Predictor Of Long-term All-cause Mortality Research Articles

Metabolomics-Based Machine Learning for Predicting Mortality: Unveiling Multisystem Impacts on Health.

Reliable predictors of long-term all-cause mortality are needed for middle-aged and older populations. Previous metabolomics mortality studies have limitations: a low number of participants and metabolites measured, measurements mainly using nuclear magnetic spectroscopy, and the use only of conventional statistical methods. To overcome these challenges, we applied liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry and measured >1000 metabolites in the METSIM study including 10,197 men. We applied the machine learning approach together with conventional statistical methods to identify metabolites associated with all-cause mortality. The three independent machine learning methods (logistic regression, XGBoost, and Welch's t-test) identified 32 metabolites having the most impactful associations with all-cause mortality (25 increasing and 7 decreasing the risk). From these metabolites, 20 were novel and encompassed various metabolic pathways, impacting the cardiovascular, renal, respiratory, endocrine, and central nervous systems. In the Cox regression analyses (hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals), clinical and laboratory risk factors increased the risk of all-cause mortality by 1.76 (1.60-1.94), the 25 metabolites by 1.89 (1.68-2.12), and clinical and laboratory risk factors combined with the 25 metabolites by 2.00 (1.81-2.22). In our study, the main causes of death were cancers (28%) and cardiovascular diseases (25%). We did not identify any metabolites associated with cancer but found 13 metabolites associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular diseases. Our study reports several novel metabolites associated with an increased risk of mortality and shows that these 25 metabolites improved the prediction of all-cause mortality beyond and above clinical and laboratory measurements.

The prognostic value of metabolic dysfunction associated steatotic liver disease in acute myocardial infarction

Abstract Background Patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) are at increased risk of incident cardiovascular disease. However, the clinical characteristics and prognostic importance of MASLD in patients presenting with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have yet to be examined. Methods This study compared the characteristics, and outcomes of patients with and without MASLD presenting with AMI at a tertiary centre in Singapore. MASLD was defined as hepatic steatosis, with at least one of five metabolic criteria. Hepatic steatosis was determined using the Hepatic Steatosis Index. Propensity score matching was performed to adjust for age and sex. Kaplan-Meier curve was constructed for long-term all-cause mortality. Cox regression analysis was used to investigate independent predictors of long-term all-cause mortality. Results In this study of 4446 patients with AMI, 2223 patients with MASLD were matched with patients without MASLD using propensity scores. The mean follow-up duration was 3.4 ± 24 years. The MASLD group had higher rates of obesity, diabetes, and chronic kidney disease than their counterparts. Patients with MASLD had early excess all-cause mortality (6.8% vs 3.6%, p<0.001) at 30 days, with unfavorable mortality rates sustained in the long-term (18.3% vs 14.5%, p=0.001) compared to those without MASLD. After adjustment, MASLD remained independently associated with higher long-term all-cause mortality (HR 1.338, 95% CI 1.115-1.604). Conclusion MASLD embodies a higher burden of metabolic dysfunction and is an independent predictor of long-term mortality in the AMI population. Its early identification may be beneficial for risk stratification and provide therapeutic targets for secondary preventive strategies in AMI.Kaplan Meier curve of long-term all-caus

Baseline shock index-creatinine clearance score and long-term mortality after ACS. Results from 24 years of follow-up of the ABC study on heart disease

Abstract Background Shock Index-Creatinine Clearance score (SI-C) is an updated version of the shock index that includes renal function. Recent studies reported its potential as a novel and simple risk stratification tool for predicting in-hospital mortality in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients. Purpose To assess the long-term predictive value of baseline SI-C score in patients after ACS. Methods This preliminary prospective analysis included 589 patients with ACS admitted to three Italian hospitals and discharged alive. Baseline clinical and laboratory data were collected within the first 7 hospitalization days and baseline SI-C score was calculated as [(SI×100)-estimated creatinine clearance]. Patients were prospectively followed for 24 years or until death. Results Virtually all patients completed the follow-up, representing 7066 person-years. Patients' mean age was 66±12 years, 70% were males, and 482(82%) had died during follow-up. Compared to those who survived, deceased patients were significantly different in many of the baseline clinical characteristics. They also showed a significantly higher SI-C values ( -11± 25 vs. -36±23, p<0.0001). The predictive value of SI-C for 24-year mortality was very good (area under the curve= 0.783, 95% CI: 0.738-0.827, p<0.001). The cumulative risk was significantly higher in the upper SI-C tertile (log-rank = 162.1, p < 0.001). Unadjusted Cox regression survival analysis showed that the SI-C score was significantly associated with long-term all-cause mortality (HR: 2.1, 95%CI 1.8-2.3, p<0.0001). Similar results were obtained with the fully adjusted model. Conclusion Baseline SI-C seems to be an effective and independent predictor of long-term all-cause mortality after ACS.

