Predictor Of Long-term Mortality Research Articles

Developing a multi-center registry of peripheral artery disease using natural language processing: unlocking the power of the electronic health record

Abstract Background Although peripheral artery disease (PAD) is common and associated with a high risk of mortality, contemporary PAD research remains limited due to poor accuracy of diagnosis codes in the electronic health record (EHR). We previously developed and validated a novel natural language processing (NLP) algorithm that can extract ankle brachial index (ABI) and toe-brachial index (TBI) values from clinical documents and identify patients with PAD with high accuracy (positive predictive value 92.4%). Purpose Scale the NLP system for developing a nationwide registry of PAD in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA), the largest integrated health system in the U.S. that provides care to ~9 million Veterans across 130 sites. Describe the baseline characteristics and mortality outcomes among participants and identify predictors of long-term mortality. Methods A total of 1,182,025 documents from vascular and radiology procedures during 2013-2020 were processed by the NLP system. After excluding non-ABI vascular studies, patients with a known diagnosis of PAD prior to 2015, patients younger than 40 years of age, and those who do not regularly follow-up in the VHA, we identified 107,711 patients with newly diagnosed PAD during 2015-2020. Patients were followed longitudinally using the VA’s electronic health record data. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to examine predictors of long-term mortality. Results The mean age was 70.5 years; 97.3% were males, and 18.5% were of Black race. The mean ABI value was 0.78 (SD: 0.26) and the mean TBI value was 0.51 (SD: 0.19). There was a high prevalence of hypertension (83.6%), heart failure (20.8%), diabetes (53.6%), renal failure (22.1%) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (32.4%, Table 1). At 1-year, 9.6% of patients had died and this proportion increased to 25.4% at 3 years. Although nearly all patient variables were significantly associated with mortality, older age, severe PAD at diagnosis, diabetes, heart failure, renal failure and COPD were the strongest predictors of long-term mortality. Black race was associated with lower hazard of long-term mortality. Conclusions Using a previously validated novel NLP algorithm that extracts ABI and TBI values from clinical documents, we have successfully developed a registry of newly diagnosed PAD in the VHA. Ongoing studies from our cohort will yield important insights into the association between clinical management of PAD and clinical outcomes, with the goal of identifying opportunities for improving care.

The prognostic value of metabolic dysfunction associated steatotic liver disease in acute myocardial infarction

Abstract Background Patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) are at increased risk of incident cardiovascular disease. However, the clinical characteristics and prognostic importance of MASLD in patients presenting with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have yet to be examined. Methods This study compared the characteristics, and outcomes of patients with and without MASLD presenting with AMI at a tertiary centre in Singapore. MASLD was defined as hepatic steatosis, with at least one of five metabolic criteria. Hepatic steatosis was determined using the Hepatic Steatosis Index. Propensity score matching was performed to adjust for age and sex. Kaplan-Meier curve was constructed for long-term all-cause mortality. Cox regression analysis was used to investigate independent predictors of long-term all-cause mortality. Results In this study of 4446 patients with AMI, 2223 patients with MASLD were matched with patients without MASLD using propensity scores. The mean follow-up duration was 3.4 ± 24 years. The MASLD group had higher rates of obesity, diabetes, and chronic kidney disease than their counterparts. Patients with MASLD had early excess all-cause mortality (6.8% vs 3.6%, p<0.001) at 30 days, with unfavorable mortality rates sustained in the long-term (18.3% vs 14.5%, p=0.001) compared to those without MASLD. After adjustment, MASLD remained independently associated with higher long-term all-cause mortality (HR 1.338, 95% CI 1.115-1.604). Conclusion MASLD embodies a higher burden of metabolic dysfunction and is an independent predictor of long-term mortality in the AMI population. Its early identification may be beneficial for risk stratification and provide therapeutic targets for secondary preventive strategies in AMI.Kaplan Meier curve of long-term all-caus

Causes and predictors of long-term mortality in patients referred to a cardiac rehabilitation program

