Predictive Value For All-cause Mortality Research Articles

Prognosis of different hemodynamic classifications in patients with pulmonary hypertension due to left heart disease

Objective: To compare the prognostic values of different classification by using transpulmonary pressure gradient (TPG), diastolic pressure gradient (DPG) and pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) in patients with pulmonary hypertension due to left heart disease (PH-LHD), and investigated hemodynamic and clinical factors associated with mortality in patients with PH-LHD. Methods: This was a single-center prospective cohort study. In-hospital patients diagnosed with PH-LHD via right heart catheterization at the Department of Cardiology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, from September 2013 to December 2019 were enrolled. Patients were divided according to TPG (cutoff value 12 mmHg; 1 mmHg=0.133 kPa), DPG (cutoff value 7 mmHg), PVR (cutoff value 3 Wood Units), and the combination of TPG and PVR. Baseline characteristic was recorded. All patients were followed up until the occurrence of endpoint event, defined as all-cause death that occurred during the follow-up period, or until April 18, 2022. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to compare the predictive value of 3 classification methods for all-cause death in PH-LHD patients. The optimal cutoff values were calculated using Jorden index. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier analysis, and log-rank test was used to compare the predictive efficacy of classification methods based on optimal cutoff values or guidance-recommended thresholds for the survival of PH-LHD patients. Variables showing statistical significance in the univariate analysis were incorporated into multivariate Cox regression model to analyze the independent risk factors for all-cause mortality. Results: A total of 243 patients were enrolled, aged (54.9±12.7) years old, including 169 (69.5%) males. During a median follow-up of 57 months, there were 101 (41.6%) deaths occurred. Grouping results were as follows: (1) TPG: TPG≤12 mmHg group 115 patients, TPG>12 mmHg group 128 patients; (2) DPG: DPG<7 mmHg group 193 patients, DPG≥7 mmHg group 50 patients; (3) PVR: PVR≤3 Wood Units group 108 patients, PVR>3 Wood Units group 135 patients; (4) TPG and PVR: TPG≤12 mmHg and PVR≤3 Wood Units group 89 patients, TPG>12 mmHg and PVR>3 Wood Units group 109 patients. PVR (AUC=0. 698,95%CI:0.631-0.766) had better predictive value for all-cause mortality than TPG (AUC=0.596, 95%CI: 0.523-0.669) and DPG (AUC=0.526, 95%CI: 0.452-0.601) (all P<0.05). The optimal cutoff values for TPG, DPG, and PVR were13.9 mmHg, 2.8 mmHg, and 3.8 Wood Units, respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis based on the optimal cutoff values or guidance-recommended thresholds showed that PVR and TPG were the predictors of survival (P<0.05), while DPG did not showed significance (P>0.05). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age, PVR and log2N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide were independent risk factors for all-cause mortality in PH-LHD patients (all P<0.05). Conclusion: Classification according to PVR was most valuable in predicting all-cause death in PH-LHD patients, while TPG showed moderate predictive ability and DPG had no predictive value.

The predictive value of CHA2DS2-VASc score on the prognosis of patients with atrial fibrillation based on a prospective cohort study.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most prevalent cardiac arrhythmia encountered in clinical practice, and it is associated with an increased risk of mortality, stroke, and peripheral embolism. The risk of stroke in AF is heterogeneous and dependent on underlying clinical conditions included in current risk stratification schemes. Recently, the CHA2DS2-VASc score has been incorporated into guidelines to encompass common stroke risk factors observed in routine clinical practice. The aim of this study was to study the predictive value of CHA2DS2-VASc score on the prognosis of patients with AF to determine the correlation of major complications including cerebral infarction and intracranial hemorrhage in patients with AF with oral anticoagulant and antiplatelet aggregation drugs and to identify the risk factors for all-cause mortality. A prospective study was conducted on 181 patients with AF who underwent physical examinations at Hai'an Qutang Central Hospital from January 2020 to December 2020. The patient's general condition, chronic disease history, CHA2DS2-VASc [congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years (doubled), diabetes, stroke (doubled), vascular disease, age 65 to 74 years, and sex category (female)] score, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), lipid metabolism, and oral anticoagulant and antiplatelet aggregation medication during physical examination were recorded. By using telephone meetings to complete the follow-up, we tracked the patient's cerebral infarction, intracranial hemorrhage, and survival status within 2 years of follow-up, statistically analyzed the relationship between AF complications and medication, and grouped patients with AF based on the CHA2DS2-VASc score to evaluate its predictive ability for mortality outcomes in these patients. The patients were divided into four groups according to the medication situation, and the incidence of cerebral infarction in the combination group was significantly lower than that in the non-medication group (0.0% vs. 19.2%; P<0.01). The incidence of intracranial hemorrhage in the combination group was significantly higher than that in the non-drug group (13.8% vs. 0.0%; P<0.01). The logistic regression model indicated that patients with a history of cerebral infarction had an increased risk of death compared to those without a history of cerebral infarction [odds ratio (OR) =7.404; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.255-24.309]. After grouping according to the CHA2DS2-VASc score, we found that there was a significant difference in the 2-year survival rate between patients with CHA2DS2-VASc score <5 and those with a score ≥5 (P<0.01). The characteristic curve analysis of the participants showed that the CHA2DS2-VASc score had good predictive ability for all-cause mortality in patients with AF (area under the curve =0.754), with a cutoff value of 4, a sensitivity of 62.50%, a specificity of 86.06%, and a 95% CI of 0.684-0.815. The CHA2DS2-VASc score demonstrated high predictive value for all-cause mortality in patients with AF.

