Wind Speed Prediction Research Articles

Application of deep forest algorithm incorporating seasonality and temporal correlation for wind speed prediction in offshore wind farm

Accurate prediction of wind speed is a prerequisite for the safe and accurate operation of wind power generation, however, WRF models typically do not produce sufficiently accurate wind speed predictions. This study proposed a Seasonal and Temporal Correlation - Deep Forest (STC-DF) model for offshore wind speed prediction. Different from traditional methods, the STC-DF model takes the advantages of the deep forest algorithm to automatically learn complex feature interactions without manual feature engineering. The model is designed to capture the seasonal and temporal characteristics of wind speed variations. To test the effectiveness of the proposed method, we applied the trained STC-DF model to an offshore wind farm in Hainan Province, China. Seven days of data from each season were selected for testing. The results show that the STC-DF model can effectively reduce the error caused by WRF forecast. The error index of the corrected wind speed reduced more than 40%, the accuracy of wind speed forecast increased 15%. And the method passed the multi-model comparison test and robustness experiment. These research results show that the STC-DF model has strong versatility and good correction ability, and is suitable for wind speed forecasting in different regions, which is a feasible method to improve the reliability of offshore wind power generation.

The Challenge of Predicting the Solar Wind Speed near Sunspot Minimum

By applying potential-field source-surface and potential-field current-sheet extrapolations to photospheric field maps from three different observatories, we predict the solar wind speed at Earth for several Carrington rotations during 2018–2021 and compare the results with in situ observations. The predicted speeds are taken to be inversely correlated with the rate of flux-tube expansion inside the source surface, located at a heliocentric distance of 2.5 R ⊙. The results often differ markedly from one observatory to another and are very sensitive to the latitudinal position of the ecliptic relative to the narrow belt of slow wind that surrounds the source-surface neutral line. Our main conclusions are that (1) the magnetograph measurements themselves are a major source of uncertainty in solar wind predictions; (2) these uncertainties are especially large near solar minimum, when Earth is located near the rapid transition between slow and fast wind that occurs on either side of the heliospheric current sheet; (3) comparison of the derived open field regions with observed coronal holes provides a strong, underutilized constraint on wind speed predictions; and (4) the observed polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field provides another important constraint on the location of the source region.

Spatiotemporal wind speed forecasting using conditional local convolution and multidimensional meteorology features

Wind speed prediction is crucial for precisely wind power forecasting and reduced maintenance costs. Highland regions, which possess a considerable wind potential, present complex meteorological conditions, making wind speed prediction challenging. Traditional weather forecasting relies on complex statistical methods and extensive prior knowledge. While recent deep learning models have improved prediction accuracy, they often assume uniform influence weight structure, limiting model effectiveness. This study introduces an enhanced Conditional Local Convolution Recurrent Network (CLCRN) model to improve spatiotemporal wind speed forecasting using multidimensional meteorological inputs such as temperature, pressure, and dew point, alongside wind components. This model addresses uniform influence model weight issue by redesigning convolution kernels to better capture local meteorological features and integrating multiple influencing factors. Our model consistently achieves lower Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) values across various prediction intervals (3, 6, 9, and 12 h) compared to other models, supported by the meteorological station data from 2019 to 2021. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of the local convolution weights aligns with local wind velocity patterns in Inner Mongolia, enhancing model interpretability. These results demonstrate potential for practical applications in renewable energy planning and wind dynamics simulation.

