Predictor Of Radiographic Progression Research Articles

Radiographic Progression in Sacroiliac Joints in Patients With Axial Spondyloarthritis: Results From a Five-Year International Observational Study.

To evaluate progression from nonradiographic (nr-) to radiographic axial spondyloarthritis (r-axSpA) over 5 years in patients with recently diagnosed (≤1 year) axSpA fulfilling the Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society (ASAS) classification criteria. A prospsective, observational study (Patients with Axial Spondyloarthritis: Multi-Country Registry of Clinical Characteristics) was conducted in rheumatology practices in 29 countries. Baseline and follow-up radiographs of sacroiliac joints were centrally evaluated by three readers according to the grading system of the modified New York criteria for patients initially classified as nr-axSpA. Radiographic progression from nr-axSpA to r-axSpA was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. Cox proportional regression analyses for progression from nr-axSpA to r-axSpA were also conducted. Among 2,165 patients with axSpA, 1,612 (74%) were classified as having r-axSpA (1,050 [65%]) or nr-axSpA (562 [35%]) by central reading. Of 246 patients with nr-axSpA (mean [SD] symptom duration: 4.4 [6.2] years) who had at least one follow-up sacroiliac joint radiograph, progression from nr-axSpA to r-axSpA at any follow-up visit was observed in 40 patients (16%) over 5 years. Mean time to radiographic progression was 2.4 years (ranging from 0.9 to 5.1 years). Progression to r-axSpA was associated with male sex (hazard ratio [HR] 3.16 [95% CI 1.22-8.17]), fulfillment of the imaging arm of the ASAS classification criteria (HR 6.64 [1.37-32.25]), and good response to nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (HR 4.66 [1.23-17.71]). 16% of patients with nr-axSpA progressed to r-axSpA within 5 years. Male sex, fulfillment of the imaging arm of the ASAS criteria, and good response to nonsteroidal anti-inflammatorydrugs were predictors of radiographic progression in patients with recently diagnosed axSpA.

OP0149 RADIOGRAPHIC PROGRESSION FROM NON-RADIOGRAPHIC TO RADIOGRAPHIC AXIAL SPONDYLOARTHRITIS: RESULTS FROM A 5-YEAR MULTICOUNTRY PROSPECTIVE OBSERVATIONAL STUDY

BackgroundPatients (pts) with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) are classified into radiographic axSpA (r-axSpA) and non-radiographic axSpA (nr-axSpA) based on the presence or absence of radiographic sacroiliitis. Approximately 20% to 80% of newly diagnosed axSpA pts have nr-axSpA and 8% to 40% progress to r-axSpA over the next 2 to 10 years.ObjectivesTo evaluate progression from nr-axSpA to r-axSpA over 5 years in a prospective multicentre cohort.MethodsPROOF was a global, real-world, prospective, observational study conducted in rheumatology clinical practices in 29 countries across 6 different geographic regions.1 The study enrolled adults with chronic back pain for ≥3 months and onset before 45 years of age. This analysis included pts diagnosed with axSpA who also fulfilled the Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society (ASAS) classification criteria for axSpA. Study visits occurred at baseline (BL) and yearly thereafter. Baseline and follow-up radiographs of sacroiliac joints (SIJ) were evaluated for pts with initial nr-axSpA diagnosis independently by 2 central readers according to the modified New York criteria. In the case of disagreement on the classification (nr- or r-axSpA), images were adjudicated by a third reader. Radiographic progression from nr-axSpA to r-axSpA over 5 years was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses for time to radiographic progression from nr-axSpA to r-axSpA were conducted. For model 1, ‘imaging arm vs clinical arm’ was used as an independent variable, and for model 2, ‘active inflammation on magnetic resonance imaging highly suggestive of sacroiliitis associated with SpA’ was used. Further, potential predictive factors included in the models were age, gender, back pain duration, number of SpA parameters, smoking status, CRP, good response to NSAIDs, HLA-B27 status, and current use of NSAIDs and TNF inhibitors.ResultsAmong 2633 enrolled pts, 2165 (82%) were diagnosed with axSpA and fulfilled the ASAS classification criteria. Among these, 1612 (74%) were classified as having r-axSpA (1050 [65%]) or nr-axSpA (562 [35%]) by central reading. The majority of nr-axSpA pts (77%) fulfilled the ASAS classification criteria due to positive findings on imaging (plus ≥1 SpA feature) and 23% were classified according to the clinical arm. A total of 246 nr-axSpA pts who had ≥1 follow-up SIJ radiograph were included in this analysis. Among these 246 pts, progression from initial nr-axSpA to r-axSpA at any of the follow-up visits was observed in 40 pts (16%) over 5 years. Mean time to radiographic progression was 2.4 years (ranging from 0.9 to 5.1 years) in descriptive analysis (Kaplan-Meier curve shown in Figure 1). In model 1 of the Cox regression analysis, male gender (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.16 [95% CI: 1.22–8.17]; P=0.0174), fulfilment of the imaging arm (HR: 6.64 [1.37–32.25]; P=0.0188), and good response to NSAIDs, (HR: 4.66 [1.23–17.71]; P=0.0237), were significantly associated with progression to r-axSpA (Figure 1). In model 2, HLA-B27 positivity showed a significant association with progression (HR: 3.99 [1.10–14.49]; P=0.0353; Figure 1).ConclusionIn this study, 16% of nr-axSpA pts progressed to r-axSpA within 5 years. The mean time to disease progression was 2.4 years. Predictors of radiographic progression were male gender, good response to NSAIDs, and fulfilment of the imaging arm as well as HLA-B27 positivity.

