Potential Unintended Consequences Research Articles

Evaluating key evidence and formulating regulatory alternatives regarding the UK's Hunting Trophies (Import Prohibition) Bill

AbstractPublic policy addressing biodiversity loss is most likely to be effective when it is informed by appropriate evidence and considers potential unintended consequences. We evaluate key evidence relating to the Hunting Trophies (Import Prohibition) Bill that was discussed in the UK Parliament between 2022 and 2024. We characterize the UK's role in international hunting trophy trade by analyzing CITES (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora) trade data for 2000–2021 and 2015–2021. For CITES‐listed species imported to/exported from the UK as hunting trophies in these periods we use data from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species to determine whether hunting designated as “trophy hunting” is (i) likely a major threat contributing to species being of elevated conservation concern, (ii) likely or possibly causing localized declines, or (iii) not a threat. We then use the Red List to determine whether such hunting provides, or potentially provides, benefits for species and/or people. Finally, we evaluate the UK Government's impact assessment of the bill. In 2000–2021 an estimated 3494 hunting trophies from 73 CITES‐listed species and subspecies were exported to the UK involving an estimated 2549 whole organism equivalents (WOEs), that is, individual animals. Imports involved 158.86 ± 66.53 (mean ± SD) trophies/year (115.83 ± 32.27 WOEs/year). In 2015–2021, 79% of imports were from countries where populations of the hunted species are stable, increasing, or abundant. Legal hunting for trophies is not a major threat to any of the species or subspecies imported to the UK, but likely or possibly represents a local threat to some populations of eight species. This hunting does, or could potentially, benefit 20 species and subspecies, and people. Among other concerns, the impact assessment failed to adequately consider the costs and benefits to local communities in countries where such hunting occurs. Informed by these analyses we discuss alternative regulatory options.

Effects of Replacing Cow’s Milk with Plant-Based Beverages on Potential Nutrient Intake in Sustainable Healthy Dietary Patterns: A Case Study

More consumers are replacing cow’s milk (CM) with plant-based drinks (PBD), but data indicating the nutritional impact are limited. This theoretical study aims to assess the effect of substituting CM with PBD sold in Italy on nutrient intake within two dietary patterns: one aligned with the EAT-Lancet Commission reference diet adapted to Italian food habits (EAT-IT) and another one in line with the Italian Dietary Guidelines (IDG). Nutrition information from 368 PBD were collected and categorized according to their descriptive name and their fortification or not with calcium (Ca- and nCa-fortified). The substitution of CM with each PBD category in both dietary patterns was conducted, and an analysis of nutrient content and adequacy was performed. Substituting CM with all PBD resulted in reduced protein intake, except for nCa-fortified soy drinks, decreased saturated fat and vitamins B2 and B12, and increased fiber intake. Replacing CM with nCa-fortified PBD within both diets decreased Ca intake. Following the substitution of CM with Ca-fortified PBD, variations in vitamin D intake depended on the PBD category. The main risk of nutritional inadequacy was observed in Ca and vitamin D levels, which may even be amplified considering the different bioavailability based on the source of nutrients. This study highlighted the important role of CM in meeting calcium requirements and the potential unintended consequences of substituting CM with PBD without considering their nutritional differences.

ROLE OF RANKL SIGNALING IN BONE HOMEOSTASIS.

RANKL and its cognate receptor RANK are crucial regulators of bone metabolism in physiological as well as in pathological conditions. Here we go through the works that unveiled the paramount role of this signaling pathway. We focus on the RANKL cytokine, whose alterations are responsible for rare and common bone diseases. We describe recent insights on the regulation of RANKL expression, which provide new hints for the pharmacological regulation of this molecule. Based on the multiple functions exerted by RANKL (within and outside the bone tissue), we advise caution regarding potential unintended consequences of its inhibition.

Public perspectives on increased data sharing in health research in the context of the 2023 National Institutes of Health Data Sharing Policy.