Abstract Introduction Cardiac rehabilitation (CR) programs have proven to reduce short-term mortality in patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD) and hospitalization rates in patients with heart failure (HF) (1-3). However, there is insufficient evidence about long-term mortality (>24-36 months) for patients receiving treatments based on recent clinical practice recommendations. Purpose To assess the long-term prognosis and predictors of mortality in a heterogenous group of patients referred to cardiac rehabilitation, and to obtain a detailed overview of death causes. Methods An inferential analysis of consecutive patients referred for exercise-based CR at a single site between January 2016 and January 2021 was performed. Included subjects were classified attending to four indications for referral: IHD, HF, valvular heart disease (VHD) and cancer therapy-related cardiovascular toxicity (CTR-CVT). Patients who did not initiate the CR program or were referred for other indications were excluded. The primary endpoint was all cause death. The secondary endpoint was cardiovascular (CV) death. A survival analysis was performed using Kaplan Meier estimates for each referral indication and a Cox proportional hazards model was fitted to investigate mortality predictors. The initiation of the exercise program was considered the inclusion date, and patients were followed until they met the primary endpoint or censored by January 2024. Results A total of 1180 patients were included in the analysis (81% male, mean age 61 ± 11 years), with a median follow-up of 5.3 years. Most of the patients had been referred due to IHD (87%), while the proportion for HF, VHD, and CTR-CVT was 9.9%, 1.8% and 1.4%, respectively. Seventy-eight patients (6.6%) died during follow-up, with a Kaplan-Meier estimated survival of 94.5% at 5 years (95% CI 93.2%-95.9%). Nineteen patients (24.4%) died due to a cardiovascular event, mostly sudden cardiac death (47%). The predominant non-CV causes of death were infectious disease (36%) and cancer (34%). A multivariate Cox model analysis (Table 1) showed an increased risk of all cause death for patients referred due to HF (HR 2.95, 95% CI 1.33 - 6.55), VHD (HR 5.55, 95% CI 1.19 - 25.9) and CTR-CVT (22.47, 95% IC 7.32 - 68.95) when compared to IHD (Figure 1). Other significant predictors of mortality were LVEF <40%, male sex, age, diabetes, peripheral vascular disease, and multivessel coronary disease. Only LVEF <40%, VHD, CTR-CVT and peripheral vascular disease were independent predictors of CV death. Conclusion Patients who initiated an exercise-based CR program had a low risk of all cause death at 5 years. Indications for CR other than IHD were associated with higher mortality rates after adjusting for confounder variables, likely due to a selection bias of patients in advanced stages of the disease.Table 1.Cox models for all-cause deathFigure 1.KM plot for all-cause death

Artificial intelligence assessment of heart failure and mortality after acute stroke

Abstract Background/Introduction The adverse cardiovascular outcomes following a stroke have shown significant associations with post-stroke mortality. However, studies focusing on predicting heart failure and its impact on long-term mortality are scarce. Purpose To address this gap, we employed an commercially approved artificial intelligence/machine learning enabled software as a medical device (AiTiALVSD version 1.00.00) which uses only 12 lead electrocardiogram data, resulting probability score for predicting left ventricular systolic dysfunction. We derived the AiTiALVSD probability score from initial ECGs at stroke admission, and assess its implications for prediction of heart failure and long-term mortality. Methods We collected data from 335 ischemic stroke patients admitted to a cardiovascular center during acute periods between 2013 and 2019. The AiTiALVSD score was employed to predict heart failure with reduced ejection fraction and heart failure with mild reduced ejection fraction, analyzed through logistic regression. Subsequently, we used the Cox Hazard proportional model, incorporating the AiTiALVSD score and clinical factors, to predict long-term mortality. Results The model incorporating the AiTiALVSD score with clinical variables demonstrated a higher AUC for predicting heart failure (0.905 [95% CI, 0.827-0.927] vs. 0.828 [95% CI, 0.749-0.907], p<0.004) than clinical variables alone. Moreover, for long-term mortality prediction, this model outperformed the conventional mortality score (AUC, 0.884 [95% CI, 0.836-0.933] vs. 0.755 [95% CI, 0.690-0.820], p<0.001). Conclusion Multivariable models which combine the AiTiALVSD score with clinical factors, effectively predicts heart failure and long-term mortality. This model could enhance therapeutic strategy tailoring by providing acute phase prognostic predictions for individual stroke patients.Prediction performance for heart failurePrediction performance for mortality

Prognostic value of myocardial redox signalling: a machine learning multi-omics approach

Abstract Background Oxidative stress has been proposed to be implicated in cardiovascular pathology. Studies have linked myocardial oxidative stress with the development of atrial fibrillation, but its role in the prediction of long-term outcomes and mortality is yet to be elucidated. Purpose To apply discovery network transcriptomics and genomics to atrial tissue (AT) obtained from patients undergoing cardiac surgery, to phenotype myocardial redox-state and identify potential therapeutic targets. Methods We included 1,032 patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Arm 1 included 258 patients in whom atrial tissue (right atrial appendage) was used for ex-vivo quantification of NOX-derived superoxide by lucigenin-enhanced chemiluminescence. Arm 2 included 414 patients in whom exploratory, unsupervised gene network analysis in human atrial tissue RNA sequencing data was performed to identify atrial tissue redox-sensitive signatures (blue signature). Arm 3 included 881 patients genotyped with the genome-wide SNP array UK Biobank Axiom Array and used for machine learning construction of GenRedOx, a SNP model built to predict the blue transcriptomic signature. Associations with future incidence of major adverse myocardial events (MAME: cardiovascular death and/or heart failure) was assessed across all arms using cox regression models (adjusted for age, sex, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, diabetes mellitus, body mass index, and plasma TNFa). Results Over a median follow-up of 5.27 years [IQR: 4.29-6.83] high atrial tissue (AT) NOX-derived superoxide was independently associated with MAME risk (Adj. HR[95%CI]: 11.7 [2.18 , 62.82], p=0.004, a). Unsupervised transcriptomic analysis in Arm 2 revealed 15 coexpressed gene ‘modules’ or 'signatures' (b). The blue signature was significantly associated with AT superoxide production with "immune response-regulating and activating signalling" being amongst the top enriched pathways. Patients with high eigengene values for the blue signature showed a 5.5-fold higher adjusted risk of MAME (c). In Arm 3, extreme gradient boosting of SNP data, trained using the blue transcriptomic signature as ground truth, revealed GenRedOx (d), a genomic artificial intelligence score, which was found to be prognostic of MAME in the validation stage (e). Homozygosity for the minor allele of SNP rs723897 in the Chemokine-Like Factor Super Family 7 (CMTM7) gene had the highest gain in the model. Conclusion We present for the first time two novel human myocardial transcriptomic and genomic signatures that reflect changes in redox state and identify long-term cardiovascular risk. Targeting pathways in the myocardium related with immune response signalling may lead to the development of novel therapeutics in cardiovascular disease.

