Predictor Of Long-term Renal Outcome Research Articles

Proteinuria and serum creatinine after 12\xa0months of treatment for lupus nephritis as predictors of long-term renal outcome: a case\u2013control study

BackgroundLupus nephritis (LN) is a major source of morbidity and mortality in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), with 10–25% of patients progressing to end-stage renal disease (ESRD).ObjectiveThis study aims to elucidate the predictive capabilities of 24-h proteinuria (24PTU) and serum creatinine (sCr) after 12 months of treatment with respect to long-term renal outcomes in LN in a single-center cohort of LN patients.MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed on 214 patients diagnosed with LN followed in our center. Values of 24PTU and sCr were assessed at baseline and after 3, 6 and 12 months, and after 5 years and/or the last evaluation. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 for 3 months or longer. End-stage renal disease (ESRD) was defined as the need for permanent dialysis. Receiver operating characteristics curves (ROC) were used to test the best cut-off value of 24PTU and sCr at 12 months who predict bad long-term renal outcomes. ResultsThe mean follow-up period was 11.2 ± 7.2 years. The best cut-off values for 24PTU and sCr as predictor of CKD were, respectively, 0.9 g/24 h and 0.9 mg/dL. ROC curve for 24PTU had a slightly lower performance than ROC curve for sCr as predictor for CKD (PTU AUC = 0.68; sCr AUC = 0.70), but sensitivity and specificity were better for 24PTU (24PTU: sensitivity = 63.5%, specificity = 71.2%; sCr: sensitivity = 54.8%, specificity = 75.3%). When the outcome was ESRD the best cut-off points were 0.9 g/24hs and 1.3 mg/dL for 24PTU and sCr, respectively, and the curve performance was better for 24PTU (PTU AUC = 0.72; sCr AUC = 0.61).ConclusionsIn this ethnically diverse population with LN followed for a long time (> 10 years), levels of 24PTU > 0.9/day at 12 months was a good predictor of bad long-term renal outcome. The serum creatinine > 0.9 mg/dL and > 1.3 mg/dL at 12 months were also good predictors of CKD and ESRD, respectively. Patients with 24PTU < 0.9 g/day and sCr < 1.3 mg/dL at 12 months are not likely to develop ESRD because of the high negative predictive values (NPV) (93.2% and 82%). 24PTU and sCr are relevant as components for a treat-to-target strategy for LN treatment, since their high NPV corroborates their importance as good predictors of long-term renal outcome.

Serologic and Histologic Predictors of Long-Term Renal Outcome in Biopsy-Confirmed IgA Nephropathy (Haas Classification): An Observational Study.

Background and objective: The Haas classification of IgA nephropathy should be validated for Asian populations. More detailed and newer predictions regarding renal outcome of IgA nephropathy remains mandatory. Materials: We conducted a retrospective cohort study between January 2003 and December 2013. Clinical, Pathological, and laboratory data were all collected via available medical records. A Mann–Whitney U test was used for continuous variables and the Chi-square test was implemented for categorical variables. A Kaplan–Meier curve was put in place in order to determine patient survival and renal survival. The Youden index and Cox proportional hazard regression were used to investigate the possible factors for renal survival and predictive power. Results: All 272 renal biopsy-confirmed IgAN patients were enrolled for further studies. The univariate analysis showed that risk factors for poor renal outcome included stage 4–5 of Haas classification (HR = 3.67, p < 0.001), a poor baseline renal function (HR = 1.02 and p < 0.001 for higher BUN; HR = 1.14 and p < 0.001 for higher serum creatinine; HR = 0.95, p < 0.001 for higher eGFR), IgG ≤ 907 (HR = 2.29, p = 0.003), C3 ≤ 79.7 (HR = 2.76, p = 0.002), a higher C4 (HR = 1.02, p = 0.026), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio > 2.75 (HR = 2.92, p < 0.001), and a platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥ 16.06 (HR = 2.02, p = 0.012). A routine-checked markers, such as neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, in order to predict the renal outcome, is recommended. Conclusions: This is the first study to demonstrate that Haas classification is also useful for establishing predictive values in Asian groups. A lower serum IgG (≤907 mg/dL) and serum C3 (≤79.7 mg/dL) were both risk factors for poor renal outcome. Additionally, this is the first study to reveal that serum C4 levels, an NLR > 2.75 and a PLR > 16.06, S could suggest poor renal outcome.