Blood urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio in heart failure: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

The meta-analysis is to evaluate the predictive value of the blood urea nitrogen / creatinine ratio (BCR) for long-term outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF). PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane library, and Web of Science were searched for relevant studies from inception to October 2023. STATA SE 14.0 software was used for statistical analysis. A total of 2036 reports were identified with 14 studies meeting pre-designed inclusion criteria. Three long-term outcomes were investigated. In patients with HF, the increase of BCR level indicated a greater risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 1.67, 95% CI 1.38-2.00; I2 = 90.8%, P = 0.000). The acute HF (AHF) subgroup demonstrated a higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 1.79, 95% CI 1.15-2.79; I2 = 93.9%, P = 0.000) as did the non-AHF subgroup (HR = 1.51, 95% CI 1.34-1.71; I2 = 37.1%, P = 0.122). The subgroup (≤ 70 years old) demonstrated a lower risk of all-cause mortality in patients with HF (HR = 1.62, 95% CI 1.35-1.94; I2 = 68.3%, P = 0.004) as did the subgroup (> 70 years old) (HR = 1.67, 95% CI 1.19-2.34; I2 = 88.3%, P = 0.000). In addition, this study did not support the predictive value of BCR in CVD mortality (HR = 1.48, 95% CI 0.91-2.43; I2 = 63%, P = 0.100) and HF hospitalization (HR = 1.28, 95% CI 0.73-2.24; I2 = 77.5%, P = 0.035). Sensitivity analysis showed that all the results were robust. In summary, the results showed that the blood urea nitrogen / creatinine ratio (BCR) had a significant predictive value for all-cause mortality in patients with heart failure and was a fairly promising predictor obviously. Moreover, more studies are needed to further determine the predictive value of BCR in other long-term outcomes such as CVD mortality, HF hospitalization or aborted cardiac arrest.

Cystatin C is a predictor for long-term All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality in US Adults with Metabolic Syndrome.

This study examined the relationship between Cystatin C (CysC) levels and all-cause, CVD, and cancer mortality in US metabolic syndrome (MetS) patients. The 1999-2002 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) prospective cohort research included 1,980 MetS participants. To assess CysC levels and all-cause, CVD, and cancer mortality, fitted curves, Kaplan-Meier survival curves, cox regression analysis, and ROC curves were performed. During a mean follow-up of 15.3 ± 5.4 years, a total of 819 deaths occurred. The fitted and Kaplan-Meier survival curves revealed that greater CysC levels were linked to higher all-cause, CVD, and cancer mortality rates (P<0.05). After adjusting for variables, CysC level was associated with all-cause, CVD, and cancer mortality at 1.63 (1.42-1.88), 1.53 (1.19-1.95), and 1.53 (1∼2.32), respectively (P<0.05). Later tertile models showed consistent results. High CysC tertile participants showed higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR 1.87; 1.43-2.45), CVD mortality (HR 1.97, 1.15∼3.38), and cancer mortality (HR 1.72, 1.01∼2.91) compared to those in the lowest tertile (P<0.05). Subgroup studies by sex and other characteristics confirmed the findings. CysC demonstrated the higher predictive efficacy across mortality outcomes, followed by eGFR, outperforming Urea nitrogen, Creatinine, Uric acid, and CRP. CysC alone exhibited substantial predictive value for all-cause (AUC 0.773; P<0.05) and CVD mortality (AUC 0.726; P<0.05). Combining CysC with age enhanced the predictive value for all-cause mortality to 0.861 and CVD mortality to 0.771 (P<0.05). MetS patients with elevated CysC levels have a higher risk of all-cause, CVD, and cancer death. CysC may predict MetS all-cause and CVD mortality.

