Predictors Of 5-year Survival Research Articles

Lung transplant outcomes after acute respiratory distress syndrome requiring extracorporeal life support: Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic

ObjectiveLung transplant for acute respiratory distress syndrome in patients supported with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation was rare before 2020, but was rapidly adopted to rescue patients with COVID-19 with lung failure. This study aims to compare the outcomes of patients who underwent lung transplant for COVID-associated acute respiratory distress syndrome and non-COVID acute respiratory distress syndrome, and to assess the impact of type and duration of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support on survival. MethodsUsing the United Network for Organ Sharing database, we identified 311 patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome who underwent lung transplant from 2007 to 2022 and performed a retrospective analysis of the patients who required extracorporeal membrane oxygenation preoperatively, stratified by COVID-associated acute respiratory distress syndrome and non-COVID acute respiratory distress syndrome listing diagnoses. The primary outcome was 1-year survival. Secondary outcomes included the effect of type and duration of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation on survival. ResultsDuring the study period, 236 patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome and preoperative extracorporeal membrane oxygenation underwent lung transplant; 181 patients had a listing diagnosis of COVID-associated acute respiratory distress syndrome (77%), and 55 patients had a listing diagnosis of non-COVID acute respiratory distress syndrome (23%). Patients with COVID-associated acute respiratory distress syndrome were older, were more likely to be female, had higher body mass index, and spent longer on the waitlist (all P < .02) than patients with non-COVID acute respiratory distress syndrome. The 2 groups had similar 1-year survival (85.8% vs 81.1%, P = .2) with no differences in postoperative complications. Patients with COVID-associated acute respiratory distress syndrome required longer times on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation pretransplant (P = .02), but duration of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support was not a predictor of 1-year survival (P = .2). ConclusionsDespite prolonged periods of pretransplant extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support, selected patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome can undergo lung transplant safely with acceptable short-term outcomes. Appropriate selection criteria and long-term implications require further analysis.

CT analysis of left ventricular function predicts short term survival in patients following transcatheter aortic valve implantation: 1-year outcome data

Abstract Introduction Contrast-enhanced cardiac CT routinely performed prior to transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI), allows assessment of cardiac morphology and function. We assessed left ventricular function in CT as a predictor of survival following TAVI. Methods 500 consecutive patients referred for CT assessment of aortic root anatomy prior to TAVI were screened for inclusion in this analysis. All CT data sets were acquired using a third-generation dual source system. For assessment of aortic root anatomy, acquisitions were acquired using ECG-gated retrospective spiral acquisition and multiphase reconstructions in 10% increments of the cardiac cycle were rendered (slice thickness 0.75, increment 0.4 mm). left ventricular endocardial contours were automatically traced by a dedicated software (syngo. via, Siemens Healthineers, Forchheim, Germany) throughout the cardiac cycle and manually adjusted if required. Global left ventricular function parameters (end-diastolic and end-systolic volumes, stroke volume, cardiac output and ejection fraction) were derived by volumetric assessment. Results Out of 500 patients, 439 patients (mean age 80±6 years, 56% males, and Log EuroScore 23±14%) were included in this analysis (61 patients were excluded due to poor CT image quality or missing outcome data). Previous cardiac surgery had been performed in 15% of the patients, 50% had obstructive CAD with previous interventional or surgical revascularisation and 18% had a previous acute coronary syndrome. One-year survival was 83% (366/439 patients). Parameters of left ventricular function were as follows: mean LVEDV 172±56 ml, mean LVESV 78±62 ml, mean LV ejection fraction 59±18%, mean LV stroke volume index 51±22 ml/m2, mean LV cardiac output 6.6±3.3 L/min and LV cardiac index 3.5±1.7 l/min/m2. Cluster analysis of multiple LV-function surrogate parameters identified a group of patients with higher 1-year mortality, with LVEF identified as a predictor of 1-year survival with a cut-0ff of ≥37% associated with an OR 0f 0.52 (95% CI 0.27 to 0.98). Conclusion Assessment of left ventricular function using functional CT data sets is feasible and allows risk stratification of patients following TAVI. Among LV functional parameters, CT derived LV-ejection fraction with a cut-off ≥37% identifies patients with better short-term outcome. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.