Ankle brachial index,a non invasive tool predicts cardiovascular events after acute myocardial infarction:a 3 year follow -up study

Abstract Background / Introduction The ankle-brachial index (ABI) is a non-invasive tool that was initially used for the diagnosis of lower-extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD). It has been proven that ABI is a marker of atherosclerosis in other vascular sites and can therefore be used to predict cardiovascular events regardless the presence or not of PAD symptoms. Purpose This study aims to examine the prognostic value of ABI in the setting of acute myocardial infarction (MI), as up till now there is not enough relevant evidence. Method We followed up 441 patients [79% male;mean age 62 years;67% hypertnesive; 30% with diabetes mellitus (DM); 52% current smokers] who were hospitalized because of MI for a period of three years. All patients underwent baseline estimation of clinical and laboratory parameters during theri hospitalization.The ABI was measured according to established methodology using a certified automated device and abnormal ABI defined as a value ≤ 0.9. The primary endpoint was a composite of all-cause and cardiovascular death, as well as major cardiovascular events including decompensated heart failure, new acute coronary syndrome, cerebrovascular event, malignant arrhythmia, PAD event and new onset renal dysfunction. All events were assessed both in-hospital and within 3 years of follow-up. Results Our study population had a mean ABI of 1.1 (IQR: 1.00 to 1.18). With the use of reduced multivariate regression models ABI was proven to be a prognostic indicator for the in-hospital composite endpoint. Patients with an abnormal ABI had a threefold risk of in-hospital events [HR 2.93, 95% CI: 1.48-5.81, p=0.002]. After conducting multivariate analysis ABI maintained its predictive power of all-cause mortality [HR 2.88, 95% CI: 1.53 – 5.42, p=0.001], regardless of hypertension DM, LDL levels and smoking status of the study population in 3 years follow-up. Conclusion An impaired ABI is associated with greater risk of in-hospital events in patients with acute MI. Moreover, ABI emerges as an independent predictor of long-term all-cause mortality in those patients.The findings of this study suggest that subclinical and clinical PAD are associated with poor outcomes among patients with acute MI; thus, routine ABI tests enhance risk stratification and might carry important prognostic significance in these patients regardless of PAD symptoms.

Prognostic outcomes of masld and obesity in acute myocardial infarction

Abstract Background Patients with obesity and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. This study seeks to examine the prognostic significance of obesity and MASLD in patients presenting with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Methods This study compared the clinical characteristics and outcome of patients with and without obesity and MASLD at a tertiary centre in Singapore. Patients were stratified by their obesity and MASLD statuses into four groups. Obesity was defined as BMI ≥27.5. MASLD was defined as hepatic steatosis, which was determined using Hepatic Steatosis Index, and at least one of the five metabolic criteria. Cox regression analysis was used to investigate independent predictors of long-term all-cause mortality, adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, previous AMI, AMI type, and left ventricular ejection fraction. Results A total of 5702 patients with AMI were included in this study. Among the cohort, 3803 were non-obese and without MASLD, 343 were non-obese with MASLD, 638 were obese without MASLD, and 918 were obese with MASLD. The mean follow-up duration was 3.1 ± 2.4 years. Non-obese patients with MASLD were most likely to develop complications of heart failure, cardiogenic shock, and stroke. On 30-day follow-up, there were no significant differences in all-cause mortality (p=0.312). However, on long-term follow-up, non-obese MASLD patients had the highest mortality (9.6%, p=0.019). After adjusting for confounders, patients who were non-obese with MASLD, and patients who were obese with MASLD, remained independently associated with higher long-term all-cause mortality (HR 1.400, 95% CI 1.077-1.820 and HR 1.222, 95% CI 1.005-1.485 respectively), with non-obese patients without MASLD as the reference. Conclusions This study demonstrates that regardless of obesity status, patients with MASLD have poorer outcomes in AMI. With its high metabolic burden, it is important to identify patients with MASLD for risk stratification and targeted treatment.Adjusted long-term all-cause mortality

