Predictive Factors For Long-term Outcome Research Articles

Coronal deformity angular ratio as a predictive factor for in-brace curve correction and long-term outcome of brace treatment in adolescents with idiopathic scoliosis.

To investigate the relationship between coronal deformity angular ratio (C-DAR) and in-brace correction (IBC) and their role in predicting the long-term bracing outcome in adolescents with idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). In this retrospective multicenter study, the patient's sex, age, primary curve Cobb angle (at initiation of brace treatment, best in-brace, before spinal fusion, and final follow-up), curve pattern, duration of brace treatment, brace type, and C-DAR at initiation of bracing were recorded. The C-DAR values were classified as < 5, 5 ≤ to ≤ 6, and > 6. The IBC values were classified as ≥ 50%, 40% ≤ to ≤ 49%, and < 40%. We classified the patients into two groups of success and failure according to the Cobb angle at the final follow-up. A total of 164 patients (25 boys and 119 girls) were included. Bracing was successful in 60.4% of them. There was a significant association between C-DAR and bracing outcome (p < 0.0001). 63.9% of the patients with C-DAR < 5 had an IBC ≥ 50%. However, when C-DAR was 5 ≤ to ≤ 6 and > 6, 29.2% and 16.9% of the patients had an IBC of ≥ 50%, respectively. For patients with IBC ≥ 50%, the success rate of bracing was 89.2%. Results of logistic regression analysis revealed that the strongest predictor for brace treatment outcome was the C-DAR, with an odds ratio of 2.11. C-DAR may be used as a predictive factor for the long-term outcome of brace treatment in AIS. IV.

Predictive Factors for Long-Term Outcomes of Cataract Surgery in Patients Receiving Active Treatment for Neovascular Age-Related Macular Degeneration.

Background: the safety and efficacy of cataract surgery in eyes with exudative neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD), receiving active treatment, remain unclear. We evaluated the long-term outcomes and associated predictive factors of cataract surgery in eyes with exudative nAMD. Methods: this retrospective cohort study included 65 eyes (61 patients) treated with anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) injections within six months preoperatively. Changes in best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) and anti-VEGF treatment patterns from before to up to four years after surgery were assessed. Predictive factors were identified in association with one-year surgical outcomes. Results: the BCVA improved at six months (p < 0.001) and was maintained for three years postoperatively. The interval between anti-VEGF injections increased 3.4 times postoperatively (p = 0.001). Risk factors for poor BCVA were low preoperative BCVA (p < 0.001) and prolonged nAMD duration (p = 0.003). Prolonged nAMD duration and short exudation-free period were associated with more frequent postoperative anti-VEGF treatments (p = 0.028 and p = 0.003, respectively). AMD subtypes were not associated with both vision and injection pattern outcomes. Conclusions: patients with cataracts receiving nAMD treatment can safely undergo surgery with favorable long-term visual benefits. The preoperative BCVA, nAMD duration, and exudation-free period are potential predictors of surgery outcomes.

Prediction of Long-Term Outcomes in ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction and Non-ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction with and without Creatinine Kinase Elevation-Post-Hoc Analysis of the J-MINUET Study.

Background: A Japanese prospective, nation-wide, multicenter registry (J-MINUET) showed that long-term outcomes were worse in non-ST elevation acute myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), diagnosed by increased cardiac troponin levels, compared to STEMI. This was observed in both non-STEMI with elevated creatine kinase (CK) (NSTEMI+CK) and non-STEMI without elevated CK (NSTEMI-CK). However, predictive factors for long-term outcomes in STEMI, NSTEMI+CK, and NSTEMI-CK have not been elucidated. Methods: Using the Cox proportional hazards model, we determined significant independent predictors of long-term outcomes from a total of 111 parameters evaluated in the J-MINUET study in each of our groups, including STEMI, NSTEMI+CK, and NSTEMI-CK. Then, we calculated the risk score using the regression coefficients for the determined independent predictors for the strict prediction of long-term outcomes. Results: Prognostic factors, as well as composite cardiovascular events and all-cause death, were different between STEMI, NSTEMI+CK, and NSTEMI-CK. Risk scores could effectively and powerfully predict both composite cardiovascular events and all-cause death in each group. Conclusions: The prediction of long-term outcomes using cored parameters of baseline demographics and clinical characteristics is feasible and could prove useful in establishing therapeutic strategies in patients with STEMI, NSTEMI+CK, and NSTEMI-CK.

