Potential Suitable Areas Research Articles

Prediction of Potential Suitable Distribution Areas for Northeastern China Salamander (Hynobius leechii) in Northeastern China

The Northeastern China Salamander (Hynobius leechii) is classified as a rare, nationally protected Class II wild animal in China. Its population is declining, and its habitat is deteriorating. This study aimed to predict the distribution of suitable habitats for the Northeastern China Salamander under both current and future climate scenarios, utilizing the MaxEnt model optimized through ENMeval parameters. Species distribution data were collected from field surveys, existing literature, amphibian records in China, and the Global Biodiversity Information Network. A total of 97 records were compiled, with duplicate records within the ENMTools grid unit removed, ensuring that only one record existed within every 5 km. Ultimately, 58 distinct distribution points for the Northeastern China Salamander were identified. The R software package ‘ENMeval 2.0’ was employed to optimize the feature complexity (FC) and regularization multiplier (RM), and the optimized model was applied to assess the suitable distribution regions for the Northeastern China Salamander under present and future climate conditions. The findings indicated that rainfall and temperature are the primary environmental factors influencing Hynobius. Currently, the suitable habitat for the Northeastern China Salamander constitutes 6.6% of the total area of Northeastern China. Projections for the periods of 2050 and 2070 suggest that suitable habitats for the Northeastern China Salamander will continue to expand towards higher latitudes across three climate scenarios. While this study focuses solely on climate change factors and acknowledges certain limitations, it serves as a reliable reference and provides essential information for the distribution and conservation of the Northeastern China Salamander.

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Rare and Endangered Emmenopterys henryi in China Under ClimateChange.

Climate change has a pivotal impact on the potential distribution of endangered and relic tree species. Probably due to unrepresentative sampling and single algorithm, at present, there are different views on the potential range of the endangered tree Emmenopterys henryi, endemic to China. Here, we first collated 612 occurrence records and 22 environmental variables including climate, topography, and soil. Combined the Biomod2 with MaxEnt, we then predicted its past, current, and future potential suitable area in China, and determined the key factors influencing its distribution. The ensemble model results showed that the main environmental variables affecting this species were the minimum temperature of the coldest month (BIO6), precipitation of warmest quarter (BIO18), and temperature seasonality (BIO4). Its current potential distribution area was 176.53 × 104 km2, mainly concentrated in eastern, central, and southwestern China. Collectively, the suitable area of E. henryi would averagely decrease by 3.90% in all 16 future scenarios, with its centroid largely migrating northeastward. Our findings indicate that the endangered E. henryi covered 18 provinces in China, having a larger area than known. Moreover, climate change may have an adverse effect on its potential distribution. In addition, the ensemble model can produce more effective prediction outcomes than MaxEnt for such endemic tree species with large environmental range. We recommend increasing sample representativeness by analyzing the completeness properties of sample coverage, and simultaneously selecting appropriate algorithms to ensure the reliability of distribution prediction for endangered and relict tree species.

Transformation trajectory of wetland and suitability of migratory water bird habitat in the moribund Ganges delta.

Wetland is a suitable habitat for water birds, and it enhances cultural ecosystem services. But the rapid transformation of such habitat, especially in floodplain environments, is an emerging crisis. Wetland reclamation and fragmentation are two major issues leading to poor habitat and landscape. The present paper aimed to explore the spatio-temporal changes in the suitability of wetland bird habitat, wetland landscape pattern, and the connection between them. Two wetlands, including a wetland of national importance, were taken as cases for this study. Time series Landsat and Sentinel images were taken for developing modeling parameters and Land Use Land Cover (LULC) for the years 2016 and 2020. The first transformation of wetland was accounted from the LULC maps of both years. Machine learning algorithm-based spatial models were developed for mapping the poor landscape condition of the existing wetland parts. Finally, semi-subjective analytic hierarchy approach (AHP)-based models were developed for assessing waterbird habitat suitability. Results demarcated more than 48% area belonging primarily to edges and tiny patches of wetlands under a poor state in 2020. Although the total wetland area was reduced between 2016 and 2020, the wetland area found to be highly suitable habitat increased from 25.5 to 59.44% of the total area during that period. The suitability of edge-preferring bird habitat showed a 10% increase. The increasing poverty of the landscape was caused by declining edge-preferring bird habitat suitability. From 1990 to 2020, 27% of wetlands were converted to single-cropped lands, and 5% were converted to multi-cropped agricultural land. Since the study spatially identified the potential suitable area and trend of wetland habitat transformation, this could help policymakers define suitable planning for the restoration and conservation of such promising bird habitat.

