Prediction Of Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation Research Articles

A Systematic Review of Ongoing Registered Research Studies on Post-Operative Atrial Fibrillation after Cardiac Surgery.

Background/Objectives: New-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) after cardiac surgery is associated with patient-important outcomes. Uncertainty persists regarding its prevention, detection, and management. This review seeks to identify, compile, and describe ongoing registered research studies involving patients with or at risk for post-operative AF (POAF) after cardiac surgery. Methods: We searched clinical trial registries in January 2023 for studies focusing on POAF prediction, prevention, detection, or management. We extracted data from each record and performed descriptive analyses. Results: In total, 121 studies met the eligibility criteria, including 82 randomized trials. Prevention studies are the most common (n = 77, 63.6%), followed by prediction (n = 21, 17.4%), management (n = 16, 13.2%), and detection studies (n = 7, 5.8%). POAF after cardiac surgery is an area of active research. Conclusions: There are many ongoing randomized prevention studies. However, two major clinical gaps persist; future randomized trials should compare rate and rhythm control in patients who develop POAF, and long-term follow-up studies should investigate strategies to monitor for AF recurrence in patients with POAF.

Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation Prediction by Left Atrial Size in Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting and Five-Year Survival Outcome.

Background: Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation (POAF) is a common complication in cardiac surgery. Despite its multifactorial origin, the left atrial (LA) size is closely linked to POAF, raising the question of a valid cut-off value and its impact on the long-term outcome. Methods: Patients without a history of AF who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting between 2014 and 2016 were selected for this retrospective study. LA size was preoperatively assessed using the left atrial anterior-posterior diameter (LAAPd). Correlation and logistic regression analyses were performed, following a receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Propensity score matching (PSM) was applied to ensure group comparability, followed by a comparison analysis regarding the primary endpoint of POAF and the secondary endpoints of all-cause mortality and stroke during a five-year follow-up. Results: A total of 933 patients were enrolled in the study eventually revealing a significant correlation between LAAPd and POAF (cor = 0.09, p < 0.01). A cut-off point of 38.5 mm was identified, resulting in groups with 366 patients each after PSM. Overall, patients with a dilated LA presented a significantly higher rate of POAF (22.3% vs. 30.4%, p = 0.02). In a five-year follow-up, a slightly higher rate of all-cause mortality (9.8% vs. 13.7%, HR 1.4 [0.92-2.29], p = 0.10) was observed, but there was no difference in the occurrence of strokes (3.6% vs. 3.3%, p = 0.87). Conclusions: An LAAPd of >38.5 mm was found to be an independent predictor of POAF after coronary artery bypass grafting and resulted in a non-significant tendency towards a worse outcome regarding all-cause mortality in a five-year follow-up.

Risk Scores for Prediction of Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation After Cardiac Surgery: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a common complication after cardiac surgery and is associated with poor clinical outcomes. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the performance of risk scores to predict POAF in cardiac surgery patients. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane CENTRAL for studies that developed/evaluated a POAF risk prediction model. Pairs of reviewers independently screened studies and extracted data. We pooled area under the receiver operating curves (AUCs), sensitivity and specificity, and adjusted odds ratios from multivariable regression analyses using the generic inverse variance method and random effects models. Forty-three studies (n=63,847) were included in the quantitative synthesis. Most scores were originally developed for other purposes but evaluated for predicting POAF. Pooled AUC revealed moderate POAF discrimination for the EuroSCORE II (AUC 0.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54 to 0.65), Society of Thoracic Surgeons (AUC 0.60, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.63), EuroSCORE (AUC 0.63, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.68), CHADS2 (AUC 0.66, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.75), POAF Score (AUC 0.66, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.68), HATCH (AUC 0.67, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.75), CHA2DS2-VASc (AUC 0.68, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.75) and SYNTAX scores (AUC 0.74, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.78). Pooled analyses at specific cutoffs of the CHA2DS2-VASc, CHADS2, HATCH, and POAF scores demonstrated moderate-to-high sensitivity (range 46% to 87%) and low-to-moderate specificity (range 31% to 70%) for POAF prediction. In conclusion, existing clinical risk scores offer at best moderate prediction for POAF after cardiac surgery. Better models are needed to guide POAF risk stratification in cardiac surgery patients.

