Potential Vorticity Framework Research Articles

Potential-vorticity dynamics of troughs and ridges within Rossby wave packets during a 40-year reanalysis period

Abstract. Rossby wave packets (RWPs) are fundamental to midlatitude dynamics and govern weather systems from their individual life cycles to their climatological distributions. Renewed interest in RWPs as precursors to high-impact weather events and in the context of atmospheric predictability motivates this study to revisit the dynamics of RWPs. A quantitative potential-vorticity (PV) framework is employed. Based on the well-established PV thinking of midlatitude dynamics, the processes governing RWP amplitude evolution comprise group propagation of Rossby waves, baroclinic interaction, the impact of upper-tropospheric divergent flow, and direct diabatic PV modification by nonconservative processes. An advantage of the PV framework is that the impact of moist processes is more directly diagnosed than in alternative, established frameworks for RWP dynamics. The mean dynamics of more than 6000 RWPs from 1979–2017 are presented using ERA5 data, complemented with nonconservative tendencies from the Year of Tropical Convection data (available 2008–2010). Confirming a pre-existing model of RWP dynamics, group propagation within RWPs is consistent with linear barotropic theory, and baroclinic and divergent amplifications occur most prominently during the mature stage and towards the trailing edge of RWPs. Refining the pre-existing model, the maximum of divergent amplification occurs in advance of maximum baroclinic growth, and baroclinic interaction tends to weaken RWP amplitude towards the leading edge. “Downstream baroclinic development” is confirmed to provide a valid description of RWP dynamics in both summer and winter, although baroclinic growth is substantially smaller (about 50 %) in summer. Longwave radiative cooling makes a first-order contribution to ridge and trough amplitude, with the potential that this contribution is partly associated with cloud-radiative effects. The direct impact of other nonconservative tendencies, including latent heat release, is an order of magnitude smaller than longwave radiative cooling. Arguably, latent heat release still has a substantial impact on RWPs by invigorating upper-tropospheric divergence. The divergent flow amplifies ridges and weakens troughs. This impact is of leading order and larger than that of baroclinic growth. To the extent that divergence is associated with latent heat release below, our results show that moist processes contribute to the well-known asymmetry in the spatial scale of troughs and ridges. For ridges, divergent amplification is strongly coupled to baroclinic growth and enhanced latent heat release. We thus propose that the life cycle of ridges is best described in terms of downstream moist-baroclinic development. Consistent with theories of moist-baroclinic instability, both the amplitude and the relative location of latent heat release within the developing wave pattern depend on the state of the baroclinic development. Taking this “phasing” aspect into account, we provide some evidence that variability in the strength of divergent ridge amplification can predominantly be attributed to variability in latent heat release below rather than to secondary circulations associated with the dry dynamics of a baroclinic wave.

The intensity and motion of hybrid cyclones in the Australian region in a composite potential vorticity framework

Hybrid cyclones (HCs) in the Australian region typically reach their peak intensity in an amplified flow comprising upper‐tropospheric ridges upstream and downstream of the cyclone and a north–south elongated trough. Nonetheless, there is considerable case‐to‐case variability. Taking a composite viewpoint, the present study investigates how such variations in the upper‐tropospheric potential vorticity (PV) anomalies affect the subsequent intensity and motion of HCs in the Australian region. First, cyclones are grouped into four clusters with structurally similar environments through a k‐means clustering of the 315 K PV anomaly. The clusters reveal that HCs can be associated with a north–south elongated trough (Cluster 1), a PV cut‐off (Cluster 2), and cyclonically breaking troughs (Clusters 3 and 4). Second, the effect of these features on the intensity and tracks is quantified using piecewise PV inversion. The maximum intensity of cyclones in Cluster 1 is largely determined by their upper‐tropospheric cyclonic PV anomaly. Conversely, diabatically generated lower‐tropospheric PV anomalies dominate the intensity of cyclones in Clusters 3 and 4. In these two clusters, the cyclonically breaking trough and a downstream ridge induce an anomalous northeasterly low‐level flow across the cyclone centre. The downstream ridge is most pronounced in Cluster 4, leading to the greatest poleward cyclone displacement compared to the other clusters. In Clusters 1 and 2, the upper‐level PV anomaly primarily slows the eastward motion of the cyclones. In agreement with recent idealized studies, the analysis suggests that the effect of upper‐tropospheric PV anomalies on the poleward motion of HCs is analogous to the beta‐gyres that influence the motion of tropical cyclones.