Effect of nutritional guidance on mortality and composite endpoints in patients with acute myocardial infarction: a single center retrospective cohort study

Abstract Background/Introduction Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) stands as a major global cause of mortality. Various intervention strategies, such as pre-hospital care, reperfusion therapies, pharmacological interventions, dietary modifications, and exercise therapies, have been researched to improve patient prognosis (1,2). While reports suggest the efficacy of the Mediterranean diet, there remains a lack of evidence regarding the impact of nutritionist-led dietary guidance on the prognosis of AMI patients. Purpose This study aimed to elucidate whether nutritional guidance by nutritionists who have national qualifications would improve the mortality and the primary composite endpoint (including acute decompensated heart failure, stroke, and acute coronary syndrome) of patients following an acute myocardial infarction. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted, enrolling 446 consecutive AMI patients who underwent emergency coronary angiography and percutaneous coronary interventions between September 1, 2015, and October 31, 2023. Patients meeting the universal definition of myocardial infarction were included (3). After excluding 37 in-hospital deaths, evaluations for all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and composite endpoints were performed during follow-up in 409 patients. Nutritionists guided 223 patients (54.5%) during hospitalization in this study. The nutritional guidance used in our study was also based on the definition of adequate caloric intake of 25–30 kcal per ideal body weight (kg). Under an appropriate total energy intake, a fat energy ratio of 20–25% and a carbohydrate energy ratio of 50–60% are recommended, with protein and lipid restrictions depending on the disease state. Results During a median follow-up of 39 months, 24 cases of all-cause mortality (5.9%) and 6 cases of cardiovascular mortality (1.5%) were recorded. Additionally, 15 cases of nonfatal stroke (3.7%), 17 cases of nonfatal acute coronary syndrome (4.2%), and 20 cases of hospitalizations for acute decompensated heart failure (4.9%) were observed. Kaplan–Meier curves demonstrated significantly higher incidence rates of death and primary composite endpoints among patients without nutritional guidance. The multivariate Cox regression model incorporated all variables exhibiting statistically significant associations with long-term mortality, and the primary composite endpoints. The multivariate Cox regression model revealed nutritional guidance as a significant predictor for long-term mortality but not for primary composite endpoints. Conclusion Nutritional guidance for AMI patients may improve overall mortality. Further research is warranted to explore the physiological impacts of improved diets resulting from such guidance and their effects on enhancing prognosis.

Clinical characteristics and long-term outcomes of patients with heart failure with supra-normal ejection fraction: data from LECRA-HF registry