Potentially suitable geographical area for Colletotrichum acutatum under current and future climatic scenarios based on optimized MaxEnt model.

Global climate warming has led to changes in the suitable habitats for fungi. Colletotrichum acutatum, a common fungus causing anthracnose disease, is widely distributed in southern China. Currently, research on the relationship between C. acutatum and environmental warming was limited. In this study, MaxEnt and ArcGIS software were used to predict the suitable habitats of C. acutatum under current and future climate conditions based on its occurrence records and environmental factors. The optimal MaxEnt model parameters were set as feature combination (FC) = lp and regularization multiplier (RM) = 2.6. Bio15, Bio12, Bio09, and Bio19 were identified as the main environmental factors influencing the distribution of C. acutatum. Under current climate conditions, C. acutatum was distributed across all continents globally, except Antarctica. In China, C. acutatum was primarily distributed south of the Qinling-Huaihe Line, with a total suitable area of 259.52 × 104 km2. Under future climate conditions, the potential suitable habitat area for C. acutatum was expected to increase and spread towards inland China. The results of this study provided timely risk assessment for the distribution and spread of C. acutatum in China and offer scientific guidance for monitoring and timely controlled of its distribution areas.

Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Betula luminifera H. Winkler in China Using MaxEnt

Betula luminifera H. Winkler, a fast-growing broad-leaved tree species native to China’s subtropical regions, possesses significant ecological and economic value. The species’ adaptability and ornamental characteristics make it a crucial component of forest ecosystems. However, the impacts of global climate change on its geographical distribution are not well understood, necessitating research to predict its potential distribution shifts under future climate scenarios. Our aims were to forecast the impact of climate change on the potential suitable distribution of B. luminifera across China using the MaxEnt model, which is recognized for its high predictive accuracy and low sample data requirement. Geographical coordinate data of B. luminifera distribution points were collected from various databases and verified for redundancy. Nineteen bioclimatic variables were selected and screened for correlation to avoid overfitting in the model. The MaxEnt model was optimized using the ENMeval package, and the model accuracy was evaluated using the Akaike Information Criterion Correction (delta.AICc), Training Omission Rate (OR10), and Area Under the Curve (AUC). The potential distribution of B. luminifera was predicted under current and future climate scenarios based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). The optimized MaxEnt model demonstrated high predictive accuracy with an AUC value of 0.9. The dominant environmental variables influencing the distribution of B. luminifera were annual precipitation, minimum temperature of the coldest month, and standard deviation of temperature seasonality. The potential suitable habitat area and its geographical location were predicted to change significantly under different future climate scenarios, with complex dynamics of habitat expansion and contraction. The distribution centroid of B. luminifera was also predicted to migrate, indicating a response to changing climatic conditions. Our findings underscore the importance of model optimization in enhancing predictive accuracy and provide valuable insights for the development of conservation strategies and forest management plans to address the challenges posed by climate change.

Projection of the Potential Global Geographic Distribution of the Solanum Fruit Fly Bactrocera latifrons (Hendel, 1912) (Diptera: Tephritidae) Based on CLIMEX Models

The solanum fruit fly Bactrocera latifrons (Diptera: Tephritidae) is an invasive alien insect that causes huge economic losses to pepper and other solanaceous plant industries. It is mainly distributed in South and Southeast Asia, SW Europe, Western USA, and in some African countries. However, the potential global geographical distribution of B. latifrons is unknown. Therefore, in this study, based on the current (1981–2010) and future (2040–2059) climatic scenarios determined using the CNRM-CM5, Access1.0, GFDL-ESM-2M, and NorESM1-M models, we used a species distribution model (CLIMEX 4.0) to project the potential global geographic distribution of B. latifrons to prevent further invasion and harm. In the current climate scenario, South America (1286.06 × 104 km2), Africa (1435.47 × 104 km2), and Oceania (410.66 × 104 km2) have the largest proportions of suitable land areas for B. latifrons colonization. Under all four future climate models, the global potential suitable area for Bactrocera latifrons is projected to decrease and shift towards higher latitudes. This study provides an important baseline upon which researchers, quarantine personnel, and governments can develop the appropriate control strategies against B. latifrons.

Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Geographical Distribution of Tea (Camellia sinensis L.) in Kenya with Maximum Entropy Model

Climate change has been disturbing the present species distribution ranges, resulting in the shifting of cultivation areas and decreases in production and quality. Tea (Camellia sinensis L.), which seeks optimum climatic resources, is a key cash crop economically in Kenya. In this study, the shifting of tea suitability was projected with the MaxEnt model under the SSP (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) climate scenarios for the 2050s and 2090s relative to the 1970–2000 distribution. Analysis under the current climatic condition showed that the proportions of optimal and medium- and marginal-suitable areas were 2%, 3%, and 24% of the total area, respectively, and located in south-western (SW), central, and north-eastern (NE) Kenya and, to some extent, in the Rift Valley. It was projected that the potential suitable tea-growing areas would migrate from the western areas to the central, eastern, and north-eastern highlands in Kenya. It was detected that the precipitation of the driest period (July), precipitation of the wettest quarter (April, May, and June), and annual temperature range could be the main climatic factors determining the shift in tea distribution. Compared to the current distribution (29%), the climatically suitable areas for tea production could reach 32.58% of Kenya’s land area under the SSP1-2.6 scenarios in the 2050s and 35.08% in the 2090s under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. On the contrary, it was found that the optimal climate-suitable habitats were projected to shrink by 2% and 1% in the 2050s and 2090s under all scenarios on the west side of the Great Rift Valley compared to the current distribution. In comparison, the sizes of medium- and marginal-suitable habitats would increase by 1% and 3%, respectively. The findings indicated that unless adaptive climate actions are taken, climate change could reduce the tea planting areas in western Kenya. Meanwhile, climate suitability was projected to expand upward on the east side of the Rift Valley, enhancing the potential distribution of tea. The developed climate information could be used to design and implement adaptation interventions in the lower elevation areas. Finally, we highlight that the available scientific literature on the climate suitability of tea in Kenya should be broadened by adding non-climatic factors.

Predicting the potential global distribution of Ixodes pacificus under climate change.

In order to predict the global potential distribution range of Ixodes pacificus (I. pacificus) under different climate scenario models in the future, analyze the major climate factors affecting its distribution, and provide references for the transformation of passive vector surveillance into active vector surveillance, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used in this study to estimate the global potential distribution range of I. pacificus under historical climate scenarios and different future climate scenarios. The global distribution data of I. pacificus were screened by ENMtools and ArcGIS 10.8 software, and a total of 563 distribution data of I. pacificus were obtained. Maxent 3.4.1 and R 4.0.3 were used to screen climate variables according to the contribution rate of environmental variables, knife cutting method and correlation analysis of variables. R 4.0.3 was used to calculate model regulation frequency doubling and feature combination to adjust MaxEnt parameters. The model results showed that the training omission rate was in good agreement with the theoretical omission rate, and the area under ROC curve (AUC) value of the model was 0.978. Among the included environmental variables, the Tmin2 (minimum temperature in February) and Prec1 (precipitation in January) contributed the most to the model, providing more effective information for the distribution of I. pacificus. MaxEnt model revealed that the distribution range of I. pacificus was dynamically changing. The main potential suitable areas are distributed in North America, South America, Europe, Oceania and Asia. Under the future climate scenario model, the potential suitable areas show a downward trend, but the countries and regions ieeeeeeenvolved in the suitable areas do not change much. Therefore, the invasion risk of the potential suitable area of I. pacificus should be paid attention to.

Potential distribution prediction of Pomacea canaliculata in China based on the Biomod2.