Prediction model of 3-year survival after endoscopic submucosal dissection for early gastric cancer in elderly patients aged ≥ 85years: EGC-2 model.

Little is known about the prognostic factors for survival after endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) in elderly patients with early gastric cancer (EGC). The aim of this study is to determine prognostic factors and a prediction model of 3-year survival after ESD for EGC in patients aged ≥ 85years. We retrospectively evaluated the clinical outcomes of 740 patients with EGC aged ≥ 85years, who were treated by ESD at 30 institutions in Japan. Overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) were calculated with the Kaplan-Meier method. Prediction models for 3-year OS after ESD were estimated using the Cox proportional hazards model based on Uno's C-statistics. During the follow-up period, 309 patients died of any cause and 10 patients died of gastric cancer. OS and DSS after 3years were 82.7% and 99.2%, respectively. No significant differences in OS were found among curability categories. The Cox proportional hazards model revealed the geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) and the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) to be predictors of 3-year survival. We established a final model (EGC-2 model) expressed by GNRI-(2.2×CCI) with a cutoff value of 96. The overall survival rate was significantly lower in the model value < 96 group than in the model value ≥ 96 group (P < 0.001). The prediction model using GNRI and CCI will be useful to support decision-making for the treatment of EGC in elderly patients aged ≥ 85years.

Comparison of the predictive ability of clinical frailty scale and hospital frailty risk score to determine long-term survival in critically ill patients: a multicentre retrospective cohort study

BackgroundThe Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) is the most commonly used frailty measure in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. The hospital frailty risk score (HFRS) was recently proposed for the quantification of frailty. We aimed to compare the HFRS with the CFS in critically ill patients in predicting long-term survival up to one year following ICU admission.MethodsIn this retrospective multicentre cohort study from 16 public ICUs in the state of Victoria, Australia between 1st January 2017 and 30th June 2018, ICU admission episodes listed in the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database registry with a documented CFS, which had been linked with the Victorian Admitted Episode Dataset and the Victorian Death Index were examined. The HFRS was calculated for each patient using the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) codes that represented pre-existing conditions at the time of index hospital admission. Descriptive methods, Cox proportional hazards and area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) were used to investigate the association between each frailty score and long-term survival up to 1 year, after adjusting for confounders including sex and baseline severity of illness on admission to ICU (Australia New Zealand risk-of-death, ANZROD).Results7001 ICU patients with both frailty measures were analysed. The overall median (IQR) age was 63.7 (49.1–74.0) years; 59.5% (n = 4166) were male; the median (IQR) APACHE II score 14 (10–20). Almost half (46.7%, n = 3266) were mechanically ventilated. The hospital mortality was 9.5% (n = 642) and 1-year mortality was 14.4% (n = 1005). HFRS correlated weakly with CFS (Spearman’s rho 0.13 (95% CI 0.10–0.15) and had a poor agreement (kappa = 0.12, 95% CI 0.10–0.15). Both frailty measures predicted 1-year survival after adjusting for confounders, CFS (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.21–1.31) and HFRS (HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.02–1.15). The CFS had better discrimination of 1-year mortality than HFRS (AUROC 0.66 vs 0.63 p < 0.0001).ConclusionBoth HFRS and CFS independently predicted up to 1-year survival following an ICU admission with moderate discrimination. The CFS was a better predictor of 1-year survival than the HFRS.

One-year survival and prognostic factors for survival among stroke patients: The PROVE-stroke study.

