Potential Societal Consequences Research Articles

They shall be fair, transparent, and robust: auditing learning analytics systems

In the near future, systems, that use Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods, such as machine learning, are required to be certified or audited for fairness if used in ethically sensitive fields such as education. One example of those upcoming regulatory initiatives is the European Artificial Intelligence Act. Interconnected with fairness are the notions of system transparency (i.e. how understandable is the system) and system robustness (i.e. will similar inputs lead to similar results). Ensuring fairness, transparency, and robustness requires looking at data, models, system processes, and the use of systems as the ethical implications arise at the intersection between those. The potential societal consequences are domain specific, it is, therefore, necessary to discuss specifically for Learning Analytics (LA) what fairness, transparency, and robustness mean and how they can be certified. Approaches to certifying and auditing fairness in LA include assessing datasets, machine learning models, and the end-to-end LA process for fairness, transparency, and robustness. Based on Slade and Prinsloo’s six principals for ethical LA, relevant audit approaches will be deduced. Auditing AI applications in LA is a complex process that requires technical capabilities and needs to consider the perspectives of all stakeholders. This paper proposes a comprehensive framework for auditing AI applications in LA systems from the perspective of learners' autonomy, provides insights into different auditing methodologies, and emphasizes the importance of reflection and dialogue among providers, buyers, and users of these systems to ensure their ethical and responsible use.

Changes in the exposure of California’s levee-protected critical infrastructure to flooding hazard in a warming climate

Levee systems are an important part of California’s water infrastructure, engineered to provide resilience against flooding and reduce flood losses. The growth in California is partly associated with costly infrastructure developments that led to population expansion in the levee protected areas. Therefore, potential changes in the flood hazard could have significant socioeconomic consequences over levee protected areas, especially in the face of a changing climate. In this study, we examine the possible impacts of a warming climate on flood hazard over levee protected land in California. We use gridded maximum daily runoff from global circulation models (GCMs) that represent a wide range of variability among the climate projections, and are recommended by the California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment Report, to investigate possible climate-induced changes. We also quantify the exposure of several critical infrastructure protected by the levee systems (e.g. roads, electric power transmission lines, natural gas pipelines, petroleum pipelines, and railroads) to flooding. Our results provide a detailed picture of change in flood risk for different levees and the potential societal consequences (e.g. exposure of people and critical infrastructure). Levee systems in the northern part of the Central Valley and coastal counties of Southern California are likely to observe the highest increase in flood hazard relative to the past. The most evident change is projected for the northern region of the Central Valley, including Butte, Glenn, Yuba, Sutter, Sacramento, and San Joaquin counties. In the leveed regions of these counties, based on the model simulations of the future, the historical 100-year runoff can potentially increase up to threefold under RCP8.5. We argue that levee operation and maintenance along with emergency preparation plans should take into account the changes in frequencies and intensities of flood hazard in a changing climate to ensure safety of levee systems and their protected infrastructure.

Seasonal changes of the South American monsoon system during the Mid-Holocene in the CMIP5 simulations

The South American Monsoon System (SAMS) is a major climatic feature of South America, and its domain extends from Amazon to La Plata basin. The SAMS region is vulnerable to variations of climate and precipitation patterns, which could impact economic activities and lead to potential societal consequences. In the face of a warming future scenario, the importance of the study of the past climate with numerical simulations is to evaluate the climate models and to assure the reliability of future projections. Here we investigate the Mid-Holocene SAMS, evaluating changes in strength, life cycle and associated dynamical mechanisms in ten Earth System Models simulations. Our results show that the SAMS was weaker in the Mid-Holocene than in the pre-industrial climate in December–January–February (DJF), but stronger in September–October–November (SON). This is probably a consequence of insolation variations in the Mid-Holocene, which contributed to changes in the moisture flux from the Atlantic Ocean to the continent, the strength of the upper-level atmospheric circulation, and the amount of precipitation over the SAMS region. Moreover, we suggest that the life cycle of the SAMS was altered during the Mid-Holocene, with an earlier onset and demise. Our results also indicate that Mid-Holocene SAMS changes are connected to precipitation variations near Northeast Brazil, in a dipole configuration of precipitation between western Amazon and Northeast Brazil, due to the influence of the Walker cell. Finally, this study highlights a need for improvement of the numerical models to better simulate the amount of precipitation over South America and the upper-level circulation over western Amazon in SON, which are crucial factors for a more realistic representation of the SAMS.

