Precipitation Estimation Products Research Articles

A retrospective hydrological uncertainty analysis using precipitation estimation ensembles for a poorly gauged basin in High Mountain Asia

Abstract We study the impact of uncertain precipitation estimates on simulated streamflows for the poorly gauged Yarlung Tsangpo basin (YTB), High Mountain Asia (HMA). A process-based hydrological model at 0.5 km resolution is driven by an ensemble of precipitation estimation products (PEPs), including analyzed ground observations, high-resolution precipitation estimates, climate data records and reanalyses over the 2008-2015 control period. The model is then forced retrospectively from 1983 onward to obtain seamless discharge estimates till 2007, a period for which there is very sparse flow data coverage. Whereas temperature forcing is considered deterministic, precipitation is sampled from the predictive distribution, which is obtained through processing PEPs by means of a probabilisitc processor of uncertainty. The employed Bayesian processor combines the PEPs and outputs the predictive densities of daily precipitation depth accumulation as well as the probability of precipitation occurrence, from which random precipitation fields for probabilistic model forcing are sampled. The predictive density of precipitation is conditional on the precipitation estimation predictors that are bias-corrected and variance adjusted. For the selected HMA study site, discharges simulated from reanalysis and climate data records score lowest against observations at three flow gauging points, whereas high-resolution satellite estimates perform better, but are still outperformed by precipitation fields obtained from analyzed observed precipitation and merged products, which were corrected against ground observations. The applied methodology indicates how missing flows for poorly gauged sites can be retrieved and is further extendable to hydrological projections of climate.

Quantitative Precipitation Estimation using X-Band Radar for Orographic Rainfall in the San Francisco Bay Area

In the San Francisco Bay Area, precipitation occurs in the wintertime, mostly as rain. Wintertime rainfall can be further classified into cold or stratiform rain with a typical radar bright band signature and warm orographic rain with absence of a radar bright band. Vertical Pointing S-Band profiler radar and disdrometer measurements from two of NOAA’s Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) sites in California are used to study the differences in microphysical properties between these two types of rain and their implications in radar rainfall estimation. A methodology has been developed to discriminate non bright band (NBB) rainfall from bright band (BB) rainfall using reflectivity (Z) and differential reflectivity (Z <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">DR</sub> ) computed from disdrometer data. Delineating the two rainfall types in this way allowed for an algorithm to be applied to the radar scans to identify rainfall types and apply appropriate reflectivity based and specific differential phase (K <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">DP</sub> ) based rainfall estimators. Recently, a gap-filling X-Band weather radar with dual-polarization capabilities was deployed in the San Francisco Bay Area in Santa Rosa to aid in weather monitoring and provide high resolution Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) products. When applied to real radar observations, this method shows great potential for improving the QPE compared to traditional operational products which more often tend to underestimate rainfall in the California coastal region.

A Comprehensive Assessment of Multiple High-Resolution Precipitation Grid Products for Monitoring Heavy Rainfall during the “7.20” Extreme Rainstorm Event in China

Precipitation products play an important role in monitoring rainstorm processes. This study takes a rare historical event of extreme, heavy precipitation that occurred in Henan Province, China, in July 2021 as a research case. By analyzing the distribution of the spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation errors, using a probability density function of the occurrence of precipitation and the daily variation pattern, we assess the capability of a radar precipitation estimation product (RADAR), satellite precipitation products (IMERG and GSMAP), a reanalysis product (ERA5) and a precipitation fusion product (the CMPAS) to monitor an extreme rainstorm in the Henan region. The CMPAS has the best fit with the gauge observations in terms of the precipitation area, precipitation maximum and the evolution of the whole process, with a low spatial variability of errors. However, the CMPAS slightly underestimated the precipitation extremum at the peak moment (06:00–08:00). The RADAR product was prone to a spurious overestimation of the originally small rainfall, especially during peak precipitation times, with deviations concentrated in the core precipitation area. The IMERG, GSMAP and ERA5 products have similar performances, all of which failed to effectively capture heavy precipitation in excess of 60 mm/h, with negative deviations in precipitation at mountainfront locations west of northern Henan Province. There is still a need for terrain-specific error revisions for areas with large topographic relief. By merging and processing precipitation data from multiple sources, the accuracy of the CMPAS is better than any single-source precipitation product. The CMPAS has the characteristic advantage of high spatial and temporal resolutions (0.01° × 0.01°/1 h), which play a positive role in precipitation dynamic monitoring, providing early warnings of heavy rainfall processes and hydrological application research.