Survival and prognostic factors following stroke occurrence differ between world regions. Studies investigating stroke features in the Middle-east region are scarce. We aimed to investigate 1-year survival and related prognostic factors of stroke patients in Central Iran. It is an observational analytical study conducted on patients registered in the Persian Registry of Cardiovascular Disease-Stroke (PROVE-Stroke) database. Records of 1703 patients admitted during 2015-2016 with the primary diagnosis of stroke in all hospitals of Isfahan, Iran were reviewed. Information regarding sociodemographic characteristics, clinical presentations, medications, and comorbidities were recorded. The living status of patients after 1 year from stroke was considered as 1-year survival. Among 1345 patients with the final diagnosis of stroke, 970 (72.1%) were alive at the 1 year follow-up and the mean survival time based on Kaplan-Meier procedure was estimated 277.33 days. The hemorrhagic and ischemic types of stroke were reported in 201 (15.0%) and 1141 (84.8%) patients, respectively. Age (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.05-1.09), diabetes (HR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.07-2.06), history of stroke or transient ischemic attack (HR = 1.81, 95% CI = 1.30-2.52), history of warfarin usage (HR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.11-2.71), hospital complications of hemorrhage (HR = 3.89, 95% CI = 2.07-7.31), sepsis (HR = 1.78, 95% CI = 1.18-2.68), and hydrocephalus (HR = 3.43, 95% CI = 1.34-8.79), and modified Rankin Scale (mRS) ≥3 at the time of hospital dicharge (HR = 1.98, 95% CI = 1.27-3.07), were predictors of 1-year survival. Predictors of 1-year survival can be categorized into unchangeable ones, such as age, diabetes, previous stroke, and mRS. The changeable factors, such as hospital complications of infection and hemorrhage, guide physicians to pay greater attention to reduce the risk of mortality following stroke.

Impact of older age on the long-term survival in living-donor liver transplantation: A propensity score matching analysis

BackgroundPrevalence of the end-stage liver disease in the elderly patients indicating a liver transplantation (LT) has been increasing. There is no universally accepted upper age limit for LT candidates but the functional status of older patients is important in pre-LT evaluation. This study aimed to examine the impact of older age on survival after living donor liver transplantation (LDLT). MethodA total of 171 LDLT recipients were assessed in two groups: age ≥65 and < 65. To eliminate selection bias propensity score matching (PSM) was performed, and 56 of 171 recipients were included in this study. ResultsThere were 20 recipients in the older group and 36 in the younger. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates were 65.0%, 60.0%, and 60.0% in group 1; 88.9%, 84.7%, and 71.4% in group 2, respectively. The 1-year survival was significantly lower in the older recipients; however, overall survival rates were similar between the groups. Of the 56 recipients, 15 (27%) deaths were observed in overall, and 11 (20%) in 1-year follow-up. The univariate regression analysis after PSM revealed that MELD score affected 1- year survival and the multivariate analysis revealed that age ≥65 years and MELD score were the predictors of 1-year survival. ConclusionAt first sight, before PSM, survival appeared to be worse for older recipients. However, we have shown that there were confounding effects of clinical variables in the preliminary evaluation. After the elimination of this bias with PSM, This study highlights that older recipients have similar outcomes as youngers in LDLT for long-term survival.

Breast cancer survivorship and level of institutional involvement utilizing integrative oncology.

e18588 Background: A growing body of evidence has shown that a Whole Person Integrative Oncology approach, adding the use of complementary and lifestyle therapies to cancer treatments, benefits patients by improving patient-reported outcomes and potentially extending overall survival. This study aims to investigate the relationship between the survival outcomes of breast cancer patients and the level of involvement in Integrative Oncology at the institutions treating those patients. Methods: Between January 2013 and December 2014, 4,815 breast cancer patients were available for survival analysis using an established claims-based method. These patients were filtered to include those with clear mapping to treating oncologists and treating institutions. To measure each institution’s level of Integrative involvement, a scoring system was developed with the Samueli Foundation and oncologists from each institution were surveyed on the education, availability, and financing of 12 complementary and lifestyle approaches during the treatment timeframe. Statistical analysis using multivariate modeling with logistic regression and a lasso approach were employed. 19 variables across region, patient demographics, and institutional profile were included. Model coefficients are exponentiated and presented as odds-ratios, with less than one having a negative impact on survival and greater than one improved survival. Results: We identified 173 patients mapping to 103 institutions and 103 oncologists who responded to our survey. Median age of breast cancer patients was 51 (range: 32-76). 14 of the patients (8%) were identified as metastatic. The 5-year overall survival among the Low scoring institutions was 89%, Low-Mid 96%, Mid-High 96%, High 95%. Chi square testing across these cohorts showed no statistically significant difference between them. On multivariate modeling, age, geography, metastatic status, academic setting, and Integrative score were predictors of 5-year survival. The most significant 9 variables are shown in Table. Having metastatic disease, treatment at a non NCCN designated facility, treatment at Midwest or Western Region predicts for lower 5-year survival. Older age, treatment at an academic setting, and having a High or Low-Mid Integrative score are predictors of improved survival. Conclusions: This study suggests that in addition to traditional predictors of survival such as metastatic disease and younger age, patients receiving treatment at an institution that supports Integrative Oncology programs may be associated with improved survival. More work is needed to evaluate the relationship between Integrative Oncology and cancer treatment outcomes.[Table: see text]