Age-Related Outcomes in Heart Failure with Mildly Reduced Ejection Fraction.

Objective: This study investigates age-related differences and outcomes in patients hospitalized with heart failure with a mildly reduced ejection fraction (HFmrEF). Background: The characterization of patients with HFmrEF and the prognostic value of age has rarely been investigated. Methods: Patients with HFmrEF were retrospectively included at one institution between 2016 and 2022. The distribution of HF aetiology and prognostic outcomes were investigated comparing patients with ≤40, >40 to ≤60, >60 to ≤80, and >80 years of age. The primary endpoint was long-term all-cause mortality. Kaplan-Meier and multivariable Cox proportional regression analyses were applied for statistics. Results: For the present study, 2184 patients with HFmrEF with a median age of 76 years were included. Non-ischemic cardiomyopathy was the most common HF aetiology in patients <40 years of age, whereas patients with 60-80 years of age (60.2%) and >80 years of age (58.2%) had the higher rates of ischemic cardiomyopathies. The risk of long-term all-cause mortality at 30 months was highest in patients with >80 years of age (HR = 2.167; 95% CI 1.928-2.436; p = 0.001), even after multivariable adjustment. Furthermore, patients with >80 years of age had the highest risk of HF-related rehospitalization (HR = 1.529; 95% CI 1.293-1.807; p = 0.001). Conclusions: Ischemic cardiomyopathy represents the most common cause of HF in elderly patients with HFmrEF, whereas younger patients were more likely to suffer from non-ischemic HF aetiologies. Increasing age was an independent predictor of long-term all-cause mortality in patients hospitalized with HFmrEF.

Association of Pan Immune-Inflammation Value with Long Term Outcomes of Acute Decompensated Heart Failure.

Although there have been significant improvements in the treatment of heart failure (HF) in recent decades, its prognosis remains poor. Although there are many biomarkers that can help predict the prognosis of patients with HF, there is a need for simpler, cheaper, and more easily available biomarkers. To evaluate the predictive value of pan-immune-inflammation value (PIV) in patients with acute decompensated HF. We analyzed 409 patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction who were hospitalized for acute decompensated HF. Patients were divided into 3 groups according to tertiles of PIV: tertile 1 (PIV < 357.25), tertile 2 (PIV ≥ 357.25 and < 834.55), and tertile 3 (PIV ≥ 834.55). P values < 0.05 were considered statistically significant. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to evaluate the association between PIV and all-cause mortality. The primary outcome was 5-year all-cause mortality, and the secondary outcomes were in-hospital 30 days,, 180-day, and 1-year all-cause mortality. We showed that higher PIV value was associated with both primary and secondary outcomes. The Kaplan-Meier curve showed that patients with higher PIV values had an increased risk of short- and long-term all-cause mortality (log-rank p < 0.001). In the multivariate analysis, PIV was identified as an independent predictor of long-term all-cause mortality in patients with acute decompensated HF, and we observed a 1.96-fold increase in the hazard of an event (odds ratio: 1.96, 95% confidence interval: 1.330 to 2.908, p = 0.001). Our study showed that the novel biomarker PIV can be used as a predictor of prognosis in patients with acute decompensated HF.

The prognostic value of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease in acute myocardial infarction: A propensity score-matched analysis.

Patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) are at increased risk of incident cardiovascular disease. However, the clinical characteristics and prognostic importance of MASLD in patients presenting with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have yet to be examined. This study compared the characteristics and outcomes of patients with and without MASLD presenting with AMI at a tertiary centre in Singapore. MASLD was defined as hepatic steatosis, with at least one of five metabolic criteria. Hepatic steatosis was determined using the Hepatic Steatosis Index. Propensity score matching was performed to adjust for age and sex. The Kaplan-Meier curve was constructed for long-term all-cause mortality. Cox regression analysis was used to investigate independent predictors of long-term all-cause mortality. In this study of 4446 patients with AMI, 2223 patients with MASLD were matched with patients without MASLD using propensity scores. The mean follow-up duration was 3.4 ± 2.4 years. The MASLD group had higher rates of obesity, diabetes and chronic kidney disease than their counterparts. Patients with MASLD had early excess all-cause mortality (6.8% vs. 3.6%, p < .001) at 30 days, with unfavourable mortality rates sustained in the long-term (18.3% vs. 14.5%, p = .001) compared with those without MASLD. After adjustment, MASLD remained independently associated with higher long-term all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.330, 95% confidence interval 1.106-1.598, p = .002). MASLD embodies a higher burden of metabolic dysfunction and is an independent predictor of long-term mortality in the AMI population. Its early identification may be beneficial for risk stratification and provide therapeutic targets for secondary preventive strategies in AMI.

Prognostic value of red cell distribution width in non-ST elevation myocardial infarction: A cohort study.

Non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) has a higher risk of long-term mortality than ST-elevation myocardial infarction; thus, identifying such high-risk patients is essential. Red cell distribution width (RDW) recently emerged as a strong predictor of mortality in several cardiovascular diseases, however, it is scarcely known whether RDW has a prognostic value in NSTEMI patients, therefore, this study aims to elucidate this issue. 421 consecutive patients with NSTEMI between January 2020 and June 2022 were prospectively enrolled. Patients were divided into 2 groups by the optimal cutoff value of RDW using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves. The optimal cutoff value of RDW for predicting all-cause mortality was 13.4 and the study population was divided into low RDW (≤13.4) and high RDW (>13.4). The primary endpoint of this study was long-term all-cause mortality. The secondary endpoint was the association between RDW and long-term adverse events, including heart failure, gastrointestinal hemorrhage, stroke events, re-infarction rate, cardiovascular mortality, and major adverse cardiovascular events. The association of RDW with the outcome was analyzed by Cox regression analysis. Patients with high RDW tended to be older, had a higher history of previous MI, a higher history of percutaneous coronary intervention, a higher level of neutrophil, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, a lower level of albumin, and a lower level of ejection fraction (all P < .05). During a median follow-up of 720 days (IQR, 534-913 days), the all-cause mortality was significantly higher in the high RDW group than in the low RDW group (24.8% vs 6.3%, P < .001). In the multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis, RDW > 13.4 was an independent predictor for long-term all-cause mortality [hazard ratio 3.008; 95% confidence interval 1.005, 9.003, P = .049]. Admission RDW could be used as a new biomarker for predicting long-term mortality in patients with NSTEMI, and high RDW was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality.

Serum Albumin-to-Creatinine Ratio: A Novel Predictor of Pulmonary Infection in Patients with ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

In patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), a low serum albumin-to-creatinine ratio (sACR) is associated with elevated risk of poor short- and long-term outcomes. However, the relationship between sACR and pulmonary infection during hospitalization in patients with STEMI undergoing PCI remains unclear. A total of 4,507 patients with STEMI undergoing PCI were enrolled and divided into three groups according to sACR tertile. The primary outcome was pulmonary infection during hospitalization, and the secondary outcome was in-hospital major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) including stroke, in-hospital mortality, target vessel revascularization, recurrent myocardial infarction, and all-cause mortality during follow-up. Overall, 522 (11.6%) patients developed pulmonary infections, and 223 (4.9%) patients developed in-hospital MACE. Cubic spline models indicated a non-linear, L-shaped relationship between sACR and pulmonary infection (P=0.039). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis indicated that sACR had good predictive value for both pulmonary infection (area under the ROC curve [AUC]=0.73, 95% CI=0.70-0.75, P＜0.001) and in-hospital MACE (AUC=0.72, 95% CI=0.69-0.76, P＜0.001). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis indicated that higher sACR tertiles were associated with a greater cumulative survival rate (P＜0.001). Cox regression analysis identified lower sACR as an independent predictor of long-term all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR]=0.96, 95% CI=0.95-0.98, P＜0.001). A low sACR was significantly associated with elevated risk of pulmonary infection and MACE during hospitalization, as well as all-cause mortality during follow-up among patients with STEMI undergoing PCI. These findings highlighted sACR as an important prognostic marker in this patient population.

