Predictor Of Recurrent Ischemic Stroke Research Articles

Abstract WP106: Patient Reported Outcomes as Ischemic Stroke and Transient Ischemic Attack Predictors

Introduction: The risk of early stroke recurrence is higher in patients who have experienced a previous event. Multimodal strategies involving the active participation of patients and family members are likely the most effective therapeutic option, the perspective of which can be standardized and validated through Patient-Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs). We aimed to explore the impact of PROMs as predictors of recurrent ischemic stroke and TIA. Methods: A multicenter study based on a prospective cohort of consecutive patients with TIA and ischemic stroke between January 2022 and March 2023. Demographic and clinical data, as well as outcomes from the PROMS program, were collected through the NORA application, including the PROMIS Global Health survey, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), Fatigue Assessment Scale (FAS), and the Morisky-Green Scale (MG) at 30 days. Results: A total of 2589 patients were included, with a mean age of 72 +/- 13.8 years (42% females). Forty-five recurrences were observed with a mean time to recurrence of 257 days. Recurrent patients had a higher history of smoking (33.3% vs 14.8%; p<0.001) and anticoagulant use (33.3% vs 20.8%; p<0.041). Regarding the PROMs, these patients experienced greater fatigue (FAS 24.4 vs 19.69; p<0.031), a lower tendency for therapeutic adherence (MG 14.2% vs 12.5%; p=0.77), and less return to their work (12.5% vs 32.4%; p<0.02). After the second episode, recurrent patients engaged more in surveys (2.46x10 16 vs 2.46x10 16 ) and self-education on stroke (2.44x10 16 vs 1.92x10 16 ) (p<0.01). Hypertension, previous smoking, and lower MG scores independently predicted recurrence (OR=2.72, 95% CI 1.20-6.14; OR 2.65, 95% CI 1.40-4.99; OR 0.33, 95% CI 0.11-1.01). Conclusions: In our series of TIA and minor strokes, assessing PROMs seems to be a potentially effective strategy for identifying key factors to reduce the risk of stroke recurrence and optimize secondary stroke prevention.

Intracranial Spotty Calcium Predicts Recurrent Stroke in Patients with Symptomatic Intracranial Atherosclerotic Stenosis

PurposeAccumulating evidence highlights the association of calcium characteristics and cardiovascular events, but its role in cerebrovascular stenosis has not been well studied. We aimed to investigate the contribution of calcium patterns and density to recurrent ischemic stroke in patients with symptomatic intracranial atherosclerotic stenosis (ICAS).MethodsIn this prospective study, 155 patients with symptomatic ICAS in the anterior circulation were included, and all subjects underwent computed tomography angiography. The median follow-up for all patients was 22 months and recurrent ischemic stroke were recorded. Cox regression analysis was performed to examine whether calcium patterns and density were associated with recurrent ischemic stroke.ResultsDuring the follow-up, 29 patients who experienced recurrent ischemic stroke were older than those without recurrent ischemic stroke (62.93 ± 8.10 years vs. 57.00 ± 12.07 years, p = 0.027). A significantly higher prevalence of intracranial spotty calcium (86.2% vs. 40.5%, p < 0.001) and very low-density intracranial calcium (72.4% vs. 37.3%, p = 0.001) were observed in patients with recurrent ischemic stroke. Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that intracranial spotty calcium, rather than very low-density intracranial calcium, remained an independent predictor of recurrent ischemic stroke (adjusted hazard ratio 5.35, 95% confidence interval 1.32–21.69, p = 0.019).ConclusionIn patients with symptomatic ICAS, intracranial spotty calcium is an independent predictor of recurrent ischemic stroke, which will further facilitate risk stratification and suggest that more aggressive treatment should be considered for these patients.

Association of Alternative Anticoagulation Strategies and Outcomes in Patients With Ischemic Stroke While Taking a Direct Oral Anticoagulant.

