Predictor Of Major Adverse Events Research Articles

Transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy in severe aortic stenosis submitted to valve replacement: a multicenter study.

Aim: To evaluate the prevalence of TTR amyloid cardiomyopathy (ATTR-CM) in severe aortic stenosis (SAS) patients, and to determine the independent predictors of major adverse events (MAE).Patients & methods: 91 SAS patients >65years with an interventricular septum thickness ≥12.5mm were referred for aortic valve replacement (AVR). 99mTc-DPD scintigraphy was applied to diagnose ATTR-CM, in the absence of monoclonal protein.Results: ATTR-CM was found in 11%. 78% of patients underwent AVR, but only 2 had ATTR-CM. There were no significant differences in the composite of all cause-mortality or cardiovascular hospitalizations. Lower left ventricle ejection fraction and not performing AVR were independent predictors of MAE.Conclusion: Not performing AVR was an independent predictor of MAE, regardless theATTR-CM diagnosis.

Reoperative aortic root replacement following previous cardiac surgery or type A aortic dissection repair

ObjectiveReoperative aortic root replacement (ARR) is a technically challenging procedure. This study assesses the influence of reoperation on outcomes following ARR, particularly after prior acute type A aortic dissection repair. MethodsOf the 1823 patients in this study, 1592 (87.3%) underwent primary ARR, and 231 (12.7%) underwent reoperative ARR. Within the reoperative ARR group, 69 patients (29.9%) had previous acute type A aortic dissection repair, and 162 patients (70.1%) underwent reoperative ARR for other indications. ResultsReoperative ARR patients exhibited higher rates of ischemic heart disease (13.9% vs 3%; P < .001), diabetes (10% vs 5.3%; P = .009), chronic pulmonary disease (9.1% vs 5%; P = .018), renal impairment (17.7% vs 5.3%; P < .001), and had lower ejection fraction (45.5% ± 8.1% vs 47.6% ± 7.9%; P < .001) compared with primary ARR. The overall operative mortality was 0.4%, with no significant difference between groups (0.9% vs 0.3%; P = .485). At multivariable analysis, previous operation was the most powerful predictor for major adverse events (odds ratio, 3.20; 95% CI, 2.12-4.79; P < .001). Reoperative ARR had a lower 10-year survival compared with primary ARR (67.4% vs 85.9%; log-rank P < .001). Multivariable analysis further confirmed that reoperation was significantly associated with 10-year mortality (hazard ratio, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.01-3.06; P = .044). Among the reoperative ARR group, operative mortality after previous acute type A aortic dissection repair was similar to that for other etiologies (0% vs 1.2%; P = .880). ConclusionsPatients undergoing reoperative ARR have more comorbidities and extensive aortic disease compared with those undergoing primary surgery. They face a 3.5-fold increased risk of major adverse events but no difference in operative mortality compared with primary ARR.

Despite celiprolol therapy, patients with vascular Ehlers-Danlos syndrome remain at risk of vascular events: A 12-year experience in an Italian referral center.

Vascular Ehlers-Danlos syndrome (vEDS) is an inherited connective tissue disorder characterized by arterial fragility. Celiprolol has been suggested to significantly reduce rates of vascular events in this setting, though real-world evidence is limited. The aim of this study was to report our experience with celiprolol therapy in vEDS management. Patients with a genetically confirmed diagnosis of vEDS who were referred for outpatient consultation at the Brescia University Hospital between January 2011 and July 2023 were included. At each visit, patients' medical history, results of vascular imaging, and office blood pressure measurements were recorded. Celiprolol therapy was progressively titrated to the maximum tolerated dose of up to 400 mg daily, according to the patients' tolerance. Overall, 26 patients were included. Female sex was prevalent (62%). Mean (SD) age was 37 (16) years. Follow-up duration was 72 (41) months. At the last follow-up visit, all patients were on celiprolol therapy, 80% of whom were taking the maximum recommended dose. The yearly risk of symptomatic vascular events was 8.8%, the majority of which occurred after reaching the maximum recommended dose of celiprolol. No significant predictor of symptomatic vascular events was identified among patients' clinical characteristics. In our cohort, rates of celiprolol use were high and the drug was well tolerated overall. Nonetheless, the risk of symptomatic vascular events remained nonnegligible. Future studies should identify reliable predictors of major adverse events and explore additional therapeutic strategies that could further lower the risk of life-threatening events in this population.

