Preferential Trade Liberalization Research Articles

Who benefits? Global supply chains and the regional comprehensive economic partnership

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) promises to expand trade substantially for businesses in the agreement’s 15 members countries, but who will be more likely to capture the gains from trade liberalization? Drawing on insights from the emerging research program on the politics of global production networks and value chains, this study unpacks the differential benefits of free trade agreements as a function of a firm’s degree of supply chain linkages with partner countries, thus moving beyond traditional theories of trade that draw the distinction primarily between import-competing and export-oriented firms. Leveraging an original survey of more than 500 firms in China, the empirical analyses show that the more backward and forward supply chain linkages with RCEP countries a firm has, the greater its likelihood of anticipating positive impact from the RCEP, even among exporters. These findings enrich our understanding of the political economy of preferential trade liberalization and global supply chains and offer policy suggestions for member countries hoping to maximize benefits for their businesses from the largest trade agreement in the world today.

Political–Economic Determinants of External Import Protection under a Preferential Trade Agreement

AbstractThe stalling of WTO multilateralism and the proliferation of preferential trade agreements in recent decades have drawn substantial attention to the impacts of preferential liberalization. A critical question is how they affect the trade barriers imposed against outsiders. I examine the relationship between preferential trade liberalization and protection against non-member countries by testing the predictions of a political–economy model based on the previous literature. Focusing on a specific model allows me to uncover the mechanisms via which preferential liberalization affects external import protection, whereas most of the existing literature has focused on establishing the sign of the effect only. Furthermore, I focus on not only tariffs, as most studies do, but also on the temporary trade barriers of antidumping and safeguards. I test the predictions for Latin America and obtain results that provide solid evidence supporting two mechanisms from the theory, which lead to lower protection against non-members of a preferential trade agreement. First, a lower preferential import protection level means that the increase in preferential imports from increasing the external tariff creates a smaller increase in tariff revenue. Second, as preferential import protection is cut, there is a decrease in the markup and sales of domestic firms, and thus raising the external import protection generates less profit. Moreover, this second effect is present when the political motivation of the government is sufficiently strong.

Ka Zeng, and Xiaojun Li, Fragmenting Globalization: The Politics of Preferential Trade Liberalization in China and the United States

Ka Zeng, and Xiaojun Li, Fragmenting Globalization: The Politics of Preferential Trade Liberalization in China and the United States

Public sensitivity to cultural identity and regime type of trading partners: a survey experiment from Turkey and Greece

Given that sharing a democratic regime or culture increases the likelihood of bilateral trade flows between country dyads, this article investigates whether individuals are more likely to support preferential trade liberalization with other democracies and countries they perceive as culturally similar to the home country. Adopting experimental manipulation of the regime type and the cultural identity of the partner country on nationally representative survey data from two emerging market countries, Turkey and Greece, I demonstrate that while cultural affiliation does not condition individual attitudes, respondents in both samples display a highly significant preference for trade liberalization with a democratic country over an authoritarian one. Assessments based on respondents’ endorsement of postmaterialist values, international trade attitudes, and interpersonal trust reveal that while the democracy preference of Turkish respondents are likely affected by functional reasons, both functional and normative dynamics condition Greek attitudes.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1057/s41304-020-00290-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Preferential Trade Liberalization with Endogenous Cartel Discipline: Implications for Welfare and Optimal Trade Policies

We consider an international cartel whose members interact repeatedly in their own as well as in third-country segmented markets. Cartel discipline--an inverse measure of the degree of competition between firms--is endogenously determined by the cartel's incentive compatibility constraint (ICC), which links strategically markets that are seemingly unrelated. Owing to this linkage, trade cost reductions induce cartel members to adjust their sales, not only due to direct effects, but also due to spillover effects related to cartel discipline. We apply these ideas to preferential trade agreements (PTAs) and show that the indirect effects can give rise to trade diversion. We also characterize the welfare effects of preferential tariff cuts for all countries under various circumstances regarding the determination of external PTA trade policy. A persistent finding is that, in the absence of appropriate regulation, preferential trade liberalization can be welfare-reducing even when external policy is jointly optimal.

