Pollution Prediction Research Articles

Prediction of Spatiotemporal Pollution of Soil Heavy Metal in Mining Areas Based on Grey Neural Network Algorithm

Prediction of Spatiotemporal Pollution of Soil Heavy Metal in Mining Areas Based on Grey Neural Network Algorithm

Assessment and prediction of noise pollution–induced health impacts in urban environment: a structural equation modeling (SEM)–based approach

Assessment and prediction of noise pollution–induced health impacts in urban environment: a structural equation modeling (SEM)–based approach

Modeling traffic pollutants in a street canyon by CFD: Idealized line sources versus multiple realistic car sources.

Idealized sources are commonly used to reproduce the traffic emission in street canyons in experimental and numerical investigations. However, it remains unclear whether idealized sources can accurately reproduce the pollutant dispersion compared to more realistic sources. The goal of this paper is to investigate the impact of idealized and realistic sources on traffic-induced pollutant concentration in a street canyon by numerical simulation with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). First, the scale-adaptive simulation (SAS) results of mean velocity and concentration are compared with wind-tunnel (WT) data for idealized line sources (ILS) and a satisfactory agreement is found between the SAS and WT results. Next, SAS are performed to investigate the impact on mean velocity and mean pollutant concentration of ILS versus multiple realistic car sources (MRCS) cases, designed to mimic a configuration of traffic jam-like conditions (i.e. rows of idling cars) in a street canyon. Different levels of geometrical simplifications of sources and total emission rates are considered. Although this research study focuses on these aforementioned specific set of conditions and conclusions relate solely to these circumstances, the SAS results show that the overall-averaged concentration associated with MRCS and the simplified source-geometry cases is about 1.18-6.22 times larger than that by ILS. Thus, ILS may be inadequate to reproduce the pollutant concentration in real scenarios. This study can contribute to enhancing the pollution prediction accuracy and reduce the potential risk of human exposure.

A systematic scrutiny of artificial intelligence-based air pollution prediction techniques, challenges, and viable solutions

Air is an essential human necessity, and inhaling filthy air poses a significant health risk. One of the most severe hazards to people’s health is air pollution, and appropriate precautions should be taken to monitor and anticipate its quality in advance. Among all the countries, the air quality in India is decreasing daily, which is a matter of concern to the health department. Many studies use machine learning and Deep learning methods to predict atmospheric pollutant levels, prioritizing accuracy over interpretability. Many research studies confuse researchers and readers about how to proceed with further research. This paper aims to give every detail of the considered air pollutants and brief about the techniques used, their advantages, and challenges faced during pollutant prediction, which leads to a better understanding of the techniques before starting any research related to air pollutant prediction. This paper has given numerous prospective questions on air pollution that piqued the study’s interest. This study discussed various machine and deep learning methods and optimization techniques. Despite all the discussed machine learning and deep learning techniques, the paper concluded that more datasets, better learning techniques, and a variety of suggestions would enhance interpretability while maintaining high accuracy for air pollution prediction. The purpose of this review is also to reveal how a family of neural network algorithms has helped researchers across the globe to predict air pollutant(s).

A hybrid spatiotemporal model combining graph attention network and gated recurrent unit for regional composite air pollution prediction and collaborative control

Machine learning (ML) models have been extensively applied in air quality prediction. However, many of these models often failed to unveil complex mechanisms and regional spatiotemporal variations of composite air pollution. This brings uncertainties in using ML models for effective composite air pollution control. The present study developed a novel hybrid spatiotemporal model framework combining Graph Attention Network (GAT) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), namely the GAT-GRU model, to foresee composite air pollutions with a focus on PM2.5 and O3. By extracting attention matrices for PM2.5O3 composite pollution and applying the Louvain algorithm, the framework established effective community network divisions for coordinated control of PM2.5O3 composite pollution. The framework was applied and tested in China's “2 + 26″ cities, a city cluster with most heavy PM2.5 and O3 pollution and precursor emission sources. The results demonstrate that the framework successfully captured spatiotemporal evolution of combined PM2.5 and O3 pollution. The attention matrix is autonomously generated during course of the model learning process with the aim to interpret the complex interactions among “2 + 26″ cities. The framework provides a new perspective for the interpretability of artificial intelligence models and offers a methodological support and scientific evidence for formulating regional pollution cooperative governance strategies.