Association of Polygenic Risk Scores With Radiographic Progression in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis.

To investigate whether polygenic risk scores obtained using data from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) susceptibility can be predictors of radiographic progression. We constructed polygenic risk scores using GWAS summary data on associations of single-nucleotide polymorphisms with RA susceptibility. The polygenic risk scores were stratified into quintiles based on levels of significance (ranging from top quintile of polygenic risk scores to bottom quintile). In addition, change in the Sharp/van der Heijde score (SHS) of radiographic progression over the first 5 years after onset of RA was assessed. The change in SHS over 5 years was stratified according to quartiles, with the top quartile of change in SHS defined as severe radiographic progression (score change of >35 points) and the remaining 3 quartiles defined as nonsevere radiographic progression. Polygenic risk scores were assessed for their ability to predict the SHS status over 5 years in a training set (n = 500 RA patients) for selection of the best model, and in a testing set (n = 740 RA patients) for validation of the data. We evaluated the performance of the polygenic risk score as a predictor of severe radiographic progression in univariable and multivariable analyses with inclusion of other factors. Polygenic risk scores constructed from 43,784 single-nucleotide polymorphisms significantly differed between patients who experienced severe radiographic progression and those with nonsevere radiographic progression in both the training set (P = 0.0064) and the testing set (P = 0.017). Patients with polygenic risk scores in the top quintile had a higher risk of severe progression compared to those with polygenic risk scores in the bottom quintile (odds ratio [OR] 1.90, P = 0.0022), and the risk of severe radiographic progression was even higher when restricted to patients who were younger at disease onset (OR 5.06, P = 0.00038). The group with polygenic risk scores in the top quintile and the anti-citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA)-positive group had significantly higher proportions of patients with severe radiographic progression (P = 0.00052 and P = 0.0022, respectively) compared to the remaining groups. Multivariable analysis showed that polygenic risk score (P = 0.00019) as well as female sex (P = 0.0033), ACPA positivity (P = 0.0023), and body mass index (P = 0.024) were independent risk factors for severe radiographic progression. A polygenic risk score that is derived from GWAS data on RA susceptibility is associated with the level of severity of radiographic progression in patients with RA.

Spinal Radiographic Progression and Predictors of Progression in Patients With Radiographic Axial Spondyloarthritis Receiving Ixekizumab Over 2 Years.

To evaluate the long-term effect of ixekizumab (IXE) on radiographic changes in the spine in patients with radiographic axial spondyloarthritis (r-axSpA) by measuring change from baseline through 2 years in modified Stoke Ankylosing Spondylitis Spinal Score (mSASSS), and to identify potential predictors of progression. This study evaluates patients from COAST-V (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02696785, biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drug-naïve) and COAST-W (NCT02696798, tumor necrosis factor inhibitor-experienced) who had mSASSS data at baseline in the originating studies and 108 weeks after baseline in the extension study COAST-Y (NCT03129100). We examined the proportion of patients who did not have spinal radiographic progression through 2 years (108 weeks) of treatment with IXE (80 mg every 2 or 4 weeks) and the change from baseline to year 2 in mSASSS. Potential predictors of spinal radiographic progression were also evaluated. Among patients with evaluable radiographs who were originally assigned to IXE (n = 230), mean (SD) change in mSASSS from baseline at year 2 was 0.3 (1.8). The proportion of nonprogressors over 2 years was 89.6% if defined as mSASSS change from baseline < 2 and 75.7% if defined as mSASSS change from baseline ≤ 0. Predictors of structural progression at year 2 (mSASSS change > 0) were age ≥ 40, baseline syndesmophytes, HLA-B27 positivity, and male sex. Week 52 inflammation in Spondyloarthritis Research Consortium of Canada spine was also a predictor of radiographic progression at year 2 in patients with magnetic resonance imaging data in COAST-V (n = 109). The majority of patients with r-axSpA receiving IXE had no radiographic progression in the spine through 2 years of treatment. Predictors were generally consistent with previous studies.