Preferential and multilateral liberalization: Evidence from Latin America’s use of tariffs, antidumping and safeguards

I test the predictions of Bagwell and Staiger’s (1999) theory of the effects of preferential liberalization on import protection imposed against non-member countries. In contrast to the existing literature, which has (for the most part) focused on investigating whether external tariffs rise or fall due to preferential trade liberalization, by testing the predictions of a specific model in a way that closely follows the theory, I am able to examine the channels through which those effects take place. Importantly, and unlike most existing studies, I analyze not only tariffs but also the temporary trade barrier (TTB) policies of antidumping and safeguards. I focus on Latin America and find strong support for the theoretical predictions of Bagwell and Staiger (1999). First, there is evidence of tariff complementarity: i) a larger reduction in the preferential import protection leads to a larger reduction in protection against non-members; ii) the more consumption increases, the more external protection decreases with the fall in preferential protection; and iii) the more imports from the rest of the world fall, the more external protection decreases with a preferential protection cut. Furthermore, I also find evidence consistent with the punishment effect and the tariff discrimination effect, which arise when enforcement difficulties are incorporated into the theory. Finally, the overall results point toward a building block effect of preferential liberalization.

Measurement of Export Market Concentration for the Largest European Economic Integrations

Abstract Background: By joining different regional economic trade agreements, countries achieve preferential trade liberalisation. There are four main types of regional economic agreements in the world today: free trade area, customs union, common market, and economic and monetary union. Objectives: The goal of this paper is the measurement of the export market concentration for the largest European regional economic integrations in the period between 1995 and 2016. Methods/Approach: Various concentration measures have been used in the measurement of export market concentration, but the emphasis is placed on the standardized Herfindahl-Hirschman index as the basic measure of trade concentration. Results: Results of the analysis have shown that the highest concentration level of trade with countries worldwide is among the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries, whereas the EU-15 countries seem to have the lowest concentration level. On the other side, the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) countries have the highest concentration level of trade with countries from the same group, and again the EU-15 countries have the lowest concentration level, which indicates that the CEFTA countries implemented deeper integration processes related to mutual intra-regional trade. Conclusions: Deep integration processes led to lower values of export market concentration indices for intra-regional trade among countries of the same regional economic integration in comparison to trading with countries worldwide.

Modelling welfare effects under Pakistan–China free trade agreement

PurposeThis paper aims to empirically examine the trade creation and diversion impacts on merchandise imports of Pakistan under the Pakistan–China Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The analysis of Pakistan’s preferential treatment with its largest trade partner as well as the most substantial exporter of the world will help to shape trade policy, open windows for academic research and also gives an immense contribution in literature.Design/methodology/approachA disaggregated panel data on the imports of Pakistan from China and other WTO member countries and tariff concessions at Harmonized System (HS) two-digit level used for the agreement period of 2006-2012. The empirical analysis takes care of bias through robust and panel-corrected standard errors with time, industry-specific effects and controlling for multilateral trade resistance.FindingsEvidence found in support of trade creation under the Pakistan–China FTA. It means overall this agreement increased the welfare of Pakistani consumers.Practical implicationsFindings are in favour of negotiations and signing for the next round of this agreement and with other major trade partners like the US and Saudi Arabia.Originality/valueIt is worth investigating empirically the impact of preferential trade liberalization between Pakistan – a developing country – and China – the largest importer of the world – explicitly, in the form of trade creation or diversion. The empirical assessment of this FTA signed with the world’s largest exporter will not only contribute immensely to the literature but also help in trade policy formulation and open windows for academic research. Another unique aspect of this study is the use of disaggregated data consisting of all goods imports along with tariff concessions at two-digit Harmonized System (HS) code.