AI-based estimation of precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau using multi-frame FY-4A satellite data

ABSTRACT The weather system over the Tibetan Plateau can cause disasters around the plateau and its downstream areas. Since there are few surface meteorological observation stations over the Tibetan Plateau, the precipitation here cannot be comprehensively detected. Therefore, satellite precipitation estimation products with high timeliness, accuracy, and full coverage are relied upon. This paper presents an AI-based precipitation estimation method using multi-frame FY-4A meteorological satellite data (FY-4A PRE-M). Firstly, multiple-derived features are constructed according to the brightness temperature of the satellite different channels, and the regional precipitation estimation model is then trained using the light gradient boosting machine (LGBM) algorithm. Based on the research results from precipitation retrieval using the infrared channel radiation features, this model analyzes the possible contribution of the radiation difference between channels at the same time and the radiation change in the same channel at different periods (15, 30, 45 and 60 min) to the precipitation estimation. The algorithm continuously updates the model with the history of available precipitation data. From 1 September 2021 to 31 August 2022, the precipitation estimations using the multi-frame FY-4A satellite data were evaluated through the ground rainfall gauge data based on the spatial – temporal matching. The results show that the multi-frame FY-4A satellite data have advantages in precipitation estimation. The heavy rainfall caused by a Tibetan Plateau shear line is evaluated using this algorithm. The results show that the precipitation estimations of FY-4A PRE-M and IMERG-L are close to the values of rain gauges. The FY-4A PRE-M can well describe the diurnal variations and the distribution of 24 h cumulative precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau, and the heavy rainfall belts in the central and northern Tibetan Plateau are also well monitored.

Assessment and Data Fusion of Satellite-Based Precipitation Estimation Products over Ungauged Areas Based on Triple Collocation without In Situ Observations

Reliable assessment of satellite-based precipitation estimation (SPE) and production of more accurate precipitation data by data fusion is typically challenging in sparsely gauged and ungauged areas. Triple collocation (TC) is a novel assessment approach that does not require gauge observations; it provides a feasible solution for this problem. This study comprehensively validates the TC performance for assessing SPEs and performs data fusion of multiple SPEs using the TC-based merging (TCM) approach. The study area is the Tibetan Plateau (TP), a typical area lacking gauge observations. Three widely used SPEs are used: the integrated multi-satellite retrievals for global precipitation measurement (IMERG) “early run” product (IMERG-E), the precipitation estimation from remotely sensed information using artificial neural networks (PERSIANN) dynamic infrared (PDIR), and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) morphing technique (CMORPH). Validation of the TC assessment approach shows that TC can effectively assess the SPEs’ accuracy, derive the spatial accuracy pattern of the SPEs, and reveal the accuracy ranking of the SPEs. TC can also detect the SPEs’ accuracy patterns, which are difficult to obtain from a traditional approach. The data fusion results of the SPEs show that TCM incorporates the regional advantages of the individual SPEs, providing more accurate precipitation data than the original SPEs, revealing that data fusion is reasonable and reliable in ungauged areas. In general, the TC approach performs well for the assessment and data fusion of SPEs, showing reasonable applicability in the TP and other areas lacking gauge data than other methods because it does not rely on gauge observations.

Utility of Open-Access Long-Term Precipitation Data Products for Correcting Climate Model Projection in South China

