Predictors Of Trajectory Group Membership Research Articles

Predictors of symptom trajectory in newly diagnosed ulcerative colitis: a 3-year follow-up cohort study.

Psychological symptoms are associated with poorer ulcerative colitis (UC)-related outcomes. However, the majority of research is cross-sectional. We aimed to identify subgroups based on the longitudinal evolution of GI symptom levels and health-related quality of life (HRQoL), and to disentangle the directionality of effects between GI symptom levels and psychological distress. Self-reported GI symptom severity, HRQoL, inflammatory biomarkers and psychological distress were assessed in 98 newly diagnosed UC patients at disease onset and yearly for 3 consecutive years. Latent class growth analysis was used to determine subgroups based on longitudinal trajectories of symptom severity and HRQoL, and baseline predictors of trajectory group membership were determined. Cross-lagged structural equation models were used to disentangle temporal relationships between psychological functioning and symptom severity. Patients with higher initial psychological distress had increased probability of maintaining higher levels of diarrhea and abdominal pain. Conversely, patients with lower initial levels of diarrhea and abdominal pain had higher chances of maintaining lower levels of psychological distress. Higher levels of C-reactive protein at baseline predicted greater improvements in mental health after anti-inflammatory treatment. Reductions in diarrhea and abdominal pain preceded reductions in psychological symptoms over time. Baseline psychological distress is predictive of increased GI symptom severity and reduced mental HRQoL over time, suggesting early assessment of psychological symptoms may identify patients who may have worse disease trajectories. Abdominal pain predicted increased psychological distress, but not the other way around. Intervening on abdominal pain may help prevent or reduce future psychological distress.

Long-term patterns of treatment use for opioid use disorder (OUD): Findings from the 18-20-year Australian Treatment Outcome Study.

Opioid-related deaths continue to increase to unprecedented rates in many regions of the world. While long-term stable treatment has been shown to reduce associated morbidity and mortality, discontinuation and numerous treatment episodes are common, limiting our understanding of the common course of treatment and associated characteristics. Therefore, using an 18-20-year follow-up of people with heroin dependence, we aimed to identify i) distinct trajectories of treatment use, ii) whether baseline characteristics predict treatment trajectory group membership, and ii) if group membership is associated with characteristics at 18-20-years post-baseline. A total of 615 people with heroin dependence were recruited from maintenance therapy, detoxification, residential rehabilitation, or needle and syringe programs as part of the Australian Treatment Outcome Study (ATOS), a longitudinal cohort followed up on seven occasions over 18-20-years between 2001 and 2021. Of those who had complete data (n=393), group-based trajectory modelling and a series of multinomial logistical regressions were conducted. Five trajectories of treatment use were identified: i) 'long-term low treatment' (17.2%), ii) 'rapid increase with gradual decrease' (13.9%), iii) 'late increase' (17.8%), (iv) 'long-term treatment' (27.7%), and (v) 'reduced treatment' (23.5%). Entering maintenance treatment at baseline predicted trajectory group membership, while trajectory group membership was associated with demographics and the use of heroin, methamphetamine, alcohol, and benzodiazepines at 18-20-years. In one of the longest cohort studies of its kind, we characterised distinct trajectories of treatment use in people with heroin dependence over 18-20-years. Clinicians should be aware of the potential impact of demographics and substance use on long-term treatment use. Despite the well-documented benefits of long-term treatment, some patients may be able to achieve abstinence from opioids without engaging in treatment over the life-course.

Multifactorial assessment of Parkinson's disease course and outcomes using trajectory modeling in a multiethnic, multisite cohort - extension of the LONG-PD study.

