Pre-industrial CO2 Concentration Research Articles

On the emission-path dependency of the efficiency of ocean alkalinity enhancement

Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) deliberately modifies the chemistry of the surface ocean to enhance the uptake of atmospheric CO2. The chemical efficiency of OAE (the amount of CO2 sequestered per unit of alkalinity added) depends, among other factors, on the background state of the surface ocean, which will significantly change until the end of this century and beyond. Here, we investigate the consequences of such changes for the long-term efficiency of OAE. We show, using idealized and scenario simulations with an Earth system model, that under doubling (quadrupling) of pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated mean efficiency of OAE increases by about 18% (29%) from 0.76 to 0.90 (0.98). We find that only half of this effect can be explained by changes in the sensitivity of CO2 sequestration to alkalinity addition itself. The remainder is due to the larger portion of anthropogenic emissions taken up by a high-alkalinity ocean. Importantly, both effects are reversed if atmospheric CO2 concentrations were to decline due to large-scale deployment of land-based (or alternative ocean-based) carbon dioxide removal (CDR) methods. By considering an overshoot pathway that relies on large amounts of land-based CDR, we demonstrate that OAE efficiency indeed shows a strong decline after atmospheric CO2 concentrations have peaked. Our results suggest that the assumption of a constant, present-day chemical efficiency of OAE in integrated assessment modeling and carbon credit assignments could lead to economically inefficient OAE implementation pathways.

Benthic Foraminiferal and Sedimentologic Changes in the Pliocene Yorktown Formation, Virginia, USA

ABSTRACTThe Pliocene Yorktown Formation consists of four lithologic units that record three marine transgressive sequences along the U.S. mid-Atlantic margin. These units were deposited during a time when average sea-level and mean global temperatures were ∼25 m and ∼3°C higher than the pre-industrial, respectively, and global atmospheric CO2 concentrations were similar to present. Forty-five samples were collected along the James River near Rushmere, Virginia, and Spring Grove, Virginia, and were analyzed for benthic foraminifera community and sedimentological changes between each member of the formation. These data are useful for developing boundary conditions for shallow, near-shore environments for paleoclimate modeling. Foraminiferal analysis distinguishes six biofacies across the entire formation. The most notable change in grain-size occurs at the conformable boundary between the Rushmere and Morgarts Beach members, where the average percentage of sand decreases from ∼60% in the Rushmere Member to <40% in the Morgarts Beach Member.

The role of an interactive Greenland ice sheet in the coupled climate-ice sheet model EC-Earth-PISM

Ice sheet processes are often simplified in global climate models as changes in ice sheets have been assumed to occur over long time scales compared to ocean and atmospheric changes. However, numerous observations show an increasing rate of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet and call for comprehensive process-based models to explore its role in climate change. Here, we present a new model system, EC-Earth-PISM, that includes an interactive Greenland Ice Sheet. The model is based on the EC-Earth v2.3 global climate model in which ice sheet surface processes are introduced. This model interacts with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) without anomaly or flux corrections. Under pre-industrial climate conditions, the modeled climate and ice sheet are stable while keeping a realistic interannual variability. In model simulations forced into a warmer climate of four times the pre-industrial CO2 concentration, the total surface mass balance decreases and the ice sheet loses mass at a rate of about 500 Gt/year. In the climate warming experiments, the resulting freshwater flux from the Greenland Ice Sheet increases 55% more in the experiments with the interactive ice sheet and the climate response is significantly different: the Arctic near-surface air temperature is lower, substantially more winter sea ice covers the northern hemisphere, and the ocean circulation is weaker. Our results indicate that the melt-albedo feedback plays a key role for the response of the ice sheet and its influence on the changing climate in the Arctic. This emphasizes the importance of including interactive ice sheets in climate change projections.