Pomacea canaliculata is a globally significant invasive species that poses substantial threats to agricultural production, ecosystems, and human health in China. To evaluate its habitat suitability in China, we collected and collated 741 county-level occurrence points of P. canaliculata in China through database query, literature search and news reports, and obtained the five most important climatic factors by variance inflation factor and Pearson correlation coefficient from 19 bioclimatic factors. We investigated the potential suitable distribution areas of P. canaliculata under current and future climate scenarios using the Biomod2 ensemble model, and identified the primary environmental variables influencing their distributions. The results showed that under the current climate, the suitable habitat areas were concentrated in southern provinces or municipalities, such as Zhejiang, Shanghai, Fujian, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, and Yunnan. Under different climate scenarios in the future, the suitable habitat area would show large-scale expansion in the southern provinces or municipalities, and spread to the northern region. The most two important environmental factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitat areas were precipitation of wettest month and mean temperature of wettest quarter. A combination model to predict the potential distribution of P. canaliculata under current and future climate conditions would help manage the risk of its invasion and spread, and provide a reference for relevant regions and departments to take active measures in advance to prevent the spread, monitor and mitigate its invasion.

Genetic Diversity Analysis and Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas for the Rare and Endangered Wild Plant Henckelia longisepala.

Henckelia longisepala (H. W. Li) D. J. Middleton & Mich. Möller is a rare and endangered plant species found only in Southeastern Yunnan, China, and Northern Vietnam. It is listed as a threatened species in China and recognized as a plant species with extremely small populations (PSESP), while also having high ornamental value and utilization potential. This study used ddRAD-seq technology to quantify genetic diversity and structure for 32 samples from three extant populations of H. longisepala. The H. longisepala populations were found to have low levels of genetic diversity (Ho = 0.1216, He = 0.1302, Pi = 0.1731, FIS = 0.1456), with greater genetic differentiation observed among populations (FST = 0.3225). As indicated by genetic structure and phylogenetic analyses, samples clustered into three distinct genetic groups that corresponded to geographically separate populations. MaxEnt modeling was used to identify suitable areas for H. longisepala across three time periods and two climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5). High-suitability areas were identified in Southeastern Yunnan Province, Northern Vietnam, and Eastern Laos. Future H. longisepala distribution was predicted to remain centered in these areas, but with a decrease in the total amount of suitable habitat. The present study provides key data on H. longisepala genetic diversity, as well as a theoretical basis for the conservation, development, and utilization of its germplasm resources.

The distribution of Apis laboriosa revisited: range extensions, biogeographic affinities, and species distribution modelling

IntroductionApis laboriosa, the Himalayan giant honeybee, inhabits the foothills of Himalaya and neighboring mountainous regions. Here we revise its distribution in light of recent reports and discoveries, review the ecozones it inhabits, and reassess its likely distribution through species distribution modeling.MethodsWe revised the range map for A. laboriosa by mapping locality records from various sources: refereed research publications, museum specimens, records with identifiable images of bees in publicly available databases, personal observations of the authors, and photos/videos and their coordinates submitted to the authors by honey-hunters, beekeepers, and extension workers. We then used that map to determine the ecozones in which the species occurs. The geographical coordinates of the data localities were used to estimate the potential suitable areas for the bee with MaxEnt modeling.ResultsOur research filled in several previously identified gaps in the distribution of A. laboriosa: in western Nepal; mountainous regions of Myanmar, northwestern Thailand, and northern Laos; several river valleys in Xizang and Yunnan, China; and northeastern Pakistan. Over most of its range this bee species primarily occupies subtropical broadleaf forests with strong Himalayan affinities. However, in the western part of its range it extends into zones dominated by conifers. The sites where A. laboriosa has been recorded closely match the predicted range of the species. Two variables, mean temperature of the coldest quarter and temperature seasonality, contributed most (76%) to the species distribution model.DiscussionApis laboriosa has a more extensive distribution in the foothills of the Himalaya and neighboring mountainous regions than has been previously recognized. The range now extends from longitude 74.4°–105.9°E, a linear distance of 3300 km, and from latitude 19.2°N–34.8°N. We have documented nesting on tree branches in northern Vietnam. Future research is warranted on its elevational migrations along river valleys, population differentiation, and ecological role as a pollinator in the different ecological zones it inhabits.

Evaluating the vulnerability of Tetracentron sinense habitats to climate-induced latitudinal shifts.

