Potential Land Use Research Articles

Carbon emission reduction potential of land use in typical alpine meadow region in China

Alpine meadows are primarily situated in mountainous areas and plateaus, exhibiting a high sensitivity to both climate fluctuations and human activities. However, understanding the factors influencing land use carbon emissions change in these regions remains complex, with uncertain mechanisms. Thus, it is imperative to accurately grasp the factors affecting carbon emissions in alpine meadows. We conducted a study estimating land use carbon emissions in the Upper Yellow River in Gannan from 1990 to 2020, using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition model and the Tapio decoupling model to identify driving factors of land use carbon emissions. Additionally, we analyzed the correlation between these factors and economic growth. The findings showed that the land use efficiency in the Upper Yellow River in Gannan region improved substantially by 436 %. Particularly, construction land emerged as the primary source of carbon emissions. The land use carbon emission increased with the increase of carbon emission intensity of construction land and the expansion of the size of construction land. Moreover, economic development and land use carbon emissions are weak decoupled. These results suggest that economic development is considered the primary driving force behind the increase in land use carbon emissions in the region. To achieve the decoupling of economic development and land use carbon emissions, we propose to improve land use efficiency by adjusting the industrial structure as well as improving land use efficiency.

The Identification of Land Use Conflicts and Policy Implications for Donghai County Based on the “Production–Living–Ecological” Functions

The rapid development of urbanization has continuously encroached on people’s living space and ecological space, leading to an imbalance in territorial spatial functions. Identifying potential land use conflicts and optimizing land use structure are conducive to carrying out territorial spatial planning rationally. In this paper, we adopt the suitability assessment method to evaluate the suitability of land for production, living, and ecological functions and then use the land use conflict identification matrix to identify land use conflicts in Donghai County and make relevant suggestions according to the intensity of land use conflicts. The results of this study show the following: (1) the areas of suitable land use zones, strong conflict zones, medium conflict zones, and weak conflict zones in Donghai County are, respectively, 58.83%, 10.62%, 26.31%, and 4.24%. (2) The spatial distribution differences in the different conflict zones could determine the pertinence of conflict mitigation and spatial planning. In the process of the urbanization of Donghai County, ecological environmental protection is still the top priority. (3) It is necessary to economically and intensively use construction land, improving its fine management level. Land use efficiency should be maximized, and the spatial distribution of national territory should be reasonably optimized while strengthening the guiding role of planning. This study addresses land conflicts from the perspective of spatial planning rather than economic behavior. It also provides significant insight into land use layout at the county level, which is exactly what China is exploring in the new era.

Markov Chain Analysis of Land-use Changes in India and Maharashtra

Dynamics of Agriculture resembles the history of agriculture in India which examines the emphasizing significance to the nation's legacy, culture and civilization. India's agriculture changed after independence from a food-scarce nation to one that exports food this comes true primarily due to the result of scientific advancements. The present study is based on secondary data with the use of Markov Chain analysis to ascertain land-use changes in India and Maharashtra state. Changes in land use brought on by agriculture, urbanization and environmental factors significantly impact resource management and sustainability. We build a Markov Chain model with secondary land utilization data from government reports to measure the transition probabilities between various land use categories over time. The Markov chain model is easy to understand and communicate. It effectively captures transitions between land-use changes over time. The model works with limited data as compared to other complex models, making it accessible for studies. The results of the study emphasize dynamic interactions between various land-use patterns in India and Maharashtra. There we have concluded a stable land-use changing pattern. A trend towards intensive cropping has been observed during this study. This study reveals important trends in land conversion, most notably the growth of urban areas at the expense of forested and agricultural areas. The predictive abilities of model highlight the significance of well-informed policy-making for sustainable land management by offering insights into potential future land use scenarios.

A Review of Urban Planning Approaches to Reduce Air Pollution Exposures.

