Powerful Predictor Of Mortality Research Articles

Clinical and imaging characteristics of patients with cardiac amyloidosis- a single center observational study

Amyloidosis is a disease characterized by the deposition of protein fibrils. Cardiac involvement is a significant factor in determining prognosis. This study aimed to examine the clinical profile, outcomes, and long-term mortality rates in patients with transthyretin (ATTR) and amyloid light-chain (AL) amyloidosis. The retrospective cohort study included 94 patients with amyloidosis (69 with AL and 25 with ATTR amyloidosis) diagnosed between 2010 and 2022. The study involved multimodality imaging (ECG, echocardiography and cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) data and survival analyses. Patients with ATTR amyloidosis were older and had a higher proportion of males compared to those with AL amyloidosis. Cardiac involvement was more prevalent in the ATTR group, including atrial fibrillation (AF), while pleural and pericardial effusion were more frequent in the AL group. Biomarkers such as NT-proBNP and troponin T were significantly elevated in both groups and were associated with all-cause mortality only in univariate analyses. CMR data, especially typical late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) was not associated with increased mortality, while pleural effusion and left atrial dilatation on echocardiography were identified as powerful predictors of mortality. In conclusion, both AL and ATTR amyloidosis exhibited poor outcomes. Cardiac involvement, particularly dilated left atrium and pleural effusion on echocardiography were associated with an increased risk of mortality, while typical LGE on CMR was not.

Kidney and Liver Predictors of Adults Hospitalized with COVID-19 Infection

SARS-CoV-2 damages not only the lungs, but also the liver and kidney. Most critically ill COVID-19 patients have liver and kidney dysfunctions. The early identification of patients with COVID-19 who will develop severe or critical disease symptoms is important for delivering proper and early treatment. This research studies the correlation of liver and kidney function indexes and COVID-19 outcomes. Electronic medical record data from 391 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the COVID-19 Department, Galilee Medical Center, Nahariya, Israel were collected. Epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and imaging variables were analyzed. The liver and kidney enzyme indexes were measured upon admission and discharge. A correlation between laboratory levels and severity and mortality of COVID-19 patients was undertaken. This study included 391 COVID-19 patients, 258 mild patients and 133 severe patients. Multivariate stepwise regression analyses and discriminant analyses were used to identify and validate powerful predictors. The main outcome was death or invasive ventilation. Three factors, namely higher urea nitrogen (BUN) and IL-6, and lower albumin levels, were the most powerful predictors of mortality, and classified the results (survival vs. death) correctly in 85% of cases (diagnostic accuracy) with a sensitivity of 88% and a specificity 55%. Compared with mild patients, severe patients had lower albumin (ALB), higher alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and BUN (all p < 0.001). COVID-19 patients, especially severe patients, have damage to liver and kidney function. BUN, IL-6 and albumin are factors predicting mortality while fibrinogen and AST could be independent factors for predicting the severity of COVID-19.

Case Series Study on Recovery of Left Ventricle Systolic Function After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention In ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction Patients at FMIC Hospital in Kabul, Afghanistan.

Background Left ventricle dysfunction is the most recurrent consequence of ST-elevated myocardial infarction, and still, it is a powerful predictor of mortality. The percutaneous coronary intervention of the culprit artery disease in acute coronary syndrome is related to a significant improvement of left ventricle segmental function. It is a retrospective case series study on a patient population with the diagnosis of ST-elevated myocardial infarction patients who presented to the hospital within 12 hours and underwent percutaneous coronary intervention at the French Medical Institute of Mother and Children Hospital. Data was collected retrospectively from the patient's medical record files and analyzed. We took the patients with Left ventricle dysfunction on echocardiography on the first presentation before percutaneous coronary intervention and saw the left ventricle function after three months of follow-up. We reviewed the charts of 102 patients (78.4% male and 21.6% female) with a diagnosis of St-elevated myocardial infarction who presented within 12 hours of chest pain. Of 102 patients, 55.9% had hypertension, 21.6% diabetes, 22.5% dyslipidemia, and 19.6% history of smoking, and their mean age was 58.11 ± 11.993 years. We noticed that percutaneous coronary intervention led to significant left ventricle dysfunction improvement in the patient population with ST-elevated myocardial infarction who presented within 12 hours of chest pain.

Coexistence of sarcopenia and self-reported weight loss is a powerful predictor of mortality in older patients with heart failure.