Evaluation of Catastrophic Global Warming due to Coal Combustion, Paradigm of South Asia

Coal is a carbon containing non-renewable fossil fuel and one of the major contributors of climate change and global warming. We used TANSO FTS instrument in order to obtain the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide through datasets obtained from GOSAT satellite. GIOVANNI was also used to obtain atmospheric concentration of various gases. Burning of coal causes emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) and black carbon (BC) in atmosphere which are responsible for nearly 0.3°C of 1°C rise in temperature. The annual average value of carbon emission for the year 2010 and 2019 is 388.4 ppm and 409 ppm respectively. Since the pre-industrial times CO2 concentrations have increased up to100 PPM (36%) in the last two and a half centuries (250 years).In South Asia Dhaka has the worst quality of air as CO2 concentration (6.7%) is higher than the country’s GDP (5.25%) and energy consumption (4.77%). While an increasing trend GHG has been observed in Lahore up to 5.5 %. This study concludes that the high concentration of carbon dioxide in atmosphere is responsible for average rise of 1.2 °C temperature annually. This temperature rise can lead to adverse climatic conditions i.e., melting of glaciers which will consequently rise the sea level various landmasses may disappear by 2050.

Higher Atmospheric CO2 Levels Favor C3 Plants Over C4 Plants in Utilizing Ammonium as a Nitrogen Source.

Photosynthesis of wheat and maize declined when grown with NH4+ as a nitrogen (N) source at ambient CO2 concentration compared to those grown with a mixture of NO3– and NH4+, or NO3– as the sole N source. Interestingly, these N nutritional physiological responses changed when the atmospheric CO2 concentration increases. We studied the photosynthetic responses of wheat and maize growing with various N forms at three levels of growth CO2 levels. Hydroponic experiments were carried out using a C3 plant (wheat, Triticum aestivum L. cv. Chuanmai 58) and a C4 plant (maize, Zea mays L. cv. Zhongdan 808) given three types of N nutrition: sole NO3– (NN), sole NH4+ (AN) and a mixture of both NO3– and NH4+ (Mix-N). The test plants were grown using custom-built chambers where a continuous and desired atmospheric CO2 (Ca) concentration could be maintained: 280 μmol mol–1 (representing the pre-Industrial Revolution CO2 concentration of the 18th century), 400 μmol mol–1 (present level) and 550 μmol mol–1 (representing the anticipated futuristic concentration in 2050). Under AN, the decrease in net photosynthetic rate (Pn) was attributed to a reduction in the maximum RuBP-regeneration rate, which then caused reductions in the maximum Rubisco-carboxylation rates for both species. Decreases in electron transport rate, reduction of electron flux to the photosynthetic carbon [Je(PCR)] and electron flux for photorespiratory carbon oxidation [Je(PCO)] were also observed under AN for both species. However, the intercellular (Ci) and chloroplast (Cc) CO2 concentration increased with increasing atmospheric CO2 in C3 wheat but not in C4 maize, leading to a higher Je(PCR)/ Je(PCO) ratio. Interestingly, the reduction of Pn under AN was relieved in wheat through higher CO2 levels, but that was not the case in maize. In conclusion, elevating atmospheric CO2 concentration increased Ci and Cc in wheat, but not in maize, with enhanced electron fluxes towards photosynthesis, rather than photorespiration, thereby relieving the inhibition of photosynthesis under AN. Our results contributed to a better understanding of NH4+ involvement in N nutrition of crops growing under different levels of CO2.

Hysteresis of the Earth system under positive and negative CO2 emissions

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere is part of all emission scenarios of the IPCC that limit global warming to below 1.5 °C. Here, we investigate hysteresis characteristics in 4× pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 concentration scenarios with exponentially increasing and decreasing CO2 using the Bern3D-LPX Earth system model of intermediate complexity. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and the rate of CDR are systematically varied. Hysteresis is quantified as the difference in a variable between the up and down pathway at identical cumulative carbon emissions. Typically, hysteresis increases non-linearly with increasing ECS, while its dependency on the CDR rate varies across variables. Large hysteresis is found for global surface air temperature (SAT), upper ocean heat content, ocean deoxygenation, and acidification. We find distinct spatial patterns of hysteresis: SAT exhibits strong polar amplification, hysteresis in O2 is both positive and negative depending on the interplay between changes in remineralization of organic matter and ventilation. Due to hysteresis, sustained negative emissions are required to return to and keep a CO2 and warming target, particularly for high climate sensitivities and the large overshoot scenario considered here. Our results suggest, that not emitting carbon in the first place is preferable over carbon dioxide removal, even if technologies would exist to efficiently remove CO2 from the atmosphere and store it away safely.