Bibliometric analysis of Indian research trends in air quality forecasting research using machine learning from 2007–2023 using Scopus database

Machine-learning air pollution prediction studies are widespread worldwide. This study examines the use of machine learning to predict air pollution, its current state, and its expected growth in India. Scopus was used to search 326 documents by 984 academics published in 231 journals between 2007 and 2023. Biblioshiny and Vosviewer were used to discover and visualise prominent authors, journals, research papers, and trends on these issues. In 2018, interest in this topic began to grow at a rate of 32.1 percent every year. Atmospheric Environment (263 citations), Procedia Computer Science (251), Atmospheric Pollution Research (233) and Air Quality, Atmosphere, and Health (93 citations) are the top four sources, according to the Total Citation Index. These journals are among those leading studies on using machine learning to forecast air pollution. Jadavpur University (12 articles) and IIT Delhi (10 articles) are the most esteemed institutions. Singh Kp's 2013 "Atmospheric Environment" article tops the list with 134 citations. The Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology and the Department of Science and Technology are top Indian funding agency receive five units apiece, demonstrating their commitment to technology. The authors' keyword co-occurrence network mappings suggest that machine learning (127 occurrences), air pollution (78 occurrences), and air quality index (41) are the most frequent keywords. This study predicts air pollution using machine learning. These terms largely mirror our Scopus database searches for "machine learning," "air pollution," and "air quality," showing that these are among the most often discussed issues in machine learning research on air pollution prediction. This study helps academics, professionals, and global policymakers understand "air pollution prediction using machine learning" research and recommend key areas for further research.

Development of Machine Learning and Deep Learning Prediction Models for PM2.5 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

The application of machine learning and deep learning in air pollution management is becoming increasingly crucial, as these technologies enhance the accuracy of pollution prediction models, facilitating timely interventions and policy adjustments. They also facilitate the analysis of large datasets to identify pollution sources and trends, ultimately contributing to more effective and targeted environmental protection strategies. Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), a major metropolitan area in southern Vietnam, has experienced a significant rise in air pollution levels, particularly PM2.5, in recent years, creating substantial risks to both public health and the environment. Given the challenges posed by air quality issues, it is essential to develop robust methodologies for predicting PM2.5 concentrations in HCMC. This study seeks to develop and evaluate multiple machine learning and deep learning models for predicting PM2.5 concentrations in HCMC, Vietnam, utilizing PM2.5 and meteorological data over 911 days, from 1 January 2021 to 30 June 2023. Six algorithms were applied: random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), support vector regression (SVR), artificial neural network (ANN), generalized regression neural network (GRNN), and convolutional neural network (CNN). The results indicated that the ANN is the most effective algorithm for predicting PM2.5 concentrations, with an index of agreement (IOA) value of 0.736 and the lowest prediction errors during the testing phase. These findings imply that the ANN algorithm could serve as an effective tool for predicting PM2.5 concentrations in urban environments, particularly in HCMC. This study provides valuable insights into the factors that affect PM2.5 concentrations in HCMC and emphasizes the capacity of AI methodologies in reducing atmospheric pollution. Additionally, it offers valuable insights for policymakers and health officials to implement targeted interventions aimed at reducing air pollution and improving public health.