Autoantibodies against Protein Phosphatase Magnesium-Dependent 1A as a Biomarker for Predicting Radiographic Progression in Ankylosing Spondylitis Treated with Anti-Tumor Necrosis Factor Agents.

Background: Patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) have increased levels of protein phosphatase magnesium-dependent 1A (PPM1A) and autoantibodies. We evaluated the usefulness of serum anti-PPM1A antibodies as a biomarker for AS. Methods: Serum samples from 58 AS patients were obtained from a multicenter registry prior to the initiation of anti-TNF agents. The serum levels of anti-PPM1A antibodies were measured using ELISA. Spinal radiographic progression was defined as an increase in the modified stoke ankylosing spondylitis spinal score (mSASSS) by ≥2 units or a newly developed syndesmophyte. The role of exogenous PPM1A on bone mineralization was evaluated using primary osteoprogenitors acquired from patients with AS and non-inflammatory controls. Results: The baseline levels of anti-PPM1A antibodies and mSASSS were higher in the radiographic progression group than in the non-progression group. In logistic regression analysis, baseline mSASSS and serum anti-PPM1A antibodies were associated with a higher risk of progression. The level of anti-PPM1A antibodies for predicting progression had an AUC of 0.716 (cut-off value: 43.77 ng/mL). PPM1A stimulation increased matrix mineralization in AS-osteoprogenitors but not in controls. Conclusion: Along with mSASSS, the serum levels of anti-PPM1A antibodies might be useful as a predictor of radiographic progression after treatment with anti-TNF agents.

The combination of an inflammatory peripheral blood gene expression and imaging biomarkers enhance prediction of radiographic progression in knee osteoarthritis

ObjectivePredictive biomarkers of progression in knee osteoarthritis are sought to enable clinical trials of structure-modifying drugs. A peripheral blood leukocyte (PBL) inflammatory gene signature, MRI-based bone marrow lesions (BML) and meniscus extrusion scores, meniscal lesions, and osteophytes on X-ray each have been shown separately to predict radiographic joint space narrowing (JSN) in subjects with symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (SKOA). In these studies, we determined whether the combination of the PBL inflammatory gene expression and these imaging findings at baseline enhanced the prognostic value of either alone.MethodsPBL inflammatory gene expression (increased mRNA for IL-1β, TNFα, and COX-2), routine radiographs, and 3T knee MRI were assessed in two independent populations with SKOA: an NYU cohort and the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI). At baseline and 24 months, subjects underwent standardized fixed-flexion knee radiographs and knee MRI. Medial JSN (mJSN) was determined as the change in medial JSW. Progressors were defined by an mJSN cut-point (≥ 0.5 mm/24 months). Models were evaluated by odds ratios (OR) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).ResultsWe validated our prior finding in these two independent (NYU and OAI) cohorts, individually and combined, that an inflammatory PBL inflammatory gene expression predicted radiographic progression of SKOA after adjustment for age, sex, and BMI. Similarly, the presence of baseline BML and meniscal lesions by MRI or semiquantitative osteophyte score on X-ray each predicted radiographic medial JSN at 24 months. The combination of the PBL inflammatory gene expression and medial BML increased the AUC from 0.66 (p = 0.004) to 0.75 (p < 0.0001) and the odds ratio from 6.31 to 19.10 (p < 0.0001) in the combined cohort of 473 subjects. The addition of osteophyte score to BML and PBL inflammatory gene expression further increased the predictive value of any single biomarker. A causal analysis demonstrated that the PBL inflammatory gene expression and BML independently influenced mJSN.ConclusionThe use of the PBL inflammatory gene expression together with imaging biomarkers as combinatorial predictive biomarkers, markedly enhances the identification of radiographic progressors. The identification of the SKOA population at risk for progression will help in the future design of disease-modifying OA drug trials and personalized medicine strategies.

