Prediction Of Composite Outcome Research Articles

Central Venous Waveform Patterns in the Fontan Circulation Independently Contribute to the Prediction of Composite Survival.

It is well appreciated that the Fontan circulation perturbs central venous hemodynamics, with elevated pressure being the clearest change associated with Fontan comorbidities, such as Fontan-associated liver disease (FALD) and protein-losing enteropathy (PLE). Our group has better quantity of these venous perturbations through single- and multi-location analyses of flow waveforms obtained from magnetic resonance imaging of Fontan patients. Here, we determine if such analyses, which yield principal components (PC) that describe flow features, are associated with Fontan survival. Patients with a Fontan circulation (N = 140) that underwent free-breathing and mechanically ventilated cardiac MRI were included in this study. Standard volumetric and functional hemodynamics, as well as flow analysis principal components, were subjected to univariate and bivariate Cox regression analyses to determine composite clinical outcome, including plastic bronchitis, PLE, and referral and receipt of transplant. Unsurprisingly, ventricular function measures of ejection fraction (EF; HR = 0.88, p < 0.0001), indexed end-systolic volume (ESVi; HR 1.02, p < 0.0001), and indexed end-diastolic volume (EDVi; HR = 1.02, p = 0.0007) were found as specific predictors of clinical events, with specificities uniformly > 0.75. Additionally a feature of IVC flow (PC2) indicating increased flow in systole was found as a highly sensitive predictor (HR = 0.851, p = 0.027, sensitivity 0.93). In bivariate prediction, combinations of ventricular function (EF, ESVi, EDVi) with this IVC flow feature yielded best overall prediction of composite outcome. This suggests that central venous waveform analysis relays additional information about Fontan patient survival and that coupling sensitive and specific measures in bivariate analysis is a useful approach for obtaining superior prediction of survival.