Is serum uric acid a predictor of long-term renal outcome in lupus nephritis?

Recent studies observed an association between increased serum uric acid (SUA) levels and renal damage in lupus. However, the predictive value of UA for the development of long-term renal dysfunction in lupus nephritis (LN) is still unknown. The aim of this study was to evaluate if SUA may be a predictor of long-term renal outcome in LN. Eighty biopsy-proven LN patients > 7years of follow-up were selected. SUA levels were measured in sera stored at - 70°C. All patients had serum stored from LN baseline, and 32 also had stored serum from 6 and 12months after LN. Renal outcome was addressed after 7years of follow-up to determine if SUA could be a predictor of long-term renal outcome. A good long-term renal outcome in 7years was defined as a creatinine clearance (CrCl) ≥ 90.0mL/min/1.73m2, and poor if CrCl < 90mL/min/1.73m2. Patients were divided in two groups according to the renal outcome to assess whether SUA levels at different time points of follow-up could differentiate such groups. An ROC curve was plotted to assess accuracy. SUA levels at baseline and 6months were not able to differentiate good from poor long-term renal outcomes in LN (respectively p = 0.37, p = 0.28), but at 12months (p = 0.02), they could clearly differentiate the two groups. ROC curve (12months) accuracy was 0.76. SUA cutoff was 6.05mg/dL (sensitivity = 0.67, specificity = 0.89, positive predictive value = 0.85, negative predictive value = 0.73). SUA levels < 6.05mg/dL at 12months of follow-up is a predictor of good long-term renal outcome in lupus nephritis. • Previous studies reported an association between increased serum uric acid level and short-term renal damage in lupus patients. • The predictive value of serum uric acid for the development of long-term renal dysfunction in lupus nephritis was never assessed. • At 12months of follow-up serum uric acid clearly differentiated good from poor long-term renal outcome in lupus nephritis. • SUA level < 6.05mg/dL at 12months of follow-up was a predictor of good long-term renal outcome in lupus nephritis.

Crescents and Global Glomerulosclerosis in Chinese IgA Nephropathy Patients: A Five-Year Follow-Up

Background/Aims: This study aims to evaluate the clinical significance of crescent and global glomerulosclerosis formation on renal outcome in patients with IgA nephropathy (IgAN). Methods: Biopsy-proven primary IgAN patients from West China Hospital of Sichuan University were studied retrospectively between 2008 and 2015. Clinicopathological features and treatment modalities were recorded. The patients were divided into several groups on the basis of cellular and/or fibrocellular crescents scores and global glomerulosclerosis scores. Crescent (C) was scored according to the updated Oxford classification (C0/C1/C2). Global glomerulosclerosis (G) was scored according to the frequency of global glomerulosclerosis: G0 (≤25% of glomeruli), G1 (26–50% of glomeruli), and G2 (> 50% of glomeruli). The primary endpoint was defined as a 50% reduction in renal function or end stage renal disease. Patients were followed up for at least 12 months, or shorter if they reached study endpoints. 1328 patients with IgAN were recruited. Mean follow-up time was 46.1±23.6 months. The percentage of patients with C1 and C2 was 19.3% and 5.9% respectively. Higher crescent scores was associated with lower estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR), decreased serum albumin levels, increased amounts of urine protein, higher serum creatinine, as well as greater proportions of M1 and E1. The percentage of patients with G0, G1 and G2 was 70.5%, 20.7% and 8.8%, respectively. Elevated glomerulosclerosis scores were associated with lower eGFR levels, increased amounts of urine protein, higher levels of serum creatinine, higher incidences of arterial hypertension, as well as greater proportions of M1. There was a significantly higher proportion of T1/2 in patients with G2. In a multivariate model, crescent and global glomerulosclerosis were identified as independent predictors of decreased renal survival. Conclusion: Global glomerulosclerosis and crescents, as detected in renal biopsies, are strong predictors of long-term renal outcome of IgAN.