Multimarker Approach to Improve Risk Stratification of Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

BackgroundA blood multimarker approach may be useful to enhance risk stratification in patients undergoing TAVI. ObjectivesThe objective of this study was to determine the prognostic value of multiple blood biomarkers in transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) patients. MethodsIn this prospective study, several blood biomarkers of cardiovascular function, inflammation, and renal function were measured in 362 patients who underwent TAVI. The cohort was divided into 3 groups according to the number of elevated blood biomarkers (ie, ≥ median value for the whole cohort) for each patient before the procedure. Survival analyses were conducted to evaluate the association between blood biomarkers and risk of adverse event following TAVI. ResultsDuring a median follow-up of 2.5 (IQR: 1.9-3.2) years, 34 (9.4%) patients were rehospitalized for heart failure, 99 (27%) patients died, and 113 (31.2%) met the composite endpoint of all-cause mortality or heart failure rehospitalization. Compared to patients with 0 to 3 elevated biomarkers (referent group), those with 4 to 7 and 8 to 9 elevated biomarkers had a higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 1.54 [95% CI: 0.84-2.80], P = 0.16, and HR: 2.81 [95% CI: 1.53-5.15], P < 0.001, respectively) and of the composite endpoint (HR: 1.65 [95% CI: 0.95-2.84], P = 0.07, and HR: 2.67 [95% CI: 1.52-4.70] P < 0.001, respectively). Moreover, adding the number of elevated blood biomarkers into the clinical multivariable model provided significant incremental predictive value for all-cause mortality (Net Reclassification Index = 0.71, P < 0.001). ConclusionsAn increasing number of elevated blood biomarkers is associated with higher risks of adverse clinical outcomes following TAVI. The blood multimarker approach may be helpful to enhance risk stratification in TAVI patients.

External Validation of COOL-AF Scores in the Asian Pacific Heart Rhythm Society Atrial Fibrillation Registry

BackgroundThe COOL-AF (Cohort of Antithrombotic Use and Optimal International Normalized Ratio Levels in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation) risk scores for death, bleeding, and thromboembolic events (TEs) were derived from the COOL-AF cohort from Thailand and require external validation. ObjectivesThe authors sought to externally validate the COOL-AF scores in the APHRS (Asia-Pacific Heart Rhythm Society) registry and to compare their performance in the ESC-EHRA (European Society of Cardiology-European Heart Rhythm Association) EORP-AF (EURObservational Research Programme in Atrial Fibrillation) General Long-Term Registry. MethodsWe studied 3,628 APHRS and 8,825 EORP-AF patients. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and Cox regression analyses were used to test the predictive value of COOL-AF scores and to compared them with the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores. ResultsPatients in the EORP-AF were older, had a higher prevalence of male sex, and were at higher thromboembolic and hemorrhagic risk than APHRS patients. After 1 year of follow-up in APHRS and EORP-AF, the following events were recorded: 87 (2.4%) and 435 (4.9%) death for any causes, 37 (1.0%) and 111 (1.3%) major bleeding, and 25 (0.7%) and 109 (1.2%) TEs, respectively. In APHRS, the COOL-AF scores showed moderate-to-good predictive value for all-cause mortality (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.71-0.83), major bleeding (AUC: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.60-0.76), and TEs (AUC: 0.61; 95% CI: 0.51-0.71), and were similar to the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores. In EORP-AF, the predictive value of COOL-AF for all-cause mortality (AUC: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.65-0.70) and major bleeding (AUC: 0.61; 95% CI: 0.60-0.62) was modest and lower than in APHRS. In EORP-AF, the COOL-AF score for TE was inferior to the CHA2DS2-VASc score. ConclusionsThe COOL-AF risk scores may be an easy tool to identify Asian patients with AF at risk for death and major bleeding and performs better in Asian than in European patients with AF. (Clinical Survey on the Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation in Asia [AF-Registry]; NCT04807049)

The prognostic utility of GRACE risk score in predictive adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with NSTEMI and multivessel disease

