risk factor (CRF) profile and premature all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality among US adults (age < 65). This study used data from the National Health Interview Survey from 2006 to 2014, linked to the National Death Index for non-elderly adults aged < 65 years. A composite CRF score (range = 0-6) was calculated, based on the presence or absence of six established cardiovascular risk factors: hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, smoking, obesity, and insufficient physical activity. CRF profile was defined as "Poor" (≥ 3 risk factors), "Average" (1-2), or "Optimal" (0 risk factors). Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) were reported across CRF profile categories, separately for all-cause and CVD mortality. Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the association between CRF profile and all-cause and CVD mortality. Among 195,901 non-elderly individuals (mean age: 40.4 ± 13.0, 50% females and 70% Non-Hispanic (NH) White adults), 24.8% had optimal, 58.9% average, and 16.2% poor CRF profiles, respectively. Participants with poor CRF profile were more likely to be NH Black, have lower educational attainment and lower income compared to those with optimal CRF profile. All-cause and CVD mortality rates were three to four fold higher in individuals with poor CRF profile, compared to their optimal profile counterparts. Adults with poor CRF profile experienced 3.5-fold (aHR: 3.48 [95% CI: 2.96, 4.10]) and 5-fold (aHR: 4.76 [3.44, 6.60]) higher risk of all-cause and CVD mortality, respectively, compared to those with optimal profile. These results were consistent across age, sex, and race/ethnicity subgroups. In this population-based study, non-elderly adults with poor CRF profile had a three to five-fold higher risk of all-cause and CVD mortality, compared to those with optimal CRF profile. Targeted prevention efforts to achieve optimal cardiovascular risk profile are imperative to reduce the persistent burden of premature all-cause and CVD mortality in the US.

Psychotic Disorders and the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Diseases, and All-Cause Mortality: A Population-Based Matched Cohort Study.

The effects of psychotic disorders on cardiometabolic diseases and premature death need to be determined in Asian populations. In this population-based matched cohort study, the Korean National Health Insurance Service database (2002 to 2018) was used. The risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), acute myocardial infarction (AMI), ischemic stroke, composite of all cardiometabolic diseases, and all-cause death during follow-up was compared between individuals with psychotic disorders treated with antipsychotics (n=48,162) and 1:1 matched controls without psychiatric disorders among adults without cardiometabolic diseases before or within 3 months after baseline. In this cohort, 53,683 composite cases of all cardiometabolic diseases (during median 7.38 years), 899 AMI, and 1,216 ischemic stroke cases (during median 14.14 years), 7,686 T2DM cases (during median 13.26 years), and 7,092 deaths (during median 14.23 years) occurred. The risk of all outcomes was higher in subjects with psychotic disorders than matched controls (adjusted hazard ratios [95% confidence intervals]: 1.522 [1.446 to 1.602] for T2DM; 1.455 [1.251 to 1.693] for AMI; 1.568 [1.373 to 1.790] for ischemic stroke; 1.595 [1.565 to 1.626] for composite of all cardiometabolic diseases; and 2.747 [2.599 to 2.904] for all-cause mortality) during follow-up. Similar patterns of associations were maintained in subgroup analyses but more prominent in younger individuals (P for interaction <0.0001) when categorized as those aged 18-39, 40-64, or ≥65 years. Patients with psychotic disorders treated with antipsychotics were associated with increased risk of premature allcause mortality and cardiometabolic outcomes in an Asian population. This relationship was more pronounced in younger individuals, especially aged 18 to 39 years.