With only 12% of the human population living in cities meeting the air quality standards set by the WHO guidelines, there is a critical need for coordinated strategies to meet the requirements of a healthy society. One pivotal mechanism for addressing societal expectations on air pollution and human health is to employ strategic modeling within the urban planning process. This review synthesizes research to inform coordinated strategies for a healthy society. Through strategic modeling in urban planning, we seek to uncover integrated solutions that mitigate air pollution, enhance public health, and create sustainable urban environments. Successful urban planning can help reduce air pollution by optimizing city design with regard to transportation systems. As one specific example, ventilation corridors i.e. aim to introduce natural wind into urban areas to improve thermal comfort and air quality, and they can be effective if well-designed and managed. However, physical barriers such as sound walls and vegetation must be carefully selected following design criteria with significant trade-offs that must be modeled quantitatively. These tradeoffs often involve balancing effectiveness, cost, aesthetics, and environmental impact. For instance, sound walls are highly effective at reducing noise, provide immediate impact, and are long-lasting. However, they are expensive to construct, visually unappealing, and may block views and sunlight. To address the costly issue of sound walls, a potential solution is implementing vegetation with a high leaf area index or leaf area density. This alternative is also an effective method for air pollution reduction with varying land-use potential. Ultimately, emission regulations are a key aspect of all such considerations. Given the broad range of developments, concerns, and considerations spanning city management, ventilation corridors, physical barriers, and transportation planning, this review aims to summarize the effect of a range of urban planning methods on air pollution considerations.

Identification of Potential Land Use Conflicts in Shandong Province: A New Framework

Land use conflicts (LUCs) have become a significant global issue. Accurately identifying potential LUCs is crucial for mediating these conflicts, optimizing land use structure, and enhancing land use function. The necessary conditions of LUCs are land use multi-suitability (LUMS), land resource scarcity (LRS), and diversity of demands (DD). However, few studies have approached LUC identification from these three dimensions simultaneously. In addition, when assessing the diversity of demand, only human needs are considered and wildlife needs are ignored. In order to address this gap in the research, this paper constructs a novel framework for LUC identification and proposes an induction-oriented governance path. LUMS was evaluated from three aspects: construction suitability, cultivation suitability, and ecological suitability. LRS is measured from three dimensions: construction land, cultivated land, and ecological land scarcity. The DD is expanded into human and wildlife demand diversity. By analyzing the combination of LUMS, LRS, and DD, LUCs are classified using the potential LUC identification Rubik’s cube model, and corresponding governance paths are suggested. In Shandong Province, potential LUCs are relatively high, with strong, medium, and weak conflicts accounting for 27.39%, 57.10%, and 13.06%, respectively. Potential strong conflicts are mainly distributed in the metropolitan suburbs and in the western plain of Shandong Province. Cultivated land is the main potential land use conflict space. The new framework of LUC identification proposed in this paper can effectively identify potential LUCs. Our research provides scientific reference for sustainable land use.

Analysis of land use change on flood discharge of Bengawan Solo Upstream sub-basin

Abstract This study investigated land use changes of Bengawan Solo Upstream sub-watershed impact toward flood discharge between year 2015 and year 2019. The daily rainfall intensity was calculated statistically by using analysis frequency, and effective rainfall was acquired by compensation of potential storage and land use. Runoff discharge was calculated using the Nakayasu and the Soil Conservation Service method, while base flow discharge calculated using equation suggested by Hydrograph Synder Synthetic Gama-1. Land use change is represented by curve number (CN) value for year 2015 and year 2019 at values of 78.11 and 78.07, respectively. Decline of CN value was caused by surge of vegetation land area. Agricultural land CN value was not much different from settlement CN value. Overall, flood discharge that occurred plummeted between year 2015 and year 2019, although it was not significant. Decrease in flood discharge corresponds to decrease in CN value. Decline of CN value as much as 0.05 % yielded decrease of flood discharge as much as 0.16 % until 0.22 % related to return period.

Habitat quality on the edge of anthropogenic pressures: Predicting the impact of land use changes in the Brazilian Upper Paraguay river Basin