Navigating the Nexus of Artificial Intelligence and Renewable Energy for the Advancement of Sustainable Development Goals

The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into renewable energy and sustainability represents a transformative approach toward achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs), especially SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure), and SDG 13 (Climate Action). This study utilized the PRISMA framework to conduct a systematic review, focusing on the role of AI in renewable energy and sustainable development. This research utilized Scopus’s curated AI research area, which employs text mining to refine AI concepts into unique keywords. Further refinement via the All Science Journals Classification system and SDG-mapping filters narrowed the focus to publications relevant to renewable energy and SDGs. By employing the BERTopic modeling approach, our study identifies major topics, such as enhancing wind speed forecasts, performance analysis of fuel cells, energy management in elective vehicles, solar irradiance prediction, optimizing biofuel production, and improving energy efficiency in buildings. AI-driven models offer promising solutions to address the dynamic challenges of sustainable energy. Insights from academia-industry collaborations indicate that such partnerships significantly accelerate sustainable-energy transitions, with a focus on AI-driven energy storage, grid management, and renewable-energy forecasting. A global consensus on the critical role of investing in technology-driven solutions for energy sustainability was underscored by the relationship between funding data and global R&D spending patterns. This study serves as a resource for practitioners to harness AI technologies for renewable energy, where for example, AI’s accurate wind speed predictions can increase wind farm efficiency, highlighting the necessity of innovation and collaboration for sustainable development.

Comparisons of experimentally and numerically determined statistics for predicting low-occurrence wind speeds around a 1:1:2 block model

Accurate prediction of low-occurrence wind speeds around urban structures is crucial for safe building design. Although Large-eddy simulation (LES) is commonly used as a high-fidelity model as compared with the Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) simulations, the present validation process relies on the comparison of fundamental statistics of the mean and standard deviations. The discrepancies in LESs and wind-tunnel experiments (WTEs) are unclear in terms of physical quantities characterizing the unsteadiness of the simulated turbulent flow such as probability density and power spectral densities, and low-occurrence winds speeds. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of LES in predicting unsteady wind behavior around a 1:1:2 block model. The study identifies prominent differences to improve the accuracy of unsteady numerical simulations especially for the purpose of predicting low-occurrence wind speeds. Various advection schemes in LESs were investigated, including first-order upwind, second-order linear, and dynamic interpolation schemes. The results show significant discrepancies, particularly in higher-order statistics and low-occurrence wind speeds, with WTE consistently exhibiting higher energy levels across all frequencies. These findings highlight the need to refine advection schemes to enhance their predictive accuracy. LESs with minimal numerical errors from discretization schemes can substantially improve urban wind assessments and contribute to the design of safer structures.

A machine learning-based probabilistic wind speed prediction model with multi-resolution data, quantile regression and bound estimation

Wind speed prediction can be important for management of long-span cross-sea bridges, and probabilistic prediction models are needed to take uncertainty of future wind speed into consideration. However, there are two shortcomings of existing models. One is the lack of supplementary input of detailed fluctuations of wind speed, and the other is that fixed quantiles are usually selected when the predicted probability distribution is converted into a confidence interval. To this end, we propose a novel machine learning-based probabilistic model with multi-resolution data, quantile regression and bound estimation. The proposed model is composed of the distribution prediction part and the interval prediction part. In the distribution prediction part, we employ multi-resolution data as input, which can complement details of fluctuations of wind speed to reduce uncertainty. The interval prediction part employs the lower upper bound estimation method to postprocess predicted quantiles and output a superior interval than selecting fixed quantiles. The proposed model is validated on the monitoring wind speed data of two long-span cross-sea bridges, where the superiority of the distribution part and the effectiveness of the interval part are demonstrated.

Artificial Intelligence enabled self-powered sensing and wind energy harvesting system for bridges monitoring

With the advancement of society, the significance of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and big data in facilitating the intelligent development of bridges is increasing. Bridges function as crucial urban links, and ensuring their safe and stable operation is paramount. Therefore, this paper proposes an Artificial Intelligence enabled self-powered sensing wind energy harvesting system (WEHS) designed specifically for bridges. The system mainly consists of two electromagnetic generators (EMG1 and EMG2) and a rolling ball triboelectric nanogenerator (RB-TENG). WEHS achieves the recycling of ambient wind energy through the lower electromagnetic generator (EMG2). A single-channel triboelectric nanogenerator (RB-TENG) enables the sensing of wind speed within the system, while the top electromagnetic generator (EMG1) utilizes a single magnet with coils of different diameters to realize wind direction sensing. Reynolds wind tunnel that the WEHS has an average power output of 392 mW and a power density of 414.86 W/m3, which is adequate to power the sensor. The accuracy of wind speed and direction prediction based on the Artificial Intelligence GRU deep learning algorithm model is 96 % and 99.04 %, respectively. Furthermore, by implementing deep learning models for wind speed and direction, it becomes feasible to forecast the variations in wind direction and speed in the vicinity of bridges. The WEHS exhibits significant potential for bridges application and can contribute to developing AIoT-based smart bridges.