Arrhythmic risk stratification in patients with left ventricular ring-like scar

Abstract Background Myocardial fibrosis assessment with late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) at cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) has recently emerged as an independent predictor of major adverse events in patients with non-ischemic cardiomyopathy. Several studies have examined different locations and extension degrees of LGE, and the so called "ring-like pattern" has been related with an increased incidence of ventricular arrhythmias, in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM), but also in patients with preserved systolic function. Purpose To describe clinical, electrocardiographic, echocardiographic, CMR and genetic features of the left ventricular (LV) ring-like scar phenotype and to evaluate which characteristics may be associated with the risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). Methods Patients diagnosed with LV ring-like scar were identified at 6 referral Centres. Diagnosis was based on: 1) ring-like LGE LV pattern, defined as at least 3 contiguous segments with subepicardial/midwall LGE in the same slice with or without fatty infiltration; or 2) pathology examination of explanted hearts/autoptic cases suffering from sudden cardiac death (SCD). Moreover, patients must have an additional inclusion criterion: a positive genetic test, or ≥1 patient in the same family with an ascertained cardiomyopathy. Major adverse arrhythmic cardiac events (MAACE), defined as a composite of SCD, aborted SCD, and sustained ventricular tachycardia (SVT), were the primary study endpoint. Results The final cohort comprised 129 patients (male 59.7%, median age at diagnosis 44 years). During a median follow-up of 3.4 years (IQR 1.2 – 64.), MAACE occurred in 31 patients (24%). Nearly 70% of the patients had a likely pathogenic/pathogenic mutation, mostly in desmoplakin (DSP) and filamin-C (FLNC) genes (65% and 19%, respectively). Sex, QRS width, and LGE in LV anterior wall and/or apex, were the only independent predictors of the outcome events (HR: 0.329, 95% CI: 0.119-0.916, P = 0.033; HR: 1.036, 95% CI 1.019-1.053, P &amp;lt; 0.001; HR 4.270, 95% CI 1.337-13.630, P = 0.014, respectively). A significant interaction between sex and LGE in anterior wall/apex was observed, being this regions associated with MAACE only in male patients (p for interaction = 0.033). Although related to the arrhythmic endpoint at the Kaplan-Meier survival curves, neither DCM echocardiographic phenotype, nor LV ejection fraction ≤35% remained statistically associated to MAACE at the multivariate analysis. Age, genetic mutations, right ventricular involvement, proband status, LV-LGE extension (number of segments) were not statistically related to the study endpoint. Conclusions In this selected cohort of patients with LV ring-like scar and either a genetic test or family history, malignant arrhythmic events were predicted by male sex, QRS width and LGE in anterior wall and/or apex.Graphical Abstract

A new hematologic predictor of major adverse events after cardiac surgery: red cell distribution width to lymphocyte ratio.

The perioperative risk factors that cause severe morbidity and prolongation of postoperative hospital stay after cardiac surgery should be determined. Various scores have been used to predict morbidity and mortality. Preoperative blood counts are considered potential biomarkers of inflammation and oxidative stress. Inflammatory and immune imbalances may have a significant impact on postoperative adverse events. The present study aimed to investigate the association and potential predictive properties of red cell distribution width/ lymphocyte ratio (RLR) for major adverse events in adult patients who underwent coronary surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass. After approval from the ethics committee, pre- and post-operative data of 700 patients were obtained from the electronic database of the hospital, intra- and post-operative anesthesia, and intensive care unit follow-up charts. We performed a stepwise multiple logistic regression analysis to investigate the association of RLR with major adverse events in adult patients who underwent coronary surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass. Among 700 patients, 47 (6.7%) had major adverse events after surgery. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age (odds ratio [OR], 1.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-1.12; P < 0.001), mean platelet volume (OR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.07-2.06; P = 0.017), and RLR (OR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.02-1.43; P = 0.026) were significantly associated with major adverse events. RLR indicates the balance between inflammatory and immune responses. Therefore, it can be used to predict adverse events following coronary surgery.

Long-term outcomes following transcatheter aortic valve implantation with the Portico self-expanding valve

AimTranscatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is a mainstay in the management of severe aortic valve stenosis in elderly patients, but there is uncertainty on their long-term effectiveness. We aimed to assess the long-term outcome of patients undergoing TAVI with the Portico valve.MethodsWe retrospectively collected the data on patients in whom TAVI with Portico was attempted from 7 high-volume centres. Only patients theoretically eligible for 3 or more years of follow-up were included. Clinical outcomes, including death, stroke, myocardial infarction, reintervention for valve degeneration and hemodynamic valve performance were systematically assessed.ResultsA total of 803 patients were included, with 504 (62.8%) women, mean age of 82 years, median EuroSCORE II of 3.1%, and 386 (48.1%) subjects at low/moderate risk. The median follow-up was 3.0 years (3.0; 4.0). The composite of death, stroke, myocardial infarction, and reintervention for valve degeneration occurred in 37.5% (95% confidence interval: 34.1–40.9%), with all-cause death in 35.1% (31.8–38.4%), stroke in 3.4% (1.3–3.4%), myocardial infarction in 1.0% (0.3–1.5%), and reintervention for valve degeneration in 1.1% (0.6–2.1%). The mean aortic valve gradient at follow-up was 8.1 ± 4.6 mmHg, and at least moderate aortic regurgitation was present in 9.1% (6.7–12.3%). Independent predictors of major adverse events or death were: peripheral artery disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, estimated glomerular filtration rate, atrial fibrillation, prior pacemaker implantation, EuroSCORE II, and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (all p < 0.05).ConclusionsPortico use is associated with favorable long-term clinical outcomes. Clinical outcomes were largely impacted by baseline risk factors and surgical risk.

Prognostic role of acute myocardial infarction diagnostic criteria in patients presenting with non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction

Abstract Background The Fourth Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction (UDMI) defines acute myocardial infarction (AMI) as an acute myocardial injury associated with clinical evidence of acute myocardial ischemia. However, the prognostic role of each single diagnostic criteria has never been explored. Purpose To evaluate the prognostic role of the different diagnostic criteria of AMI according to the Fourth UDMI in patients with non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. Methods We enrolled all consecutive patients with NSTEMI undergoing coronary angiography at our Centre. The admission diagnosis was performed according to the current guidelines criteria, namely the detection of an increase and/or decrease of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, with at least one value above the 99th percentile of the upper reference limit and at least one of the following: symptoms of ischemia, ECG changes (new ST depression or negative T-waves), echocardiographic evidence of new regional wall motion abnormality. Patients with very high-risk NSTEMI were excluded. Patients were then divided into different subgroups according to the combination of diagnostic criteria presented at admission. A composite endpoint of all-cause mortality, re-hospitalization for myocardial reinfarction or heart failure was collected. The predictive value of AMI diagnostic criteria alone and their combination were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and subsequent Cox-regression analysis to find independent predictors of major adverse events. Results Our study population consisted of 2791 patients. The mean age was 68.3±13.4 and 31.5% were female. The mean follow-up time was 23.3±14.5 months. Depending on the AMI diagnostic criteria and their combination, patients were divided into three subgroups: 196 patients fulfilling only clinical criteria (group A), 187 with clinical and ECG-graphic criteria (group B) and 829 patients with clinical, ECG-graphic and echo-graphic criteria (group C). Baseline characteristics of the three groups were similar. At two-year follow-up, patients with clinical criteria alone exhibited the best outcome, whereas those with all three criteria fulfilled showed the worse prognosis (14.8% for group A vs 23.6% for group B vs 28.0% for group C; p-value &amp;lt;0.001). In multivariable Cox-regression model, the presence of clinical criteria alone was the independent predictor of better prognosis compared to the other diagnostic criteria combination (HR=0.48; CI 95% 0.31–0.74; p&amp;lt;0.001). Conclusions In non-very high-risk NSTEMI, not all diagnostic criteria have the same prognostic value. In fact, prognosis is significantly more favorable in patients exhibiting only the clinical criteria at admission. We hypothesize that the absence of ECG-graphic and echocardiographic alterations may indirectly indicate smaller infarct sizes that contribute to patients' outcomes. These findings could enhance the current risk stratification in patients admitted with NSTEMI. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.

Predictors of major adverse events and complications after ventricular septal defects surgical closure in children less than 10 kg

