Potential Vorticity Field Research Articles

A stochastic precipitating quasi-geostrophic model

Efficient and effective modeling of complex systems, incorporating cloud physics and precipitation, is essential for accurate climate modeling and forecasting. However, simulating these systems is computationally demanding since microphysics has crucial contributions to the dynamics of moisture and precipitation. In this paper, appropriate stochastic models are developed for the phase-transition dynamics of water, focusing on the precipitating quasi-geostrophic (PQG) model as a prototype. By treating the moisture, phase transitions, and latent heat release as integral components of the system, the PQG model constitutes a set of partial differential equations (PDEs) that involve Heaviside nonlinearities due to phase changes of water. Despite systematically characterizing the precipitation physics, expensive iterative algorithms are needed to find a PDE inversion at each numerical integration time step. As a crucial step toward building an effective stochastic model, a computationally efficient Markov jump process is designed to randomly simulate transitions between saturated and unsaturated states that avoids using the expensive iterative solver. The transition rates, which are deterministic, are derived from the physical fields, guaranteeing physical and statistical consistency with nature. Furthermore, to maintain the consistent spatial pattern of precipitation, the stochastic model incorporates an adaptive parameterization that automatically adjusts the transitions based on spatial information. Numerical tests show the stochastic model retains critical properties of the original PQG system while significantly reducing computational demands. It accurately captures observed precipitation patterns, including the spatial distribution and temporal variability of rainfall, alongside reproducing essential dynamic features such as potential vorticity fields and zonal mean flows.

Observations, Remote Sensing, and Model Simulation to Analyze Southern Brazil Antarctic Ozone Hole Influence

This paper presents the observational, remote sensing, and model simulation used to analyze southern Brazil Antarctic ozone hole influence (SBAOHI) events that occurred between 2005 and 2014. To analyze it, we use total ozone column (TOC) data provided by a Brewer spectrophotometer (BS) and the OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument). In addition to the AURA/MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder) instrument, satellite ozone profiles were utilized with DYBAL (Dynamical Barrier Localization) code in the MIMOSA (Modélisation Isentrope du Transport Mésoéchelle de l’Ozone Stratosphérique par Advection) model Potential Vorticity (PV) fields. TOC has 7.0 ± 2.9 DU reductions average in 62 events. October has more events (30.7%). Polar tongue events are 19.3% in total, being more frequently observed in October (50% of cases), with medium intensity (58.2%), and in the stratosphere medium levels (55.0%). Already, polar filament events (80.7%) are more frequent in September (32.0%), with medium intensity (42.0%), and stratosphere medium levels (40.7%).

Process-based classification of Mediterranean cyclones using potential vorticity

Abstract. Mediterranean cyclones (MCs) govern extreme weather events across the Euro-African Basin, affecting the lives of hundreds of millions. Despite many studies addressing MCs in the last few decades, their correct simulation and prediction remain a significant challenge to the present day, which may be attributed to the large variability among MCs. Past classifications of MCs are primarily based on geographical and/or seasonal separations; however, here we focus on cyclone genesis and deepening mechanisms. A variety of processes combine to govern MC genesis and evolution, including adiabatic and diabatic processes, topographic influences, land–sea contrasts, and local temperature anomalies. As each process bears a distinct signature on the potential vorticity (PV) field, a PV approach is used to distinguish among different “types” of MCs. Here, a combined cyclone-tracking algorithm is used to detect 3190 Mediterranean cyclone tracks in ECMWF ERA5 from 1979–2020. Cyclone-centered, upper-level isentropic PV structures in the peak time of each cyclone track are classified using a self-organizing map (SOM). The SOM analysis reveals nine classes of Mediterranean cyclones, with distinct Rossby-wave-breaking patterns, discernible in corresponding PV structures. Although classified by upper-level PV structures, each class shows different contributions of lower-tropospheric PV and flow structures down to the surface. Unique cyclone life cycle characteristics, associated hazards (precipitation, winds, and temperature anomalies), and long-term trends, as well as synoptic, thermal, dynamical, seasonal, and geographical features of each cyclone class, indicate dominant processes in their evolution. Among others, the classification reveals the importance of topographically induced Rossby wave breaking to the generation of the most extreme Mediterranean cyclones. These results enhance our understanding of MC predictability by linking the large-scale Rossby wave formations and life cycles to coherent classes of under-predicted cyclone aspects.