The severity, progression, and outcomes of motor and non-motor symptoms in Parkinson's disease (PD) are quite variable. Following PD cohorts holds promise for identifying predictors of disease severity and progression. PD patients (N = 871) were enrolled at five sites. Enrollment occurred within 5 years of initial motor symptom onset. Disease progression was assessed annually for 2-to-10 years after onset. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify groups differing in disease progression. Models were developed for UPDRS-III scores, UPDRS-III tremor and bradykinesia-rigidity subscores, Hoehn & Yahr (H&Y) stage, Mini-Mental Status Exam (MMSE) scores, and UPDRS-III, H&Y and MMSE scores considered together. Predictors of trajectory-group membership were modeled simultaneously with the trajectories. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis evaluated survival free of PD outcomes. The best fitting models identified three groups. One showed a relatively benign, slowly progressing trajectory (Group 1), a second showed a moderate, intermediately progressing trajectory (Group 2), and a third showed a more severe, rapidly progressing trajectory (Group 3). Stable trajectory-group membership occurred relatively early in the disease course, 5 years after initial motor symptom. Predictors of intermediate and more severe trajectory-group membership varied across the single variable models and the multivariable model jointly considering UPDRS-III, H&Y and MMSE scores. In the multivariable model, membership in Group 2 (28.4% of patients), relative to Group 1 (50.5%), was associated with male sex, younger age-at-onset, fewer education-years, pesticide exposure, absence of reported head injury, and akinetic/rigid subtype at initial presentation. Membership in Group 3 (21.3%), relative to Group 1, was associated with older age-at-onset, fewer education-years, pesticide exposure, and the absence of a tremor-predominant subtype at initial presentation. Persistent freezing, persistent falls, and cognitive impairment occurred earliest and more frequently in Group 3, later and less frequently in Group 2, and latest and least frequently in Group 1. Furthermore, autonomic complications, dysphagia, and psychosis occurred more frequently in Groups 2 and 3 than in Group 1. Modeling disease course using multiple objective assessments over an extended follow-up duration identified groups that more accurately reflect differences in PD course, prognosis, and outcomes than assessing single parameters over shorter intervals.

A prospective study of psychological distress among patients with advanced cancer and their caregivers.

Cancer can impact the psychological well-being of both patients and their informal caregivers. We investigated the joint trajectories of psychological distress among Singaporean advanced cancer patients-caregiver dyads. We also examined predictors of trajectory group membership. This study utilised data from 299 patients with advanced solid cancer and their caregivers over 33 months (12 times points). Group-based trajectory modelling was used to examine the joint trajectories of patient anxiety, patient depression, caregiver anxiety and caregiver depression scores using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. Four joint trajectory groups were found: (1) Patient-caregiver low distress (27%), (2) patient-caregiver increasing distress (28.5%), (3) patient low- caregiver borderline distress (25%), (4) patient-caregiver high distress (19.5%). Dyads where the patient is below 50 years of age were more likely to be in Group 4. Dyads where caregiver-patient emotional closeness was low were more likely to be in Groups 2 or 4 where dyads reported increasing/high distress. Dyads that reported financial inadequacy were more likely to be in Groups 2, 3 and 4, while dyads with caregivers who were employed were more likely to be in group 3. A substantial proportion of patients and caregivers reported anxiety and/or depression that lasted or increased throughout the study duration. We found significant heterogeneity in how dyads experienced psychological distress, suggesting that efforts should consider dyadic differences when providing psychological support. Particular focus should be placed on identifying dyads that are at risk and who require additional support.

Trajectories of ENDS and cigarette use among dual users: analysis of waves 1 to 5 of the PATH Study

IntroductionConcurrent electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) and cigarette (dual) use is harmful. Identifying longitudinal trajectories of ENDS and cigarette use among dual users can help to determine the public health...

Longitudinal Trajectories of Clean Intermittent Catheterization Responsibility in Youths with Spina Bifida.

