Predictors Of Long-term Opioid Use Research Articles

1081 Risk Factors for Long Term Opioid Use After Elective Lumbar Spine Surgery: A MSSIC Study

INTRODUCTION: Long-term opioid use after elective lumbar spine surgery is a significant concern, given the current opioid epidemic and its impact on public health. Identifying risk factors for long-term opioid use after spine surgery is crucial in developing effective interventions to reduce the incidence of opioid dependence in this patient population. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of patient data was conducted using the Michigan Spine Surgery Improvement Collaborative (MSSIC) registry. Patients who underwent elective lumbar spine surgery between March 2018, and September 2021, were included, resulting in a total of 3599 patients at one year and 966 patients at two years follow-up. Poisson generalized estimating equation models were used for multivariate analyses. RESULTS: A total of 493 (13.7%) and 137 (14.2%) patients were still using opiates at one-year and two-years post-surgery respectively. Discharge morphine milligram equivalents (MMEs), baseline PROMIS PF functional scores, baseline pain scores, age, gender, education level, pre-operative opioid use, and not achieving the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) in PROMIS PF scores at follow-up were significantly associated with long-term opioid use. Specifically, pre-operative opioid use had the strongest association with opioid use at one year (IRR = 2.83, CI: 2.40-3.34, p < 0.001) and two years (IRR = 3.79, CI: 2.53-5.68, p < 0.001). Additionally, not achieving MCID in PROMIS scores at follow-up was strongly associated (IRR = 2.00, CI: 1.72-2.32, p < 0.001 and IRR = 2.18, CI: 1.64-2.91, p < 0.001) with opioid use at both time points (1-year and 2-year respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Pre-operative opioid use and not achieving MCID in PROMIS scores at follow-up were the strongest predictors of long-term opioid use after elective lumbar spine surgery. Identifying these risk factors can help clinicians target interventions to reduce opioid use in at-risk patients and improve postoperative outcomes.

Long-term postoperative opioid use in orthopaedic patients.

The prevalence of long-term opioid use after orthopaedic surgery varies from 1.4% to 24% and has mostly been studied with prescription data, making it difficult to estimate the size and impact of the problem. This study aims to assess the prevalence and predictors of long-term postoperative opioid use in a high volume and tertiary orthopaedic centre by using online patient reported measures. This Dutch prospective cohort study was conducted among adult patients who underwent any type of orthopaedic surgery from June to August 2021. Six months after surgery patients were invited to complete an online survey on current opioid use and patients' willingness to taper opioids. The demographics, clinical factors and preoperative opioid use were extracted from the patient file. In total, 607 patients (mean age 61.2 years, 63.4% female) completed the survey. Seventy-six patients (12.5%) used opioids 6 months after surgery of which 20 (3.3%) did not use opioids before surgery. The median (Q1-Q3) postoperative daily dose after 6 months was 29.9 mg (10.0-76.1) morphine equivalents. Most of them (88.2%) wanted to taper opioids. Affected body region (OR's: 6.84-12.75) and pre-operative opioid use (OR = 35.33) were significant predictors of long-term opioid use. The prevalence of long-term postoperative opioid use was 12.5%; one in thirty patients became a new long-term opioid user. Pre-operative opioid use and affected body region were predictive for long-term opioid use. These findings, together with the observation that long-term opioid users want to taper opioids, emphasize the relevance of prevention, recognition and tapering support in the perioperative setting. Level II. Short-term opioid use can unintentionally progress to long-term opioid use. The prevalence of long-term opioid use after orthopaedic surgery varies widely and is mostly prescription-based, making it difficult to estimate the magnitude of the problem. This study assessed long-term postoperative opioid use in a full breadth orthopaedic population using patient reported measures, making conclusions much more robust. The prevalence of long-term postoperative opioid use in this study was 12.5%.

Prevalence and predictors of long-term opioid use following orthopaedic surgery in an Australian setting: A multicentre, prospective cohort study.