We examined whether the addition of self-reported weight loss improves the accuracy of prediction of mortality caused by sarcopenia in heart failure (HF) patients. We enrolled 477 HF patients (mean age 77 years) who received combined assessment of sarcopenia and self-reported weight loss. Sarcopenia was diagnosed according to the criteria of the Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia. If the patients answered "yes" to the question "have you lost 2 kg or more in the past 6 months?", they were diagnosed as having self-reported weight loss. Sarcopenia and self-reported weight loss coexisted in 32% of patients. During a median follow-up period of 763 days, 65 patients (15%) died. Kaplan-Meier curves showed a significantly higher rate of mortality in HF patients with both sarcopenia and self-reported weight loss than in HF patients with sarcopenia alone. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis showed that the coexistence of sarcopenia and self-reported weight loss is an independent predictor of mortality in HF patients. Inclusion of the coexistence of sarcopenia and self-reported weight loss in the baseline model consisting of established prognostic markers significantly improved both the net reclassification index and the integrated discrimination index. The coexistence of sarcopenia and self-reported weight loss is a powerful predictor of mortality in HF patients. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2024; 24: 95-101.

Determinants of acute malnutrition among 6-59 months old children in public hospitals in Gambella town, Southwest Ethiopia: unmatched case-control study.

Acute malnutrition is a severe public health issue caused by poor nutrition over a short period of time. It is a powerful predictor of mortality. The Gambella region's risk factors for acute malnutrition, however, are not well understood. Thus, the risk factors for acute malnutrition were identified in this study. A facility-based unmatched-case control study design was conducted in public hospitals in Gambella town from February 15 to March 30, 2019. A total of 85 cases and 170 controls were included in the study. According to the average monthly caseload, children between the ages of 6 and 59 months were distributed among the public hospitals. Then, cases and controls were chosen using a systematic random sampling technique. A standardized, previously tested questionnaire was used to collect the data. EPI-data version 3.1 was used to enter the data, which was subsequently exported to SPSS version 20 for analysis. Statistical significance was set at p 0.05 for the bivariate and multivariable logistic regressions that were employed. Household income of <=1,500 birr [AOR = 2.46 at 95% CI (1.37-4.39)], being unemployed [AOR = 2.37 at 95% CI (1.34-4.20)], rural residence [AOR = 1.96 at 95% CI (1.10-3.51)], having diarrhea [AOR = 2.47, 95% CI (1.36-4.51)], fever [AOR = 2.05, 95% CI (1.03-4.10)], and pneumonia (AOR = 2.41), and exclusive breast feeding (AOR = 1.96, and exclusive breast feeding [AOR = 1.96, 95% CI (1.18-4.91)], and exclusive breast feeding (AOR = 1.96) minimum dietary diversity [AOR = 2.86, 95% CI (1.06-3.64)], minimum dietary diversity [AOR = 2.86, 95% CI (1.37-5.95)], weight measurement at birth [AOR = 0.86, 95% CI (0.08-0.93)], unplanned birth of the child [AOR = 1.97, 95% CI (1.02-3.78)], and non-immunized [AOR = 4.12, 95% CI (1.05-16.13)] were associated with acute malnutrition. This research identified multiple risk factors for acute malnutrition in children aged 6-59 months, suggesting health interventions, and programs at all levels of the system executed in an organized manner with substantial program ramifications.

Assessment of cardio-renal-hepatic function in patients with valvular heart disease: a multi-biomarker approach—the cardio-renal-hepatic score

