Pre-announcement Effects Research Articles

Information content of sustainability index recomposition: A synthetic portfolio approach

A firm’s inclusion on the Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI) signals its leadership in Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG). We studied the effects of DJSI inclusion using data through 2021. For additions, we found significant positive pre-announcement effects, as well as persistence of positive abnormal returns. On deletions, we also saw positive abnormal returns, although significance reduced in later years. Our analysis demonstrated a stronger information role of DJSI inclusion for non-S&P 500 firms, which suggests that the DJSI is relatively more important for firms with lower investor recognition. We used a generalised synthetic control approach to estimate our results, which responds to the parallel trends critique of stock return event studies and provides robustness to industry shocks that are so important to ESG applications. Thus, this paper represents an important extension to our understanding of the value relevance of DJSI membership.

The Impact of a Revenue-Neutral Carbon Tax on GDP Dynamics: The Case of British Columbia

We study the impact over time of revenue-neutral-designed carbon taxes on GDP in the Canadian province of British Columbia (B.C.). The tax is broad-based, and all rate hikes and their timings were pre-announced. Our time series approach accounts for these pre-announcement effects, as well as for the possible saliency of the tax. Estimated impulse response functions and statistical comparisons of GDP dynamics in the presence and (counterfactual) absence of carbon taxes lead to the same result. Overall, revenue-neutral carbon taxation has no significant negative impacts on GDP. Our setup also allows us to examine the extent of the carbon tax pass-through into energy prices. We find that pass-through is complete. We conclude that implementing revenue-neutral carbon taxation contributes to lowering harmful greenhouse gases into the atmosphere without hurting the economy.

Do buzz and evidence really matter in product preannouncements? An empirical test of two competing theories

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate if product pre-announcement effects measured using stock market returns conform to the predictions of two competing consumer marketing theories. In particular, while buzz marketing theory indicates a direct positive effect, information asymmetry theory suggests an influence contingent upon evidence. The study also investigates whether a pecking order of performance effects exists across different signaling situations.Design/methodology/approachThe final sample consists of 219 product-preannouncements reported in the Wall Street Journal between 2005 and 2015. The standard event study methodology was used to test for performance effects.FindingsThe results show that preannouncements with evidence alone significantly outperform those with buzz alone, and announcements containing buzz and evidence. Also, buzz acts as a salient moderator of the relationship between evidence and performance. In addition, company size also affects the evidence-performance relationship, with smaller firms benefiting more from evidence than larger firms.Research limitations/implicationsThe event study method assumes efficient markets and deals with publicly traded companies.Practical implicationsManagers can allocate resources wisely by deciding whether to invest in evidence or buzz in their pre-announcements.Originality/valueIn contrast to extant research that primarily investigates contingency effects, this study identifies how an important moderator, i.e. buzz affects performance.

Market Reaction to News and Investor Attention in Real Time

This paper develops a new framework to study investor attention in real time at high frequency. Using information retrieval approach, we construct a proxy for attention from the Twitter messages of financial experts, hedge funds and portfolio managers around the release of unscheduled news announcements. We then examine how markets react to new information in the absence and presence of attention. On implementing our methodology with high-frequency data for large-cap U.S. stocks, we find evidence that news events receiving attention on social media lead to large and persistent changes in trading activity, volatility and price jumps. When the attention is limited, however, the news effects on such trading patterns tend to be smaller and vanish quickly. With respect to reaction timing, we find that approximately one fourth of the news stories arrive first on Twitter before being reported by Bloomberg newswire. This result suggests that movements prior to news releases may not be explained only by private information, but could also be related to timestamp delays. We control for such potential biases by incorporating attention and correcting newswire timestamps. This adjustment considerably eliminates the pre-announcement effects in the data.