Contrasting effects of Miocene and Anthropocene levels of atmospheric CO2 on silicon accumulation in a model grass.

Grasses are hyper-accumulators of silicon (Si), which they acquire from the soil and deposit in tissues to resist environmental stresses. Given the high metabolic costs of herbivore defensive chemicals and structural constituents (e.g. cellulose), grasses may substitute Si for these components when carbon is limited. Indeed, high Si uptake grasses evolved in the Miocene when atmospheric CO2 concentration was much lower than present levels. It is, however, unknown how pre-industrial CO2 concentrations affect Si accumulation in grasses. Using Brachypodium distachyon, we hydroponically manipulated Si-supply (0.0, 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2 mM) and grew plants under Miocene (200 ppm) and Anthropocene levels of CO2 comprising ambient (410 ppm) and elevated (640 ppm) CO2 concentrations. We showed that regardless of Si treatments, the Miocene CO2 levels increased foliar Si concentrations by 47% and 56% relative to plants grown under ambient and elevated CO2, respectively. This is owing to higher accumulation overall, but also the reallocation of Si from the roots into the shoots. Our results suggest that grasses may accumulate high Si concentrations in foliage when carbon is less available (i.e. pre-industrial CO2 levels) but this is likely to decline under future climate change scenarios, potentially leaving grasses more susceptible to environmental stresses.

Plant Physiology Increases the Magnitude and Spread of the Transient Climate Response to CO2 in CMIP6 Earth System Models

AbstractIncreasing concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere influence climate both through CO2’s role as a greenhouse gas and through its impact on plants. Plants respond to atmospheric CO2 concentrations in several ways that can alter surface energy and water fluxes and thus surface climate, including changes in stomatal conductance, water use, and canopy leaf area. These plant physiological responses are already embedded in most Earth system models, and a robust literature demonstrates that they can affect global-scale temperature. However, the physiological contribution to transient warming has yet to be assessed systematically in Earth system models. Here this gap is addressed using carbon cycle simulations from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) to isolate the radiative and physiological contributions to the transient climate response (TCR), which is defined as the change in globally averaged near-surface air temperature during the 20-yr window centered on the time of CO2 doubling relative to preindustrial CO2 concentrations. In CMIP6 models, the physiological effect contributes 0.12°C (σ: 0.09°C; range: 0.02°–0.29°C) of warming to the TCR, corresponding to 6.1% of the full TCR (σ: 3.8%; range: 1.4%–13.9%). Moreover, variation in the physiological contribution to the TCR across models contributes disproportionately more to the intermodel spread of TCR estimates than it does to the mean. The largest contribution of plant physiology to CO2-forced warming—and the intermodel spread in warming—occurs over land, especially in forested regions.