Clean intermittent catheterization (CIC) responsibility among youths with spina bifida is not well studied. We sought to determine longitudinal trajectories of CIC responsibility to examine the transition of CIC responsibility from caregiver-CIC to self-CIC. We performed a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study of youths with spina bifida. Participants aged 8-15 years originally recruited from 4 hospitals and a statewide spina bifida association were followed every 2 years. Participants who required CIC were included. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to isolate distinct trajectories of CIC responsibility, which was the primary outcome and was graded from caregiver-CIC to shared-CIC to self-CIC. Predictors of trajectory group membership were entered into multivariate logistic regression models and included various demographic, clinical and psychosocial characteristics such as CIC adherence and CIC mastery. Of 140 youths in the original cohort study, 89 met eligibility criteria for this study. Mean age was 11 years at enrollment and 93% of patients had myelomeningocele. Two distinct trajectory groups emerged: 17% of patients had a low-flat trajectory and 83% had a high-increasing trajectory of CIC responsibility, with shared-CIC by age 8-9 years and increasing self-CIC responsibility thereafter. Significant predictors of group membership in the high-increasing trajectory group included less severe spinal lesion levels, higher CIC mastery and lower CIC adherence. Nearly 1 in 5 youths with spina bifida in our cohort persistently required caregiver-CIC over time, while the remainder achieved shared-CIC responsibility by age 8-9 years, with increasing self-CIC responsibility thereafter.

Examining trajectories of hospital readmission in older adults hospitalised with hip fracture from residential aged care and the community.

To examine hospital service use trajectories of older adults who were hospitalised for hip fracture and living in a residential aged care facility (RACF) or the community, and to identify factors predictive of trajectory group membership. These findings may inform future programmes aimed at reducing unexpected hospitalisations and subsequently reduce health care costs. A group-based trajectory analysis of hospitalisations was conducted for adults aged ≥ 65years hospitalised for hip fracture during 2008-2009 in New South Wales, Australia. Linked hospitalisation and RACF data were examined for a 5-year period. Group-based trajectory models were derived for RACF and community-dwelling older adults based on the number of subsequent hospital admissions following the index hip fracture. Multinomial logistic regression examined predictors of trajectory group membership for subsequent hospital admissions. There were 5752 hip fracture hospitalisations, with two-thirds of hip fractures occurring in community-dwellers. Key predictors of trajectory group membership for both RACF residents and community-dwellers were age group, sex, hospital length of stay and cognitive impairment. Assistance with activities of daily living and complex health care needs were also predictive of group membership in RACF residents. Location of residence and time to move to a RACF were additional predictors of group membership for community-dwellers. Health service use trajectories differed for RACF residents and community-dwellers; however, there were similar patient characteristics that defined trajectory group membership. Low users of hospital services living in RACFs or the community included older adults with generally unfavourable health conditions, potentially indicating that palliative care or advanced care directives and community-care initiatives, respectively, have played a part in the lowered frequency of rehospitalisation.

Treatment response trajectories in a three-week CPT-Based intensive treatment for veterans with PTSD

Response to weekly evidence-based PTSD treatments varies. Little is known about response trajectories and predictors in intensive PTSD treatments. This study sought to identify different trajectories of symptom change among veterans who completed a 3-week CPT-based intensive PTSD treatment program and examined potential predictors of trajectory group membership. Four hundred fifty-two veterans completed the program. Demographics, PTSD and depression severity, negative posttrauma cognitions, and alcohol use were assessed at intake and evaluated as possible predictors of group membership. Group based trajectory modeling was used to determine distinct groups based on PTSD symptom trajectory over the course of treatment, as well as predictors of group membership. Four distinct treatment trajectories were identified: Fast responders (15.3%), steady responders (32.0%), partial responders (38.4%), and minimal responders (14.4%). Fast and steady responders reported substantial symptom reductions and dropped below the “probable PTSD” threshold, with fast responders achieving improvements after just one week of treatment. Partial responders experienced clinically significant reductions but remained above the “probable PTSD” threshold. Minimal responders reported the highest baseline PTSD symptoms and changed the least throughout treatment. Negative posttrauma cognitions as well as self-reported and clinician-rated PTSD symptom severity assessed at intake successfully predicted trajectory membership. The identified trajectories closely resemble findings in the limited existing literature on intensive PTSD treatment trajectories. Results suggest that some individuals may improve with even shorter interventions and others might benefit from additional treatment sessions. Overall, findings support the importance of evaluating individual- and group-level treatment responses.

