Pre-crisis Period Research Articles

A new approach to forecasting Islamic and conventional oil and gas stock prices

In order to make more informed investment decisions, it becomes increasingly critical to forecast stock prices. Given the abnormality of financial markets, predicting the stock market with high accuracy is challenging, necessitating the selection of a reliable method. This paper aims to predict oil and gas stocks in both Islamic and conventional markets before and during COVID-19 using a model based on recurrent long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. The study employs an LSTM network combined with maximum overlap discrete wavelet transformation (MODWT) to predict the Islamic oil and gas stocks (IOG) index as well as the conventional oil and gas stocks (COG) index. Data spanning from 2018.06.27 to 2021.11.23 is divided into two periods: pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19. Prediction accuracy is assessed using root mean square error (RMSE). The study reveals that the network forecasts both indices better during the crisis period than in normal conditions. Additionally, the model generates more accurate forecasts of COG than IOG in both periods across most scales. LSTM predicts COG more accurately at the long-term horizon of the pre-crisis period, whereas it only forecasts IOC at a medium-term horizon in the same market state. In the COVID-19 era, LSTM performs best at predicting both stock markets in the medium-term, but the longest-term forecast is the least accurate. These findings have important implications for investors trading in oil and gas stocks across different market conditions, as well as policymakers regulating oil and gas-related markets.

The effect of shadow economy on foreign direct investment: Empirical evidence in emerging market economies 1988-2018

This paper aims to examine the effect of shadow economy on foreign direct investment (FDI) in emerging market economies (EMEs) starting from 1988 to 2018. The error-correction model (ECM) is applied to estimate the dynamic panel data in the short run model, and for the long run model, this study applied ordinary panel data approach to both the fixed effect model (FEM) and the random effect model (REM). This study considers the global financial crisis of 1998 by dividing the estimation into three periods, i.e., pre-crisis, post-crisis, and all periods. The results show that shadow economy had a significantly negative effect on FDI inward both in the long run and the short run during the pre-crisis period, while economic growth, trade openness, policy rate, population, and infrastructure had various significant effects on FDI inward. The long-run estimation revealed that economic growth, policy rate, inflation, and the human development index (HDI) were all significant factors. Only the exchange rate, as one of efficiency-seeking motives and macroeconomic factors, has a significant role in FDI in EMEs. This analysis suggests that policymakers need to consider shadow economy along with investor motives and macroeconomic variables to provide more FDI, while investors need to consider the country’s advantages that could potentially provide a rate on return on investment.

Analysis of the Russian Market for Artificial Lung Ventilation Units

The medical industry is strategically important for the national economy and healthcare. The COVID-19 pandemic has shown the importance of local MedTech capacity and production facilities to meet the needs of the healthcare market. The purpose of the study is to conduct the analysis of the Russian market of artificial lung ventilation devices (ventilators). Materials and methods. The analysis of customs statistics data was carried out by the Ministry of Foreign Economic Activity of the Russian Federation (RF), the Federal Customs Service of Russia (FCS Russia), Federal Tax Service of Russia (FTS Russia), Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Federal Service for Supervision in the Sphere of Health Care (Roszdravnadzor) as well as the Commodity Nomenclature of Foreign Economic Activity (FEACN RF). During the study, statistical methods were used, as well as analysis and synthesis. The author determined the number of ventilator models present on the Russian market, the dynamics of their import and export volumes (during and after the COVID-19 pandemic) in the country context. Results. Up to 200 ventilator models from 87 vendors are represented on the RF market. The volume of imports of ventilators in 2022 amounted to $ 32.0 million (2.2 billion rubles). After a jump in imports during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021, the volume of deliveries fell to 43 million (-23% by 2019), and in 2022 the decline was 25% (-44% by 2019). In 2020, the imports volume of value of ventilators increased 6.5 times. In 2021, the volume of imports and exports immediately fell below the indicators of the pre-crisis period. Deliveries from Germany decreased by 52%, the USA — by 86%, Korea — by 98%, France — by 29%, Slovakia — by 36%, and from Sweden stopped altogether. China has increased the volume of imports, adding 81% by 2021, and Switzerland to 41%. The volume of exports amounted to $ 383 thousand (410 million rubles), including exports to the EAEU countries amounted to $ 88 thousand, exports to non-CIS countries decreased by 95% (from $ 6.7 million to $ 0.3 million in 2021-2022). Conclusion. The results of this study can be applied by Russian ventilator manufacturers to assess the growth potential, as well as by government authorities to set priorities for strategic development by segments of the medical devices market.