Prognostic value of the model for end-stage liver disease excluding INR score (MELD-XI) in patients with adult congenital heart disease.

Patients with adult congenital heart disease (ACHD) are at increased risk of developing late cardiovascular complication. However, little is known about the predictive factors for long-term outcome. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease eXcluding INR (MELD-XI) score was originally developed to assess cirrhotic patients and has the prognostic value for heart failure (HF) patients. In the present study, we examined whether the score also has the prognostic value in this population. We retrospectively examined 637 ACHD patients (mean age 31.0 years) who visited our Tohoku University hospital from 1995 to 2015. MELD-XI score was calculated as follows; 11.76 x ln(serum creatinine) + 5.11 x ln(serum total bilirubin) + 9.44. We compared the long-term outcomes between the high (≥10.4) and the low (<10.4) score groups. The cutoff value of MELD-XI score was determined based on the survival classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. The major adverse cardiac event (MACE) was defined as a composite of cardiac death, HF hospitalization, and lethal ventricular arrhythmias. During a mean follow-up period of 8.6 years (interquartile range 4.4–11.4 years), MACE was noted in 51 patients, including HF hospitalization in 37, cardiac death in 8, and lethal ventricular arrhythmias in 6. In Kaplan-Meier analysis, the high score group had significantly worse MACE-free survival compared with the low score group (log-rank, P<0.001). Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that the MELD-XI score remained a significant predictor of MACE (hazard ratio 1.36, confidence interval 1.17–1.58, P<0.001) even after adjusting for patient characteristics, such as sex, functional status, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and cardiac function. Furthermore, CART analysis revealed that the MELD-XI score was the most important variable for predicting MACE. These results demonstrate that the MELD-XI score can effectively predict MACE in ACHD patients, indicating that ACHD patients with high MELD-XI score need to be closely followed.

LYMPHOCYTE COUNT AND PLATELET VOLUME PREDICTS POSTOPERATIVE COMPLICATIONS IN ESOPHAGECTOMY FOR CANCER: A COHORT STUDY.

Biomarkers from routine complete blood count are known predictive factors of long-term outcomes in cancer patients. The value of these biomarkers in the setting of trimodal therapy for esophageal cancer in predicting early postoperative outcomes is not studied. The present study evaluated the value of cellular blood components changes during neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy followed by curative intent esophagectomy for cancer in predicting postoperative mortality and morbidity. A cohort of 149 consecutive patients that underwent chemoradiotherapy using platinum- and taxane-based regimens followed by esophagectomy was analyzed. Cellular components of blood collected before neoadjuvant therapy (period A) and before surgery (period B) were assessed for postoperative mortality and complications. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were applied to evaluate the independent prognostic significance of blood count variables. Postoperative morbidity was present in 46% of the patients. On multiple regression analysis platelet volume (B) (OR: 1.53; 95% CI: 1.2-2.33) was an independent predictor of general complications. Severe postoperative surgical complications were present in 17% of the patients. On multiple regression analysis, lymphocyte decrease between B-A periods (OR: 0.992; 95% CI: 0.990-0.997) was related to higher risk for severe complications. Cervical anastomotic leakage was present in 25.6% of the patients. On univariate analysis eosinophil count in A and B periods was related to cervical anastomotic leakage. For this outcome, multivariate joint model could not identify independent risk variables of cellular components of blood. The 30-day mortality rate was 7.4%. On univariate analysis, platelet count in period B was associated to higher risk for mortality. The multivariate joint model could not accurately predict mortality due to the few number of patients in the mortality group. This is the first study to assess the relationship between peripheral blood count variables changes during neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy using a platinum- and taxane-based regimen followed by curative intent esophagectomy for cancer in predicting postoperative complications. The platelet volume prior to surgery is related to postoperative complications and the lymphocyte count change prior to surgery predicts severe postoperative complications in the setting of trimodal therapy for esophageal cancer.