Examining the dynamics of a Borneo vortex using a balance approximation tool

Abstract. Cyclonic vortices that are weaker than tropical storm category can bring heavy precipitation as they propagate across the South China Sea and surrounding countries. Here we investigate the structure and dynamics responsible for the intensification of a Borneo vortex that moved from the north of Borneo across the South China Sea and impacted Vietnam and Thailand in late October 2018. This case study is examined using Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) simulations and a semi-geotriptic (SGT) balance approximation tool. Satellite observations and a MetUM simulation with 4.4 km grid initialised at 12:00 UTC on 21 October 2018 show that the westward-moving vortex is characterised by a coherent maximum in total column water and by a comma-shaped precipitation structure with the heaviest rainfall to the northwest of the circulation centre. The Borneo vortex comprises a low-level cyclonic circulation and a mid-level wave embedded in the background easterly shear flow, which strengthens with height up to around 7 km. Despite being in the tropics at 6∘ N, the low-level vortex and mid-level wave are well represented by SGT balance dynamics. The mid-level wave propagates along a vertical gradient in moist stability, i.e. the product between the specific humidity and the static stability, at 4.5 to 5 km and is characterised by a coherent signature in the potential vorticity, meridional wind, and balanced vertical velocity fields. The vertical motion is dominated by coupling with diabatic heating and is shifted relative to the potential vorticity so that the diabatic wave propagates westwards, relative to the flow, at a rate consistent with prediction from moist semi-geostrophic theory. Initial vortex development at low levels is consistent with baroclinic growth initiated by the mid-level diabatic Rossby wave, which propagates on baroclinic shear flow on the southern flank of a large-scale cold surge.

Arctic stratosphere changes in the 21st century in the Earth system model SOCOLv4

Two ensemble simulations of a new Earth system model (ESM) SOCOLv4 (SOlar Climate Ozone Links, version 4) for the period from 2015 to 2099 under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and severe (SSP5-8.5) scenarios of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission growth were analyzed to investigate changes in key dynamical processes relevant for Arctic stratospheric ozone. The model shows a 5–10 K cooling and 5%–20% humidity increase in the Arctic lower–upper stratosphere in March (when the most considerable ozone depletion may occur) between 2080–2099 and 2015–2034. The minimal temperature in the lower polar stratosphere in March, which defines the strength of ozone depletion, appears when the zonal mean meridional heat flux in the lower stratosphere in the preceding January–February is the lowest. In the late 21st century, the strengthening of the zonal mean meridional heat flux with a maximum of up to 20 K m/s (∼25%) in the upper stratosphere close to 70°N in January–February is obtained in the moderate scenario of GHG emission, while only a slight increase in this parameter over 50 N–60 N with the maximum up to 5 K m/s in the upper stratosphere and a decrease with the comparable values over the high latitudes is revealed in the severe GHG emission scenario. Although the model simulations confirm the expected ozone layer recovery, particularly total ozone minimum values inside the Arctic polar cap in March throughout the 21st century are characterized by a positive trend in both scenarios, the large-scale negative ozone anomalies in March up to −80 DU–100 DU, comparable to the second lowest ones observed in March 2011 but weaker than record values in March 2020, are possible in the Arctic until the late 21st century. The volume of low stratospheric air with temperatures below the solid nitric acid trihydrate polar stratospheric cloud (PSC NAT) formation threshold is reconstructed from 3D potential vorticity and temperature fields inside the stratospheric polar vortex. A significant positive trend is shown in this parameter in March in the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Furthermore, according to the model data, an increase in the polar vortex isolation throughout the 21st century indicates its possible strengthening in the lower stratosphere. Positive trends of the surface area density (SAD) of PSC NAT particles in March in the lower Arctic stratosphere over the period of 2015–2099 are significant in the severe GHG emission scenario. The polar vortex longitudinal shift toward northern Eurasia is expected in the lower stratosphere in the late 21st century in both scenarios. The statistically significant long-term stratospheric sulfuric acid aerosol trend in March is expected only in the SSP5.8-5 scenario, most probably due to cooler stratosphere and stronger Brewer–Dobson circulation intensification. Both scenarios predict an increase in the residual meridional circulation (RMC) in March by the end of the 21st century. In some regions of the stratosphere, the RMC enhancement under the severe GHG scenario can exceed 20%.