Low Transvalvular Flow Rate in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation (TAVI) Is a Predictor of Mortality: The TFR-TAVI Study

Transvalvular flow rate (TFR) represents a better reflection of transvalvular flow than the stroke volume index (SVi), and has recently emerged as a useful prognostic tool in patients undergoing surgical aortic valve replacement. There is a paucity of data investigating the role of TFR and its relationship with other clinical or echocardiographic factors in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). This was a retrospective single-centre study of 629 consecutive patients who underwent TAVI between March 2009 and September 2020. Pre-TAVI low TFR was defined as <200 c/s. The primary study end point was all-cause mortality. Low TFR was observed in 41.8% (263/629) of included patients and was associated with increasing age, low body surface area, hypertension, diabetes, atrial fibrillation, left ventricular (LV) dysfunction, and significant mitral regurgitation. LV function status and severity of aortic valve disease were independent predictors of low TFR. Low TFR was significantly associated with long-term all-cause mortality even after adjustment for other risk factors (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.44; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-2.03; p=0.038). When data were stratified according to SVi, low TFR was an independent predictor of long-term all-cause mortality in patients with normal SVi (aHR 1.98; 95% CI 1.06-3.69; p=0.032) but not in patients with low SVi (HR 1.23; 95% CI 0.71-2.11; p=0.46; p=0.016 for interaction). Low TFR is common in patients undergoing TAVI and is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality, particularly in patients with normal SVi.

Abstract 14288: α1-Antichymotrypsin Complex (SERPINA3) is an Independent Predictor of Long-Term All-Cause Mortality, but Did Not Predict CVD Events

Introduction: SERPINA3 is an acute phase protein triggered by inflammation. It inhibits neutrophil cathepsin which cleaves protease-activated receptor 4 (PAR-4) via a thrombin-independent pathway, and mast cell chymase which mediates the production of angiotensin-II via an ACE-independent pathway. SERPINA3 is upregulated after an acute myocardial infarction (MI), but data on its long-term prognostic value in MI patients are scarce. Aim: To assess the utility of SERPINA3 as a prognostic marker in patients hospitalized for chest pain of suspected coronary origin. Methods: A total of 871 consecutive patients were included (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00521976). Stepwise Cox regression models, applying continuous log e -transformed values, were fitted for each of the biomarkers with all-cause mortality and cardiac death within median 24-months (mo) and all-cause mortality within median 7 years (y) as the dependent variables, adding an analysis of 1) all-cause mortality or MI, and 2) all-cause mortality or MI or stroke at 7 y follow up (FU). The hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI) was assessed in a univariate and multivariable model, adjusting for traditional clinical cardiovascular risk factors, adding BNP, hsCRP, TnT. Results: Plasma samples from 847 patients were available. At 24 mo FU, 138 (15.8%) patients had died, of which 86 were cardiac deaths. The univariate analysis showed a positive, significant association between SERPINA3 and total death [HR 1.42 (95% 1.19-1.68), p =0.000], but was not significant for cardiac death. Associations after multivariable adjustment were statistically non-significant. At 7 y FU, 332 (38.1%) patients had died. After adjustment, SERPINA3 was independently associated with all-cause mortality [HR 1.14 (95% CI, 1.02-1.28), p=0.022], but not for MI (n=203), and stroke (n=55), respectively, and remained essentially unaffected for all-cause mortality or MI combined (n=404) [HR 1.12 (95% CI, 1.01-1.24), p=0.031], slightly weakened when stroke also was added (n=422) [HR 1.10 (95% CI, 1.00-1.22), p=0.060]. Conclusions: SERPINA3 predicts long-term all-cause mortality, but had no prognostic bearing on short-term cardiac death. Introducing non-fatal CVD events during long-term FU did not improve its prognostic value.