Analyzing convolutional neural networks and linear regression models for wind speed forecasting in sustainable energy provision

Wind energy's significance lies in its contribution to electricity production. Accurate wind speed prediction is crucial for precisely forecasting electricity generation, enhancing its overall importance. For the wind speed prediction two methods are developed in this paper that are the Linear Regression Method and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). Linear regression makes a linear relation between input and output which are used to predict continuous outcomes. The second proposed leverage hierarchical feature extraction through convolutional layers, enabling them to excel at tasks like pattern recognition by capturing spatial patterns and hierarchies of information. Hyperparameter tuning is applied on both the models to minimize the errors. Then both the model’s performances are compared under different error matrices including MAE, RMSE, MSE and MAPE. The observations indicate that both the Linear Regression Model and CNN models are capable of forecasting wind speed However, the Linear Regression Model after Hyperparameter tuning performs better in terms of the calculated errors.

Enhancing Surface Wind Speed and Temperature Prediction Using Surface-Layer Emulator and Transfer Learning

Abstract Accurate prediction of surface wind speed and temperature is crucial for many sectors. Physical schemes in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and data-driven correction approaches have limitations due to uncertainties in parameterization and lack of robustness, respectively. This study introduces a physics-informed data model, PhyCorNet, which combines a deep learning–based physics emulator (PhyNet) and a subsequent correction network (CorNet). PhyNet imitates the revised surface-layer parameterization scheme [default option of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model]. CorNet refines predictions by mitigating the difference between PhyNet and observations. PhyCorNet enables gridded forecasts despite the training data being point based. Therefore, PhyCorNet can be regarded as a rediagnostic scheme for surface wind speed at 10 m (WS10) and temperature at 2 m (T2). Compared to WRF, it reduced diagnostic root-mean-square errors in the 24-h forecasts for WS10 and T2 by 40% and 36%, respectively, across China, with unbiased forecasts at almost all sites. PhyCorNet addresses the oversmoothing prediction issue of other deep learning models by providing the ability to represent fine-scale features and perform well in statistically extreme samples. In grid cells without observations for training, PhyCorNet performed much better than WRF, demonstrating the zero-shot learning capability. This study implies that the emulator plus bias correction provided by PhyCorNet could be used as a simple but effective approach to improve the performance of other diagnostic quantities in NWP. Significance Statement We developed a new model called PhyCorNet to improve the surface wind speed and temperature forecasts. Existing weather forecast models have limitations in accurately predicting these variables. PhyCorNet first uses a neural network (PhyNet) to mimic an existing physics-based wind and temperature calculation method. Another neural network [correction network (CorNet)] improves the PhyNet forecasts by comparing them with observations. Across China, PhyCorNet reduced 24-h forecast errors for wind speed by 40% and temperature by 36% compared to a conventional model. It performed well under diverse conditions and overcame the oversmoothing issues faced by other machine learning models. Importantly, PhyCorNet outperformed traditional models in areas without historical observations. We suggest that this new framework can also be used to enhance the forecasts of other atmospheric variables.