Social determinants of health and premature death among adults in the USA from 1999 to 2018: a national cohort study

Racial and ethnic disparities in mortality persist in the US population. We studied the contribution of social determinants of health (SDoH) to racial and ethnic disparities in premature death. A nationally representative sample of individuals aged 20-74 years who participated in the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) between 1999 and 2018 were included. Self-reported SDoH (employment, family income, food security, education, access to health care, health insurance, housing instability, and being married or living with a partner) were collected in each survey cycle. Participants were categorised into four groups of race and ethnicity: Black, Hispanic, White, and other. Deaths were ascertained from linkage to the National Death Index with follow-up until 2019. Multiple mediation analysis was used to assess simultaneous contributions of each individual SDoH to racial disparities in premature all-cause mortality. We included 48 170 NHANES participants in our analyses, consisting of 10 543 (21·9%) Black participants, 13 211 (27·4%) Hispanic participants, 19 629 (40·7%) White participants, and 4787 (9·9%) participants of other racial and ethnic groups. Mean survey-weighted age was 44·3 years (95% CI 44·0-44·6), 51·3% (50·9-51·8) of participants were women, and 48·7% (48·2-49·1) were men. 3194 deaths before age 75 years were recorded (930 Black participants, 662 Hispanic participants, 1453 White participants, and 149 other participants). Black adults had significantly higher premature mortality than other racial and ethnic groups (p<0·0001): premature death rates per 100 000 person-years were 852 (95% CI 727-1000) for Black adults, 445 (349-574) for Hispanic adults, 546 (474-630) for White adults, and 521 (336-821) for other adults. Unemployment, lower family income, food insecurity, less than high school education, no private health insurance, and not being married nor living with a partner were significantly and independently associated with premature death. Dose-response associations were observed between cumulative number of unfavourable SDoH and premature all-cause mortality: hazard ratios (HRs) were 1·93 (95% CI 1·61-2·31) for those with one unfavourable SDoH, 2·24 (1·87-2·68) for those with two, 3·98 (3·34-4·73) for those with three, 4·78 (3·98-5·74) for those with four, 6·08 (5·06-7·31) for those with five, and 7·82 (6·60-9·26) for those with six or more unfavourable SDoH (p<0·0001 for linear trend). After adjusting for SDoH, HRs for premature all-cause mortality for Black adults compared with White adults decreased from 1·59 (1·44-1·76) to 1·00 (0·91-1·10), suggesting complete mediation of this racial difference in mortality. Unfavourable SDoH are associated with increased rates of premature death and contribute to differences between Black and White racial groups in premature all-cause mortality in the US population. Innovative public health policies and interventions targeting SDoH are needed to reduce premature deaths and health disparities in this population. US National Institutes of Health.

Social determinants of racial health inequities

Social determinants of racial health inequities

Is there a peer status gradient in mortality? Findings from a Swedish cohort born in 1953 and followed to age 67.

Similar to having a less advantaged socioeconomic position, children in lower peer status positions typically experience a situation characterized by less power, influence and command over resources, followed by worse health outcomes. The aim of this study was to examine whether peer status position is further associated with increased risks for premature all-cause mortality. Data were drawn from a 1953 cohort born in Stockholm, Sweden. Peer status positions were established through survey data on peer nominations within the school class at age 13, whereas national registers were used to identify all-cause mortality across ages 14-67. Differences in hazard rates and median survival time, according to peer status position, were estimated with Cox regression and Laplace regression, respectively. Although differences in hazard rates were not large, they were consistent and clear, also after taking childhood socioeconomic status into account. Regarding median survival time, the number of years lost increased gradually as peer status decreased, with a difference of almost 6 years when comparing individuals in the lowest and highest positions. Children's positions in the peer status hierarchy play a role for their chances of health and survival, pointing to the relevance of addressing opportunities for positive peer interaction and mitigating any adverse consequences that may stem from negative experiences within the peer context.