To Preannounce or Not: New Product Development in a Competitive Duopoly Market

In this study, we consider the issue of preannouncing or not preannouncing the development of a new product. Our research is motivated by contrasting views in the literature and varying actions observed in practice. We develop and analyze a game theoretic model that examines the effect of a firm's preannouncement of its product development. Our model is based on a durable goods duopoly market with profit‐maximizing firms. The first firm is an innovator who initially begins developing the product; the second firm is an imitator that begins developing a competing product as soon as it becomes aware of the innovator's product. We assume that consumers are rationally expectant and purchase at most one unit of the product when they have maximum positive utility surplus that is determined by the characteristics of the product, the consumer's marginal utility, and the consumer's discounted utility for future expected products. The innovator firm can release information about its product when it begins developing the product or can guard information about its product until it introduces the product into the market. Our analysis and numerical tests show that, under some conditions, the innovator firm can benefit by preannouncing its product and giving the imitator firm additional time to differentiate its product. We discuss these conditions and their implications for new product development efforts.

The Impact of the Interest Rate on Insurance/Financials Industries: The Analysis of the Stock Market's Reactions to Federal Funds Rate Changes

Taking an event-study approach, this article examines the impact of the interest rate on the insurance industry and its subindustries in contrast with other financials industries through the analysis of the stock market's reactions to federal funds rate changes. In addition to calculating the stock market's reaction on event days, this article analyzes market over- or underreaction by examining the stock market's responses on the following days. Furthermore, the stock market's reaction on days preceding event days is explored to test pre-announcement effects. This article also investigates asymmetries in responses of insurance and financials stock markets to certain characteristics of federal rate changes. This research provides important insights to investors, regulators and policymakers, and the management of insurance and financials companies in understanding the link between monetary policy and asset prices and the policy transmission mechanism particularly related to insurance and financials industries.

Supply-side Economics in the People's Republic of China's Regional Context: A Quantitative Investigation of Its VAT Reform

The People's Republic of China (PRC) has now decided to shift its value-added tax (VAT) from production-based to consumption-based. This transition is currently piloted in the three provinces of the northeast PRC, and is expected to be extended to the whole country in the coming 2 or 3 years. Using a two-region dynamic general equilibrium model with overlapping generations, this paper investigates the macroeconomic and welfare effects of the VAT transition in PRC. The distribution effects between generations are also analyzed to get a sense of public opinion toward the reform. We put special emphasis on the pace of reform by analyzing the pre-announcement effects and the inter-regional impacts of tax reform that began in one pilot region. The simulation results suggest large welfare gains from the VAT transition. However, the pilot reform in the northeast provinces, which delays the national implementation of consumption-based VAT, would involve substantial transitional costs for the rest of the PRC.

New Product Preannouncements and Shareholder Value: Don't Make Promises you Can't Keep

New product preannouncements are strategic signals that firms direct at their customers, competitors, channel members, and investors. They have been touted as effective means of deterring competitor entry, informing potential customers, and even tipping the balance of technological standard battles in favor of the preannouncing firms. However, preannouncements also carry the risks of unwanted competitive reaction and the negative consequences of undelivered promises. From a shareholder value standpoint, do the benefits outweigh the risks of preannouncing? To address this question, the authors build on agency and signaling theories to develop hypotheses about the effects of preannouncements on shareholder value, and they empirically test these hypotheses on a sample of software and hardware new product preannouncements. The findings indicate that the financial returns from preannouncements are significantly positive in the long run. The authors show that preannouncements generate positive short-term abnormal returns only for firms that offer specific information about the preannounced product. They also show that firms earn positive long-term abnormal returns after a preannouncement if they continue to update the market on the progress of the new product. Both the short-term and the long-term returns are further magnified if the reliability of the preannouncement (i.e., the credibility of the preannouncing firm) is high. The findings offer executives of preannouncing firms clear guidelines on how to manage communications in the market to extract financial value from new product preannouncements.

