Power Generation In Australia Research Articles

Comparison of machine learning models for the estimation of solar power generation in Australia

Solar power is a renewable energy source that contributes a lot to improving the environmental sustainability of energy production. In Australia, rooftop solar panel systems are installed for power generation. By seeking the optimal installation strategy, people could develop more efficient technologies and systems. In this work, data related to power generation was gathered between January 1 and December 31, 2022. This article only analyzes qualitative data in the dataset. Firstly, the support vector machine (SVM) model is used to compare the results obtained by removing only one qualitative feature at a time with the results obtained by including all features. It is concluded that the shading condition feature has a significant impact on power generation, and then. By comparing the accuracy of K-nearest neighbor (KNN), Logistic Regression, SVM with Radial Basis Function (RBF) kernel, and Decision Tree, it was found that SVM with RBF kernel is the most suitable classification method for the feature of the shading condition.

The Temptation To Go Beyond Conventional Long-Range Strike

Australia is enhancing its long-range strike capabilities through purchasing Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAM) and Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM). The Defence Strategic Review (DSR) intimated the development of hypersonic weapons (Department of Defence, 2023, p. 72). These capabilities are required under the DSR to achieve the strategic outcome of deterrence through denial (Department of Defence, 2023, p. 32). But there is a temptation to take this conversation further into nuclear weapons. Conflating discussions on Nuclear-powered submarines through AUKUS, calls for nuclear power generation in Australia (Dutton, 2023), long-range strike capabilities and deterrence leads to the question—should Australia go the extra distance to have a nuclear long-range strike capability?

A novel hybrid geo-solar thermal design for power generation in Australia

This paper proposes a novel hybrid geo-solar thermal design for power generation in Australia. The low-grade geothermal heat, from shallow resources already flowing to the surface, will be used to off-load the recuperator duty in a supercritical carbon dioxide Brayton cycle for a concentrated solar thermal power plant. Hence, our design is limited to locations with reasonably high DNI at the vicinity of hot flowing wells. Winton in Queensland has been a case of interest where about 80 kg/s of water flows to the surface at a temperature of approximately 80 °C. Accordingly, a case study, pertinent to Winton, has been presented here. Our simulation of a geo-solar thermal power plant with this configuration has showed significant benefits compared to either solar thermal or geothermal plants in isolation. It is shown that the recuperator can be replaced by a less expensive shell and tube heat exchanger and a smaller, and hence less costly, recuperator while the overall efficiency gain is just under 5% compared to that of a solar thermal plant.

The future of coal and renewable power generation in Australia: A review of market trends

Recent estimates of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) indicate a watershed moment where market forces have become the foremost driver in the replacement of coal by renewable sources. Current studies indicate an energy market is emerging in which not only new renewable plants are more cost effective than new coal fired power plants (CFPPs), but also the former is becoming more cost effective than existing CFPPS on a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) basis. However, an accelerated retirement of existing CFPPs depends both on the price received by power plants on a time weighted basis and on the total cost of energy which, in addition to the LCOE, takes into account costs of distribution and storage needed to overcome intermittent supply.We use Australia – which is undergoing the world’s most rapid decarbonisation of power consumption – as a case study to analyse the economics of this transition and to identify its key drivers. In doing so, we provide an updated estimate of the LCOE for renewable and non-renewable power sources for Australia. We confirm that, currently, the LCOE of both solar PV and wind are substantially below that of coal.It is pointed out that LCOEs are an imperfect metric to gauge the rate of transition which will equally depend on total costs of energy and the prices received by energy providers. However, accounting for total costs (most importantly the cost of intermittency and distribution) we show that, combined with other types of non CFPP storage, the time weighted average price received for renewable power is now above that of CFPPs. In Australia, that is being reflected in purchasing power agreements and auction prices for current and future commercial solar and wind projects. Taking into account the strong and continuing downward trajectory of renewables’ total costs we find that a market forces driven further acceleration of the retirement of Australian CFPPs could occur if Government policy does not intervene.