Shallow-water modelling of the atmospheric circulation regimes of brown dwarfs and their observable features

ABSTRACTObservations of time-varying thermal emission from brown dwarfs suggest that they have large-scale atmospheric circulation. The magnitude of this variability ranges from a few per cent to tens of per cent, implying a range of sizes of atmospheric perturbations. Periodograms of phase curves of the thermal emission reveal a range of peaks with different periods and widths, suggesting different atmospheric flow speeds and directions. This implies a variety of atmospheric circulations in the different brown dwarfs observed to date, but there is no general theoretical understanding of the circulation regimes these objects can support, and the resulting sizes and velocities of their atmospheric features. We therefore use an idealized 2D shallow-water model of a brown dwarf atmosphere to understand their potential large-scale circulation regimes. We non-dimensionalize the model to reduce the number of input parameters to two non-dimensional numbers: the thermal Rossby number and the non-dimensional radiative time-scale. This allows us to define a parameter space that bounds the entire range of brown dwarf behaviour possible in our model. We analyse the resulting height, velocity, and potential vorticity fields in this parameter space, and simulate observed phase curve and periodograms for comparison with real observations. We use our results to qualitatively define four circulation regimes, which we hope will be useful for interpreting observations and for guiding simulations with more detailed physical models.

Dynamical footprints of hurricanes in the tropical dynamics.

Hurricanes-and more broadly tropical cyclones-are high-impact weather phenomena whose adverse socio-economic and ecosystem impacts affect a considerable part of the global population. Despite our reasonably robust meteorological understanding of tropical cyclones, we still face outstanding challenges for their numerical simulations. Consequently, future changes in the frequency of occurrence and intensity of tropical cyclones are still debated. Here, we diagnose possible reasons for the poor representation of tropical cyclones in numerical models, by considering the cyclones as chaotic dynamical systems. We follow 197 tropical cyclones which occurred between 2010 and 2020 in the North Atlantic using the HURDAT2 and ERA5 data sets. We measure the cyclones instantaneous number of active degrees of freedom (local dimension) and the persistence of their sea-level pressure and potential vorticity fields. During the most intense phases of the cyclones, and specifically when cyclones reach hurricane strength, there is a collapse of degrees of freedom and an increase in persistence. The large dependence of hurricanes dynamical characteristics on intensity suggests the need for adaptive parametrization schemes which take into account the dependence of the cyclone's phase, in analogy with high-dissipation intermittent events in turbulent flows.

Tropical cyclone rapid intensification and the excitation of inertia-gravity waves on the edges of an evolving potential vorticity structure

The problem of tropical cyclone rapid intensification is reduced to a potential vorticity (PV) equation and a second order, inhomogeneous, partial differential equation for the azimuthal wind. The latter equation has the form of a Klein-Gordon equation, the right-hand side of which involves the radial derivative of the evolving PV field. When the PV field evolves rapidly, inertia-gravity waves are excited at the edges of the evolving PV structure. In contrast, when the PV field evolves slowly, the second order time derivative term in the Klein-Gordon equation is negligible, inertia-gravity waves are not excited, and the equation reduces to an invertibility principle for the PV. The above concepts are presented in the context of an axisymmetric shallow water model, in both its linear and nonlinear forms. The nonlinear results show a remarkable sensitivity of vortex intensification to the percentage of mass that is diabatically removed from the region inside a given absolute angular momentum surface.

Application of potential vorticity tendency diagnosis method to high-resolution simulation of tropical cyclones

As the grid spacing in the numerical simulation decreases to ∼1 km, the potential vorticity (PV) structure of the simulated tropical cyclone (TC) is an annular tower of high PV with low PV in the eye and the resulting reversal of the radial PV gradient in the inner core is subject to dynamic instability, leading to complicated small-scale features in the PV field. While the PV tendency (PVT) method has been successfully used to diagnose TC motion in numerical simulations with relatively coarse resolution (∼10 km), it has been found that the PVT diagnosis method fails in the TC simulation with grid spacing of ∼1 km. This study reveals that the failure of the PVT diagnosis method in the high-resolution simulation with grid spacing of ∼1 km arises from the induced small-scale features in the PV field. The high localized PV features do not affect TC motion, but make it difficult to calculate the gradient of azimuthal mean PV when the time interval of the model output is ∼1 h. It is suggested that the PVT method can be applied to high-resolution simulations by increasing the time interval of the model output and/or smoothing the model output to reduce the influence of small-scale PV features.