Landscape changes driven by anthropogenic activities often have negative impacts on ecosystems, jeopardizing the provision of vital services that sustain biotic elements and wildlife. Predicting the effects of such transformations is crucial for developing strategies to mitigate ecological damage. This study explores the interaction of land use changes and habitat quality estimates in the Upper Paraguay River Basin in Brazil, using the InVEST Habitat Quality model to estimate spatiotemporal landscape trends and evaluate the potential impact of land use policies for the future. Under a business-as-usual scenario by 2050, potential land use changes are simulated for shaping habitat quality, habitat degradation, and habitat rarity estimates as landscape proxies for biodiversity conservation. Results show an extensive expansion of pastures through deforestation, leading to progressive habitat degradation with a significant decay in the predicted and observed habitat quality. The habitat quality index estimates show a spatial decrease from 0.78 to 0.57 for the 1989–2050 period. The same trend is observed in protected areas for the period 2019–2050, with an increase of anthropogenic land use and a decrease of the habitat quality from 0.80 to 0.57 in conservation units, and from 0.75 to 0.53 in indigenous lands. For improved conservation outcomes, this work introduces new insights for shaping environmental actions that can be flagged as sustainable land management practices and ecological perspectives towards spatial pressures at different scales. Therefore, government institutions responsible for the protection of conservation units and indigenous communities can be informed about potential land use impacts on their territories. The findings suggest that incorporating additional scenario trends and climate-related variables could be a valuable direction for future studies to extend further the modelling approaches explored in this work.

Quantifying the influence of climate change on streamflow of Rietspruit sub-basin, South Africa

ABSTRACT This study integrated climate projections from five global climate models (GCMs) into the soil and water assessment tool to evaluate the potential impact of climate alterations on the Rietspruit River sub-basin under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5). The model's performance was evaluated based on the coefficient of determination (R2), percent bias (PBIAS), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), probability (P)-factor and correlation coefficient (R)-factor. Calibration results showed an R2 of 0.62, NSE of 0.60, PBIAS of 20, P-factor of 0.86 and R-factor of 0.91, while validation produced an R2 of 0.64, NSE of 0.61, PBIAS of 40, P-factor of 0.85 and R-factor of 1.22. Precipitation is predicted to increase under both RCPs. Maximum temperature is projected to increase under both RCPs, with a major increase in the winter months. Minimum temperatures are projected to decrease under RCP4.5 in the near (−0.99 °C) and mid (−0.23 °C) futures, while the far future is projected to experience an increase of 0.14 °C. Precipitation and temperature changes correspond to increases in streamflow by an average of 53% (RCP4.5) and 47% (RCP8.5). These results indicate a need for an integrated approach in catchment water resource management amid potential climate and land use variations.

Assessing impacts of alternative land use strategies on water partitioning, storage and ages in drought‐sensitive lowland catchments using tracer‐aided ecohydrological modelling

AbstractContinuing negative rainfall anomalies, coupled with climate change projections of increased drought severity and frequency, drive an urgent need to increase resilience and integration in land and water management strategies in many regions of the world. However, complex interactions between land cover change, ecohydrological partitioning and water availability are difficult to quantify, especially at different temporal and spatial scales. In conjunction with local stakeholders, we developed plausible, alternative land use scenarios (including forest diversification and agroforestry schemes) based on the existing four primary land use types (i.e., conifer and broadleaved forests, arable agriculture, and pasture) in a 66 km2 drought‐sensitive catchment in northern Germany. We used modelling to evaluate spatial and temporal changes in water flux partitioning, storage and ages. The spatially‐distributed, tracer‐aided ecohydrological model, EcH2O‐iso, calibrated using hydrometric, ecohydrological and isotopic data at daily time steps from 2007 to 2019 was used in this assessment. The results showed that replacing conifer forests with uneven‐aged mixed forests with younger broad‐leaved trees had the greatest potential for reducing total evapotranspiration and increasing groundwater recharge. For coniferous forests, a 50% increase in the proportion of broad‐leaved trees was projected to result in an 11% increase in groundwater recharge across the catchment. The mixed‐forest management alternatives also reduced groundwater turnover times, which would support more rapid recovery of soil moisture and groundwater stores following droughts. This study demonstrates that such an ecohydrological modelling approach has the potential to contribute useful science‐based evidence for policy makers allowing quantitative assessment of potential land use effects on water availability and effective communication with stakeholders.

Assessment of land use land cover change and its effects using artificial neural network-based cellular automation

The challenge of urban growth and land use land cover (LULC) change is particularly critical in developing countries. The use of remote sensing and GIS has helped to generate LULC thematic maps, which have proven immensely valuable in resource and land-use management, facilitating sustainable development by balancing developmental interests and conservation measures. The research utilized socio-economic and spatial variables such as slope, elevation, distance from streams, distance from roads, distance from built-up areas, and distance from the center of town to determine their impact on the LULC of 2016 and 2019. The research integrates Artificial Neural Network with Cellular Automta to forecast and establish potential land use changes for the years 2025 and 2040. Comparison between the predicted and actual LULC maps of 2022 indicates high agreement with kappa hat of 0.77 and a percentage of correctness of 86.83%. The study indicates that the built-up area will increase by 8.37 km2 by 2040, resulting in a reduction of 7.08 km2 and 1.16 km2 in protected and agricultural areas, respectively. These findings will assist urban planners and lawmakers to adopt management and conservation strategies that balance urban expansion and conservation of natural resources leading to the sustainable development of the cities.