Radiographic progression based on baseline characteristics from TNF inhibitor biosimilar studies in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

ObjectivePhase III clinical trials of the tumour necrosis factor inhibitors SB4, SB2, and SB5 (biosimilars to etanercept, infliximab, and adalimumab, respectively) have demonstrated efficacy in moderate-to-severe rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Data from these trials were used to identify baseline characteristics associated with radiographic progression and to build a matrix risk model for its prediction.MethodsPatients with radiographic progression and baseline demographic and disease characteristic data were pooled across the 3 phase III studies of each biosimilar and its reference product. Baseline demographics and disease characteristics were evaluated for their relationship with radiographic progression (1-year mean change in mTSS > 0); 3 factors were selected based on strongest Pearson’s correlation coefficient with the change in modified Total Sharp Score. Univariate logistic regression was performed to assess the association between each baseline factor and the rate of radiographic progression, with subsequent matrix model development performed using multivariate logistic regression.ResultsA total of 1371 patients were included in the analysis, with a radiographic progression rate of 27.4%. The 3 baseline predictors of radiographic progression, based on Pearson’s correlation coefficient, were 28 swollen joint count (SJC28), C-reactive protein (CRP), and physician global assessment (PhGA). A matrix model showed that the predicted risk of radiographic progression was higher with the increased level of SJC28, CRP, and PhGA (P < 0.001).ConclusionsIn this pooled analysis of phase III clinical trial data of biosimilars for RA, identifiable baseline factors (SJC28, CRP, and PhGA) associated with radiographic progression were similar to those described in prior studies. Even though radiographic progression was minimal, a small number of patients who have increased SJC28, CRP, and PhGA at baseline should be closely monitored and follow treat-to-target approach.Clinical trial registration numbersEudraCT 2012-005026-30. Registered 30 April 2013, https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu/ctr-search/trial/2012-005026-30/resultsEudraCT 2012-005733-37. Registered 10 July 2013, https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu/ctr-search/trial/2012-005733-37/resultsEudraCT 2013-005013-13. Registered 01 April 2014, https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu/ctr-search/trial/2013-005013-13/results

Predictors of radiographic progression for NTM-pulmonary disease diagnosed by bronchoscopy.

A single isolate of nontuberculous mycobacterium (NTM) from bronchoscopic samples satisfies the microbiological criterion for diagnosing NTM-pulmonary disease (PD). Studies investigating patients with NTM-PD and multiple culture-negative sputum samples but culture-positive bronchoscopic samples are lacking. We investigated the clinical characteristics, outcome, and predictors of radiographic progression in this special population. Patients with negative NTM culture from ≥2 expectorated sputum samples within the 3 months prior to bronchoscopy diagnosis of NTM-PD between 2009 and 2017 were included. Patient characteristics and clinical course were described. Predictors for radiographic progression of NTM-PD within 2 years were analysed by using multivariate logistic regression. Among 66 patients with bronchoscopy-diagnosed NTM-PD, radiographic progression occurred within 2 years in 17 (26%). Of the 60 patients not initially treated, radiographic progression occurred in 17 (28%). Among them, 10 never received treatment, with 6 deteriorating and 3 dying. Of the 6 and 7 patients who received treatment immediately after NTM-PD diagnosis and after radiographic progression, respectively, none had further radiographic progression. The independent predictors of radiographic progression were male sex, body mass index <18.5kg/m2, use of inhaled corticosteroids, and acid-fast smear grade ≥2 of index bronchoscopic samples. Among patients with bronchoscopy-diagnosed NTM-PD, one fourth experienced radiographic progression within 2 years. The risk was even higher in those with the aforementioned predictors, immediate treatment or close monitoring is recommended. For others, conservative management by regular microbiological monitoring for sputum samples and image follow-up may be the optimal choice.

Machine learning-based prediction of radiographic progression in patients with axial spondyloarthritis.