BackgroundValvular heart disease (VHD) can cause damage to extra-cardiac organs, and lead to multi-organ dysfunction. However, little is known about the cardio-renal-hepatic co-dysfunction, as well as its prognostic implications in patients with VHD. The study sought to develop a multi-biomarker index to assess heart, kidney, and liver function in an integrative fashion, and investigate the prognostic role of cardio-renal-hepatic function in VHD.MethodsUsing a large, contemporary, prospective cohort of 6004 patients with VHD, the study developed a multi-biomarker score for predicting all-cause mortality based on biomarkers reflecting heart, kidney, and liver function (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP], creatinine, and albumin). The score was externally validated in another contemporary, prospective cohort of 3156 patients with VHD.ResultsDuring a median follow up of 731 (704–748) days, 594 (9.9%) deaths occurred. Increasing levels of NT-proBNP, creatinine, and albumin were independently and monotonically associated with mortality, and a weighted multi-biomarker index, named the cardio-renal-hepatic (CRH) score, was developed based on Cox regression coefficients of these biomarkers. The CRH score was a strong and independent predictor of mortality, with 1-point increase carrying over two times of mortality risk (overall adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 2.095 [1.891–2.320], P < 0.001). The score provided complementary prognostic information beyond conventional risk factors (C index: 0.78 vs 0.81; overall net reclassification improvement index [95% confidence interval]: 0.255 [0.204–0.299]; likelihood ratio test P < 0.001), and was identified as the most important predictor of mortality by the proportion of explainable log-likelihood ratio χ2 statistics, the best subset analysis, as well as the random survival forest analysis in most types of VHD. The predictive performance of the score was also demonstrated in patients under conservative treatment, with normal left ventricular systolic function, or with primary VHD. It achieved satisfactory discrimination (C index: 0.78 and 0.72) and calibration in both derivation and validation cohorts.ConclusionsA multi-biomarker index was developed to assess cardio-renal-hepatic function in patients with VHD. The cardio-renal-hepatic co-dysfunction is a powerful predictor of mortality and should be considered in clinical management decisions.

503 The Accuracy of the Revised Baux Score in Predicting Burn Mortality: A Systematic Review

Abstract Introduction Osler et al. revised the Baux score in 2010 to include inhalation injury, attempting to improve upon the original 1961 model given the significant advances in modern burn care. Other predictive models of burn mortality have similarly been developed using use an assortment of other variables, however there is no consensus on the preferred formula to use. This systematic review aims to investigate the accuracy of the revised Baux (rBaux) score in comparison to other models when determining mortality risk in patients with burn injuries. Methods A systematic review was performed by two independent reviewers using electronic databases (PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus) from March 1, 2010 to May 22, 2022. The majority of studies were classified as “high” quality and no studies were excluded due to risk of bias. Articles were included if they were published in English and assessed risk of mortality from burns using the rBaux model and an alternative model. The PRISMA statement was followed, and all the PROBAST quality appraisal checklist was used during data extraction. Results The search identified 79 non-duplicate citations, of which 33 underwent full-text review, and 21 met inclusion criteria. They assessed the predictive ability of the rBaux score in comparison to the original Baux score, Belgian Outcome for Burn Injury, Abbreviated Burn Severity Index, APACHE II, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, Boston Group/Ryan scores, the FLAMES model, the Prognostic Burn Index, and several other equations that have not been externally validated. The accuracy of mortality prediction (area under ROC curves) for the rBaux score ranged from 0.68 to 0.99 and 14 studies found a value greater than 0.90. These ROC values were found to be lowest in the two studies with subgroupings for age, demonstrating an ROC of 0.01 in children, and 0.68 and 0.92 in the elderly. Eleven studies described sensitivity, specificity, or both, with sensitivity ranging from 12% to 96%, and specificity ranging from 80% to 100%. Conclusions The rBaux score offers a relatively easy method to rapidly assess the mortality risk from burn injury in a broad range of patient populations based on age, percent total body surface area burned, and presence/absence of an inhalation injury. This tool remains valid despite the exclusion of patient comorbidities and other injury-related factors. However, this study also identified the rBaux’s ability to predict mortality risk was limited when applied to patients at the extremes of age, highlighting an important area for future research. At present, given its relative simplicity and generalizability, the rBaux score remains a useful clinical tool for predicting mortality. Applicability of Research to Practice The rBaux score remains a simple yet powerful predictor of mortality in burn patients, which can be applied at the bedside on initial presentation across diverse patient populations.

P38 MAPK and MKP-1 control the glycolytic program via the bifunctional glycolysis regulator PFKFB3 during sepsis