Renal relapse in antineutrophil cytoplasmic autoantibody-associated vasculitis: unpredictable, but predictive of renal outcome.

To determine predictors of renal relapse and end-stage renal failure (ESRF) in patients with ANCA-associated vasculitis. Data from four European Vasculitis Society randomized controlled trials, conducted roughly simultaneously between 15 March 1995 and 30 September 2002, was pooled to determine predictors of long-term renal outcome. The respective trial inclusion criteria covered the entire spectrum of disease severity. Baseline predictors of time to first renal relapse and time to ESRF were assessed by competing events analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression. The effect of renal relapse on time to ESRF was assessed by adding renal relapses to the competing events analysis as a time-varying covariate. The number of patients participating was 535; mean serum creatinine (±s.d.) at entry was 341 ± 321 µmol/l and 19.7% developed ESRF. One or more renal relapse(s) was experienced by 101 patients. Multivariable regression analysis demonstrated that, in addition to impaired baseline renal function, developing ⩾1 renal relapse was an independent risk factor for ESRF (subhazard ratio 9; 95% CI 4, 19; P < 0.001). No predictive factors for renal relapse were found. In addition to baseline renal function, the occurrence of renal relapses is an important determinant of ESRF in patients with ANCA-associated vasculitis. We did not find any clinical predictors for renal relapse itself, including disease activity elsewhere. In light of the silent nature of renal relapse in ANCA-associated vasculitis, we stress the need for long-term vigilant monitoring for early signs of renal relapse and propose performing 3-monthly urinalysis. This will enable timely treatment and help further improve renal outcome.

A proteinuria cut-off level of 0.7 g/day after 12 months of treatment best predicts long-term renal outcome in lupus nephritis: data from the MAINTAIN Nephritis Trial

BackgroundAlthough an early decrease in proteinuria has been correlated with good long-term renal outcome in lupus nephritis (LN), studies aimed at defining a cut-off proteinuria value are missing, except a...

Predictors of long-term renal outcome in lupus nephritis trials: lessons learned from the Euro-Lupus Nephritis cohort.

There is a need to determine which response measures in lupus nephritis trials are most predictive of good long-term renal function. We used data from the Euro-Lupus Nephritis Trial to evaluate the performance of proteinuria, serum creatinine (Cr), and urinary red blood cells (RBCs) as predictors of good long-term renal outcome. Patients from the Euro-Lupus Nephritis Trial with proteinuria, serum Cr, and urinary RBC measurements at 3, 6, or 12 months and with a minimum of 7 years of followup were included (n = 76). We assessed the ability of these clinical biomarkers at 3, 6, and 12 months after randomization to predict good long-term renal outcome (defined as a serum Cr value ≤1.0 mg/dl) at 7 years. Receiver operating characteristic curves were generated to assess parameter performance at these time points and to select the best cutoff for individual parameters. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated for the parameters alone and in combination. A proteinuria value of <0.8 gm/day at 12 months after randomization was the single best predictor of good long-term renal function (sensitivity 81% and specificity 78%). The addition of serum Cr to proteinuria as a composite predictor did not improve the performance of the outcome measure; addition of urinary RBCs as a predictor significantly decreased the sensitivity to 47%. This study demonstrates that the level of proteinuria at 12 months is the individual best predictor of long-term renal outcome in patients with lupus nephritis. Inclusion of urinary RBCs as part of a composite outcome measure actually undermined the predictive value of the trial data. We therefore suggest that urinary RBCs should not be included as a component of clinical trial response criteria in lupus nephritis.