Air pollutant prediction based on a attention mechanism model of the Yangtze River Delta region in frequent heatwaves

Heatwaves pose significant threats to urban environments, affecting both ecological systems and public health, primarily through the exacerbation of air pollution. Accurate prediction of air pollutant concentrations during heatwave periods is crucial for authorities to develop timely prevention and control strategies. Thus, we developed the 1D-CNN-BiLSTM-attention model, specifically designed to account for the unique data characteristics associated with heatwave conditions. Our model leverages an attention mechanism to enhance its ability to learn and predict air pollutant behavior during heatwaves. Across six scenario-based experiments, the model demonstrated high predictive accuracy, achieving a MAPE of 2.93 %. The model integrates meteorological indicators such as temperature, humidity, wind speed, cloud cover, and precipitation, extending its predictive capability across a spatial range of 150 km. In experiments testing the model's applicability to three typical city types in the Yangtze River Delta region, the results confirmed its effectiveness in predicting air pollutants. These findings highlight the model's usefulness for studying air pollution during urban heatwave periods on a regional scale, demonstrating its robustness and reliability under varying weather conditions.

TKSTAGNet: A Top-K Spatio-Temporal Attention Gating Network for air pollution prediction

Accurate air pollution prediction is of great significance for human health, travel, and environmental management. As an emerging artificial intelligence technology, Transformer has already shown tremendous potential in air pollution prediction. Unfortunately, existing Transformer-based methods are challenging to accurately predict air pollution due to two limitations: (1) they neglect irrelevant spatial and temporal neighbors (e.g., neighboring sensors and timesteps) when modeling spatio-temporal correlations, and (2) they lack an adaptive mechanism to mine different effects caused by various external factors (e.g., meteorological conditions). Jointly taking these limitations into account, we propose a novel Transformer-based architecture for air pollution prediction, named Top-K Spatio-Temporal Attention Gating Network (TKSTAGNet). In this architecture, to effectively extract spatio-temporal correlations, we first design a TopKpooling Spatial Attention (TopK-SA) and a TopKpooling Temporal Attention (TopK-TA). In TopK-SA, the TopKpooling mechanism is introduced into spatial attention to filter out irrelevant spatial neighbors, accurately capturing spatial dependencies. In TopK-TA, the TopKpooling mechanism is integrated with temporal attention to identify and exclude irrelevant temporal neighbors, precisely extracting temporal dependencies. To adaptively fuse various external factors, a gating fusion module is then proposed. We conduct experiments on three real-world air pollution datasets from urban regions in Beijing, Shanghai, and Chongqing, respectively. Experimental results demonstrate that TKSTAGNet outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in prediction precision and fitting the variation trends of air pollution.

Pollutants-mediated viral hepatitis in different types: assessment of different algorithms and time series models

The escalating frequency of environmental pollution incidents has raised significant concerns regarding the potential health impacts of pollutant fluctuations. Consequently, a comprehensive study on the role of pollutants in the prevalence of viral hepatitis is indispensable for the advancement of innovative prevention strategies. Monthly incidence rates of viral hepatitis from 2005 to 2020 were sourced from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Infectious Disease Surveillance Information System. Pollution data spanning 2014–2020 were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), encompassing pollutants such as CO, NO2, and O3. Time series analysis models, including seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), Holt-Winters model, and Generalized Additive Model (GAM), were employed to explore prediction and synergistic effects related to viral hepatitis. Spearman correlation analysis was utilized to identify pollutants suitable for inclusion in these models. Concurrently, machine learning (ML) algorithms were leveraged to refine the prediction of environmental pollutant levels. Finally, a weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression framework was developed to evaluate the singular and combined impacts of pollutants on viral hepatitis cases across different demographics, age groups, and environmental strata. The incidence of viral hepatitis in Beijing exhibited a declining trend, primarily characterized by HBV and HCV types. In predicting hepatitis prevalence trends, the Holt-Winters additive seasonal model outperformed the SARIMA multiplicative model ((1,1,0) (2,1,0) [12]). In the prediction of environmental pollutants, the SVM model demonstrated superior performance over the GPR model, particularly with Polynomial and Besseldot kernel functions. The combined pollutant risk effect on viral hepatitis was quantified as βWQS (95% CI) = 0.066 (0.018, 0.114). Among different groups, PM2.5 emerged as the most sensitive risk factor, notably impacting patients with HCV and HEV, as well as individuals aged 35–64. CO predominantly affected HAV patients, showing a risk effect of βWQS (95% CI) = − 0.0355 (− 0.0695, − 0.0016). Lower levels of PM2.5 and PM10 were associated with heightened risk of viral hepatitis incidence with a lag of five months, whereas elevated levels of PM2.5 (100–120 μg/m3) and CO correlated with increased hepatitis incidence risk with a lag of six months. The Holt-Winters model outperformed the SARIMA model in predicting the incidence of viral hepatitis. Among machine learning algorithms, SVM and GPR models demonstrated superior performance for analyzing pollutant data. Patients infected with HAV and HEV were primarily influenced by PM10 and CO, whereas SO2 and PM2.5 significantly impacted others. Individuals aged 35–64 years appeared particularly susceptible to these pollutants. Mixed pollutant exposures were found to affect the development of viral hepatitis with a notable lag of 5–6 months. These findings underscore the importance of long-term monitoring of pollutants in relation to viral hepatitis incidence.