Machine learning is applied to characterize the risk and predict outcomes in multi-dimensional data. The prediction of radiographic progression in axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) remains limited. Hence, we tested the feasibility of supervised machine learning algorithms to predict radiographic progression in axSpA. This is a retrospective and hospital-based study. Clinical and laboratory data obtained from two independent axSpA groups were used as training and testing datasets. Radiographic progression over 2 years was assessed using the modified Stoke Ankylosing Spondylitis Spine Score (mSASSS) and mSASSS worsening by ≥ two units was defined as progression. Seven machine learning models with different algorithms were fitted, and their performance for the testing dataset was assessed using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) and precision-recall (PR) curve. The training and testing groups had equivalent characteristics, and radiographic progression was identified in 25.3% and 23.7%, respectively. The generalized linear model (GLM) and support vector machine (SVM) were the top two best-performing models with an average area-under-curve (AUC) of ROC of over 0.78. SVM had the higher AUC of PR compared with GLM (0.56 versus 0.51). Balanced accuracy was over 65% in all models. mSASSS was the most informative variable, followed by the presence of syndesmophyte(s) at the baseline and sacroiliac joint grades. Clinical and radiographic data-driven predictive models showed reasonable performance in the prediction of radiographic progression in axSpA. Further modelling with larger and more detailed data could provide an excellent opportunity for the clinical translation of the predictive models to the management of high-risk patients.Key Points• Clinical and radiographic data-driven predictive models showed reasonable performance in the prediction of radiographic progression in axSpA.• Further modelling with larger and more detailed data could provide an excellent opportunity for the clinical translation of the predictive models to the management of high-risk patients.

Very early MRI responses to therapy as a predictor of later radiographic progression in early rheumatoid arthritis

BackgroundThe objective of this study was to evaluate early changes in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and clinical disease activity measures as predictors of later structural progression in early rheumatoid arthritis (RA).MethodsThis was a post hoc analysis of data pooled across treatments from a three-arm (tofacitinib monotherapy, tofacitinib with methotrexate [MTX], or MTX monotherapy) trial of MTX-naïve patients with early, active RA. Synovitis, osteitis and erosions were assessed with the Outcome Measures in Rheumatology (OMERACT) RA MRI scoring system (RAMRIS) and RAMRIQ (automated quantitative RA MRI assessment system; automated RAMRIS) at months 0, 1, 3, 6 and 12. Radiographs were assessed at months 0, 6 and 12, and clinical endpoints were assessed at all timepoints. Univariate and multivariate analyses explored the predictive value of early changes in RAMRIS/RAMRIQ parameters and disease activity measures, with respect to subsequent radiographic progression.ResultsData from 109 patients with a mean RA duration of 0.7 years were included. In univariate analyses, changes in RAMRIS erosions at months 1 and 3 significantly predicted radiographic progression at month 12 (both p < 0.01); changes in RAMRIQ synovitis and osteitis at months 1 and 3 were significant predictors of RAMRIS erosions and radiographic progression at month 12 (all p < 0.01). In subsequent multivariate analyses, RAMRIS erosion change at month 1 (p < 0.05) and RAMRIQ osteitis changes at months 1 and 3 (both p < 0.01) were significant independent predictors of radiographic progression at month 12. Univariate analyses demonstrated that changes in Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI) and Disease Activity Score in 28 joints, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (DAS28-4[ESR]) at months 1 and 3 were not predictive of month 12 radiographic progression.ConclusionsMRI changes seen as early as 1 month after RA treatment initiation have the potential to better predict long-term radiographic progression than changes in disease activity measures.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01164579.

Clinical predictors of radiographic progression of a hepatic lesion from Li-RADS 3 to Li-RADS 5 among a population of individuals at high risk of hepatocellular carcinoma.