Hyperlactatemia often occurs in critically ill patients during severe sepsis/septic shock and is a powerful predictor of mortality. Lactate is the end product of glycolysis. While hypoxia due to inadequate oxygen delivery may result in anaerobic glycolysis, sepsis also enhances glycolysis under hyperdynamic circulation with adequate oxygen delivery. However, the molecular mechanisms involved are not fully understood. Mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) families regulate many aspects of the immune response during microbial infections. MAPK phosphatase (MKP)-1 serves as a feedback control mechanism for p38 and JNK MAPK activities via dephosphorylation. Here, we found that mice deficient in Mkp-1 exhibited substantially enhanced expression and phosphorylation of 6-phosphofructo-2-kinase/fructose-2,6-biphosphatase (PFKFB) 3, a key enzyme that regulates glycolysis following systemic Escherichia coli infection. Enhanced PFKFB3 expression was observed in a variety of tissues and cell types, including hepatocytes, macrophages, and epithelial cells. In bone marrow-derived macrophages, Pfkfb3 was robustly induced by both E.coli and lipopolysaccharide, and Mkp-1 deficiency enhanced PFKFB3 expression with no effect on Pfkfb3 mRNA stability. PFKFB3 induction was correlated with lactate production in both WT and Mkp-1-/- bone marrow-derived macrophage following lipopolysaccharide stimulation. Furthermore, we determined that a PFKFB3 inhibitor markedly attenuated lactate production, highlighting the critical role of PFKFB3 in the glycolysis program. Finally, pharmacological inhibition of p38 MAPK, but not JNK, substantially attenuated PFKFB3 expression and lactate production. Taken together, our studies suggest a critical role of p38 MAPK and MKP-1 in the regulation of glycolysis during sepsis.

Abstract 11499: Management of Mixed Aortic Valve Disease Patients: Can N-terminal Pro-Brain Natriuretic Peptide Ratio Improve Risk Assessment?

Introduction: Risk assessment of mixed aortic valve disease (MAVD: concomitant aortic stenosis [AS] and regurgitation [AR]) patients is challenging, especially in non-severe lesions. In fact, these patients often present LV dysfunction after aortic valve replacement (AVR), and concomitant non-severe lesions appear to have similar outcomes than severe AS. Objective: We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) ratio in risk stratification of MAVD patients. Methods: A total of 582 consecutive MAVD patients (mean age 73±11 years, 63% men) with at least concomitant mild AS and AR in whom a measurement of NT-proBNP during the same episode of care was available were included. NT-proBNP ratio (i.e., plasma level divided by maximal normal values for age and sex derived from Mayo Clinic laboratory) was calculated. In subgroups analyses, patients were divided according to MAVD pattern (severe AS or AR [n=364] and non-severe AS/AR [n=218]) and according to treatment strategy (early AVR [i.e., ≤3 months, n=429] or initial medical treatment [MT; n=153]). Results: Baseline median NT-proBNP ratio was 3.5 (IQR: 1.2-10.0). A total of 105 patients died during a median follow-up of 5.6 (2.8-6.1) years. Overall, NT-proBNP ratio ≥3 was significantly associated with long-term all-cause mortality in multivariable analyses adjusted for clinical and echocardiographic parameters as well as AVR as a time-dependent variable . NT-proBNP-ratio also showed incremental prognostic value at 1, 2 and 5 years over EuroSCORE II and echocardiographic parameters (all, net reclassification index &gt;0.45; p≤0.005). In all subgroups, NT-proBNP-ratio ≥3 remained independently associated with excess mortality ( severe AS or AR - HR[95CI]: 3.30[1.54-7.05], non-severe AS/AR : 2.14[1.03-4.43], early AVR : 2.48[1.16-5.39], initial MT : 2.72[1.02-7.22]; all p≤0.04). In patients who underwent early AVR, NT-proBNP-ratio ≥3 was also associated with higher 30-days mortality (9[4%] vs. 1[0.5%], p=0.02). Conclusions: In this series of MAVD patients, NT-proBNP-ratio was a powerful predictor of mortality, even in non-severe lesions, early AVR and medically treated patients. AVR may be reasonable before reaching an NT-proBNP-ratio ≥3.

Temporalis muscle thickness predicts early relapse and short survival in primary CNS lymphoma.

Most patients with primary CNS lymphoma (PCNSL) achieve durable remission whereas a minority die in the first year. Sarcopenia is a powerful predictor of mortality in the brain and systemic cancers. Temporalis muscle thickness (TMT) is a validated radiographic measure of sarcopenia. We hypothesized that patients with thin TMT at diagnosis would have early progression and short survival. Two blinded operators retrospectively measured TMT in 99 consecutive brain MRIs from untreated patients with PCNSL. We generated a receiver operator characteristic curve and chose a single threshold defining thin TMT in all patients as <5.65 mm, at which specificity and sensitivity for 1-year progression were 98.4% and 29.7% and for 1-year mortality were 97.4% and 43.5% respectively. Those with thin TMT were both more likely to progress (P < .001) and had higher rates of mortality (P < .001). These effects were independent of the effect of age, sex, and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status in a cox regression. Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center score did not predict progression-free survival or overall survival as well as TMT. Patients with thin TMT received fewer cycles of high-dose methotrexate and were less likely to receive consolidation but neither variable could be included in the Cox regression due to violation of the proportional hazards assumption. We conclude that PCNSL patients with thin TMT are at high risk for early relapse and short survival. Future trials should stratify patients by TMT to avoid confounding.