BackgroundGRACE risk score models are capable of predicting all-cause mortality of non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) patients. However, its utility for evaluating major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in NSTEMI patients with multivessel disease (MVD) remains unclear.Methods and resultsThis study was designed as a retrospective cohort study that recruited patients with NSTEMI and multivessel disease between September 2013 and December 2018 in Daping Hospital, Chongqing, China. The primary outcome was a composite outcome that included all-cause mortality, recurrent angina, non-fatal myocardial infarction, coronary re-vascularization, and non-fatal strokes. Of the 827 patients with NSTEMI, 32 did not complete follow-up and 430 were excluded because of single-vessel disease. The remaining 365 NSTEMI patients with MVD had a median follow-up of 3.0 (IQR 2.6–3.3) years, 78 patients experienced outcomes. The GRACE risk score predicted the MACE (hazard ratio 1.014, 95% CI 1.006–1.021, P < 0.001). The GRACE risk score performed well in predicting all-cause mortality (c-statistic 0.72, 95% CI 0.59–0.85, P = 0.001) in MVD but was less powerful in predicting MACE (c-statistic 0.69, 95% CI 0.62–0.75, P < 0.001). When combining the GRACE risk score with the SYNTAX score, and blood urea nitrogen for predicting all-cause mortality and MACE events, the c-statistic value increased to 0.82 and 0.81 (P < 0.001).ConclusionIn NSTEMI patients with MVD, the GRACE score showed an acceptable predictive value for all-cause mortality, but it was less powerful in predicting MACE. Blood urea nitrogen may be valuable in assessing long-term cardiovascular events in patients with MVD.

The predictive value of high sensitivity troponin measurements in patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors.

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have revolutionized the treatment of cancer; however, at the potential cost of serious adverse events including cardiac injury. To assess the baseline and longitudinal changes in high sensitivity-Troponin (hs-Tn) in patients treated with pembrolizumab as a potential predictor for the development of major adverse cardiac events (MACE) and survival. We performed a retrospective analysis of cancer patients treated with pembrolizumab at our center. All participants had baseline measurements of hs-TnI prior to initiation of pembrolizumab (T1), with half of the patients performing follow-up measurements at their second encounter for therapy introduction (T2). We first evaluated the prevalence of abnormally elevated serum hs-TnI (> 50nanogram per liter) at T1 and T2. We then evaluated the predictive value of abnormal levels at T1 or T2 in relation to the development of MACE (composite outcomes of myocarditis, acute coronary syndrome, heart failure, venous thromboembolism, cardiovascular hospitalization and cardiovascular mortality) and all-cause mortality. Among 135 patients, the mean age was 72years, predominantly male (61%). Abnormally elevated hs-TnI at T1 was observed in 7 (5%) patients and emerged as a significant independent predictor for MACE (HR 8.1, 95% CI 1.67-37.4, p = 0.009) and all-cause mortality (HR 5.37, 95% CI 2.1-13.57, p < 0.001). Abnormally elevated hs-TnI at T2 was observed in 8 (11%) patients and emerged as a significant independent predictor for MACE (HR 10.49, 95% CI 1.68-65.5, p = 0.009), but not for mortality (p = 0.200). Abnormally elevated baseline and follow-up hs-TnI served as significant independent predictors for MACE, with an increased risk of development being 8-tenfold. Furthermore, elevated baseline hs-TnI showed a predictive value for all-cause mortality. Central illustration: Novel immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICIs) therapy has been found to revolutionize cancer therapy through increased activation of host immune systems to target and reduce tumor burden, but may come at the cost of serious adverse cardiac events. Identification of early biomarkers for the prediction and detection of these events is necessary.

Impact of red cell distribution width and red cell distribution width/albumin ratio on all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes and foot ulcers: a retrospective cohort study

BackgroundRed blood cell distribution width (RDW) has emerged as a prognostic factor for mortality in various diseases. Up to now, few studies have focused on the prognostic value of RDW in patients with diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs). This retrospective cohort study aimed to investigate the impact of RDW and RDW/albumin (ALB) ratio on all-cause mortality in patients with DFUs.MethodsThis study included 860 patients with DFUs in a tertiary academic hospital. The associations of RDW and RDW/ALB with all-cause mortality were assessed by multivariable cox regression analyses. The pairwise comparisons of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were performed to compare the predictive performance of RDW and RDW/ALB ratio. Harrell’s concordance index, integrated discrimination improvement, and net reclassification improvement were used to estimate the improvements in risk discrimination.ResultsPatients with high RDW and RDW/ALB had lower overall survival rates (all P < 0.001). The multivariable Cox regression revealed that high RDW [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 2.426, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.557–3.778, P < 0.001] and high RDW/ALB (adjusted HR 2.360, 95% CI: 1.414–3.942, P = 0.001) were independent associated with high all-cause mortality. In subgroup analyses, the comparative analysis of ROC curves revealed that the discriminating ability of the RDW/ALB ratio was significantly superior to RDW in patients with no severe DFUs or no severe peripheral artery disease, or in young and middle-aged patients (all P < 0.05). Adding RDW and RDW/ALB ratio to base models improved discrimination and risk reclassification for all-cause mortality.ConclusionsRDW and RDW/ALB ratio are robust and independent prognostic markers in patients with DFUs. The RDW/ALB ratio appears to be of more predictive value for mortality in younger and less severely ill patients with DFUs. Both RDW and RDW/ALB ratio can provide incremental predictive value for all-cause mortality over traditional risk factors. RDW and RDW/ALB ratio can be used to identify high-risk patients with DFUs.