Persistence of the Large‐Scale Interior Deep Ocean Circulation in Global Repeat Hydrographic Sections

AbstractAn assumption of steady‐state is a common basis for deep ocean circulation theory and observational strategies. We use GO‐SHIP's Easy Ocean uniformly gridded CTD data from repeat hydrographic sections to test this assumption. In particular, we ask: for what regions of the world ocean is there evidence that the planetary scale deep geostrophic shear and potential vorticity fields, related to potential density gradients, are in quasi‐steady‐state over the modern observational period? We find that away from boundary currents, planetary‐scale potential density gradients in most parts of the deep ocean are stable from occupation to occupation, with higher variability in a few expected regions and for shorter sections. Median standard errors from all sections are 12%–17% in the Pacific, 10%–23% in the Atlantic, and 11%–36% in the Indian Ocean, with the highest values at 2,000 dbar and lowest at 4,000 dbar.

Dynamics of forecast‐error growth along cut‐off Sanchez and its consequence for the prediction of a high‐impact weather event over southern France

AbstractThe representation of a high‐impact weather (HIW) event over southern France is evaluated in Météo‐France forecasts, and the sensitivity of the HIW forecast to the upstream upper‐level flow and the Mediterranean and North Atlantic humidity structure prior to the event is quantified. The event occurred in October 2016 during the international field experiment NAWDEX. The approach of an upper‐level potential vorticity (PV) cut‐off, referred to as cut‐off , triggered extreme precipitation over southern France. Many 2‐ to 7‐day ensemble forecasts predicted the maximum of the extreme precipitation and the location of the upper‐level PV cut‐off too far to the east. This eastward shift primarily resulted from an underestimation of the cut‐off intensity two days before the HIW and the subsequent downstream propagation and amplification of these errors in the vicinity of . Improving the representation of the cut‐off two days before the event significantly improved the forecast quality. Another error source were inaccuracies in the moisture structure in the eastern North Atlantic. Specifically, an underestimation of the moisture in the warm conveyor belt inflow led to errors in the low‐ and upper‐level circulation that eventually contributed to the eastward shift of the HIW two days later. Corrections in the eastern North Atlantic humidity structure further improved the forecast quality. On the other hand, corrections in the Mediterranean humidity structure had only a small impact on the accuracy of the forecast. The findings illustrate the importance of downstream error propagation and moist diabatic processes for the prediction of extreme weather over Europe, and demonstrate how targeted changes in the PV and humidity field a few days in advance can improve the quality of the forecasts.

Piecewise Potential Vorticity Inversion without Far-Field Response?

AbstractGiven a flow domain D with subdomains D1 and D2, piecewise potential vorticity inversion (PPVI) inverts a potential vorticity (PV) anomaly in D2 and assumes vanishing PV in D1 where boundary conditions must be taken into account. It is a widely held view that the PV anomaly exerts a far-field influence on D1, which is revealed by PPVI. Tests of this assertion are conducted using a simple quasigeostrophic model where an upper layer D2 contains a PV anomaly and D1 is the layer underneath. This anomaly is inverted. Any downward physical impact of PV in D2 must also be represented in the results of a downward piecewise density inversion (PDI) based on the hydrostatic relation and the density in D2 as following from PPVI. There is no doubt about the impact of the mass in D2 on the flow in the lower layer D1. Thus results of PPVI and PDI have to agree closely. First, PPVI is applied to a locally confined PV anomaly in D2. There is no far-field “response” in D1 if stationarity is imposed. Modifications of boundary conditions lead to “induced” flows in D1 but the results of PPVI and PDI differ widely. This leads to a simple proof that there is no physical far-field influence of PV anomalies in D2. Wave patterns of the streamfunction restricted to D2 are prescribed in a second series of tests. The related PV anomalies are obtained by differentiation and are also confined to D2 in this case. This approach illustrates the basic procedure to derive PV fields from observations which excludes a far-field response.

Characterizing quasi-biweekly variability of the Asian monsoon anticyclone using potential vorticity and large-scale geopotential height field

Abstract. The spatial pattern of subseasonal variability of the Asian monsoon anticyclone is analyzed using long-term reanalysis data, focusing on the large-scale longitudinal movement. The air inside the anticyclone is quantified by a thickness-weighted low-PV (potential vorticity) area on an isentropic surface. It is shown that the longitudinal movement of the air inside the Asian monsoon anticyclone has a timescale of 1 to 2 weeks, which is shorter than the monthly dominant timescale of the variability in the anticyclone intensity. The movement of the anticyclonic air is suggested to be largely controlled by passive advection. The typical time evolution of the variability pattern, explained by two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) components of 100 hPa geopotential height, shows large-scale geopotential anomalies moving westward spanning from low to middle latitudes. This corresponds well with the rapid westward movement of low-PV air known as “eddy shedding” and following the eastward retreat of the anticyclonic air. The two EOF components can also explain the bimodal longitudinal distribution of geopotential maximum location.

