Prediction Of Power Generation Research Articles

Improving Accuracy in Solar Power Plant Power Generation Prediction: A Hybrid Model Proposal

Improving Accuracy in Solar Power Plant Power Generation Prediction: A Hybrid Model Proposal

Small-Sample Short-Term Photovoltaic Output Prediction Model Based on GRA-SSA-GNNM Method

The precision of photovoltaic (PV) output forecasting results is crucial to the reliability of the intelligent distribution network and multi-energy supplementary system. This work aims to address problems of insufficient research related to the short-term prediction of small-sample PV power generation and the low prediction accuracy in the previous research. A hybrid prediction model based on grey relation analysis (GRA) combined with the sparrow search algorithm (SSA) and the grey neural network model (GNNM) is proposed. In this paper, GRA is utilized to reduce the dimension of meteorological features of the samples. Then, the GNNM is used to perform regression analysis on the input features after reducing the dimension of meteorological features of the samples, and the parameters of the GNNM are optimized via SSA. A limited dataset was used to compare several models in different seasons and weather conditions. The prediction results agree well with the data from the PV power plant in Xinjiang, indicating that the GRA-SSA-GNNM model developed in this work effectively achieves a high precision estimation in short-term PV power generation output prediction and has a promising application in this field.

Investigation of the Features Influencing the Accuracy of Wind Turbine Power Calculation at Short-Term Intervals

The accurate prediction of wind power generation, as well as the development of a digital twin of a wind turbine, require estimation of the power curve. Actual measurements of generated power, especially over short-term intervals, show that in many cases the power generated differs from the calculated power, which considers only the wind speed and the technical parameters of the wind turbine. Some of these measurements are erroneous, while others are influenced by additional factors affecting generation beyond wind speed alone. This study presents an investigation of the features influencing the accuracy of calculations of wind turbine power at short-term intervals. The open dataset of SCADA-system measurements from a real wind turbine is used. It is discovered that using ensemble machine learning models and additional features, including the actual power from the previous time step, enhances the accuracy of the wind power calculation. The root-mean-square error achieved is 113 kW, with the nominal capacity of the wind turbine under consideration being 3.6 MW. Consequently, the ratio of the root-mean-square error to the nominal capacity is 3%.

Based on Deep Learning Model and Flink Streaming Computing Short Term Photovoltaic Power Generation Prediction for Suburban Distribution Network

With the advancement of global energy internet construction, accurate prediction of new energy generation power such as photovoltaic is an important foundation for ensuring the safety and economic working of new power systems. A short-term photovoltaic power generation prediction method for suburban distribution networks based on deep learning model fusion and Flink flow calculation is proposed to address the challenges of complex power grids, diversified disturbance factors, and isolated monitoring points. This method uses Bi directional Long Short Term Memory(BiLSTM) to extract cross sequential nonlinear characteristic of photovoltaic power generation time series data. Compared with standard LSTM, BiLSTM can consider both historical and future information simultaneously, thus extracting richer extracted features from power generation time series data. This method also integrates attention mechanism to capture the importance distribution of historical temporal features for power generation prediction, effectively solving the problem of long-term temporal dependence in standard LSTM models. The Flink streaming computing framework embeds a trained BiLSTM-Attention photovoltaic power generation prediction model, enabling real-time prediction and monitoring analysis of photovoltaic power generation at various monitoring points in the suburban distribution network. This article uses a dataset of a suburban photovoltaic power station for validation, and trains the model with historical power generation data, meteorological factors, weather types, seasons, and other information as inputs. The BiLSTM-Attention fusion model studys the temporal characteristics of power generation, and has high accuracy in predicting short-term photovoltaic power generation in different scenarios. The Flink streaming computing platform can not only process high throughput predicted power data, but also has low time delay.

A Short-term PV Power Prediction and Uncertainty Analysis Model Based on CEEMDAN and AHA-BP

The stochastic and intermittent nature of photovoltaic (PV) generation brings a series of scheduling problems to the power system. An effective prediction of PV power is essential to minimize the impact of uncertainty. Therefore, this paper presents an integrated prediction model with complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), the artificial hummingbird algorithm (AHA), and the BP neural network (BPNN) for predicting power generation from PV power plants, and a methodology for uncertainty analysis by using the nonparametric kernel density estimation (NPKDE). First, one month of PV power is decomposed into an array of components using CEEMDAN. Then, the weights and thresholds of the BPNN are optimized by using AHA. These components are trained using the BPNN. Finally, the final prediction results are obtained by superimposing the components, and NPKDE is employed to compute the probability density and confidence interval of the prediction error. The proposed prediction method demonstrates superior predictive performance in comparison with other models. Also, the NPKDE approach better describes the accuracy of the probability density distribution.