Predictive Value of the Prognostic Nutritional Index for Long-Term Mortality in Patients with Advanced Heart Failure.

Malnutrition is common in patients with advanced heart failure (HF), and both conditions have a poor prognosis. We sought to determine the predictive value of nutritional status using the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) for long-term mortality in patients with advanced HF. This is a retrospective observational study. The optimal PNI cut-off value for predicting all-cause mortality was determined to be 50.5 using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Patients were divided into two groups: the low PNI (≤ 50.5) and high PNI (> 50.5) group. A total of 217 patients (age 48.9 ± 9.9 years, 82.5% male) with advanced HF were included in this study. The mean follow-up duration was 28.6 ± 19.4 months. The high PNI group had higher 5-year all-cause and cardiovascular death-free survival rates compared to the low PNI group (86.7% vs. 24.6%, log-rank p < 0.001) and (89.6% vs. 36.1%, log-rank p < 0.001), respectively. In multivariable Cox regression analyses, low PNI [hazard ratio (HR): 4.70; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.19-10.11, p < 0.001] and high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) (HR: 1.02; 95% CI: 1.01-1.03, p = 0.04) were found to be independent predictors of long-term all-cause mortality. Low PNI (HR: 4.52; 95% CI: 1.99-10.24, p < 0.001), hsCRP (HR: 1.01; 95% CI: 1.00-1.03, p = 0.04), and New York Heart Association class IV vs. III (HR: 2.56; 95% CI: 1.36-4.82, p = 0.03) were also found to be independent predictors of long-term cardiovascular mortality. PNI was found to be an independent predictor of long-term all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients with advanced HF, and it can be used as an objective and simple tool for risk stratification.

Expression Patterns of MiR-125a and MiR-223 and Their Association with Diabetes Mellitus and Survival in Patients with Non-ST-Segment Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome

Background: MicroRNAs (miRNA, miR) are small, non-coding RNAs which have become increasingly relevant as diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers. The objective of this study was the investigation of blood-derived miRNAs and their link to long-term all-cause mortality in patients who suffered from non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS). Methods: This study was an observational prospective study, which included 109 patients with NSTE-ACS. Analysis of the expression of miR-125a and miR-223 was conducted by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The follow-up period comprised a median of 7.5 years. Long-term all-cause mortality was considered as the primary endpoint. Adjusted Cox-regression analysis was performed for prediction of events. Results: Increased expression of miR-223 (>7.1) at the time point of the event was related to improved long-term all-cause survival (adjusted (adj.) hazard ratio (HR) = 0.09, 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 0.01-0.75; p = 0.026). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis provided sufficient c-statistics (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.73, 95%CI: 0.58-0.86; p = 0.034; negative predictive value of 98%) for miR-223 to predict long-term all-cause survival. The Kaplan-Meier time to event analysis showed a separation of the survival curves between the groups at an early stage (log rank p = 0.015). Higher plasma miR-125a levels were found in patients with diabetes mellitus vs. in those without (p = 0.010). Furthermore, increased miR-125a expression was associated with an elevated HbA1c concentration. Conclusions: In this hypothesis-generating study, higher values of miR-223 were related to improved long-term survival in patients after NSTE-ACS. Larger studies are required in order to evaluate whether miR-223 can be used as a suitable predictor for long-term all-cause mortality.

Low Prognostic Nutritional Index Predicts Adverse Outcomes in Patients With Heart Failure: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

The association of low prognostic nutritional index (PNI) with adverse outcomes remains conflicting in heart failure patients. To address these knowledge gaps, we performed this meta-analysis to investigate the predictive value of PNI in patients with heart failure (HF). PubMed and Embase databases were comprehensively searched until January 19, 2023, to identify studies that evaluated the predictive role of PNI in HF patients. Outcomes of interest included all-cause mortality and/or combined endpoint of mortality and re-hospitalization. Twelve studies involving 9365 patients with HF were included and analyzed. Comparison of the lowest with the highest PNI, the pooled multivariate adjusted risk ratio (RR) was 1.79 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.40-2.30) and 2.67 (95% CI 1.92-3.71) for long-term all-cause mortality and combined endpoint of mortality and re-hospitalization, respectively. Furthermore, per unit reduction in PNI was associated with 8% higher risk of all-cause mortality. However, there was no clear association of low PNI with in-hospital mortality. Low PNI may be an independent predictor of long-term all-cause mortality and re-hospitalization in patients with HF. Estimation of nutritional state using the PNI may provide an important clue for risk stratification in these patients.