Insufficient precipitation observations hinder the bias-correction of Global Climate Model (GCM) precipitation outputs in ungauged and remote areas. As a result, the reliability of future precipitation and water resource projections is restricted for these areas. Open-access quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) products offer a potential solution to this challenge. This study assesses the effectiveness of three widely used, long-term QPEs, including ERA5, PERSIANN-CDR, and CHIRPS, in bias-correcting precipitation outputs from the CMIP6 GCMs. The evaluation involves the reproduction of precipitation distribution, streamflow simulation utility based on a hydrological model, and the accuracy of extreme indices associated with rainstorm/flood/drought events. This study selects the Beijiang basin located in the subtropical monsoon area of South China as the case study area. The results demonstrate that bias-correction using QPEs improves the performance of GCM precipitation outputs in reproducing precipitation/streamflow distribution and extreme indices, with a few exceptions. PCDR generally exhibits the most effective bias-correction utility, consistently delivering reasonable performance across various cases, making it a suitable alternative to gauge data for bias-correction in ungauged areas. However, GCM outputs corrected by ERA5 tend to overestimate overall precipitation and streamflow (by up to about 25% to 30%), while the correction results of CHIRPS significantly overestimate certain extreme indices (by up to about 50% to 100%). Based on the revealed performance of QPEs in correcting GCM outputs, this study provides references for selecting QPEs in GCM-based water resource projections in remote and ungauged areas.

An Analysis for the Applicability of Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) IMERG Precipitation Data in Typhoons

This study selected examples of 17 typhoons that landed in Fujian after passing through Taiwan. The study evaluated the precipitation in different time scales and the spatial distribution of daily precipitation of varying magnitudes in the southeastern coastal area by comparing satellite precipitation estimation products with meteorological observation station data. The evaluation used a correlation coefficient, mean relative error, relative bias, and graded assessment indexes (probability of detection, false alarm rate, and critical success index). Correlation coefficient analysis revealed that maximum daily precipitation performed best, followed by process total precipitation. The relative bias indicates that the precipitation estimated by the satellite is lower than the rainfall recorded by the automatic weather station. Mean relative error analysis showed that hourly precipitation had the highest error, followed by maximum daily precipitation. The GPM IMERG precipitation products’ retrieval of daily precipitation of varying magnitudes was assessed using three indicators. The assessment revealed that the satellite had a low under-reporting rate for light rain events but a high under-reporting rate for torrential rain events, especially extremely heavy rainstorm events, in terms of probability of detection. For the false alarm rate, the satellite had a small probability of false predictions for light rain events, while extremely heavy rainstorm events had the highest probability. For the critical success index, the satellite’s estimation of light rain events was basically consistent with reality; however, its ability to estimate precipitations above rainstorm levels was low. The results of the spatial assessment of heavy precipitation show that the satellite’s ability to detect heavy precipitation’s structure, intensity, and location is fair and has some reference value, especially for regions where conventional information is scarce.

Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Improve Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) Precipitation Estimates in the Western United States

Abstract The Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system produces a suite of hydrometeorological products that are widely used for applications such as flash flood warning operations, water resource management, and climatological studies. The MRMS radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) products have greater challenges in the western United States compared to the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS due to terrain-related blockages and gaps in radar coverage. Further, orographic enhancement of precipitation often occurs, which is highly variable in space and time and difficult to accurately capture with physically based approaches. A deep learning approach was applied in this study to understand the correlations between several interacting variables and to obtain a more accurate precipitation estimation in these scenarios. The model presented here is a convolutional neural network (CNN), which uses spatial information from small grids of several radar variables to predict an estimated precipitation value at the central grid point. Several case analyses are presented along with a yearlong statistical evaluation. The CNN model 24-h QPE shows higher accuracy than the MRMS radar QPE for several cool season atmospheric river events. Areas of consistent improvement from the CNN model are highlighted in the discussion along with areas where the model can be further improved. The initial findings from this work help set the foundation for further exploration of machine learning techniques and products for precipitation estimation as part of the MRMS operational system. Significance Statement This study explores the development and use of a deep learning model to generate precipitation fields in the complex terrain of the western United States. Generally, the model is able to improve on the statistical performance of existing radar-based precipitation estimation methods for several case studies and over a long-term period in 2021. We explore the patterns associated with certain areas of strong performance and suggest potential means of improving areas with weaker performance. These initial results indicate the potential of deep learning to supplement radar-based approaches in areas with observational limitations.