The Politics of Preferential Trade Liberalization in Authoritarian Countries

ABSTRACTWhile autocracies constitute a third of all signatories of preferential trade agreements (PTAs), very little research has explained why some autocrats join PTAs while others do not. We argue that this variation reflects the leader’s degree of vulnerability to elite-led coups during leadership change–whether a leader enters power legally or extralegally. New extralegal leaders are more vulnerable than new legal leaders, which encourages extralegal leaders to use PTAs to both build support from exporters and pressure disloyal importers. We test our hypotheses using a dyadic data set of 120 autocracies from 1960 to 2014. Our results show that extralegal leaders sign more and deeper PTAs than legal leaders. Moreover, we find that extralegal leaders with a high risk of coups are more likely to form deep PTAs than extralegal leaders with a low risk of coups. In line with our argument, we also provide evidence that extralegal leaders sign trade agreements that are likely to be enforced. Our article has implications for the political economy of trade and for development studies.

The Distributional Consequences of Preferential Trade Liberalization: Firm-Level Evidence

AbstractWhile increasing trade and foreign direct investment, international trade agreements create winners and losers. Our paper examines the distributional consequences of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) at the firm level. We contend that PTAs expand trade among the largest and most productive multinationals by lowering preferential tariffs. We examine data covering the near universe of US foreign direct investment and disaggregated tariff data from PTAs signed by the United States. Our results indicate that US preferential tariffs increase sales to the United States from the most competitive subsidiaries of multinational corporations operating in partner countries. We also find increases in market concentration in partner countries following preferential liberalization with the United States. By demonstrating that the gains from preferential liberalization are unevenly distributed across firms, we shed new light on the firm-level, economic sources of political mobilization over international trade and investment policies.

Preferential versus multilateral trade liberalization and the role of political economy

In this paper we analyze the effect of the freedom to pursue preferential trade liberalization, permitted by Article XXIV of the GATT, on country׳s incentives to participate in multilateral negotiations and on feasibility of global free trade. We present a model, in which countries choose whether to participate in preferential or multilateral trade agreements under political pressures from domestic special interest groups. We show that heterogeneity in political preferences across countries plays an important role in determining the relative merits of preferential and multilateral approaches to trade liberalization. On one hand, the opportunity to liberalize preferentially may be necessary to induce countries with strong political motivations to participate in multilateral free trade negotiations. On the other hand, when countries share similar political preferences, multilateral free trade that would have been politically supported otherwise becomes unattainable if countries can pursue preferential liberalization.

Distributional effects of multilateral and preferential trade liberalisation: The case of Paraguay

The aim of this work is to dissect the distributional impact of preferential and multilateral trade liberalisation on household well-being using individual level data for Paraguay never exploited so far. For this purpose, the intrazone and applied most favored nation (MFN) tariff pass-through rate on the prices of traded goods is estimated, and the impacts of trade induced price changes on households as consumers and as income earners are calculated. The results indicate that trade liberalisation has benefited households along the entire income distribution and, most importantly, show that these benefits differ according to the type of liberalisation policies implemented.

The effect of the Canada‐US Free Trade Agreement on Canadian multilateral trade liberalization

AbstractIn this paper show that the Canada‐US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA) tariff preferences have triggered a decline in Canadian external tariffs, explaining a two percentage point reduction in the average tariff between 1989 and 1998. Next, we found that industries that generate the least export rent to the US firms experienced deeper tariff cuts in Canada; this result provides evidence of cooperation in trade policies between the US and Canada. Finally, we estimate the effect of the CUSFTA on the intensity of industrial lobbying for trade policy in Canada and find no relationship between preferential trade liberalization and lobbying activity.

Welfare Impacts of Preferential Trade Liberalization in South Asia

Focusing on the global trading relationship aggregated at the level of 15 regions and 10 sectors, we investigate in this paper the welfare effects of preferential trade liberalisation in South Asia from several simulation perspectives. The static version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model shows that countries that are initially more protected (such as India) are likely to capture the lion’s share of the gain from the liberalization scheme. Countries that maintain status quo are the losers; prominent among them are the EU 25 and the North America region. However, these results are dramatically changed in the dynamic version of the GTAP model. In terms of deviations from the baseline scenario, the regional integration policy in South Asia turns out to be net welfare reducing for both the region and the rest of the world.