Dugoročno preživljavanje pacijenata sa akutnim infarktom miokarda

Over the past decade, percutaneous coronary intervention and medication have decreased mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Despite this progress, AMI is still the main cause of mortality both globally, and in Serbia. Social-demographic characteristics and co-morbidities of patients are linked to increased risk from death and repeat AMI. This paper analyses the long-term survival of patients with AMI depending on their risk factors, clinical characteristics and lifestyle. This study looked at the survival of 135 patients who had suffered AMI and were first hospitalized at the Emergency Centre of the University Clinical Centre of Serbia in Belgrade, in its coronary unit, in the period 2002-2006. Their survival was tracked until 1 September 2011, and continued to 1 January 2020 by phone, to ascertain whether the patients were still living or had passed away. The data on patient characteristics were collected using a questionnaire. The results were analysed using the ch2 test, Kaplan-Meier curve and multivariate Cox regression model. During the average follow-up period of 164 months, 60 patients (48.0%) had passed away. Patients who survived were statistically significantly younger, their frequency of diabetes mellitus (DM) was statistically significantly lower and they were statistically significantly less likely to have lived alone. According to the results of the multivariate Cox regression model, the independent predictors of long-term all-cause mortality after an AMI were: living alone, DM in personal medical history and older age. Adequate measures of primary, secondary and tertiary prevention, as well as social support, may have an effect on the length of patient survival following an AMI.

Clinically unrecognized plasma volume expansion predicts long-term all-cause-mortality in chronic heart failure.

IntroductionChronic heart failure (CHF) is associated with elevated total blood volume (BV) and distinct phenotypes of total red cell volume (RCV) and plasma volume (PV) elevations. Especially PV expansion during clinical decompensation is linked with adverse clinical outcomes. The role of PV expansion in compensated CHF patients is less clear. Aim of the present study is to investigate the impact of BV parameters on long‐term mortality in CHF patients investigated at a compensated state.Methods and ResultsBV, PV and RCV were determined in 44 (9 female) compensated CHF patients using an abbreviated carbon monoxide method, who were followed up for 6.0 years, (range: 3.7–6.5 years) for all‐cause mortality. In univariate analysis PV expansion but not BV and RCV predicted all‐cause mortality (p = .021). A cutoff of 1800 ml PV/m² body‐surface area allows stratification for all‐cause mortality (p = .044). PV expansion but not RCV reduction explains the significantly lower hematocrit values of nonsurvivors.DiscussionIn this pilot study, PV expansion, which was unnoticed from a clinician's perspective, but is indicated by significantly lower hematocrit, appears to be a relevant predictor of long‐term all‐cause mortality. Whether PV expansion constitutes an adverse CHF phenotype and can be targeted by diuretic therapy is currently unclear.

Association Between the Expression of MicroRNA-125b and Survival in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome and Coronary Multivessel Disease.

BackgroundMicroRNAs (miRNA, miR) have an undeniable physiological and pathophysiological significance and act as promising novel biomarkers. The aim of the study was to investigate blood-derived miRNAs and their association with long-term all-cause mortality in patients with multivessel disease (MVD) suffering from acute coronary syndrome (ACS).Materials and MethodsThis study was an observational prospective study, which included 90 patients with MVD and ACS. Expression of miR-125a, miR-125b, and miR-223 was analysed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Patients were followed-up for a median of 7.5 years. All-cause mortality was considered as the primary endpoint. Adjusted Cox-regression analysis was performed for prediction of events.ResultsElevated expression of miR-125b (>4.6) at the time-point of ACS was associated with increased long-term all-cause mortality (adjusted [adj.] hazard ratio [HR] = 11.26, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.15–110.38; p = 0.038). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed a satisfactory c-statistics for miR-125b for the prediction of long-term all-cause mortality (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.61–0.91; p = 0.034; the negative predictive value of 98%). Kaplan–Meier time to event analysis confirmed an early separation of the survival curves between patients with high vs low expression of miR-125b (p = 0.003). An increased expression of miR-125a and miR-223 was found in patients with non-ST-segment elevation ACS (NSTE-ACS) as compared to those with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) (p = 0.043 and p = 0.049, respectively) with no difference in the expression of miR-125b between the type of ACS.ConclusionIn this hypothesis generating study, lower values of miR-125b were related to improved long-term survival in patients with ACS and MVD. Larger studies are needed to investigate whether miR-125b can be used as a suitable predictor for long-term all-cause mortality.