High Accuracy Short-term Wind Speed Prediction Methods based on LSTM

High Accuracy Short-term Wind Speed Prediction Methods based on LSTM

Average Wind Speed Prediction in Giresun-Kümbet Plateau Region with Artificial Neural Networks

In order to estimate the electricity generation capacity and schedule the supply for vendor needs, wind speed prediction is crucial for wind power plant frameworks. Prior to the installation of the wind power plants, a reliable wind behaviour model is neccesary. To have such a model, wind data is recorded periodically. In this study, hourly recorded meteorological data of actual pressure, relative humidity, temperature, wind direction and average wind speed for the year 2023 were obtained from the General Directorate of Meteorology for the Kümbet plateau region of Giresun province. The data is used to accurately predict the future wind speed for the region. Matlab Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) is utilized. Actual pressure, relative humidity, temperature and wind direction parameters are defined as input in the prediction process. 85% of the data set is used as training data and remainin 15% data set is used for testing data. An optimization process is applied to determine the number of hidden layers to have the prediction value with the smallest error. Bayesian Regularization training process was performed by seeing that the hidden layer has the lowest error at 90 neurons. Performance evaluations are performed with Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Pearson Correlation Coefficient (R) metrics. The values of the metrics for the test data are 26.7137, 5.1685, 3.5055 and 0.7457 respectively. The results show that, ANN based model is useful for the wind speed prediction over the region.

Temporally Correlated Deep Learning-Based Horizontal Wind-Speed Prediction.

Wind speed affects aviation performance, clean energy production, and other applications. By accurately predicting wind speed, operational delays and accidents can be avoided, while the efficiency of wind energy production can also be increased. This paper initially overviews the definition, characteristics, sensors capable of measuring the feature, and the relationship between this feature and wind speed for all Quality Indicators (QIs). Subsequently, the feature importance of each QI relevant to wind-speed prediction is assessed, and all QIs are employed to predict horizontal wind speed. In addition, we conduct a comparison between the performance of traditional point-wise machine learning models and temporally correlated deep learning ones. The results demonstrate that the Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) neural network yielded the highest level of accuracy across three metrics. Additionally, the newly proposed set of QIs outperformed the previously utilised QIs to a significant degree.

DMPR: A novel wind speed forecasting model based on optimized decomposition, multi-objective feature selection, and patch-based RNN

As the global demand for sustainable energy continues to grow, accurate wind speed prediction becomes crucial for optimizing the allocation of wind energy resources and enhancing the efficiency of wind power generation. This paper presents a composite prediction model that integrates Optimized Decomposition, Multi-Objective Feature Selection (MOFS), Patch-Based Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), and Cross-Attention Mechanisms. Initially, the wind speed time series is decomposed using RIME-optimized Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), and sample entropy of each component is calculated to reconstruct high, medium, and low-frequency components. Subsequently, these components are patched to serve as inputs to the RNN layers. The third step involves the incorporation of exogenous variables, where MOFS is employed for feature selection, followed by a decomposition and reconstruction through RIME-optimized VMD. This process applies Variate-wise Cross-Attention Mechanism on the high, medium, and low-frequency components of both endogenous and exogenous variables. Finally, the outputs from all processing steps are integrated through a normalization layer and a feed-forward layer to produce the final prediction results. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed model, through meticulous preprocessing and advanced architectural design, significantly improves the accuracy of wind speed predictions.

Airflow Modeling for Citrus under Protective Screens

This study explores the development and validation of an airflow model to support climate prediction for Citrus Under Protective Screens (CUPS) in California. CUPS is a permeable screen structure designed to protect a field of citrus trees from large insects including the vector that causes the devastating citrus greening disease. Because screen structures modify the environmental conditions (e.g., temperature, relative humidity, airflow), farm management and treatment strategies (e.g., pesticide spraying events) must be modified to account for these differences. Toward this end, we develop a model for predicting wind speed and direction in a commercial-scale research CUPS, using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. We describe the model and validate it in two ways. In the first, we model a small-scale replica CUPS under controlled conditions and compare modeled and measured airflow in and around the replica structure. In the second, we model the full-scale CUPS and use historical measurements to “back test” the model’s accuracy. In both settings, the modeled airflow values fall within statistical confidence intervals generated from the corresponding measurements of the conditions being modeled. These findings suggest that the model can aid decision support and smart agriculture solutions for farmers as they adapt their farm management practices for CUPS structures.