Sky images based photovoltaic power forecasting: A novel approach with optimized VMD and Vision Mamba

As the global demand for sustainable energy sources continues to grow, accurate prediction of photovoltaic power generation is crucial for optimizing the utilization of solar resources and enhancing the efficiency of photovoltaic systems. To improve the accuracy of photovoltaic power forecasting, this paper proposes a novel hybrid predictive model that integrates Optimized Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), Vision Mamba (Vim) for extracting features from sky images, and advanced mechanisms like Patch Embedding and Variate-wise Cross-Attention. Initially, the proposed model employs SAO-optimized VMD to decompose the photovoltaic power series into high, medium, and low-frequency components. Subsequently, these components are patched to serve as input for the subsequent layers. In the third step, exogenous variables, including meteorological and image data, are introduced and processed through Variate Embedding combined with cross-attention mechanisms to capture the intricate interactions between these variables. Finally, by integrating the outputs from all processing steps through normalization and feed-forward layers, the final predictive results are produced. Experimental evaluations across different seasons demonstrate significant enhancements in forecasting accuracy, with the model achieving Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values of 0.3587 in spring, 0.4376 in summer, 0.3544 in autumn, and 0.3493 in winter. Similarly, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE) across these seasons underscore the model's effectiveness. This model offers new technical means for photovoltaic power forecasting and provides valuable decision support for the optimization and management of photovoltaic power systems.

Analysis of Inverter Efficiency Using Photovoltaic Power Generation Element Parameters

Photovoltaic power generation is influenced not only by variable environmental factors, such as solar radiation, temperature, and humidity, but also by the condition of equipment, including solar modules and inverters. In order to preserve energy production, it is essential to maintain and operate the equipment in optimal condition, which makes it crucial to determine the condition of the equipment in advance. This paper proposes a method of determining a degradation of efficiency by focusing on photovoltaic equipment, especially inverters, using LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) for maintenance. The deterioration in the efficiency of the inverter is set based on the power generation predicted through the LSTM model. To this end, a correlation analysis and a linear analysis were performed between the power generation data collected at the power plant to learn the power generation prediction model and the data collected by the environmental sensor. With this analysis, a model was trained using solar radiation data and power data that are highly correlated with power generation. The results of the evaluation of the model’s performance show that it achieves a MAPE of 7.36, an RMSE of 27.91, a MAE of 18.43, and an R2 of 0.97. The verified model is applied to the power generation data of the selected inverters for the years 2020, 2021, and 2022. Through statistical analysis, it was determined that the error rate in 2022, the third year of its operation, increased by 159.55W on average from the error rate of the power generation forecast in 2020, the first year of operation. This indicates a 0.75% decrease in the inverter’s efficiency compared to the inverter’s power generation capacity. Therefore, it is judged that it can be applied effectively to analyses of inverter efficiency in the operation of photovoltaic plants.

A novel physics-based computational framework to model spacecraft solar array power under degradation: application to European Space Agency (ESA) Cluster mission

Accurate modeling and simulation (M&S) of spacecraft solar array power under degradation is essential for mission planning, remaining useful life assessment, and lifetime extension. A relevant example is ESA’s Cluster spacecraft fleet, launched in 2000 and operated at the European Space Operation Centre (ESOC), whose solar arrays have suffered severe degradation due to space radiation that has caused challenges to routine operations and mission planning. However, currently available physics-based and machine learning models have been proven ineffective in modeling the drastic reduction in power generation over the long operational life of the spacecraft.In response to these limitations, this work introduces a framework to model solar array degradation and predict power generation. It embeds a novel simplified physics-based model and a meta-heuristic optimization algorithm which exploits domain-specific knowledge and monitoring data for robust model parameter calibration and accurate power generation predictions. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach in avoiding overfitting and providing an accurate estimate of Cluster solar array power evolution.