The “Emulator Effect” of the Uruguay Round on US Regionalism

AbstractUsing a detailed data set at the tariff line level, we find an emulator effect of multilateralism on subsequent regional trade agreements (RTAs) involving the USA. We exploit the variation in the frequency with which the US grants immediate duty free access (IDA) to its RTA partners across tariff lines. A key finding is that the US grants IDA status especially on goods for which it has cut the multilateral most favored nation (MFN) tariff during the Uruguay Round the most. Our results suggest that the Uruguay Round multilateral “concessions” have elicited subsequent preferential trade liberalization.

How effective is the Free Trade Agreement in South Asia? An empirical investigation

We investigate the efficacy of preferential trade liberalization in changing the observed trade pattern among the South Asian countries that have entered into the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA). Although in its nascent stage, some data are now available to provide an ex-post evaluation of the performance of this bloc. Using these data, we find no empirical evidence of trade creation among SAFTA members, which is not surprising given that tariff concessions in SAFTA are small and are offset by complicated rules of origin procedure. However, a substantial and statistically significant increase in exports from SAFTA members to the rest of the world is found. Several panel strategies are used to check the sensitivity of the results against the assumptions of the estimation strategies. As some key coefficient estimates are found to differ across estimation methods, policymakers in South Asia need to use care in relying on the results from empirical studies, including our own, in formulating their trade policies.

Sustaining multilateral trade cooperation in a multipolar world economy

The deadlock in the WTO Doha Round has been accompanied by an increased focus on the negotiation of preferential trade agreements, including so-called ‘mega-regionals’. This paper discusses possible implications for—and possible responses by—excluded countries that have little prospects of participating in most of the mega-regionals. A number of complementary avenues are identified through which such countries might attenuate the potential downsides of preferential trade liberalization among large countries, as well as some proposals that would expand the scope to pursue cooperation on regulatory policies in the WTO as opposed to PTAs.

On the Relationship between Preferential and Multilateral Trade Liberalization: The Case of Customs Unions

This paper compares equilibrium outcomes of two games of trade liberalization. In the Bilateralism game, countries choose whether to liberalize trade preferentially via a customs union (CU), multilaterally, or not at all. The Multilateralism game is a restricted version of the Bilateralism game in that countries cannot form CUs and can only undertake non-discriminatory trade liberalization. When countries have symmetric endowments, global free trade is the only stable equilibrium of both games. Allowing for endowment asymmetry, we isolate circumstances where the option to form CUs helps further the cause of multilateral liberalization as well as where it does not. (JEL F12, F13)

The Clash of Negotiations: The Impact of Outside Options on Multilateral Trade Negotiations

Abstract While the number of preferential trade agreements (PTA) has increased rapidly in recent years, the Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations has been deadlocked since 2006. Most PTAs were even concluded after the start of the Doha round. Does the shift to PTAs “marginalize” the multilateral system? And is there a clash between preferential and multilateral trade liberalization? To answer these questions, we build upon negotiation analysis literature, arguing that the proliferation of PTAs draws negotiating capacity away from the multilateral level and thus reduces the incentives to agree on multilateral trade agreements. The willingness of actors to move from their initial bargaining positions and make concessions at the multilateral level depends on their outside options, that is, their best or worst alternatives to a negotiated agreement. The more credible an actor’s argument that he has a good alternative to multilateralism, the greater his bargaining power will be. In order to support the argument we will analyze the negotiation process at the multilateral level and link it to PTAs under negotiation by the EU, US, Brazil, Australia, and India.

Sustaining Multilateral Trade Cooperation in a Multipolar World Economy

The deadlock in the WTO Doha Round has been accompanied by an increased focus on the negotiation of preferential trade agreements, including so-called ‘mega-regionals’. This paper discusses possible implications for — and possible responses by — excluded countries that have little prospects of participating in most of the mega-regionals. A number of complementary avenues are identified through which such countries might attenuate the potential downsides of preferential trade liberalization among large countries, as well some proposals that would expand the scope to pursue cooperation on regulatory policies in the WTO as opposed to PTAs.