Quantitative Estimation of Rainfall from Remote Sensing Data Using Machine Learning Regression Models

To estimate rainfall from remote sensing data, three machine learning-based regression models, K-Nearest Neighbors Regression (K-NNR), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Random Forest Regression (RFR), were implemented using MSG (Meteosat Second Generation) satellite data. Daytime and nighttime data from a rain gauge are used for model training and validation. To optimize the results, the outputs of the three models are combined using the weighted average. The combination of the three models (hereafter called Com-RSK) markedly improved the predictions. Indeed, the MAE, MBE, RMSE and correlation coefficient went from 23.6 mm, 10.0 mm, 40.6 mm and 89% for the SVR to 20.7 mm, 5.5 mm, 37.4 mm, and 94% when the models were combined, respectively. The Com-RSK is also compared to a few methods using the classification in the estimation, such as the ECST Enhanced Convective Stratiform Technique (ECST), the MMultic technique, and the Convective/Stratiform Rain Area Delineation Technique (CS-RADT). The Com-RSK show superior performance compared to ECST, MMultic and CS-RADT methods.The Com-RSK is also compared to the two products of satellite estimates, namely CMORPH and CHIRPS. The results indicate that Com-RSK performs better than CMORPH and CHIRPS according to MBE, RMSE and CC (coefficient correlation). A comparison with three types of satellite precipitation estimation products, such as global product, regional product, and near real-time product, is performed. Overall, the methodology developed here shows almost the same results as regional product methods and exhibits better results than near real-time and global product methods.

PrecipGradeNet: A New Paradigm and Model for Precipitation Retrieval with Grading of Precipitation Intensity

Near-real-time precipitation retrieval plays an important role in the study of the evolutionary process of precipitation and the prevention of disasters caused by heavy precipitation. Compared with ground-based precipitation observations, the infrared precipitation estimations from geostationary satellites have great advantages in terms of geographical coverage and temporal resolution. However, precipitation retrieved from multispectral infrared data still faces challenges in terms of accuracy, especially in extreme cases. In this paper, we propose a new paradigm for satellite multispectral infrared data retrieval of precipitation and construct a new model called PrecipGradeNet. This model uses FY-4A L1 FDI data as the input, IMERG precipitation data as the training target, and improves the precipitation retrieval accuracy by grading the precipitation intensity through Res-UNet, a semantic segmentation network. To evaluate the precipitation retrieval of the model, we compare the retrieval results with the FY-4A L2 QPE operational product to the IMERG precipitation. IMERG is considered as the ground truth. We evaluate the precipitation retrieval from the precipitation fall area identification, the precipitation intensity interval discrimination, and the precipitation quantification. Experimental results show that PrecipGradeNet has better overall performance compared with the FY-4A QPE product in precipitation fall area identification with POD increased by 48% and CSI and HSS improved by 21% and 14%. PrecipGradeNet also has better performance in light precipitation with POD increased by 114% and CSI and HSS improved by 64% and 52%, and better overall precipitation quantification, with RMSE and CC improved by 16% and 15%. In addition, PrecipGradeNet avoids the overall bias in the low and extreme high precipitation cases. Therefore, the new paradigm proposed in this paper has the potential to improve the retrieval accuracy of satellite precipitation estimation products. This study suggests that the application of semantic segmentation methods may provide a new path to correct the intensity bias of the satellite-based precipitation products.

Spatio-temporal performance evaluation of 14 global precipitation estimation products across river basins in southwest Iran

Study regionKarkheh and Karun basins (29°−35°N, 46°−52°E) are two large river basins (area 51,000 and 67,000 km2, respectively) with complex topography in southwest Iran. Study focusAccess to spatio-temporally consistent precipitation data is a key requirement for hydrological studies, especially in data-scarce regions. This study evaluated 14 global precipitation products against gauge observations from 2003 to 2012 in Karun and Karkheh basins, southwest Iran. Different categorical and statistical indices at varying spatial and temporal resolution, including Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE), bias, correlation coefficient, and variability ratio, were used to evaluate the products. New hydrological insights for the regionFor daily time steps, TMPA-3B42V7.0, MERRA-2, and CMORPH-BLDV1.0 outperformed all other products, with KGE > 0.3. TMPA-3B42V7.0, MERRA-2, and PERSIANN-CDR were the best-performing products for monthly time steps, with KGE> 0.5. ERA5-Land showed the highest positive bias (bias>1.5) compared with in-situ observations, particularly for mountainous southeastern parts of Karun basin. Overall, bias-adjusted products obtained by merging ground-based observations in the estimations outperformed the unadjusted versions. The spatial distribution of statistical error metrics indicated that almost all products showed their greatest uncertainties for mountainous regions due to complex precipitation processes in these regions. These results can contribute significantly to hydrological and water resources planning measures in the study region, including early flood warning systems, drought monitoring, and optimization of dam operation.