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) is the largest public research funder in the world. In an effort to make publicly funded data more accessible, the NIH established a new Data Management and Sharing (DMS) Policy effective January 2023. Though the new policy was available for public comment, the patient perspective and the potential unintended consequences of the policy on patients' willingness to participate in research have been underexplored. This study aimed to determine: (1) participant preferences about the types of data they are willing to share with external entities, and (2) participant perspectives regarding the updated 2023 NIH DMS policy. A cross-sectional, nationally representative online survey was conducted among 610 English-speaking US adults in March 2023 using Prolific. Overall, 50% of the sample identified as women, 13% as Black or African American, and 7% as Hispanic or Latino, with a mean age of 46 years. The majority of respondents (65%) agreed with the NIH policy, but racial differences were noted with a higher percentage (28%) of Black participants indicating a decrease in willingness to participate in research studies with the updated policy in place. Participants were more willing to share research data with healthcare providers, yet their preferences for data sharing varied depending on the type of data to be shared and the recipients. Participants were less willing to share sexual health and fertility data with health technology companies (41%) and public repositories (37%) compared to their healthcare providers (75%). The findings highlight the importance of adopting a transparent approach to data sharing that balances protecting patient autonomy with more open data sharing.

Students’ approaches to learning (SAL) and their relations to burnout among university freshmen in Singapore

Assessing students’ approaches to learning (SAL) is crucial for evaluating their critical thinking abilities and subject domain comprehension. A deep approach and organised studying have been linked to lower study-related burnout, while an unreflective approach is associated with elevated levels of burnout. Despite evidence of the SAL–burnout connection, limited research exists on the bidirectional relationship between the two constructs. This study aims to fill this research gap by analysing changes in SAL and burnout during the freshmen year and determining whether there exists a reciprocal relationship between these constructs. Freshmen data was collected from two cohorts (Cohort 1, n = 261; Cohort 2, n = 216) at the beginning and end of their first year. Findings revealed increased overall burnout, exhaustion, cynicism, and inadequacy from T1 to T2 in both cohorts. Deep approach decreased across T1 and T2 in both cohorts, while organised studying decreased in Cohort 1 but remained unchanged in Cohort 2. Conversely, unreflective approach decreased in Cohort 1 but increased in Cohort 2. Bidirectionality between SAL and burnout was observed in both cohorts, indicating that higher unreflective approach could lead to increased cynicism, and vice-versa. These findings highlight the importance of recognizing the interplay between unreflective approach and cynicism for interventions targeting reduction in unreflective approaches and emphasizes the need to consider the potential unintended consequences of heightening freshmen’s cynical attitudes towards studying when attempting to reduce unreflective approach.

Estimating the causal effect of filter ventilation levels in cigarettes on past 30-day smoking.

Cigarettes with higher levels of filter ventilation are misperceived as less harmful and may be more appealing to consumers. Setting limits on filter ventilation has been considered as a policy, but a better understanding of any potential unintended consequences is needed. Filter ventilation (0.2-61.1%) measured for 114 subbrands was merged with Wave 1 (2012-2013) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco Use and Health (PATH) data, restricted to adults 25+ years of age who smoked daily, and examined by quartiles. Inverse probability of exposure weights were used to estimate the causal effect of filter ventilation on past-30 day smoking at subsequent waves while accounting for potential confounders including demographics, menthol, heaviness of smoking and past quit attempts. Compared to those in the 1st (lowest) quartile of filter ventilation, those in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quartiles had 1.02 (95% confidence interval: 0.57, 1.82), 0.86 (0.42, 1.73) and 1.52 (0.90, 2.56) times the odds of no past 30-day smoking at Wave 2 (approximately 1 year later, p=0.163), and 1.28 (0.80, 2.07), 1.11 (0.67, 1.83) and 1.65 (1.01, 1.24) times the odds of no past 30-day smoking at Wave 4 (3 years later, p = 0.238). This observational study found no strong evidence of a causal effect of filter ventilation on past 30-day smoking at approximately 1 and 3 years follow-up. However, our effect size estimates were not precise and thus an increase in the ability to quit smoking due to higher filter ventilation levels cannot be ruled out. Setting a maximum limit on filter ventilation (FV) in cigarettes could address the misperception that highly ventilated cigarettes are less harmful and the link between FV and lung adenocarcinoma. It is important to understand whether such a policy would have unintended consequences on longer-term smoking behavior. We found no strong evidence that FV affects past 30-day smoking 1-3 years later, but could not rule out the possibility that higher FV increases cessation rates. If future studies confirm these epidemiologic findings, this could mean that setting a limit on FV would not lead to reductions in the ability to quit smoking.