Ischemic stroke despite a direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) is increasingly common and portends a high risk of subsequent ischemic stroke. The efficacy and safety of antithrombotic regimens after the condition are unclear. We aimed to compare the outcomes of patients with ischemic stroke despite DOACs with and without an alternative antithrombotic regimen and determine the risk factors of recurrent ischemic stroke while on anticoagulation. In a population-based, propensity score-weighted, retrospective cohort study, we compared the clinical outcomes of DOAC-to-warfarin switch, DOAC-to-DOAC switch (DOACswitch), or addition of antiplatelet agents, with those of unchanged DOAC regimen (DOACsame) among patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) who developed the first ischemic stroke despite a DOAC from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2020, in Hong Kong. The primary outcome was recurrent ischemic stroke. Secondary outcomes were intracranial hemorrhage, acute coronary syndrome, and death. We performed competing risk regression analyses to compare the clinical endpoints and determined the predictors of recurrent ischemic stroke in an unweighted multivariable logistic regression model. During the 6-year study period, among 45,946 patients with AF on a DOAC as stroke prophylaxis, 2,908 patients developed ischemic stroke despite a DOAC. A total of 2,337 patients with NVAF were included in the final analyses. Compared with DOACsame, warfarin (aHR 1.96, 95% CI 1.27-3.02, p = 0.002) and DOACswitch (aHR 1.62, 95% CI 1.25-2.11, p < 0.001) were associated with an increased risk of recurrent ischemic stroke. In the DOACsame group, adjunctive antiplatelet agent was not associated with a reduced risk of recurrent ischemic stroke. Diabetes mellitus, concurrent cytochrome P450/P-glycoprotein (CYP/P-gp) modulators, and large artery atherosclerotic disease (LAD) were predictors of recurrent ischemic stroke. In patients with NVAF with ischemic stroke despite a DOAC, the increased risk of recurrent ischemic stroke with switching to warfarin called for caution against such practice, while the increased ischemic stroke with DOAC-to-DOAC switch demands further studies. Adjunctive antiplatelet agent did not seem to reduce ischemic stroke relapse. Because diabetes mellitus, the use of CYP/P-gp modulators, and LAD were predictors of recurrent ischemic stroke, further investigations should evaluate whether strict glycemic control, DOAC level monitoring, and routine screening for carotid and intracranial atherosclerosis may reduce ischemic stroke recurrence in these patients. This study provides Class II evidence that in patients with NVAF experiencing an ischemic stroke while being treated with a DOAC, continuing treatment with that DOAC is more effective at preventing recurrent ischemic stroke than switching to a different DOAC or to warfarin.

Association of distal hyperintense vessel sign and recurrent stroke in patients with symptomatic intracranial stenosis

ObjectiveThe distal hyperintense vessel sign (DHV) on fluid-attenuated inversion recovery magnetic resonance image (MRI) is an imaging biomarker of slow leptomeningeal collateral flow in the presence of large artery stenosis or occlusion reflecting impaired cerebral hemodynamics. In this study, we aim to investigate the significance of the DHV sign in patients with symptomatic ≥ 70% intracranial atherosclerotic stenosis. MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed patients with ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack admitted to a single center from January 2010 to December 2017. Patients were included if they had symptomatic ≥ 70% atherosclerotic stenosis of the intracranial internal carotid artery or middle cerebral artery. The presence of the DHV sign was evaluated by blinded neuroradiologist and vascular neurologists. Recurrent ischemic stroke in the vascular territory of symptomatic intracranial artery was defined as new neurological deficits with associated neuroimaging findings during the follow up period. ResultsA total of 109 patients were included in the study, of which 55 had DHV sign. Average duration of follow up was 297 ± 326 days. Four patients were lost during follow up. Patients with the DHV sign had a higher rate of recurrent ischemic stroke (38%), compared to patients without the DHV sign (17%; p=0.018). In multivariate regression analysis, the presence of DHV sign was an independent predictor of recurrent ischemic stroke. A DHV score of ≥ 2 had a 63% sensitivity and 69% specificity for recurrent ischemic stroke. InterpretationIn patients with severe symptomatic intracranial atherosclerotic stenosis, those with a DHV sign on MRI are at higher risk of recurrent ischemic stroke.

Diagnostic and Prognostic Value of Left Atrial Function in Identification of Cardioembolism and Prediction of Outcomes in Patients with Cryptogenic Stroke

Stroke of undetermined source, commonly termed cryptogenic stroke (CS), accounts for a significant proportion of ischemic stroke etiology and have high rates of stroke recurrence. The heterogeneous etiology of CS makes decisions regarding treatment for such patients challenging. The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic and prognostic value of left atrial (LA) function in the identification of cardioembolism and prediction of outcomes in patients with CS. Consecutive patients admitted to a tertiary institution with ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) who underwent transthoracic echocardiography were recruited, with comprehensive evaluation of LA metrics including LA strain. Ischemic strokes and TIAs were classified as noncardioembolic, cryptogenic, or cardioembolic. A total of 709 patients (mean age, 66.0±15.1years; 55% men) were recruited. Two hundred ninety-one patients had CS, 189 had noncardioembolic stroke, and 229 had cardioembolic stroke. Patients with CS were followed for 20.0±13.8months for recurrent ischemic stroke or TIA. Receiver operating characteristic curves showed LA reservoir and contractile strain to be strong discriminators of cardioembolic strokes, and log-rank tests showed both measures to be significantly associated with the distribution of time to recurrent ischemic stroke or TIA in patients with CS. Multivariable hazard models showed LA reservoir and contractile strain to be independent predictors of recurrent ischemic stroke or TIA in patients with CS, in addition to estimated glomerular filtration rate and active smoking. LA reservoir and contractile strain were strong discriminators of cardioembolic stroke and independently predicted recurrent ischemic stroke or TIA in patients with CS. Use of LA strain may improve risk stratification and decision-making in patients with CS, with particular regard to prolonged ambulatory heart rhythm monitoring and/or empiric anticoagulation.