Patients follow three distinct outcome trajectories following total knee arthroplasty.

Although total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is a highly successful procedure, about 20% of patients remain dissatisfied postoperatively. This proportion is derived from dichotomous models of the assessment of surgical success or failure, which may not reflect the spectrum of outcomes. The aim of this study was to explore differing responses to surgery, and assess whether there are distinct groups of patients with differing patterns of outcome. This was a secondary analysis of a UK multicentre TKA longitudinal cohort study. We used a group-based trajectory modelling analysis of Oxford Knee Score (OKS) in the first year following surgery with longitudinal data involving five different timepoints and multiple predictor variables. Associations between the derived trajectory groups and categorical baseline variables were assessed, and predictors of trajectory group membership were identified using Poisson regression and multinomial logistic regression, as appropriate. The final model was adjusted for sociodemographic factors (age, sex) and baseline OKS. Data from 731 patients were available for analysis. Three distinct trajectories of outcome were identified: "poor" 14.0%, "modest" 39.1%, and "good" 46.9%. The predicted probability of membership for patients assigned to each trajectory group was high (0.89 to 0.93). Preoperative mental, physical health, and psychosocial factors determined which trajectory is likely to be followed. Poor responders were characterized by a comparatively small number of factors, preoperative expectations of pain and limitations, coping strategies, and a lower baseline physical health status, while the good responders were characterized by a combination of clinical, psychosocial, mental health, and quality of life factors. We identified three distinct response trajectories in patients undergoing TKA. Controlling for baseline score, age, and sex, psychosocial factors such as expectations of pain and limited function and poor coping strategies differentiated the trajectory groups, suggesting a role for preoperative psychosocial support in optimizing the clinical outcome. Cite this article: Bone Joint J2021;103-B(6):1096-1102.

Childhood Predictors of Adolescent Joint Trajectories: A Multi-Informant Study on Bullying Perpetration and Hypercompetitiveness

ABSTRACT Objective: Bullying perpetration has been proposed to be a strategic behavior used by adolescents to compete for social resources, yet the co-development of bullying perpetration and trait hypercompetitiveness is understudied. The joint developmental trajectories of self-rated bullying perpetration and parent-rated hypercompetitiveness were investigated in a sample of adolescents and childhood social, emotional, and physical predictors were explored. Method: In a sample of 607 adolescents (M age = 13.02 years in Grade 7 [SD = 0.38]; 54.4% girls; 76.4% White) self-rated bullying perpetration and parent-rated hypercompetitiveness were assessed across six years of development (Grades 7 to 12). Childhood (i.e., Grades 5 and 6) social, emotional, and physical predictors of trajectory group membership were also examined. Results: Using latent class growth analyses, the three expected joint trajectory groups of primary interest were found: (1) a pattern of moderate stable bullying perpetration and high increasing hypercompetitiveness (high-risk group), (2) a pattern of low decreasing bullying and high increasing hypercompetitiveness (hypercompetitive only group), and (3) a pattern of low decreasing bullying and low stable hypercompetitiveness (low-risk group). Adolescents reflecting the high-risk joint trajectory pattern were differentiated from adolescents reflecting the other two trajectory patterns by having more adverse childhood social, emotional, and physical predictors. Conclusions: Findings indicate that bullying is a developmental and context-dependent behavior that can reflect trait hypercompetitiveness. Bullying prevention efforts should focus on reducing emphasis on outcompeting peers and instead facilitate a sense of self-acceptance, awareness, and accomplishment within prosocial school and family environments.