Opioid analgesics prescribed for the management of acute pain following orthopaedic surgery may lead to unintended long-term opioid use and associated patient harms. This study aimed to examine the prevalence of opioid use at 90 days after elective orthopaedic surgery across major city, regional and rural locations in New South Wales, Australia. We conducted a prospective, observational cohort study of patients undergoing elective orthopaedic surgery at five hospitals from major city, regional, rural, public and private settings between April 2017 and February 2020. Data were collected by patient questionnaire at the pre-admission clinic 2-6 weeks before surgery and by telephone call after 90 days following surgery. Of the 361 participants recruited, 54% (195/361) were women and the mean age was 67.7 years (standard deviation 10.1 years). Opioid use at 90 or more days after orthopaedic surgery was reported by 15.8% (57/361; 95% confidence interval (CI) 12.2-20%) of all participants and ranged from 3.5% (2/57) at a major city location to 37.8% (14/37) at an inner regional location. Predictors of long-term postoperative opioid use in the multivariable analysis were surgery performed at an inner regional location (adjusted odds ratio 12.26; 95% CI 2.2-68.24) and outer regional location (adjusted odds ratio 5.46; 95% CI 1.09-27.50) after adjusting for known covariates. Long-term opioid use was reported in over 15% of patients following orthopaedic surgery and appears to be more prevalent in regional locations in Australia.

Prevalence and Predictors of Long-term Opioid Use After Pelvic Fractures.

Opioids are effective in short-term pain treatment; however, their long-term effectiveness is unconfirmed. Many patients are exposed to opioids after pelvic injuries with little known about persistent use afterward. We assessed the prevalence and predictors of long-term opioid use following pelvic fractures. This retrospective study enrolled 277 patients with acute pelvic fractures over five years. Daily and total morphine milligram equivalents (MME) were calculated. The primary outcome was long-term opioid use (LOU) defined as ongoing opioid use 60-90days post-discharge. The secondary outcome was intermediate-term opioid use (IOU) defined as ongoing opioid use 30-60days post-discharge. Univariable and logistic regression analyses were performed. Median (interquartile range) total inpatient opioid MME was 422 (157-1667) with a median daily MME of 69 (26-145). Long-term opioid use occurred in 16%, and IOU occurred in 29%. Univariable analysis found that total and daily inpatient opioid use were each significantly associated with LOU (median MME, 1241 vs 371; median MMEs, 127.7 vs 59.2, respectively) and IOU (median MME, 1140 vs 326; median MMEs, 111.8 vs 57.9, respectively). Logistic regression analysis found daily inpatient MME ≥50 (odds ratio [OR] 3.027, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.059-8.652]) and pelvic fracture type (Tile B/C) (OR 2.992 [CI 1.324-6.763])were independent predictors of LOU. Total and daily inpatient opioid use were significantly associated with LOU and IOU. Patients who received ≥50 MME/inpatient day had a higher likelihood of LOU. This study seeks to inform clinical decisions for pain management to prevent adverse outcomes.

Incidence and risk factors for prolonged postoperative opioid use following lumbar spine surgery: a cohort study.

Sustained postoperative opioid use after elective surgery is a matter of growing concern. Herein, the authors investigated incidence and predictors of long-term opioid use among patients undergoing elective lumbar spine surgery, especially as a function of opioid prescribing practices at postoperative discharge (dose in morphine milligram equivalents [MMEs] and type of opioid). The OptumLabs Data Warehouse (OLDW) was queried for postdischarge opioid prescriptions for patients undergoing elective lumbar decompression and discectomy (LDD) or posterior lumbar fusion (PLF) for degenerative spine disease. Only patients who received an opioid prescription at postoperative discharge and those who had a minimum of 180 days of insurance coverage prior to surgery and 180 days after surgery were included. Opioid-naive patients were defined as those who had no opioid fills in 180 days prior to surgery. The following patterns of long-term postoperative use were investigated: additional fills (at least one opioid fill 90-180 days after surgery), persistent fills (any span of opioid use starting in the 180 days after surgery and lasting at least 90 days), and Consortium to Study Opioid Risks and Trends (CONSORT) criteria for persistent use (episodes of opioid prescribing lasting longer than 90 days and 120 or more total days' supply or 10 or more prescriptions in 180 days after the index fill). Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify predictors of long-term use. A total of 25,587 patients were included, of whom 52.7% underwent PLF (n = 13,486) and 32.5% (n = 8312) were opioid-naive prior to surgery. The rates of additional fills, persistent fills, and CONSORT use were 47%, 30%, and 23%, respectively, after PLF and 35.4%, 19%, and 14.2%, respectively, after LDD. The rates among opioid-naive patients were 18.9%, 5.6%, and 2.5% respectively, after PLF and 13.3%, 2.0%, and 0.8%, respectively, after LDD. Using multivariable logistic regression, the following were identified to be significantly associated with higher risk of long-term opioid use following PLF: discharge opioid prescription ≥ 500 MMEs, prescription of a long-acting opioid, female sex, multilevel surgery, and comorbidities such as depression and drug abuse (all p < 0.05). Elderly (age ≥ 65 years) and opioid-naive patients were found to be at lower risk (all p < 0.05). Similar results were obtained on analysis for LDD with the following significant additional risk factors identified: discharge opioid prescription ≥ 400 MMEs, prescription of tramadol alone at discharge, and inpatient surgery (all p < 0.05). In an analysis of pharmacy claims from a national insurance database, the authors identified incidence and predictors of long-term opioid use after elective lumbar spine surgery.