BackgroundVentricular septal defect (VSD) is the most common congenital cardiac defect for which outcomes are not uniform. There is a lack of consensus on the risk factors for the unfavorable outcomes following surgical VSD closure.AimThe aim of this study was to determine the risk factors and the predictors of major adverse events (MAEs) and complications following surgical closure of VSD in children weighing less than 10 kg.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study included children less than 10 kg who underwent surgical closure of congenital VSD of any type with or without associated congenital heart diseases. Patients with associated major cardiac anomalies were excluded. Preoperative, operative and postoperative data were collected from medical records.ResultsThis study included 127 patients 52.8% were males, the median age was 8.0 months (IQR = 6.0–11.0 months), and their median weight was 5.7 kg (IQR = 4.8–7.0). Mortality was in one patient (0.8%) Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that male sex group (observational data), previous pulmonary artery banding (PAB), and significant intraoperative residual VSD were significant risk factors for the development of MAEs (odds ratios were 3.398, 14.282, and 8.634, respectively). Trisomy 21 syndrome (odds ratio: 5.678) contributed significantly to prolonged ventilation. Pulmonary artery banding (odds ratio: 14.415), significant intraoperative (3 mm) residual VSD (odds ratio: 11.262), and long cross-clamp time (odds ratio: 1.064) were significant predictors of prolonged ICU stay, whereas prolonged hospital stay was observed significantly in male sex group (odds ratio: 12.8281), PAB (odds ratio: 2.669), and significant intraoperative (3 mm) residual VSD (odds ratio: 19.551).ConclusionsSurgical VSD repair is considered a safe procedure with very low mortality. Trisomy 21 was a significant risk factor for prolonged ventilation. Further, PAB, significant intraoperative residual of 3 mm or more that required a second pulmonary bypass, and a greater cross-clamp time were significant predictors of MAE and associated complications with prolonged ICU and hospital stay.

Predictors of major adverse events of cardiovascular disease in individuals with early ischemic heart disease

Background and Aims : To identify the predictors of the combined endpoint (cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), stroke) in individuals with early onset (≤55 - men; ≤60 - women, years) ischemic heart disease.

Microvascular reactivity as a predictor of major adverse events in patients with on-pump cardiac surgery.

BackgroundMicrocirculatory disturbances are typically most severe during cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB), which occurs during cardiac surgeries. If microvascular reactivity compensates for microcirculatory disturbances during CPB, tissue hypoxemia can be minimized. The primary aim of this study was to assess whether microvascular reactivity during CPB could predict major adverse events (MAE) after cardiac surgery.MethodsThis prospective observational study included 115 patients who underwent elective on-pump cardiac surgeries. A vascular occlusion test (VOT) with near-infrared spectroscopy was performed five times for each patient: before the induction of general anesthesia, 30 min after the induction of general anesthesia, 30 min after applying CPB, 10 min after protamine injection, and post-sternal closure. The postoperative MAE was recorded. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve analysis was performed for the prediction of MAE using the recovery slope.ResultsOf the 109 patients, MAE occurred in 32 (29.4%). The AUROC curve for the recovery slope during CPB was 0.701 (P < 0.001; 95% CI [0.606, 0.785]). If the recovery slope during CPB was < 1.08%/s, MAE were predicted with a sensitivity of 62.5% and specificity of 72.7%.ConclusionsOur study demonstrated that the recovery slope of the VOT during CPB could predict MAE after cardiac surgery. These results support the idea that disturbances in microcirculation induced by CPB can predict the development of poor clinical outcomes, thereby demonstrating the potential role of microvascular reactivity as an early predictor of MAE after cardiac surgery.

Systemic Immune-Inflammation Index Predicts Major Cardiovascular Adverse Events in Patients with ST-Segment Elevated Myocardial Infarction.

ResumoFundamento O índice de inflamação imune sistêmica (SII, systemic immune-inflammation index) tem sido descrito como um novo marcador prognóstico em tumores e doenças cardiovasculares.Objetivos Investigar a associação entre eventos cardiovasculares adversos em pacientes com infarto agudo do miocárdio com supradesnivelamento do segmento ST (IAMCSST).Métodos Foi realizado um estudo observacional retrospectivo em 843 pacientes com IAMCSST. Os pacientes foram divididos em dois grupos segundo valores medianos de SII. A análise de regressão de Cox foi usada para detectar preditores independentes de eventos adversos cardiovasculares. A melhora na capacidade discriminatória pela adição do SII aos fatores de risco tradicionais – idade, hipertensão, diabetes mellitus, e sexo masculino para eventos adversos maiores foi calculada por estatística c, melhora da discriminação integrada (IDI), e melhora na reclassificação. Um valor de p bilateral <0,05 foi considerado estatisticamente significativo.Resultados O grupo com SII elevado apresentou idade mais avançada que o grupo com SII baixo (61,2±11,2 e 59,2±7,9, respectivamente, p=0,002). O grupo com SII elevado apresentou taxas mais altas de morte cardiovascular, infarto do miocárdio não fatal, acidente vascular cerebral não fatal, hospitalização por insuficiência cardíaca, revascularização, e eventos cardiovasculares adversos maiores que no grupo com SII baixo. O SII foi um preditor independente de todos os eventos mencionados. A adição do SII aos fatores de risco tradicionais melhorou sua capacidade discriminatória para eventos cardiovasculares. O SII foi superior à razão neutrófilo-linfócito e à razão plaqueta-linfócito para predizer eventos adversos cardiovasculares.Conclusão O SII foi um preditor independente de eventos adversos maiores em pacientes com IAMCSST e pode ser usado para melhorar a predição de eventos adversos risco, especialmente se combinado com fatores de risco tradicionais.