Abstract Background Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) remains insufficiently characterized subgroup of HF with increasing prevalence and limited treatment options. Relationship between clinically assessed left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and survival showed that LVEF ≥65% is associated with higher mortality. Therefore, a novel category of heart failure with supra-normal left ventricular ejection fraction (HFsnEF) was introduced in 2019. However, clinical characteristics and long-term outcomes of HFsnEF patients remain insufficiently elucidated. Purpose We sought to characterize Polish HFsnEF patients and to provide their long-term mortality in comparison to HFpEF. Methods Of 1186 patients enrolled in the single-center Lesser Poland Cracovian Heart Failure (LECRA-HF) Registry between 2009 and 2019 and hospitalized due to HF decompensation 261 (22%) of them were those with LVEF ≥50%. 40 (15.3%) of them were classified as HFsnEF (LVEF ≥65%) and the remaining 221 (84.7%) as HFpEF. The data including patients’ demography, anthropometric measurements, cardiovascular risk factors, prior cardiological treatment and other comorbidities were collected. The long-term follow-up of all-cause mortality was obtained from the Polish National Death Registry. Results HFsnEF patients were less frequently hypertensive (75 vs 88.2%, P=0.026) and had higher baseline LVEF (65 [65-70] vs 55 [50-60] %, P<0.001) than HFpEF subjects. Furthermore, HFsnEF patients presented lower INR (1.1 [1-1.6] vs 1.3 [1.1-1.9], P=0.027) and total protein level (57 [25-63] vs (65.2 [60.2-69.9] g/L, P=0.008) on admission. HFsnEF patients were less frequently treated on discharge with mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (25 vs 46.2%, P=0.013) as well as loop diuretics (60 vs 76%, P=0.017). The Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that all-cause mortality is higher in HFsnEF than in HFpEF (65.0 vs 55.2%, P=0.044, Figure 1). The independent predictors of long-term mortality were age and diagnosis of HFsnEF (HR 1.037, 95% CI 1.018-1.056 and HR 1.665, 95% CI 1.063-2.608, respectively). Conclusions Our findings indicate that every seventh Polish patient admitted with HFpEF could be classified as HFsnEF. Baseline characteristics of HFsnEF patients are different than HFpEF. Simultaneously, the HFsnEF diagnosis is associated with lower long-term survival.

Baseline characteristics, management patterns and outcome in patients with pulmonary embolism and malignancy: Insights from a single-centre study

Abstract Background and aim The presence of malignancy is an important factor that increases the risk of venous thromboembolism. On the other hand, acute pulmonary embolism (PE) is one of the main causes of death in this setting. In this study, we evaluated the impact of active malignancy on the treatment choices, and short and long term clinical outcomes in patients with acute PE. Methods In this study conducted in a tertiary center, 872 acute PE patients (age 61.6±16.8 years, female 57.5 %) from different risk categories were treated with thrombolytic, anticoagulant and catheter-based therapies in accordance with currently available acute PE guidelines. The population was retrospectively analyzed and divided into two groups according to the presence of active malignancy. Results Active malignancy was documented in 129 (14.8 %) patients. In the groups with and without malignancy, the proportions of low-, intermediate-low-, intermediate-high-, and high-risk PE patients were 3.1 % vs. 15.6 %, 17.8 % vs. 16.7 %, 60.5 % vs. 60 %, and 18.6 % vs. 7.7 %, respectively (p<0.001). While the two groups did not differ in terms of echocardiographic and computed tomographic pulmonary angiography (CTPA) characteristics, the presence of contraindications for thrombolytic were more frequent in the malignancy group (22.5% vs. 10.9%, p<0.001). Ultrasound-assisted thrombolysis (USAT), rheolytic thrombectomy (RT), systemic thrombolysis (ST) and anticoagulation-alone (AC) therapies were noted in 27.3 %, 6.4 %, 6.4 % and 49.7 % of overall PE patients. The RT and AC therapies were more frequent in PE patients with malignancy whereas ST and USAT were more frequently used in the absence of malignancy. Notably, lytic dosages and treatment durations in USAT and ST protocols were comparable between malignant and non-malignant PE cohorts. Regardless of the presence of malignancy and the treatment modality chosen, significant improvements were achieved in the clinical, echocardiographic and CTPA measures of the PE severity (p<0.001 for all). Major and minor bleeding rates were also similar in both groups, while in-hospital and, as expected, long-term mortality were higher in the malignancy cohort. Active malignancy and PESI score were found to be independent predictors for composite end-point of 60-day mortality and PE-related rehospitalization (adjusted odds ratio (OR): 2.43; 95 % CI: 1.32 - 4.47, p=0.04) and (OR: 1.02; 95 % CI: 1.01-1.01, p<0.001), respectively. Malignancy (OR: 3.5, 95 % CI: 2.15-5.75, p< 0.001) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR: 2.51, 95 % CI: 1.35-4.68, p< 0.003) were independent predictors of long-term mortality. Conclusion Concomitant malignancy adversely affects both short- and long-term outcomes in patients with acute PE. Although these patients are more vulnerable, it is possible to achieve satisfactory treatment success with acceptable bleeding rates with the inclusion of catheter-based methods as treatment option.Survival plot

Evaluation of naples prognostic score to predict long-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism

Abstract Background/Introduction APE mortality rates are still not satisfactory despite new diagnosis and treatment methods (1). Thus, risk classification is crucial due to the wide range of clinical presentations. Several risk stratifications have been developed such as simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI) (2). Nonetheless, there remains a need for an optimal indicator that can be conveniently measured with a high degree of precision to predict clinical outcomes. Naples prognostic score (NPS) is a newly defined index that is developed to determine the prognosis of cancer patients and reflects the inflammatory and nutritional status of the patients (3). Purpose The aim of our study was to determine the long-term prognostic value of NPS in APE patients. Methods Two hundred ninety-three patients diagnosed with APE between November 2016 and February 2022 were included in the study. NPS consists of 4 parameters: serum albumin, total cholesterol (TC) concentration, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR). Naples scores of all patients were calculated and the patients were divided into 2 groups according to their NPS and their long-term mortality was compared. The primary endpoint of the study was long-term mortality. Results The long-term mortality was observed in 38 patients out of 293 patients in the mean follow-up of 24 (16-42) months. In the low-Naples risk group (group 1), there were 215 patients, while the high-Naples risk group (group 2) had 78 patients. Multivariate analysis showed that NPS as a categorical parameter (HR: 3.458, 95%CI:1.734-6.896, p<0.001), NPS as a numerical parameter, (HR:1.651, 95%CI:1.217-2.241, p=0.001) and simplified pulmonary embolism severity index (sPESI) (HR:1.887, 95%CI:1.223-2.911), p=0.004) score were independent predictors of long-term mortality. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the model 2 with NPS as continuous had higher discriminative ability than the baseline model for detecting patients with mortality (Area under curve (AUC) values = 0.791 vs. 0.723, respectively, p=0.04) (Figure 1A). The long-term predictive capability of NPS was non-inferior than the sPESI score (Figure 1B). Conclusions The current study highlights that NPS, which reflects systemic inflammation and nutritional status may have potential to predict long-term mortality in APE patients. To our knowledge, this is the first study to show the relationship between long-term mortality and NPS in APE patients.

Comprehensive risk factor-based nomogram for predicting one-year mortality in patients with sepsis-associated encephalopathy

Sepsis-associated encephalopathy (SAE) is a frequent and severe complication in septic patients, characterized by diffuse brain dysfunction resulting from systemic inflammation. Accurate prediction of long-term mortality in these patients is critical for improving clinical outcomes and guiding treatment strategies. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the MIMIC IV database to identify adult patients diagnosed with SAE. Patients were randomly divided into a training set (70%) and a validation set (30%). Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and multivariate logistic regression were employed to identify significant predictors of 1-year mortality, which were then used to develop a prognostic nomogram. The model’s discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility were assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis, respectively. A total of 3,882 SAE patients were included in the analysis. The nomogram demonstrated strong predictive performance with AUCs of 0.881 (95% CI: 0.865, 0.896) in the training set and 0.859 (95% CI: 0.830, 0.888) in the validation set. Calibration plots indicated good agreement between predicted and observed 1-year mortality rates. The decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram provided greater net benefit across a range of threshold probabilities compared to traditional scoring systems such as Glasgow Coma Scale and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment. Our study presents a robust and clinically applicable nomogram for predicting 1-year mortality in SAE patients. This tool offers superior predictive performance compared to existing severity scoring systems and has significant potential to enhance clinical decision-making and patient management in critical care settings.

Short- and long-term outcomes in critically ill patients with primary glomerular disease: a case‒control study.

Glomerular diseases, encompassing primary and secondary forms, pose significant morbidity and mortality risks. Despite their impact, little is known about critically ill patients with primary glomerulopathy admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). We conducted a case‒control study of patients with primary glomerulopathy using the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database. Demographic, clinical, and outcome data were collected. Logistic regression and mediation analysis were performed to identify predictors of hospital and long-term mortality. Among 50,920 patients, 307 with primary glomerulopathy were included. Infectious and cardiovascular-related causes were the main reasons for ICU admission, with sepsis being diagnosed in more than half of the patients during their ICU stay. The hospital mortality rate was similar to that of the control group, with a long-term mortality rate of 29.0% three years post-ICU discharge. Reduced urine output and serum albumin were identified as independent predictors of hospital mortality, while serum albumin and the Charlson comorbidity index were significantly associated with long-term mortality. Notably, although acute kidney injury was frequent, it was not significantly associated with mortality. Additionally, reduced urine output mediates nearly 25% of the association between serum albumin and hospital mortality. Critically ill patients with primary glomerulopathy exhibit unique characteristics and outcomes. Although hospital mortality was comparable to that of the control group, long-term mortality remained high. The serum albumin concentration and Charlson Comorbidity Index score emerged as robust predictors of long-term mortality, highlighting the importance of comprehensive risk assessment in this population. The lack of an association between acute kidney injury and mortality suggests the need for further research to understand the complex interplay of factors influencing outcomes in this patient population.