The structure of traumatic brain injury in the city of Rostov-on-Don during the new coronavirus infection COVID 19

Objective: to study the frequency and structure of traumatic brain injury in the pre-ovoid, covid and post-ovoid periods in Rostov-on-Don.Materials and methods: to study the frequency and structure of traumatic brain injury in three years from 2019 to 2021 (in the pre-ovoid, covid and post-ovoid periods) according to the neurosurgical department and the department of combined trauma of the Emergency Medical Hospital No. 2 in Rostov-on-Don. Data processing using the IBM SPSS Statictic program version 26.0 using the χ2-Pearson criterion, in pairwise a posteriori comparative analysis, the χ2-Pearson criterion with Yates correction and likelihood correction were used. If the significance level is p<0.05, the differences are statistically significant.Results: in the pre-crisis period (2019), household trauma prevailed, the total number of hospitalized with TBI was 1,322. Of these, concussions accounted for 71%, brain contusions accounted for 28%, diffuse brain injury — 1%, street injury — 6.9%, transport injury — 6.81% and intentional injury — 24.1%. In the covid period (2020), the total number of patients admitted to the department decreased by 24%. The structure of the injury remained unchanged (concussions in 70% of cases, brain contusions in 28%, diffuse brain injury in 2%). In 2021 (completion of covid restrictions), the number of inpatient patients with TBI remained reduced (by 23%), the ratio of concussions, bruises, diffuse brain injuries remained the same.Conclusions: during the period of social isolation, there was a decrease in the number of hospitalized with TBI, which coincides with global indicators. The end of the restrictions associated with the pandemic is also characterized by a decrease in the number of patients admitted to the hospital with TBI. At the same time, a decrease in the ratio of the number of hospitalizations to the total number of deaths from head injury in 2019 and 2020 should be taken into account. from 19.83 to 14.98 in the Rostov region (according to the Federal State Statistics Service on the number of deaths from head injuries in 2019-2020), which reflects the level of accessibility of medical care. There was also a significant decrease in household, street, transport, school, sports and intentional types of TBI (p<0.05), while occupational injuries and trauma, the circumstances of which are unknown, did not significantly differ from the pre-pandemic indicators. Taking into account these results will improve the organization of emergency and emergency medical care for patients with TBI.

Green bonds forecasting: evidence from pre-crisis, Covid-19 and Russian–Ukrainian crisis frameworks

PurposeWithout precedent, green bonds confront, for the first time since their emergence, a twofold crisis context, namely the Covid-19-Russian–Ukrainian crisis period. In this context, this paper aims to investigate the connectedness between the two pioneering bond market classes that are conventional and treasury, with the green bonds market.Design/methodology/approachIn their forecasting target, authors use a Support Vector Regression model on daily S&P 500 Green, Conventional and Treasury Bond Indexes for a year from 2012 to 2022.FindingsAuthors argue that conventional bonds could better explain and predict green bonds than treasury bonds for the three studied sub-periods (pre-crisis period, Covid-19 crisis and Covid-19-Russian–Ukrainian crisis period). Furthermore, conventional and treasury bonds lose their forecasting power in crisis framework due to enhancements in market connectedness relationships. This effect makes spillovers in bond markets more sensitive to crisis and less predictable. Furthermore, this research paper indicates that even if the indicators of the COVID-19 crisis have stagnated and the markets have adapted to this rather harsh economic framework, the forecast errors persist higher than in the pre-crisis phase due to the Russian–Ukrainian crisis effect not yet addressed by the literature.Originality/valueThis study has several implications for the field of green bond forecasting. It not only illuminates the market participants to the best market forecasters, but it also contributes to the literature by proposing an unadvanced investigation of green bonds forecasting in Crisis periods that could help market participants and market policymakers to anticipate market evolutions and adapt their strategies to period specificities.