Role of phospholipase A2 receptor 1 antibody level at diagnosis for long-term renal outcome in membranous nephropathy.

BackgroundMembranous nephropathy (MN) is an autoimmune disease induced by circulating antibodies against the podocyte protein phospholipase A2 receptor 1 (PLA2R1-ab) in 80% of patients and represents the leading cause of nephrotic syndrome in adults. PLA2R1-ab levels correlate with disease activity and treatment response. However, their predictive role for long-term renal outcome is not clear.MethodsThe aim of this prospective observational multicenter study was to investigate the predictive role of PLA2R1-ab levels at the time of diagnosis for long-term outcome in a cohort of 243 patients with newly diagnosed biopsy-proven PLA2R1-associated MN. Statistical analyses included Cox proportional hazard models. The primary study endpoint was defined prior to data collection as doubling of serum creatinine or development of end-stage renal disease.ResultsDuring the median follow-up time of 48 months, 36 (15%) patients reached the study endpoint. Independent predictors for reaching the study endpoint were baseline PLA2R1-ab levels (HR = 1.36, 95%CI 1.11–1.66, p = 0.01), percentage of tubular atrophy and interstitial fibrosis (HR = 1.32, 95%CI 1.03–1.68, p = 0.03), PLA2R1-ab relapse during follow-up (HR = 3.22, 95%CI 1.36–7.60, p = 0.01), and relapse of proteinuria (HR = 2.60, 95%CI 1.17–5.79, p = 0.02). Fifty-four (22%) patients received no immunosuppressive treatment during the study, in 41 (76%) of them PLA2R1-ab spontaneously disappeared during follow-up, 29 (54%) patients had a complete remission of proteinuria, and 19 (35%) had a partial remission. Patients not treated with immunosuppression were more often females and had lower PLA2R1-ab levels, proteinuria, and serum creatinine at baseline compared to patients receiving immunosuppression. However, no conclusion on the efficacy of immunosuppressive therapies can be made, since this was not a randomized controlled study and treatment decisions were not made per-protocol.ConclusionsPLA2R1-ab levels are, in addition to pre-existing renal damage, predictive factors for long-term outcome and should therefore be considered when deciding the treatment of patients with MN.

Long-term outcomes in osteosarcoma patients in the Groote Schuur Hospital patient population: A retrospective review

&lt;strong&gt;Background:&lt;/strong&gt; Predictive factors for long-term outcomes in osteosarcoma patients are still controversial. There is no literature available regarding these factors in a patient population in a developing country.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Aim and setting:&lt;/strong&gt; To determine the outcome of treatment of osteosarcoma patients treated at Groote Schuur Hospital from 1990 to 2012 in terms of locoregional control (LRC), disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) and to determine the value of suggested predictive factors in this population.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Patients and methods:&lt;/strong&gt; Retrospective review of all patients diagnosed with and treated for osteosarcoma at Groote Schuur Hospital between 1990 and 2012, considering OS, DFS and LRC. This review assesses the significance of suggested predictive factors from other studies, namely, HIV status, age at diagnosis, site of primary disease, type of chemotherapy used, response to chemotherapy and type of surgery in terms of OS, DFS and LRC.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Results:&lt;/strong&gt; Forty-three patients with histologically confirmed osteosarcoma were treated at Groote Schuur Hospital between 1990 and 2012. Median 5 year OS was 57.8%. On univariate analysis, the site of disease was the only statistically significant predictive factor for prognosis.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Conclusion:&lt;/strong&gt; On univariate analysis, patients with axial disease have a worse predicted prognosis than those with primary disease in their extremities. The clinical behaviour and long-term outcome after treatment of these patients with osteosarcoma are similar to that seen internationally.