Investigating the applicability of emergent constraints

Abstract. Recent research on emergent constraints (ECs) has delivered promising results in narrowing down uncertainty in climate predictions. The method utilizes a measurable variable (predictor) from the recent historical past to obtain a constrained estimate of change in an entity of interest (predictand) at a potential future CO2 concentration (forcing) from multi-model projections. This procedure first critically depends on an accurate estimation of the predictor from observations and models and second on a robust relationship between inter-model variations in the predictor–predictand space. Here, we investigate issues related to these two themes in a carbon cycle case study using observed vegetation greening sensitivity to CO2 forcing as a predictor of change in photosynthesis (gross primary productivity, GPP) for a doubling of preindustrial CO2 concentration. Greening sensitivity is defined as changes in the annual maximum of green leaf area index (LAImax) per unit CO2 forcing realized through its radiative and fertilization effects. We first address the question of how to realistically characterize the predictor of a large area (e.g., greening sensitivity in the northern high-latitude region) from pixel-level data. This requires an investigation into uncertainties in the observational data source and an evaluation of the spatial and temporal variability in the predictor in both the data and model simulations. Second, the predictor–predictand relationship across the model ensemble depends on a strong coupling between the two variables, i.e., simultaneous changes in GPP and LAImax. This coupling depends in a complex manner on the magnitude (level), time rate of application (scenarios), and effects (radiative and/or fertilization) of CO2 forcing. We investigate how each one of these three aspects of forcing can affect the EC estimate of the predictand (ΔGPP). Our results show that uncertainties in the EC method primarily originate from a lack of predictor comparability between observations and models, the observational data source, and temporal variability of the predictor. The disagreement between models on the mechanistic behavior of the system under intensifying forcing limits the EC applicability. The discussed limitations and sources of uncertainty in the EC method go beyond carbon cycle research and are generally applicable in Earth system sciences.

Earth system models underestimate carbon fixation by plants in the high latitudes

Most Earth system models agree that land will continue to store carbon due to the physiological effects of rising CO2 concentration and climatic changes favoring plant growth in temperature-limited regions. But they largely disagree on the amount of carbon uptake. The historical CO2 increase has resulted in enhanced photosynthetic carbon fixation (Gross Primary Production, GPP), as can be evidenced from atmospheric CO2 concentration and satellite leaf area index measurements. Here, we use leaf area sensitivity to ambient CO2 from the past 36 years of satellite measurements to obtain an Emergent Constraint (EC) estimate of GPP enhancement in the northern high latitudes at two-times the pre-industrial CO2 concentration (3.4 ± 0.2 Pg C yr−1). We derive three independent comparable estimates from CO2 measurements and atmospheric inversions. Our EC estimate is 60% larger than the conventionally used multi-model average (44% higher at the global scale). This suggests that most models largely underestimate photosynthetic carbon fixation and therefore likely overestimate future atmospheric CO2 abundance and ensuing climate change, though not proportionately.

Irreversible ocean thermal expansion under carbon dioxide removal

Abstract. In the Paris Agreement in 2015 countries agreed on holding global mean surface air warming to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, but the emission reduction pledges under that agreement are not ambitious enough to meet this target. Therefore, the question arises of whether restoring global warming to this target after exceeding it by artificially removing CO2 from the atmosphere is possible. One important aspect is the reversibility of ocean heat uptake and associated sea level rise, which have very long (centennial to millennial) response timescales. In this study the response of sea level rise due to thermal expansion to a 1 % yearly increase of atmospheric CO2 up to a quadrupling of the pre-industrial concentration followed by a 1 % yearly decline back to the pre-industrial CO2 concentration is examined using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). We find that global mean thermosteric sea level (GMTSL) continues to rise for several decades after atmospheric CO2 starts to decline and does not return to pre-industrial levels for over 1000 years after atmospheric CO2 is restored to the pre-industrial concentration. This finding is independent of the strength of vertical sub-grid-scale ocean mixing implemented in the model. Furthermore, GMTSL rises faster than it declines in response to a symmetric rise and decline in atmospheric CO2 concentration partly because the deep ocean continues to warm for centuries after atmospheric CO2 returns to the pre-industrial concentration. Both GMTSL rise and decline rates increase with increasing vertical ocean mixing. Exceptions from this behaviour arise if the overturning circulations in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean intensify beyond pre-industrial levels in model versions with lower vertical mixing, which leads to rapid cooling of the deep ocean.