Silicon Valley, disruption, and the end of uncertainty

ABSTRACTThis paper reflects on the relationship between high-tech disruption narratives and uncertainty. My main argument is that an economic sociology of the future is incomplete without addressing the ‘demonic’ or rather eschatological elements apparent in the promissory twin rhetoric of disruption and inevitability that a number of contemporary technology firms employ. The conjuring up of liberatory high-tech futures implicates a political-philosophical perspective of the end game. It utilizes at once the productive power of uncertainty to create visions of ‘absolute riches’ and societal gain but at the same time narrows these futures down to one inevitable alternative to the status quo. Through the examples of two Silicon Valley disruptor firms, I argue that these eschatological narratives need to be opened to social scientific critique in order to examine their potential societal consequences above and beyond the narrow geographic confines of ‘the Valley.’

Zwischen Abgrenzung und Aufklärung: Die Berichterstattung über die Antibabypille in der Schweizer Frauenzeitschrift Annabelle in den späten 1960er Jahren

The birth control pill and its potential societal consequences were only discussed publicly in Switzerland from the mid-1960s onwards. While initial reports about the birth control pill were scarce, a change soon took place and reports became rather frequent. Women’s magazines played a crucial role in that change. The Swiss women’s magazine Annabelle not only provided its readers with knowledge concerning the contraceptive pill but also produced behavioral norms in terms of sexuality and society. In the essay at hand, the medical and sociopolitical context in which Annabelle thematized the new contraceptive pill in their issues from 1966 to 1968 will be examined.

Is Sharing up for Sale? Market Exchanges in the Sharing Economy

The so-called “sharing economy”, meaning peer-to-peer based sharing of resources, is growing at an ever increasing pace. Interestingly, the business models within the sharing economy are everything but homogeneous, covering exchange mechanisms that range from classical market exchanges involving negotiated prices to exchanges that do not rely on monetary payments. Past research has neglected the question whether different exchange mechanisms in the sharing economy may lead to varying outcomes. Based on social exchange and relational models theory, we propose that the success of market-pricing business models in the sharing economy in terms of motivating users to participate depends on whether the exchange relationship is perceived as a social or economic exchange. Further, we propose that market exchanges in the sharing economy may cause a crowding-out of prosocial behaviors of sharing. We test our hypothesized framework in two experimental studies (N1=440; N2=60). Results of these studies support the developed theorizing and have important implications for the design of sharing economy business models as well as their potential societal consequences.

Biosolar cells: global artificial photosynthesis needs responsive matrices with quantum coherent kinetic control for high yield.

This contribution discusses why we should consider developing artificial photosynthesis with the tandem approach followed by the Dutch BioSolar Cells consortium, a current operational paradigm for a global artificial photosynthesis project. We weigh the advantages and disadvantages of a tandem converter against other approaches, including biomass. Owing to the low density of solar energy per unit area, artificial photosynthetic systems must operate at high efficiency to minimize the land (or sea) area required. In particular, tandem converters are a much better option than biomass for densely populated countries and use two photons per electron extracted from water as the raw material into chemical conversion to hydrogen, or carbon-based fuel when CO2 is also used. For the average total light sum of 40 mol m−2 d−1 for The Netherlands, the upper limits are many tons of hydrogen or carbon-based fuel per hectare per year. A principal challenge is to forge materials for quantitative conversion of photons to chemical products within the physical limitation of an internal potential of ca 2.9 V. When going from electric charge in the tandem to hydrogen and back to electricity, only the energy equivalent to 1.23 V can be stored in the fuel and regained. A critical step is then to learn from nature how to use the remaining difference of ca 1.7 V effectively by triple use of one overpotential for preventing recombination, kinetic stabilization of catalytic intermediates and finally generating targeted heat for the release of oxygen. Probably the only way to achieve this is by using bioinspired responsive matrices that have quantum–classical pathways for a coherent conversion of photons to fuels, similar to what has been achieved by natural selection in evolution. In appendix A for the expert, we derive a propagator that describes how catalytic reactions can proceed coherently by a convergence of time scales of quantum electron dynamics and classical nuclear dynamics. We propose that synergy gains by such processes form a basis for further progress towards high efficiency and yield for a global project on artificial photosynthesis. Finally, we look at artificial photosynthesis research in The Netherlands and use this as an example of how an interdisciplinary approach is beneficial to artificial photosynthesis research. We conclude with some of the potential societal consequences of a large-scale roll out of artificial photosynthesis.