Predictors of long-term opioid use and opioid use disorder among construction workers: Analysis of claims data.

Construction workers have high rates of work-related musculoskeletal disorders, which lead to frequent opioid use and opioid use disorder (OUD). This paper quantified the incidence of opioid use and OUD among construction workers with and without musculoskeletal disorders. We conducted a retrospective study using union health claims from January 2015 to June 2018 from 19,909 construction workers. Claims for diagnoses of chronic musculoskeletal disorders, acute musculoskeletal injuries, musculoskeletal surgery, and other conditions were linked to new opioid prescriptions. We examined the effects of high doses (≥50 morphine mg equivalents per day), large supply (more than 7 days per fill), long-term opioid use (60 or more days supplied within a calendar quarter), and musculoskeletal disorders, on the odds of a future OUD. There were high rates (42.8% per year) of chronic musculoskeletal disorders among workers, of whom 24.1% received new opioid prescriptions and 6.3% received long-term opioid prescriptions per year. Workers receiving opioids for chronic musculoskeletal disorders had the highest odds of future OUD: 4.71 (95% confidence interval 3.09-7.37); workers prescribed long-term opioids in any calendar quarter had a nearly 10-fold odds of developing an OUD. Among construction workers, opioids initiated for musculoskeletal pain were strongly associated with incident long-term opioid use and OUD. Musculoskeletal pain from physically demanding work is likely one driver of the opioid epidemic in occupations like construction. Prevention of work injuries and alternative pain management are needed for workers at risk for musculoskeletal injuries.

Predictors of Long-term Opioid Use After Elective Primary Total Shoulder Arthroplasty

Opioids are prescribed routinely for pain after total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA). This study was designed to characterize opioid use after elective primary TSA and identify predictors of long-term postoperative opioid use. The authors used the MarketScan administrative claims database to identify 5676 adults who underwent elective primary TSA between 2010 and 2015 and had 1 year or more of continuous insurance enrollment, including prescription drug coverage, postoperatively. Long-term postoperative opioid use was defined as filling prescriptions totaling a 120-day or greater supply during the 3- to 12-month postoperative period. The authors performed univariate regression analysis with age, sex, US region, anatomic or reverse TSA, anxiety, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, congestive heart failure, depression, diabetes, history of drug abuse, hypertension, obesity, osteoporosis, history of myocardial infarction, and current tobacco use. Variables that were significant at P<.05 were included in multivariate logistic regression. Overall, 16% of patients had long-term postoperative opioid use, which was strongly predicted by the multivariate model (area under the curve, 0.77; P<.001). The strongest predictors in the multivariate analysis were preoperative opioid use (odds ratio [OR], 4.7; 95% CI, 4.0-5.5), history of drug abuse (OR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.3-4.9), depression (OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.6-2.3), anxiety (OR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.2-1.7), surgery performed in the Western United States (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.3-2.4), and reverse TSA (OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.2-1.8). Most patients do not have long-term opioid use after elective primary TSA. Strong predictors of long-term postoperative opioid use are preoperative opioid use, history of drug abuse, depression, anxiety, reverse TSA, and surgery performed in the Western United States. [Orthopedics. 2021;44(1):58-63.].