Prognostic utility of the prognostic nutritional index combined with serum sodium level in patients with heart failure

Background and aimsBoth malnutrition and hyponatremia (serum sodium <135 mmol/L) can be induced by the impaired absorption function of the edematous intestinal wall caused by heart failure (HF) and are prognostic factors of mortality in HF. However, little is known about the interrelationship of nutritional status and hyponatremia in mortality risk prediction in HF. Methods and resultsThis study enrolled 2882 HF patients admitted to the HF care unit of Fuwai Hospital, Beijing, China from 2008 to 2018; 71.3% were male and the mean age was 56.64 ± 15.96 years. Nutritional status was assessed by prognostic nutritional index (PNI), calculated as serum albumin (g/L) + 5 × total lymphocyte count (109/L). Lower PNI indicates worse nutritional status. Patients were divided into 8 groups based on baseline PNI quartiles (Q1: <43.6, Q2: 43.6–48.55, Q3: 48.55–63.25, Q4: >63.25) and sodium level (normal sodium and hyponatremia). After adjustment, patients in the PNI Q1 associated with hyponatremia had a 2.12-fold higher risk of all-cause death (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.67–2.70) compared with those in the PNI Q4 with normal sodium. A refinement in risk prediction was observed after adding PNI quartile and serum sodium category to the original model (ΔC-statistic = 0.018, 95% CI: 0.007–0.025; net re-classification index = 0.459, 95% CI: 0.371–0.548; integrated discrimination improvement = 0.025, 95% CI: 0.018–0.032). ConclusionHF patients with both the lowest PNI quartile and hyponatremia are at higher risk of all-cause mortality. The combination of PNI and serum sodium level enhanced the predictive value for all-cause mortality in hospitalized HF patients. Clinical trial registrationURL: ClinicalTrials.gov; Unique Identifier: NCT02664818.

Association of Four Nutritional Scores With All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality in the General Population.

Background and AimsMalnutrition is a well known risk factor for adverse outcomes in patients with cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic kidney disease, but epidemiological evidence on its relationship with the long-term risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular death is limited.MethodsA total of 20,116 adults from the United States National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007–2014 were enrolled. The Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI), Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI), Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) score, and Triglycerides (TG) × Total Cholesterol (TC) × Body Weight (BW) Index (TCBI) were calculated at baseline. Cox regression and the Kaplan–Meier analysis were conducted when participants were divided into three groups according to the tertiles of objective nutritional scores. Restricted cubic spline was performed to further explore the shape of the relationship between all-cause mortality, cardiovascular death, and nutritional scores. In addition, the area under the curve (AUC), continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were conducted to assess which nutritional scores have the greatest predictive value for all-cause death and cardiovascular death in the general population.ResultsThe cumulative incidence of all-cause death and cardiovascular death was significantly higher in participants with a higher CONUT score, lower GNRI, and lower PNI. TCBI showed the worst performance on grading and risk assessment. After adjusting confounding factors, the lowest PNI and GNRI tertile and highest COUNT score were independently and significantly associated with increased risk of all-cause death (all P < 0.01) and cardiovascular death (all P < 0.05) analyzed by a multivariate Cox regression model. An L-shaped association between the HR (hazard ratio) of all-cause mortality and nutritional scores (GNRI, PNI and TCBI) was observed in the overall populations. In addition, the PNI had the highest predictive value for all-cause mortality [AUC: 0.684, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.667–0.701] and cardiovascular death (AUC: 0.710, 95% CI: 0.672–0.749) in the general population compared with other nutritional scores.ConclusionThe poorer the nutritional status of the general population, the higher the all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality. The PNI score may provide more useful predictive values than other nutritional scores.