Machine learning models for prediction of adverse events after percutaneous coronary intervention

An accurate prediction of major adverse events after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) improves clinical decisions and specific interventions. To determine whether machine learning (ML) techniques predict peri-PCI adverse events [acute kidney injury (AKI), bleeding, and in-hospital mortality] with better discrimination or calibration than the National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR-CathPCI) risk scores, we developed logistic regression and gradient descent boosting (XGBoost) models for each outcome using data from a prospective, all-comer, multicenter registry that enrolled consecutive coronary artery disease patients undergoing PCI in Japan between 2008 and 2020. The NCDR-CathPCI risk scores demonstrated good discrimination for each outcome (C-statistics of 0.82, 0.76, and 0.95 for AKI, bleeding, and in-hospital mortality) with considerable calibration. Compared with the NCDR-CathPCI risk scores, the XGBoost models modestly improved discrimination for AKI and bleeding (C-statistics of 0.84 in AKI, and 0.79 in bleeding) but not for in-hospital mortality (C-statistics of 0.96). The calibration plot demonstrated that the XGBoost model overestimated the risk for in-hospital mortality in low-risk patients. All of the original NCDR-CathPCI risk scores for adverse periprocedural events showed adequate discrimination and calibration within our cohort. When using the ML-based technique, however, the improvement in the overall risk prediction was minimal.

Impact of renal impairment on atrial fibrillation: ESC-EHRA EORP-AF Long-Term General Registry.

BackgroundAtrial fibrillation (AF) and renal impairment share a bidirectional relationship with important pathophysiological interactions. We evaluated the impact of renal impairment in a contemporary cohort of patients with AF.MethodsWe utilised the ESC‐EHRA EORP‐AF Long‐Term General Registry. Outcomes were analysed according to renal function by CKD‐EPI equation. The primary endpoint was a composite of thromboembolism, major bleeding, acute coronary syndrome and all‐cause death. Secondary endpoints were each of these separately including ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic event, intracranial haemorrhage, cardiovascular death and hospital admission.ResultsA total of 9306 patients were included. The distribution of patients with no, mild, moderate and severe renal impairment at baseline were 16.9%, 49.3%, 30% and 3.8%, respectively. AF patients with impaired renal function were older, more likely to be females, had worse cardiac imaging parameters and multiple comorbidities. Among patients with an indication for anticoagulation, prescription of these agents was reduced in those with severe renal impairment, p < .001. Over 24 months, impaired renal function was associated with significantly greater incidence of the primary composite outcome and all secondary outcomes. Multivariable Cox regression analysis demonstrated an inverse relationship between eGFR and the primary outcome (HR 1.07 [95% CI, 1.01–1.14] per 10 ml/min/1.73 m2 decrease), that was most notable in patients with eGFR <30 ml/min/1.73 m2 (HR 2.21 [95% CI, 1.23–3.99] compared to eGFR ≥90 ml/min/1.73 m2).ConclusionA significant proportion of patients with AF suffer from concomitant renal impairment which impacts their overall management. Furthermore, renal impairment is an independent predictor of major adverse events including thromboembolism, major bleeding, acute coronary syndrome and all‐cause death in patients with AF.

Mortality and Major Adverse Events Improve With Increased Institutional Experience for Fenestrated and Branched Endovascular Aortic Repair