Obesity at age 20 and weight gain during adulthood increase risk of total and premature all-cause mortality: findings from women attending breast screening in Manchester

BackgroundObesity in early adulthood is associated with lower breast cancer rates in later life. This could be interpreted as a positive reinforcement of excess weight amongst younger women however, the wider implications of higher weights are less well known. This study examined the association between both obesity in early adulthood and body mass index (BMI) change through adulthood, and all-cause mortality.MethodsThe Predicting Risk of Cancer At Screening (PROCAS) study recruited 57,902 women aged 46–73 years (median age 57.2, IQR 51.8–63.7 years) from the Greater Manchester National Health Service breast screening programme in North West England between 2009 and 2015. It was used to assess associations between BMI at 20 years and cohort entry with all-cause mortality ascertained via deaths recorded on the National Breast Screening System to June 2020. Hazard ratios were estimated using proportional hazards (Cox) regression adjusted for factors at entry to the cohort: age, deprivation, bilateral oophorectomy, hormone-replacement therapy, menopausal status, ethnicity, alcohol intake, physical activity, and BMI.ResultsThe prevalence of overweight (25–30 kg/m2) and obesity (> 30 kg/m2) were 10.4% and 2.5% respectively at 20 years, increasing to 35.2% and 25.9% respectively at cohort entry. After a mean 8.7 years follow-up we observed that overweight (HR = 1.27, 95%CI = 1.10–1.47) and obesity (HR = 2.11, 95%CI = 1.67–2.66) at 20 years had a higher mortality rate compared with healthy weight. Women who were underweight/healthy weight at 20 years and gained weight to obesity at entry had a slightly increased mortality rate compared with women who were underweight/healthy weight at both time points (HR 1.16, 95%CI = 1.02–1.32). Women with overweight (HR = 1.36, 95%CI = 1.06–1.75) or obesity (HR = 1.90, 95%CI = 1.45–2.48) at both 20 years and entry had a higher mortality rate than women who were underweight/healthy weight at both points.ConclusionsWomen who self-reported overweight and obesity at 20 years had a shorter life expectancy in this cohort of women attending breast cancer screening. Weight gain from 20 years was common in this group. Girls and women should be supported to maintain a healthy weight throughout the lifespan to help increase life expectancy.Trial registration number NCT04359420, retrospectively registered 24/04/2020.

ORALLY ACTIVE, CLINICALLY TRANSLATABLE SENOLYTICS RESTORE Α-KLOTHO IN MICE AND HUMANS

Abstract Decreased α-Klotho, a geroprotective factor, and increased senescent cell burden are both associated with early onset of physical disability, cognitive impairment, and premature all-cause mortality. It has been demonstrated that eliminating senescent cells can enhance physical function, cognition, and survival in mice, as does overexpressing α-Klotho. Mice with low α-Klotho exhibit accelerated senescent cell accumulation, recombinant α-Klotho decreases senescent cell burden and restores lifespan in these mice, and senescent epidermal cells are reduced in mice overexpressing α-Klotho. Here, we tested the hypothesis that senescent cells cause decreased α-Klotho and hence that reducing senescent cells can increase α-Klotho. Senescent cell conditioned medium (CM) reduced α-Klotho in cultured non-senescent human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs), renal tubular endothelial cells, and astrocytes. These effects of senescent CM were partially attenuated by neutralizing antibodies against the senescence-associated secretory phenotype (SASP) factors, activin A and IL-1α. Transplanting senescent cells into younger mice caused decreased urine and brain α-Klotho. Genetically reducing highly p16Ink4a-expressing cells in old INK-ATTAC mice or administering the senolytics, Dasatinib plus Quercetin (D+Q) or Fisetin (F), to young mice transplanted with senescent cells, young diet-induced obese (DIO) mice, or naturally-aged mice increased urine, kidney, and/or brain α-Klotho. Treating patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), a cellular senescence-related disease, with D+Q led to increased urinary α-Klotho. Thus, targeting senescent cells causes increases in the geroprotective factor α-Klotho, potentially amplifying the beneficial effects of senolytic drugs.