Thoracic Aortic Calcium for the Prediction of Stroke Mortality (from the Coronary Artery Calcium Consortium)

Thoracic aortic calcium(TAC) is an important marker of extracoronary atherosclerosis with established predictive value for all-cause mortality. We sought to explore the predictive value of TAC for stroke mortality, independent of the more established coronary artery calcium (CAC) score. The CAC Consortium is a retrospectively assembled database of 66,636 patients aged ≥18 years with no previous history of cardiovascular disease, baseline CAC scans for risk stratification, and follow-up for 12 ± 4 years. CAC scans capture the adjacent thoracic aorta, enabling assessment of TAC from the same images. TAC was available in 41,066 (62%), and was primarily analyzed as present or not present. To account for competing risks for nonstroke death, we utilized multivariable-adjusted Fine and Gray competing risk regression models adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors and CAC score. The mean age of participants was 53.8 ± 10.3 years, with 34.4% female. There were 110 stroke deaths during follow-up. The unadjusted subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) for stroke mortality in those who had TAC present compared with those who did not was 8.80 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.97, 12.98). After adjusting for traditional risk factors and CAC score, the SHR was 2.21 (95% CI:1.39,3.49). In sex-stratified analyses, the fully adjusted SHR for females was 3.42 (95% CI: 1.74, 6.73) while for males it was 1.55 (95% CI: 0.83, 2.90). TAC was associated with stroke mortality independent of CAC and traditional risk factors, more so in women. The presence of TAC appears to be an independent risk marker for stroke mortality.

Abstract 14240: Thoracic Aortic Calcium for the Prediction of Stroke Mortality: The Coronary Artery Calcium Consortium

Introduction: Thoracic aortic calcium(TAC) is an important marker of extra-coronary atherosclerosis with known predictive value for all-cause mortality. We sought to explore the predictive value of TAC for stroke mortality, independent of the more established coronary artery calcium score. Methods: The Coronary Artery Calcium(CAC) Consortium is a retrospectively assembled database of 66,636 patients aged ≥18 years with no prior history of cardiovascular disease, who had CAC scans done for risk stratification and were followed-up for an average of 12±4years. CAC scans capture a view of the adjacent thoracic aorta, enabling us to assess TAC at no extra cost. TAC was analyzed as present or not present and we restricted analysis to those with this information available. To account for competing risks for death from other causes, we utilized multivariable-adjusted competing risk regression models adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors (age, sex, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, cigarette smoking, diabetes, family history of CHD) and CAC score. We report the relationship between TAC and stroke mortality using sub-distribution hazard ratios(SHR) with 95% CI. Results: There were 41,066 patients with information on TAC, 110 of whom had stroke mortality. The mean age of participants was 53.8±10.3 years, with 34.4% female. The unadjusted SHR for stroke mortality among those who had TAC compared to those who did not was 8.80(95%CI:5.97,12.98). After adjusting for traditional risk factors and CAC score, the SHR was 2.21(95%CI:1.39,3.49). The fully adjusted SHR for females was 3.42(95%CI:1.74,6.73) while for males it was 1.55(95%CI:0.83,2.90). Conclusion: TAC was predictive of stroke mortality independent of traditional risk factors and CAC, more so in females. The presence of TAC appears to be an independent marker of stroke mortality risk though further research is needed to study its incremental value over existing cardiovascular risk prediction models.

Using CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores for mortality prediction in patients with chronic kidney disease

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a public health issue and is associated with high morbidity and mortality. How to identify the high-risk CKD patients is very important to improve the long-term outcome. CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores are clinically useful scores to evaluate the risk of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation. However, there was no literature discussing about the usefulness of CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores for cardiovascular (CV) and all-cause mortality prediction in CKD patients. This longitudinal study enrolled 437 patients with CKD. CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores were calculated for each patient. CV and all-cause mortality data were collected for long-term outcome prediction. The median follow-up to mortality was 91 (25th–75th percentile: 59–101) months. There were 66 CV mortality and 165 all-cause mortality. In addition to age and heart rate, CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores (both P value < 0.001) were significant predictors of CV and all-cause mortality in the multivariate analysis. Besides, in direct comparison of multivariate model, basic model + CHA2DS2-VASc score had a better additive predictive value for all-cause mortality than basic model + CHADS2 score (P = 0.031). In conclusion, our study showed both of CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores were significant predictors for long-term CV and all-cause mortality in CKD patients and CHA2DS2-VASc score had a better predictive value than CHADS2 score for all-cause mortality in direct comparison of multivariate model. Therefore, using CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores to screen CKD patients may be helpful in identifying the high-risk group with increased mortality.