Predictive factors for long-term outcome in polymyositis/dermatomyositis-associated interstitial lung diseases.

Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is strongly associated with polymyositis (PM), dermatomyositis (DM), and clinically amyopathic dermatomyositis (CADM). It is also related to mortality. Previous studies have highlighted that the acute form of PM/DM/CADM-associated ILD (PM/DM/CADM-ILD) has a poor short-term prognosis. However, little is known about the long-term clinical features of patients with PM/DM/CADM-ILD. The aim of the present study is to clarify the clinical characteristics and the predictive factors for long-term outcomes in patients with PM/DM/CADM-ILD. Thirty-four patients with PM/DM/CADM-ILD who were followed up for more than 12 months were analyzed retrospectively. The patients were classified as "stable" or "deterioration" according to respiratory symptoms, serial changes in forced vital capacity (FVC) or arterial oxygen pressure, and radiologic findings during the follow-up period. Twenty-six patients (76%) were in the stable group and eight patients (24%) were in the deterioration group. Home oxygen therapy was performed in six cases in the deterioration group because of chronic respiratory failure due to progression of ILD. The deterioration group, in comparison to the stable group, had a significantly lower %FVC and a higher positive rate for the anti-PL-7 antibody. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that a positive anti-PL-7 antibody test and a lower %FVC were independently associated with deterioration during long-term follow-up. Patients with PM/DM/CADM-ILD are at risk for chronic respiratory failure due to the deterioration of ILD during long-term follow-up. The presence of anti-PL-7 antibody and a lower %FVC at initial diagnosis may predict long-term deterioration in patients with PM/DM/CADM-ILD.

Predictive Factors for Long-term Outcome of Subthalamic Nucleus Deep Brain Stimulation for Parkinson's Disease.

Despite the recognition of the usefulness of subthalamic nucleus deep brain stimulation (STN-DBS) for the treatment of Parkinson’s disease (PD), preoperative predictive factors for the long-term outcome of STN-DBS are not sufficiently established. We performed this study to determine such predictive factors. The subjects were 66 patients who were classified into two groups on the basis of their activities of daily living (ADL) evaluated five years after the STN-DBS surgery: 33 patients were assigned to the independent ADL group (group I) and the remaining 33 patients to the dependent ADL group (group D). Group I patients showed a Schwab and England (S&E) scale score of more than 70 during the off-period, indicating that these patients can maintain their independent ADL all the time. Group D patients showed a score of 70 or lower during the off-period, indicating that these patients cannot maintain their independent ADL for an entire day. We studied the differences in the preoperative state between these two groups. Statistically significant differences were noted in PD onset age, age at surgery, preoperative unified Parkinson’s disease rating scale (UPDRS) part I score, part II score, total subscore for axial symptoms in part III, mini-mental state examination (MMSE) score and S&E score. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that the significant independent variables related to long-term independent ADL were the age at surgery, MMSE score and preoperative S&E scale score during the off-period. The PD onset age, age at surgery, preoperative high-level ADL, cognitive function, and axial symptoms are important predictive factors for the long-term outcome of STN-DBS.

An ecological measure of immune-cancer colocalization as a prognostic factor for breast cancer.