Unintended Effects of Preannouncements on Investor Reactions to Earnings News*

AbstractThis study uses an experiment to examine three alternative theoretical explanations for the unintended effects of preannouncements on investor reactions to earnings news. The theoretical explanations are cue consistency, recency effects, and diminishing marginal reactions. The experiment varies the amount of a management preannouncement at five different levels while holding constant consensus analyst expectations prior to the preannouncement and the subsequent earnings announcement. Participants provide preliminary forecasts of current‐ and next‐period earnings per share (EPS) prior to the preannouncement, after the preannouncement, and after the earnings announcement. The pattern of participants' final next‐year EPS forecasts and the results of follow‐up analyses appear most consistent with the predictions of diminishing marginal reactions and, to a somewhat lesser extent, cue consistency, suggesting that both mechanisms play a role in determining the effects of preannouncements. There is little evidence supporting recency effects. Finally, supplemental evidence indicates that participants are unaware that preannouncements influence their reactions to earnings news, suggesting that the effects are unintended. This study has implications for managers who make preannouncement disclosure decisions and for academics who wish to understand and interpret prior research on earnings preannouncements.

Strategic Product Pre-Announcements in Markets with Network Effects

It is a widely adopted practice for firms to announce new products well in advance of actual market availability. The incentives for pre-announcements are stronger in markets with network effects because they can be used to induce the delay of consumers' purchases and forestall the build-up of rival products' installed bases. However, such announcements often are not fulfilled, raising antitrust concerns. We analyze the effects of product pre-announcements in the presence of network effects when firms are allowed to strategically make false announcements. We also discuss their implications for consumer welfare and anti-trust policy.

Effects of Preannouncements on Analyst and Stock Price Reactions to Earnings News

This study examines the effects of earnings preannouncements on financial analyst and stock price reactions to earnings news. Prior experimental research documents that when the signs of a preannouncement surprise and subsequent earnings announcement surprise are consistent (i.e., both either positive or negative), analysts make larger magnitude revisions to their future period earnings forecasts in response to the total earnings news conveyed in the preannouncement and earnings announcement than when the surprise signs are inconsistent. This study extends this research by examining a sample of actual preannouncements from 1993–1997 to determine whether the effects documented in laboratory settings manifest at the aggregate market level in stock prices and consensus analyst forecast revisions. Results indicate that after controlling for the sign of earnings news, sign of earnings, and sign of the earnings announcement surprise, stock prices and analyst forecast revisions respond more strongly when a preannouncement and subsequent earnings announcement elicit the same surprise signs than when the surprise signs are inconsistent. Further analysis indicates that the consistency of the signs of a preannouncement surprise and earnings announcement surprise is not associated with future earnings, suggesting that the magnified reaction of investors and analysts to consistent surprise signs is not a rational reaction to associations observed in market settings.

PREANNOUNCED OPTIMAL TAX REFORM

In constitutional democracies, laws take time to be deliberated upon, to be passed, and to be implemented. Motivated by this observation, we study the properties of optimal tax reform when it has to be announced in advance of its implementation. We find that a delay between announcement and implementation has large effects on the optimal fiscal policy during the transition to the new steady state. On the other hand, we find that the welfare gains from optimal tax reform are fairly robust to the introduction of an implementation lag. Increasing the lag from zero to four years reduces the welfare gains by less than a quarter. Moreover, it turns out that this reduction of the welfare gain is mainly due to the delay itself rather than the effect of preannouncement on the character of the optimal tax reform.

The Dvd‐vs.‐Divx Standard War: Empirical Evidence of Network Effects and Preannouncement Effects

We test empirically for network effects and preannouncement effects in the DVD market. We do this by measuring the effect of potential (incompatible) competition on a network undergoing growth. We find that there are network effects. The data are generally consistent with the hypothesis that the preannouncement of DIVX temporarily slowed down the adoption of DVD technology.