Improving the short-term prediction of dissolved carbon monoxide using a combination of Light GBM and meta-heuristic algorithms

In this study, the prediction of carbon monoxide pollutants on a short-term scale has been investigated according to some input data sources, comprising gas concentrations related to air quality and weather features. Utilizing a hybrid modeling approach that integrates the Light Gradient Boosting Machine with several meta-heuristic optimization algorithms such as Chaos Game Optimization, Aquila Optimizer, and others, we aimed to optimize the hyperparameters of the Light GBM to enhance predictive accuracy. The application of a K-fold cross-validation technique with K=5 helped in preventing overfitting. By conducting a case study on a real dataset collected from a gas multi-sensor device, it was found that the hybrid model combining the Light Gradient Boosting Machine with Chaos Game Optimization demonstrated superior performance compared to other models. The values of the coefficient of determination, Root Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error, and Mean Absolute Percentage Error for this model based on test data are 0.99, 0.0393, 0.0301, and 0.0052, respectively. These results underscore the effectiveness of the hybridization approach in providing highly accurate predictions for short-term carbon monoxide concentrations, offering a valuable tool for environmental monitoring and enhancing public health safeguards.

Estimation of Traffic Emissions by Integrating COPERT and CUBE

Air pollution caused by motor vehicles is harmful to public health. Managing the cause of this type of pollution is very difficult. Effective prediction and management of pollution can be attained only by computing air pollution. It is difficult to measure emissions directly, so it is estimated using a variety of models developed worldwide. The current study made an attempt to integrate the emission model COPERT with the traffic assignment model in CUBE software for predicting the traffic-related emissions of pollutants SO2, NO2 & PM2.5 in mixed traffic conditions by considering passenger car and light duty vehicles (LDVS), two-wheeler, auto and bus. The study also aimed to include fuel variables and meteorological variable humidity along with fleet composition, average speed and average monthly temperature as inputs. This would enable us to control the rising vehicular emission, by assessing current and future air quality and thereby implementing policy decisions.

Leveraging long short term memory in air pollution prediction in Nairobi

Leveraging long short term memory in air pollution prediction in Nairobi

Evaluation of Machine Learning Models in Air Pollution Prediction for a Case Study of Macau as an Effort to Comply with UN Sustainable Development Goals

Evaluation of Machine Learning Models in Air Pollution Prediction for a Case Study of Macau as an Effort to Comply with UN Sustainable Development Goals

A novel spatial prediction method for soil heavy metal based on unbiased conditional kernel density estimation