IntroductionAbundance of immune cells has been shown to have prognostic and predictive significance in many tumor types. Beyond abundance, the spatial organization of immune cells in relation to cancer cells may also have significant functional and clinical implications. However there is a lack of systematic methods to quantify spatial associations between immune and cancer cells.MethodsWe applied ecological measures of species interactions to digital pathology images for investigating the spatial associations of immune and cancer cells in breast cancer. We used the Morisita-Horn similarity index, an ecological measure of community structure and predator–prey interactions, to quantify the extent to which cancer cells and immune cells colocalize in whole-tumor histology sections. We related this index to disease-specific survival of 486 women with breast cancer and validated our findings in a set of 516 patients from different hospitals.ResultsColocalization of immune cells with cancer cells was significantly associated with a disease-specific survival benefit for all breast cancers combined. In HER2-positive subtypes, the prognostic value of immune-cancer cell colocalization was highly significant and exceeded those of known clinical variables. Furthermore, colocalization was a significant predictive factor for long-term outcome following chemotherapy and radiotherapy in HER2 and Luminal A subtypes, independent of and stronger than all known clinical variables.ConclusionsOur study demonstrates how ecological methods applied to the tumor microenvironment using routine histology can provide reproducible, quantitative biomarkers for identifying high-risk breast cancer patients. We found that the clinical value of immune-cancer interaction patterns is highly subtype-specific but substantial and independent to known clinicopathologic variables that mostly focused on cancer itself. Our approach can be developed into computer-assisted prediction based on histology samples that are already routinely collected.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13058-015-0638-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Rate of primary refractory disease in B and T-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphoma: correlation with long-term survival.

BackgroundPrimary refractory disease is a main challenge in the management of non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma (NHL). This survey was performed to define the rate of refractory disease to first-line therapy in B and T-cell NHL subtypes and the long-term survival of primary refractory compared to primary responsive patients.MethodsMedical records were reviewed of 3,106 patients who had undergone primary treatment for NHL between 1982 and 2012, at the Hematology Centers of Torino and Bergamo, Italy. Primary treatment included CHOP or CHOP-like regimens (63.2%), intensive therapy with autograft (16.9%), or other therapies (19.9%). Among B-cell NHL, 1,356 (47.8%) received first-line chemotherapy with rituximab. Refractory disease was defined as stable/progressive disease, or transient response with disease progression within six months.ResultsOverall, 690 (22.2%) patients showed primary refractory disease, with a higher incidence amongst T-cell compared to B-cell NHL (41.9% vs. 20.5%, respectively, p<0.001). Several other clinico-pathological factors at presentation were variably associated with refractory disease, including histological aggressive disease, unfavorable clinical presentation, Bone Marrow involvement, low lymphocyte/monocyte ration and male gender. Amongst B-cell NHL, the addition of rituximab was associated with a marked reduction of refractory disease (13.6% vs. 26.7% for non-supplemented chemotherapy, p<0.001). Overall, primary responsive patients had a median survival of 19.8 years, compared to 1.3 yr. for refractory patients. A prolonged survival was consistently observed in all primary responsive patients regardless of the histology. The long life expectancy of primary responsive patients was documented in both series managed before and after 2.000. Response to first line therapy resulted by far the most predictive factor for long-term outcome (HR for primary refractory disease: 16.52, p<0.001).ConclusionChemosensitivity to primary treatment is crucial for the long-term survival in NHL. This supports the necessity of studies aimed to early identify refractory disease and to develop different treatment strategies for responsive and refractory patients.

Donor Characteristics As Pretransplant Predictive Factors of Long-Term Outcomes After Allogeneic Peripheral Blood Stem Cell Transplantation From HLA-Matched Related and Unrelated Donors in Patients with Hematologic Malignancies