Analysis of Extreme Rainfall and Natural Disasters Events Using Satellite Precipitation Products in Different Regions of Brazil

The number of natural disasters triggered by extreme events is increasing worldwide and significantly impacts modern society. Extreme rainfall is one of the most important factors contributing to these events. A better understanding of the physical process that causes extreme rainfall can allow rapid responses from decision-makers to lessen the impact of natural disasters on the local population. Satellite monitoring is widely used for this purpose and is essential for regions where terrestrial observations are limited or non-existent. The primary purpose of this study is to describe the performance of satellite products for extreme rainfall events that caused natural disasters in various climate regimes in Brazil and discuss the contribution of mesoscale convective systems (MCS) to these events. We defined regions based on the climatological rainfall distribution. Cases with rain values above the 99th percentile during 2012–2016 were considered statistically extreme. Our analysis is based on three datasets, with precipitation from (i) rain gauge stations, (ii) different satellite-based estimates, and (iii) mesoscale convective tracking data. The methodology was based on identifying extreme rainfall events, analyzing the performance of satellite precipitation estimates and, finally, quantifying the influence of convective systems on extreme rain. Although all regions of Brazil may be affected by natural disasters caused by extreme rains, the results suggest that the impacts caused in each region are different in magnitude. Convective systems explained over 90% of extreme rains in the case analyzed in Brazil’s south and about 60% to 90% of extreme rains in the case analyzed in the Northeast. In general, satellite products have identified rain events; however, in the southern region of Brazil, products have tended to overestimate rainfall, while other regions have tended to underestimate extreme rain values. The methods used in satellite precipitation estimation products have limitations to accurately identifying specific extreme rain events.

Comparison of Satellite Precipitation Products: IMERG and GSMaP with Rain Gauge Observations in Northern China

Extreme precipitation events have increasingly happened at global and regional scales as the global climate has changed in recent decades. Accurate quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) plays an important role in the warning of extreme precipitation events. With hourly rain gauge observations as a reference, this study compares the performance of Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission (IMERG) and Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) products over Northern China in 2021. The Probability of Detection (POD), Relative Bias (RB), Root-Mean-Squared Error (RMSE), and Fractional Standard Error (FSE) are among the assessment metrics, as are the Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), and Critical Success Index (CSI). We examined the spatial distribution of cumulative precipitation and the temporal distribution of hourly average precipitation for three severe precipitation occurrences using these assessment metrics. The IMERG products capture strong precipitation centers that are compatible with the gauge observations, especially in extreme precipitation events in areas with relatively flat terrain and low-altitude (≤1000 m). Both IMERG (National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NASA) and GSMaP (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, JAXA) satellite-based QPE products have precipitation peaks in advance (2–4 h) and generally underestimate (overestimate) precipitation when the actual precipitation is heavy (light). The satellite-based QPE products generally overestimate the heavy rainfall caused by non-typhoons and underestimate the heavy rainfall caused by typhoons. The GSMaP products may have the capacity to detect short-term rainstorm events. The accuracy of satellite-based QPE products may be influenced by precipitation intensity, sensors, terrain, and other variables. Therefore, in accordance with our recommendations, more ground rainfall stations should be used to collect actual precipitation data in regions with high levels of spatial heterogeneity and complex topography. The data programmers should strengthen the weights computation retrieval technique and fully utilize infrared (IR)-based data. Furthermore, this study is expected to give helpful feedback to the algorithm developers of IMERG and GSMaP products, as well as those researchers into the use of IMERG and GSMaP satellite-based QPE products in applications.