Late Cretaceous climate simulations with different CO2 levels and subarctic gateway configurations: A model‐data comparison

AbstractWe investigate the impact of different CO2 levels and different subarctic gateway configurations on the surface temperatures during the latest Cretaceous using the Earth System Model COSMOS. The simulated temperatures are compared with the surface temperature reconstructions based on a recent compilation of the latest Cretaceous proxies. In our numerical experiments, the CO2 level ranges from 1 to 6 times the preindustrial (PI) CO2 level of 280 ppm. On a global scale, the most reasonable match between modeling and proxy data is obtained for the experiments with 3 to 5 × PI CO2 concentrations. However, the simulated low‐ (high‐) latitude temperatures are too high (low) as compared to the proxy data. The moderate CO2 levels scenarios might be more realistic, if we take into account proxy data and the dead zone effect criterion. Furthermore, we test if the model‐data discrepancies can be caused by too simplistic proxy‐data interpretations. This is distinctly seen at high latitudes, where most proxies are biased toward summer temperatures. Additional sensitivity experiments with different ocean gateway configurations and constant CO2 level indicate only minor surface temperatures changes (<~1°C) on a global scale, with higher values (up to ~8°C) on a regional scale. These findings imply that modeled and reconstructed temperature gradients are to a large degree only qualitatively comparable, providing challenges for the interpretation of proxy data and/or model sensitivity. With respect to the latter, our results suggest that an assessment of greenhouse worlds is best constrained by temperatures in the midlatitudes.

Slow and fast responses of mean and extreme precipitation to different forcing in CMIP5 simulations

AbstractWe are investigating the fast and slow responses of changes in mean and extreme precipitation to different climate forcing mechanisms, such as greenhouse gas and solar forcing, to understand whether rapid adjustments are important for extreme precipitation. To disentangle the effect of rapid adjustment to a given forcing on the overall change in extreme precipitation, we use a linear regression method that has been previously applied to mean precipitation. Equilibrium experiments with preindustrial CO2 concentrations and reduced solar constant were compared with a four times CO2 concentration experiment for 10 state‐of‐the‐art climate models. We find that the two forcing mechanisms, greenhouse gases and solar, impose clearly different rapid adjustment signals in the mean precipitation, while such difference is difficult to discern for extreme precipitation due to large internal variability. In contrast to mean precipitation, changes in extreme precipitation scale with surface temperature trends and do not seem to depend on the forcing mechanism.

The Sensitivity of the Proportionality between Temperature Change and Cumulative CO2 Emissions to Ocean Mixing

The ratio of global mean surface air temperature change to cumulative CO2 emissions, referred to as transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE), has been shown to be approximately constant on centennial time scales. The mechanisms behind this constancy are not well understood, but previous studies suggest that compensating effects of ocean heat and carbon fluxes, which are governed by the same ocean mixing processes, could be one cause for this approximate constancy. This hypothesis is investigated by forcing different versions of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model, which differ in the ocean mixing parameterization, with an idealized scenario of 1% annually increasing atmospheric CO2 until quadrupling of the preindustrial CO2 concentration and constant concentration thereafter. The relationship between surface air warming and cumulative emissions remains close to linear, but the TCRE varies between model versions, spanning the range of 1.2°–2.1°C EgC−1 at the time of CO2 doubling. For all model versions, the TCRE is not constant over time while atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase. It is constant after atmospheric CO2 stabilizes at 1120 ppm, because of compensating changes in temperature sensitivity (temperature change per unit radiative forcing) and cumulative airborne fraction. The TCRE remains approximately constant over time even if temperature sensitivity, determined by ocean heat flux, and cumulative airborne fraction, determined by ocean carbon flux, are taken from different model versions with different ocean mixing settings. This can partially be explained with temperature sensitivity and cumulative airborne fraction following similar trajectories, which suggests ocean heat and carbon fluxes scale approximately linearly with changes in vertical mixing.