Finding a balance in family caregiving for people with dementia: A correlational longitudinal study.

The "Finding a Balance Point" framework was used to explore the caregiving process over time for family caregivers of people with dementia in Taiwan. This study aimed to: (a) identify Taiwanese caregivers' different balance trajectories; (b) explore predictors of trajectory group membership; and (c) examine associations of different balance trajectories with caregiving outcomes. A correlational longitudinal design was used. Data were collected from 200 family caregivers' self-completed questionnaires and they were followed over 2years (June 2015-May 2017). Discrete balance trajectories were identified by group-based trajectory modelling. Predictors of trajectory group membership were identified from potential predictors of caregiving characteristics and caregiving factors using multivariate logistic regression. Associations of trajectory groups with caregiving outcomes (depressive symptoms and health-related quality of life) were explored using the generalized estimating equation. Balance trajectories best fit a two-group trajectory model (poor and good). Caregivers with a poor sense of balance between competing needs were more likely to have more depressive symptoms (b=11.71, 95% CI [9.04, 14.38], p<.001), worse physical health (b=-6.22, 95% CI [-8.71, -3.74], p<.001), and worse mental health (b=-11.1, 95% CI [-13.58, -8.63], p<.001) than caregivers with a good sense of balance. Caregivers experiencing lower role strain (b=-1.45, SE=0.48, p=.003) or higher predictability (b=2.83, SE=0.76, p<.001) were more likely to belong to the good-balance group. Caregivers with poor balance between competing needs are more likely to have worse caregiving outcomes. Role strain and predictability significantly predicted balance trajectory groups. Family caregivers with lower caregiving task difficulty and/or better knowledge of the care receiver were more likely to be in the good balance trajectory group. Our findings support the framework, "Finding a Balance Point," and clarify the family caregiving process for people with dementia. This framework could be used to tailor interventions for home care nurses to improve family caregivers' caregiving outcomes.

Trajectories of Hospital Readmission After A Fall Injury for Older Adults Living in Aged Care or The Community

IntroductionFall injuries are one of the leading causes of hospitalisation for adults aged ≥65 years. Distinguishing key characteristics of older adults who are either living in aged care or in the community who have multiple hospital readmissions after a fall injury may inform targeted approaches to the prevention of hospital readmissions.&#x0D; Objectives and ApproachTo examine trajectories of hospital readmission of older adults living in aged care or the community after a fall injury hospitalisation and to identify factors predictive of trajectory group membership. A group-based trajectory analysis of hospital readmissions of adults aged ≥65 years who had a fall injury hospitalisation during 2008-09 in New South Wales, Australia was conducted. Linked hospitalisation and aged care data were examined for a 5 year period to 2013. Group-based trajectory models were derived based on number of subsequent readmissions following the index admission. Multinominal logistic regression examined predictors of trajectory group membership.&#x0D; ResultsThere were 24,729 fall injury hospitalisations; 78.8% of fallers were living in the community and 21.2% in aged care. Five distinct trajectory groups were identified for community-living (i.e. Moderate-declining, Chronic, Low-constant, Low-declining, and High users) and four trajectory groups for aged care residents (i.e. Low, Moderate-declining, Moderate-chronic, and High users). Key predictors of trajectory group membership for both community-living and aged care residents were age group, number of comorbidities, and dementia status. For aged care residents, depression, assistance with activities of daily living, and number of subsequent fall injury admissions were also predictors of group membership, with time to move to an aged care facility a predictor of group membership for community-living.&#x0D; Conclusion / ImplicationsIdentifying trajectories of ongoing hospital use informs targeting of strategies to reduce hospital admissions and design of services to allow community-living individuals to remain as long as possible within their own residence.

Trajectories and risk factors of dementia progression: a memory clinic cohort followed up to 3 years from diagnosis.