Concomitant tricuspid regurgitation severity and its secondary reduction determine long-term prognosis after transcatheter mitral valve edge-to-edge repair

BackgroundConcomitant tricuspid regurgitation (TR) is a common finding in mitral regurgitation (MR). Transcatheter repair (TMVR) is a favorable treatment option in patients at elevated surgical risk. To date, evidence on long-term prognosis and the prognostic impact of TR after TMVR is limited.MethodsLong-term survival data of patients undergoing isolated edge-to-edge repair from June 2010 to March 2018 (combinations with other forms of TMVR or tricuspid valve therapy excluded) were analyzed in a retrospective monocentric study. TR severity was categorized and the impact of TR on survival was analysed.ResultsOverall, 606 patients [46.5% female, 56.4% functional MR (FMR)] were enrolled in this study. TR at baseline was categorized severe/medium/mild/no or trace in 23.2/34.3/36.3/6.3% of the cases. At 30-day follow-up, improvement of at least one TR-grade was documented in 34.9%. Severe TR at baseline was identified as predictor of 1-year survival [65.2% vs. 77.0%, p = 0.030; HR for death 1.68 (95% CI 1.12–2.54), p = 0.013] and in FMR-patients also regarding long-term prognosis [adjusted HR for long-term mortality 1.57 (95% CI 1.00–2.45), p = 0.049]. Missing post-interventional reduction of TR severity was predictive for poor prognosis, especially in the FMR-subgroup [1-year survival: 92.9% vs. 78.3%, p = 0.025; HR for death at 1-year follow-up 3.31 (95% CI 1.15–9.58), p = 0.027]. While BNP levels decreased in both subgroups, TR reduction was associated with improved symptomatic benefit (NYHA-class-reduction 78.6 vs. 65.9%, p = 0.021).ConclusionIn this large study, both, severe TR at baseline as well as missing secondary reduction were predictive for impaired long-term prognosis, especially in patients with FMR etiology. TR reduction was associated with increased symptomatic benefit.Graphic abstract

Prevalence and prognosis of synchronous distant metastatic tonsil squamous cell carcinomas.

Background: To analyze the prevalence proportions and prognostic factors of synchronous distant metastases in patients with tonsil squamous cell carcinomas (TSCC).Methods: TSCC patients were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2014. We examined the association between clinical manifestations and distant metastases using Chi-squared tests. Predictors of 5-year survival were assessed using univariate and multivariate analyses.Results: A total of 6193 patients were analyzed and lung was the most common site of distant metastases. Poorly/undifferentiated differentiation was found to be significantly correlated with lung metastasis (p=0.033) and liver and bone metastases were associated with African American (p=0.000 and p=0.000, respectively). A higher T classification was associated with higher prevalence of lung, liver, bone and brain metastasis (p=0.000, p=0.000, p=0.000 and p=0.007, respectively). The same results were found in N classification in lung, liver, and bone metastasis (p=0.000, p=0.000, and p=0.000, respectively). Worse prognosis was associated with older age, Blacks, lower grade, higher T and N classification, no surgery therapy and more metastatic sites.Conclusion: Lung was the most frequent lesion of synchronous distant metastases and liver and bone metastases were associated with African American. Higher T and N classification were independent prognostic parameters for higher prevalence of lung, bone, liver and brain metastasis. Worse prognosis was associated with older age, African Americans, lower grade, higher T and N classification, no surgery therapy and more metastatic sites.