Prospective Health Impacts of a Universal Basic Income: Evidence from Community Engagement in South Tyneside, United Kingdom.

Studies have suggested that universal basic income (UBI) has the capacity to have substantial health benefits across the population at national level. Multiple impact pathways have recently been theorized and there are calls for trials to explore these pathways empirically. However, very limited research has taken place at local levels to explore potential context-specific effects, or how these effects could play out in economic, social, and behavioral changes. In order to examine these effects and to think through potential issues and unintended consequences, we brought together citizen engagement groups in Jarrow, South Tyneside, in the northeast of England to explore local people's expectations and positions on the development of UBI policies and pilots prior to their implementation. We found that people's expectations regarding the potential beneficial health impacts of UBI on their communities mapped strongly onto academically theorized impact pathways. They also extended understanding of these pathways in meaningful ways. Our findings add to the literature about UBI and health and provide important insights for the future development of empirical, health focused, UBI research.

The Effect of Macroprudential Policies on Financial Stability

Purpose: The general objective of the study was to investigate the effect of macroprudential policies on financial stability. Methodology: The study adopted a desktop research methodology. Desk research refers to secondary data or that which can be collected without fieldwork. Desk research is basically involved in collecting data from existing resources hence it is often considered a low cost technique as compared to field research, as the main cost is involved in executive’s time, telephone charges and directories. Thus, the study relied on already published studies, reports and statistics. This secondary data was easily accessed through the online journals and library. Findings: The findings reveal that there exists a contextual and methodological gap relating to the effect of macroprudential policies on financial stability. Preliminary empirical review revealed that macroprudential policies were crucial in mitigating systemic risk and enhancing financial stability. It found that tailored approaches, considering specific economic conditions, were necessary for these policies to be effective. Coordination with other regulatory measures and continuous adaptation to evolving financial landscapes were also essential. The research highlighted the importance of robust regulatory institutions and effective enforcement mechanisms, particularly in emerging markets, to address challenges such as regulatory capture and limited institutional capacity. Overall, the study emphasized the need for a dynamic and adaptable macroprudential regulatory framework to maintain a stable and resilient financial system. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: The Financial Stability Hypothesis, Regulatory Capture Theory and Agency Theory may be used to anchor future studies on macroprudential policies on financial stability. The study recommended adopting a comprehensive macroprudential regulatory framework that integrated various tools to address systemic risk. It suggested enhancing theoretical models to understand the dynamic effects of these tools and their combined impact. Practical recommendations included building strong regulatory institutions, improving data collection, and enhancing international cooperation and information sharing. Policy recommendations emphasized clear and transparent frameworks, regular policy reviews, and considering potential unintended consequences. Engaging with stakeholders to address concerns and ensure balanced regulation was also advised to support sustainable economic growth while maintaining financial stability.

Peer Effects of Corporate Disclosures: Evidence From the Registration-Based IPO System in China

China launched the registration-based IPO system in 2019 whereby all firms listed on the newly established STAR board (“peer firms”) are required to disclose specific innovation and industry-related information in their prospectus. Using this event as a quasi-experiment, our study investigates the causal effects of peer firms’ disclosures on individual firms’ disclosure strategy. We find that the precision of individual firms’ management earnings forecast (MEF), both its form and width, significantly decreases when peer firms disclose more information during the IPO period. In cross-sectional analyses, we find this effect to be more pronounced for individual firms that are likely to experience greater competitive pressure from industry peer firms and firms with higher risks and performance uncertainty that make them more cautious to external competitive pressure. This result suggests that peer firms’ disclosures induce greater competitive pressure and uncertainty about future firm performance, triggering managers of individual firms to adopt a more cautious disclosure strategy. Overall, our study extends the literature on the peer effects in corporate disclosure decisions and documents potential unintended consequences of mandatory disclosure policies.