Agroforestry based eco-tourism as an innovative solution for economic, environmental and climate resilience in Batur UNESCO Global Geopark, Bali, Indonesia.

In recent years such challenges in Batur UNESCO Global Geopark (BUGG) become increasingly complex and dynamic as they involve multiple parties and multi-level institutions with various interests. The sustainable land use practices in BUGG have great potential in fulfilling the needs of local, restoring biodiversity, Sustainable Development Goals 2030, and climate change. This study aims to explore the potential of land use for promoting tourism based on sustainable land use practices associated with the needs of communities in climate-smart agriculture and forestry. The field survey was done in January - March 2023 on BUGG region, in-depth interviews were conducted with local communities, government officers, and tourist guides; geospatial analyses include 48 villages of BUGG. The study resulted in the potential of climate-smart agroforestry for promoting tourism activities in the BUGG including Kintamani oranges farming (33,3%), Kintamani coffee farming (33,3%), horticulture farming under Eucalyptus trees (23,4%) and bee farming under Eucalyptus trees associated with culture for geopark tourism (10%). In addition, the agroforestry of coffee and oranges has mutual benefit ecologically and feasible financially with NPV IDR2.419.361.435,70; IRR 90,79% and R/C 2,31.

Analysis of potential land use conflict for reducing landslide risk in Tawangmangu District Karanganyar Regency

Increasing demands for land use and limited resources lead to land use conflicts. Identification and resolution of land use conflicts is very important in order to use land resources fairly and achieve sustainable development. The research location is Tawangmangu District, Central Java Province. Based on its geographical conditions, Tawangmangu District is an area prone to landslides. Increasing tourism development in the Tawangmangu sub-district has the potential for land use conflicts and will affect the risk of landslides. The research objectives are: (1). Analyzing of Land Use Changes in Tawangmangu District in 2013 - 2023, (2). Analyzing Patterns of Land Use Conflict in Tawangmangu District in 2013 - 2023, (3). Analyzing Land Use Conflict Patterns for Reducing Landslide Risk in Tawangmangu in 2023. The research method is a survey method, the research form is descriptive quantitative with a spatial approach. In this study, spatial descriptions of land use, changes in land use, patterns of land use conflicts in the study area are displayed in the form of thematic maps. Data collection methods are field observations, interviews, document review, image and map interpretation. The main data source for land use is multi-temporal satellite imagery of the Tawangmangu District area. The analysis used is spatial analysis which is processed using a Geographic Information System with the output in the form of land use change maps and land use conflict pattern maps. The results of the study show that there have been significant changes in land use during the period 2013 - 2023, and spatially a pattern of land use conflicts has been formed in the Tawangmangu District.

Avoiding ecosystem and social impacts of hydropower, wind, and solar in Southern Africa’s low-carbon electricity system

The scale at which low-carbon electricity will need to be deployed to meet economic growth, electrification, and climate goals in Africa is unprecedented, yet the potential land use and freshwater impacts from this massive build-out of energy infrastructure is poorly understood. In this study, we characterize low-impact onshore wind, solar photovoltaics, and hydropower potential in Southern Africa and identify the cost-optimal mix of electricity generation technologies under different sets of socio-environmental land use and freshwater constraints and carbon targets. We find substantial wind and solar potential after applying land use protections, but about 40% of planned or proposed hydropower projects face socio-environmental conflicts. Applying land and freshwater protections results in more wind, solar, and battery capacity and less hydropower capacity compared to scenarios without protections. While a carbon target favors hydropower, the amount of cost-competitively selected hydropower is at most 45% of planned or proposed hydropower capacity in any scenario—and is only 25% under socio-environmental protections. Achieving both carbon targets and socio-environmental protections results in system cost increases of 3-6%. In the absence of land and freshwater protections, environmental and social impacts from new hydropower development could be significant.