Prediction of post-operative atrial fibrillation in patients after cardiac surgery using heart rate variability

PurposePost-operative atrial fibrillation (PoAF) occurs in ~ 30% of patients after cardiac surgery. The etiology of PoAF is complex, but a disbalance in autonomic systems plays an important role. The goal of this study was to assess whether pre-operative heart rate variability analysis can predict the risk of PoAF.MethodsPatients without a history of AF with an indication for cardiac surgery were included. Two-hour ECG recordings one day before surgery was used for the HRV analysis. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression, including all HRV parameters, their combination, and clinical variables, were calculated to find the best predictive model for post-operative AF.ResultsOne hundred and thirty-seven patients (33 women) were enrolled in the study. PoAF occurred in 48 patients (35%, AF group); the remaining 89 patients were in the NoAF group. AF patients were significantly older (69.1 ± 8.6 vs. 63.4 ± 10.5 yrs., p = 0.002), and had higher CHA2DS2-VASc score (3 ± 1.4 vs. 2.5 ± 1.3, p = 0.01). In the multivariate regression model, parameters independently associated with higher risk of AF were pNN50, TINN, absolute power VLF, LF and HF, total power, SD2, and the Porta index. A combination of clinical variables with HRV parameters in the ROC analysis achieved an AUC of 0.86, a sensitivity of 0.95, and a specificity of 0.57 and was more effective in PoAF prediction than a combination of clinical variables alone.ConclusionA combination of several HRV parameters is helpful in predicting the risk of PoAF. Attenuation of heart rate variability increases the risk for PoAF.

Prediction of postoperative atrial fibrillation with postoperative epicardial electrograms

Objectives. New-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a common complication after cardiac surgery. The arrhythmia often entails a longer hospital stay, greater risk of other complications, and higher mortality both short- and long-term. An investigation of the use of early atrial electrograms in predicting POAF in cardiac surgery was performed. Design. In this prospective observational study, a total of 99 consecutive adult patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting, valve surgery or both were included. On the first postoperative morning, standard 12-lead electrograms (ECG), unipolar atrial electrograms (aEG), and vital values were recorded. The outcome was new-onset POAF within one month postoperatively. Results. Three multivariable prediction models for POAF were formed using measurements derived from the ECG, aEG, and patient characteristics. Age, body mass index, and two unipolar electrogram measurements quantifying local activation time and fractionation were strongly associated with the outcome POAF. The performance of the POAF prediction models was assessed through receiver operating curve characteristics with cross-validation, and discrimination using the leave-one-out-method to internally validate the models. The cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was improved in a prediction model using atrial-derived electrogram variables (AUC 0.796, 95% CI 0.698–0.894), compared with previous ECG and clinical models (AUC 0.716, 95% CI 0.606–0.826 and AUC 0.718, 95% CI 0.613–0.822, respectively). Conclusions. This study found that easily obtainable measurements from atrial electrograms may be helpful in identifying patients at risk of POAF in cardiac surgery.

Prediction of postoperative atrial fibrillation with the systemic immune-inflammation index in patients undergoing cardiac surgery using cardiopulmonary bypass: a retrospective, single-center study.

The systemic immune-inflammation index (SII, platelet count × neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio) is a novel parameter for systemic inflammation. Cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) is associated with systemic inflammatory responses. This retrospective study aimed to determine whether SII could predict postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after cardiac surgery using CPB. Patients who underwent cardiac surgery using CPB between January 2020 and July 2021 were included. The primary outcome was POAF incidence within 7days. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to evaluate SII ability in predicting POAF. Multivariable analysis was used to estimate the independent association between SII and POAF development. The study included 212 patients, and 90 (43%) developed POAF. The preoperative SII cutoff of 545 × 109/L predicted a poor outcome with 71% sensitivity and 81% specificity. The area under the ROC curve was 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.73-0.86). Multivariable analysis showed that SII ≥ 545 × 109/L was associated with the development of POAF (odds ratio 10.2; 95% CI 5.1-20.2, P < 0.001). SII predicted POAF with a curve of 0.91 (95% CI 0.82-1.00) in patients with coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG); the corresponding value in patients without CABG was 0.75 (95% CI 0.67-0.83). Preoperative SII may be a useful prognostic biomarker for POAF in patients undergoing cardiac surgery using CPB. Moreover, preoperative SII may play an important role in predicting POAF in patients undergoing CABG.