FIB-4 index and liver fibrosis are risk factors for long-term outcomes in atrial fibrillation-related stroke

ObjectiveLiver fibrosis (LF) is associated with a poor prognosis in patients with ischemic stroke (IS). We aimed to assess whether LF affects long-term outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation-related stroke or such effects vary according to sex. MethodsWe conducted a multicenter prospective cohort study of Korean patients with atrial fibrillation-related IS. We calculated the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, and LF degree was categorized into two groups (non-advanced vs. advanced) based on the FIB-4 index. Recurrent IS, major adverse cardiac events (MACEs), and all-cause mortality were evaluated using Cox proportional hazard model. ResultsA total of 2897 patients were included; the median age was 75 (interquartile range 68–80) years, and 51.8% were men. The median follow-up period was 16.3 months. Of these patients, 23% had advanced LF indicated by FIB-4 index. Multivariable analysis in all populations demonstrated that the FIB-4 index and advanced LF were significantly associated with MACEs and all-cause mortality but not with recurrent IS. Furthermore, a sex disparity was observed in the outcomes of the patients. A high FIB-4 index in men was a significant predictor of recurrent IS [subdistribution hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 1.08 (1.02–1.14)]. However, the significance of advanced LF disappeared in MACEs in women and in all-cause mortality in men. ConclusionThe FIB-4 index and advanced LF indicated by FIB-4 index are independent prognostic factors for long-term outcomes in Asian patients with atrial fibrillation-related IS. However, these predictors may contribute differently to patient outcomes depending on the sex.

Abstract TP216: Ischemic Stroke In Patients With Cancer Compared To Ischemic Stroke In Patients Without Cancer - A Cohort Study Using Synthetic Data

Background: Patients with cancer are at an increased risk for ischemic stroke (IS) compared to those without cancer. The objectives of this study are 1) to examine risk factors for stroke in cancer and non-cancer patients, and 2) to identify predictive factors for recurrent IS in cancer patients. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study using MDClone, a platform that produces synthetic datasets based on real health system data from the Ottawa Hospital Data Warehouse. We analyzed all subjects with a diagnosis of cancer (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer or primary central nervous system malignancies) and IS within a 2-year period preceding and following their cancer diagnosis, and all IS patients without cancer, from the same time period (2000-2019). Patients were followed until May 2019. A forward selection, stepwise multivariate logistic regression model was used to assess the association between recurrent IS (primary outcome) and baseline characteristics. A sensitivity analysis was performed with only survivors in the cancer cohort. Results: We analyzed 10,875 subjects with IS: 1,250 had cancer and 9,625 did not. In cancer subjects, there was a higher prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (8.4% vs 4.7%), previous IS (1.9% vs 0.1%), and previous venous thromboembolism (VTE) (8.3% vs 1.5%); the prevalence of atrial fibrillation and vascular risk factors was similar between the two groups. Recurrent IS occurred in 11.0% of cancer subjects and 12.1% of non-cancer subjects. In cancer subjects, the only significant predictor of recurrent IS was previous IS (OR 3.8, 95%CI 2.6 - 5.6). A sensitivity analysis of survivors amongst cancer subjects revealed an even stronger relationship between previous IS and recurrent IS (OR 4.4 95%CI 2.7 - 7.0). In the non-cancer subjects, significant predictors for recurrent IS include older age, while hypertension, dyslipidemia, and history of hemorrhagic stroke were negative predictors of recurrent IS. Conclusion: We found cancer patients with IS have a higher prevalence of COPD, previous IS and VTE, and that previous IS is an important predictor of recurrent IS in cancer patients. These results highlight the importance of identifying optimal secondary prevention treatments in cancer patients.

Population-based Study Comparing Predictors of Ischemic Stroke Recurrence After Index Ischemic Stroke in Non-elderly Adults with or without Diabetes.