e15668 Background: We sought to identify clinical predictors of radiographic progression of a Li-RADS (LR) 3 lesion (i.e. indeterminate for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)) to a LR 5 lesion (i.e. definitely HCC) among patients (pts) at high risk of HCC. Methods: Radiology reports from the University of Washington with an LR assignment, 2013-2017, were reviewed (5037 reports, 1954 patients(pts)). Pts with an LR 3 lesion, a follow-up scan within 1 year of date of LR 3 lesion detection, and radiographic evidence of cirrhosis OR a diagnosis of chronic HBV were included in the analysis. Results: Of the 167 pts, 38 (23%) progressed to LR 5 status, 10 progressed to LR 4, and 12 were downgraded to LR 1-2. The remaining 64% were unchanged at LR 3. Radiographic data including year of LR 3 detection (2013-2014 47%) and LR 3 imaging modality (CT 50.3%, MR 49.7%) were obtained. Clinical data were abstracted from medical record review, including sex (65% male), age (80% &lt; 65), race (66% White), cirrhosis etiology (45% HCV, 27% EtOH, 22% NASH, 8% HBV), HCV genotype, HCV treatment status, AFP, and ALBI score (G2 54%, G3 16%, unk 15%). Variables of interest (age, sex, race, cirrhosis etiology, AFP, ALBI score, year of LR 3 detection, imaging modality) were included in proportional hazards modeling with the underlying time metric defined as time from LR 3 detection to date of LR 5 detection or date of last scan up to one year after LR 3 identification. Backwards elimination modeling was performed until remaining variables were associated with the outcome at a level of significance of p &lt; 0.05 (Table 1). Among those with chronic HCV, risk of progression to LR 5 did not differ by HCV genotype (1a, 1b, 2, 3, other, unknown) or sustained viral response status at the time of LR 3 detection. Table 1: Multivariate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) estimates. Conclusions: Chronic HCV, older age at LR 3 detection, earlier year of LR 3 detection, and male sex appear independently associated with risk of progression to LR 5. The identification of clinical factors associated with LR 3 progression may allow for the development of risk modeling tools to assist clinicians in determining frequency of follow-up imaging and optimal timing of intervention.[Table: see text]

Predicting risk for radiographic damage in rheumatoid arthritis: comparative analysis of the multi-biomarker disease activity score and conventional measures of disease activity in multiple studies

Objective: To compare the multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) score with the DAS28-CRP and CRP for predicting risk of radiographic progression in patients with rheumatoid arthritis.Methods: Published studies of the MBDA score and radiographic progression with ≥100 patients per cohort were evaluated. Rates of radiographic progression over 1 year were determined across the low/moderate/high categories for MBDA score (low/moderate/high: <30, 30–44, >44), DAS28-CRP (low/moderate/high: ≤2.67, >2.67–4.09, >4.09) and CRP (low/moderate/high: ≤10, >10–30, >30 mg/L), with positive and negative predictive value (PPV, NPV) and relative risk (RR) determined for high vs. not-high (i.e. low and moderate combined) categories. Patient-level data from studies having all three measures was pooled to: (1) determine a combined RR for radiographic progression in the high vs. not-high categories for each measure; and (2) compare the predictive ability of MBDA score vs. DAS28-CRP by comparing the rates of radiographic progression observed in subgroups created by cross-classifying the high and not-high categories of each measure.Results: Five cohorts were identified for inclusion (total N=929). In each, radiographic progression was more frequent with increasing MBDA scores. Among the three cohorts with requisite data, PPVs were generally similar using categories of MBDA score, DAS28-CRP or CRP but NPVs were greater for MBDA score (93–97%) than DAS28-CRP or CRP (77–87%). RRs for radiographic progression were greater when based on categories of MBDA score than DAS28-CRP or CRP and the combined RR was greater for MBDA score (4.6, p < .0001) than DAS28-CRP (1.7, p = .02) or CRP (1.7, p = .002). For patients cross-classified by MBDA score and DAS28-CRP, high vs. not-high MBDA score significantly predicted radiographic progression independently of DAS28-CRP.Conclusions: High and not-high MBDA scores were associated with increased and low risk, respectively, for radiographic progression over one year. MBDA score was a better predictor of radiographic progression than DAS28-CRP or CRP.

Quantifying bone marrow inflammatory edema in the spine and sacroiliac joints with thresholding

BackgroundPsoriatic Arthritis (PsA) is a chronic inflammatory arthritis that develops in patients with psoriasis. Inflammatory edema in the spine may reflect subclinical disease activity and be a predictor of radiographic progression. A semi-quantitative method established by the spondyloarthritis research consortium of Canada (SPARCC) is commonly used to assess the disease activity in MR images of the spine. This study aims to evaluate thresholding for quantification of subtle bone marrow inflammation in the spine and the sacroiliac (SI) joints of patients with PsA and compare it with the SPARCC scoring system.MethodsShort tau inversion recovery (STIR) MR images of the spine (N = 85) and the SI joints (N = 95) of patients with PsA (N = 41) were analyzed. A threshold was applied to visible bone marrow in order to mask areas with higher signal intensity, which are consistent with inflammation. These areas were considered as inflammatory lesions. The volume and relative signal intensity of the lesions were calculated. Results from thresholding were compared to SPARCC scores using linear mixed-effects models. The specificity and sensitivity of thresholding were also calculated.ResultsA significant positive correlation between the volumes and mean relative signal intensities, which were calculated by thresholding analysis, and the SPARCC scores was detected for both spine (p < 0.001) and SI joints (p < 0.001). For the spine, thresholding had sensitivity and specificity of 83% and 76% respectively, while for the SI joints the values were 51% and 88% respectively.ConclusionsThresholding allows quantification of subtle bone marrow inflammatory edema in patients with psoriatic arthritis, and could support SPARCC scoring of the spine. Improved image processing and inclusion of automatic segmentation are required for thresholding of STIR images to become a rapid and reliable method for quantitative measures of inflammation.Trial registrationNCT02995460 (December 14, 2016) – Retrospectively registered.