From Mixing to the Large Scale Circulation: How the Inverse Cascade Is Involved in the Formation of the Subsurface Currents in the Gulf of Guinea

In this paper, we analyse the results from a numerical model at high resolution. We focus on the formation and maintenance of subsurface equatorial currents in the Gulf of Guinea and we base our analysis on the evolution of potential vorticity (PV). We highlight the link between submesoscale processes (involving mixing, friction and filamentation), mesoscale vortices and the mean currents in the area. In the simulation, eastward currents, the South and North Equatorial Undercurrents (SEUC and NEUC respectively) and the Guinea Undercurrent (GUC), are shown to be linked to the westward currents located equatorward. We show that east of 20° W, both westward and eastward currents are associated with the spreading of PV tongues by mesoscale vortices. The Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) brings salty waters into the Gulf of Guinea. Mixing diffuses the salty anomaly downward. Meridional advection, mixing and friction are involved in the formation of fluid parcels with PV anomalies in the lower part and below the pycnocline, north and south of the EUC, in the Gulf of Guinea. These parcels gradually merge and vertically align, forming nonlinear anticyclonic vortices that propagate westward, spreading and horizontally mixing their PV content by stirring filamentation and diffusion, up to 20° W. When averaged over time, this creates regions of nearly homogeneous PV within zonal bands between 1.5° and 5° S or N. This mean PV field is associated with westward and eastward zonal jets flanking the EUC with the homogeneous PV tongues corresponding to the westward currents, and the strong PV gradient regions at their edges corresponding to the eastward currents. Mesoscale vortices strongly modulate the mean fields explaining the high spatial and temporal variability of the jets.

Topographic Rossby waves in a polar basin

Abstract

Potential Vorticity Mixing and Rapid Intensification in the Numerically Simulated Supertyphoon Haiyan (2013)

AbstractThe inner-core dynamics of Supertyphoon Haiyan (2013) undergoing rapid intensification (RI) are studied with a 2-km-resolution cloud-resolving model simulation. The potential vorticity (PV) field in the simulated storm reveals an elliptical and polygonal-shaped eyewall at the low and middle levels during RI onset. The PV budget analysis confirms the importance of PV mixing at this stage, that is, the asymmetric transport of diabatically generated PV to the storm center from the eyewall and the ejection of PV filaments outside the eyewall. We employ a piecewise PV inversion (PPVI) and an omega equation to interpret the model results in balanced dynamics. The omega equation diagnosis suggests eye dynamical warming is associated with the PV mixing. The PPVI indicates that PV mixing accounts for about 50% of the central pressure fall during RI onset. The decrease of central pressure enhances the boundary layer (BL) inflow. The BL inflow leads to contraction of the radius of the maximum tangential wind (RMW) and the formation of a symmetric convective PV tower inside the RMW. The eye in the later stage of the RI is warmed by the subsidence associated with the convective PV towers. The results suggest that the pressure change associated with PV mixing, the increase of the symmetric BL radial inflow, and the development of a symmetric convective PV tower are the essential collaborating dynamics for RI. An experiment with 500-m resolution shows that the convergence of BL inflow can lead to an updraft magnitude of 20 m s−1and to a convective PV tower with a peak value of 200 PVU (1 PVU = 10−6K kg−1m2s−1).

Dynamic and Thermodynamic Modulators of European Atmospheric Rivers

AbstractLarge-scale analysis of the dynamic and thermodynamic properties of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) over western Europe is performed utilizing 38 years of the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), reanalysis dataset. A climatology of landfalling ARs from 1980 to 2017 is developed using a combination of integrated water vapor transport (IVT) calculations and a detection algorithm, which identified 578 ARs over the study period. Examination of the upper-level potential vorticity (PV) fields shows that 73% of these AR events are related to anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking (RWB), a dynamic feature which has been shown to play a role in AR strength and structure. Atmospheric river variability is also found to be closely tied to jet-stream latitude modulation by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), such that during a positive NAO the North Atlantic jet is shifted north, creating an environment that is more favorable for anticyclonic RWB and AR landfalls over northern Europe, and during a negative NAO it is shifted south, creating such an environment over southern Europe.Through the use of linear regression analysis, AR strength is shown to be dependent on atmospheric moisture availability, which is found to increase as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) increase. Therefore, in a warming climate warmer SSTs leading to higher atmospheric moisture availability will result in an increase in the average strength and intensity of ARs over western Europe—a trend that has already been observed.