Attention-Unet-Based Near-Real-Time Precipitation Estimation from Fengyun-4A Satellite Imageries

Reliable near-real-time precipitation estimation is crucial for scientific research and resistance to natural disasters such as floods. Compared with ground-based precipitation measurements, satellite-based precipitation measurements have great advantages, but precipitation estimation based on satellite is still a challenging issue. In this paper, we propose a deep learning model named Attention-Unet for precipitation estimation. The model utilizes the high temporal, spatial and spectral resolution data of the FY4A satellite to improve the accuracy of precipitation estimation. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model, we compare it with operational near-real-time satellite-based precipitation products and deep learning models which proved to be effective in precipitation estimation. We use classification metrics such as Probability of detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Critical success index (CSI), and regression metrics including Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Pearson correlation coefficient (CC) to evaluate the performance of precipitation identification and precipitation amounts estimation, respectively. Furthermore, we select an extreme precipitation event to validate the generalization ability of our proposed model. Statistics and visualizations of the experimental results show the proposed model has better performance than operational precipitation products and baseline deep learning models in both precipitation identification and precipitation amounts estimation. Therefore, the proposed model has the potential to serve as a more accurate and reliable satellite-based precipitation estimation product. This study suggests that applying an appropriate deep learning algorithm may provide an opportunity to improve the quality of satellite-based precipitation products.

Evaluating the accuracy of two satellite-based Quantitative Precipitation Estimation products and their application for meteorological drought monitoring over the Lake Victoria Basin, East Africa

ABSTRACT This study evaluates the high-resolution satellite estimated long-term precipitation data for monitoring the drought condition over the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) from 1984 to 2020. Standardized Precipitation Indices (SPI) were used to capture the short, medium and long-term meteorological drought conditions at multiple time scales (i.e. 3, 6, and 12). For these, the following two primaries Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPEs) products were employed – 1) Climate Hazards group Infra-Red Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS), and 2) the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Network -Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR). This dataset was compared based on the observation data obtained from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) over the nine selected regions surrounding lake basins. The performance of these two QPEs products was evaluated using seven statistical metrics. The findings of this study indicate that the CHIRPS and PERSIANN-CDR datasets could capture the behavior of drought magnitude based on the time scale of SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12. The results indicate that 2012 and 2017 are significant severe drought years in the recent decade over LVB. However, the CHIRPS datasets provide good agreement (Correlation Coefficient (CC) = 0.65) with observation, whereas PERSIANN-CDR present satisfactory results (CC = 0.54). In addition, Hurst (H) exponent was used to predict the future drought trend and found that the CHIRPS performed well to predict the degree of drought trend. Therefore, this study considers the CHIRPS product for near-real-time drought monitoring and PERSIANN-CDR for historical drought assessment. Moreover, the outcome from the H values is greater than 0.5, which indicates the future drought trend would be decreased over LVB. These results are useful for developing the strategies for drought hazards and water resource management in LVB.

Rainfall Estimation From TEMPEST-D CubeSat Observations: A Machine-Learning Approach

In this study, a machine-learning model was used to produce surface rainfall estimates from Temporal Experiment for Storms and Tropical Systems &#x2013; Demonstration (TEMPEST-D) microwave radiance observations from a CubeSat. The machine-learning model is based on an artificial neural network (ANN). The space-borne TEMPEST-D sensor performed brightness temperature (TB) observations at five frequencies (i.e., 87, 164, 174, 178, and 181 GHz) during its nearly three-year mission. The TEMPEST-D TBs were used as inputs, and the multiradar&#x002F;multisensor system (MRMS) radar-only quantitative precipitation estimation product at the surface was used as the ground truth to train the ANN model. A total of 19 storms were identified that were simultaneously observed by TEMPEST-D and ground weather radar over the contiguous United States. The training dataset used 14 of the 19 storm cases. The other five storm cases, consisting of three continental storms and two land-falling hurricanes, were used for independent testing. A spatial alignment algorithm was developed to align the TEMPEST-D observed storm with the ground radar measurement of the storm. This study showed that the TEMPEST-D TBs captured storm features as well as current-generation satellite sensors, such as the global precipitation mission microwave imager. The results of this study demonstrated that the rainfall estimated from TEMPEST-D matches well with the MRMS surface rainfall product in terms of rainfall intensity, area, and precipitation system pattern. The average structural similarity index measure score for the five independent test cases is 0.78.