Background and PurposeFactors associated with ischemic stroke (IS) recurrence and the contribution of pharmacological treatment as secondary preventions among nondiabetics especially in the non-elderly population are unclear and not widely investigated. This was a population-based study that aimed to identify recurrent IS predictors and to determine the possible impact of secondary preventive medications on the IS recurrence in non-elderly adults with or without diabetes.MethodsData of 3386 patients <60 years old who had a history of index IS were extracted from the Malaysian National Neurology Registry (NNEUR) from 2009 to 2016. Recurrent IS was defined as any IS event recorded after the index IS in the NNEUR database. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed by using SPSS version 22.ResultsIschemic heart disease (IHD) was the significant predictor of IS recurrence in non-elderly adults both with or without diabetes (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 3.210; 95%CI: 1.909–5.398 and 2.989; 95%CI: 1.515–5.894) respectively). Receiving antiplatelet as secondary stroke prevention (AOR: 0.194; 95%CI: 0.046–0.817) and continuation of antidiabetic medication after the index IS event (AOR: 0.510; 95%CI: 0.298–0.872) reduced the odds of IS recurrence only in non-elderly diabetic adults. Among non-elderly adults without diabetes, hyperlipidemia and every increased in 1 mmHg of systolic blood pressure significantly increased the odds of IS recurrence following the indexing event (AOR: 1.796; 95%CI: 1.058–3.051 and 1.009; 95%CI: 1.002–1.016 respectively).ConclusionIHD was found as the main predictor of IS recurrence regardless of diabetes status in non-elderly adults after the index IS event. Receiving antidiabetic and antiplatelet medications upon discharge after index IS were significant predictors of recurrent IS in non-elderly diabetic adults. A proper randomized clinical trial may be required to determine the impact of secondary preventive medication on IS recurrence, especially in non-elderly adults.

Arterial Hypertension and Risk of Recurrent Event in Young Ischemic Stroke Patients.

In young patients, the cause of ischemic stroke (IS) remains often cryptogenic despite presence of traditional vascular risk factors (VRFs). Since arterial hypertension (AH) is considered the most important one, we aimed to evaluate the impact of AH and blood pressure (BP) levels after discharge on risk of recurrent IS (RIS) in young patients. The study set consisted of acute IS patients < 50 years of age enrolled in the prospective Heart and Ischemic STrOke Relationship studY registered on ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01541163). Cause of IS was assessed according to the ASCOD classification. Out of 319 enrolled patients <50 years of age (179 males, mean age 41.1 ± 7.8 years), AH was present in 120 (37.6%) of them. No difference was found in the rates of etiological subtypes of IS between patients with and without AH. Patients with AH were older, had more VRF, used more frequently antiplatelets prior IS, and had more RIS (10 vs. 1%, p = 0.002) during a follow-up (FUP) with median of 25 months. Multivariate logistic regression stepwise model showed the prior use of antiplatelets as only predictor of RIS (p = 0.011, OR: 6.125; 95% CI: 1.510-24.837). Patients with elevated BP levels on BP Holter 1 month after discharge did not have increased rate of RIS during FUP (3.8 vs. 1.7%, p = 1.000). AH occurred in 37.6% of young IS patients. Patients with AH had more frequently RIS. Prior use of antiplatelets was found only predictor of RIS in young IS patients with AH.

Association between gender and stoke recurrence in ischemic stroke patients with high-grade carotid artery stenosis

The association between gender and stroke outcome in patients with high-grade internal carotid artery (ICA) stenosis remains unclear. We investigate gender differences in clinical characteristics and outcomes in ischemic stroke patients with high-grade ICA stenosis. Three-hundred and seventy-two acute ischemic stroke patients with high-grade ICA stenosis were enrolled and followed up for 5 years. Demographic features, vascular risk factors, co-morbidities, and outcomes were compared between male and female genders. Two-hundred and seventy-three (73.4%) patients were males and 99 (26.6%) patients were females. The prevalence of diabetes mellitus and atrial fibrillation was higher in females (P = 0.031 and P = 0.043), whereas the prevalence of smoking was higher in males (P < 0.001). The 5-year mortality rate was not different between males and females (P = 0.437), whereas the 5-year recurrent stroke rate was significantly higher in males (OR, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.22–3.75; P = 0.004). After adjusting for the established clinical predictors of adverse outcomes, the multivariate Cox regression revealed that male gender is a significant predictor of recurrent ischemic stroke (HR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.19–3.20; P = 0.008). In conclusion, male gender is associated with increased risk of recurrent ischemic stroke in patients with high-grade ICA stenosis during 5-year follow-up. Further prospective trial to assess whether male gender may benefit from more aggressive vascular risk factors control and treatment strategies for stroke prevention is warranted.