Exploring the changing process of the geographical distribution pattern of Tetracentron sinense Oliv. and its main influencing factors since the last interglacial period can provide a scientific basis for the effective protection and management of the species. The MaxEnt model was used to construct the potential distribution areas of T. sinense in different periods such as the last interglacial (LIG), the last glacial maximum (LGM), the mid-Holocene (MID), and the current and future (2050s and 2070s). On the premise of discussing the influence of dominant environmental factors on its distribution model, the suitable area changes of T. sinense under different ecological climate situations were quantitatively analyzed. (1) The AUC and TSS values predicted by the optimized model were 0.959 and 0.835, respectively, indicating a good predictive effect by the MaxEnt model; the potential suitable areas for T. sinense in the current period are mainly located in Southwest China, which are wider compared to the actual habitats. (2) Jackknife testing showed that the lowest temperature in the coldest month (Bio6), elevation (Elev), seasonal variation coefficient of temperature (Bio4), and surface calcium carbonate content (T-CACO3) are the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of T. sinense. (3) From the last interglacial period to the current period, the total suitable area of T. sinense showed a decreasing trend; the distribution points of T. sinense populations in mid-Holocene period may be the origin of the postglacial population, and Southwest China may be its glacial biological refuge. (4) Compared with the current period, the total suitable area ranges of T. sinense in China in the 2050s and 2070s decreased, and the centroid location of its total fitness area all migrated to the northwest, with the largest migration distance in 2070s under the SSPs 7.0 climate scenario. Temperature was the principal factor influencing the geographical distribution of T. sinense. With global warming, the range of T. sinense suitable areas will show a shrinking trend, with a shift toward higher-latitude regions. Ex situ conservation measures could be taken to preserve its germplasm resources.

The risk of biological invasion by red-eared slider turtles (Trachemys scripta elegans) in China inferred from niche shifting

Invasive alien species can cause significant economic and social-environmental damage after their invasive success. The red-eared slider (Trachemys scripta elegans) is among the first and worst invasive alien species introduced to China and has been recorded in numerous regions worldwide, not limited to China. In this study, we used species distribution models to predict the potential suitable habitat areas for T. s. elegans and compare the realized niche between its invaded and native ranges. Additionally, we forecasted changes in suitable habitat areas under different future scenarios. We found that the invaded range of T. s. elegans is projected to continue expanding in the future, imposing greater pressure on biological control efforts. We constructed the niche hypervolume of eight environmental variables in the invaded and native ranges of T. s. elegans. Our study demonstrates that: 1) the realized niche of T. s. elegans in China has shifted following its invasion, albeit retaining some aspects of its native range niche; 2) South, Central, and East China has become a region rich in potential suitable habitats in the invaded range of T. s. elegans; and 3) the influence of human activities may be the main reason for the deviation of occurrence records from the potential suitable areas for T. s. elegans. The niche shifting allows this invasive alien subspecies to better adapt to the new environment.

Potential distribution and ecological impacts of Acmella radicans (Jacquin) R.K. Jansen (a new Yunnan invasive species record) in China

Background Acmella radicans(Jacquin) R.K. Jansen is a new invasive species record for Yunnan Province, China. Native to Central America, it has also been recently recorded invading other parts of Asia. To prevent this weed from becoming a serious issue, an assessment of its ecological impacts and potential distribution is needed. We predicted the potential distribution of A. radicans in China using the MaxEnt model and its ecological impacts on local plant communities and soil nutrients were explored.ResultsSimulated training using model parameters produced an area under curve value of 0.974, providing a high degree of confidence in model predictions. Environmental variables with the greatest predictive power were precipitation of wettest month, isothermality, topsoil TEB (total exchangeable bases), and precipitation seasonality, with a cumulative contribution of more than 72.70% and a cumulative permutation importance of more than 69.20%. The predicted potential suitable area of A. radicans in China is concentrated in the southern region. Projected areas of A. radicans ranked as high and moderately suitable comprised 5425 and 26,338 km2, accounting for 0.06 and 0.27% of the Chinese mainland area, respectively. Over the 5 years of monitoring, the population density of A. radicans increased while at the same time the population density and importance values of most other plant species declined markedly. Community species richness, diversity, and evenness values significantly declined. Soil organic matter, total N, total P, available N, and available P concentrations decreased significantly with increasing plant cover of A. radicans, whereas pH, total K and available K increased.ConclusionOur study was the first to show that A. radicans is predicted to expand its range in China and may profoundly affect plant communities, species diversity, and the soil environment. Early warning and monitoring of A. radicans must be pursued with greater vigilance in southern China to prevent its further spread.

