Prediction Of Quantitative Traits Research Articles

A Multiple-Trait Bayesian Lasso for Genome-Enabled Analysis and Prediction of Complex Traits.

A multiple-trait Bayesian LASSO (MBL) for genome-based analysis and prediction of quantitative traits is presented and applied to two real data sets. The data-generating model is a multivariate linear Bayesian regression on possibly a huge number of molecular markers, and with a Gaussian residual distribution posed. Each (one per marker) of the vectors of regression coefficients (T: number of traits) is assigned the same T−variate Laplace prior distribution, with a null mean vector and unknown scale matrix Σ. The multivariate prior reduces to that of the standard univariate Bayesian LASSO when The covariance matrix of the residual distribution is assigned a multivariate Jeffreys prior, and Σ is given an inverse-Wishart prior. The unknown quantities in the model are learned using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme constructed using a scale-mixture of normal distributions representation. MBL is demonstrated in a bivariate context employing two publicly available data sets using a bivariate genomic best linear unbiased prediction model (GBLUP) for benchmarking results. The first data set is one where wheat grain yields in two different environments are treated as distinct traits. The second data set comes from genotyped Pinus trees, with each individual measured for two traits: rust bin and gall volume. In MBL, the bivariate marker effects are shrunk differentially, i.e., “short” vectors are more strongly shrunk toward the origin than in GBLUP; conversely, “long” vectors are shrunk less. A predictive comparison was carried out as well in wheat, where the comparators of MBL were bivariate GBLUP and bivariate Bayes Cπ—a variable selection procedure. A training-testing layout was used, with 100 random reconstructions of training and testing sets. For the wheat data, all methods produced similar predictions. In Pinus, MBL gave better predictions that either a Bayesian bivariate GBLUP or the single trait Bayesian LASSO. MBL has been implemented in the Julia language package JWAS, and is now available for the scientific community to explore with different traits, species, and environments. It is well known that there is no universally best prediction machine, and MBL represents a new resource in the armamentarium for genome-enabled analysis and prediction of complex traits.

Prediction of Quantitative Traits Using Common Genetic Variants: Application to Body Mass Index.

With the success of the genome-wide association studies (GWASs), many candidate loci for complex human diseases have been reported in the GWAS catalog. Recently, many disease prediction models based on penalized regression or statistical learning methods were proposed using candidate causal variants from significant single-nucleotide polymorphisms of GWASs. However, there have been only a few systematic studies comparing existing methods. In this study, we first constructed risk prediction models, such as stepwise linear regression (SLR), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and Elastic-Net (EN), using a GWAS chip and GWAS catalog. We then compared the prediction accuracy by calculating the mean square error (MSE) value on data from the Korea Association Resource (KARE) with body mass index. Our results show that SLR provides a smaller MSE value than the other methods, while the numbers of selected variables in each model were similar.

Effect of allele frequencies, effect sizes and number of markers on prediction of quantitative traits in chickens

The objective was to assess goodness of fit and predictive ability of subsets of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers constructed based on minor allele frequency (MAF), effect sizes and varying marker density. Target traits were body weight (BW), ultrasound measurement of breast muscle (BM) and hen house egg production (HHP) in broiler chickens. We used a 600K Affymetrix platform with 1352 birds genotyped. The prediction method was genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) with 354564 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) used to derive a genomic relationship matrix (G). Predictive ability was assessed as the correlation between predicted genomic values and corrected phenotypes from a threefold cross-validation. Predictive ability was 0.27±0.002 for BW, 0.33±0.001 for BM and 0.20±0.002 for HHP. For the three traits studied, predictive ability decreased when SNPs with a higher MAF were used to construct G. Selection of the 20% SNPs with the largest absolute effect sizes induced a predictive ability equal to that from fitting all markers together. When density of markers increased from 5K to 20K, predictive ability enhanced slightly. These results provide evidence that designing a low-density chip using low-frequency markers with large effect sizes may be useful for commercial usage.

An assessment of linkage disequilibrium in Holstein cattle using a Bayesian network

Linkage disequilibrium (LD) is defined as a non-random association of the distributions of alleles at different loci within a population. This association between loci is valuable in prediction of quantitative traits in animals and plants and in genome-wide association studies. A question that arises is whether standard metrics such as D' and r(2) reflect complex associations in a genetic system properly. It seems reasonable to take the view that loci associate and interact together as a system or network, as opposed to in a simple pairwise manner. We used a Bayesian network (BN) as a representation of choice for an LD network. A BN is a graphical depiction of a probability distribution and can represent sets of conditional independencies. Moreover, it provides a visual display of the joint distribution of the set of random variables in question. The usefulness of BN for linkage disequilibrium was explored and illustrated using genetic marker loci found to have the strongest effects on milk protein in Holstein cattle based on three strategies for ranking marker effect estimates: posterior means, standardized posterior means and additive genetic variance. Two different algorithms, Tabu search (a local score-based algorithm) and incremental association Markov blanket (a constraint-based algorithm), coupled with the chi-square test, were used for learning the structure of the BN and were compared with the reference r(2) metric represented as an LD heat map. The BN captured several genetic markers associated as clusters, implying that markers are inter-related in a complicated manner. Further, the BN detected conditionally dependent markers. The results confirm that LD relationships are of a multivariate nature and that r(2) gives an incomplete description and understanding of LD. Use of an LD Bayesian network enables inferring associations between loci in a systems framework and provides a more accurate picture of LD than that resulting from the use of pairwise metrics.