DNA Methylation-Based Prediction of Post-operative Atrial Fibrillation.

BackgroundAtrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia and post-operative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a major healthcare burden, contributing to an increased risk of stroke, kidney failure, heart attack and death. Genetic studies have identified associations with AF, but no molecular diagnostic exists to predict POAF based on pre-operative measurements. Such a tool would be of great value for perioperative planning to improve patient care and reduce healthcare costs. In this pilot study of epigenetic precision medicine in the perioperative period, we carried out bisulfite sequencing to measure DNA methylation status in blood collected from patients prior to cardiac surgery to identify biosignatures of POAF.MethodsWe enrolled 221 patients undergoing cardiac surgery in this prospective observational study. DNA methylation measurements were obtained from blood samples drawn from awake patients prior to surgery. After controlling for clinical and methylation covariates, we analyzed DNA methylation loci in the discovery cohort of 110 patients for association with POAF. We also constructed predictive models for POAF using clinical and DNA methylation data. We subsequently performed targeted analyses of a separate cohort of 101 cardiac surgical patients to measure the methylation status solely of significant methylation loci in the discovery cohort.ResultsA total of 47 patients in the discovery cohort (42.7%) and 43 patients in the validation cohort (42.6%) developed POAF. We identified 12 CpGs that were statistically significant in the discovery cohort after correcting for multiple hypothesis testing. Of these sites, 6 were amenable to targeted bisulfite sequencing and chr16:24640902 was statistically significant in the validation cohort. In addition, the methylation POAF prediction model had an AUC of 0.79 in the validation cohort.ConclusionsWe have identified DNA methylation biomarkers that can predict future occurrence of POAF associated with cardiac surgery. This research demonstrates the use of precision medicine to develop models combining epigenomic and clinical data to predict disease.

Circulating exosome-derived miR-122-5p is a novel biomarker for prediction of postoperative atrial fibrillation.

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a frequent complication associated with increased periprocedural mortality and morbidity after cardiac surgery. Our study aimed to identify the difference in exosomal miRNA and further explore its role in the diagnosis of POAF. First, the differentially expressed miRNAs (DEMs) were obtained by high-throughput RNA sequencing. Second, the DEMs target genes were put into gene ontology (GO) and KEGG pathway analysis. Third, real-time quantification PCR (RT-qPCR) was used to verify the DEMs. Finally, we revealed 23 DEMs in POAF patients. Furthermore, analysis of gene function revealed that DEMs may affect atrial structure through many signaling pathways. We also found that miR-122-5p was up-regulated in POAF patients, but there are no significant changes in miR-191-5p, miR-181a-5p, miR-155-5p and miR-151a-5p. Our study revealed that exosomal miRNAs exert enormous potential in evaluating the severity or prognostic of POAF.

Role of fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF-23) in the prediction of postoperative atrial fibrillation after coronary artery bypass surgery.

Fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF-23) is a bone-derived hormone which had shown a significant association with the occurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with chronic kidney disease. We hypothesized that FGF-23 could be a very useful predictive biomarker for atrial remodeling and in turn for postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). We also looked at the correlation of cardiac remodeling in right atrial biopsy and its correlation with POAF and with the FGF-23 level. This study was a single-center cross-sectional observational study. All the patients who were planned for CABG with no prior history of AF were included in the study. All the patients were tested for preoperative serum FGF-23 level. During CABG, biopsy specimen of the right atrial appendage was sent for histopathology evaluation. All patients were monitored for POAF until discharge from the hospital. This study involved 60 patients who underwent elective CABG. Multivariate analysis revealed a significant association between preoperative FGF-23 levels with the occurrence of POAF (p < 0.001). The area under the curve of FGF-23 was 0.894 with a sensitivity of 92.3% and specificity of 87.23%. The cut-off value for serum FGF-23 levels was found to be 6.50ng/ml. Analysis of biopsy specimens revealed that the presence of hypertrophic myocytes had a significant association with the occurrence of POAF/POAE and with FGF-23. Preoperative FGF-23 levels can predict the incidence of POAF in post-CABG patients. Histopathologically, the presence of hypertrophic myocytes correlated well with the occurrence of POAF.