Natural variability in the surface ocean carbonate ion concentration

Abstract. We investigate variability in the surface ocean carbonate ion concentration ([CO32−]) on the basis of a~long control simulation with an Earth System Model. The simulation is run with a prescribed, pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 concentration for 1000 years, permitting investigation of natural [CO32−] variability on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. We find high interannual variability in surface [CO32−] in the tropical Pacific and at the boundaries between the subtropical and subpolar gyres in the Northern Hemisphere, and relatively low interannual variability in the centers of the subtropical gyres and in the Southern Ocean. Statistical analysis of modeled [CO32−] variance and autocorrelation suggests that significant anthropogenic trends in the saturation state of aragonite (Ωaragonite) are already or nearly detectable at the sustained, open-ocean time series sites, whereas several decades of observations are required to detect anthropogenic trends in Ωaragonite in the tropical Pacific, North Pacific, and North Atlantic. The detection timescale for anthropogenic trends in pH is shorter than that for Ωaragonite, due to smaller noise-to-signal ratios and lower autocorrelation in pH. In the tropical Pacific, the leading mode of surface [CO32−] variability is primarily driven by variations in the vertical advection of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in association with El Niño–Southern Oscillation. In the North Pacific, surface [CO32−] variability is caused by circulation-driven variations in surface DIC and strongly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, with peak spectral power at 20–30-year periods. North Atlantic [CO32−] variability is also driven by variations in surface DIC, and exhibits weak correlations with both the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. As the scientific community seeks to detect the anthropogenic influence on ocean carbonate chemistry, these results will aid the interpretation of trends calculated from spatially and temporally sparse observations.

Limacina helicina shell dissolution as an indicator of declining habitat suitability owing to ocean acidification in the California Current Ecosystem.

Few studies to date have demonstrated widespread biological impacts of ocean acidification (OA) under conditions currently found in the natural environment. From a combined survey of physical and chemical water properties and biological sampling along the Washington-Oregon-California coast in August 2011, we show that large portions of the shelf waters are corrosive to pteropods in the natural environment. We show a strong positive correlation between the proportion of pteropod individuals with severe shell dissolution damage and the percentage of undersaturated water in the top 100 m with respect to aragonite. We found 53% of onshore individuals and 24% of offshore individuals on average to have severe dissolution damage. Relative to pre-industrial CO2 concentrations, the extent of undersaturated waters in the top 100 m of the water column has increased over sixfold along the California Current Ecosystem (CCE). We estimate that the incidence of severe pteropod shell dissolution owing to anthropogenic OA has doubled in near shore habitats since pre-industrial conditions across this region and is on track to triple by 2050. These results demonstrate that habitat suitability for pteropods in the coastal CCE is declining. The observed impacts represent a baseline for future observations towards understanding broader scale OA effects.

Leaf respiration in darkness and in the light under pre-industrial, current and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations

Our study sought to understand how past, low atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]) impact respiration (R) of soybean (Glycine max), when compared to plants grown under current and future [CO2]s. Experiments were conducted using plants grown under 290, 400 and 700ppm [CO2]. Leaf R was measured in both darkness (RD) and in the light (RL; using the Kok method), with short-term changes in measurement [CO2] and [O2] being used to explore the relationship between light inhibition of leaf R and photorespiration. Root R, photosynthesis (A), leaf [N] and biomass allocation traits were also quantified. In contrast to the inhibitory effect of low growth [CO2] on A, growth [CO2] had no significant effect on leaf RD or root R. Irrespective of growth [CO2], RL was always lower than RD, with light inhibiting leaf R by 17–47%. Importantly, the degree of light inhibition of leaf R was lowest in plants grown under low [CO2], with variations in RL being positively correlated with RD and photorespiration. Irrespective of whether leaf R was measured in the light or dark, a greater proportion of the carbon fixed by leaf photosynthesis was released by leaf R in plants grown under low [CO2] than under current/future [CO2]’s. Collectively, our results highlight the differential responses of A and R to growth of plants under low to elevated atmospheric [CO2].