Overweight and obesity accelerate the progression of IgA nephropathy: prognostic utility of a combination of BMI and histopathological parameters

Although more than 40 years have passed since IgA nephropathy (IgAN) was first reported, predicting the renal outcome of individual IgAN patients remains difficult. Emerging epidemiologic evidence indicates that overweight and obesity are risk factors for end-stage renal disease. We aimed to elucidate the outcome of overweight IgAN patients and improve our ability to predict the progression of IgAN based on a combination of body mass index (BMI) and histopathological parameters, including maximal glomerular area (Max GA). Forty-three adult IgAN patients whose estimated glomerular filtration rate was ≥50 ml/min/1.73 m(2) were enrolled in this study. Renal biopsy specimens were evaluated according to the Oxford classification of IgAN. A Kaplan-Meier analysis and the multivariate Cox proportional hazards method were used to evaluate 10-year kidney survival and the impact of covariates. The ability of factors to predict the progression of IgAN was evaluated by their diagnostic odds ratio (DOR). A BMI ≥25 kg/m(2) was found to be an independent predictor of a ≥1.5-fold increase in serum creatinine value (DOR 7.4). The combination of BMI ≥25 kg/m(2), Max GA ≥42,900 μm(2), and presence of mesangial hypercellularity (Oxford M1) optimally raised predictive power for disease progression of IgAN (DOR 26.0). A combination of BMI ≥25 kg/m(2), the Oxford classification M1, and a Max GA ≥42,900 μm(2) can serve as a predictor of long-term renal outcome of IgAN.

Current management of lupus nephritis: popular misconceptions

The management of lupus nephritis is typified by popular misconceptions: that there is a 'standard of care', that treatment has well-defined aims and that the optimum length of treatment is established. In reality, however, uncertainties still exist and the evidence base remains weak. Until recently, initial therapy for class IV lupus nephritis typically involved intravenous cyclophosphamide, yet although cyclophosphamide is superior to azathioprine in improving renal function, it is not superior in terms of mortality. In fact, recent studies show mycophenolate mofetil to be superior to cyclophosphamide in terms of response rate and safety profile and at least as effective as other immunosuppressants. The role of steroids is unclear. Clearly, no standard of care exists in lupus nephritis. The Euro-Lupus Nephritis Trial found that treatment response at six months, in terms of reduced serum creatinine and proteinuria, was the best predictor of long-term renal outcome. Proteinuria, however, can take a long time to reach baseline levels, and normalization of urine is not the same as loss of histological disease activity. Response to treatment thus is not the same as disease remission. Although treatment should aim to reduce the risk of end-stage renal disease and death, control of proteinuria and prevention of flares are also important. Patients who have nephritic flares are almost seven times as likely to progress to end-stage renal disease compared with those who do not. Regimens involving maintenance phases have been developed, but uncertainty remains about the risk of flares and how they can be predicted. The optimum duration of treatment has yet to be determined.

Prognostic Value of Urinary Interleukin 6 in Patients with IgA Nephropathy: An 8-Year Follow-Up Study

We evaluated the significance of urinary IL-6 levels in the prediction of long-term renal outcome in patients with IgA nephropathy (IgAN). Fifty-nine patients with biopsy-proven IgAN were enrolled in this study. All patients had a creatinine clearance (Ccr) greater than 80 ml/min and normal serum creatinine concentration (Scr) on enrollment and were followed for 8.07 ± 1.72 years. Twenty- four-hour urine samples were obtained and urinary IL-6 was measured by ELISA. Fifteen patients exhibited a worsening of renal function (progressor). Renal function of the remaining 44 patients was stable during follow-up (non-progressor). The urinary IL-6 levels of progressors on enrollment were significantly higher than those of non-progressors (3.8 ± 3.8 and 1.8 ± 1.5 ng/day, respectively, p = 0.0138). We calculated the risk ratio for the progression to renal failure. Patients with a urinary IL-6 level greater than 2.5 ng/day at diagnosis had a 7.8-fold higher risk for the progression of the disease (95% CI 1.31–46.47, p = 0.024) compared with those whose urinary IL-6 level was less than 1.0 ng/day. In conclusion, urinary IL-6 levels could be used as a predictor of long-term renal outcome in patients with IgAN. Patients with a urinary IL-6 level greater than 2.5 ng/day at diagnosis may have a worse prognosis.