A predictive-modeling based screening tool for prolonged opioid use after surgical management of low back and lower extremity pain

BACKGROUND CONTEXTOutpatient postoperative pain management in spine patients, specifically involving the use of opioids, demonstrates significant variability. PURPOSEUsing preoperative risk factors and 30-day postoperative opioid prescribing patterns, we developed models for predicting long-term opioid use in patients after elective spine surgery. STUDY DESIGN/SETTINGThis retrospective cohort study utilizes inpatient, outpatient, and pharmaceutical data from MarketScan databases (Truven Health). PATIENT SAMPLEIn all, 19,317 patients who were newly diagnosed with low back or lower extremity pain (LBP or LEP) between 2008 and 2015 and underwent thoracic or lumbar surgery within 1 year after diagnosis were enrolled. Some patients initiated opioids after diagnosis but all patients were opioid-naïve before the diagnosis. OUTCOME MEASURESLong-term opioid use was defined as filling ≥180 days of opioids within one year after surgery. METHODSUsing demographic variables, medical and psychiatric comorbidities, preoperative opioid use, and 30-day postoperative opioid use, we generated seven models on 80% of the dataset and tested the models on the remaining 20%. We used three regression-based models (full logistic regression, stepwise logistic regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), support vector machine, two tree-based models (random forest, stochastic gradient boosting), and time-varying convolutional neural network. Area under the curve (AUC), Brier index, sensitivity, and calibration curves were used to assess the discrimination and calibration of the models. RESULTSWe identified 903 (4.6%) of patients who met criteria for long-term opioid use. The regression-based models demonstrated the highest AUC, ranging from 0.835 to 0.847, and relatively high sensitivities, predicting between 74.9% and 76.5% of the long-term opioid use patients in the test dataset. The three strongest positive predictors of long-term opioid use were high preoperative opioid use (OR 2.70; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.27–3.22), number of days with active opioid prescription between postoperative days 15 to 30 (OR 1.10; 95%CI 1.07–1.12), and number of dosage increases between postoperative day 15 to 30 (OR 1.71, 95%CI 1.41–2.08). The strongest negative predictors were number of dosage decreases in the 30-day postoperative period. CONCLUSIONSWe evaluated several predictive models for postoperative long-term opioid use in a large cohort of patients with LBP or LEP who underwent surgery. A regression-based model with high sensitivity and AUC is provided online to screen patients for high risk of long-term opioid use based on preoperative risk factors and opioid prescription patterns in the first 30 days after surgery. It is hoped that this work will improve identification of patients at high risk of prolonged opioid use and enable early intervention and counseling.

84. Incidence and predictors of long-term opioid use following cervical spine fusion surgery

BACKGROUND CONTEXT Over the past 10 years, opioid expenditures for spine-related pain increased dramatically in USA. Orthopedic surgery has been reported as the third highest opioid-prescribing specialty, in patients older than 40 years old. PURPOSE The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of opioid use (OU) following cervical spine fusion surgery, and to identify the predictors of prolonged opioid use at 3 months, 6 months and 12 months following surgery. STUDY DESIGN/SETTING A retrospective cohort study at University of Missouri hospitals. PATIENT SAMPLE All patients who underwent cervical arthrodesis for degenerative cervical spine disease over 7 years, between 2010 and 2016, who had at least one year of postoperative follow up at the University of Missouri hospitals. OUTCOME MEASURES Incidence of pre- and postoperative opioid prescriptions and predictors of long-term postoperative opioid use. METHODS Patients’ medical records were examined to collect data on the following: patient's characteristics (age, sex, race, monthly income, occupation, BMI, smoking behavior, comorbidities) associated pain measures (pre/postoperative VAS), ASA score, and pre/postoperative OU. Logistic regression analyses were applied to identify the predictors of prolonged OU at intervals following surgery. Significance was considered at p RESULTS Opioid use was shown in 46.9% of patients before operation, of whom 68.1%, 60.9%, and 50.7% remained on OU at 3, 6 and 12 months following surgery. Incidences of postoperative OU were 50%, 42.5% and 30.2% at 3, 6 and 12 months. Preoperative use was significantly associated with postoperative use at 3 months (X 2 =18.2, p CONCLUSIONS Perioperative opioid prescription for patients with cervical spine fusion is quite common. Minimizing preoperative opioid use should be investigated as a way to mitigate long–term OU. FDA DEVICE/DRUG STATUS This abstract does not discuss or include any applicable devices or drugs.