Impact of Brazil's Bolsa Família Programme on cardiovascular and all-cause mortality: a natural experiment study using the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has a disproportionate effect on mortality among the poorest people. We assessed the impact on CVD and all-cause mortality of the world's largest conditional cash transfer, Brazil's Bolsa Família Programme (BFP). We linked administrative data from the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort with BFP receipt and national mortality data. We followed individuals who applied for BFP between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2015, until 31 December 2015. We used marginal structural models to estimate the effect of BFP on all-age and premature (30-69 years) CVD and all-cause mortality. We conducted stratified analyses by levels of material deprivation and access to healthcare. We checked the robustness of our findings by restricting the analysis to municipalities with better mortality data and by using alternative statistical methods. We studied 17 981 582 individuals, of whom 4 855 324 were aged 30-69 years. Three-quarters (76.2%) received BFP, with a mean follow-up post-award of 2.6 years. We detected 106 807 deaths by all causes, of which 60 893 were premature; and 23 389 CVD deaths, of which 15 292 were premature. BFP was associated with reductions in premature all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.94-0.98], premature CVD (HR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.92-1.00) and all-age CVD (HR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.93-1.00) but not all-age all-cause mortality (HR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.98-1.02). In stratified and robustness analyses, BFP was consistently associated with mortality reductions for individuals living in the two most deprived quintiles. BFP appears to have a small to null effect on premature CVD and all-cause mortality in the short term; the long-term impact remains unknown.

Newer Diabetes Management Options and Physical Fitness to Promote Cardiovascular Benefits

A plethora of diabetes studies and established clinical guidelines show the strong salutary benefit of aerobic, resistance, and/or combination exercise for improved glycemic and cardiovascular outcomes. Promotion of physical fitness is a cornerstone approach to improved diabetes management especially since subjects with diabetes have reduced baseline aerobic exercise capacity (i.e., reduced cardiorespiratory fitness) with associated increased risk for premature all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Since medications are often used in conjunction with fitness promotion this can result in complex interaction between management modalities. More recently, newer options such as glucose transporter-2 inhibitors and incretin agonists have shown to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes in cardiovascular outcomes trials. Indeed, both classes of agents have experimentally the potential to synergize with exercise training but clinical data vis-à-vis cardiorespiratory fitness is still preliminary. Review of the interaction of exercise and metformin shows no improvement in cardiorespiratory fitness. The use of glucose transporter-2 inhibitors may improve fitness performance in those with diabetes and heart failure. Although incretin agonists have physiological effects on the vasculature and heart, they lack similar clinical supportive data.

Association between serum carotenoids and premature mortality in a population-based case-control study.

ABSTRACTCarotenoids are abundant pigments mainly contained in vegetables and fruits, and show antioxidant properties by quenching free radicals in human body. Few studies have investigated associations between serum carotenoid levels and premature mortality. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between serum carotenoid level and premature mortality in a Japanese population. This study included 446 Japanese adults (174 men, aged of 40–64) recruited as participants in the Japan Collaborative Cohort (JACC) Study. Serum carotenoid level was measured by high-performance liquid chromatography. Premature mortality was defined as death before 65 years old during the follow-up period. Premature mortality was ascertained in 60 men (34.5%) and 65 women (23.9%). In men, compared to the 1st tertile of serum β-cryptoxanthin and provitamin A, those who were in the 3rd tertile had lower risks of premature all-cause mortality (OR, 95% CI: 0.19, 0.07–0.47 for β-cryptoxanthin, and 0.24, 0.09–0.61 for provitamin A). In women, compared to the 1st tertile of serum β-cryptoxanthin, those who were in the 3rd tertile had higher risks of premature all-cause mortality (OR, 95% CI: 1.94, 1.00–4.03). These significant associations were observed in analyses for premature cancer mortality. We found significant associations between higher levels of serum β-cryptoxanthin and provitamin A and lower risks of premature mortality among Japanese men, while a different directional association was found in women. Although these findings suggest roles of serum carotenoids on premature mortality, further studies are needed to validate this association in other populations.