Objective: Our objective was to evaluate temporal trends in outcomes at our institution in the context a more heterogenous application of fenestrated/branched endovascular aneurysm repair (F/BEVAR). Methods: Patient and aneurysm characteristics, procedure details, and postoperative outcomes were collected for consecutive patients undergoing F/BEVAR between 2002 and February 2019 at our institution. Outcomes were compared between tertile 1 (T1, 2002–2010, n=47), T2 (2011–2014, n=47), and T3 (2015-February 2019, n=47). Results: We included 141 patients (74.8 ± 8.1 years, 83% male) with a mean follow-up of 28.0 ± 31.6 months. Proportion of patients with hypertension (63.8% T1, 85.1% T3, p=0.009), diabetes (6.4% T1, 29.7% T3, p=0.005), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD; 27.6% T1, 42.5% T3, p=0.07), and history of stroke (4.2% T1, 17% T3, p=0.07) increased over time. Aneurysm diameter (65.3±11.4mm) and extent (56.0% juxtarenal/pararenal, 22.0% type IV, 22.0% type I-III) did not differ between groups. Custom made devices were implanted in 96.5% of cases with 3.4 ± 0.7 vessels reimplanted/case. There was a trend toward increased history of aortic surgery (p=0.008) and less custom made devices (p=0.007) in T3. Total procedure time (383.5±119.2 minutes T1, 316.2±88.4 T3, p=0.02), contrast volume (222.8±109.1 mL T1, 139.2±62.7ml T3, p<0.0001), and estimated blood loss (601.3±458.1 mL T1, 413.3±317.7 mL T3, p=0.02) decreased over time. Overall 30-day mortality was 6.3%, 10.6%-T1, 6.3%-T2, and 2.1%-T3 (p=0.09). We noted significant improvement in survival over time; 1- and 3-year survival was 79% and 56%, 89% and 83%, and 90% and 90%, for T1, T2, and T3, respectively (p=0.007). In all, 467 of 480 target vessels were revascularized (97.3% success). Reintervention rate (30-day: 13.5%, follow-up: 34.7%) and reintervention free survival was not significantly different between groups. Any major adverse event (MAE) occurred in 36.9% of patients overall with a significant decrease from early (51.1%), mid (34.9%), to late in our experience (25.5%, p=0.03). In multivariate analyses, increasing institutional experience (T3), procedure time, age, and sex were independent predictors of major adverse events. Conclusion: We have shown improvement in F/BEVAR outcomes including mortality, MAEs, and procedural metrics with increasing institutional experience. We postulate that a combination of advancements in technique, surgical team and postoperative care experience, graft design and stent technologies, and patient selection contributed to improvement in outcomes.

Obesity strongly predicts COVID-19-related major clinical adverse events in Coptic Clergy

Abstract Background and aims The Coptic Clergy, due to their specific work involving interaction with many people, could be subjected to increased risk of infection from COVID-19. The aim of this study, a sub-study of the COVID-19-CVD international study of the impact of the pandemic on the cardiovascular system, was to assess the prevalence of COVID-19 among Coptic priests and identify predictors of clinical adverse events. Methods Participants were geographically divided into three groups: Group-I: Europe and USA, Group II: Northern Egypt and Group III: Southern Egypt. Participants' demographic indices, cardiovascular risk factors, possible source of infection, number of liturgies, infection management and major adverse events (MAEs), comprising death, re-infection or mechanical ventilation, were assessed. Results Out of the 1,570 clergy serving in 25 dioceses, 226 (14.39%) were infected. Their mean age was 49.5±12 years and mean weekly number of liturgies was 3.44±1.0. The overall prevalence rate was 14.7% and did not differ between Egypt as a whole and overseas (p=0.23). Disease prevalence was higher in Northern Egypt clergy compared to Europe and USA combined (18.4% vs 12.1%, p=0.03) and tended to be higher than in Southern Egypt (18.4% vs. 13.6%, p=0.09). Ten priests (4.42%) died of COVID-19 related complications, 2 (0.9%) had re-infection and 27 (11.9%) suffered a MAE. The clergy from Southern Egypt were more obese but the remaining risk factors were less prevalent compared to those in Europe and USA (p=0.01). In multivariate analysis, obesity OR 4.184 (2.483 to 12.14; p=0.01); age OR 1.070 (0.014 to 1.130; p=0.02), and systemic hypertension OR 0.932 (0.874 to 0.994; p=0.007) predicted MAEs. Obesity was the most powerful independent predictor of MAE in Southern Egypt and systemic hypertension in Northern Egypt (p&amp;lt;0.05 for both). Conclusion Obesity is very prevalent among Coptic clergy and seems to be the most powerful independent predictor of major COVID-19-related adverse events. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None. Prevalence of SARS-CoV2 among Clergy

Prediction of Major Adverse Events After Endovascular Aneurysm Repair Using a Machine Learning Model