Biological function integrated prediction of severe radiographic progression in rheumatoid arthritis: a nested case control study

BackgroundRadiographic progression is reported to be highly heritable in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, previous study using genetic loci showed an insufficient accuracy of prediction for radiographic progression. The aim of this study is to identify a biologically relevant prediction model of radiographic progression in patients with RA using a genome-wide association study (GWAS) combined with bioinformatics analysis.MethodsWe obtained genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data for 374 Korean patients with RA using Illumina HumanOmni2.5Exome-8 arrays. Radiographic progression was measured using the yearly Sharp/van der Heijde modified score rate, and categorized in no or severe progression. Significant SNPs for severe radiographic progression from GWAS were mapped on the functional genes and reprioritized by post-GWAS analysis. For robust prediction of radiographic progression, tenfold cross-validation using a support vector machine (SVM) classifier was conducted. Accuracy was used for selection of optimal SNPs set in the Hanyang Bae RA cohort. The performance of our final model was compared with that of other models based on GWAS results and SPOT (one of the post-GWAS analyses) using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The reliability of our model was confirmed using GWAS data of Caucasian patients with RA.ResultsA total of 36,091 significant SNPs with a p value <0.05 from GWAS were reprioritized using post-GWAS analysis and approximately 2700 were identified as SNPs related to RA biological features. The best average accuracy of ten groups was 0.6015 with 85 SNPs, and this increased to 0.7481 when combined with clinical information. In comparisons of the performance of the model, the 0.7872 area under the curve (AUC) in our model was superior to that obtained with GWAS (AUC 0.6586, p value 8.97 × 10-5) or SPOT (AUC 0.7449, p value 0.0423). Our model strategy also showed superior prediction accuracy in Caucasian patients with RA compared with GWAS (p value 0.0049) and SPOT (p value 0.0151).ConclusionsUsing various biological functions of SNPs and repeated machine learning, our model could predict severe radiographic progression relevantly and robustly in patients with RA compared with models using only GWAS results or other post-GWAS tools.

Baseline MRI bone erosion predicts the subsequent radiographic progression in early rheumatoid arthritis patients who achieved sustained good clinical response

Objective: To examine whether magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings at baseline predict radiographic progression in early-stage rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients who have achieved sustained good clinical response.Methods: This is a sub-analysis from the one-year observational study of Nagasaki University Early Arthritis Cohort. Definition of ‘good clinical response’ was a decrement of disease activity score (DAS) 28 ≧ 1.2 at three months with achievement of DAS28 remission through 6–12 months. Gd-enhanced MRI of both wrists and finger joints were examined at baseline and scored using rheumatoid arthritis magnetic resonance imaging score (RAMRIS). Annual increment of Genant-modified Sharp score (GSS) > 0 was defined as ‘radiographic progression’. Predictors of radiographic progression were determined by logistic regression analysis.Results: Twenty-four subjects were selected in the present study. Each median RAMRIS synovitis, bone edema, bone erosion, and GSS at baseline were 6.5, 0.5, 0, and 0, respectively. Five patients developed radiographic progression at one year. Multivariate logistic regression analysis has shown that RAMRIS bone erosion at baseline is the only independent predictor of radiographic progression at one year (p = .032).Conclusions: Our data suggest that MRI bone erosion predicts poor radiographic outcome of early-stage RA even if it has been successfully treated.

Urinary interleukin-6 as a predictor of radiographic progression in rheumatoid arthritis: A 3-year evaluation.