Инсульт и факторы риска инсульта в общем бремени болезней

Stroke is the most common cause of disability and death in the world. Cardiovascular disease rates increase with age (10.9 % for people aged 20–30 years and 85.3 % for people older than 80 years). Coronary heart diseases is the leading cause of deaths attributable to cardiovascular diseases in the United States, followed by stroke, high BP, HF, diseases of the arteries, and other cardiovascular diseases. The report on the global burden of neurological disorders has shown that hemorrhagic stroke accounted for 35.7 % in it, and ischemic stroke, 22.4 %. Seven indicators are important and strategic to prevent cardiovascular disorders; they include healthy diet, sufficient physical activity, smokingstatius, BMI, cholesterol level, blood pressure, and glucose in blood on a fasting stomach. These indicators are associated with healthy behavior (diet quality, PA, smoking, BMI) which are as important as health factors (blood cholesterol, BP, blood glucose). There is a strong protective association between ideal cardiovascular health indicators and many clinical and preclinical conditions including premature all-cause mortality, stroke, CVD mortality, ischemic heart disease mortality, HF, deep venous thromboembolism, and pulmonary embolism. Atrial fibrillation, metabolic syndrome, renal failure, and sleep apnea are important risk factors which are modifiable and treatable. Air pollution has been reported as an increasing and very important risk factor for stroke. COVID-19 has been reported as another new stroke risk factor during the pandemic. Future targets must include each cardiovascular health indicator to decrease stroke risk burden and stroke risk.

Stroke and stroke risk factors as disease burden

Stroke is the most common cause of disability and death in the world. Cardiovascular disease rates increase with age (10.9 % for people aged 20–30 years and 85.3 % for people older than 80 years). Coronary heart diseases is the leading cause of deaths attributable to cardiovascular diseases in the United States, followed by stroke, high BP, HF, diseases of the arteries, and other cardiovascular diseases. The report on the global burden of neurological disorders has shown that hemorrhagic stroke accounted for 35.7 % in it, and ischemic stroke, 22.4 %. Seven indicators are important and strategic to prevent cardiovascular disorders; they include healthy diet, sufficient physical activity, smokingstatius, BMI, cholesterol level, blood pressure, and glucose in blood on a fasting stomach. These indicators are associated with healthy behavior (diet quality, PA, smoking, BMI) which are as important as health factors (blood cholesterol, BP, blood glucose). There is a strong protective association between ideal cardiovascular health indicators and many clinical and preclinical conditions including premature all-cause mortality, stroke, CVD mortality, ischemic heart disease mortality, HF, deep venous thromboembolism, and pulmonary embolism. Atrial fibrillation, metabolic syndrome, renal failure, and sleep apnea are important risk factors which are modifiable and treatable. Air pollution has been reported as an increasing and very important risk factor for stroke. COVID-19 has been reported as another new stroke risk factor during the pandemic. Future targets must include each cardiovascular health indicator to decrease stroke risk burden and stroke risk.

Steps per Day and All-Cause Mortality in Middle-aged Adults in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study

Steps per day is a meaningful metric for physical activity promotion in clinical and population settings. To guide promotion strategies of step goals, it is important to understand the association of steps with clinical end points, including mortality. To estimate the association of steps per day with premature (age 41-65 years) all-cause mortality among Black and White men and women. This prospective cohort study was part of the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study. Participants were aged 38 to 50 years and wore an accelerometer from 2005 to 2006. Participants were followed for a mean (SD) of 10.8 (0.9) years. Data were analyzed in 2020 and 2021. Daily steps volume, classified as low (<7000 steps/d), moderate (7000-9999 steps/d), and high (≥10 000 steps/d) and stepping intensity, classified as peak 30-minute stepping rate and time spent at 100 steps/min or more. All-cause mortality. A total of 2110 participants from the CARDIA study were included, with a mean (SD) age of 45.2 (3.6) years, 1205 (57.1%) women, 888 (42.1%) Black participants, and a median (interquartile range [IQR]) of 9146 (7307-11 162) steps/d. During 22 845 person years of follow-up, 72 participants (3.4%) died. Using multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards models, compared with participants in the low step group, there was significantly lower risk of mortality in the moderate (hazard ratio [HR], 0.28 [95% CI, 0.15-0.54]; risk difference [RD], 53 [95% CI, 27-78] events per 1000 people) and high (HR, 0.45 [95% CI, 0.25-0.81]; RD, 41 [95% CI, 15-68] events per 1000 people) step groups. Compared with the low step group, moderate/high step rate was associated with reduced risk of mortality in Black participants (HR, 0.30 [95% CI, 0.14-0.63]) and in White participants (HR, 0.37 [95% CI, 0.17-0.81]). Similarly, compared with the low step group, moderate/high step rate was associated with reduce risk of mortality in women (HR, 0.28 [95% CI, 0.12-0.63]) and men (HR, 0.42 [95% CI, 0.20-0.88]). There was no significant association between peak 30-minute intensity (lowest vs highest tertile: HR, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.54-1.77]) or time at 100 steps/min or more (lowest vs highest tertile: HR, 1.38 [95% CI, 0.73-2.61]) with risk of mortality. This cohort study found that among Black and White men and women in middle adulthood, participants who took approximately 7000 steps/d or more experienced lower mortality rates compared with participants taking fewer than 7000 steps/d. There was no association of step intensity with mortality.