Patients with dementia follow different trajectories of progression. We aimed to investigate which factors at the time of diagnosis could predict trajectory group membership. Longitudinal observational study. Specialized memory clinic, Oslo University Hospital in Norway. Patients assessed at the memory clinic, between 12 January 2009 and 31 July 2016, who were registered in the Norwegian Registry of persons assessed for cognitive symptoms (NorCog) and diagnosed with dementia after the baseline examination period (n = 442). The patients were followed up to 3 years, with an average of 3.5 examinations. Clinical Dementia Rating Scale Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB), Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), the Consortium to Establish a Registry of Alzheimer's disease (CERAD) 10-item word list delayed recall, the Clock Drawing Test, (CDT) Trail Making Test A (TMT-A), and Neuropsychiatric Inventory Questionnaire (NPI-Q). Based on changes in scores on the CDR-SB, we used group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) to explore the presence of trajectory groups. Multinomial logistic regression was used to explore whether a set of baseline variables could predict trajectory group membership. Three trajectory groups were identified, one with a slow progression rate and two with more-rapid progression. Rapid progression was associated with older age, lower cognitive function (MMSE and TMT-A), and more-pronounced neuropsychiatric symptoms (NPI-Q) at the time of diagnosis. Our findings demonstrate the heterogeneity of dementia progression and describe risk factors for rapid progression, emphasizing the need for individual follow-up regimes. For future intervention studies, our results may guide the selection of patients.

Examining income dynamics and externalizing and internalizing trajectories through a developmental psychopathology lens: A nationally representative study.

Prior research has documented elevations in levels of internalizing and externalizing behaviors among children in lower income families in comparison to more advantaged peers. However, most studies focus on behavior problems at a single point in time or within a short developmental period. Associations between income dynamics and developmental trajectories of behavior problems over time are less understood. To address this, the current study uses data from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth (N = 7,476; 50.8% male) to examine how income dynamics (annual income and income volatility) across three distinct developmental periods from early childhood to early adolescence relate to trajectories of externalizing and internalizing problems. Group-based mixture modeling revealed a five-group trajectory model for externalizing behavior and a four-group trajectory model for internalizing behavior. Higher cumulative annual income predicted greater likelihood of belonging to the low-stable group compared to the other, more problematic groups for both externalizing and internalizing trajectories. In addition, income losses predicted higher risk of membership in any group other than the low-stable group for internalizing and externalizing behavior. Developmental period-specific income dynamics, though not as consistent as cumulative dynamics, also predicted trajectory group membership.

Hospital service utilization trajectories of individuals living with epilepsy in New South Wales, Australia, 2012–2016: A population-based study

ObjectivesThis study aimed to examine five-year trajectories of hospital service utilization among individuals living with epilepsy in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, and to identify factors predictive of trajectory group membership. MethodsThis study used group-based trajectory modeling of hospital admissions over a five-year period for individuals living with epilepsy who had an epilepsy-related hospitalization during 1 January 2012 and 31 December 2012 in NSW, Australia (n = 5762). ResultsThe analysis revealed the following five distinct hospital service utilization trajectory groups: “one-off users” (Group 1; 22.9%), “low-chronic users” (Group 2; 47.1%), “moderate-declining users” (Group 3; 10.3%), “moderate-chronic users” (Group 4; 18.3%), and “high-chronic users” (Group 5; 1.5%). There were key features that defined trajectory group membership, in particular the relative proportions of group members with chronic health conditions, other comorbid conditions, refractory epilepsy, and status epilepticus. For instance, “high-chronic users” (Group 5) had higher proportions of individuals with chronic health conditions (34.8%) and refractory epilepsy (19.1%); “moderate-declining users” (Group 3) had higher proportions of individuals with chronic health conditions (35.1%) and status epilepticus (9.8%); and “low-chronic users” (Group 2) had the lowest proportion of individuals with chronic health conditions. ConclusionIt is important to gain a better understanding of hospital service utilization among individuals living with epilepsy. This research has identified trajectory groups of hospital service utilization profiles of individuals living with epilepsy. Identification of predictors of trajectory group membership allows targeting of strategies to reduce hospital admissions, inform healthcare service delivery, and improve the health and wellbeing of individuals living with epilepsy.