Strain Echocardiography to Predict Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation.

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) complicates 15% to 40% of cardiovascular surgeries. Its incidence progressively increases with aging, reaching 50% in octogenarians. This arrhythmia is usually transient but it increases the risk of embolic stroke, prolonged hospital stay, and cardiovascular mortality. Though many pathophysiological mechanisms are known, POAF prediction is still a hot topic of discussion. Doppler echocardiogram and, lately, strain echocardiography have shown significant capacity to predict POAF. Alterations in oxidative stress, calcium handling, mitochondrial dysfunction, inflammation, fibrosis, and tissue aging are among the mechanisms that predispose patients to the perfect “atrial storm”. Manifestations of these mechanisms have been related to enlarged atria and impaired function, which can be detected prior to surgery. Specific alterations in the atrial reservoir and pump function, as well as atrial dyssynchrony determined by echocardiographic atrial strain, can predict POAF and help to shed light on which patients could benefit from preventive therapy.

Predicting Post-operative Atrial Fibrillation in Cardiac Surgery – The Added Value of Echocardiography

INTRODUCTION: Post-operative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a frequent rhythmic complication in cardiac surgery with the potential to cause sudden hemodynamic instability and catastrophic thromboembolic complications. Despite vast scientific research, it is still hard to predict and prevents its occurrence. AIM: The aim of this study was to determine whether selected pre-operative and intraoperative echocardiographic variables would be of added value in POAF prediction. МАTERIAL AND METHODS: This prospective observational follow-up study included 178 cardiac surgery patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft intervention. Demographic as well as echocardiographic variables of interest were examined to detect significant independent predictors for POAF. RESULTS: POAF was detected in 90 (50.56%) patients versus 88 (49.44%) patients without POAF. Patients who developed POAF were significantly older and burdened with multiple comorbidities. In multiple regression analysis pre-operative echocardiographic variables-diastolic dysfunctions, enlarged left atrial (LA) volume indexed for body surface area, mitral annular calcification, and secondary mitral regurgitation were predictive of POAF. LA appendage flow velocity obtained by intraoperative transesophageal echocardiography was also a significant intraoperative predictor for POAF. CONCLUSION: The results of this study confirmed that two-dimensional echocardiography is a valuable diagnostic and prognostic tool in relation to POAF. The addition of the aforementioned echocardiographic independent predictors to traditional demographic variables could be a solid foundation of a new predictive model for POAF.

Abstract 12251: Speckle Tracking Echocardiography Changes in Patients Who Developed Atrial Fibrillation Post Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting

Introduction: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is seen in around 30% of patients after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). It is associated with increased risk for stroke, heart failure, in-hospital mortality and hospital readmission. Prediction of POAF could help institute preventive and early treatment strategies. Methods: We queried PubMed, Ovid Medline, and Cochrane databases for key words ‘atrial speckle tracking” and/or “reservoir strain” and/or “post-operative atrial fibrillation”. We included studies that included patients in normal sinus rhythm before CABG and compared reservoir strain and/or peak atrial longitudinal strain (PALS) between patients who developed POAF and those who did not. Continuous data (LA strain) was pooled as a mean difference comparing patients who developed POAF versus patients who did not. We used the inverse variance method with the Restricted Maximum likelihood estimator of Tau2, for random effect analysis. We used Q and I2 statistics to calculate the heterogeneity. Results: Six observational studies met our inclusion criteria with a total of 338 patients, of which 91 patients developed POAF. Left atrial reservoir strain was significantly reduced in patients who developed POAF as compared with those who did not develop POAF, mean difference(MD), 95% confidence interval(CI): -13.97(-15.00-12.93), I2= 53%, , P &lt;0.00001, Figure 1. Conclusions: Atrial reservoir strain was significantly reduced in patients who developed POAF as compared to those who remained in sinus rhythm. Atrial reservoir strain can be potentially used to identify patients at risk of POAF. More data is needed for further validation of this finding. .