Identification of potential suitable areas and conservation priority areas for representative wild animals in the Greater and Lesser Khingan Mountains.

Species geographic distribution and conservation priority areas are important bases for insitu biodiversity conservation and conservation decision-making. In view of the urgency of endangered species protection, eight representative endangered species in the typical forest ecosystem of the Greater and Lesser Khingan Mountains were studied. Based on 1127 occurrence points and environmental data collected from 2016 to 2021, used BIOMOD2 and Zonation to reconstruct the potential distribution area and identify conservation priority areas of eight species (Tetrao parvirostris, T. tetrix, Gulo gulo, Alces alces, Martes zibellina, Moschus moschiferus, Lynx lynx, Lutra lutra). The results showed potential distribution areas for almost all species concentrated in the northern part of the Greater Khingan Mountains (GKM) and the central part of the Lesser Khingan Mountains (LKM). The potential distribution areas of each species were as follows: black-billed capercaillie, 102,623 km2; black grouse, 162,678 km2; wolverine, 63,410 km2; moose, 140,287 km2; sable, 112,254 km2; Siberian musk deer, 104,787 km2; lynx, 139,912 km2; and Eurasian otter, 49,386 km2. Conservation priority areas (CPAs) clustered in the north GKM and central LKM and totaled 220,801 km2, and only 16.94% of the CPAs were currently protected by nature reserves. We suggest that the Chinese government accelerate the integration of existing protected areas in the northern GKM and establish a larger GKM National Park based on cost-effective multi-species protection.

Prediction of Suitable Habitat of Alien Invasive Plant Ambrosia trifida in Northeast China under Various Climatic Scenarios

Ambrosia trifida is an invasive alien plant species, which has very high reproductive and environmental adaptability. Through strong resource acquisition ability and allelopathy, it could inhibit the growth and reproduction of surrounding plants and destroy the stability of an invasive ecosystem. It is very important to predict the change of suitable distribution area of A. trifida with climate change before implementing scientific control measures. Based on 106 A. trifida distribution data and 14 points of environmental data, the optimal parameter combination (RM = 0.1, FC = LQ) was obtained using the MaxEnt (version 3.4.1) model optimized by Kuenm package, and thus the potential suitable areas of A. trifida in Northeast China under three different climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) with different emission intensities in the future (2050, 2070) were predicted. The changes of A. trifida suitable area in Northeast China under three climate scenarios were compared, and the relationship between the change of suitable area and emission intensity was analyzed. In general, the suitable area of A. trifida in Northeast China will expand gradually in the future, and the area of its highly suitable area will also increase with the increasing emission intensity, which is unfavorable to the control of A. trifida.

Predicting the potential distribution of Dendrolimus punctatus and its host Pinus massoniana in China under climate change conditions

IntroductionDendrolimus punctatus, a major pest endemic to the native Pinus massoniana forests in China, displays major outbreak characteristics and causes severe destructiveness. In the context of global climate change, this study aims to investigate the effects of climatic variations on the distribution of D. punctatus and its host, P. massoniana. MethodsWe predict their potential suitable distribution areas in the future, thereby offering a theoretical basis for monitoring and controlling D. punctatus, as well as conserving P. massoniana forest resources. By utilizing existing distribution data on D. punctatus and P. massoniana, coupled with relevant climatic variables, this study employs an optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model for predictions. With feature combinations set as linear and product (LP) and the regularization multiplier at 0.1, the model strikes an optimal balance between complexity and accuracy.ResultsThe results indicate that the primary climatic factors influencing the distribution of D. punctatus and P. massoniana include the minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual temperature range, and annual precipitation. Under the influence of climate change, the distribution areas of P. massoniana and its pests exhibit a high degree of similarity, primarily concentrated in the region south of the Qinling−Huaihe line in China. In various climate scenarios, the suitable habitat areas for these two species may expand to varying degrees, exhibiting a tendency to shift toward higher latitude regions. Particularly under the high emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), D. punctatus is projected to expand northwards at the fastest rate. DiscussionBy 2050, its migration direction is expected to closely align with that of P. massoniana, indicating that the pine forests will continue to be affected by the pest. These findings provide crucial empirical references for region-specific prevention of D. punctatus infestations and for the rational utilization and management of P. massoniana resources.