Predictors of Recurrent Ischemic Stroke in Patients with Embolic Strokes of Undetermined Source and Effects of Rivaroxaban Versus Aspirin According to Risk Status: The NAVIGATE ESUS Trial

Background: Embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) identifies patients with cryptogenic ischemic stroke presumed due to embolism from several unidentified sources. Among patients with recent ESUS, we sought to determine independent predictors of recurrent ischemic stroke during treatment with aspirin or rivaroxaban and to assess the relative effects of these treatments according to risk. Methods: Exploratory analyses of 7213 participants in the NAVIGATE ESUS international trial who were randomized to aspirin 100 mg/day or rivaroxaban 15 mg/day and followed for a median of 11 months, during which time there were 309 first recurrent ischemic strokes (4.6% per year). Baseline features were correlated with recurrent stroke by multivariate analysis. Results: The 7 independent predictors of recurrent stroke were stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) prior to the qualifying stroke (hazard ratio [HR] 2.03 95% confidence internal [CI] 1.58-2.60), current tobacco user (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.24-2.12), age (HR 1.02 per year increase, 95%CI 1.01-1.03), diabetes (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.01-1.64), multiple acute infarcts on neuroimaging (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.09-2.02), aspirin use prior to qualifying stroke (HR 1.34, 95% CI 1.02-1.70), and time from qualifying stroke to randomization (HR .98, 95% CI .97-.99). The rate of recurrent stroke rate was 2.6% per year for participants without any of these risk factors, and increased by an average of 45% for each independent predictor (P < .001). There were no significant interactions between treatment effects and independent stroke predictors or stroke risk status. Conclusions: In this large cohort of ESUS patients, several features including prior stroke or TIA, advanced age, current tobacco user, multiple acute infarcts on neuroimaging, and diabetes independently identified those with an increased risk of ischemic stroke recurrence. The relative effects of rivaroxaban and aspirin were similar across the spectrum of independent stroke predictors and recurrent stroke risk status.

Abstract TP75: Distal Hyperintense Vessel Sign on FLAIR as a Predictor of Recurrent Stroke in Intracranial Arterial Stenosis

Introduction: The distal hyperintensity vessel (DHV) on FLAIR images is a linear/serpentine shaped hyperintensity that is seen not infrequently in acute ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA). Previous studies reported that DHV could predict large vessel occlusion or stenosis and correlate with outcome. The purpose of this study is to evaluate whether presence of DHV is associated with high risk of recurrent ischemic stroke in symptomatic intracranial atherosclerotic severe stenosis. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed patients who presented with ischemic stroke or TIA to a University-affiliated Comprehensive Stroke Center from 2010 to 2015. Patients with etiology due to 70-99% atherosclerosis stenosis of intracranial carotid artery or middle cerebral artery were enrolled. Patients with atrial fibrillation or other cardiac embolism, ipsilateral extracranial carotid artery &gt; 50% stenosis, artery dissection, hypercoagulation state, Moyamoya or other non-atherosclerotic vasculopathy were excluded. FLAIR images were reviewed by two neuroradiologists and one vascular neurologist for the presence of DHV. A quantitative scoring system of maximum 7 based on ASPECTS distribution is applied to grade the extent of DHV. The primary measure is ischemic stroke in the territory of qualifying artery during follow up. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were used to identify predictors of recurrent ischemic stroke. Results: Out of 106 patients enrolled, 53 (50%) were found to have DHV (median score of 3.03 ± 1.47). There were more non-whites in DHV group than in non-DHV group (p=0.0314). During follow up, 17 (32%) patients in DHV group had recurrent ischemic stroke compared to 6 (11%) patients in non-DHV group (p=0.0087). The presence of DHV was the only factor associated with recurrent ischemic stroke with OR of 3.074 (95% CI 1.079 - 8.761, p=0.036) by multivariate logistic regression. There is a tendency of high risk of recurrent ischemic stroke for high DHV score with Pearson Correlation R value of 0.7. Conclusions: The presence of DHV is associated with higher risk of recurrent ischemic stroke in symptomatic intracranial atherosclerotic severe stenosis. Confirmation of this finding in large prospective studies is needed.