Relevancy of Emission Reduction Fund (ERF) policy towards large-scale deployment of carbon capture technology in black coal-fired power plant

This study implements a single objective multi-constrained optimisation technique to evaluate the relevance of large scale deployment of post-combustion CO2 capture (PCC) technology as an emissions reduction fund (ERF) ‘project’ for black coal power generation in Australia. We target maximum net operating revenue, by generating forecasts of power plant load and CO2 capture rate, and while subject to the dual operational and environmental constraints. Four different hypothetical Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) prices ($AU 5, 15, 25 and 50/tonne CO2) are evaluated, through a single objective multi-constrained optimisation algorithm, for a 7-year contract period between 2016 and 2020 and with a 7.1 MT CO2 of emission baseline. The results indicate that at ACCU price of $AU 25/tonne CO2 (Scenario 3), represents a feasible solution for future deployment of PCC technology under ERF project settings. Across the contract period, PCC plant captures 90% CO2 from the power plant emissions with total plant net operating revenue at approximately $AU 1,765 million. The gross revenue gains from ERF incentive and selling of electricity are at 25% and 75% respectively. These findings point to the value of this computational approach for power plant operators in Australia considering low emissions technologies (viz. PCC) as ERF projects, aiding in their short and medium-term planning. Such an approach is extendable to other countries and regions under varying emissions trading schemes.

Brown coal exit: A market mechanism for regulated closure of highly emissions intensive power stations

In this paper we propose a market mechanism for regulated exit of highly emissions intensive power stations from the electricity grid. The starting point is that there is surplus capacity in coal fired power generation in Australia. In the absence of a carbon price signal, black coal generation capacity may leave the market instead of high emitting brown coal power stations. We lay out options for a mechanism of regulated power station closure using a market mechanism. Plants bid competitively over the payment they require for closure, the regulator chooses the most cost effective bid, and payment for closure is made by the remaining power stations in proportion to their carbon dioxide emissions. This could overcome adverse incentive effects for plants to stay in operation in anticipation of payment for closure and solve the political difficulties and problems of information asymmetry that plague government payments for closure and direct regulation for exit. We explore the issues theoretically and provide empirical illustrations. These suggest that closure of a brown coal fired power station in Australia could yield emissions savings at costs that are lower than the social benefits. The analysis in this paper is applicable to other countries.

The Effect of Climate Change on Power Generation in Australia

Being one of the world's wealthiest countries, Australia is highly sensitive to the impact of global climate change. The rate of climatic devastation such as bushfire, flood, heat wave and cyclone has been increased significantly in last few decades, which is apparently believed to be due to the global climate change. Australian economy is energy intensive especially its electricity generation which is pivotal to its overall industrial and economic growth. Most power generation installations, transmission and distribution are located along the coastal belt of Australia due to the high concentration of population. The concentration is significantly higher in the Eastern and Southern coastal belts. Some of these areas will face the mayhem of global climate change especially on current and future power generation capabilities. However, little information on climate effects on power generation, transmission and distribution is currently available. Therefore, the primary objective of this work is to undertake a parametric study (effect of temperature) on efficiency of power generation and its potential impact on economy. A comprehensive mapping of Australia wide temperature rise and its effect on existing power plants is undertaken. The potentially affected power plants have been identified. The temperature rise and power generation efficiency is also correlated.

PHASING OUT COAL POWER GENERATION IN AUSTRALIA: POLICIES, CORPORATIONS AND UNIONS

Reducing the level of greenhouse gases (GHGs) entering the atmosphere has become a priority for international agencies and national governments in their attempts to avoid costly and catastrophic climate change (Garnaut 2008; IPCC 2007; Stern 2007; World Bank 2010). As conditions of production enabling industrial activity to occur without due consideration of the social and environmental impacts loses its legitimacy, GHG-intensive industries are coming under mounting pressure to reduce emissions and adopt more environmentally sustainable organisational practices. Changes to the conditions of production have implications for business owners, workers, trade unions, and labour processes in GHG-intensive industries. Researchers have documented both supportive and oppositional responses to climate change mitigation policies from the organisational interests found in these ‘polluting’ industries (Aras and Crowther 2009; Blair and Hitchcock 2001; Browne 2002; Dunn 2003; Gelbspan 2004; Leggett 2001; Goodell 2007; Monbiot 2007). These observations contribute to theoretical and conceptual challenges for understanding and explaining the behaviour of the organisational actors in such industries. This paper discusses these theoretical challenges and empirically considers them in relation to corporate and union responses to attempts by Australian governments to phase out a proportion of the country's coal-fired electricity power generators. A critical realist perspective is presented as offering an alternative approach to conceptualising the dilemmas, constraints, and opportunities for corporate and trade union actors in contributing to action on climate change and identifying where their roles and capacities diverge.