LONG TERM opioid use in RURAL NON-metastatic colon cancer patients.

e15174 Background: Cancer related pain and subsequent long-term opioid (LTO) use worsens the opioid epidemic and facilitates abuse. Non-metastatic colon cancer (CC) is a potentially curable malignancy and prescription opioid (PO) may increase risks of adverse events when CC has been eradicated. Methods: A retrospective study evaluated stage I-III CC patients between January 2013 and January 2018 across rural cancer clinics in New Mexico who received PO during their cancer diagnosis and treatment. It excluded patients with stage IV CC, concurrent malignancies and non-cancer pain. Descriptive statistics, Chi-square and logistic regression were performed to identify correlation and predictors of LTO use. Results: Among 197 patients identified, opioids were prescribed in 24% (48/197); 22 patients met inclusion criteria. Mean age was 65.1±9.8 years; 68% male; Stage I (4.5%), II (36.3%), III (59.1%). Adjuvant chemotherapy was given in 91% (20/22). Oxaliplatin regimen was used in 63.6% (14/22). One year after therapy, 27.3% (6/22) still had neuropathy. The rate of opioid use was 72.7% (16/22) at 3 months, 54.5% (12/22) at 6 months and 41% (9/22) at 12 months; 56.2% (9/16) of opioid users at 3 months were also using opioids at 12 months from initial prescription (X2 5.71 p = 0.046). Also, 75% (9/12) of opioid users at 6 months, continued using opioids at 12 months (X2 12.7 p = 0.0001). Patients with smoking history, unemployed and PO from a surgeon, were more likely to be LTO users at 12 months; however, it was not statistically significant. Conclusions: Non-metastatic CC patients who continue to use opioids at 3 months are at a significantly higher risk of LTO use at one year. Biological and social factors in rural communities can be important determinants of this use pattern. The challenges surrounding opioid use and the need for safe and effective alternative analgesics require urgent attention and regulatory discourse.

A Two-Year Prospective Multicenter Study of Opioid Therapy for Chronic Noncancer Pain: Prescription Trends and Predictors.

Opioid use in chronic pain has increased worldwide in recent years. The aims of this study were to describe the trends and patterns of opioid therapy over two years of follow-up in a cohort of chronic noncancer pain (CNCP) patients and to assess predictors of long-term opioid use and clinical outcomes. A prospective cohort study with two years of follow-up was undertaken in four multidisciplinary chronic pain clinics. Demographic data, pain characteristics, and opioid prescriptions were recorded at baseline, three, six, 12, and 24 months. Six hundred seventy-four CNCP patients were recruited. The prevalence of opioid prescriptions at baseline was 59.6% (N = 402), and 13% (N = 86) were strong opioid prescriptions. At 24 months, opioid prescription prevalence was as high as 74.3% (N = 501), and strong opioid prescription was 31% (N = 207). Most opioid users (71%, N = 479) maintained their prescription during the two years of follow-up. Our opioid discontinuation was very low (1%, N = 5). Opioid users reported higher severity and interference pain scores, both at baseline and after two years of follow-up. Opioid use was independently associated with continuous pain, pain location in the lower limbs, and higher pain interference scores. This study describes a pattern of increasing opioid prescription in chronic pain patients. Despite the limited improvement of clinical outcomes, most patients keep their long-term opioid prescriptions. Our results underscore the need for changes in clinical practice and further research into the effectiveness and safety of chronic opioid therapy for CNPC.

Predictors of Long-Term Opioid Use After Opioid Initiation at Discharge From Medical and Surgical Hospitalizations.

Opioid analgesics may be initiated following surgical and medical hospitalization or in ambulatory settings; rates of subsequent long-term opioid (LTO) use have not been directly compared. This retrospective cohort study of the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) included all patients receiving a new outpatient opioid prescription from a VHA provider in fiscal year 2011. If a new outpatient prescription was filled within 2 days following hospital discharge, the initiation was considered a discharge prescription. LTO use was defined as an episode of continuous opioid supply lasting a minimum of 90 days and beginning within 30 days of the initial prescription. We performed bivariate and multivariate analyses to identify the factors associated with LTO use following surgical and medical discharges. Following incident prescription, 5.3% of discharged surgical patients, 15.2% of discharged medical patients, and 19.3% of outpatient opioid initiators received opioids long term. Medical and surgical patients differed; surgical patients were more likely to receive shorter prescription durations. Predictors of LTO use were similar in medical and surgical patients; the most robust predictor in both groups was the number of days' supply of the initial prescription (odds ratio [OR] = 1.24 and 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-1.37 for 8-14 days; OR = 1.56 and 95% CI, 1.39-1.76 for 15-29 days; and OR = 2.59 and 95% CI, 2.35-2.86 for >30 days) compared with the reference group receiving =7days. Rates of subsequent LTO use are higher among discharged medical patients than among surgical patients. Characteristics of opioid prescribing within the initial 30 days, including initial dose and days prescribed, were strongly associated with LTO use.