Echocardiographic Predictors of Atrial Fibrillation after Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting

Abstract Background Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) complicates 20–40% of cardiac surgical procedures and 10–20% of non-cardiac thoracic operations. Typical features include onset at 2–4 days postoperatively, episodes that are often fleeting and a self-limited time course. Associated adverse consequences of POAF include hemodynamic instability, increased risk of stroke, lengthened hospital and intensive care unit stays and greater costs (Dobrev et al., 2019). Aim The aim of this work is to detect the echo-cardio graphic parameters for prediction of post-operative atrial fibrillation in patients with ischemic heart disease undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass graft. Methods One hundred patients with multivessel disease for CABG were prospectively enrolled; all of them were in sinus rhythm at the moment of enrollment. LA maximal volume, LV ejection fraction, LVESV &amp;LVEDV and TDI were assessed. Moreover, LA strain and Left Ventricular Global Longitudinal Strain % were analyzed by speckle tracking technique. Patients were followed up for 1 week after surgery in order to identify occurrence of atrial fibrillation. Results We found a statistically significant difference between patients undergoing CABG who are older in age with mean ± SD 64.455 ± 6.254 in group I (AF) vs. 54.577 ± 6.710 in group II with p value &amp;lt;0.001*, we found also that patients undergoing CABG with POAF (group I) 50 % of them had left main diseases vs. 23% in group II (NSR) with other lesions (RCA&amp;LCX), p value = 0.014*. Conclusions There is no significant difference between the two groups regarding conventional echo parameters, TDI &amp; by speckle tracking technique (LA strain &amp; LVGLS %). However, patients who developed POAF were older, &amp; left main lesions are more likely to have left main lesions.

Utility of the CHA2DS2-VASc Score in Prediction of Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation After Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery

The authors aimed to investigate the role of CHA2DS2-VASc score and its components in prediction of postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after isolated coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. Retrospective cohort. Single-center university-affiliated tertiary cardiac center. A total of 2,981 consecutive patients who underwent isolated CABG between 2010 and 2012 were included. All patients underwent isolated CABG and were followed until discharge or in-hospital death. The primary outcome was the development of new-onset POAF during the hospital course. During hospitalization, continuous electrocardiogram monitoring was used to detect POAF episodes. New-onset POAF developed in 15.8% of patients following isolated CABG. Patients with POAF had significantly higher CHA2DS2-VASc scores than those without POAF (2.66 ± 1.51 v 2.12 ± 1.36, p < 0.001). After adjustment for potential confounders, CHA2DS2-VASc score was significantly associated with POAF (odds ratio [OR]: 1.295, 95% CI: 1.205-1.391). However, further analyses showed that this effect was restricted to patients with a CHA2DS2-VASc score of ≥2 (OR: 1.813, 95% CI: 1.220-2.694). In multivariate analysis of the CHA2DS2-VASc components, age ≥75 (OR: 3.737, 95% CI: 2.702-5.168), age 65 to 74 (OR: 2.126, 1.701-2.658), hypertension (OR: 1.310, 95% CI: 1.051-1.633), and cerebrovascular accident (OR: 1.807, 95% CI: 1.197-2.726) were independent predictors of POAF. However, the association between POAF and female sex, diabetes mellitus, congestive heart failure, and vascular disease was not statistically significant. CHA2DS2-VASc score is a useful tool for the prediction of POAF after isolated CABG. However, the risk should be interpreted cautiously, since the risk score's promising effect relies on only several of its components.

Machine Learning Outperforms Existing Clinical Scoring Tools in the Prediction of Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation During Intensive Care Unit Admission After Cardiac Surgery

Using the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database, we compared the performance of machine learning (ML) to the to the established gold standard scoring tool (POAF Score) in predicting postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) during intensive care unit (ICU) admission after cardiac surgery. Random forest classifier (RF), decision tree classifier (DT), logistic regression (LR), K neighbours classifier (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), and gradient boosted machine (GBM) were compared to the POAF Score. Cross-validation was used to assess the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity of ML models. POAF Score performance confidence intervals were generated using 1,000 bootstraps. Risk profiles for GBM were generated using Shapley additive values. A total of 6,349 ICU admissions encompassing 6,040 patients were included. POAF occurred in 1,364 of the 6,349 admissions (21.5%). For predicting POAF during ICU admission after cardiac surgery, GBM, LR, RF, KNN, SVM and DT achieved an AUC of 0.74 (0.71-0.77), 0.73 (0.71-0.75), 0.72 (0.69-0.75), 0.68 (0.67-0.69), 0.67 (0.66-0.68) and 0.59 (0.55-0.63) respectively. The POAF Score AUC was 0.63 (0.62-0.64). Shapley additive values analysis of GBM generated patient level explanations for each prediction. Machine learning models based on readily available preoperative data can outperform clinical scoring tools for predicting POAF during ICU admission after cardiac surgery. Explanatory models are shown to have potential in personalising POAF risk profiles for patients by illustrating probabilistic input variable contributions. Future research is required to evaluate the clinical utility and safety of implementing ML-driven tools for POAF prediction.