Clinical and Imaging Predictors of Recurrent Ischemic Stroke: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Predictors of recurrent ischemic stroke are less well known in patients with a recent ischemic stroke than in patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA). We identified clinical and radiological factors for predicting recurrent ischemic stroke in patients with recent ischemic stroke. Methods: A systematic search in PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and CINAHL was performed with the terms “ischemic stroke,” “predictors/determinants,” and “recurrence.” Quality assessment of the articles was performed and the level of evidence was graded for the articles included for the meta-analysis. Pooled risk ratios (RR) and heterogeneity (I²) were calculated using inverse variance random effects models. Results: Ten articles with high-quality results were identified for meta-analysis. Past medical history of stroke or TIA was a predictor of recurrent ischemic stroke (pooled RR 2.5, 95% CI 2.1–3.1). Small vessel strokes were associated with a lower risk of recurrence than large vessel strokes (pooled RR 0.3, 95% CI 0.1–0.7). Patients with stroke of an undetermined cause had a lower risk of recurrence than patients with large artery atherosclerosis (pooled RR 0.5, 95% CI 0.2–1.1). We found no studies using CT or ultrasound for the prediction of recurrent ischemic stroke. The following MRI findings were predictors of recurrent ischemic stroke: multiple lesions (pooled RR 1.7, 95% CI 1.5–2.0), multiple stage lesions (pooled RR 4.1, 95% CI 3.1–5.5), multiple territory lesions (pooled RR 2.9, 95% CI 2.0–4.2), chronic infarcts (pooled RR 1.5, 95% CI 1.2–1.9), and isolated cortical lesions (pooled RR 2.2, 95% CI 1.5–3.2). Conclusions: In patients with a recent ischemic stroke, a history of stroke or TIA and the subtype large artery atherosclerosis are associated with an increased risk of recurrent ischemic stroke. Predictors evaluated with MRI include multiple ischemic changes and isolated cortical lesions. Predictors of recurrent ischemic stroke concerning CT or ultrasound have not been published.

One-Year Incidence, Time Trends, and Predictors of Recurrent Ischemic Stroke in Sweden From 1998 to 2010: An Observational Study.

Recent data on the incidence, time trends, and predictors of recurrent ischemic stroke are limited for unselected patient populations. Data for ischemic stroke patients were obtained from The Swedish Stroke Register (Riksstroke) between 1998 and 2009 and merged with The Swedish National Inpatient Register. A reference group of patients was created by Statistics Sweden. The ischemic stroke patient cohort was divided into 4 time periods. Recurrent ischemic stroke within 1 year was recorded until 2010. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were performed to study time trends and predictors of ischemic stroke recurrence. Of 196 765 patients with ischemic stroke, 11.3% had a recurrent ischemic stroke within 1 year. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of the 1-year cumulative incidence of recurrent ischemic stroke decreased from 15.0% in 1998 to 2001 to 12.0% in 2007 to 2010 in the stroke patient cohort while the cumulative incidence of ischemic stroke decreased from 0.7% to 0.4% in the reference population. Age >75 years, prior ischemic stroke or myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation without warfarin treatment, diabetes mellitus, and treatment with β-blockers or diuretics were associated with a higher risk while warfarin treatment for atrial fibrillation, lipid-lowering medication, and antithrombotic treatment (acetylsalicylic acid, dipyridamole) were associated with a reduced risk of recurrent ischemic stroke. The risk of recurrent ischemic stroke decreased from 1998 to 2010. Well-known risk factors for stroke were associated with a higher risk of ischemic stroke recurrence; whereas, secondary preventive medication was associated with a reduced risk, emphasizing the importance of secondary preventive treatment.

Increased pulse wave velocity in patients with acute lacunar infarction doubled the risk of future ischemic stroke.

The aim of this study was to determine whether pulse wave velocity (PWV), a marker of vascular endothelial impairment and arteriosclerosis, predicts future ischemic stroke in patients who developed acute lacunar infarction. Patients with a first-ever ischemic stroke due to acute lacunar infarction were enrolled in this study. An oscillometric device (Form PWV/ABI; Omron Colin, Tokyo, Japan) was used to measure brachial-ankle PWV 1 week after stroke onset. Patients were followed for at least 5 years. The main end point of the study was recurrent ischemic stroke. Event-free survival was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier plots and log-rank tests. The risk of recurrent ischemic stroke was estimated using the Cox proportional-hazards model. Of the 156 patients (61% male, mean age: 69.2±11.3 years) assessed in this study, 29 developed recurrent ischemic stroke. The median brachial-ankle PWV value was 20.4 m s-1. Patients with high PWV values had a greater risk of recurrent ischemic stroke than patients with low PWV values (28% vs. 15%, P=0.08). Kaplan-Meier curve analysis showed that patients with high PWV values had a less favorable (that is, free of recurrent ischemic stroke) survival time (P=0.015). A multivariate Cox proportional-hazards model identified high PWV as an independent predictor of recurrent ischemic stroke after adjusting for age, sex and blood pressure (hazard ratio 2.35, 95% confidence interval, 1.02-5.70, P=0.044). In patients with acute lacunar infarction, a high PWV predicts a twofold greater risk of future ischemic stroke, independent of patient age, sex and blood pressure levels.