SARS-CoV-2 RNAemia as a reliable predictor of long-term mortality among older adults hospitalized in pulmonary intermediate care units: a prospective cohort study

BackgroundSARS-CoV-2 viremia is associated with disease severity and high risk for in-hospital mortality. However, the impact of SARS-CoV-2 viremia on long-term outcomes in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 is poorly understood.MethodsWe conducted a prospective cohort study and recruited a group of older adult patients with COVID-19 admitted to pulmonary intermediate care units of Peking University Third Hospital during December 2022 and January 2023. The plasma level of SARS-CoV-2 RNA was determined by a standardized RT-PCR technique, and SARS-CoV-2 RNAemia was defined as a plasma viral load ≥ 50 copies/ml. In-hospital and follow-up (180-day) outcome data were collected.ResultsA total of 101 patients with an average of 80.4 years were recruited, and 63.4% of them were severe or very severe cases. Twenty-eight patients (27.7%) had SARS-CoV-2 RNAemia, with a median viral RNA load of 422.1 [261.3, 1085.6] copies/ml. Patients with SARS-CoV-2 RNAemia were more likely to develop critical cases and had a higher incidence of sepsis. Accordingly, they had a higher 180-day mortality (57.1% vs. 19.7%, P < 0.001), as well as in-hospital mortality (50.0% vs. 13.7%, P < 0.001), independent of age, disease severity, sepsis, lymphocyte count and C-Reactive protein. In addition, the risk for 180-day mortality increased with the SARS-CoV-2 RNA load in plasma. Plasma cytokines, including IL-6, IL-8 and IL-10, were higher in patients with SARS-CoV-2 RNAemia.ConclusionsOur study indicates that SARS-CoV-2 RNAemia serves as a useful biomarker for predicting mortality, especially long-term mortality, in older adult patients hospitalized in pulmonary intermediate care units.Trial registrationChinese Clinical Trial Registry website (No. ChiCTR2300067434).

Delta QRS and outcomes post CRT in the Resynchronization-Defibrillation for Ambulatory Heart Failure Trial

BackgroundFor patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction and prolonged QRS duration, cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) can improve cardiac electromechanical synchrony and prevent adverse clinical outcomes. ObjectiveThis study sought to investigate the role of delta QRS duration (ΔQRSd) in predicting clinical response to CRT. MethodsThe RAFT (Resynchronization-Defibrillation for Ambulatory Heart Failure Trial) study randomized 1798 patients to CRT with defibrillator or implantable cardioverter-defibrillator alone. Those who received CRT and had electrocardiograms available at baseline and after CRT implantation were included in this analysis. ΔQRSd was calculated as the absolute difference between QRS duration at baseline and with CRT pacing. The primary outcome was the composite of death and heart failure hospitalization. ResultsThere were 813 patients included in this analysis. The median age was 67 years, and 125 patients (15.2%) were female. The median ΔQRSd was −2 ms (−20 to 18 ms), and 447 (55%) patients had a ΔQRSd ≤0 after implantation. ΔQRSd was an independent predictor of the composite outcome for patients with CRT (hazard ratio, 1.012; 95% confidence interval, 1.008–1.017). CRT recipients with ΔQRSd >0 had higher rates of the composite outcome than patients randomized to implantable cardioverter-defibrillator alone. ConclusionFor patients receiving CRT for heart failure with left ventricular systolic dysfunction and QRS prolongation, ΔQRSd was an independent predictor of long-term mortality and heart failure hospitalization.

Prognostic impact of insulin- and non-insulin treated diabetes in patients with a reduced ejection fraction after ST-elevation myocardial infarction

BackgroundInsulin- and non-insulin treated diabetes (ITDM and NITDM) have different prognostic impact in patients with myocardial infarction and/or heart failure. The aim of this study was to analyze the prognostic impact of ITDM and NTIDM on the incidence of all-cause mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE- cardiovascular death, non-fatal infarction, non-fatal stroke and target vessel revascularization) in the eight-year follow-up of patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) with a reduced ejection fraction (EF). MethodsWe analysed 2,230 consecutive STEMI patients treated with primary PCI and with EF <50%. Echocardiographic examination was performed after pPCI. Patients were divided in three groups: ITDM, NITDM and no DM. Patients presenting with cardiogenic shock were excluded. ResultsThe incidence of DM was 20.7%; among the patients with DM, 103 (22.3%) had ITDM. Patients with ITDM and NITDM had higher mortality and MACE compared with patients without DM. Also, at eight year follow-up all-cause mortality and MACE were significantly higher in patients with ITDM as compared with patients with NITDM (37.8%vs13.1% p<0.001 and 40.8%vs18.9%, p<0.001, respectively). Multivariable analysis showed ITDM to be an independent predictor for long-term mortality (HR 1.76, 95%CI 1.15-2.69) and MACE (HR 1.72, 95%CI 1.15-2.62). ConclusionITDM was an independent predictor of long-term mortality and MACE in patients with STEMI and reduced EF. NITDM was not an independent predictor for the occurrence of adverse events in analyzed patients.

Galectin-3 Predicts Long-Term Risk of Cerebral Disability and Mortality in Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Survivors.

Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is associated with high mortality and cerebral disability in survivors. Current models of risk prediction and survival are mainly based on resuscitation duration. We examined the prognostic value of circulating biomarkers in predicting mortality and severe cerebral disability for OHCA survivors, alongside traditional clinical risk indicators. Biomarkers including BNP, troponin I, and galectin-3 were measured at hospital admission in resuscitated OHCA patients. Prognostic significance for mortality and cerebral disability involving circulating biomarkers, resuscitation duration, demographics, and laboratory and clinical characteristics was examined via univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models. The incremental prognostic value of the index covariates was examined through model diagnostics, focusing on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Harrell's concordance statistic (c-statistic). In a combinatorial analysis of 144 OHCA survivors (median follow-up 5.7 years (IQR 2.9-6.6)), BNP, galectin-3, arterial pH, and resuscitation time were significant predictors of all-cause death and severe cerebral disability, whereas troponin I levels were not. Multivariate regression, adjusting for BNP, arterial pH, and resuscitation time, identified galectin-3 as an independent predictor of long-term mortality. Multiple linear regression models also confirmed galectin-3 as the strongest predictor of cerebral disability. The incorporation of galectin-3 into models for predicting mortality and cerebral disability enhanced fit and discrimination, demonstrating the incremental value of galectin-3 beyond traditional risk predictors. Galectin-3 is a significant, independent long-term risk predictor of cerebral disability and mortality in OHCA survivors. Incorporating galectin-3 into current risk stratification models may enhance early prognostication and guide targeted clinical interventions.

The Freiburg Index of Post-TIPS Survival accurately predicts mortality in patients with acute decompensation of cirrhosis.

The recently developed Freiburg Index of Post-TIPS Survival (FIPS) allows improved risk classification of patients with decompensated cirrhosis allocated to transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) implantation. This study investigated the prognostic value of the FIPS in patients hospitalized with acute decompensation of cirrhosis (AD), outside the setting of TIPS implantation. A total of 1133 patients with AD were included in a retrospective, multi-centre study. Ninety-day, 180-day and 1-year mortality were recorded and the FIPS' performance in predicting mortality at these time points was analysed using ROC analyses. Ninety-day, 180-day and 1-year mortality were 17.7%, 24.4% and 30.8%. Uni- and multivariable Cox regression models showed that the FIPS independently predicted 1-year mortality in the study cohort (HR 1.806, 95% CI 1.632-1.998, p < .0001). In ROC analyses, the FIPS offered consistently high performance in the prediction of mortality within 1 year after AD (area under the receiver operator characteristic [AUROC]: 1-year mortality .712 [.679-.746], 180-day mortality .740 [.705-.775] and 90-day mortality .761 [.721-.801]). In fact, in the subgroup of patients presenting with variceal bleeding, the FIPS even showed significantly improved discriminatory performance in the prediction of long-term mortality (AUROC 1-year mortality: .782 [.724-.839]) in comparison with established prognostic scores, such as the CLIF-C AD score (.724 [.660-.788], p = .0071) or MELD 3.0 (.726 [.662-.790], p = .0042). The FIPS accurately predicts mortality in patients with AD and seems to offer superior prognostication of long-term mortality in patients with variceal bleeding.

Impact of the Hospital Frailty Risk Score on Outcomes After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement in Late Elderly Patients.

Prognostic prediction using objective indices is needed to optimize the indications for transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). We evaluated the impact of the Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS), an International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-based frailty index, on the prognosis after TAVR in the late elderly. We identified patients aged ≥75 years undergoing TAVR from April 2014 to September 2020 from the Shizuoka Kokuho Database (SKDB). Cox logistic regression analysis was performed to examine predictors of long-term mortality. We also evaluated the relationship between HFRS categories (low risk: <5, intermediate risk: 5-15, high risk: >15) and functional decline. This study involved 607 patients (189 (31.1%) men) with a mean age of 85.0 years. During the median follow-up period of 20 months, survival significantly differed among HFRS categories (survival at two years; low (HFRS <5): 88.9%, intermediate (HFRS 5-15): 82.6%, high (HFRS >15): 67.7%; log-rank p = 0.002). In the multivariate regression model, male sex (hazard ratio (HR): 2.15, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.42-3.24), preoperative care needs level of ≥3 (HR: 2.43, 95% CI: 1.17-5.06), and HFRS (HR: 1.07, 95% CI: 1.03-1.12) were significant predictors of mortality. Functional decline-free survival significantly differed among HFRS categories (event-free survival at two years; low: 79.4%, intermediate: 75.2%, high: 50.8%; log-rank p = 0.001). The HFRS is a predictor of long-term mortality after TAVR in the late elderly and is associated with postoperative functional decline. The HFRS can provide additional information for decision-making regarding treatment strategies for the late elderly.

Outcomes of 576 patients with extracorporeal life support for the treatment of perioperative cardiogenic shock.