Efficiency of Thyroid Function Test in the Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation Following Open Heart Surgery.

To analyse the efficiency of thyroid function tests (thyroid stimulating hormone, thyroxine and tri-iodothyronine) on prediction of postoperative atrial fibrillation. Meta-analysis. Place of Study: Siyami Ersek Chest and Cardiovascular Surgery Education and Research Hospital, Istanbul, Turkey. Literature review was carried out in PubMed, Science Direct and Ovid Database. No date limitations was applied. Trials, which evaluated the preoperative levels of thyroid stimulating hormone, thyroxine and tri-iodothyronine in cardiac surgery patients, were included. Only the articles in English language were reviewed. We evaluated the results with fix or random effect models according to the presence of heterogeneity (I2 >25%). Five hundred and forty-seven articles were obtained after screening of databases. After checking over the titles and abstracts, five trials were included which covered 380 patients and complied with inclusion criteria. According to results of analysis, there was no significant relationship between postoperative atrial fibrillation and thyroid stimulating hormone (SMD: 0.38, 95%CI -0.46-1.23, p=0.375), and also thyroxine (SMD: 0.006, 95% CI -0.29-0.30, p=0.966). However, tri-iodothyronine (SMD: -1.06, 95% CI -2.08- -0.03, p=0.04) was correlated with development of atrial fibrillation. Heterogeneity was observed in three parameters (I2; for TSH: 92.45%, for T3: 93.08% and for T4: 31.78%). Preoperative levels of tri-iodothyronine was an effective parameter for predicting postoperative atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery, but there was a need of larger trials for eliminating heterogeneity for all of the parameters of thyroid function tests. Key Words: Cardiac surgery, Atrial fibrillation, Thyroid stimulating hormone, Thyroxine, Tri-iodothyronine.

Internal Validation of a Risk Score for Prediction of Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation after Cardiac Surgery

Abstract Background: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after cardiac surgery has great clinical and economic implications. Many attempts have been made to identify risk factors aiming at a better evaluation of prophylactic treatment strategies. Objective: To perform an internal validation of a risk score for POAF. Methods: A prospective cohort of 1,054 patients who underwent myocardial revascularization and/or valve surgery was included. The risk score model was developed in 448 patients, and its performance was tested in the remaining 606 patients. Variables with a significance level of 5% in the cohort were included and subjected to a multiple logistic regression model with backward selection. Performance statistics was performed using the c-statistic, the chi-square and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) goodness-of-fit, Pearson's correlation coefficient. Results: Four variables were considered predictors of outcome: age (≥ 70 years), mitral valve disease, the non-use or discontinuation of beta-blockers and a positive water balance (> 1,500 mL). The ROC curve was 0.76 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.72-0.79). The risk model showed a good ability according to the performance statistics - HL test x(2) = 0.93; p = 0.983 and r = 0.99 (Pearson's coefficient). There was an increase in the frequency of POAF with the increase of the score: very low risk = 0.0%; low risk = 3.9%; intermediate risk = 10.9%; and high risk = 60.0%; p < 0.0001. Conclusion: The predictive variables of POAF allowed us to construct a simplified risk score. This scoring system showed good accuracy and can be used in routine clinical practice.

The Validation of the ATRIA and CHA2DS2-Vasc Scores in Predicting Atrial Fibrillation after Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery.