CGAformer: Multi-scale feature Transformer with MLP architecture for short-term photovoltaic power forecasting

Accurately predicting the output power of photovoltaic (PV) systems is an effective means to ensure the reliable and economical operation of grid-connected PV systems. Aiming at the characteristics of PV power generation such as strong volatility, high intermittency and obvious periodicity, a hybrid model named CGAformer based on One-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN1D), Global Additive Attention (GADAttention), and Auto-Correlation is proposed for short-term PV power generation prediction. The model uses CNN1D to extract local features and obtains global weights by improving the GADAttetion obtained by additive attention. Auto-Correlation integrates local features and global weights and identifies repeated patterns in the sequence to obtain highly coupled multi-scale features, and finally generates the final prediction results through Multilayer Perceptron (MLP). In order to verify the effectiveness of the model, this paper uses a historical dataset from a PV system located in Uluru, Australia for sufficient experiments. In the comparative experiments, The overall average RMSE and MAE of CGAformer are improved by 6.82% and 20.46% respectively compared with long short-term memory (LSTM). In addition, ablation experiments and seasonal analysis are used to verify the effectiveness of the model and its excellent generalization ability for different seasons.

CloudSwinNet: A hybrid CNN-transformer framework for ground-based cloud images fine-grained segmentation

Solar irradiance is the main factor affecting the output of a photovoltaic (PV) power station. The dominant role of ground-based clouds on the variation of direct solar radiation in the whole sky. Ground-based cloud segmentation plays a crucial role in photovoltaic power generation prediction. Despite advancements, current cloud segmentation methods fail to meet the requirements of this application. While convolutional neural networks demonstrate impressive segmentation capabilities in ground-based cloud segmentation tasks, their inherent limitations hinder further performance enhancement. Hence, this paper introduces CloudSwinNet, a hybrid CNN-Transformer framework for ground-based cloud images fine-grained segmentation. CloudSwinNet leverages concepts from convolutional neural networks, including stepwise downsampling, local convolution, and skip connections. To further explore the fine-grained features in the ground-based cloud images, we incorporates the Fine-grained Feature Fusion Module (Fg-FFM) in encoder structure, while the jump connection structure integrates the GloRe spatial graph inference module. These additions enable comprehensive learning of multi-scale and long-range dependencies. We conducted extensive experiments on the fine-grained ground-based cloud dataset, demonstrating that CloudSwinNet outperforms six semantic segmentation networks in both qualitative and quantitative evaluations. The results of ablation experiments prove the effectiveness of the module introduced in this paper.

Assessment of green hydrogen production by volatile renewable energy under different SSPs scenarios in China

In the context of increasing global concerns about climate change and sustainable energy, the production of green hydrogen (GH) from volatile renewable energy (VRE) sources, such as solar and wind, is a natural choice for China to meet its climate change mitigation goals. However, there are a number of challenges in current research on the assessment of green hydrogen potential. This study evaluates the potential of GH production through VRE at the regional level in China, under the various scenarios of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). For this purpose, a power generation prediction model suitable for VRE is proposed to predict the energy supply capacity for GH production in six regions of China, which combined Multilevel Discrete Wavelet Decomposition and Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory with attention mechanism (MDWD - AMBiLSTM). The total amount of GH could potentially reach up to 428.01 Mt under the SSP1, with the northern region leading at the regional level at 104.21 Mt. Furthermore, the study evaluated the potential for GH promotion in six regions of China between 2023 and 2035 b y combining the three dimensions of GH production potential, economic evaluation, and environmental contribution. This study tentative identify priority areas and development scenarios for promoting GH production in China, and made policy recommendations for the promotion of green hydrogen in disparate areas.

The Impact of the Weather Forecast Model on Improving AI-Based Power Generation Predictions through BiLSTM Networks

This study aims to comprehensively analyze five weather forecasting models obtained from the Open-Meteo historical data repository, with a specific emphasis on evaluating their impact in predicting wind power generation. Given the increasing focus on renewable energy, namely, wind power, accurate weather forecasting plays a crucial role in optimizing energy generation and ensuring the stability of the power system. The analysis conducted in this study incorporates a range of models, namely, ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON), the Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM Global), Meteo France, the Global Forecast System (GSF Global), and the Best Match technique. The Best Match approach is a distinctive solution available from the weather forecast provider that combines the data from all available models to generate the most precise forecast for a particular area. The performance of these models was evaluated using various important metrics, including the mean squared error, the root mean squared error, the mean absolute error, the mean absolute percentage error, the coefficient of determination, and the normalized mean absolute error. The weather forecast model output was used as an essential input for the power generation prediction models during the evaluation process. This method was confirmed by comparing the predictions of these models with actual data on wind power generation. The ICON model, for example, outscored others with a root mean squared error of 1.7565, which is a tiny but essential improvement over Best Match, which had a root mean squared error of 1.7604. GEM Global and Gsf Global showed more dramatic changes, with root mean squared errors (RMSEs) of 2.0086 and 2.0242, respectively, indicating a loss in prediction accuracy of around 24% to 31% compared to ICON. Our findings reveal significant disparities in the precision of the various models used, and certain models exhibited significantly higher predictive precision.