Forcings and feedbacks in the GeoMIP ensemble for a reduction in solar irradiance and increase in CO2

AbstractThe effective radiative forcings (including rapid adjustments) and feedbacks associated with an instantaneous quadrupling of the preindustrial CO2 concentration and a counterbalancing reduction of the solar constant are investigated in the context of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The forcing and feedback parameters of the net energy flux, as well as its different components at the top‐of‐atmosphere (TOA) and surface, were examined in 10 Earth System Models to better understand the impact of solar radiation management on the energy budget. In spite of their very different nature, the feedback parameter and its components at the TOA and surface are almost identical for the two forcing mechanisms, not only in the global mean but also in their geographical distributions. This conclusion holds for each of the individual models despite intermodel differences in how feedbacks affect the energy budget. This indicates that the climate sensitivity parameter is independent of the forcing (when measured as an effective radiative forcing). We also show the existence of a large contribution of the cloudy‐sky component to the shortwave effective radiative forcing at the TOA suggesting rapid cloud adjustments to a change in solar irradiance. In addition, the models present significant diversity in the spatial distribution of the shortwave feedback parameter in cloudy regions, indicating persistent uncertainties in cloud feedback mechanisms.

A revised 1000 year atmospheric δ13C‐CO2 record from Law Dome and South Pole, Antarctica

We present new measurements of δ13C of CO2 extracted from a high‐resolution ice core from Law Dome (East Antarctica), together with firn measurements performed at Law Dome and South Pole, covering the last 150 years. Our analysis is motivated by the need to better understand the role and feedback of the carbon (C) cycle in climate change, by advances in measurement methods, and by apparent anomalies when comparing ice core and firn air δ13C records from Law Dome and South Pole. We demonstrate improved consistency between Law Dome ice, South Pole firn, and the Cape Grim (Tasmania) atmospheric δ13C data, providing evidence that our new record reliably extends direct atmospheric measurements back in time. We also show a revised version of early δ13C measurements covering the last 1000 years, with a mean preindustrial level of −6.50‰. Finally, we use a Kalman Filter Double Deconvolution to infer net natural CO2 fluxes between atmosphere, ocean, and land, which cause small δ13C deviations from the predominant anthropogenically induced δ13C decrease. The main features found from the previous δ13C record are confirmed, including the ocean as the dominant cause for the 1940 A.D. CO2 leveling. Our new record provides a solid basis for future investigation of the causes of decadal to centennial variations of the preindustrial atmospheric CO2 concentration. Those causes are of potential significance for predicting future CO2 levels and when attempting atmospheric verification of recent and future global carbon emission mitigation measures through Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Models.

Increasing atmospheric CO2 reduces metabolic and physiological differences between isoprene‐ and non‐isoprene‐emitting poplars

Isoprene, a volatile organic compound produced by some plant species, enhances abiotic stress tolerance under current atmospheric CO2 concentrations, but its biosynthesis is negatively correlated with CO2 concentrations. We hypothesized that losing the capacity to produce isoprene would require stronger up-regulation of other stress tolerance mechanisms at low CO2 than at higher CO2 concentrations. We compared metabolite profiles and physiological performance in poplars (Populus×canescens) with either wild-type or RNAi-suppressed isoprene emission capacity grown at pre-industrial low, current atmospheric, and future high CO2 concentrations (190, 390 and 590ppm CO2 , respectively). Suppression of isoprene biosynthesis led to significant rearrangement of the leaf metabolome, increasing stress tolerance responses such as xanthophyll cycle pigment de-epoxidation and antioxidant levels, as well as altering lipid, carbon and nitrogen metabolism. Metabolic and physiological differences between isoprene-emitting and suppressed lines diminished as growth CO2 concentrations rose. The CO2 dependence of our results indicates that the effects of isoprene biosynthesis are strongest at pre-industrial CO2 concentrations. Rising CO2 may reduce the beneficial effects of biogenic isoprene emission, with implications for species competition. This has potential consequences for future climate warming, as isoprene emitted from vegetation has strong effects on global atmospheric chemistry.