Previously, we demonstrated that the urine proteome signature of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) reflects inflammation-related cellular processes. Here, we measured interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, and chemokine ligand 2 (CCL2) concentrations in the urine of RA patients and prospectively investigated their role in predicting RA activity and prognosis. One hundred seventy-three RA patients and 62 non-RA controls were recruited. Urinary IL-6, CCL2, and IL-8 levels were elevated in RA patients and correlated well with disease activity. Urinary IL-6 level at presentation was an independent risk factor of radiographic progression at 1 and 3 years. High urinary IL-6 level increased the risk ratio of radiographic progression by 2.9-fold, which was comparable to high serum CRP. Moreover, combination of urinary IL-6 and serum CRP measures synergistically increased the predictability of radiographic progression. In a subgroup with normal ESR, patients with the highest tertile of urinary IL-6 were at 6.4-fold greater risk of radiographic progression. Conclusively, high urinary IL-6 level at presentation is an independent risk factor for radiographic progression of RA, reflecting disease activity. Urinary IL-6 in combination with serum CRP may be a useful parameter for estimating RA prognosis.

Erratum to: Self-reported flares are predictors of radiographic progression in rheumatoid arthritis patients in 28-joint disease activity score remission: a 24-month observational study

Background Disease flares are common in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and are related to structural damage. However, few data on the impact of flares reported by patients on radiographic progression are available. Our aim was to investigate whether overall flares (OF), self-reported flares (SRF) and short flares assessed at the visit (SF) predict radiographic progression in RA patients in DAS28 (28-joint disease activity score) remission.

Association of a multibiomarker disease activity score at multiple time-points with radiographic progression in rheumatoid arthritis: results from the SWEFOT trial

ObjectivesIn rheumatoid arthritis (RA), predictive biomarkers for subsequent radiographic progression (RP) could improve therapeutic choices for individual patients. We previously showed that the multibiomarker disease activity (MBDA) score in patients...

Prediction of radiographic progression in synovitis-positive joints on maximum intensity projection of magnetic resonance imaging in rheumatoid arthritis.

Contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging with maximum intensity projection (MRI-MIP) is an easy, useful imaging method to evaluate synovitis in rheumatoid hands. However, the prognosis of synovitis-positive joints on MRI-MIP has not been clarified. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between synovitis visualized by MRI-MIP and joint destruction on X-rays in rheumatoid hands. The wrists, metacarpophalangeal (MP) joints, and proximal interphalangeal (PIP) joints of both hands (500 joints in total) were evaluated in 25 rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients. Synovitis was scored from grade 0 to 2 on the MRI-MIP images. The Sharp/van der Heijde score and Larsen grade were used for radiographic evaluation. The relationships between the MIP score and the progression of radiographic scores and between the MIP score and bone marrow edema on MRI were analyzed using the trend test. As the MIP score increased, the Sharp/van der Heijde score and Larsen grade progressed severely. The rate of bone marrow edema-positive joints also increased with higher MIP scores. MRI-MIP imaging of RA hands is a clinically useful method that allows semi-quantitative evaluation of synovitis with ease and can be used to predict joint destruction.

Relationship of multi-biomarker disease activity score and other risk factors with radiographic progression in an observational study of patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

Objectives. To evaluate the multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) score as a predictor of radiographic progression and compare it with other risk factors among patients with established RA receiving non-biologic DMARDs.Methods. For 163 patients with RA, we assessed 271 visits for MBDA score (scale of 1−100), clinical data and subsequent 1-year radiographic progression (change in Sharp−van der Heijde score [SHS]). Scatter plot and non-parametric quantile regression curves evaluated the relationship between the MBDA score and change in SHS. Changes in joint space narrowing and erosions were compared among MBDA categories with Wilcoxon rank-sum tests. The ability of the MBDA score to independently predict progression was determined by multivariate models and cross-classification of MBDA score with other risk factors. Generalized estimating equation methodology was used in model estimations to adjust for same-patient visits, always ≥1 year apart.Results. Patient characteristics included 67% female, 66%/67% RF+/anti-CCP+; mean age 55 years, MBDA score 43 (moderate = 30−44); median disease duration 4.6 years, SHS 23. Radiographic progression was infrequent for low MBDA scores. Relative risk for progression increased continuously as the MBDA score increased, reaching 17.4 for change in SHS >5 with MBDA scores ≥60. Joint space narrowing and erosion progression were associated with MBDA score. MBDA score was associated with radiographic progression after adjustments for other risk factors. MBDA score significantly differentiated risk for progression when swollen joint count, CRP or DAS28–CRP was low, and among seropositive patients.Conclusion. MBDA score enhanced the ability of conventional risk factors to predict radiographic progression in patients with established RA receiving non-biologic DMARDs.