Research Highlights

Research Highlights

Usefulness of ankle-brachial index calculated using diastolic blood pressure for prediction of mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction.

A low ankle-brachial index (ABI) calculated using systolic blood pressure (SBP) (ABIsbp) is associated with poor cardiovascular outcome in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). ABI is always calculated using SBP clinically. However, there was no study investigating ABI calculated using mean artery pressure (MAP)(ABImap) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP)(ABIdbp) for mortality prediction in AMI patients. Therefore, our study was aimed to investigate the issue. 199 AMI patients were enrolled. Different ABIs were measured by an ABI-form device. The median follow-up to mortality was 64months. There were 40 cardiovascular and 137 all-cause mortality. The best cutoff values of ABImbp and ABIdbp for mortality prediction were 0.91 and 0.78, respectively. After multivariate analysis, only ABIdbp and ABIdbp<0.78 could predict cardiovascular mortality (P≤.047). However, all of six ABI parameters, including ABIsbp, ABImap, ABIdbp, ABIsbp<0.90, ABImap<0.91, and ABIdbp<0.78, could predict all-cause mortality (P≤.048). In a direct comparison of six ABI models for prediction of all-cause mortality, basic model+ABIdbp <0.78 had the highest predictive value (P≤.025). In conclusion, only ABIdbp and ABIdbp<0.78 could predict cardiovascular and all-cause mortality after multivariate analysis in our study. Furthermore, when adding into a basic model, ABIdbp<0.78 had the highest additively predictive value for all-cause mortality in the six ABI parameters. Hence, calculation of ABI using DBP except SBP might provide an extra benefit in prediction of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in AMI patients.

P1488RECOVERY OF LOW TRIIODOTHYRONINE CAN IMPROVE MORTALITY IN HEMODIALYSIS PATIENTS

Abstract Background and Aims Low circulating triiodothyronine (T3) levels are the most frequently encountered thyroid functional test derangement in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients on hemodialysis. Low T3 is known as independent predictive value for all-cause mortality and, particularly, for cardiovascular-related death in patients with ESRD on hemodialysis. This study investigated that recovery of low T3 level to normal can lower mortality in ESRD patients on hemodialysis. Method We have constructed the 500 K-cohort of ESRD patients attending the hemodialysis center of 6 tertiary hospitals of South Korea to evaluate the mortality of the ESRD patients since 2016. From this prospective cohort, we invited patients with ESRD from June 2016 to May 2019 The participants were divided into four groups based on the change of the T3 level: normal group showed the normal T3 continuously, low group showed the low T3 continuously, recovery group showed the low T3 change to normal and decrease group showed the normal T3 change to low. We evaluate relationships between change of the T3 level and mortality. Statistical analysis was carried out by using SPSS. Results Of the total 500 patients in K-cohort, 333 patients were enrolled with detailed thyroid hormone profile including T3 level. 167 (50.2 %) patients out of the 333 patients showed low T3 level initially. Normal group include 126 patients(37.8%), low group include 135 patients(40.5%), recovery group include 32 patients(9.6%) and decrease group include 40 patients(12.0%). Patients with the low T3 level were older and more diabetic compare to those with normal T3 level. They had lower K-MMSE score than the others, Low T3 group had lower free T4 level but thyroid stimulating hormone(TSH) showed no significant different comparing normal T3 group. The mortality of normal group was lowest and that of decrease group was highest. The mortality of recovery group recovered to similar with that of the normal group and mortality of decrease group was highest. Lowering of T3 level would affect to mortality than low T3 level continuously. Conclusion Therefore, the change of T3 level is significantly associated with the mortality. Recover lower T3 to normal level can lower the mortality.

Association of Serum Uric Acid Concentration and Its Change with Cardiovascular Death and All-Cause Mortality.