Public Policy Innovation: Analyzing the Implementation and Outcomes of Progressive Initiatives

Public policy innovation plays a pivotal role in addressing contemporary societal challenges, and this journal article scrutinizes the implementation and outcomes of progressive initiatives in the realm of public policy. The study delves into the dynamics of policy innovation, examining the factors influencing successful implementation and evaluating the resultant outcomes. The article begins by elucidating the significance of public policy innovation in responding to the evolving needs of societies. It explores various forms of innovation, including technological, procedural, and institutional innovations, and their impact on the policy landscape. A comprehensive analysis of the implementation process follows, encompassing stakeholder engagement, regulatory frameworks, and the role of leadership in fostering innovation-friendly environments. Case studies and real-world examples illustrate instances of successful policy innovation, highlighting best practices and lessons learned. Furthermore, the study assesses the outcomes of progressive policy initiatives, considering their effectiveness in achieving intended goals and addressing societal challenges. It also explores the potential unintended consequences and challenges associated with policy innovation. The findings underscore the importance of a dynamic and adaptive policy framework that encourages experimentation, learning, and continuous improvement. Recommendations include the establishment of innovation labs, cross-sector collaboration, and mechanisms for ongoing evaluation and feedback. In conclusion, this article contributes to the discourse on public policy innovation, offering insights into the complexities of implementation and the multifaceted outcomes of progressive initiatives. As societies navigate unprecedented challenges, fostering a culture of innovation in public policy emerges as a key strategy for building responsive and effective governance systems.

Federated Learning-Based Security Attack Detection for Multi-Controller Software-Defined Networks

A revolutionary concept of Multi-controller Software-Defined Networking (MC-SDN) is a promising structure for pursuing an evolving complex and expansive large-scale modern network environment. Despite the rich operational flexibility of MC-SDN, it is imperative to protect the network deployment against potential vulnerabilities that lead to misuse and malicious activities on data planes. The security holes in the MC-SDN significantly impact network survivability, and subsequently, the data plane is vulnerable to potential security threats and unintended consequences. Accordingly, this work intends to design a Federated learning-based Security (FedSec) strategy that detects the MC-SDN attack. The FedSec ensures packet routing services among the nodes by maintaining a flow table frequently updated according to the global model knowledge. By executing the FedSec algorithm only on the network-centric nodes selected based on importance measurements, the FedSec reduces the system complexity and enhances attack detection and classification accuracy. Finally, the experimental results illustrate the significance of the proposed FedSec strategy regarding various metrics.

Environmental Regulation and Access to Credit

AbstractWe show that climate priorities codified in regulations significantly impact firms’ access to credit, especially long‐term credit, an important financial resource required for achieving business viability and sustainability goals. Following the implementation of a prominent cap‐and‐trade programme aimed at controlling nitrogen oxides (NOx) in the United States (the NOx Budget Trading Program, NBP), manufacturers experienced decreased debt maturity structures, driven by reduced access to long‐maturity debt, but did not alter their use of short‐term debt or trade credit. The NBP's effect on long‐term credit is more pronounced for firms with higher degrees of electricity intensity, financial constraints, information frictions or rollover risk. It ultimately led to deteriorating firm value and operating performance. Increased energy costs and elevated operating leverage explain firms’ reduced access to long‐term credit. Our findings highlight the potential unintended consequences of policy instruments designed to boost a specific aspect of sustainability and the complex nature of managing corporate financial and sustainability goals.

Unravelling hidden inequities in a universal public long-term care system

We study the socioeconomic horizontal inequity in the allocation of publicly subsidised long-term care (LTC) in Spain, using administrative data from the universe of applicants in Catalonia. We find that, after controlling for needs, cash subsidies for informal care are disproportionately concentrated among wealthier individuals, while the use of formal care services (home care and nursing homes) is concentrated among the less well-off. This suggests that cash benefits may inadvertently facilitate access to wealthier individuals’ private care. We also find inequity in the form of provision, with in-kind services being more prevalent among the worse-off while wealthier beneficiaries are more likely to receive vouchers. While this duality in provision does not lead to significant differences in overall time to access LTC, we find that lower-income individuals wait longer for telecare, and wealthier individuals opting for in-kind nursing home care wait longer, suggesting potential differences in preferences or constraints. We find no evidence of socioeconomic inequity in the time spent navigating the administrative application process. Our findings highlight the need for policymakers to consider the potential unintended consequences of cash benefits and different forms of provision to ensure equitable access to LTC services.