Sustainable energy: Advancing wind power forecasting with grey wolf optimization and GRU models

Wind power forecasting is critical for optimizing energy use and ensuring the reliability of wind power systems in renewable energy. This paper introduces a novel method that combines the Grey Wolf Optimization (GWO) algorithm with data compression techniques to enhance feature selection and reduce redundancy in wind speed prediction. By employing GWO, essential features were identified by grouping the dataset into intervals and analyzing their frequencies. Performance evaluation was conducted using various compression measures, including Rate DC-Miss, Rate DC-MEF, and Rate DC-BDG, compared with other models such as extreme gradient boosting, space-time graph neural networks, and deep learning models. The study's results show significant improvements in accuracy and efficiency for predicting wind speed compared to existing techniques. The proposed approach addresses both larger datasets and the impact of noise samples on prediction errors. Additionally, an MLDDR model was introduced to predict DC power generated from wind datasets, encompassing five stages: Data Preparation, Feature Selection, Data Compression, GRU-Based Predictions, and Rate of Reduction. Data reduction results are notable. The original wind dataset (104857613) was reduced to 1093913 after processing missing values, achieving a reduction rate of 0.136. Applying the MEF-GWO algorithm further reduced the dataset to 109395, with a reduction rate of 0.385. The BDG dataset was compressed to 1805, with a reduction rate of 0.607. In terms of prediction performance, the GRU model was evaluated on three datasets: the original, MEF, and BDG-GWO datasets. The GRU model demonstrated the highest accuracy (99.20 %) with the BDG-GWO dataset, with precision (0.9965), recall (0.9978), and F1 scores (0.9897) indicating superior performance. Training and testing times varied significantly, highlighting the computational challenges associated with deep learning techniques. This research addresses both programming and application challenges. Programming challenges include high computational demands and the trial-and-error nature of parameter determination in deep learning, mitigated by using GWO. Application challenges involve reducing large datasets, grouping them into intervals, and evaluating performance using different compression measures. The main research questions addressed include the suitability of the GWO algorithm for dataset reduction in terms of dimensions (features and records) and the effectiveness of combining GWO with deep learning, specifically GRU, for enhanced prediction results. The study concludes that the GWO-PCA and GRU combination significantly improves prediction accuracy and reduces implementation time.

Deep learning model for solar and wind energy forecasting considering Northwest China as an example

The growing demand for renewable energy sources like wind and solar power requires accurate and reliable forecasting techniques for effective planning and operation. This study presents an attention-based spatial-temporal graph neural network–long short-term memory (ASTGNN-LSTM) model designed to predict wind speed and solar radiation using 20 years of meteorological data from five regions in Northwest China. The ASTGNN-LSTM model shows significant performance improvements over traditional methods, such as the historical average model, autoregressive integrated moving average model, and graph convolutional network with LSTM. After optimizing the hidden layers and learning rate, the relative errors for predicting wind speed and solar radiation are reduced to 27.15 % and 6.11 %, respectively. Sensitivity analysis reveals that location data have the most significant impact on predictions. These findings demonstrate that the ASTGNN-LSTM model effectively captures nonlinear relationships and can enhance renewable energy planning and management.

Artificial Neural Network Approach for Analysis and Prediction of Solar Radiation and Wind Speed in Telecommunication Systems

The use of renewable energy sources in the power grid is essential for maintaining economic growth, especially for many African countries. Therefore, these countries can also install advanced artificial intelligence technology in their airport’s power system to capture renewable energy. The paper aims to propose a real-time power management algorithm for a distributed hybrid renewable energy grid. It continues with the network modeling with the integration of solar and wind power. A multi-objective approach is proposed for the maximization of the spatial spectral efficiency and the energy efficiency as a function of the number of wind turbines and solar photovoltaic panels. Radio parameters for a Mobile Wireless inter-operability Medium Access (WiMAX) technology are considered for the simulation in MATLAB software. The results are quite mitigated but theoretically promising for the integration of green energy into the current telecommunication systems

Enhanced prediction model of short-term sea surface wind speed: A multiscale feature extraction and selection approach coupled with deep learning technique