The economic viability of nuclear power in a fossil-fuel-rich country: Australia

This paper assesses the economic viability of investment in nuclear power generation in Australia in the future and, in addition, domestic factors which may influence government policy towards such investments. It argues that the structure of the grid in Eastern Australia and the nature of the existing generator mix would require nuclear technology that has similar attributes to current combined cycle gas technology; i.e. modular construction of (relatively) small generating units, load following capability, low unit capital cost, and a general acceptance by the Australian public. The current generation of nuclear plants possesses none of these attributes. Therefore this paper concludes that it is only technology with similar characteristics to some Generation IV nuclear technology concepts that has the potential to be part of Australia's energy mix after 2030.

Reducing Emissions from Coal in Australia: Fiscal and Related Instruments - the Current State of Play

Coal combustion contributes significantly to anthropogenic greenhouse has emissions. This paper examines the role of coal in power generation in Australia, the growth rate in demand for power, and the contribution of coal in the future to the energy mix, in two situations: (1) with, and (2) without changes to taxation and associated policies. The present tax status of coal producers and power generators and consumers is evaluated. Following this the potential impact upon emission levels of such instruments as a carbon tax and an emissions trading scheme (neither of which are presently applied in Australia) is discussed.

Sustainability Metrics for Coal Power Generation in Australia

The basis of this work was to investigate the relative environmental impacts of various power generators knowing that all plants are located in totally different environments and that different receptors will experience different impacts. Based on IChemE sustainability metrics paradigm, we calculated potential environmental indicators (P-EI) that represent the environmental burden of masses of potential pollutants discharged into different receiving media. However, a P-EI may not be of significance, as it may not be expressed at all in different conditions, so to try and include some receiver significance we developed a methodology to take into account some specific environmental indicators (S-EI) that refer to the environmental attributes of a specific site. In this context, we acquired site specific environmental data related to the airsheds and water catchment areas in different locations for a limited number of environmental indicators such as human health (carcinogenic) effects, atmospheric acidification, photochemical (ozone) smog and eutrophication. The S-EI results from this particular analysis show that atmospheric acidification has highest impact value while health risks due to fly ash emissions are considered not to be as significant. This is due to the fact that many coal power plants in Australia are located in low population density air sheds. The contribution of coal power plants to photochemical (ozone) smog and eutrophication were not significant. In this study, we have considered emission related data trends to reflect technology performance (e.g., P-EI indicators) while a real sustainability metric can be associated only with the specific environmental conditions of the relevant sites (e.g., S-EI indicators).

A new method for determining the conversion of low-ash coals using synthetic ash as a tracer

Victorian brown coal represents a significant resource for power generation in Australia. The typical ash content for these coals can be as low as 1% (dry basis). While low ash content is obviously a major advantage for the utilisation of these coals, it is a problem for researchers in that the low ash content leads to large inaccuracies when using the ‘ash tracer’ method to determine coal conversion in flow reactors. To address this problem, a modified ash tracer method has been developed to determine coal conversion which involves adding perlite as an artificial ash to the coal. This method has been successfully applied to measure coal conversion during the pyrolysis of Loy Yang coal in a drop tube furnace.

Modern Environmental Improvement Pathways for the Coal Power Generation Industry in Australia

In this work we assess the pathways for environmental improvement by the coal utilization industry for power generation in Australia. In terms of resources, our findings show that coal is a long term resource of concern as coal reserves are likely to last for the next 500 years or more. However, our analysis indicates that evaporation losses of water in power generation will approach 1000 Gl (gigalitres) per year, equivalent to a consumption of half of the Australian residential population. As Australia is the second driest continent on earth, water consumption by power generators is a resource of immediate concern with regards to sustainability. We also show that coal will continue to play a major role in energy generation in Australia and, hence, there is a need to employ new technologies that can minimize environmental impacts. The major technologies to reduce impacts to air, water and soils are addressed. Of major interest, there is a major potential for developing sequestration processes in Australia, in particular by enhanced coal bed methane (ECBM) recovery at the Bowen Basin, South Sydney Basin and Gunnedah Basin. Having said that, CO2 capture technologies require further development to support any sequestration processes in order to comply with the Kyoto Protocol. Current power generation cycles are thermodynamic limited, with 35-40% efficiencies. To move to a high efficiency cycle, it is required to change technologies of which integrated gasification combined cycle plus fuel cell is the most promising, with efficiencies expected to reach 60-65%. However, risks of moving towards an unproven technology means that power generators are likely to continue to use pulverized fuel technologies, aiming at incremental efficiency improvements (business as usual). As a big picture pathway, power generators are likely to play an increasing role in regional development; in particular EcoParks and reclaiming saline water for treatment as pressures to access fresh water supplies will significantly increase.