Childhood neurodevelopmental markers and risk of premature mortality: Follow-up to age 60-65 years in the Aberdeen Children of the 1950s study.

BackgroundIndividual neurodevelopmental disorders are associated with premature mortality. Little is known about the association between multiple neurodevelopmental markers and premature mortality at a population level. The ESSENCE (Early Symptomatic Syndromes Eliciting Neurodevelopmental Clinical Examinations) approach considers multiple neurodevelopmental parameters, assessing several markers in parallel that cluster, rather than considering individual diagnostic categories in isolation.ObjectivesTo determine whether childhood neurodevelopmental markers, including reduced intellectual functioning, are associated with all-cause premature mortality.Methods and proceduresIn a general population cohort study (n = 12,150) with longitudinal follow up from childhood to middle age, Cox proportional hazard models were used to study the associations between childhood neurodevelopmental markers (Rutter B scale and IQ) and premature all-cause mortality.Outcomes and resultsThe cognitive measures and 21 of the 26 Rutter B items were significantly associated with premature mortality in bivariate analyses with hazard ratios from 1.24 (95% CI 1.05–1.47) to 2.25 (95% CI 1.78–2.90). In the final adjusted model, neurodevelopmental markers suggestive of several domains including hyperactivity, conduct problems and intellectual impairment were positively associated with premature mortality and improved prediction of premature mortality.ConclusionsA wide range of neurodevelopmental markers, including childhood IQ, were found to predict premature mortality in a large general population cohort with longitudinal follow up to 60–65 years of age.ImplicationsThese findings highlight the importance of a holistic assessment of children with neurodevelopmental markers that addresses a range of neurodevelopmental conditions. Our findings could open the door to a shift in child public mental health focus, where multiple and/or cumulative markers of neurodevelopmental conditions alert clinicians to the need for early intervention. This could lead to a reduction in the risk of broad health outcomes at a population level.

Local government funding and life expectancy in England: a longitudinal ecological study