Abstract 2000▪▪This icon denotes a clinically relevant abstract Background:Over the past 20 years, allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) has been increasingly performed with peripheral blood stem cells (PB) and gained benefit from better HLA-typing. Similar long-term survival has been suggested after HLA-matched related and unrelated donor HCT. Till now, the optimal strategy for donor selection is still controversial. We evaluated the impact of donor type (10/10 HLA-matched unrelated (MUD) vs. matched related (MRD)) and other donor traits on long term outcomes of patients with hematologic malignancies after PB HCT. Patients and Methods:We analyzed outcomes of 442 consecutive patients with hematologic malignancies who were transplanted with PB either from MUD (n= 164) or MRD (n=278) at our center from 01/2000 to 12/2010. Median patient age was 48 years (range 7–68). Diseases included 122 acute myelogenous leukemias, 62 non-Hodgkin lymphomas, 60 myelodysplastic syndromes, 57 multiple myelomas, 40 acute lymphoblastic leukemias, 37 myeloproliferative disorders, 29 Hodgkin diseases, 20 chronic myeloid leukemias and 15 chronic lymphocytic leukemias. Two-third of patients underwent HCT following reduced intensity conditioning. Graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis consisted mostly in cyclosporine plus MMF or methotrexate. ATG was used in 19% of HCT. We assessed the impact of donor factors (type, age, gender, CMV serologic status and ABO group) on chronic GVHD (cGVHD), relapse, non relapse mortality (NRM) and overall survival (OS). Concerning donor age, as the upper age limit for voluntary PB donation was usually 60 years, we completed our analysis by performing 3 groups according to donor type and age (MUD, MRD<60y and MRD≥60y) and evaluated their influence on outcomes. Donors:Median donor age was 40 years (range 18–72). Most young donors were MUD (<30y: 70%) while older were mainly MRD (≥50y: 98%). Thirty-six patients were transplanted with MRD≥60y. The proportion of female donors was 42% and 113 HCT were performed from female donor to male recipient. Half of patients were transplanted from CMV seronegative donors. Donor/recipient pairs (D/R) were CMV status mismatched in 38% of cases. D/R were ABO matched, minor and major mismatched in 57%, 19% and 24% of cases. Considering donor type, MUD and MRD HCT were balanced for patient age, disease risk and conditioning. MUD received ATG more frequently than MRD (29% MUD vs. 14% MRD [10% MRD<60y and 25% MRD≥60y], P <.0001). Results:The median follow-up (FU) was 36 months (range 2–133) and 25% of patients had a FU of at least 60 months. The cumulative incidence (CIf) of cGVHD at 2 years was 58%. In multivariate analysis, sex mismatch (female > male) increased risk of cGVHD (HR: 1.41 [95% CI 1.05–1.88], P=.02) while MRD≥60y resulted in lower risk (HR: 0.48 [0.25–0.94], P=.031). Donor type by itself did not impact on cGVHD (58% with MRD and 59% with MUD). At 5 years, the CIf of relapse was 34% and was higher with MRD than MUD (39% vs. 24%, P=.038). Adjusted for disease risk, conditioning and infused cells count, only MRD≥60y resulted in significant higher risk of relapse than MUD (HR 2.41[1.26–4.62], P=.008) while MRD <60y had similar risk. The 5 years NRM was 26%. MUD vs. MRD was associated with higher NRM (HR: 1.84 [1.20–2.83], P=.005). Adjusted for recipient age, conditioning, and infused cells count, only MRD<60y were associated with lower risk of NRM than MUD (0.55 [0.35 to 0.86], P=.008) while MRD≥60y had similar NRM. OS was 46% at 5 years and was similar with MUD and MRD. Considering age, MRD≥60y appeared to have notable low OS at 5 years (6%, SE 6%). Adjusted for recipient age, disease risk and infused cells count, HCT from MRD≥60y was associated with higher risk of late (≥18 months) mortality (HR: 4.44 [1.53–12.9], P=.006) than MUD (Fig. 1). Conclusion:Donor/recipient gender parity, donor type and age appeared as significant predictive factors of long term outcomes after HLA-matched PB HCT. Nor donor CMV status nor ABO group seemed to impact on outcomes in our cohort. The selection of a sex mismatched donor (female>male) was associated with significant higher risk of cGVHD. Using PB as graft source, HLA 10/10 MUD provided higher NRM but better disease control and similar OS than MRD. Having combined donor type and age, we observed notable poor outcome (high relapse rate and low OS) for patients transplanted with MRD≥60y in our cohort. Given those results, one may question HCT with old MRD when a younger MUD is available. [Display omitted] Disclosures:No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

AS-177 Predictive Factors of Long-term Outcomes after Crush Technique for Bifurcation Coronary Lesions

AS-177 Predictive Factors of Long-term Outcomes after Crush Technique for Bifurcation Coronary Lesions