Expression of Selected Epithelial-Mesenchymal Transition Transcription Factors in Endometrial Cancer.

Endometrial cancer (EC) is the most common gynecologic malignancy in developed countries. The aim of this study was to analyze the expression of SNAIL, SLUG, TWIST1, TWIST2, ZEB1, and ZEB 2 in primary tumor and the correlation with morphological and clinical characteristics of EC. The study included 158 patients with EC after surgical treatments: total hysterectomy and lymphadenectomy. The percentages of EC specimens testing positively for the EMT transcription factors were 84.5% for SNAIL, 92.2% for SLUG, 10.9% for TWIST1, 100% for TWIST2, 89% for ZEB1, and 98% for ZEB2. The expression of SLUG in patients with FIGO stage III or IV, type II EC, myometrial invasion ≥ 50% of the uterine wall thickness, and adnexal involvement and in patients with distant metastases was significantly higher. SLUG and ZEB2 expressions were identified as significant predictors of higher FIGO stages (III or IV) on univariate analysis. The overexpression of SLUG was a significant predictor of more aggressive type II EC, myometrial invasion ≥ 50% of the uterine wall thickness, and distant metastases on both univariate and multivariate analysis. Moreover, the overexpression of SLUG and ZEB2 was shown to be significant predictors of adnexal involvement on univariate analysis. ZEB 2 overexpression was identified in multivariate analysis as another independent predictor associated with a lesser likelihood of type II EC. Both univariate and multivariate analyses demonstrated that SLUG expression was the only predictor of 5-year survival in the study group. The overexpression of SLUG was associated with a significant increase in mortality hazard on univariate analysis and was shown to be a highly significant predictor of death on multivariate analysis. Conclusions. Selected proteins of the EMT pathway play a role in endometrial carcinogenesis; SLUG and ZEB2 expressions in the primary tumor might predict clinical outcomes in EC and drive therapeutic decisions regarding adjuvant treatment in patients with this malignancy.

SIRT Compared with DEB-TACE for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: a Real-world Study (the SITAR Study)

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is responsible for 1% of deaths worldwide, and the incidence continues to increase. Despite surveillance programs, 70% of HCC patients are not suitable for curative options at diagnosis, and therefore, non-curative treatments are essential to modern clinical practice. There are many novel treatments, though their roles are not well defined. This study aimed to contrast Selective Internal Radiation Therapy (SIRT) and Drug Eluting Bead Transarterial Chemoembolisation (DEB-TACE) to further define their roles. This was a retrospective multicentre cohort study. Factors included for analysis were type of HCC treatment, number of lesions, lesion size, multiple disease severity scores, cirrhosis and vascular invasion. The primary endpoint was transplant-free survival. Transplant-free survival was similar between the two cohorts (p = 0.654), despite a variation in median lesion size, SIRT: 54.5mm, DEB-TACE: 34mm (p ≤ 0.001). A univariate Cox proportional hazard model utilising treatment modality as the covariate showed no significant difference in survival (DEB-TACE HR 1.4 (95%CI 0.85-2.15 p = 0.207). The size of the largest lesion was the best predictor of 3-year survival (p = 0.035). Lesion size was inversely associated with survival (HR 1.01 (95%CI 1-1.02, p = 0.025)) on multivariate analysis. This study is the first to catalogue the experience of using SIRT in HCC in a real-world Australian population. It has demonstrated no difference in survival outcomes between DEB-TACE and SIRT. Further, it has shown SIRT to be a reasonable alternative to DEB-TACE especially in larger lesions and has demonstrated that DEB-TACE has a role in select patients with advanced disease.

Predictors of 1-year survival in South African transcatheter aortic valve implant candidates.