Predicting major adverse events (MAE), including type I and III endoleaks (ELs), after endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) is essential for clinical decision-making. No clinical decision instruments can reliably predict for MAE after EVAR. We developed a machine learning model (MLM) for predicting MAE within 3 years after elective EVAR using preoperative demographic information and aneurysm geometry. MLMs infer complex interaction without prespecification, possibly increasing the prediction accuracy compared with logistic regression models (LRMs). Patients with intact infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysms who had undergone EVAR with preoperative M2S reconstruction from 2010 to 2017 at a single institution were analyzed. The MAEs included aneurysm- or intervention-related death within 30 days, aneurysm rupture, the development of type I or III ELs, greater than three reinterventions, or EVAR explantation. Patients with <3 years of follow-up were excluded. Seventy-four preoperative predictors were evaluated. Of these, 30 were geometric factors derived from M2S models. The remaining factors were demographic. The performance of LRMs, random forest models (RFMs), and gradient-boosted models (GBMs) were evaluated using a 75% and 25% training and testing split, fivefold cross-validation, and receiver operating characteristic performance metric. A total of 250 patients were included (mean age, 71.9 ± 8.6 years; 86% male). The abdominal aortic aneurysm diameter was 56.0 ± 10.6 mm, and the infrarenal neck length was 24.6 ± 4.5 mm. Of the 250 patients, 40 (16%) had experienced MAE: 11 had died within 30 days, 3 had experienced aneurysm rupture, 10 had developed a type I EL, 10 had developed a type III EL, 10 had required graft explantation, and 4 had undergone four or more reinterventions. The most significant 45 predictive variables are shown in the Fig. All discrimination and calibration metrics favored the MLM over the LRM. The area under the curve for the LRM was 0.70 compared with 0.83 for the RFM and 0.77 for the GBM. The LRM classification accuracy was 68% compared with 84% for the RFM and GBM. The GBM showed superior calibration performance (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = .201). The removal of the geometric parameters significantly degraded the performance for all the models (likelihood ratio P < .001). The MLM displayed superior discrimination and calibration compared with the LRM in predicting MAE for the first 3 years after elective EVAR, possibly owing to the complex interaction terms in the predictive factors. The anatomic characteristics were more influential than the demographic data in predicting for MAE. Our MLM might predict for MAE after EVAR and thereby aid in selecting patients for EVAR, nonoperative observation, or open repair.

Incision Location Predicts 30-Day Major Adverse Events after Cosmetic Breast Augmentation: An Analysis of the Tracking Outcomes and Operations for Plastic Surgeons Database.

Enhanced understanding of early postoperative adverse events will improve patient counseling and preoperative risk modification to decrease complications in implant-based breast augmentation. This study seeks to evaluate the early major adverse events following cosmetic breast augmentation. A retrospective cohort analysis of the Tracking Outcomes and Operations for Plastic Surgeons database was performed to identify any women undergoing augmentation mammaplasty with an implant between 2008 and 2016. A total of 84,296 patients were studied. Major adverse events were identified in 0.37 percent. Seroma requiring drainage was observed in 0.08 percent, hematoma requiring drainage was observed in 0.15 percent, deep wound disruption was observed in 0.09 percent, and implant loss was observed in 0.11 percent. The authors identified multiple independent predictors of major adverse events, including body mass index greater than 30 kg/m2 (relative risk, 2.05; p < 0.001), tobacco use (relative risk, 2.25; p < 0.001), and diabetes mellitus (relative risk, 1.8; p < 0.05). Use of a periareolar incision significantly increased the risk of developing an early postoperative complication (relative risk, 1.77; p < 0.001). The findings of this study indicate an early major adverse event rate following cosmetic breast augmentation with implants of 0.37 percent. The authors identified multiple independent predictors of major adverse events, including body mass index greater than 30 kg/m2, tobacco use, and diabetes mellitus. In addition, when controlling for other factors, periareolar incision significantly increased the risk for major adverse events, when compared to an inframammary incision. Therapeutic, III.

Predictors of adverse events in uncomplicated type B aortic dissection: a systematic review with meta-analysis.

Thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) has been selectively used for uncomplicated acute type B aortic dissection (TBAD); however, not all cases will benefit from TEVAR. A search for high risk clinical and radiographic predictors for complications is ongoing. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to identify predictors of major adverse events during follow-up of uncomplicated TBAD, in order to identify who might benefit from elective TEVAR. A systematic review was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-analysis (PRISMA) Statement. 16 studies were included in a qualitative synthesis and 10 in the meta-analysis. Several risk factors associated to major adverse events have been described, including: 1) aortic diameter ≥40 mm; 2) greater false lumen diameter (>22 mm); 3) patent false lumen; 4) primary entry tear >10 mm; and 5) greater number of false lumen vessels origin. Quantitative synthesis identified an aortic diameter ≥40 mm significantly associated with major adverse events (HR=3.56; P<0.00001). Reporting of false lumen status, aortic diameters and growth, and demographic data was not always congruent with the most recent recommendations by Society for Vascular Surgery and Society of Thoracic Surgeons, published in 2020. Acute and subacute patients with uncomplicated TBAD presenting with an aortic diameter ≥40 mm and solely treated with BMT have an increased hazard of developing major adverse events (HR), making them potential candidates for TEVAR. Remaining risk factors analysed have weaker evidence.