Implantable device measured objective daily physical activity as a predictor of long-term all-cause mortality and cardiac death in patients with age\u2009>\u200975\u2009years and high risk of sudden cardiac death: a cohort study

BackgroundTo study the relationship between objective daily physical activity (PA), as measured by implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs)/cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillators (CRTDs), and long-term prognoses in patients with age > 75 years at high risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD).MethodsIn total, 133 patients with age > 75 years old (age 79.52 ± 3.68 years) in the SUMMIT study were retrospectively analysed. The major endpoint was all-cause mortality, and the minor endpoint was cardiac death.ResultsThe mean follow-up time was 57.1 ± 24.2 months (range: from 4 to 96 months). In total, 46 all-cause mortality and 23 cardiac death events occurred. The receiver operating characteristic curve indicated a baseline PA cut-off value of 6.47% (93 min/day) can predict all-cause mortality in patients with age > 75 years, with an area under the curve of 0.670 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.573–0.767, P = 0.001). The sensitivity was 67.4%, and the specificity was 66.7%. Patients with baseline PA ≤ 6.47% had higher rates of all-cause mortality (51.7% vs 20.5%, P < 0.001) and cardiac death (25.0% vs 11.0%, P = 0.040). The estimated Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that patients with PA ≤ 6.47% had an increased cumulative incidence of all-cause mortality (Log-rank P < 0.0001) and cardiac death (Log-rank P = 0.0067). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that PA ≤ 6.47% was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR) 3.137, 95% CI: 1.667–5.904, P < 0.001) and cardiac death (HR value 3.345, 95% CI: 1.394–8.028, P = 0.007).ConclusionsDaily PA of about 1.5 h was associated with lower all-cause mortality and cardiac death risk in patients with age > 75 years and high risk of SCD with ICDs/CRTDs. PA monitoring may aid in long-term management of older patients at high risk of SCD.

Evaluation of the long-term prognostic ability of triglyceride-glucose index for elderly acute coronary syndrome patients: a cohort study

BackgroundWith the advancement of the world population aging, more attention should be paid to the prognosis of elderly patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index is a reliable indicator of insulin resistance (IR) and is closely related to traditional risk factors of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the effect of TyG index on the prognosis of long-term adverse events in elderly ACS patients has not been reported. This study evaluated the prognostic power of TyG index in predicting adverse events in elderly ACS patients.MethodsIn this study, 662 ACS patients > 80 years old who were hospitalized from January 2006 to December 2012 were enrolled consecutively and the general clinical data and baseline blood biochemical indicators were collected. The follow-up time after discharge was 40–120 months (median, 63 months; interquartile range, 51‒74 months). In addition, the following formula was used to calculate the TyG index: Ln [fasting TG (mg/dL) × FBG (mg/dL)/2], and patients were divided into three groups according to the tertile of the TyG index.ResultsThe mean age of the subjects was 81.87 ± 2.14 years, the proportion of females was 28.10%, and the mean TyG index was 8.76 ± 0.72. The TyG index was closely associated with the traditional risk factors of CVD. In the fully-adjusted Cox regression model, the Hazard ratio (95% CI) of all-cause mortality (in tertile 3) was 1.64 (1.06, 2.54) and major adverse cardiac event (MACE) (in tertile 3) was 1.36 (1.05, 1.95) for each SD increase in the TyG index. The subgroup analyses also confirmed the significant association of the TyG index and long-term prognosis.ConclusionThe TyG index is an independent predictor of long-term all-cause mortality and MACE in elderly ACS patients.