Predictors of Long-term Opioid Use Following Lumbar Fusion Surgery.

A population-based retrospective cohort study. The aim of this study was to examine risk factors for long-term opioid use following lumbar spinal fusion surgery in a nationally representative cohort of commercially insured adults. Opioid prescription rates for the management of low back pain have more than doubled in the US over the past decade. Although opioids are commonly used for the management of pain following lumbar spinal fusion surgery, to date, no large-scale nationally representative studies have examined the risk factors for long-term opioid use following such surgical intervention. Using one of the nation's largest commercial insurance databases, we conducted a retrospective cohort study of 8377 adults, aged 21 to 63 years, who underwent lumbar spinal fusion surgery between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2012. Long-term opioid use was defined as ≥365 days of filled opioid prescriptions in the 24 months following lumbar fusion. Multivariable logistic regression was used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals for the risk of long-term opioid use following lumbar fusion. After adjusting for covariates, the following factors were associated with an increased risk of long-term opioid use following surgery: duration of opioid use in the year before lumbar surgery [Referent (0 days); Quartile 1 (1-22 days) OR = 2.27, 95% CI = 1.48-3.49; Quartile 2 (23-72 days): OR = 5.94, 95% CI = 4.00-8.83; Quartile 3: (73-250 days) OR = 25.31, 95% CI = 17.26-37.10; Quartile 4 (≥250 days) OR = 219.95, 95% CI = 148.53-325.71)], refusion surgery (OR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.02-1.72), and diagnosis of depression (OR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.18-1.74). Receipt of anterior fusion was associated with a modest decrease in the risk of long-term opioid use (OR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.63-0.99). These findings may provide clinically relevant information to physicians, patients, and their families regarding the risk factors for opioid dependence following lumbar fusion surgery. 3.

A Prospective Study of Predictors of Long-term Opioid Use Among Patients With Chronic Noncancer Pain.

Chronic pain patients at increased risk of unfavorable pain and opioid misuse outcomes may be those most likely to use opioids long-term, but this has not been evaluated prospectively. To ascertain whether pain prognostic risk, problem opioid use risk, and depression predict opioid use 1 year later among patients recently initiating opioid therapy with a moderate likelihood of long-term opioid use. Self-report and electronic health record data were collected from patients aged 45+ years who recently initiated opioid therapy (N=762), in an integrated health care system. Logistic regression models tested whether baseline patient chronic pain prognostic risk, problem opioid use risk, depression, and expectations concerning continued opioid use independently predicted continuing use at 1 year (≥30 d supply in the prior 4 mo). At 1 year, 46% of participants continued to use opioids. Baseline problem opioid use risk score (adjusted odds ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.26) and expectations about continuing opioid use, but not pain prognostic risk score or depression, were significant predictors of 1-year opioid use. Compared with patients who thought continued opioid use unlikely, those who thought it was extremely or very likely had 4 times the odds of opioid use at 1 year (adjusted odds ratio, 4.05; 95% confidence interval, 2.59-6.31). The strongest predictors of long-term opioid use were not patient-related or medication-related factors, but expectations about using opioids in the future. Asking about such expectations may be the easiest way to identify patients likely to continue opioid use long-term.

Predictors of long-term opioid use among chronic nonmalignant pain patients: A register-based national open cohort study