Trajectories of retention in opioid agonist therapy in a Canadian setting

BackgroundLong-term engagement in opioid agonist therapy (OAT) has been consistently associated with reduced risk for morbidity and mortality in people with opioid use disorder (OUD). However, the dynamic nature of engagement/disengagement in OUD care for over time is poorly captured by traditional metrics. We characterized long-term longitudinal trajectories of engagement in OAT in Vancouver, Canada, between 2005 and 2018. MethodsData were derived from two community-recruited prospective cohorts of people who use drugs. Retention in OAT was defined as self-reported enrolment in OAT for two consecutive follow-up periods (an approximately six-month retention interval). We used latent class growth analysis to identify OAT engagement trajectories during the first five years after OAT initiation and multivariable logistic regression to evaluate predictors of trajectory group membership. ResultsWe identified four OAT retention trajectories among 438 OAT initiators: “consistently high” (36%), “consistently low” (23%), “increasing” (23%), and “decreasing” (15%). Employment was a significant cross-cutting predictor of membership of all sub-optimal OAT engagement patterns compared to consistently high trajectories. We also found that initiating OAT after 2014 (when regulatory changes to the provincial OAT program were introduced) was associated with the “consistently low” engagement group relative to others. ConclusionsWe identified four distinct OAT engagement trajectories in Vancouver, Canada, with employment being a common predictor of sub-optimal care trajectories, suggesting the need to explore alternative OAT models to address employment-related barriers. Care trajectory analysis could help inform tailored interventions to specific populations of people with OUD at specific time points to improve engagement in OAT, and decrease opioid-related morbidity and mortality.

Classifying Patients with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis by Changes in FVC. A Group-based Trajectory Analysis.

Rationale: A model for stratifying progression of respiratory muscle weakness in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) would identify disease mechanisms and phenotypes suitable for future investigations. This study sought to categorize progression of FVC after presentation to an outpatient ALS clinic.Objectives: To identify clinical phenotypes of ALS respiratory progression based on FVC trajectories over time.Methods: We derived a group-based trajectory model from a single-center cohort of 837 patients with ALS who presented between 2006 and 2015. We applied our model to the Pooled Resource Open-Access ALS Clinical Trials (PRO-ACT) database with 7,461 patients with ALS. Baseline characteristics at first visit were used as predictors of trajectory group membership. The primary outcome was trajectory of FVC over time in months.Measurements and Main Results: We found three trajectories of FVC over time, termed "stable low," "rapid progressor," and "slow progressor." Compared with the slow progressors, the rapid progressors had shorter diagnosis delay, more bulbar-onset disease, and a lower ALS Functional Rating Scale-Revised (ALSFRS-R) total score at baseline. The stable low group had a shorter diagnosis delay, lower body mass index, more bulbar-onset disease, lower ALSFRS-R total score, and were more likely to have an ALSFRS-R orthopnea score lower than 4 compared with the slow progressors. We found that projected group membership predicted respiratory insufficiency in the PRO-ACT cohort (concordance statistic = 0.78, 95% CI, 0.76-0.79).Conclusions: We derived a group-based trajectory model for FVC progression in ALS, which validated against the outcome of respiratory insufficiency in an external cohort. Future studies may focus on patients predicted to be rapid progressors.