Refining the accuracy of right ventricular-pulmonary arterial coupling in patients undergoing transcatheter tricuspid valve treatment

Abstract Background Assessing right-ventricular (RV) function is paramount for risk stratification but remains challenging in patients with TR. RV-pulmonary artery (PA) coupling seems more feasible for the assessment of RV function. Methods We assessed RV-PA coupling by the ratio of TAPSE and PASP at baseline, in which PASP was measured both by echocardiography (ePASP) and invasively using a right-heart catheter (iPASP). We also assessed the RV fractional-area change (RVFAC) as measured by transthoracic echocardiography. Participants for the present study comprised patients undergoing TTVR from June 2015 to July 2021 at the University Hospital of Bonn. Patients lacking either echocardiographic or invasive measurements for the assessment of RV-PA coupling were excluded from the analysis. The outcome was defined as a composite of mortality and rehospitalization due to heart failure within one year after the procedure. Results A total of 206 patients were included in the present analysis. The participants were at an advanced age (78.5±7.1 years), predominantly female (58.3%), and at a high risk for surgery (EuroSCORE II: 7.4±4.8%). Massive/torrential TR was observed in 100 of these patients. With the median follow-up duration of 201 days (interquartile range 98–424 days), the outcome occurred in 57 patients. Compared to TAPSE/ePASP, TAPSE/iPASP showed better predictability for the outcome: the AUCs were 0.582 for TAPSE/ePASP and increased to 0.714 when iPASP was applied to the formula (i.e. TAPSE/iPASP). The trend was also true for RV-PA coupling using RVFAC (AUCs: 0.561 for RVFAC/ePASP, 0.693 for RVFAC/iPASP). There was a significant correlation between ePASP and iPASP, whereas the correlation was attenuated in patients with TR beyond severe (i.e. massive/torrential TR) (interaction p = 0.01). In addition, a semiquantitative echocardiographic estimation of right atrial (RA) pressure was not correlated with the invasive measurement. Conclusion The present analysis confirms that RV-PA coupling, measured as TAPSE/PASP, is a powerful predictor of mortality and rehospitalization due to heart failure in patients undergoing TTVR. The predictability is even more improved if PA pressure is measured invasively and applied to the formulas. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.

Prevalence and survival associated with pulmonary hypertension after mitral valve replacement: National echocardiography database of Australia study.

The specific prevalence and outcome of pulmonary hypertension after mitral valve replacement (MVR) is not well documented. The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence and prognostic impact of pulmonary hypertension after MVR. In addition, we sought to determine the threshold of mortality risk according to echocardiography derived pulmonary pressures and those echocardiographic characteristics that are associated with increased mortality. Using the National Echocardiography Database of Australia, patients who had undergone MVR were identified with estimated right ventricular systolic pressure (eRVSP) assessed and linked to patient mortality during mean follow up of 1917 days. Classification and regression tree analysis was used to identify the most powerful predictors of mortality. A total of 10,994 patients who had undergone echocardiography following MVR (mean age 65.2 ± 16, 44.8% women) were studied (mean follow‐up 1917 days). The prevalence of PH (defined as eRSVP ≥40 mmHg) was 64.1% (7042/10,994). Severe PH (eRVSP ≥60 mmHg) was seen in 42.3% (4671/10,994). Mortality in individuals with PH was greater than amongst individuals without PH (41.1% vs. 26.3%). Age, tricuspid regurgitation and left ventricular dysfunction were also associated with mortality. There is a high prevalence of PH after MVR which confers an adverse prognosis. Improved therapeutic approaches to mitral valve disease and the subsequent development of PH are essential.