Characteristics of Croatian News Portals Reporting on the COVID-19 Pandemic in 2020 in the Pre-crisis Period

Public health crisis provoked by the COVID-19 pandemic is the issue that marked 2020 the most from various angles, as well as the communication one. This paper examines media echo of COVID-19 pandemic crisis in pre-crisis time in Croatia, before the first registered case of the infection. The most important result of the performed research is that the media coverage of the analyzed news portals in critical period may be valued as credible because the media releases used multiple sources and the authorship was transparent. Group of actors that in pre-crisis gained the most visibility were politicians. Research also demonstrated that news portals emphasized numerical data concerning crisis in media releases, while explicitly marking the situation with the word ‘crisis’ did not occur in large-scale.

Did Precious Metals Serve as Hedge and Safe-haven Alternatives to Equity During the COVID-19 Pandemic: New Insights Using a Copula-based Approach

We examine the hedging and safe-haven characteristics of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium and three major indices in the US market. The metal markets are known for their hedging characteristics during financial distress. This article sheds new insights using high-frequency data into precious metals’ hedging and safe-haven abilities under extreme market volatility conditions attributed to the COVID-19 crisis using the copula method. The results show that gold outperforms all other precious metals in hedging and as a safe haven under extreme stock market conditions, in both the pre-crisis and crisis periods, with silver as the next best alternative. JEL codes: G01, G11, G15, G19

Turbulent Periods, Earnings Management and the Role of Auditors

The present study attempts to test the impact of audit, non-­audit fees, auditor tenure, auditor size, and financial distress on earnings management during turbulent periods for the five largest Eurozone countries. The motivation of the current study is to provide fresh evidence on these relationships during global financial crisis and sovereign debt crisis. We use the generalized methods of moments and ordinary least squares method for a sample of listed firms across the five largest Eurozone countries. We found that auditor tenure and auditor size carry no significant effect on earnings management during the financial crisis and sovereign debt crisis period as compared to the pre-crisis period for both cases. However, audit, non-audit fees and financial distress affect earnings management during the Eurozone crises periods. The results imply that stricter accounting regulation is needed during turbulent periods and investors should be careful with their investments.

BEHAVIORS RELATED TO PRIMARY SCHOOL PRINCIPALS' CRISIS MANAGEMENT SKILLS: IN THE CONTEXT OF THE FEBRUARY 6TH 2023 EARTHQUAKE

In the face of the unpredictable nature of crises, it is expected that school principals exhibit behaviors aimed at maintaining the psychological well-being of teachers, students, and parents along with the educational processes. The sudden occurrence of the February 6, 2023 earthquakes, has presented an important crisis situation in which school principals are expected to display the desired behaviors. This research aims to reveal to what extent school principals demonstrated their crisis management skills in the context of the February 6, 2023 earthquake and what behaviors they exhibited during crisis management processes, based on teachers' opinions. The research was carried out with a mixed method approach in which quantitative and qualitative research methods were used together. The sample of the research consisted of 295 teachers, and the study group consisted of 18 teachers selected from the same sample by purposeful sampling method. Quantitative data of the research were collected using the crisis management scale, and qualitative data were collected using a semi-structured interview form. According to the quantitative results of the research, it was determined that the crisis management skill levels of school principals were "mostly" in the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods, and "sometimes" during the crisis period. When teachers' opinions were examined, it was seen that school principals were unprepared for crises arising from natural disasters such as earthquakes and that they mostly followed the Ministry of National Education guidelines and therefore lacked initiative. School principals who were able to take initiative took action to support the psychological health of teachers, students and parents by meeting their needs and gained their trust. Keywords: crisis management, school principals' crisis management behaviors, February 6th,2023 earthquakes.