Perinatal depression among mothers in a South African birth cohort study: Trajectories from pregnancy to 18 months postpartum

BackgroundPerinatal depression affects 21–50% of women in South Africa and poses significant health risks to mothers and children. Trajectories of depressive symptoms change over time and have not been well characterized during the perinatal period in low and middle-income countries. MethodsData from women enrolled in a population-based birth cohort study in Paarl, South Africa with at least 3 depression measures from pregnancy through 18 months postpartum (N = 831) were analyzed. Depressive symptoms were measured continuously using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). Group-based trajectory models were used to estimate trajectories of depressive symptoms during the perinatal period and multinomial multivariable models to identify predictors of trajectory group membership. ResultsFive distinct trajectory patterns of depressive symptoms were identified: moderate levels of depressive symptoms during pregnancy but minimal postpartum (3.5%), minimal levels during pregnancy and increasing postpartum (3.7%), unstable levels peaking at 12 months postpartum (6.6%), mild levels with slight decrease postpartum (82.9%), and severe levels during pregnancy and postpartum (3.1%). Membership in the chronic severe symptom group was associated with stressful life events, sexual intimate partner violence and tobacco use. LimitationsModeling limitations prevented determining how changes in psychosocial predictors over time may influence depressive symptom trajectories. ConclusionsMild to severe depressive symptoms during pregnancy/postpartum were common among this South African cohort. Interventions to treat women with severe chronic depressive symptoms with co-occurring psychosocial issues are urgently needed.

Future hospital service utilisation in older adults living in long-term residential aged care or the community hospitalised with a fall-related injury.

To examine hospital service use trajectories of people aged ≥ 65years who had a fall injury hospitalisation and were either living in a residential aged care facility (RACF) or the community at the time of the index fall and to identify factors predictive of their trajectory group membership. A group-based trajectory analysis of hospitalisations of people aged ≥ 65years who had a fall injury hospitalisation during 2008-2009 in New South Wales, Australia, was conducted. Linked hospitalisation and RACF data were examined for a 5-year period. Group-based trajectory models were derived based on number of subsequent hospital admissions following the index fall injury hospitalisation. Multinominal logistic regression examined predictors of trajectory group membership. There were 24,729 fall injury hospitalisations; 78.8% of fallers were living in the community and 21.2% in a RACF. Five distinct trajectory groups were identified for community-living and four trajectory groups for RACF residents. Key predictors of trajectory group membership for both community-living and RACF residents were age group, number of comorbidities and dementia status. For RACF residents, depression, assistance with activities of daily living and number of subsequent fall injury admissions were also predictors of group membership, with time to move to a RACF a predictor of group membership for community living. Identifying trajectories of ongoing hospital use informs targeting of strategies to reduce hospital admissions and design of services to allow community-living individuals to remain as long as possible within their own residence.

Asthma exacerbation trajectories and their predictors in children with incident asthma

BackgroundAsthma exacerbation trajectories in children after incident asthma diagnosis are understudied. ObjectiveTo identify trajectories of asthma exacerbation and predictors of these trajectories in children with incident asthma. MethodsChildren from the National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth, Canada, with incident asthma were followed-up for up to 12 years during childhood. Latent class growth modeling was used to identify distinct asthma exacerbation trajectory groups. Multinomial logistic regression was performed to identify predictors of trajectory group membership. ResultsThe mean age at asthma diagnosis among 403 children was 5.9 years. Three distinct trajectories were identified: low increasing (21.3% of children), medium decreasing (45.8% of children), and high decreasing (32.8% of children). Asthma attack probability increased gradually after diagnosis in low increasing group, decreased from moderate level after diagnosis to almost zero probability at the end of follow-up in the medium decreasing group, and decreased after diagnosis but remained higher in the high decreasing group than the other 2 groups at 12 years after diagnosis. Children having more siblings at home were more likely to belong to the medium decreasing and high decreasing trajectory groups, whereas children older at asthma diagnosis were less likely to belong to the medium decreasing and high decreasing trajectory groups than the low increasing trajectory group. ConclusionOur results suggest that children with incident asthma follow 3 distinct trajectories of asthma exacerbations after asthma diagnosis. The trajectory group with initial moderate exacerbation probability has better long-term prognosis.