The DVD-vs.-DIVX Standard War: Empirical Evidence of Network Effects and Preannouncement Effects

The DVD-vs.-DIVX Standard War: Empirical Evidence of Network Effects and Preannouncement Effects

The Effect of Voluntary Disclosure and Preemptive Preannouncements on Earnings Response Coefficients (ERC) When Firms Manage Earnings

We study analytically the effect of preliminary voluntary disclosure and preemptive preannouncement on the slope of the regression of returns on earnings surprise—the earnings response coefficient (ERC). When firms do not manage earnings, additional disclosure has no effect, and the ERC is proportional to price/permanent earnings ratio. If they manage earnings by attempting to inflate them, the response to (100% credible) negative earnings surprise is stronger than the response to (less than 100% credible) positive surprise. To avert litigation, firms that manage earnings adopt a partial voluntary disclosure strategy—either public revelation of good news and withholding bad news, or public revelation of bad news and withholding good news. Voluntary disclosure affects ERC on positive earnings surprise only, depending on what the firm reveals: the good- news revealing ERC (GRC) is higher than the bad-news revealing ERC (BRC), because good news enhances the credibility of the positive earnings surprise, even though the market discounts good news. Furthermore, preemptive pre-announcements improve ERC accuracy by narrowing the scope of earnings management.

Pre-announcement effects, news effects, and volatility: Monetary policy and the stock market

I examine pre-announcement and news effects on the stock market in the context of public disclosure of monetary policy decisions. The results suggest that the stock market tends to be relatively quiet – conditional volatility is abnormally low – on days preceding regularly scheduled policy announcements. Although this calming effect is routinely reported in anecdotal press accounts, it is statistically significant only over the past four to five years, a result that I attribute to changes in the Federal Reserve's disclosure practices in early 1994. The paper also looks at how the actual interest rate decisions of policy makers affect stock market volatility. The element of surprise in such decisions tends to boost stock market volatility significantly in the short run, and positive surprises – higher-than-expected values of the target federal funds rate – tend to have a larger effect on volatility than negative surprises. The implications of the results for broader issues in the finance and economics literatures are also discussed.

Pre-Announcement Effects, News, and Volatility: Monetary Policy and the Stock

I examine pre-announcement and news effects on the stock market in the context of public disclosure of monetary policy decisions. The results suggest that the stock market tends to be relatively quiet - conditional volatility is abnormally low - on days preceding regularly scheduled policy announcements. Although this calming effect is routinely reported in anecdotal press accounts, it is statistically significant only over the past four to five years, a result that I attribute to changes in the Federal Reserve's disclosure practices in early 1994. The paper also looks at how the actual interest rate decisions of policy makers affect stock market volatility. The element of surprise in such decisions tends to boost stock market volatility significantly in the short run, and positive surprises - higher-than-expected values of the target federal funds rate - tend to have a larger effect on volatility than negative surprises. The implications of the results for broader issues in the finance literature are also discussed.

Pre-Announcement Effects, News, and Volatility: Monetary Policy and the Stock Market

I examine pre-announcement and news effects on the stock market in the context of public disclosure of monetary policy decisions. The results suggest that the stock market tends to be relatively quiet--conditional volatility is abnormally low--on days preceding regularly scheduled policy announcements. Although this calming effect is routinely reported in anecdotal press accounts, it is statistically significant only over the past four to five years, a result that I attribute to changes in the Federal Reserve's disclosure practices in early 1994. The paper also looks at how the actual interest rate decisions of policy makers affect stock market volatility. The element of surprise in such decisions tends to boost stock market volatility significantly in the short run, and positive surprises--higher-than-expected values of the target federal funds rate--tend to have a larger effect on volatility than negative surprises. The implications of the results for broader issues in the finance literature are also discussed.

Balance of payments crises and fiscal adjustment measures

A model with optimizing firms and consumers is used to explore the effects of unannounced and preannounced fiscal adjustment policies that are intended to prevent an impending balance of payments crisis. It is shown that preannouncement unambiguously raises the required fiscal adjustment effort so that, from the government's point of view, “cold turkey” is the preferable policy. The effect of preannouncement on the private sector's adjustment cost is ambiguous since preannouncement induces an externality which may either benefit or harm the private sector, depending on the nature of the measure that is preannounced.