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) has undergone rapid expansion internationally over the past 15 years. In view of resource constraints in developing countries, a major challenge in applying this technology lies in identifying patients most likely to benefit. The development of a risk prediction model for TAVI has proved elusive, with a reported area under the curve (AUC) of 0.6 - 0.65. The available models were developed in a First-World setting and may not be applicable to South Africa (SA). To evaluate novel indicators and to develop a TAVI risk prediction model unique to the SA context. The current work represents the important initial steps of derivation cohort risk model development and internal validation. Seven-year experience with 244 successive TAVI implants in three centres in Western Cape Province, SA, was used to derive risk parameters. All outcomes are reported in accordance with the Valve Academic Research Consortium definitions. Multiple preprocedural variables were assessed for their impact on 1-year survival using univariate and multivariate models. Factors found not to correlate with 1-year survival included age, renal function and aortic valve gradients. The commonly used surgical risk prediction models (Society of Thoracic Surgeons score and EuroSCORE) showed no correlation with outcomes. Factors found to correlate best with 1-year survival on multivariate analysis were preprocedural body mass index (BMI) (favouring higher BMI), preprocedural left ventricular end-diastolic dimension (LVED) and ejection fraction (EF) (favouring smaller LVED and higher EF), absence of atrial fibrillation, and three novel parameters: independent living, ability to drive a car, and independent food acquisition/cooking. Discriminant analysis of these factors yielded an AUC of 0.8 (95% confidence interval 0.7 - 0.9) to predict 1-year survival, with resubstitution sensitivities and specificities of 72% and 71%, respectively. Apart from existing predictors, we identified three novel risk predictors (independent living, ability to drive a car, and independent food acquisition/cooking) for 1-year survival in TAVI candidates. These novel parameters performed well in this early evaluation, with an AUC for predicting 1-year survival higher than the AUCs for many of the internationally derived parameters. The parameters are inexpensive and easy to obtain at the initial patient visit. If validated prospectively in external cohorts, they may be applicable to other resource-constrained environments.

Accuracy of Postoperative Risk Scores for Survival Prediction in Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support Profile 1 Continuous-Flow Left Ventricular Assist Device Recipients.

In this study, we sought to determine the accuracy of several critical care risk scores for predicting survival of Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support (INTERMACS) Profile 1 patients after continuous-flow left ventricular assist device (CF-LVAD) placement. We retrospectively analyzed the records of 605 patients who underwent CF-LVAD implantation between 2003 and 2016. We calculated the preoperative HeartMate II Risk Score (HMRS) and preoperative Right Ventricular Failure Risk Score (RVFRS) and the following risk scores for postoperative days 1-5: HMRS, RVFRS, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-eXcluding International Normalized Ratio, Post Cardiac Surgery (POCAS) risk score, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) risk score, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III. The preoperative scores and the postoperative day 1, 5-day mean, and 5-day maximum scores were entered into a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis to examine accuracy for predicting 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year survival. The mean POCAS score was the best predictor of 30-day and 90-day survival (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.869 and 0.816). The postoperative mean RVFRS was the best predictor of 1-year survival (AUC = 0.7908). The postoperative maximum and mean RVFRS and HMRS were more accurate than the preoperative scores. Both of these risk score measurements of acuity in the postoperative intensive care unit setting help predict early mortality after LVAD implantation.

Clinical characteristics and predictors of 5-year survival among colorectal cancer patients in a tertiary hospital in Malaysia.

Colorectal cancer is the second most common cancer in Malaysia. Its disease burden is likely to increase over time owing to its current trends in this region. This study was undertaken to determine the 5-year survival rate and prognostic factors for survival in colorectal cancer patients treated in a tertiary hospital, in Malaysia. We reviewed the records of colorectal cancer patients treated in Hospital Tuanku Ja'afar Seremban, Malaysia from 2008 to 2012. Survival analysis at five years was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was carried out to determine the predictors of 5-year colorectal cancer survival. Of the 275 patients, 43.3% were colon cancers, 51.8% were rectal cancers. Only 2.2% were diagnosed in Stage I. 28.7%, 33.1%, and 16.7% were in Stage II, III and IV respectively; 62/79 (78%) of Stage II patients were in Stage IIb; 15.7% of patients were below the age of 50 and fewer of them presented early (P=0.002). The overall 5-year survival was 46.5%. It was 67.9%, 50.5% and 12.8% for Stage I&II, III and IV patients respectively. Early stage of cancer (P<0.001) and age below the mean (P=0.01) were the most significant factor in predicting better survival. Gender and ethnic group were not associated with late presentation nor survival. Neither was there a difference between colon and rectum cancers nor patients who received elective surgical treatment compared to patients receiving other treatment first (P=0.085). Late presentation is the most important predictor for poor outcome for colorectal cancer in Seremban. Patients under the age of 50 years present late more often, but do not have poorer survival.