Abstract Aims (1) To determine the distribution and determinants of opioid use among chronic nonmalignant pain (CNP) patients. (2) To identify the patient, treatment and socioeconomic characteristics as determinants for potential risk groups. We hypothesized that CNP patient who use opioids for more than 1 year would differ in demographics and comorbidity from other patients who use opioids for less than 6 months. Methods National registers were used to include patients beginning opioid therapy in the period 01/01/2000-31/12/2014 (incl.). The cohort consists of adults aged 16 years or older who redeemed at least one prescription for an opioid product and residing in Denmark, analysing only patients who survived for at least two years. Follow-up minimum one year after the last redeemed opioid prescription or to 31/12/2015. Participants are included at first redeemed prescription for an opioid product using the ATC codes N02AA01-N02AX06. Patients were then classified as either opioid use for more than 1 year (group A), as opioid use for more than 6 months but less than 1 year (group B) and opioid use equal to or less than 6 months (group C). Results The quantity of sold opioids has been increasing during 1997-2008, with a fairly stable but high level since. It is expected that we will be able to determine patterns and the distribution of opioid use among CNP patients in Denmark. Consequently, describing potential risk groups of opioid use based on patient, treatment, comorbidity, socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Data analysis is ongoing. Conclusions It is expected that this study will serve as a significant supplement of existing knowledge in the area of opioid consumption among CNP patients in Denmark. In a future perspective of prevention and health promotion initiatives of the growing public health problem CNP, it might be beneficial to include perspectives of risk assessment of long-term opioid use. http://medstat.dk/ statistics for annual sales of medicines in Denmark 1996–2014.

Predictors of Long-Term Opioid Use Among Patients With Painful Lumbar Spine Conditions

Predictors of Long-Term Opioid Use Among Patients With Painful Lumbar Spine Conditions

Opioid Use for Chronic Low Back Pain

To determine (1) the natural history of prescription opioid use, (2) the predictors of long-term opioid use, and (3) the association between opioid dose and pain and function in a large cohort of workers with recent back injuries. Prospective cohort of workers with back injuries (N=1883) interviewed 18 days (median) and 1 year after claim submission. Detailed pharmacy data were obtained from computerized records of paid bills. Forty-two percent of workers (781/1843) received an opioid in the year after injury, most (694/781, 89%) at or shortly after the first medical visit for the injury. Of these, most (410/694, 59%) received opioids only within the first quarter after injury, whereas 16% (111/694) received opioids for 4 quarters. Among these long-term users, total morphine equivalent dose (MED) increased significantly (P<0.01) from the first (mean, 2364 mg; standard deviation, 4019 mg) to the fourth (mean, 3824 mg; standard deviation, 5998 mg) quarter. Improvement by at least 30% in pain and function measure scores occurred in only 26% (95% confidence interval 18%-36%) and 16% (95% confidence interval 10%-25%), respectively, of long-term users. Opioid doses increased substantially over time in all but those in whom function improved. After adjustment for baseline pain, function, and injury severity, the strongest predictor of longer term opioid prescription was total MED in the first quarter. Workers receiving at least 40 mg MED per day in the first quarter had 6-fold odds of receiving longer-term opioids. For the small group of workers with compensable back injuries who receive opioids longer-term (111/1843, 6%), opioid doses increase substantially and only a minority shows clinically important improvement in pain and function. The amount of prescribed opioid received early after injury strongly predicts long-term use. More research is needed to understand clinical decisions to continue or increase opioid therapy after back injury.

Predictors of Long-Term Opioid Use Among Patients With Painful Lumbar Spine Conditions

Our objective was to assess predictors of self-reported opioid use among patients with back pain due to lumbar disc herniation or spinal stenosis. Data were from the Spine Patient Outcomes Research Trial (SPORT), a multi-site observational study and randomized trial. We examined characteristics shown or hypothesized to be associated with opioid use. Using generalized estimating equations, we modeled associations of each potential predictor with opioid use at 12 and 24 months. At baseline, 42% of participants reported opioid use. Of these participants, 25% reported continued use at 12 months and 21% reported use at 24 months. In adjusted models, smoking (RR = 1.9, P < .001 at 12 months; RR = 1.5, P = .043 at 24 months) and nonsurgical treatment (RR = 1.7, P < .001 at 12 months; RR = 1.8, P = .003 at 24 months) predicted long-term opioid continuation. Among participants not using opioids at baseline, incident use was reported by 8% at 12 months and 7% at 24 months. We found no significant predictors of incident use at 12 or 24 months in the main models. In conclusion, nonsurgical treatment and smoking independently predicted long-term continued opioid use. To our knowledge, this is the first longitudinal study to assess predictors of long-term and incident opioid use among patients with lumbar spine conditions. This longitudinal study of patients with disc herniation or spinal stenosis found that nonsurgical treatment and smoking predicted long-term self-reported opioid use. The greater risk of opioid continuation with nonsurgical therapy may be helpful in decision-making about treatment. The relationship between opioid use, smoking, and other substance use deserves further study.