Risk Assessment of Spodoptera exempta against Food Security: Estimating the Potential Global Overlapping Areas of Wheat, Maize, and Rice under Climate Change.

Spodoptera exempta, known as the black armyworm, has been extensively documented as an invasive agricultural pest prevalent across various crop planting regions globally. However, the potential geographical distribution and the threat it poses to host crops of remains unknown at present. Therefore, we used an optimized MaxEnt model based on 841 occurrence records and 19 bioclimatic variables to predict the potential suitable areas of S. exempta under current and future climatic conditions, and the overlap with wheat, rice, and maize planting areas was assessed. The optimized model was highly reliable in predicting potential suitable areas for this pest. The results showed that high-risk distribution areas for S. exempta were mainly in developing countries, including Latin America, central South America, central Africa, and southern Asia. Moreover, for the three major global food crops, S. exempta posed the greatest risk to maize planting areas (510.78 × 104 km2), followed by rice and wheat planting areas. Under future climate scenarios, global warming will limit the distribution of S. exempta. Overall, S. exempta had the strongest effect on global maize production areas and the least on global wheat planting areas. Our study offers a scientific basis for global prevention of S. exempta and protection of agricultural crops.

Prediction of Potential Suitable Distribution Areas for an Endangered Salamander in China.

Climate change has been considered to pose critical threats for wildlife. During the past decade, species distribution models were widely used to assess the effects of climate change on the distribution of species' suitable habitats. Among all the vertebrates, amphibians are most vulnerable to climate change. This is especially true for salamanders, which possess some specific traits such as cutaneous respiration and low vagility. The Wushan salamander (Liua shihi) is a threatened and protected salamander in China, with its wild population decreasing continuously. The main objective of this study was to predict the distribution of suitable habitat for L. shihi using the ENMeval parameter-optimized MaxEnt model under current and future climate conditions. Our results showed that precipitation, cloud density, vegetation type, and ultraviolet radiation were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of L. shihi. Currently, the suitable habitats for L. shihi are mainly concentrated in the Daba Mountains, including northeastern Chongqing and western Hubei Provinces. Under the future climate conditions, the area of suitable habitats increased, which mainly occurred in central Guizhou Province. This study provided important information for the conservation of L. shihi. Future studies can incorporate more species distribution models to better understand the effects of climate change on the distribution of L. shihi.

Ensemble model-based analysis of the effects of environmental factors on the distribution and chemical composition of Asparagus cochinchinensis (Lour.) Merr.

Asparagus cochinchinensis (Lour.) Merr., is a traditional Chinese herbal medicine with pharmacological effects such as cough and asthma suppression, anti-inflammation, and immunity enhancement. Currently, as a wild resource it is scarce and its distribution has not been well defined. Especially in the context of climate change, the effect of the environment on its chemical composition is also unknown. In this study, we constructed an ensemble model of species distribution for A. cochinchinensis to predict its current and future potential suitable habitat areas, and explored the relationship between its chemical composition and key environmental factor using statistical analysis. The results showed that the Mean Diurnal Range (Bio2) contributed 67.74% to the model and was the key environmental factor influencing the distribution of A. cochinchinensis. The current habitat of A. cochinchinensis was mainly distributed in south-central and southeastern China, such as Sichuan, Chongqing, Guangxi, Guangdong and Fujian. Under the influence of climate change, its potential habitat would gradually decrease, especially in highly suitable areas. The results of chemical analysis showed that the quality of A. cochinchinensis was higher in Neijiang than other locations, which might be related to the fact that Bio2 in Neijiang was most suitable for growth. In addition, the correlation results showed that 12 out of 36 chemical indicators had significant correlation with Bio2, and all of them except protein and Tyr had significantly negative correlation with Bio2, indicating that the environment affected the biosynthesis of chemical composition of A. cochinchinensis. The results of the study provide theoretical guidance for the cultivation, management, and sustainable use of A. cochinchinensis resources, as well as a theoretical basis for their quality improvement.