Soil contamination by heavy metals has emerged as a significant global problem. Accurately mapping the spatial distribution of soil heavy metal pollutant concentrations is indispensable for effective agriculture and environmental management. Nevertheless, challenges arise in obtaining comprehensive data at all desired locations, due to limitations in measuring equipment capacity and the associated capital costs. To obtain soil heavy metal maps efficiently and accurately, this paper proposes a nonparametric spatial prediction method, based on unbiased conditional kernel density estimation (UCKDE). The proposed method incorporates the advantages of both geostatistics and machine learning, including stability, adaptability, and the ability to account for various types of auxiliary information. Additionally, it can directly predict the probabilistic density function (PDF) of soil heavy metal content at the target location based on sampling data without complex parameter settings, providing both a deterministic single value and a probabilistic prediction interval. The proposed method and ordinary kriging (OK) were implemented for the spatial prediction of the six heavy metals (As, Cd, Cu, Hg, Mn, and Sb) with the greatest coefficients of variation (CV = 0.53, 1.14, 0.66, 1.05, 0.81 and 0.74, respectively) in Qingxi Town, Chongqing, China. The results showed that the predictive capability of the proposed method (with RMSE values of 5.82, 0.61, 14.76, 0.15, 383.84, and 0.85, respectively) is superior to that of OK (with RMSE values of 5.29, 0.87, 16.37, 0.22, 493.22, and 1.58, respectively) in most cases, particularly when the CV value is high. Besides, the prediction accuracy of the proposed method can be further enhanced by incorporating parent material, resulting in RMSE values of 3.02, 0.51, 8.98, 0.08, 194.16, and 0.56, respectively. The results affirm the reliability of the proposed method and suggest its effectiveness as a tool for soil heavy metal pollution prediction in practical applications.

Applications of machine learning & Internet of Things for outdoor air pollution monitoring and prediction: A systematic literature review

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), air pollution kills seven million people every year. Outdoor air pollution is a major environmental health problem affecting low, middle, and high-income countries. In the past few years, the research community has explored IoT-enabled machine learning applications for outdoor air pollution prediction. The general objective of this paper is to systematically review applications of machine learning and Internet of Things (IoT) for outdoor air pollution prediction and the combination of monitoring sensors and input features used. Two research questions were formulated for this review. 1086 publications were collected in the initial PRISMA stage. After the screening and eligibility phases, 37 papers were selected for inclusion. A cost-based analysis was conducted on the findings to highlight high-cost monitoring, low-cost IoT and hybrid enabled prediction. Three methods of prediction were identified: time series, feature-based and spatio-temporal. This review’s findings identify major limitations in applications found in the literature, namely lack of coverage, lack of diversity of data and lack of inclusion of context-specific features. This review proposes directions for future research and underlines practical implications in healthcare, urban planning, global synergy and smart cities.

Short-term air pollution prediction using graph convolutional neural networks

Pollution is a major concern in the present day, causing multiple illnesses and deaths, specifically in developing countries in Asia and Africa. While it has drawn worldwide attention as governments try to issue laws to meet certain criteria for air pollution levels, pollution concentration forecasting has become a major challenge. Particularly, short term forecasting will help to gain information regarding concentrations of harmful pollutants for the upcoming hours and enable better decision-making with regards to controlling air pollution. In this paper, we investigate spatio-temporal graph-based models to determine the best methods for spatial and temporal analysis of data. The models have the additional capacity to perform multi-variate predictions of correlated data, i.e., predicting multiple pollutant concentrations simultaneously, thus requiring lower computational efforts. A real-world pollution dataset measured over Delhi, India, is used to comparing the proposed models with baselines, which shows the Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolution Neural Network (STGCN) models to be performing better than others. For a better understanding of model architectures with the most effective strategies for spatial and temporal data analysis, three models, namely STGCN-A, STGCN-B, STGCN-C have been developed. The models have been compared with 6 other baselines over multiple forecasting horizons of 1 h, 24 h, and 48 h timesteps using various metrics such as mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percent error (MAPE). On the PM2.5 dataset of Delhi, STGCN-B achieves a performance of 10.53 MAE, 6.92 RMSE and 25.25 MAPE for a 1 h forecast, while STGCN-C achieves 20.18 MAE, 14.73 RMSE and 55.45 MAPE for a 24 h forecast. In general, both structures achieve similar results, with STGCN-C being better in many cases. They are further analysed through observation-prediction graphs and Taylor diagrams, which give an insight into our findings. The models are additionally validated on a benchmark real-world dataset from California, USA for better understanding of the spatio-temporal relations and model performances on a more stable dataset, where STGCN-C performs best for PM2.5 with 4.30 RMSE, 1.98 MAE, 25.96 MAPE for 1 h predictions for univariate data and 3.63 RMSE, 1.88 MAE and 25.91 MAPE in multivariate forecasting. The developed spatio-temporal graph-based models hold promising applications in urban air quality management, aiding policymakers in implementing targeted interventions to mitigate pollution-related health risks. Furthermore, these models can support public health agencies by providing timely and accurate forecasts of pollutant concentrations, enabling proactive measures to safeguard community well-being. Our study showcases the efficacy of spatio-temporal graph-based models in accurately forecasting air pollutant concentrations, with particular emphasis on short-term predictions. By leveraging multi-variate capabilities, our proposed models demonstrate superior performance compared to baseline approaches across various forecasting horizons.