Youth attention, perceptions, and appeal in response to e-cigarette advertising features: A focus group study

BackgroundE-cigarette marketing exposure may influence vaping-related outcomes among youth, but less is known on which specific advertising features impact youth attention, perceptions, and appeal. This study qualitatively examines responses to different e-cigarette advertising features among e-cigarette-naïve youth. MethodsWe conducted four online focus groups in 2021 with a national U.S. sample of 13–17 year olds (n = 25) who had never used e-cigarettes. Participants viewed and discussed their reactions to different e-cigarette advertisements varying in the inclusion of ad features, including color, models in imagery, text claims targeting smokers, and the nicotine warning label. ResultsParticipants were attracted to ads with bright colors, particularly when contrasted against a dark background. Ads featuring models attracted attention and reduced perceptions that the product is harmful. Comments indicated mixed reactions to smoker-targeted text claims. On one hand, participants perceived ads with text that specified “for smokers” as targeting older adults. On the other hand, text referring to “switching” from cigarettes to e-cigarettes led to some perceptions that the product is healthy, and certain text that implicitly referred to smoking (e.g., “no odor”) had the potential to appeal to youth who wanted to use e-cigarettes discreetly. The level of attention paid to warnings depended on warning size and the color contrast between the warning and the rest of the ad. ConclusionsFindings suggest specific e-cigarette ad features play an important role in attracting youth attention and influencing perceptions. More research is needed on the potential public health benefits versus unintended consequences of smoker-targeted text claims.

Strategic anarchy; a model of prison violence as a means to informal governance and rent extraction

Prison gangs are often thought to create a “culture of violence” in U.S. prisons and jails. Yet mounting research and evidence suggests that prison gangs, in pursuit of profits from illicit market activity, also act as a check on the violent behavior of the broader prison population. This paper synthesizes existing research on prison gangs into a modeling framework that treats gangs as profit-maximizing suppliers and sources of informal governance in an illicit marketplace. The model offers broad policy implications that highlight the challenges and potential unintended consequences of correctional policies that address violence and gang activity.

Impact of a national audit on child and adolescent psychiatrists' prescribing practices.

A look back review of South Kerry Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS) in Ireland, known as the 'Maskey report' (MR), highlighted substandard prescribing practices. The aim of this 'Maskey Impact Study' (MIS) was to explore changes to child and adolescent psychiatrists' prescribing practices following the MR. The study was cross-sectional and mixed method. A study specific questionnaire was distributed electronically to psychiatrists working in CAMHS (n = 160). 102 psychiatrists participated in the study (response rate 63.8%). Perceived improvement in prescribing practices included improved medical record keeping (63.7%), consent documentation (53.9%), medication information provision (41.2%) and physical health monitoring (60.8%). However, 43.1% of psychiatrists reported a reluctance to prescribe medication even when clinically indicated and 50% were more likely to avoid off-label use. Most respondents reported increased stress levels (80.4%) with higher stress being significantly associated with reticence in prescribing (χ2 = 11.746, p < .001) and avoiding off-label use (χ2 = 15.392, p < 0.001). Thematic analysis highlighted increased medication hesitancy, enforced 'meaningless' bureaucracy and medication mistrust among families. Although improvements reported are welcomed, the increased hesitancy of medication use, avoidance of prescribing more than one medication, and avoidance of off-label use, is of concern with potential unintended adverse consequences. Reluctance in prescribing may deprive youth of access to evidence-based treatments and limit exposure of NCHDs to the safe practice of consultant-initiated psychopharmacology. Further research will be important to determine if this impacts clinical care. Continued education in psychopharmacology is essential along with increased public awareness of the evidence for medication, to help restore public confidence and trust in psychopharmacology.