The prognostic value of right ventricular ejection fraction by cardiovascular magnetic resonance in heart failure: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundCardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) is considered the gold standard for the assessment of right ventricular ejection fraction (RVEF). Previous studies have suggested that RVEF may be a predictor of adverse outcomes in heart failure (HF). In this study, we aimed to systematically review the prognostic value of RVEF, evaluated by CMR, across the spectrum of left ventricular systolic function in patients with HF. MethodsElectronic databases were searched for studies investigating the prognostic value of RVEF in HF, irrespective of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). A random-effects meta-analysis was conducted for mortality and HF hospitalization. Subgroup analyses were also performed based on the presence of reduced (<50%) or preserved LVEF (≥50%). ResultsIn total, 46 studies enrolling 14,344 patients were included. In the pooled analyses, impaired RVEF was a powerful predictor of mortality (HR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.18–1.33, I2: 13%, per 10% decrease in RVEF) and death or HF hospitalization (HR: 1.31, 95% Cl: 1.2–1.42, I2: 27%, per 10% decrease in RVEF). A decrease in RVEF was strongly associated with increased risk of mortality or hospitalization both in HF with reduced EF (HR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.13–1.36, I2: 2%, per 10% decrease in RVEF) and in HF with preserved EF (HR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.09–1.40, I2: 0%, per 10% decrease in RVEF). ConclusionImpaired RVEF on CMR strongly predicts adverse outcomes in patients with HF regardless of LVEF. RV systolic function should be carefully evaluated in these patients.Prospero Registration:https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42021256967

Thresholds for clinical practice that directly link handgrip strength to remaining years of life: estimates based on longitudinal observational data

ObjectiveMuscle strength is a powerful predictor of mortality that can quickly and inexpensively be assessed by measuring handgrip strength (HGS). What is missing for clinical practice, however, are empirically meaningful...

Feasibility, Prediction and Association of Right Ventricular Free Wall Longitudinal Strain with 30-Day Mortality in Severe COVID-19 Pneumonia: A Prospective Study.

Introduction: Right ventricular (RV) systolic dysfunction (RVsD) is a common complication of coronavirus infection 2019 disease (COVID-19). The right ventricular free wall longitudinal strain parameter (RV-FWLS) is a powerful predictor of mortality. We explored the performance of RVsD parameters for predicting 30-day mortality and the association between RV-FWLS and 30-day mortality. Methods: COVID-19 patients hospitalized at Amiens University Hospital in the critical care unit with transthoracic echocardiography were included. We measured tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE), the RV S’ wave, RV fractional area change (RV-FAC), and RV-FWLS. The diagnostic performance of RVsD parameters as predictors for 30-day mortality was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). RVsD was defined by an RV-FWLS < 21% to explore the association between RVsD and 30-day mortality. Results: Of the 116 patients included, 20% (n = 23/116) died and 47 had a RVsD. ROC curve analysis showed that RV-FWLS failed to predict 30-day mortality, as did conventional RV parameters (all p > 0.05). TAPSE (21 (19–26) mm vs. 24 (21–27) mm; p = 0.024) and RV-FAC (40 (35–47)% vs. 47 (41–55)%; p = 0.006) were lowered in the RVsD group. In Cox analysis, RVsD was not associated with 30-day mortality (hazard ratio = 1.12, CI 95% (0.49–2.55), p = 0.78). Conclusion: In severe COVID-19 pneumonia, RV-FWLS was not associated with 30-day mortality.

Study of Utility of Basic Arterial Blood Gas Parameters and Lactate as Prognostic Markers in Patients With Severe Dengue

BackgroundThe importance of prognostication in critical care cannot be over-emphasized, especially in the context of diseases like dengue, as their presentation may vary from mild fever to critical life-threatening illness. With the help of prognostic markers, it is possible to identify patients at higher risk and thus improve their outcome with timely intervention. Basic arterial blood gas (ABG) parameters, i.e., potential of hydrogen (pH), partial pressure of oxygen (PO2), partial pressure of carbon dioxide (PCO2) and bicarbonate are useful parameters, especially in critical care medicine as they are known to vary with the severity of illness. Hyperlactatemia is often referred to as a “powerful predictor of mortality”. Basic ABG parameters and lactate have been used as an essential prognostic modality in critically ill patients for decades; however, the evidence remains limited for their role as prognostic markers in patients with severe dengue.MethodWe carried out an observational retrospective cohort study comprising 163 patients with severe dengue, admitted between July 2021 and November 2021 at Medical Intensive Care Unit (MICU) of Shri Ram Murti Smarak Institute of Medical Sciences (SRMS IMS), Bareilly, Uttar Pradesh, India. Basic ABG parameters and lactate levels at the time of admission to MICU were compared between survivor and non-survivor groups of patients with severe dengue in order to evaluate their prognostic utility as predictors of mortality.ResultspH (p<0.0001), PO2 (p=0.01) and bicarbonate (<0.0001) levels were significantly lower, while PCO2 (p=0.002) and lactate (p<0.0001) levels were significantly higher in non-survivor group as compared to survivor group. Lactate was found to be the best prognostic marker with Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 88.7% on Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) analysis.ConclusionBasic arterial blood gas parameters and lactate can be used as feasible prognostic markers in patients with severe dengue.