Potential Vorticity Dynamics of Forecast Errors: A Quantitative Case Study

Abstract Synoptic-scale error growth near the tropopause is investigated from a process-based perspective. Following previous work, a potential vorticity (PV) error tendency equation is derived and partitioned into individual contributions to yield insight into the processes governing error growth near the tropopause. Importantly, we focus here on the further amplification of preexisting errors and not on the origin of errors. The individual contributions to error growth are quantified in a case study of a 6-day forecast. In this case, localized mesoscale error maxima have formed by forecast day 2. These maxima organize into a wavelike pattern and reach the Rossby wave scale around forecast day 6. Error growth occurs most prominently within the Atlantic and Pacific Rossby wave patterns. In our PV framework, the error growth is dominated by the contribution of upper-level, near-tropopause PV anomalies (near-tropopause dynamics). Significant contributions from upper-tropospheric divergent flow (prominently associated with latent heat release below) and lower-tropospheric anomalies [tropospheric-deep (i.e., baroclinic) interaction] are associated with a misrepresentation of the surface cyclone development in the forecast. These contributions are, in general, of smaller importance to error growth than near-tropopause dynamics. This result indicates that the mesoscale errors generated near the tropopause do not primarily project on differences in the subsequent baroclinic growth, but instead directly project on the tropopause evolution and amplify because of differences in the nonlinear Rossby wave dynamics.

A potential vorticity‐based index for the East Asian winter monsoon

AbstractA novel dynamically based index that reflects the strength of the regional potential vorticity (PV) intrusion on the 300 K isentropic surface is proposed as a reliable measure of East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) intensity. The index captures essential aspects of the EAWM, including its climatic influences on East Asia, its continuous weakening trend since the 1980s, and its close relationships with the Siberian high, Arctic Oscillation, and El Niño. The use of a potential vorticity framework enables the definition of a new metric called continuous PV intrusion duration (CPVID), which can be used to monitor and explain wintertime weather extremes like the extreme snowfall event that occurred in south China during January 2008. The CPVID of March is comparable to that of December, indicating that data from this month should be included in estimates of the strength of the EAWM.

Composite Structure of Tropopause Polar Cyclones

Abstract Tropopause polar vortices are coherent circulation features based on the tropopause in polar regions. They are a common feature of the Arctic, with typical radii less than 1500 km and lifetimes that may exceed 1 month. The Arctic is a particularly favorable region for these features due to isolation from the horizontal wind shear associated with the midlatitude jet stream, which may destroy the vortical circulation. Intensification of cyclonic tropopause polar vortices is examined here using an Ertel potential vorticity framework to test the hypothesis that there is an average tendency for diabatic effects to intensify the vortices due to enhanced upper-tropospheric radiative cooling within the vortices. Data for the analysis are derived from numerical simulations of a large sample of observed cyclonic vortices over the Canadian Arctic. Results show that there is on average a net tendency to create potential vorticity in the vortex, and hence intensify cyclones, and that the tendency is radiatively driven. While the effects of latent heating are considerable, they are smaller in magnitude, and all other diabatic processes have a negligible effect on vortex intensity.

Potential Vorticity (PV) Thinking in Operations: The Utility of Nonconservation

Abstract The use of the potential vorticity (PV) framework by operational forecasters is advocated through case examples that demonstrate its utility for interpreting and evaluating numerical weather prediction (NWP) model output for weather systems characterized by strong latent heat release (LHR). The interpretation of the dynamical influence of LHR is straightforward in the PV framework; LHR can lead to the generation of lower-tropospheric cyclonic PV anomalies. These anomalies can be related to meteorological phenomena including extratropical cyclones and low-level jets (LLJs), which can impact lower-tropospheric moisture transport. The nonconservation of PV in the presence of LHR results in a modification of the PV distribution that can be identified in NWP model output and evaluated through a comparison with observations and high-frequency gridded analyses. This methodology, along with the application of PV-based interpretation, can help forecasters identify aspects of NWP model solutions that are driven by LHR; such features are often characterized by increased uncertainty due to difficulties in model representation of precipitation amount and latent heating distributions, particularly for convective systems. Misrepresentation of the intensity and/or distribution of LHR in NWP model forecasts can generate errors that propagate through the model solution with time, potentially degrading the representation of cyclones and LLJs in the model forecast. The PV framework provides human forecasters with a means to evaluate NWP model forecasts in a way that facilitates recognition of when and how value may be added by modifying NWP guidance. This utility is demonstrated in case examples of coastal extratropical cyclogenesis and LLJ enhancement. Information is provided regarding tools developed for applying PV-based techniques in an operational setting.