NON-INVASIVE RIGHT VENTRICULAR FUNCTION ASSESMENT IN HEART TRANSPLANT RECIPIENTS

Right ventricular (RV) function by invasive hemodynamics in orthotopic heart transplant (OHTx) recipients is a predictor of 5-year survival. A paucity of longitudinal data exists documenting echocardiographic RV function and its correlation with invasive hemodynamics. Multiple echocardiographic

The Neutrophil–Lymphocyte Ratio is a Predictor of 1-Year Survival Following Major Limb Amputation

The Neutrophil–Lymphocyte Ratio is a Predictor of 1-Year Survival Following Major Limb Amputation

Predictors of one-year outcomes in chronic heart failure: the portrait of a middle income country

BackgroundHeart failure (HF) is a major public health problem with increasing prevalence worldwide. It is associated with high mortality and poor quality of life due to recurrent and costly hospital admissions. Several studies have been conducted to describe HF risk predictors in different races, countries and health systems. Nonetheless, understanding population-specific determinants of HF outcomes remains a great challenge.We aim to evaluate predictors of 1-year survival of individuals with systolic heart failure from the GENIUS-HF cohort.MethodsWe enrolled 700 consecutive patients with systolic heart failure from the SPA outpatient clinic of the Heart Institute, a tertiary health-center in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Inclusion criteria were age between 18 and 80 years old with heart failure diagnosis of different etiologies and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤50% in the previous 2 years of enrollment on the cohort. We recorded baseline demographic and clinical characteristics and followed-up patients at 6 months intervals by telephone interview. Study data were collected and data quality assurance by the Research Electronic Data Capture tools. Time to death was studied using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for demographic, clinical and socioeconomic variables and medication use.ResultsWe screened 2314 consecutive patients for eligibility and enrolled 700 participants.The overall mortality was 6.8% (47 patients); the composite outcome of death and hospitalization was 17.7% (123 patients) and 1% (7 patients) have been submitted to heart transplantation after one year of enrollment. After multivariate adjustment, baseline values of blood urea nitrogen (HR 1.017; CI 95% 1.008–1.027; p < 0.001), brain natriuretic peptide (HR 1.695; CI 95% 1.347–2.134; p < 0.001) and systolic blood pressure (HR 0.982;CI 95% 0.969–0.995; p = 0.008) were independently associated with death within 1 year. Kaplan Meier curves showed that ischemic patients have worse survival free of death and hospitalization compared to other etiologies.ConclusionsHigh levels of BUN and BNP and low systolic blood pressure were independent predictors of one-year overall mortality in our sample.Trial registrationCurrent Controlled Trials NTC02043431, retrospectively registered at in January 23, 2014.

Survival after Primary Graft Dysfunction in Heart Transplantation: Outcomes of the National UK Data