Enhancing air pollution prediction: A neural transfer learning approach across different air pollutants

Air pollution stands out as one of the most alarming environmental challenges. It poses significant risks to human health and the environment. Accurate forecasting of air pollutant concentration levels is crucial for effective air quality management and timely implementation of mitigation strategies. In this paper, the transfer learning technique is investigated using the artificial neural network (ANN), also called multi-layer perception (MLP), to transfer knowledge across different air pollutants forecasting, and therefore, to generalize over a large set of air pollutants in the same air monitoring station. By leveraging the knowledge learned from a source forecasting task, transfer learning allows us to reduce the data requirements, speed up the training of the models, and enhance the predictive performance for different air pollutants for the target forecasting task. We present a comprehensive analysis of the transfer learning across different air pollutants in the same air monitoring station on a large dataset of air quality measurements. Our results demonstrate that transfer learning significantly improves forecasting accuracy with fewer fine-tuning data, particularly when limited labeled data is available for the target task. The findings of this study contribute to the advancement of air pollution forecasting methodologies, facilitating better decision-making processes and proactive air quality management.

A multi-task stations cooperative air quality prediction system for sustainable development

In recent years, A series of environmental problems caused by air pollution have attracted widespread attention. Air quality forecasting has become an indispensable part of people’s daily life. However, the traditional air quality prediction (AQP) model WRF-CMAQ simulation system faces several challenges: (1) the fuzziness of pollutant formation mechanism; (2) the hardness of integrating the features of meteorological conditions; (3) the difficulty of cooperating among monitoring stations. To deal with these challenges, we propose a multi-task station cooperative air quality prediction (MTSC-AQP) system for sustainable development. The MTSC-AQP system contains three modules: air quality analysis, a WRF-LSTM module for initial pollutant prediction, and multi-station cooperative AQP. Through air quality analysis, it can calculate the air quality index (AQI) and analyze the correlation between pollutants and meteorological conditions. Then, the WRF-LSTM module integrates spatio-temporal multi-source data to forecast the initial concentration of pollutants. Finally, the system incorporates the gravity model to predict the final AQI. Extensive experiments conducted on real-world datasets show the effectiveness of forecasting the AQI by using the MTSC-AQP system.

A novel hybrid optimization model for evaluating and forecasting air quality grades.

Air pollution has a significant global impact on natural resources and public health. Accurate prediction of air pollution is crucial for effective prevention and control measures. However, due to regional variations, different cities may have varying primary pollutants, posing new challenges for accurate prediction. In this paper, we propose a novel method called FP-RF, which integrates clustering algorithms to categorize multiple cities according to their air quality index values. Subsequently, we apply functional principal component analysis to extract the primary components of air pollution within each cluster. Furthermore, an enhanced random forest algorithm is utilized to predict air quality grades for each city. We conduct experimental evaluations using authentic historical data from Anhui Province spanning from 2018 to 2023. The results unequivocally establish the effectiveness of our model, with an average accuracy rate of 98.6% in forecasting six pollution grades and 96.04% accuracy in predicting 16 prefecture-level cities, surpassing performance compared to other baseline models.