This study aims to analyse the short- and long-term outcomes in patients who received extracorporeal life support for the treatment of perioperative low-output syndrome and identify risk factors for mortality. All consecutive patients who received extracorporeal life-support system during or after cardiac surgery at a high-volume German cardiac centre between 2008 and 2017 were identified retrospectively and followed up to December 2023. This cohort was characterized, and long-term survival (>10 years) was analysed. Univariate and multivariable regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors for mortality. Five-hundred and seventy-six patients were included; 21.7% underwent isolated coronary bypass, 16.5% single valve surgery, 34.3% combined cardiac surgery and 13.2% heart transplantation. The system was implanted peripherally in 60.8% of patients. In-hospital and 1-year mortality for all patients was 66.0% and 77.7%, respectively. In the multivariable Cox adjustment, severe aortic valve stenosis, previous cardiac surgery and intra-aortic balloon pump were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality (P < 0.05). Older age, severe mitral regurgitation and patients on insulin were predictors for long-term mortality (P < 0.05). However, peripheral cannulation significantly reduced mortality. There was no time-dependent interaction of perioperative stroke with mortality. For patients who were discharged alive, the estimated 10-year survival was 32.4%. Treatment of perioperative low-output syndrome with extracorporeal life-support systems is associated with poor outcome and only 34% of patients could be discharged successfully. Peripheral cannulation is prognostically favourable. Special attention should be paid to these patients because age, insulin therapy and severe mitral regurgitation are strong predictors for mortality after 10 years.

Clinical profile, microbiology and outcomes in infective endocarditis treated with aortic valve replacement: a multicenter case-control study

BackgroundAortic valve infective endocarditis (IE) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. We aimed to describe the clinical profile, risk factors and predictors of short- and long-term mortality in patients with aortic valve IE treated with aortic valve replacement (AVR) compared with a control group undergoing AVR for non-infectious valvular heart disease.MethodsBetween January 2008 and December 2013, a total of 170 cases with IE treated with AVR (exposed cohort) and 677 randomly selected non-infectious AVR-treated patients with degenerative aortic valve disease (controls) were recruited from three tertiary hospitals with cardiothoracic facilities across Scandinavia. Crude and adjusted hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using Cox regression models.ResultsThe mean age of the IE cohort was 58.5 ± 15.1 years (80.0% men). During a mean follow-up of 7.8 years (IQR 5.1-10.8 years), 373 (44.0%) deaths occurred: 81 (47.6%) in the IE group and 292 (43.1%) among controls. Independent risk factors associated with IE were male gender, previous heart surgery, underweight, positive hepatitis C serology, renal failure, previous wound infection and dental treatment (all p < 0.05). IE was associated with an increased risk of both short-term (≤ 30 days) (HR 2.86, [1.36–5.98], p = 0.005) and long-term mortality (HR 2.03, [1.43–2.88], p < 0.001). In patients with IE, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR 2.13), underweight (HR 4.47), renal failure (HR 2.05), concomitant mitral valve involvement (HR 2.37) and mediastinitis (HR 3.98) were independent predictors of long-term mortality. Staphylococcus aureus was the most prevalent microbe (21.8%) and associated with a 5.2-fold increased risk of early mortality, while enterococci were associated with the risk of long-term mortality (HR 1.78).ConclusionsIn this multicenter case-control study, IE was associated with an increased risk of both short- and long-term mortality compared to controls. Efforts should be made to identify, and timely treat modifiable risk factors associated with contracting IE, and mitigate the predictors of poor survival in IE.

Surgery versus surveillance for ascending aortic aneurysms in elderly patients

BackgroundWhether elderly patients with aortic root or ascending aortic aneurysm (ATAA) would benefit from the new surgical size threshold of 5.0 cm is unknown. This study aimed to evaluate the natural history of ATAA in elderly patients and to compare long-term outcomes of those who underwent initial surveillance versus surgery. MethodsPatients age ≥75 years with an ATAA ≥40 mm were categorized into 2 groups: initial surgery and initial surveillance. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality; Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted for survival. A multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to identify independent predictors of long-term mortality. ResultsThe study series comprised 300 patients, including 58 who underwent initial surgery and 242 who received surveillance between July 2010 and September 2022. In the surveillance cohort, the mean aneurysm growth rate was 0.10 cm/year. Comparing surveillance to surgery, at 8 years there was no difference in survival (mean, 77.8 ± 3.4% vs 71.8 ± 9.6%; P = .65). For 116 patients with an initial aneurysm diameter ≥5.0 cm, there was no difference in survival between the 2 groups at 8 years (76.5 ± 7.0% vs 68.4 ± 11.3%; P = .20). Larger body surface area (hazard ratio [HR], 1.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09-1.90; P = .01) and history of smoking (HR, 2.25; 95% CI, 1.27-3.98; P = .01) were identified as predictors of long-term mortality. ConclusionsIn our series of elderly patients with ATAA, there was no difference in 8-year survival between initial surveillance and surgical management, with a high competing risk of nonaortic mortality. Surveillance may be a reasonable alternative to surgery for selected older adults with ATAA <5.5 cm.