Does crude oil price volatility respond asymmetrically to financial shocks?

Recent literature has explored the effect of monetary and financial shocks, along with oil supply and global demand shocks, in determining oil price volatility. This paper elucidates whether the change in oil price volatility in response to financial shocks differs over quantiles over the period 1993–2021. First, we disintegrate the structural innovations to oil price volatility, originating from crude oil production, global demand, oil demand, oil inventories, interest rates, and financial market volatility, using the SVAR approach during pre-crisis and post-crisis phases. Furthermore, using quantile autoregressive distributed lag models (QARDL) and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) models, we analyze the plausible asymmetric effects of these shocks. The findings indicate the significance of supply-side and global demand shocks on oil price volatility in the pre-crisis periods, followed by the increase in the explanatory power of financial shocks on oil price volatility after the crisis. It also suggests that oil price volatility responds asymmetrically to oil supply, inventories, and financial shocks.

Analysing the Impact of Major Financial Crisis on Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Prices: An Empirical Study of Stock Market of United Kingdom

The research paper empirically tests the impact of major financial crisis of 2008 by testing the causality between five macroeconomic variables (interest rate, inflation, money supply, GDP and exchange rate), the FTSE All-Share index and its sectoral indices. Furthermore, it analyses whether the global financial crisis of 2008 affected the direction of the causality or not. For this purpose the causality tests were performed in two sections one on the data for the pre financial crisis period from 1999 to 2007 and another on the data for post financial crisis period from 2008 to 2022. The causality was tested using the quantile Granger causality test, the research findings reveal the complex causality between the UK stock market and the most prevalent macroeconomic factors. The findings of the research are suggestive that the causality between macroeconomic factors changed from pre-crisis period to post-crisis period. This is indicative of the event sensitivity of the stock market of UK. It was found that the direction of this causality varies according to the circumstances of the economy and across different sectors involved, and particular economic conditions at various times. The findings of this research provide important insights for policymakers, investors, and economic analysts, as they shed light on the dynamic and complex relationship between the indicators, both on an aggregate and sectoral level. The research findings also emphasise the importance of considering the variables' distribution when analysing the issue of causality.

Финансовое заражение российского фондового рынка от европейского в период пандемии COVID-19

This paper investigates the transmission of financial contagion from the European to the Russian stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic. Financial contagion refers to the spread of instability and shocks across individual countries, sectors, or markets during a crisis, where the relationship between returns and volatility of different assets goes beyond normal interactions. Using the construction of extended autoregressive models, we test the contagion of the RTSI composite index from the EURO STOXX 50 index, with the US dollar exchange rate and the spot price of Urals crude oil serving as control variables. The calculation of the moving coefficient of variation in assets prices allows us to distinguish the pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis periods, for which three separate autoregressive models are built. The contagion of the Russian stock market from the European stock market in these models is identified in two ways: 1) based on the growth and significance of estimated coefficient for the tested variable (STOXX 50 index return) during the crisis; 2) through an increase in the contribution of the tested variable to the explained variance of the dependent variable (RTSI return). In addition, we tested contagion based on the method of central co-moments of the distribution of returns, skewness and volatility of the tested and dependent variable. The analysis has convincingly demonstrated the existence of a financial contagion effect from the European stock market to the Russian stock market in the short term — strengthening of the impact of the European STOXX 50 index on the Russian RTSI index in the acute phase of the pandemic. Understanding the factors contributing to the spread of market shocks in the context of financial globalization can help policymakers to implement effective financial regulatory measures and maintain long-term financial stability in line with national interests. For investors, it helps to identify potential risks and opportunities, enabling optimal hedging and diversification response strategies.