SummaryBackgroundSince 2010, large reductions in funding for local government services have been introduced in England. These reductions in funding have potentially led to reduced provision of health-promoting public services. We aimed to investigate whether areas that showed a greater decline in funding also had more adverse trends in life expectancy and premature mortality.MethodsIn this longitudinal ecological study, we linked annual data from the Ministry of Housing, Communities, and Local Government on local government revenue expenditure and financing to 147 upper-tier local authorities in England between 2013 and 2017 with data from Public Health England, on male and female life expectancy at birth, male and female life expectancy at age 65 years, and premature (younger than 75 years) all-cause mortality rate for male and female individuals. Local authorities were excluded if their populations were too small or if changes in boundaries meant consistent data were not available. Using multivariable fixed-effects panel regression models, and controlling for local socioeconomic conditions, we estimated whether changes in local funding from 2013 were associated with changes in life expectancy and premature mortality. We included a set of alternative model specifications to test the robustness of our findings.FindingsBetween 2013 and 2017, mean per-capita central funding to local governments decreased by 33% or £168 per person (range –£385 to £1). Each £100 reduction in annual per person funding was associated over the study period 2013–17 with an average decrease in life expectancy at birth of 1·3 months (95% CI 0·7–1·9) for male individuals and 1·2 months (0·7–1·7) for female individuals; for life expectancy at age 65 years, the results show a decrease of 0·8 months (0·3–1·3) for male individuals and 1·1 months (0·7–1·5) for female individuals. Funding reductions were greater in more deprived areas and these areas had the worst changes in life expectancy. We estimated that cuts in funding were associated with an increase in the gap in life expectancy between the most and least deprived quintiles by 3% for men and 4% for women. Overall reductions in funding during this period were associated with an additional 9600 deaths in people younger than 75 years in England (3800–15 400), an increase of 1·25%.InterpretationOur findings indicate that cuts in funding for local government might in part explain adverse trends in life expectancy. Given that more deprived areas showed greater reductions in funding, our analysis suggests that inequalities have widened. Since the pandemic, strategies to address these adverse trends in life expectancy and reduce health inequalities could prioritise reinvestment in funding for local government services, particularly within the most deprived areas of England.FundingNational Institute for Health Research (NIHR) School for Public Health Research, NIHR Applied Research Collaboration North East and North Cumbria, NIHR Applied Research Collaboration North West Coast and Medical Research Council.

Prediction of premature all-cause mortality in patients receiving peritoneal dialysis using modified artificial neural networks.

Premature all-cause mortality is high in patients receiving peritoneal dialysis (PD). The accurate and early prediction of mortality is critical and difficult. Three prediction models, the logistic regression (LR) model, artificial neural network (ANN) classic model and a new structured ANN model (ANN mixed model), were constructed and evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The permutation feature importance was used to interpret the important features in the ANN models. Eight hundred fifty-nine patients were enrolled in the study. The LR model performed slightly better than the other two ANN models on the test dataset; however, in the total dataset, the ANN models fit much better. The ANN mixed model showed the best prediction performance, with area under the ROC curves (AUROCs) of 0.8 and 0.79 for the 6-month and 12-month datasets. Our study showed that age, diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) levels were common risk factors for premature mortality in patients receiving PD. Our ANN mixed model had incomparable advantages in fitting the overall data characteristics, and age is a steady risk factor for premature mortality in patients undergoing PD. Otherwise, DBP and LDL-c levels should receive more attention for all-cause mortality during follow-up.

The changing landscape of cardiac rehabilitation; from early mobilisation and reduced mortality to chronic multi-morbidity management

Aim This paper aims to demonstrate how the rationale and delivery of cardiac rehabilitation (CR), in those countries with long term established standards of practice, has changed over the past eight decades. Methods A narrative report based on the evolution of key published guidelines, systematic reviews and medical policies since the 1940s. Results Case reports of the value of exercise in cardiac disease can be dated back to 1772. Formative groundwork for exercise-based CR was published between 1940 and 1970. However, it was not until the late 1980s that a large enough data set of controlled trials was available to show significant reductions in premature all-cause and cardiac mortality. Since the mid 1990s, cardiac mortality has been greatly reduced due to enhanced public health, emergency care and more sensitive diagnostic techniques and aggressive treatments. As a result, there appears to be an associated reduced potency of CR to affect mortality. New rationales for why, how and where CR is delivered have emerged including: adapting to a longer surviving ageing multi-morbid population, where healthcare cost savings and quality of life have become increasingly important. Conclusions In light of these results, an emerging focus for CR, and in some cases “pre-habilitation”, is that of a chronic disability management programme increasingly delivered in community and home settings. Within this delivery model, the use of remote personalised technologies is now emerging, especially with new needs accelerated by the pandemic of COVID-19. IMPLICATIONS FOR REHABILITATION With continued advances in medical science and better long term survival, the nature of cardiac rehabilitation has evolved over the past eight decades. It was originally an exercise-focused intervention on short term recovery and reducing cardiac and all-cause mortality, to now being one part of a multi-factor lifestyle, behavioural, and medical chronic disease management programme. Throughout history, the important influence of psycho-social well-being and human behaviour has, however, always been of key importance to patients. The location of rehabilitation can now be suited to patient need, both medically and socially, where the same components can be delivered in either a traditional outpatient clinic, community settings, at home and more recently all of these being supported or augmented with the advent of mobile technology.