TCT-314: Predictive Factors of Long-term Outcomes after Crush Technique for Bifurcation Coronary Lesions

TCT-314: Predictive Factors of Long-term Outcomes after Crush Technique for Bifurcation Coronary Lesions

MRI Predictive Factors for Long-Term Outcomes of Low Rectal Tumours

Low rectal cancers have poor outcomes. It has been suggested that low tumours are biologically more aggressive and tend to be more locally advanced at presentation. Pre-operative identification of prognostic factors will enable use of selective neoadjuvant therapies and possibly increase sphincter-sparing rates where oncologically safe. A subset of 101 patients with low rectal cancer (within 5 cm of the anal verge) in a multicentre trial were studied. MRI images were reviewed by a senior radiologist, blinded to outcome. MRI-predicted tumour spread and MRI tumour regression grade (TRG) were analysed for 5-year recurrence and survival rates using a Cox regression model. On univariate analysis, advanced MRI low rectal tumour stage correlated with greater incidence of recurrence (p=0.013) and death (p=0.029) compared with earlier stage tumours. Good MRI TRG score (good response to pre-operative therapy) correlated with significantly reduced tumour recurrence rates (p=0.008) and increased survival (p=0.008) versus the poor MRI TRG score group. On multivariate analysis, good MRI TRG score was associated with reduced recurrence (p=0.003) but not survival rates. This study confirms that MRI can be used to predict patients at increased risk of recurrence following surgery in low rectal cancer. This information can be used to direct pre-operative therapies and plan operative strategies. This is the first study to confirm the association between MRI TRG and long-term outcome. Poor response to neoadjuvant therapy can be used to plan use of further therapies prior to surgery to attempt to improve outcome.

Prospective assessment of systemic therapy followed by surgical removal of metastases in selected patients with renal cell carcinoma

To prospectively establish objective selection criteria for metastasectomy in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC). Between 1991 and 1999, 38 patients with mRCC with responsive or stable disease after initial systemic therapy, and with potentially resectable disease, were enrolled. Patients had a metastasectomy with curative intent and received consolidative adjuvant systemic therapy. Of the patients enrolled, 79% had stable disease after initial systemic therapy and 21% had a partial or complete response. Most (84%) had metastasectomy of one organ site. There was surgically no evidence of disease (sNED) in 76%. Operative morbidity and mortality were acceptable and 90% of the patients received adjuvant systemic therapy. The median (95% confidence interval) survival was 4.7 (3.0-7.8) years, and the median time to progression was 1.8 (0.8-3.1) years. Eight of 38 patients (21%) remained free of disease by the end of the study. Significant predictors of outcome were lack of sNED after metastasectomy, and the presence of pulmonary metastases. The median overall survival for those who had sNED was 5.6 years, vs 1.4 years for those who did not (P < 0.001). Metastasectomy in patients with mRCC not progressing after systemic therapy is feasible, with acceptable morbidity. Predictive factors for long-term outcome include pulmonary metastases and sNED. Future work evaluating treatments that can convert patients into surgical candidates will increase the cure rate of patients with mRCC.

Perioperative Complications of Liver Resection in the Elderly with Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Comparison with Younger Patients