Time-varying risk spillovers between renewable energy and Islamic stock markets: Evidence from the Russia-Ukraine conflict

This paper examines the downside and upside risk spillovers between renewable energy and Islamic stock markets before and during the Russia-Ukraine crisis. We employ the VAR-ADCC model and conditional value at risk (CoVaR) techniques to estimate downside and upside risk spillovers. The results show that the risk spillovers are asymmetric for the majority of cases, but the degree of asymmetry varies across distributions and sub-samples before and during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Specifically, the downside and upside risk spillover magnitude is not significant between renewable energy and Islamic stock markets of Malaysia, Turkey, and India during the Russia-Ukraine war compared to the pre-crisis period. These results imply that renewable energy markets are not sensitivitive to the Islamic stock markets of the three countries (Malaysia, Turkey, and India) during the Russia-Ukraine war. Our findings also imply that the Canadian Islamic stock markets provide diversification opportunities against renewable energy during the extreme downside risk spillovers. These findings provide interesting insights to portfolio managers and policymakers regarding important decisions like portfolio construction, hedging, and market stability.

Unravelling the relationship between employment, social transfers and income poverty: Policy and measurement

Despite the rise in employment, consistently high EU-average poverty rates continue to generate debates about the factors that explain the level and changes in the relative poverty rate, both within and across countries. Assuming a strong negative correlation between poverty and employment, the article investigates the role of four mechanisms responsible for this blurred relationship. Using decomposition analysis and macro-level regression analysis, we investigate the extent to which (i) the distribution of employment across households with different levels of work intensity, (ii) the expansion of non-standard work, (iii) the change in the effectiveness of social welfare systems, and (iv) the change in median income and the corresponding shift in the poverty threshold have contributed to changes in relative income poverty in the last decades. We found that employment growth benefits poverty reduction, but this positive effect was partially offset by the precarious characteristics of some newly created jobs. If the distribution of jobs had favoured the jobless more in the pre-crisis period, the relative income poverty rate would have been lower. Although the share of persons in jobless households decreased during the recovery years, their risk of poverty increased due to the retrenchment of social transfers during and after the Great Recession. Furthermore, the use of a floating threshold, which is linked to changes in median income, underestimates the strength of the relationships between poverty, employment and social transfers: when the poverty threshold is kept fixed, not only do the dynamics of poverty look different, but the estimated coefficients are considerably larger.

Crisis-driven digitalization and academic success across disciplines.

While the rapid digitalization in higher education, accelerated by the COVID-19 pan- demic, has restructured the landscape of teaching and learning, a comprehensive under- standing of its implications on students' academic outcomes across various academic disciplines remains unexplored. This study, therefore, aims to fill this gap by providing an in-depth examination of the effects of crisis-driven digitalization on student performance, specifically the shift to emergency remote education during the COVID-19 crisis. Lever- aging a panel dataset encompassing 82,694 individual student course grades over a span of six years, we explore the effects of digitalization across nationalities, educational levels, genders, and crucially, academic disciplines. Our findings are threefold: (i) firstly, we note that crisis-driven digitalization significantly impacted students' chances of passing a course and achieving higher course grades in comparison to the pre-crisis period. (ii) Secondly, we found the effect to be heterogeneous across disciplines. Notably, practical disciplines, such as nursing, experienced a negative impact from this sudden shift, in contrast to more theoretical disciplines such as business administration or mathematics, which saw a positive effect. (iii) Lastly, our results highlight significant variations in the impact based on educational levels and nationalities. Master's students had a harder time adapting to the digital shift than their bachelor counterparts, while international students faced greater challenges in less international academic environments. These insights underscore the need for strategic interventions tailored to maximize the potential of digital learning across all disciplines and student demographics. The study aims to guide educators and policymakers in creating robust digital learning environments that promote equitable outcomes and enhance students' learning experiences in the digital age.

COVID 19 and regional entrepreneurship: which regional features can mitigate the devastating effects of COVID-19?