Assessing the accuracy and drought utility of long-term satellite-based precipitation estimation products using the triple collocation approach

Satellite-based precipitation products (SPP) have been the focus of much attention for their potential utility of drought monitoring and analysis. Assessing the accuracy and drought performance of the SPPs for ungauged areas is urgent and also challenging. This study comprehensively investigated the performance of the triple collocation (TC) approach, an assessment approach requiring no benchmark data, the accuracy and drought utility assessment of the SPPs. Furthermore, we applied the TC approach experimentally to the SPPs throughout mainland China. The China monthly Precipitation Analysis Product (CPAP), a gridded gauge-based precipitation dataset, was employed to validate the TC approach. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of the TC approach in retrieving spatial patterns in the accuracy and drought performance (via short-timescale drought indices) of the SPPs, but systematic bias was observed. Moreover, the TC approach exhibits a weak performance in assessing the long-timescale drought indices. By comparing the assessment results, the TC approach reveals the potential underestimation of the SPP accuracy by the traditional assessment approach for some ungauged regions. In general, the proposed TC outperforms the traditional approach in qualitatively assessing the performance pattern of SPPs over ungauged and poorly gauged areas, but the systematic bias of TC needs attention when quantitatively determining SPP performance.

Cross Validation of GOES-16 and NOAA Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) QPE over the Continental United States

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R (GOES-R) series provides new opportunities for continuous observation of precipitation at large scales with a high resolution. An operational quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) product has been produced based on multi-channel measurements from the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) aboard the GOES-16 (formerly known as GOES-R). This paper presents a comprehensive evaluation of this GOES-16 QPE product against a ground reference QPE product from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system over the continental United States (CONUS) during the warm seasons of 2018 and 2019. For the first time, the accuracy of GOES-16 QPE product was quantified using the gauge-corrected MRMS (GC-MRMS) QPE product, and a number of evaluation metrics were applied to adequately resolve the associated errors. The results indicated that precipitation occurrence and intensity estimated by the GOES-16 QPE agreed with GC-MRMS fairly well over the eastern United States (e.g., the probability of detection was close to 1.0, and the Pearson’s correlation coefficient was 0.80 during September 2019), while the discrepancies were noticeable over the western United States (e.g., the Pearson’s correlation coefficient was 0.64 for the same month). The performance of GOES-16 QPE was downgraded over the western United States, in part due to the limitations of the GOES-16 rainfall retrieval algorithm over complex terrains, and in part because of the poor radar coverage analyzed by the MRMS system. In addition, it was found that the GOES-16 QPE product significantly overestimated rainfall induced by the mesoscale convective systems in the midwestern United States, which must be addressed in the future development of GOES satellite rainfall retrieval algorithms.

New Insights Into Error Decomposition for Precipitation Products

AbstractIt is very important to quantify errors of precipitation estimation products. However, the existing methods do not describe all error components and are therefore not comprehensive enough. In this study, we propose a four‐component error decomposition method (4CED) that decomposes the total errors of precipitation products into four independent parts: hit positive bias, hit negative bias, false bias, and missed bias. And we use it to evaluate the performance of the three latest satellite precipitation products in the eastern monsoon region of China. Our study reveals 4CED has apparent improvements compared with the previous method. Results also provide new insights for tracking error sources and quantifying the error magnitudes of precipitation products. Moreover, the proposed 4CED can be extended to different spatial and temporal scales. Our new method will not only contribute to product upgrades, but also provide guidance for potential applications.

Characteristics of Raindrop Size Distribution in Typhoon Nida (2016) before and after Landfall in Southern China from 2D Video Disdrometer Data

During the passage of Typhoon Nida, the raindrop size distribution parameters, the raindrop spectra, the shape and slope (μ–Λ) relationship, the radar reflectivity factor, and rain rate (Z–R) relationship were investigated based on a two-dimensional (2D) video disdrometer in Guangdong, China, from August 1 to 2, 2016. Due to the underlying surface difference between the ocean and land, this process was divided into two distinct periods (before landfall and after landfall). The characteristics of raindrop size distribution between the period before landfall and the period after landfall were quite distinct. The period after landfall exhibited higher concentrations of each size bin (particularly small drops) and wider raindrop spectral width than the period before landfall. Compared with the period before landfall, the period after landfall had a higher average mass-weighted mean diameter Dm that was smaller than those of other TCs from the same ocean (the Pacific). The μ–Λ relationship and Z–R relationship in this study were also compared with other TCs from the same ocean (the Pacific). This investigation of the microphysical characteristics of Typhoon Nida before landfall and after landfall may improve radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) products and microphysical schemes by providing useful information.