Numerical Simulation of Baroclinic Waves with a Parameterized Boundary Layer

Abstract A dry three-dimensional baroclinic life cycle model is used to investigate the role of turbulent fluxes of heat and momentum within the boundary layer on midlatitude cyclones. Simulations are performed of life cycles for two basic states: with and without turbulent fluxes. The different basic states produce cyclones with contrasting frontal and mesoscale flow structures. The analysis focuses on the generation of potential vorticity (PV) in the boundary layer and its subsequent transport into the free troposphere. The dynamic mechanism through which friction mitigates a barotropic vortex is that of Ekman pumping. This has often been assumed to also be the dominant mechanism for baroclinic developments. The PV framework highlights an additional, baroclinic mechanism. Positive PV is generated baroclinically due to friction to the northeast of a surface low and is transported out of the boundary layer by a cyclonic conveyor belt flow. The result is an anomaly of increased static stability in the lower troposphere, which restricts the growth of the baroclinic wave. The reduced coupling between lower and upper levels can be sufficient to change the character of the upper-level evolution of the mature wave. The basic features of the baroclinic damping mechanism are robust for different frontal structures, with and without turbulent heat fluxes, and for the range of surface roughness found over the oceans.

Impacts of Waves and Sea Spray on Midlatitude Storm Structure and Intensity

Abstract A coupled atmosphere–wave–sea spray model system is used to evaluate the combined impacts of spray evaporation and wave drag on midlatitude storms. The focus of this paper is on the role of air–sea fluxes on storm intensity and development, and related impacts on the structure of the atmospheric boundary layer. The composite model system consists of the Canadian Mesoscale Compressible Community atmospheric model coupled to the operational wave model WAVEWATCH III, and a recent bulk parameterization for heat fluxes due to sea spray. The case studies are extratropical Hurricane Earl (in 1998) and two intense winter storms from 2000 and 2002, hereafter denoted “superbomb” and “bomb,” respectively. The results show that sea spray tends to intensify storms, whereas wave-related drag tends to weaken storms. The mechanisms by which spray and wave-related drag can influence storm intensity are quite different. When wind speeds are high and sea surface temperatures warm, spray can significantly increase the surface heat fluxes. By comparison, momentum fluxes related to wave drag are important over regions of the storm where young, newly generated waves are prevalent, for example during the rapid development phase of the storm. These momentum fluxes decrease in areas where the storm waves reach maturity. The collective influence of spray and waves on storm intensity depends on their occurrence in the early stages of a storm’s rapid intensification phase, and their spatial distribution with respect to the storm center. Moreover, for the case of the superbomb, a potential vorticity framework is used to show the relative importance of these surface flux impacts compared with baroclinic processes.

Cross-Tropopause Mass Exchange and Potential Vorticity Budget in a Simulated Tropopause Folding

Abstract To study stratosphere–troposphere exchange, an approach based on the nonconservation of potential vorticity (PV) is developed; this approach arises naturally if one defines the tropopause in terms of PV. The evolution of a tropopause fold simulated by a mesoscale model is studied, as well as the evolution of PV at the tropopause level. The PV framework also permits the identification of the physical processes responsible for the cross-tropopause exchange as either diffusive or diabatic. In this model simulation, the diabatic processes are found to be the most important in the exchange. In particular, it is found that the negative heating gradient in the region of the warm sector of the surface cyclone is responsible for most of the diabatic exchange across the tropopause. The mass exchange during the tropopause folding event is estimated to be around 4.9 × 1014 kg in four days over the domain considered (1600 × 2000 km). This number is shown to correspond to the net difference between exchange fr...

Comments on “Decomposing the Atmospheric Flow Using Potential Vorticity Framework”

Comments on “Decomposing the Atmospheric Flow Using Potential Vorticity Framework”

A Case Study Diagnosis of the Formation of an Upper-Level Cutoff Cyclonic Circulation over the Eastern United States

Abstract The synoptic-scale evolution during the formation phase of a midtropospheric cutoff cyclonic circulation over the eastern United States is diagnosed within the potential vorticity framework using the GALE (Genesis of Atlantic Lows Experiment) case of 18–19 January 1986. The study examines 1) the precursor flow evolution prior to cutoff cyclone formation; 2) the wind, mass, and potential vorticity evolution during the 2-day period encompassing cutoff formation; and 3) the relative contribution of upper-versus lower-tropospheric forcing on the quasigeostrophic height tendency field prior to and during cutoff formation. The primary large-scale features prior to cutoff cyclone formation are an amplifying ridge over the western United States and eastern North Pacific and a diffluent trough over the central United States. The primary smaller-scale feature prior to cutoff formation is a short-wave trough-jet streak system that propagates through the longer-wave-amplifying ridge, and then intensifies upo...