Objective There is no consensus on the role of abnormal uric acid (UA) levels in the prognosis of patients undergoing hemodialysis. We therefore aimed to investigate the effects of changes in UA concentration on the risk of all-cause death and cardiac death in such patients. Method In this retrospective cohort study, patients admitted to two hemodialysis centers performing maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) in Wuhan First Hospital and Fourth Hospital Hemodialysis Center from January 1, 2007, to October 31, 2017, were included. Results In all, 325 patients undergoing MHD aged 59.7 ± 14.7 years, including 195 men (60%), were enrolled, with a median follow-up of 37 months. Serum UA (p < 0.001) was significantly higher in the surviving group than in the death group. No significant difference was found in UA variability (p < 0.001) was significantly higher in the surviving group than in the death group. No significant difference was found in UA variability (p < 0.001) was significantly higher in the surviving group than in the death group. No significant difference was found in UA variability (p < 0.001) was significantly higher in the surviving group than in the death group. No significant difference was found in UA variability (p < 0.001) was significantly higher in the surviving group than in the death group. No significant difference was found in UA variability (p < 0.001) was significantly higher in the surviving group than in the death group. No significant difference was found in UA variability (p < 0.001) was significantly higher in the surviving group than in the death group. No significant difference was found in UA variability (p < 0.001) was significantly higher in the surviving group than in the death group. No significant difference was found in UA variability (Conclusion Low UA levels were closely related to all-cause mortality in patients undergoing MHD. Although UA levels had no significant effect on cardiac death, they had a good predictive value for long-term prognosis in patients on MHD.

SUN-072 PROGNOSTIC VALUE OF SOLUBLE ST2 AND SOLUBLE LR11 ON MORTALITY AND CARDIOVASCULAR EVENT IN PERITONEAL DIALYSIS PATIENTS

Because end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients are at high risk of cardiovascular (CV) disease, developing a biomarker for CV risk stratification has clinical importance. Soluble form of suppression of tumorigenicity 2 (sST2) and soluble low-density lipoprotein receptor relative with 11 ligand-binding repeats (sLR11) are emerging CV biomarkers, however, to date, the prognostic value of those has not been investigated in patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis (PD). We determined serum sST2 and sLR11 concentrations using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, and evaluated the association of those biomarkers with all-cause mortality and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular event (MACCE) in 74 prevalent PD patients. The median (interquartile range) concentrations of sST2 and sLR11 were 70.9 (57.8-89.8) ng/mL and 15.2 (12.3-19.6) ng/mL, respectively. During a median follow-up of 38.5 months, 13 (17.6%) patients died and MACCE was observed in 23 (31.3%) patients. When patients were dichotomized by the median value of sST2 and sLR11, Kaplan-Meier analyses showed that higher sST2 group was significantly associated with lower event-free survival rates (log-rank test; P=0.002 for all-cause death; P=0.01 for MACCE). In multivariable Cox analyses, higher sST2 was independent risk factor for all-cause mortality (per 1 standard deviation [SD] increase; hazard ratio [HR]=1.947; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.124-3.371) and MACCE (per 1 SD increase; HR=1.647; 95% CI=1.079-2.516). In contrast, sLR11 did not have a significant association with all-cause mortality or MACCE. Furthermore, only sST2 provided a significant predictive value for all-cause mortality (AUC=0.699; P=0.03). sST2, not sLR11, was independently associated with greater risk of all-cause mortality and CV outcome in prevalent PD patients. Additional studies are needed to confirm these findings and examine underlying mechanism between new biomarkers and CV disease in ESRD populations

Impact of the preprocedural nutrition status on the clinical outcomes of patients after pacemaker implantation for bradycardia

BackgroundMalnutrition is associated with a poor prognosis in heart failure, angina pectoris, and peripheral artery disease. However, the clinical importance of the preprocedural nutrition status of patients requiring pacemaker implantation (PMI) for bradycardia is unclear. MethodsWe retrospectively enrolled 521 patients (median 79 years) who underwent their first PMI between January 1, 2012 and June 30, 2017. The nutrition status before implantation was assessed by the geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI). The association between the preprocedural GNRI-based nutritional status and all-cause mortality was investigated. ResultsGNRI-based high (GNRI <82) and moderate (GNRI 82 to <92) malnutrition status were found in 9.2% and 34.0%, respectively. During a median follow-up of 1178 days, 71 patients died. The mortality rate, which was analyzed using survival curves, was significantly stratified by the GNRI-based malnutrition status [high: 52.0% (25/48), moderate: 16.9% (30/177), low: 5.4% (16/296), p<0.001). On a multivariate Cox-proportional hazard analysis, GNRI-based high malnutrition status independently predicted all-cause death (hazard ratio: 4.49, 95% confidence interval: 2.59–7.80, p<0.001). A sensitivity analysis based on the controlling nutritional status score showed consistent results. On a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, GNRI had a high predictive value for all-cause mortality (area under the curve, 0.78, 95% confidence interval: 0.72–0.84, p<0.001). ConclusionsPreprocedural malnutrition was significantly associated with poor outcomes of patients who underwent PMI. Assessing the nutritional status in advance is important for risk stratification, and improving the nutritional status may be an option for managing these patients.