Objective The aim of this study was to evaluate the value of CHA2DS2-VASc and Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation (ATRIA) risk scores for prediction of postoperative atrial fibrillation (AF) development in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) operation.Methods The population of this observational study consisted of 370 patients undergoing CABG operation. CHA2DS2-VASc and ATRIA risk scores were calculated for all patients and their association with postoperative AF (AF episode lasting > 5 min) were evaluated. Predictors of postoperative AF were determined by multiple logistic regression analysis.Results During follow-up, 110 patients (29.7%) developed postoperative AF. With multiple logistic regression analysis, risk factors for postoperative AF were determined: ATRIA risk score (odds ratio [OR] 1.23; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11-1.36; P<0.001), fasting glucose level (OR 1.006; 95% CI 1.004-1.009; P<0.001), and 24-hour drainage amount (OR 1.002; 95% CI; 1.001-1.004; P<0.001). Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses showed that CHA2DS2-VASc and ATRIA risk scores were significant predictors for new-onset AF (C-statistic 0.648; 95% CI 0.59-0.69; P<0.001; and C-statistic 0.664; 95% CI 0.61-0.71; P<0.001, respectively).Conclusion CHA2DS2-VASc and ATRIA risk scores predict new AF in patients undergoing CABG.

Prospective evaluation of the utility of CHA2DS2-VASc score in the prediction of postoperative atrial fibrillation after off-pump coronary artery bypass surgery - An observational study.

Introduction:Off-pump coronary artery bypass (OPCAB) surgery is associated with evasion of complications of cardiac bypass. The incidence of postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) may also be reduced because of less ischemia and inflammation.Aim:Prospective evaluation of utility of CHA2DS2-VASc score in the prediction of POAF after OPCAB surgery.Methodology:In this prospective, observational study, 99 patients who underwent elective isolated OPCAB surgery were included. Patients with pacemaker in situ, receiving antiarrhythmic drugs preoperatively, and preexisting atrial fibrillation were excluded. A detailed history taking and physical examination were done preoperatively and the CHA2DS2-VASc scores were calculated for each patient. They received a standard anesthetic including midazolam, fentanyl, propofol, vecuronium, and isoflurane. The number of grafts, inotrope usage, and blood product transfusion in the perioperative period were noted. Patients were followed up for 5 days after surgery for development of new onset POAF requiring treatment.Results:About 20 of the 99 patients developed POAF. POAF occurred most commonly on postoperative day 2. They were older, more likely diabetic, had preoperative diastolic dysfunction, and received blood products perioperatively. POAF group had higher mean CHA2DS2-VASc score (3.6 ± 0.821 vs. 2.11 ± 1.35) and had longer hospital stay (16.85 ± 8.61 vs. 12.6 ± 4.05 days) than no POAF group. The cutoff for CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3, which showed 90% sensitivity, 77.22% specificity, 50% positive predictive value, and 96.63% negative predictive value.Conclusions:CHA2DS2-VASc score is useful in predicting POAF after OPCAB surgery. Higher the CHA2DS2-VASc score, greater is the possibility of development of POAF.

Immediate Preoperative Transthoracic Echocardiography for the Prediction of Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation in High-Risk Cardiac Surgery

The present study aimed to validate the utility of bedside cardiac ultrasound to identify patients for the risk of postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF). A prospective cohort study of consecutive patients. Single-center tertiary referral center. After Institutional Review Board consent, 169 patients undergoing elective cardiac surgery were enrolled in the study. A preoperative transthoracic echocardiographic interrogation assessing diastolic function was performed. Measurements were assessed offline with experienced echocardiographers blinded to clinical outcomes. The primary outcome was POAF during the first 72 hours after surgery. A total of 169 patients completed the study, 44 of whom (26.0%) developed POAF, and 39 (25.2%) had diastolic dysfunction. Patients with POAF had a higher rate of postoperative heart failure, reintubation within 24 hours of surgery, and length of stay (p = 0.002, 0.01, and 0.0006, respectively). Predictors significant for POAF included increasing age, left atrial volume indexed to body surface area (LAVI), and diastolic dysfunction (p = 0.02, 0.0001, and 0.001, respectively). Multivariate spline regressions demonstrated a nonlinear correlation between increasing LAVI and risk of POAF. Left atrial volume can be assessed efficiently preoperatively to provide superior risk stratification over clinical factors and diastolic parameters alone for the prediction of POAF. Furthermore, the present study demonstrated that the cutoffs of chamber quantification currently used do not appropriately capture the increased risk of POAF. Thus, LAVI provides a simple measure to identify patients who are in need of targeted prophylaxis for POAF.