Accurate prediction of short-term sea surface wind speed is essential for maritime safety and coastal management. Most conventional studies encounter challenges simply in analyzing raw wind speed sequences and extracting multiscale features directly from the original received data, which result in lower efficiency. In this paper, an enhanced hybrid model based on a novel data assemble method for original received data, a multiscale feature extraction and selection approach, and a predictive network, is proposed for accurate and efficient short-term sea surface wind speed forecasting. Firstly, the received original data including wind speed are assembled into correlation matrices in order to uncover inherent associations over varied time spans. Secondly a novel Multiscale Wind-speed Feature-Enhanced Convolutional Network (MW-FECN) is designed for efficient and selective multiscale feature extraction, which can capture comprehensive characteristics. Thirdly, a Random Forest Feature Selection (RF-FS) is employed to pinpoint crucial characteristics for enhanced prediction of wind speed with higher efficiency than the related works. Finally, the proposed hybrid model utilized a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) network to achieve the accurate prediction of wind speed. Experimental data are collected in Weihai sea area, and a case study consist of five benchmarks and three ablation models is conducted to assess the proposed hybrid model. Compared with the conventional methods, experiment results illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid model and demonstrate effective balancing prediction accuracy and computational time. The proposed hybrid model achieves up to a 28.45% MAE and 27.27% RMSE improvement over existing hybrid models.

CEEMDAN-RIME–Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction for Wind Farms Incorporating Multi-Head Self-Attention Mechanism

Accurate wind speed prediction is extremely critical to the stable operation of power systems. To enhance the prediction accuracy, we propose a new approach that integrates bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) with fully adaptive noise ensemble empirical modal decomposition (CEEMDAN), the RIME optimization algorithm (RIME), and a multi-head self-attention mechanism (MHSA). First, the historical data of wind farms are decomposed via CEEMDAN to extract the change patterns and features on different time scales, and different subsequences are obtained. Then, the parameters of the BiLSTM model are optimized using the frost ice optimization algorithm, and each subsequence is input into the neural network model containing the MHSA for prediction. Finally, the predicted values of each component are weighted and reconstructed to obtain the predicted values of wind speed time series. According to the experimental results, the method can predict the short-term wind speeds of wind farms more accurately. We verified the effectiveness of the method by comparing it with different models.

Wind speed prediction in some major cities in Africa using Linear Regression and Random Forest algorithms

Globally, wind energy if properly harnessed, could serve as a source of energy generation in Africa. This study compared the performance of two Machine Learning (ML) algorithms (Linear regression and Random Forest) in predicting wind speed in five major cities in Africa (Yaoundé, Pretoria, Nairobi, Cairo and Abuja). Wind data were collected between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2022, using the Solar Radiation Data Archive. The data preprocessing was carried out with 80% of the data used for training and 20% for validation. The performance of these ML algorithms was evaluated using Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The result shows that Nairobi (3.814795 m/s) closely followed by Cairo (3.606453 m/s) has the highest mean wind speed while Yaoundé (1.090512 m/s) has the lowest. Based on the performance metrics used, the two Machine Learning algorithms were competitive. Still, the Linear Regression (LR) algorithm outperformed the Random Forest Algorithm in predicting wind speed in all the selected major African cities. In Yaoundé (RMSE = 0.3892, MAE= 0.3001, MAPE =0.5030), Pretoria (RMSE=1.2339, MAE=0.9480, MAPE=0.7450) Nairobi (RMSE= 0.4223, MAE =0.6499, MAPE =0.1872), Nairobi (RMSE=0.6499, MAE=0.5171, MAPE =0.1872), Cairo (RMSE =1.0909, MAE =0.8544, MAPE =0.3541) and Abuja (RMSE = 0.70245, MAE =0.5441, MAPE= 0.4515) the Linear regression algorithms was found to outperformed Random Forest Regression. Therefore, the Linear regression algorithm is more reliable in predicting wind speed compared with the Random Forest regression.