Predictors of success and complications in laser lead extraction

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background Extraction of cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED) leads using excimer laser is in use since &amp;gt; 20 years, but the predictors of success, all-cause complications and mortality are not yet sufficiently statistically evaluated. Method All consecutive laser extractions performed at our institution between September 2011 and March 2020 with lead age &amp;gt; 12 months were included and retrospectively analysed. Results 792 leads (mean age 75 months) were extracted during 335 procedures. The indication for extraction was pocket infection in 59%, CIED endocarditis in 25%, lead dysfunction or upgrade in 14% and others in 2%. 94.6% of leads were extracted complete, 4.2% partial (&amp;lt; 4 cm rest) and the extraction failed in 1.3% of the leads (retention of ≥ 4 cm rest). Multivariable analysis identified lead age &amp;gt; 7.5 years (odds ratio [OR] 6.5; p = 0.0281), broken leads (OR 28.0; p = 0.0009) and implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) leads (OR 6.5; p = 0.0010) as independent predictors of failed extraction. CIED-endocarditis was independently associated with complete extraction (OR 3.3; p = 0.0218). Complete procedural success or clinical success was achieved in 330 of 335 procedures (98.6%). The lead extraction failed in five cases (1.5%). Major procedure-associated adverse events (injuries of the great vessels or heart) occurred in four cases (1.2%). Two patients died perioperatively (0.6%). Minor complications occurred in 13 cases (3.9%). Major adverse events (MAE) causally not related to the procedure occurred in 18 (5.4%) of the patients. The most frequent MAE was postoperative aggravation of the sepsis (10 patients; 3.0%). Independent predictors of major adverse events were CIED-endocarditis (OR 6.0; p = 0.0175), preoperative C-reactive-protein (CRP) &amp;gt; 35 mg/l (OR 3.8; p = 0.0412) and body mass index (BMI) ≥ 25 kg/m2 (OR 5.0; p = 0.0489). Ten patients (3%) died during the hospital stay. CIED-endocarditis with preoperative CRP &amp;gt; 35 mg/l was independently associated with hospital mortality in multivariable analysis (OR 10.7; p = 0.0020). The Kaplan-Meyer analysis of 30-day mortality showed a significantly worse survival of patients with endocarditis (Log-Rank p = 0.0102). Conclusion Leads &amp;gt; 7.5 years, broken leads and ICD leads are independent predictors of failed extraction. CIED endocarditis, CRP &amp;gt; 35 and BMI ≥ 25 are associated with MAE. CIED endocarditis is related to higher short-term mortality despite successful lead extraction. Abstract Figure. Predictors of major adverse events

Core-Peripheral Temperature Gradient and Skin Temperature as Predictors of Major Adverse Events Among Postoperative Pediatric Cardiac Patients

During episodes of low cardiac output, sympathetic neurohumoral responses with peripheral vasoconstriction result in an increase in the core-peripheral temperature gradient (CPTG). However, assessment of CPTG as a surrogate of low cardiac output and a predictor of outcomes in pediatric cardiac patients rarely has been performed. In this retrospective study, the authors assessed the prognostic abilities of CPTG, skin temperature, and serum lactate level for predicting clinical outcomes. A retrospective single-center study. Referral high-volume pediatric center. Patients younger than four months of age with congenital heart disease who underwent cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass. None. The primary outcome was a composite of one or more of the following major adverse events (MAEs) that occurred within seven days after surgery: death from any cause, cardiac arrest, emergency chest reopening, and requirement for extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. A total of 661 patients were included in the study. Univariate logistic regression analyses showed no significant difference in the odds for MAEs with CPTG at admission and at six hours after surgery and in the odds for MAEs with skin temperature at admission. On the other hand, the odds for MAEs increased significantly with increase in serum lactate level at admission (odds ratio [OR]: 1.54, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.26-1.87, p < 0.001) and at six hours after surgery (OR: 1.94, 95% CI: 1.50-2.51, p < 0.001). Areas under the receiver operating curve at admission for predicting MAEs were 0.531 for CPTG, 0.557 for skin temperature, and 0.713 for serum lactate. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed neither CPTG nor skin temperature at any time point was significantly associated with MAEs. Both CPTG and skin temperature had low performance for prediction of MAEs in children after cardiac surgery. Either of those markers, especially at admission, should not be used as a single marker for assessing the condition of a patient.