Liver resection surgery in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma is a high-risk procedure with an in-hospital mortality rate around 5%. Patient age and volume of blood loss were found to be independent predictive factors of long-term outcomes in previous studies. We sought to clarify the age-related differences in the perioperative complications during the whole admission for liver resection surgery. This retrospective study included 210 patients scheduled for elective liver resection from July 2006 to July 2008. The characteristics of the patients, intraoperative events, and postoperative complications were retrieved from medical charts, anesthesia records stored in a computer database, and the quality assurance system in our department. The patients were divided into two groups: Group A, aged 60 years or older ( n = 91); and Group B, aged younger than 60 years ( n = 119). Postoperative complications and intraoperative parameters were compared using the Student's t test for continuous data, and χ 2 test for categorical data. Correlations of age with blood loss, operation time, urine output, length of intensive care unit stay, total admission time, and intubation time were examined with the Pearson's correlation. Analysis of variance was used to investigate the endotracheal intubation time with different postoperative pain control methods. No differences in intraoperative blood loss, total operation time, urine output during surgery, in-hospital death, difficulty of operation, and incidence of massive blood loss and oliguria were found between the two groups. The length of intensive care unit stay and total admission time were significantly longer in the elderly group ( p = 0.04 and 0.01, respectively). There was a higher incidence of postoperative respiratory complications in the elderly as revealed by a longer intubation time in Group A than in Group B ( p = 0.03). In contrast to some surgeries for emergency conditions such as long bone fracture or acute abdomen, the perioperative complications in the elderly receiving elective liver resection surgery did not differ markedly from those of younger patients. However, elderly patients would benefit even more if comprehensive postoperative care or newly improved therapies can be provided to lessen the incidence of perioperative respiratory complications.

Predictive factors for long-term outcome of anterior cervical decompression and fusion: a multivariate data analysis

We conducted a prospective randomized study to investigate predictive factors for short- and long-term outcome of anterior cervical decompression and fusion (ACDF) as measured by current pain intensity on the Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) and by disability using the Neck Disability Index (NDI). Current understanding about how preoperative and short-term outcome data predict long-term outcome is sparse, and there are few studies involving analysis of short-term follow-up using multivariate approaches with quantification of the relative importance of each variable studied. A total of 95 patients were randomly allocated for ACDF with the cervical intervertebral fusion cage or the Cloward procedure. The mean follow-up time was 19 months (range 12-24) for short-term follow-up and 76 months (range 56-94 months) for long-term. Background factors, radiologically detected findings, physiological measurements, treatment type, pain, and disability were used as potential predictors. Multivariate statistical analysis by projection to latent structures was used to investigate predictors of importance for short- and long-term outcome of ACDF. A "preoperative" low disability and pain intensity, non-smoking status, male sex, good hand strength, and an active range of motion (AROM) in the neck were significant predictors for good short- and long-term outcomes. The short-term outcome data were better at predicting long-term outcome than were baseline data. Radiologically detected findings and surgical technique used were mainly insignificant as predictors. We suggest that the inclusion criteria for ACDF should be based on a bio-psycho-social model including NDI. NDI may also be regarded as an important outcome measurement in evaluation of ACDF.

Angioplastie fémorale superficielle : résultats à long terme, facteurs initiaux de bon pronostic: À propos de 101 patients

Objective To evaluate immediate results, clinical improvement, long-term patency and predictive factors of long-term outcome after superficial femoral artery percutaneous angioplasty. Patients and Methods Restrospective monocentric study of 101 patients (142 lesions: 105 stenoses and 37 occlusions) technical results, long-term patency (19 months), and clinical improvement (27,5 months) were analyzed. A multifactorial analysis was performed. Results Technical success was obtained in 99%, complications and mortality rates were respectively 3% and 2%. At the end of follow-up, 55 patients were clinically improved (20 lost to follow-up), and femoral artery remained patent in 62 patients (10 to follow-up). Statistical analyses revealed 8 significant predictive factors of a good outcome (P < 0.05): female gender, non-diabetic, at least one patent artery below the knee, AHA classification < 2, no stent, treatment of an occlusion, number of dilatations < 3, treatment by statins for hypercholesterolemia. Conclusion Femoral superficial artery angioplasty is usually achieved with low complication rate. We found eight factors predictive of long-term outcome, to keep in mind when indications are discussed. (J Mal Vasc 2005; 30: 291-5)

5:58 121. Adult tethered cord syndrome: review of a series of 60 patients with analysis of predictive factors of long-term outcomes

BACKGROUND CONTEXT: Adult tethered cord syndrome (TCS) continues to pose a significant diagnostic and management challenge. To date, relatively few large clinical studies have been reported. These have shown that neurosurgical intervention may be associated with highly variable clinical outcomes. Prognostic factors remain poorly understood.