Prediction of Mortality in Coronary Artery Disease: Role of Machine Learning and Maximal Exercise Capacity

ObjectiveTo develop a prediction model for survival of patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) using health conditions beyond cardiovascular risk factors, including maximal exercise capacity, through the application of machine learning (ML) techniques. MethodsAnalysis of data from a retrospective cohort linking clinical, administrative, and vital status databases from 1995 to 2016 was performed. Inclusion criteria were age 18 years or older, diagnosis of CAD, referral to a cardiac rehabilitation program, and available baseline exercise test results. Primary outcome was death from any cause. Feature selection was performed using supervised and unsupervised ML techniques. The final prognostic model used the survival tree (ST) algorithm. ResultsFrom the cohort of 13,362 patients (60±11 years; 2400 [18%] women), 1577 died during a median follow-up of 8 years (interquartile range, 4 to 13 years), with an estimated survival of 67% up to 21 years. Feature selection revealed age and peak metabolic equivalents (METs) as the features with the greatest importance for mortality prediction. Using these 2 features, the ST generated a long-term prediction with a C-index of 0.729 by splitting patients in 8 clusters with different survival probabilities (P<.001). The ST root node was split by peak METs of 6.15 or less or more than 6.15, and each patient’s subgroup was further split by age or other peak METs cut points. ConclusionApplying ML techniques, age and maximal exercise capacity accurately predict mortality in patients with CAD and outperform variables commonly used for decision-making in clinical practice. A novel and simple prognostic model was established, and maximal exercise capacity was further suggested to be one of the most powerful predictors of mortality in CAD.

Cutoff Values of Hemodynamic Parameters in Pediatric Refractory Septic Shock.

Background: Refractory septic shock can cause severe morbidities and mortalities in children. Resuscitation based on hemodynamics is important in children with critical illness. Thus, this study aimed to identify the hemodynamics of refractory septic shock associated with poor prognosis at an early stage to allow for timely interventions. Methods: We evaluated children with refractory septic shock admitted to a pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) and monitored their hemodynamics using a pulse index continuous cardiac output (PiCCO) system. The serial cardiac index (CI), systemic vascular resistance index (SVRI), and vasoactive–inotropic score (VIS) were recorded during the first 72 h after PICU admission. Results: Thirty-three children with refractory septic shock were enrolled. The SVRI and VIS were both associated with fatality from septic shock. The non-survivors had lower serial SVRI and higher VIS (both p < 0.05). Based on the area under the ROC curve, the SVRI was the predictor during the early resuscitative stage (first 36 h) in pediatric refractory septic shock. Conclusions: Both SVRI and VIS are predictors of mortality in children with refractory septic shock, and the SVRI is the powerful predictor of mortality in the early resuscitative stage. A low serial SVRI may allow for the early awareness of disease severity and strategies for adjusting vasoactive–inotropic agents to increase the SVRI.

Baseline troponin-T is powerful predictor of mortality after coronary bifurcation stenting