Prediction of long-term photovoltaic power generation in the context of climate change

Accurate long-term prediction of power generation in photovoltaic (PV) power stations is crucial for preparing generation plans and future planning. Quantitative prediction of future power generation from PV stations not only contributes to the stable operation of the local power system but also assists managers in formulating regional energy policies to promote renewable energy consumption. We utilized the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 high-resolution climate dataset and employed the Vine Copula method for post-downscaling. This approach enabled high-resolution forecasts of key meteorological factors under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) for a PV power station in Yunnan, China. Additionally, we developed the KM-PSO-SVR power generation prediction model, which enables future accurate long-term PV power generation prediction. The results show that the Vine Copula multi-model ensemble downscaling model can effectively simulate the changes in key meteorological factors in the PV power station area. The KM-PSO-SVR model exhibited good simulation performance, with a mean absolute error of 0.843, root mean square error of 1.136, and correlation coefficient of 0.874 during the validation period. The results indicate that during the decade spanning from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2034, radiation and wind speed will be decrease, while the temperature is expected to increase. In the SSP245 scenario, there is a 1.585 % increase in the average annual power generation during the future carbon peaking period (2025–2034). However, the SSP585 scenario, representing higher future emissions, shows a lower increase of 1.479 %.

Prediction of power generation and maintenance using AOC‐ResNet50 network

AbstractWith the continuous expansion of the photovoltaic industry, the application of solar photovoltaic power generation systems is becoming increasingly widespread. Due to the obvious intermittency and volatility of photovoltaic power generation, integration of large‐scale photovoltaic power generation into the power grid can cause certain impacts on the security and stability of the grid. Photovoltaic power prediction is essential to solve this problem, as it can improve the quality of photovoltaic grid connection, optimize grid scheduling, and ensure the safe operation of the grid. In this article, the deep learning method is selected for photovoltaic power prediction. Based on the analysis of the OctConv (Octave Convolution) network structure, the AOctConv (Attention Octave Convolution) convolutional neural network structure is proposed, which is combined with the ResNet50 backbone network to obtain AOC‐ResNet50. It is then applied to the prediction of the generation of photovoltaic power. The prediction performance is compared with the ResNet50 network and the Oct‐ResNet50 network, and it is found that the AOC‐ResNet50 network has the best prediction performance, with an MAE of only 0.176888. Based on the exemplar work, a framework is proposed to illustrate this method. Its general application is discussed.

A Neural Network Approach to Physical Information Embedding for Optimal Power Flow

With the increasing share of renewable energy in the power system, traditional power flow calculation methods are facing challenges of complexity and efficiency. To address these issues, this paper proposes a new framework for AC optimal power flow analysis based on a physics-informed convolutional neural network (PICNN) approach, which enables the neural network to learn solutions that follow physical laws by embedding the power flow equations and other physical constraints into the loss function of the network. Compared with the traditional power flow calculation method, the calculation speed of this method is improved by 10–30 times. Compared to traditional neural network models, the method provides higher accuracy, with an average increase in accuracy of up to 2.5–10 times. In addition, this paper introduces a methodology to extract worst-case guarantees for violations of the neural network’s predicted power generation constraints, determining the worst possible violation that could result from any neural network output across the entire input domain, and taking appropriate measures to reduce the violation. The method is experimentally shown to be highly accurate and reliable for the AC optimal power flow (AC-OPF) analysis problem, while reducing the dependence on a large amount of labelled data.

Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Based on Encoder-Decoder Network and Multi-Point Focused Linear Attention Mechanism.

Wind energy is a clean energy source that is characterised by significant uncertainty. The electricity generated from wind power also exhibits strong unpredictability, which when integrated can have a substantial impact on the security of the power grid. In the context of integrating wind power into the grid, accurate prediction of wind power generation is crucial in order to minimise damage to the grid system. This paper proposes a novel composite model (MLL-MPFLA) that combines a multilayer perceptron (MLP) and an LSTM-based encoder-decoder network for short-term prediction of wind power generation. In this model, the MLP first extracts multidimensional features from wind power data. Subsequently, an LSTM-based encoder-decoder network explores the temporal characteristics of the data in depth, combining multidimensional features and temporal features for effective prediction. During decoding, an improved focused linear attention mechanism called multi-point focused linear attention is employed. This mechanism enhances prediction accuracy by weighting predictions from different subspaces. A comparative analysis against the MLP, LSTM, LSTM-Attention-LSTM, LSTM-Self_Attention-LSTM, and CNN-LSTM-Attention models demonstrates that the proposed MLL-MPFLA model outperforms the others in terms of MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and R2, thereby validating its predictive performance.