Making a Bad Situation Worse: Current and Potential Unintended Consequences of Juvenile Registration for Sexual Offences.

Within the US, children and adolescents who engage in sexually abusive behavior are often subjected to sex offender registration and notification requirements, which contribute to stigmatization and forfeiture of their civil rights without empirical basis (Lancaster, 2011; Pickett et al., 2023; Zilney & Zilney, 2009). To date, 39 states subject children with adjudicated sexual offenses to sex offender registration requirements, with most recent estimates revealing that approximately 200,000 youth have been placed on sex offender registries within the US and many are now on the registry as adults (Pickett et al., 2020). This severe response-by both members of the public and policymakers-toward children who engage in inappropriate sexual behavior is imposed upon children and adolescents with adjudicated sexual offenses in an effort to meet goals of reducing sexual violence and increasing community safety. Within the current discourse, we review the history of registration and notification practices for adolescents with sexual offenses, describe what registration and notification policies entail, and then present empirical and theoretical evidence of the harmful outcomes associated with implementation of registration and notification requirements for sexual offenses. Thus, the predominant aim of this discourse is to encourage thoughtful and critical examination of registration and notification policies and their iatrogenic impacts.

Under the Radar or Into the Spotlight: How Does Social Presence Affect Minorities in Virtual Groups?

As society has become more reliant on information and communication technologies (ICTs), ICTs have become more adept at supporting social presence. Social presence is the extent to which a medium facilitates awareness of other people and relationships; this is generally considered desirable, but what are the limits to its enhancing effects? Paradoxically, social presence humanizes ICT-mediated interactions, which can lead to more socially conscious behaviors, but it can also trigger pre-existing social biases. We explore the potential unintended consequences of social presence for minority group members-members who are especially vulnerable to stereotyping and discriminatory behavior. Our lab study of 178 groups across three conditions revealed that minority group members were subject to more negative treatment. In turn, minority members responded more negatively when using ICTs with higher social presence. These findings have implications for minority members of virtual groups at work, school, and other social interactions.

Misapplied management makes matters worse: Spatially explicit control leverages biotic interactions to slow invasion.

A wide range of approaches has been used to manage the spread of invasive species, yet invaders continue to be a challenge to control. In some cases, management actions have no effect or may even inadvertently benefit the targeted invader. Here, we use the mid-20th century management of the Red Imported Fire Ant, Solenopsis invicta, in the US as a motivating case study to explore the conditions under which such wasted management effort may occur. Introduced in approximately 1940, the fire ant spread widely through the southeast USand became a problematic pest. Historically, fire ants were managed with broad-spectrum pesticides; unfortunately, these efforts were largely unsuccessful. One hypothesis suggests that, by also killing native ants, mass pesticide application reduced competitive burdens thereby enabling fire ants to invade more quickly than they would in the absence of management. We use a mechanistic competition model to demonstrate the landscape-level effects of such management. We explicitly model the extent and location of pesticide applications, showing that the same pesticide application can have a positive, neutral, or negative effect on the progress of an invasion, depending on where it is applied on the landscape with respect to the invasion front. When designing management, the target species is often considered alone; however, this work suggests that leveraging existing biotic interactions, specifically competition with native species, can increase the efficacy of management. Our model not only highlights the potential unintended consequences of ignoring biotic interactions, but also provides a framework for developing spatially explicit management strategies that take advantage of these biotic interactions to work smarter, not harder.

Working hours and employee health: Evidence from China's workweek reduction policy

This paper examines the impact of China's Workweek Reduction Policy, implemented in 1995, on state employees' health status. The study draws on data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey conducted between 1991 and 2000. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, the research compares the health outcomes of state and non-state employees before and after the policy's implementation. The results reveal a surprising finding: reducing working hours from 48 to 40 had an adverse effect on the health of Chinese state employees despite the policy not affecting their income or nutrition intake. Specifically, the policy resulted in a substantial increase in alcohol consumption, particularly among males. These insights highlight the potential unintended consequences of workweek reduction policies and have important implications for policymakers considering similar measures.