Purpose Primary graft dysfunction (PGD) continues to be a potentially life-threatening early complication of heart transplantation despite advances in treatment options. PGD rates in the UK are about 36% and is the leading cause of 30-day mortality. The current ISHLT definition includes a severity scale for biventricular PGD. Our aim was to ascertain if the severity of PGD influences survival post-transplantation. Methods A retrospective review all adult patients who underwent heart transplantation between 1 October 2012- 30 September 2016 in the 6 UK heart transplant centres. The cohort of patients was divided into 3 groups based on PGD severity; mild, moderate and severe PGD respectively. Time to event survival analysis was performed with all-cause mortality as the outcome measure. Multivariable Cox regression analyses were used to measure the associations between the groups and all-cause mortality after adjusting for potential confounders: recipient age, donor age, gender, warm ischaemic time, recipient diabetes mellitus, and donor-recipient gender mismatch and size mismatch. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to show survival analysis. Risk estimates were presented as hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals. Log-rank tests were performed to compare survival curves. Results for all analyses were deemed statistically significant at p-values Results A total of 221 patients (73% male) were included; 11(5%) in Mild PGD, 101(46%) in Moderate PGD and 109 (49%) in severe PGD. The mean age of the recipients in the study was 46.8±13.2 years. Independent predictors of 5-year survival were recipient diabetes mellitus (HR 3.0 (CI 1.8-5.1) p Conclusion Although the recovery of cardiac function post-PGD is possible using a combination of inotropes or mechanical assist devices, it still confers a poorer survival at up to 5 years. PGD severity affects outcomes post heart transplantation.

Airflow Obstruction Categorization Methods and Mortality.

Current guidelines recommend using forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) % predicted to categorize the severity of airflow obstruction. There are limitations to using FEV1 % predicted for this purpose, including bias associated with demographic factors and the inability to correct for "lung size." Other methods for grading the severity of airflow obstruction have been proposed to address these limitations. Our objectives were to categorize airflow obstruction severity using these methods and then determine which method results in a categorization most closely associated with mortality. Study subjects were patients aged 40-80 years tested in our pulmonary function test laboratories in the period 2002 to 2013 with airflow obstruction based on an FEV1/forced vital capacity (FVC) less than the lower limit of normal. Categorization of airflow obstruction severity was determined using four methods: FEV1 % predicted; FEV1 % predicted adjusted by FVC % predicted; FEV1/FVC confidence interval approach; and FEV1 z-scores. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to determine which categorization method best predicts 5-year survival. We identified 2,000 patients with airflow obstruction. Important differences in the categorization of airflow obstruction severity were observed using the different methods. More patients were categorized as having severe obstruction using FEV1 % predicted and FEV1 z-scores compared with FEV1 % predicted adjusted by FVC % predicted and FEV1/FVC confidence interval approach. FEV1 % predicted was the best predictor of 5-year survival among the four methods studied. In our study, categorizing airflow obstruction severity using FEV1 % predicted best predicted 5-year survival. This validates the current guideline recommendation that FEV1 % predicted be used to categorize the severity of airflow obstruction.

Survival outcomes post percutaneous coronary intervention: Why the hype about stent type? Lessons from a healthcare system in India.

A prospective, multicenter study was initiated by the Government of Maharashtra, India, to determine predictors of long-term outcomes of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for coronary artery disease, and to compare the effectiveness of drug-eluting stents (DESs) and bare-metal stents (BMSs) in patients undergoing PCI under government-funded insurance. The present analysis included 4595 patients managed between August 2012 and November 2016 at any of 110 participating centers. Using the classical multivariable regression and propensity-matching approach, we found age to be the most important predictor of 1-year mortality and target lesion revascularization at 1 year post-PCI. However, using machine learning methods to account for unmeasured confounders and bias in this large observational study, we determined total stent length and number of stents deployed as the most important predictors of 1-year survival, followed by age and employment status. The unadjusted death rates were 5.0% and 3.8% for the BMS and DES groups, respectively (p = 0.185, log-rank test). The rate of re-hospitalization (p<0.001) and recurrence of unstable angina (p = 0.08) was significantly lower for DESs than for BMSs. Increased use of DES after 2015 (following establishment of a price cap on DESs) was associated with a sharp decrease in adjusted hazard ratios of DESs versus BMSs (from 0.94 in 2013 to 0.58 in 2016), suggesting that high price was limiting DES use in some high-risk patients. Since stented length and stent number were the most important predictors of survival outcomes, adopting an ischemia-guided revascularization strategy is expected to help improve outcomes and reduce procedural costs. In the elderly, PCI should be reserved for cases where the benefits outweigh the higher risk of the procedure. As unemployed patients had poorer long-term outcomes, we expect that implementation of a post-PCI cardiovascular rehabilitation program may improve long-term outcomes.