Optimal balance for rotating shallow water in primitive variables

ABSTRACT Optimal balance is a near-optimal computational algorithm for nonlinear mode decomposition of geophysical flows into balanced and unbalanced components. It was first proposed as “optimal potential vorticity balance” by Viúdez and Dritschel [J. Fluid Mech., 2004, 521, 343] in the specific setting of semi-Lagrangian potential vorticity-based numerical codes. Later, it was recognised as an instance of the more general principle of adiabatic invariance of fast degrees of motion under slow perturbations. From this point of view, the system is slowly deformed from a linearised configuration to the full nonlinear dynamics. In the former, linear analysis yields an exact separation of balanced and unbalanced flow. In the latter, a given base-point coordinate, e.g. the height or potential vorticity field, can be matched. This formulation leads to a boundary value problem in time. In this paper, we show that this more general viewpoint leads to practical implementations of optimal balance on top of a primitive variables (here, velocity-height variables) numerical code. We identify preferred choices for several design parameters. The most critical choices concern the linear projector onto the slow modes at the linear-end boundary and the choice of base-point coordinate at the nonlinear end. We find that, even though the evolutionary model is formulated in primitive variables, potential vorticity based end-point conditions are advantageous. In particular, the only universally robust linear projector is the oblique projector onto the Rossby modes along the gravity-wave modes, which can be interpreted as the distinct non-orthogonal projector onto the Rossby modes that preserves the linear potential vorticity. Hence, the projector can be formulated as an elliptic partial differential equation which holds promise for using the method to produce an accurate nonlinear mode decomposition for more general models without the need to resort to asymptotic analysis.

Explosive Cyclogenesis around the Korean Peninsula in May 2016 from a Potential Vorticity Perspective: Case Study and Numerical Simulations

An explosive cyclone event that occurred near the Korean Peninsula in early May 2016 is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to examine the developmental mechanisms of the explosive cyclone. After confirming that the WRF model reproduces the synoptic environments and main features of the event well, the favorable environmental conditions for the rapid development of the cyclone are analyzed, and the explosive development mechanisms of the cyclone are investigated with perturbation potential vorticity (PV) fields. The piecewise PV inversion method is used to identify the dynamically relevant meteorological fields associated with each perturbation PV anomaly. The rapid deepening of the surface cyclone was influenced by both adiabatic (an upper tropospheric PV anomaly) and diabatic (a low-level PV anomaly associated with condensational heating) processes, while the baroclinic processes in the lower troposphere had the smallest contribution. In the explosive phase of the cyclone life cycle, the diabatically generated PV anomalies associated with condensational heating induced by the ascending air in the warm conveyor belt are the most important factors for the initial intensity of the cyclone. The upper-level forcing is the most important factor in the evolution of the cyclone’s track, but it is of secondary importance for the initial strong deepening.

The Climatological Impact of Recurving North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones on Downstream Extreme Precipitation Events

Abstract This study provides the first climatological assessment of the impact of recurving North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) on downstream precipitation extremes. The response is evaluated based on time-lagged composites for 146 recurving TCs between 1979 and 2013 and quantified by the area affected by precipitation extremes (PEA) in a domain shifted relative to the TC–jet interaction location, which often encompasses major parts of Europe. The statistical significance of the PEA response to the TCs is determined using a novel bootstrapping technique based on flow analogs. A statistically significant increase in PEA is found between lags +42 and +90 h after the TC–jet interaction, with a doubling of the PEA compared to analog cases without recurving TCs. A K-means clustering applied to the natural logarithm of potential vorticity fields [ln(PV)] around the TC–jet interaction points reveals four main flow configurations of North Atlantic TC–jet interactions. Two main mechanisms by which recurving TCs can foster precipitation extremes farther downstream emerge: 1) an “atmospheric river–like” mechanism, with anomalously high integrated vapor transport (IVT) downstream of the recurving TCs and 2) a “downstream-development” mechanism, with anomalously high IVT ahead of a downstream trough. Hereby, the analog bootstrapping technique separates the impact of the TC from that of the midlatitude flow’s natural evolution on the PEA formation. This analysis reveals an unequivocal effect of the TCs for the atmospheric river–like cases, while for the downstream-development cases, a substantial increase in PEA is also found in the analogs without a TC.