LAND MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE

This article is dedicated to the search for an effective model of environmentally friendly agricultural land use and the agricultural economy in Ukraine, taking into account the rating assessment of the investment attractiveness of administrative-territorial features of land resources and directions aimed at stimulating investment activities. The article conducts an analysis and researches the directions of utilization, development trends, and mechanisms of state support for stimulating the investment attractiveness of land resources. In the course of the research, a list of measures dedicated to the development of directions and mechanisms of support for stimulation, formed through investment attractiveness, is examined, considering the nature of their distribution and efficiency, taking into account eco-friendly technologies. The study explores the goals and objectives of eco-economic land use through the formation of investment attractiveness of land resource potential as a scientific prerequisite for the development of land relations in Ukraine. Priority sectors of the economy are highlighted, through which the potential of land use, land resources, and investment attractiveness is revealed. The article analyzes and outlines land relations and land use problems, proposing ways to address them. It identifies and proposes several significant mechanisms for supporting state incentives for investment attractiveness. A list of measures is proposed for the environmentally safe and dynamic development of market land relations in Ukraine. The directions for regulating environmental land use are identified as one of the most important and positive platforms for regional investment attractiveness development.

China's energy-water-land system co-evolution under carbon neutrality goal and climate impacts

China's 2060 carbon neutrality goal has significant implications for energy, water, and land systems. However, the multi-sector dynamics among China's energy-water-land system have rarely been examined explicitly. This study adopts an integrated assessment framework to simulate China's energy-water-land system co-evolution under alternative carbon neutrality scenarios and climate impacts. Results show that although the net zero emission target provides the incentive for the energy system to move away from fossil fuels, total water withdrawal will increase due to the deployment of nuclear, bioenergy, and coal power plants with carbon capture and storage. Diversifying the negative emission technologies, by leveraging direct air capture technology, can alleviate the potential water stress and land use conflicts, which would otherwise be exacerbated by large-scale deployment of afforestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Northwest and northeast regions of China are the hotspots experiencing water withdrawal increases, while Bohai Rim and coastal regions are identified to experience fierce land competition. This study demonstrates the potential for general applicability to carry out resource planning and policy evaluation from the multi-sector coordination perspective.

Sustainable land use: Policy implications of systematic land regularization in Mozambique

Security of land tenure is key to achieve the sustainable development goal of eradicating poverty and can be improved through the regularization of rights to land, property, and natural resources. Making cities and human settlements sustainable, requires participatory and integrated land use planning, accounting for the land’s potential and constraints, with a view to medium and long-term use. The government of Mozambique is actively promoting a process of massive regularization, under common terms of reference for service providers. The terms of reference also intend to achieve a linkage between regularization and community land use plans. The aim of this research is to assess the robustness of such plans to detect and overcome potential conflicts between the given and the potential land use, as well as constraints, weaknesses and threats. This research uses a mixed documental analysis to undertake an ex-ante assessment of 15 participatory community land use plans. Five categories are assumed as a reference of good practices in land use planning suggested by universal and African literature. It was found that the common terms of reference and guidelines promote participatory capacity and provides general directions of community development. However, good practices of land use planning such as effective participation in all phases, alternative scenarios for future land use, regional integration, and disasters risk management are less promoted. It is suggested that the guidelines go beyond the immediate needs of land register, to consider that such interventions in rural areas shape the culture of land use, which, in turn, will influence sustainability in higher level settlements.

Evaluation of Land Suitability for Sustainable Maize Crops in Popayato District, Pohuwato Regency

Utilisation of land resources requires information on the potential and limitations of land use so that commodities to be cultivated can achieve optimal results. This study aims to determine the suitability of land for corn (Zea mays L.) in Popayato District, Pohuwato Regency. This research uses a qualitative method that combines a statistical analysis approach with spatial analysis techniques. Results pH, texture, effective depth, organic C-C, clay CEC, temperature, rainfall, drainage, slope, altitude, and erosion. The maize crop requires an optimum temperature between 26°C and 807-1200 mm of rainfall annually, which is a uniform distribution of rainfall. The soil has a texture of loam, dusty loam, or sandy loam which is ideal for maize growth and development. Maize requires sufficient aeration so that the plant roots can absorb nutrients well. The soil drainage is good and the growth rate is quite fast.

Deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions could arise when replacing palm oil with other vegetable oils

Oil crops are among the main drivers of global land use changes. Palm oil is possibly the most criticized, as a driver of primary tropical forests loss. This has generated two different reactions in its use in various sectors (e.g., food, feed, biodiesel, surfactant applications, etc.): from one side there is a growing claim for deforestation-free palm oil, whereas on the other side the attention raised towards other vegetable oils as possible substitutes, such as soybean, rapeseed and sunflower oil. We assess potential land use changes and consequent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for switching from palm oil to other oils and compare this solution to deforestation-free palm oils. We consider three scenarios of 25 %, 50 % and 100 % palm oil replacement in the eight major oil crop producing countries. Total GHG emissions account for anthropogenic emissions generated along the life cycle of the field production process and potential forest carbon stock losses from land use change for oil crops expansion. Replacing palm oil with other oils would have a worthless effect in terms of global emissions reduction since GHG emissions remain approximatively stable across the three scenarios, whereas it would produce a deforestation increase of 28.2 to 51.9 Mha worldwide (or 7 to 21.5 Mha if excluding the unlikely deforestation in USA, Russia, Ukraine and the offset deforestation in China, India). Conversely, if the global palm oil production becomes deforestation-free, its GHG emissions would be reduced by 92 %, switching from the current 371 to 29 Mt CO2eq per year. Although highlighting the historical unsustainability of oil palm plantations, results show that replacing them with other oil crops almost never represents a more sustainable solution, thus potentially questioning sustainability claims of palm oil free products with respect to deforestation-free palm oil.

Представяне на „Софтуер за потенциална относителна оценка и класификация по пригодност за земеползване на земеделските земи в България“

In 2023, I developed “Software for potential land use suitability classification of agricultural land in Bulgaria” (Radovanova, 2023). It works in MS Office terms, programmed entirely through Microsoft Excel. The software with the corresponding methodology is essentially an update of the legally adopted “Methodology for work on the cadastre of agricultural land in Bulgaria” (Petrov E. et al., 1988), and this was achieved by a newly developed “Methodology for potential assessment of agricultural land in Bulgaria” (Radovanova, 2020). Actual and potential assessment are fully comparable in terms of approach, scheme, parameters, etc. The difference between actual and potential assessment, as in the case of software, is that in the case of potential assessment of agricultural land, potential characteristics (subject to improvement by external intervention) are used. These characteristics are: depth of the humus horizon, soil reaction, humus content, groundwater level, stoniness of the plough soil and degree of salinity and/or alkalinity. For these characteristics, 86 newly developed Bonite scales and algorithms have been applied (Radovanova, 2020). The software uses the built-in functions of Microsoft Excel. The mechanism of the existing final land use suitability categorisation of the assessed land is fully maintained, but is now considered in a “potential” aspect and uses the new potential algorithms. The software allows the printing of an official document of the potential assessment of the agricultural land concerned.

A new assessment framework to forecast land use and carbon storage under different SSP-RCP scenarios in China

The vision of achieving “carbon neutrality” has created new requirements for the projection of land use and land cover (LULC), as well as the carbon storage (CS) of terrestrial ecosystem. Global-scale LULC scenario assessments with coarser resolution introduces uncertainties to national and regional-scale studies, which in turn has a negative impact on CS analysis based on land use perspective. Therefore, we proposed a new framework for scenario-based assessment that integrates the global-scale Land Use Harmonization (LUH2) dataset, Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, which we called LUH2-PLUS-InVEST (LPI) model. Our aim is to investigate the potential impacts of the combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) on China's future LULC and CS. By calibrating the demands, we generated structural predictions that were consistent with the actual land use. Furthermore, we explored the spatial heterogeneity of potential land use changes using 500 m × 500 m downscale simulations. Additionally, we developed a quantitative evaluation of CS from a spatiotemporal perspective and made recommendations on potential ecological threats. Our findings indicate that the basic characteristics of LULC and CS are determined by the natural context and that the prospects of land use distribution and carbon sequestration capacity are influenced by global emission pressure, regional competition, and China's unique development pattern. The results demonstrate that the LUH2-PLUS-INVEST model can provide an effective method for modeling the feedbacks of LULC and CS to the climate-society system.