Association between methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) polymorphism and carotid intima medial thickness progression in post ischaemic stroke patient.

Hyperhomocysteinemia is associated with an increased risk of atherosclerosis. The main cause of elevated levels of homocysteine is 677T allele, the gene encoded by methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR). Carotid atherosclerosis progression, which can be measured by examination of carotid intima-media thickness (C-IMT), is a predictor of recurrent ischemic stroke. The objective of this study was to determine a relationship between MTHFR polymorphism, homocysteine ​​levels, and increased C-IMT in post- ischemic stroke patients. This was an epidemiological prospective observational cohort study involving 71 patients with post-ischemic stroke subject of the first (onset 1 month) admitted in the Neurology Clinic of Kariadi Hospital during 2012 to 2013. C-IMT was examined using carotid duplex ultrasound at 1(st), 6(th), and 12(th) month after stroke onset. MTHFR gene polymorphism was examined using polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphisms (PCR-RFLP). Homocysteine level was measured using Axis(®) Homocysteine EIA. We found 3 categories of MTHFR gene variation, i.e., 677T/T, 677T/C, and 677C/C. The most frequent allele was MTHFR 677C (88.9%), while the MTHFR 677T allele frequency was 11.1%. The majority allele of the subject population was 677C/C, however, there were 3 subjects (4.2%) who had 677T/T allele. The 677T/T allele group had normal homocysteine level and the lowest mean C-IMT among others. This study supports that the MTHFR 677T allele polymorphism is not associated with hyperhomocysteinemia as well as an increase in C-IMT in post ischemic stroke patients.

Long term outcome and predictors of ischemic stroke recurrence in adult moyamoya disease

ObjectiveWe sought to identify the clinical outcome and predictors for ischemic stroke recurrence in adults with symptomatic moyamoya disease (MMD). MethodsWe analyzed 104 adult MMD patients with ischemic stroke or TIA registered at our institution. All patients underwent digital subtraction angiography and single photon emission computed tomography to measure disease severity and cerebral vascular reserve (CVR). A Cox regression model was used to identify predictors of recurrent ischemic stroke. ResultsFifty-nine patients were non-surgically treated and 45 patients were surgically treated. In the non-surgical group, the Kaplan–Meier estimate of ischemic stroke recurrence was 1.6% in the first year and 11.8% in the 5th year. Hypertension (hazard ratio [HR]=0.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.01–0.99), diabetes (HR=35.16, 95% CI 2.61–474.16), presence of steno-occlusive lesion in posterior cerebral arteries (HR=17.53, 95% CI 2.02–152.43), and extended or global decreased CVR (HR=13.62, 95% CI 1.55–119.84) were independent predictors of recurrence. In the surgical group, the Kaplan–Meier estimate of ischemic stroke recurrence was 24.4% in the first year and 24.4% in the 5th year. Half of the recurred patients experienced recurrent ischemic strokes postoperatively. Diabetes was the only predictor of recurrent ischemic stroke (HR=6.17, 95% CI 1.31–29.14). ConclusionsIn non-surgically treated MMD, PCA stenosis and CVR were identified as predictors of ischemic stroke recurrence. Diabetes was an independent predictor of recurrent ischemic stroke in both non-surgical and surgically treated MMD groups.

Predictors of Recurrent Events in Patients With Cryptogenic Stroke and Patent Foramen Ovale Within the CLOSURE I (Evaluation of the STARFlex Septal Closure System in Patients With a Stroke and/or Transient Ischemic Attack Due to Presumed Paradoxical Embolism Through a Patent Foramen Ovale) Trial