Enhancing wind power generation prediction using relevance assessment-based transfer learning

Accurate wind power generation forecasting can help build a reliable grid; however, the limited dataset makes accurate forecasting results a challenging work. This study introduces a relevant assessment-based transfer learning architecture to solve this problem. Linear fuzzy neighborhood mutual information is adopted to assess the relevance of the source domain selection. A convolutional structure with long-term memory architecture is designed as the deep learning model. The pre-trained model is transferred to the other wind turbines by calculating the linear fuzzy neighborhood mutual information. The proposed model avoids the lack of a dataset from analogous turbines. The simulation results indicate the proposed model surpasses the popular models in forecasting accuracy and exhibits superior time efficiency compared to popular deep-learning approaches.

Forecasting Solar Photovoltaic Power Production: A Comprehensive Review and Innovative Data-Driven Modeling Framework

The intermittent and stochastic nature of Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) necessitates accurate power production prediction for effective scheduling and grid management. This paper presents a comprehensive review conducted with reference to a pioneering, comprehensive, and data-driven framework proposed for solar Photovoltaic (PV) power generation prediction. The systematic and integrating framework comprises three main phases carried out by seven main comprehensive modules for addressing numerous practical difficulties of the prediction task: phase I handles the aspects related to data acquisition (module 1) and manipulation (module 2) in preparation for the development of the prediction scheme; phase II tackles the aspects associated with the development of the prediction model (module 3) and the assessment of its accuracy (module 4), including the quantification of the uncertainty (module 5); and phase III evolves towards enhancing the prediction accuracy by incorporating aspects of context change detection (module 6) and incremental learning when new data become available (module 7). This framework adeptly addresses all facets of solar PV power production prediction, bridging existing gaps and offering a comprehensive solution to inherent challenges. By seamlessly integrating these elements, our approach stands as a robust and versatile tool for enhancing the precision of solar PV power prediction in real-world applications.

Uncertainty analysis of photovoltaic power generation system and intelligent coupling prediction

Accurate prediction of photovoltaic power generation is essential to promoting the active consumption and low-carbon protection. The complex uncertainty of the photovoltaic system itself leads to the deviation in the photovoltaic power prediction. Therefore, we propose a new prediction model for coupled intelligence optimization. First, the photovoltaic power is decomposed into effective mode components using VMD optimized by GWO. Statistical techniques were used to analyze multidimensional uncertainty and extract features, then, optimize the performance of the coupled model. Second, the Zebra optimization (ZOA) establishes an appropriate balance between exploration and utilization to achieve the optimization of the model parameters. In addition, the CNN is used to extract complex features and enhance the correlation between input values and output values. Finally, the power was predicted using the BiLSTM. The results show that applying the statistical technique to the coupled prediction model not only reveals the uncertainty of photovoltaic systems but reduces the prediction error. Among them, the R2 increased by 0.42 %, the values of MAPE, MSE, RMSE, and MAE were reduced to different degrees. It can better optimize the allocation and reasonable consumption of renewable energy, which provides the decision basis for the adjustment of renewable energy structure.

Deep learning-based evaluation of photovoltaic power generation

Photovoltaic (PV) power generation has emerged as a rapidly growing renewable energy source. However, the PV system output’s intermittent and weather-dependent nature poses challenges when integrating with the power grid. These challenges manifest as critical issues, including voltage fluctuations, harmonic distortion, and current deviation, making it difficult to accurately predict grid conditions. Moreover, the spatial variability caused by PV system intermittency further complicates the situation. To address these challenges and ensure efficient grid integration, this paper proposes a comprehensive approach encompassing deep learning-based state prediction of PV power output. The paper introduces the utilization of a long short-term memory (LSTM) model, a type of deep learning architecture, for learning patterns from historical PV power generation data and weather forecasts. The LSTM model enables accurate predictions for effective grid management by capturing long-term dependencies in PV power generation data. Real-world PV power generation data was employed to evaluate the proposed approach. The results demonstrated the significant improvement in PV power generation prediction accuracy achieved by the LSTM model compared to traditional methods. The proposed approach offers a promising solution for addressing the challenges associated with PV system integration into the power grid. It enables enhanced grid planning, resource allocation, and protection measures to accommodate the increasing penetration of solar energy harnessed through PV systems and related power electronics interfaces.