ABSTRACT Given the assumption that entrepreneurship is context-dependent and embedded in spatial features, the severity of the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on entrepreneurship may vary significantly across regions. This study, which is the first in the literature, categorizes 81 NUTS III level regions in Türkiye according to their entrepreneurship levels and examines how and to what extent regional characteristics determine entrepreneurship patterns, using MANOVA-ANOVA and Discriminant Function Analysis (DFA). Inspired by the resilience literature, it tries to reveal which regional attributes are more effective in keeping entrepreneurship resilient against shocks by comparing the pre-crisis (2012) and crisis periods (2020). Revealing critical differences between the pre-crisis and crisis periods, the article shows that population density, positive migration, high education levels, sectoral diversity, government incentives and natural geographical features, such as altitude and precipitation, are vital for regional entrepreneurship to remain resilient against COVID-19. Additionally, high population growth, young population rate, financial capital and income level, developed production, innovation, transportation and communication infrastructure combined with strong international networks and suitable climatic conditions are critical determinants that encourage regional entrepreneurship. On the contrary, specialization in certain sectors appears to be a regional weakness.

Analyzing the market performance of Romanian firms: do the COVID-19 crisis and classification type matter?

PurposeStock market performance is paramount to every country, as it signifies economic growth, business performance, wealth maximization, savings deployment and consumer confidence. This study investigates the disparities in the market performance of listed firms in Romania. This study also examines whether the COVID-19 crisis affected market performance.Design/methodology/approachThe data were collected from 69 firms listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE) from 2018 to 2022, belonging to 11 sectors. This study used several methods to achieve its objectives. Difference tests were considered to analyze the performance of Romanian companies before and during the COVID-19 crisis, as well as across sectors. Regression analysis was also conducted to estimate the effect of the COVID-19 crisis and classification type on Romanian companies' performance. Additional analyses were performed to verify the findings of the present study.FindingsThe study’s findings indicate a clear difference in market performance between the pre-crisis and crisis periods. The COVID-19 pandemic had an adverse and significant impact on market performance. However, after the market contraction in the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, the stock market outperformed the pre-pandemic capitalization levels and the regional and global indices evolution. Furthermore, there was a difference in market performance across sectors. In particular, the communication services sector has specifically demonstrated accelerated growth.Originality/valueThis research examines the variation in the market performance of companies before and during the COVID-19 pandemic and across different sectors. It also provides evidence of the potential impact of COVID-19 on firms' market performance. This research contributes to a better understanding of how sectors perform during times of crisis.

Prevalence and Time Trends of Low Serum B12 Levels and Inadequate B12 Dietary Intake in Lebanese Adults amidst the Food Insecurity Situation: Findings from a Nationally Representative Cross-Sectional Study.

Rising food insecurity (FI) and the increased prices of animal-based foods could compromise vitamin B12 (B12) intake and serum levels in food-insecure people. Our study aims to determine the prevalence of low levels of serum B12 and its inadequate dietary intake among a nationally representative sample of Lebanese adults aged 18 to 64 years, while exploring the impact of FI and identifying other potential predictors. The B12 intake was assessed using a food frequency questionnaire and the mean of two non-consecutive 24 h recalls. The B12 serum levels were also examined. To examine the time trends in the B12 serum levels and dietary intake, the data from a large representative digitized database of 6290 participants were collected, along with the examination of FAOSTAT food consumption data both before and during the economic crisis period. Our findings revealed that 47.3% of households in Lebanon experienced FI. The inadequate intake of B12 food sources was prevalent in 52.5% of participants, and 61.1% presented with low (23%) or intermediate (38.1%) levels of serum B12. The food-secure households had a higher proportion of B12 intake from meats (p = 0.004), while traditional foods contributed more to food-insecure households (p = 0.000). The participants who were female, unemployed, food-insecure, and had low dietary diversity were about two to three times more likely to have inadequate B12 intake. The predictors of low levels of serum B12 included residing in Beqaa (OR = 2.856 and 95% CI = 1.018-8.01) and having inadequate B12 intake (OR = 1.788 and 95% CI = 1.2-2.65). The findings from observing the time trends in the consumption and the serum levels of B12 indicate a considerable decline in the consumption of most animal-based foods compared to the pre-crisis period, associated with a decline in the serum levels of B12. In conclusion, an alarming prevalence of low dietary intake and low serum levels of B12 was revealed among Lebanese adults, and the indirect effect of FI on B12 serum levels mediated through B12 intake was inferred.