Abstract Introduction Considerable progress has been made in the treatment of coronary bifurcation stenosis. Anatomical characteristics of the lesion, however, fail to give information about the functional significance of the bifurcation stenosis. There is no study that systematically establishes the baseline functional significance of coronary stenosis and its effect on procedural and clinical outcomes. Methods Patients with significant angiographically bifurcation lesions defined as diameter stenosis &amp;gt;50% in main vessel and/or side branch were included. FFR was performed in main vessel (MV) and side branch (SB) before and after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). If FFR was ≤0.80 the lesion was considered functionally significant, and patients underwent PCI. For the group with FFR &amp;gt;0.80 – intervention was deferred. All patients were followed-up for vital status every 3 months. Cox regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of all-cause and cardiovascular death. The local ethics committee approved the study and patients signed informed consent for participation into registry. Results For mean follow-up of 38±18 months (median 40, IQR 23–55 months) all-cause mortality was numerically lower: 8.5% (n=7/82) in deferred group and 12.6% in stented group (n=11/76, p=0.387). The cardiac mortality was also numerically lower, but statistically not significant (9.8%, n=8/82 vs. 11.5%, n=10/88, p=0.714). On multivariate model, independent predictors were mitral regurgitation &amp;gt;1st degree – HR=1.778 (CI 1.100–2.874, p=0.019); dyslipidemia HR=0.765 (CI 0.594–0.985, p=0.038); hemoglobin concentration – HR=0.976 (CI 0.964–0.988, p&amp;lt;0.001); pre-PCI serum troponin ≥0.010 ng/ml – HR=2.702 (CI 1.451–5.032, p=0.002). On multivariate analysis, the following factors were identified as independent predictors of cardiac mortality: age – HR=1.035 (CI 1.009–1.062, p=0.009); diabetes – HR=1.789 (CI 1.089–2.962, p=0.024); dyslipidemia treated with statin – HR=0.667 (CI 0.515–0.863, p=0.002); LV posterior wall thickness – HR=1.230 (CI 1.062–1.424, p=0.006); mitral regurgitation more than 1st degree – HR=1.763 (CI 1.065–2.917, p=0.027); troponin pre-PCI ≥0.010 ng/ml – HR=2.498 (CI 1.228–5.081, p=0.011); true bifurcation lesion – HR=1.820 (CI 1.026–3.229, p=0.040); SBBARI score &amp;lt;10% – HR=1.715 (CI 1.049–2.804, p-0.031). Conclusion Baseline high-sensitive troponin T value is a strong predictor for both all cause and cardiac mortality in patients undergoing coronary bifurcation lesion PCI. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Public hospital(s). Main funding source(s): Alexandrovska University Hospital

Combined cardiac risk factors predict COVID-19 related mortality and the need for mechanical ventilation in Coptic Clergy

Abstract Background and aims The clinical adverse events of COVID-19 among clergy worldwide have been found higher than among ordinary communities, probably because of the nature of their work. The aim of this study, was to assess the impact of cardiac risk factors on COVID-19-related mortality and the need for mechanical ventilation in Coptic clergy. Methods Of 1576 Coptic clergy participating in the COVID-19-Clergy study, serving in Egypt, USA and Europe, 213 had the infection and were included in this analysis. Based on the presence of systemic arterial hypertension (AH), participants were divided into two groups: Group-I, Clergy with AH (n=77) and Group-II, without AH (n=136).Participants' demographic indices, cardiovascular risk factors, COVID-19 management details and related mortality were assessed. Results Clergy with AH were older (p&amp;lt;0.001), more obese (p=0.04), had frequent type 2 diabetes (DM) (p=0.001), dyslipidemia (p=0.001) and coronary heart disease (CHD) (p=0.04) compared to those without AH. COVID-19 treatment at home, hospital or in intensive care did not differ between the patient groups (p&amp;gt;0.05 for all). Clergy serving in Northern and Southern Egypt had a higher mortality rate compared to those from Europe and the USA combined (5.22%, 6.38%, 0%; p=0.001). The impact of AH on mortality was significant only in Southern Egypt (10% vs. 3.7%; p=0.01) but not in Northern Egypt (4.88% vs. 5.81%; p=0.43). In multivariate analysis, CHD OR 1.607 [(0.982 to 3.051); p=0.02] and obesity, OR 3.403 [(1.902 to 4.694); p=0.04]predicted COVID-19 related mortality. A model combining cardiac risk factors (systolic blood pressure (SBP) ≥160 mmHg, DM, obesity, dyslipidemia and history of CHD), was the most powerful independent predictor of COVID-19-related mortality, OR 4.813 [(2.011 to 7.017); p=0.008]. The same model also proved the best independent multivariate predictor of mechanical ventilation OR 1.444 [(0.949 to 11.88); p=0.001]. Conclusion In Coptic clergy, the cumulative impact of risk factors is the most powerful predictor of mortality and the need for mechanical ventilation in Coptic clergy. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.