Prediction Of Future Situations Research Articles

A chaotic iterative fuzzy modeling of circulating a simple sentence

In this paper, we propose a new model to describe variations in interpretation and perception of a simple sentence by different people. To show the understandability of a simple sentence in the prediction of future situations, the meaning of a sentence is modeled as a fuzzy if-then rule, and the fuzzy model is investigated in an iterative process. The main goal of the paper is modeling a linguistic rule. This is done using an if-then rule and its variation through one person to another. The model predicts that the interpretation reaching the final person in the following years can be chaotic and thus unpredictable.

Network security situation prediction based on improved adaptive grey Verhulst model

Network security situation is a hot research topic in the field of network security. Whole situation awareness includes the current situation evaluation and the future situation prediction. However, the now-existing research focuses on the current situation evaluation, and seldom discusses the future prediction. Based on the historical research, an improved grey Verhulst model is put forward to predict the future situation. Aiming at the shortages in the prediction based on traditional Verhulst model, the adaptive grey parameters and equaldimensions grey filling methods are proposed to improve the precision. The simulation results prove that the scheme is efficient and applicable.

The evolution of foresight: What is mental time travel, and is it unique to humans?

In a dynamic world, mechanisms allowing prediction of future situations can provide a selective advantage. We suggest that memory systems differ in the degree of flexibility they offer for anticipatory behavior and put forward a corresponding taxonomy of prospection. The adaptive advantage of any memory system can only lie in what it contributes for future survival. The most flexible is episodic memory, which we suggest is part of a more general faculty of mental time travel that allows us not only to go back in time, but also to foresee, plan, and shape virtually any specific future event. We review comparative studies and find that, in spite of increased research in the area, there is as yet no convincing evidence for mental time travel in nonhuman animals. We submit that mental time travel is not an encapsulated cognitive system, but instead comprises several subsidiary mechanisms. A theater metaphor serves as an analogy for the kind of mechanisms required for effective mental time travel. We propose that future research should consider these mechanisms in addition to direct evidence of future-directed action. We maintain that the emergence of mental time travel in evolution was a crucial step towards our current success.

The Nature of the Information to be Displayed at Sea

The view is taken in this paper that an automatic navigation system should be capable of weighing up data and issuing instructions, in the same manner as a human navigator. Conventional information tends to offer static rather than dynamic data.It is suggested that there are several stages of development towards completely automatic navigation: (i) a dynamic interpretation of the existing navigational situation, (ii) the automatic prediction of future situations, (iii) automatic navigational advice, (iv) automatic control of a ship under the supervision of a navigator. Such control would not take care of all situations but would be particularly suited to some; a list of the information likely to be required for presentation is given.For entirely automatic navigation to be feasible, the whole of the process of transport at sea may have to be reviewed. It is suggested that the trend should be towards presenting error, rate of change and forecast data.