A Conceptual Tool for Climate Change Risk Assessment

Abstract This study develops a new conceptual tool to explore the potential societal consequences of climate change. The conceptual tool delineates three quasi-independent factors that contribute to the societal consequences of climate change: how climate changes; the sensitivity of physical systems, biological resources, and social institutions to climate change; and the degree of human dependence on those systems, resources, and institutions. This conceptual tool, as currently developed, is not predictive, but it enables the exploration of the dependence of climate change risks on key contributing factors. In exploring a range of plausible behaviors for these factors and methods for their synthesis, the authors show that plausible assumptions lead to a wide range in potential societal consequences of climate change. This illustrates that the societal consequences of climate change are currently difficult to constrain and that high-consequence climate change outcomes are not necessarily low probability, as suggested by leading economic analyses. With careful implementation, this new conceptual tool has potential to increase public understanding of climate change risks, to support risk management decision making, or to facilitate communication of climate risks across disciplinary boundaries.

Contribution of ocean overturning circulation to tropical rainfall peak in the Northern Hemisphere

study tropical rainfall using a global energetic framework. We show that the meridional overturning circulation contributes significantly to the hemispheric asymmetry in tropical rainfall by transporting heat from the Southern Hemisphere to the Northern Hemisphere, and thereby pushing the tropical rain band north. This northward shift in tropical precipitation is seen in global climate model simulations when ocean heat transport is included, regardless of whether continents are present or not. If the strength of the meridional overturning circulation is reduced in the future as a result of global warming, as has been suggested 4 , precipitation patterns in the tropics could change, with potential societal consequences. One of the defining features of the Earth’s climate is the fact that tropical rainfall primarily maximizes within the Northern Hemisphere (Fig. 1a,b). This is especially evident in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific oceans, where precipitation near 5 S is much weaker than at the equivalent locations north of the Equator, which are some of the rainiest regions on Earth in the intertropical convergence zone. Throughout the tropics, societies as diverse as subsistence farmers in the Sahel and the technology-based cities of India are reliant, directly or indirectly, on monsoon rains. How tropical rainfall evolves in the future will have important and widespread social consequences. Precipitation in the tropics exists largely within narrow zonal bands owing to the large-scale atmospheric overturning known as theHadleycirculation 5 .Withinthelowerbranchofthiscirculation, the trade winds converge near the Equator, drying the subtropics and bringing moisture into the rain bands. This circulation is thermally direct, and thus transports energy in the directions of its upper branch. The Hadley circulation also plays a primary role in determining the hemispheric asymmetry of tropical precipitation because it transports copious amounts of moisture from the Southern Hemisphere to the Northern Hemisphere. A northward cross-equatorial mass transport in the moist lower branch of the

Medical Malpractice Problem

The medical malpractice problem is extremely complex and is perceived very differently by health care pro viders, patients, and other segments of society. As a widely recognized problem, it is of relatively recent origin. Its poten tial societal consequences include disruption of health serv ices, waste and maldistribution of economic and human re sources, and a severe strain on a variety of our traditional social institutions. The "crisis" of malpractice is a product of many forces, including a disturbing level of negligent and improper medical care, frequently unrealistic patient expecta tions, and the growing "philosophy of entitlement" which is rampant among Americans. Responses to the problem have sometimes been ill-advised and emotional. Most often, the problem is seen as one of inadequate or overpriced malprac tice insurance, though careful analysis suggests that insurance issues are merely symptoms of the real problem. Neverthe less, insurance-based solutions have proven to be politically expedient and have produced at least temporary alleviation of the problem. Ultimately, though, other approaches will be necessary, and careful, objective research is required to iden tify and test long-term options.