ObjectivesThis study sought to identify predictors of recurrent ischemic neurologic events within the CLOSURE I (Evaluation of the STARFlex Septal Closure System in Patients With a Stroke and/or Transient Ischemic Attack Due to Presumed Paradoxical Embolism Through a Patent Foramen Ovale) trial. BackgroundThe CLOSURE I trial found that transcatheter patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure using the STARFlex device was not superior to medical therapy in patients with cryptogenic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) and PFO. MethodsThe CLOSURE I trial is a multicenter, randomized trial of transcatheter PFO closure compared with medical therapy in patients who presented with cryptogenic stroke or TIA and had a PFO. We identified clinical predictors of recurrent ischemic stroke or TIA during 2 years of follow-up using Cox proportional hazards regression within the pooled intention-to-treat cohort. ResultsIn 909 patients, the incidence of recurrent events was 5.7% with 25 patients suffering a recurrent stroke and 30 a TIA. Patients who had a recurrent event had higher body mass index (30.2 ± 6.2 vs. 28.3 ± 5.8%; p = 0.03) and more frequently had diabetes (19.2% vs. 7.1%; p = 0.0016), hypertension (46.2% vs. 30.1%; p = 0.015), and ischemic heart disease (3.8% vs. 0.9%; p = 0.05). Diabetes (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.39; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.69 to 6.84; p = 0.0007), index TIA (HR vs. stroke: 2.13; 95% CI: 1.20 to 3.80; p = 0.01), and the detection of atrial fibrillation after study enrollment (HR: 4.85; 95% CI: 2.05 to 11.47; p = 0.0003) independently predicted recurrent ischemic neurologic events. Recurrent neurologic events were more frequent in subjects with RoPE (Risk of Paradoxical Embolism) score ≤5 than those with >5 (14.5% vs. 4.2%; p < 0.0001). ConclusionsThese findings suggest an alternative etiology to paradoxical embolism was frequently responsible for recurrent events within the CLOSURE I trial. (Evaluation of the STARFlex Septal Closure System in Patients With a Stroke or TIA Due to the Possible Passage of a Clot of Unknown Origin Through a Patent Foramen Ovale (PFO) [CLOSURE I]; NCT00201461)

Predictors of Recurrent Stroke in Patients With Symptomatic Intracranial Arterial Stenosis

Our goal was to investigate whether initial ischemic lesion pattern can predict stroke recurrence in patients with symptomatic intracranial arterial stenosis. Of the Trial of Cilostazol in Symptomatic Intracranial Arterial Stenosis (TOSS)-2 trial participants, we included patients who underwent diffusion-weighted imaging and fluid attenuation inversion recovery imaging at baseline with a follow-up fluid attenuation inversion recovery imaging at 7 months. Based on the diffusion-weighted imaging findings, we classified the initial ischemic lesion patterns according to location (subcortical versus cortical versus subcorticocortical) and multiplicity (single versus multiple). We also evaluated the occurrence of new ischemic lesions on follow-up fluid attenuation inversion recovery as well as clinical stroke in the symptomatic intracranial arterial stenosis territory. Of 353 patients included in this study, 44 (12.5%) and 13 (3.7%) patients had new ischemic lesions and clinical recurrent stroke in the initial symptomatic intracranial arterial stenosis territory, respectively. On multivariable analysis, the initial lesion patterns of subcorticocortical and multiple lesions were independent predictors of new ischemic lesions in the symptomatic intracranial arterial stenosis territory (OR, 3.01; 95% CI, 1.33-7.01; P=0.03; OR, 2.81; 95% CI, 1.34-5.9; P=0.006). These patterns also predicted clinical recurrent stroke. Subcorticocortical lesions and multiple lesions are radiological predictors of recurrent ischemic stroke in symptomatic patients with intracranial arterial stenosis. Clinical Trial Registration- URL: www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00130039.

E112 Parenting a deaf child and coping with stress

Background: Embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) identifies patients with cryptogenic ischemic stroke presumed due to embolism from several unidentified sources. Among patients with recent ESUS, we sought to determine independent predictors of recurrent ischemic stroke during treatment with aspirin or rivaroxaban and to assess the relative effects of these treatments according to risk. Methods: Exploratory analyses of 7213 participants in the NAVIGATE ESUS international trial who were randomized to aspirin 100 mg/day or rivaroxaban 15 mg/day and followed for a median of 11 months, during which time there were 309 first recurrent ischemic strokes (4.6% per year). Baseline features were correlated with recurrent stroke by multivariate analysis. Results: The 7 independent predictors of recurrent stroke were stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) prior to the qualifying stroke (hazard ratio [HR] 2.03 95% confidence internal [CI] 1.58-2.60), current tobacco user (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.24-2.12), age (HR 1.02 per year increase, 95%CI 1.01-1.03), diabetes (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.01-1.64), multiple acute infarcts on neuroimaging (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.09-2.02), aspirin use prior to qualifying stroke (HR 1.34, 95% CI 1.02-1.70), and time from qualifying stroke to randomization (HR .98, 95% CI .97-.99). The rate of recurrent stroke rate was 2.6% per year for participants without any of these risk factors, and increased by an average of 45% for each independent predictor (P < .001). There were no significant interactions between treatment effects and independent stroke predictors or stroke risk status. Conclusions: In this large cohort of ESUS patients, several features including prior stroke or TIA, advanced age, current tobacco user, multiple acute infarcts on neuroimaging, and diabetes independently identified those with an increased risk of ischemic stroke recurrence. The relative effects of rivaroxaban and aspirin were similar across the spectrum of independent stroke predictors and recurrent stroke risk status.