Determining the investors' strategy during the COVID-19 crisis based on the S&P 500 stock index

Background: The most significant changes caused by the COVID-19 crisis were the sharp increase in working from home and the growing importance of e-commerce, which affected the development of some industries. This change also affects the investors' investment operations, which are based on analysis to ensure an unquestionable certainty of the invested financial amount and a satisfactory return. It is, therefore, interesting to analyze the possible return of the chosen investment strategy based on the optimization model of portfolio selection based on the CVaR risk measure. Purpose: The paper aims to present the possible use of the analysis of returns of effective portfolios constructed based on the optimization model of portfolio selection based on the CVaR risk measure during the crisis (COVID19) and the pre-crisis period. Study design/methodology/approach: Paper presents the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on investor decision-making through the CVaR risk measure, which was implemented on the historical data of the components of the Standard and Poor's 500 stock index (S&P 500) in the crisis period as well as in the pre-crisis period. Findings/conclusions: The presented approach based on the CVaR risk rate measure and the relevant portfolio selection model provides the investor with an effective tool for allocating funds to the financial market in particular segments in both monitored periods. Limitations/future research: Time series data are divided into two periods based on visible factors such as the number of COVID-19 cases. In future research, we aim to divide monitored periods based on unobservable factors influencing investors' decisions, such as bull or bear mood on the market.

Entrepreneurial (re)orientation in the face of crisis: Is it worth modifying entrepreneurial strategy?

PURPOSE: This article aims to determine how companies in the SME sector modify their business strategies in response to changes in the external environment. The research focused on modifications to entrepreneurial strategies expressed through the fundamental dimensions of entrepreneurial orientation (EO): risk-taking, innovativeness, and proactiveness. Additionally, it identified which types of reactions (modifications in strategies) lead to the most favorable changes in firm performance. The external environment was determined based on the market situation that resulted from the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODOLOGY: This is quantitative research. The study utilized data from 126 small printing businesses operating throughout Poland. Analyses were conducted on the data that reflected modifications in entrepreneurial behaviors and performance during three periods: the pre-crisis period, the initial phase of the crisis (the full lockdown period), and the second phase of the crisis (the period of easing the restrictions). The identification of the behavior types was carried out using cluster analysis. FINDINGS: The results of the research led to the conclusion that, with a change in market conditions, companies significantly change their levels of EO. In particular, the surveyed companies reduced their levels of EO during the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, this decrease was mainly due to significant decreases in risk-taking. The levels of EO increased when the conditions improved due to significant increases in innovativeness and proactiveness. Moreover, the analysis enabled the identification of four types of reactions to the emergence of the crisis as well as three types of reactions to the improvement of the external conditions that resulted from the easing of restrictions and the introduction of anti-crisis support measures for businesses. Additionally, it was demonstrated that the type of reaction had a significant impact on the changes in the performances of the examined companies. In particular, it was shown that the lowest decline in performance during the initial phase of crisis could be observed in passive enterprises, i.e., those that did not modify their entrepreneurial strategies (did not alter their levels of individual dimensions of EO). The greatest increase in performance was achieved during the period of easing restrictions by those companies that significantly enhanced their activities across all of the considered dimensions of EO. IMPLICATIONS: The research results provided insights for entrepreneurs in strategic management. Specifically, they learned about the modifications in entrepreneurial behaviors that could lead to the most favorable and optimal improvements in a firm’s performance when market conditions change. ORIGINALITY AND VALUE: The study contributes to the literature concerning reactions to changes in market conditions. This innovative approach considers dynamics where the changes themselves are variables. In particular, this research identifies types of entrepreneurial reactions to market condition changes in terms of dimensions of entrepreneurial orientation. Furthermore, it provides an answer to how firm performance evolved regarding various reaction types (using the example of the printing industry).