Refugee status is associated with double the odds of psychological distress in mid-to-late life: Findings from the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging.

Psychological distress is associated with a range of negative outcomes including lower quality of life and an increased risk of premature all-cause mortality. The prevalence of, and factors associated with, psychological distress among middle-aged and older Canadians are understudied. Using the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging (CLSA) baseline data, this study examined factors associated with psychological distress among adults between 45 and 85 years, including refugee status and a wide range of sociodemographic, health-related and social support characteristics. Psychological distress was measured by Kessler's Psychological Distress Scale-K10 scores. Bivariate and multivariable binary logistic regression analyses were conducted. The prevalence of psychological distress was significantly higher among the 244 refugees (23.8%), compared to 23,149 Canadian-born Canadians (12.8%) and 4,765 non-refugee immigrants (12.6%), despite the fact that the average time the refugees had lived in Canada was more than four decades. The results of the binary logistic regression analysis indicated refugees had twice the age-sex adjusted odds of psychological distress (OR = 2.31, 95% CI: 1.74, 3.07). Even after further adjustment for 16 potential risk factors, a significant relationship remained between refugee status and psychological distress (OR = 1.56; 95% CI = 1.12, 2.17). Other significant factors associated with psychological distress included younger age, female gender, visible minority status, lower household income, not having an undergraduate degree, multimorbidities, chronic pain, and lack of social support. Policies and interventions addressing psychological distress among Canadians in mid- to later life should target refugees and other vulnerable groups.

The Brazilian conditional cash transfer program and cardiovascular mortality: a data linkage study

Abstract Background Conditional cash transfer programmes (CCTs) make monetary transfers to poor families conditional on health check-ups and/or education attendance. CCTs have been key in reducing poverty and improving child and maternal health in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) but their impact on cardiovascular mortality have not been studied. We aimed to evaluate the effect of the CCT Bolsa Familia Program (BFP) on premature all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in Brazil. Methods The 100 Million Brazilian Cohort combined information about individuals applying for social programmes, the BFP and mortality data. We analysed ∼8 million individuals aged 30-69 who applied from 2011 to 2015. We calculated inverse probability weights (IPW) for the probability to receive BFP based on baseline observed characteristics (age, education, race, geographical location, household characteristics and year of application). Individuals were followed until they reached 70 years of age, died by any cause, or until 31st Dec 2015. We used Poisson regression (with person-years as the offset) and IPWs to compare BFP recipients to a comparable control population. Females and males were analysed separately. Results By following individuals for up to 4 years, 43,562 deaths by all-causes occurred among 4,197,658 females and 69,209 deaths among 3,672,393 males. Female BFP beneficiaries had approximately 60% lower all-cause mortality (IRR=0.40;95%CI=0.37-0.42) and CVD mortality (IRR=0.42;95%CI=0.37-0.47) than non-beneficiaries. Males who are BFP beneficiaries had ∼50% lower all-cause (IRR=0.53;95%CI=0.52-0.55) and 60% lower cardiovascular mortality (IRR=0.40;95%CI=0.38-0.42) than non-beneficiaries. Conclusions BFP, the world's largest CCT, may substantially decrease premature mortality. CCTs might have important implications for the growing burden of non-communicable diseases, with impacts potentially due to improved nutrition, socioeconomic conditions and improved primary care access. Key messages The Brazilian CCT, a widely recognized programme for poverty alleviation, have showed to be associated with lower overall and cardiovascular premature mortality in both women and men. Other countries, particularly LMICs, may learn from the health benefits of CCTs and should consider its potential large effect on mortality when planning austerity policies.