Potential Natural Disasters Research Articles

Disaster preparedness: The role of spatial disaster learning using geospatial technology

Preparedness for natural disasters is crucial for people living in high-risk areas along the Ring of Fire, such as people in Indonesia. Although Spatial Disaster Learning using Geospatial Technology (SDL-GeoTech) has been developed, its effectiveness in enhancing students’ preparedness remains unproven. This study examines the impact of SDL-GeoTech on junior high school students’ readiness using a quasi-experimental, time-series, single-group pre-post-test design. The research involved students from three schools: SMA 1 Grati Pasuruan (flood-prone), SMA 1 Puncu Kediri (volcanic eruption-prone), and SMA 3 Mataram Lombok (earthquake-prone). Data were collected through tests on knowledge, skills, and attitudes, followed by t-test analysis at a 0.05 significance level. The results of this study show SDL-GeoTech was significantly able to improve students’ preparedness, including their knowledge, skills, and attitudes. These findings highlight SDL-GeoTech as an innovative tool for disaster education, with the potential to enhance curricula and teaching strategies, especially in vulnerable areas.Contribution: This research teaches students to use techno-geospatial learning through SDL-GeoTech, equipping those in the Ring of Fire region to be better prepared for potential natural disasters such as earthquakes and floods. The proven analysis of SDL-GeoTech has shown that it enhances students’ knowledge, skills and attitude in preparedness in dealing with disasters.

Scenario construction and vulnerability assessment of natural hazards-triggered power grid accidents

In light of escalating urbanization trends and climate change impacts worldwide, the susceptibility of urban power grids to natural disasters has become an overarching global concern. Prior research has predominantly concentrated on singular calamities while often disregarding cumulative repercussions from multiple concurrent events affecting power grid resilience. This investigation presents an exhaustive framework for assessing grid vulnerabilities by quantifying diverse impacts from potential natural disaster scenarios and delineating adaptive pathways for evaluating inadvertent occurrences. The framework amalgamates an extensive array of metrics— including probability assessments, system state evaluations, trigger threshold analyses, responsiveness measurements, and adaptability adjustments— within a dynamic scenario-oriented model. The inquiry progresses through distinct stages: formulating an all-encompassing methodology for assessing vulnerabilities; assessing varied impacts stemming from different environmental perils; mapping out post-disaster evolutions; and executing a case analysis focusing on an urban power grid.Concentrating specifically on rainfall, snowfall, and freezing incidents, the case analysis uses locale-specific data to appraise grid susceptibilities while employing multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to facilitate decision-making. During this deliberative process, optimal strategies are derived, and mitigative actions are recommended with the aim of diminishing power-grid vulnerabilities. This investigation underscores intricate risk dynamics within urban power grids while presenting a feasible framework for sustainable planning and effective emergency responses in confronting natural hazards.

The Role of Mass Media to Prevent Potential Natural Disasters: a Study on the News of Iron Sand Mining Conflicts

Conflicts of interest are inevitable when the natural potential is harnessed in mining. This happened in Seluma Regency, Bengkulu Province, Indonesia, in a conflict due to the impact of iron sand mining involving the community, mine owners, and the government. Mining always intersects with environmental degradation, which leads to disaster triggers. This is also inseparable from the media attention shown in its reporting. The purpose of this study is to determine the role of the media in preventing potential disaster events, specifically related to reporting on mining conflicts in the iron sand mines in the Seluma district. This research uses a descriptive qualitative approach. The analysis method was carried out using a framing analysis from Robert N. Entman, where researchers will dismantle the construction of news submitted by the media from the iron sand mine conflict in Seluma Regency. The study's findings suggest that the information conveyed in the news of iron sand mining conflict emphasizes the impact on the survival of the fishermen of the surrounding community. This research shows that the media can play a role in preventing potential natural disasters through reporting on mining conflicts with the perspective of sustainability and environmental sustainability.

Does community resilience affect household asset portfolio choices?

AbstractThis paper identifies a positive (negative) relationship between community resilience and household stock market participation (deposit flows). These relationships are less pronounced for higher‐income and married households, indicating an income channel and a marriage channel, respectively. Furthermore, compared to white and Asian households, black households are more sensitive to the effects of community resilience on household investments and deposit flows. Overall, our findings suggest that improvements in people's preparedness for, resilience against, and recovery from potential hazardous events and natural disasters shift households' asset portfolio choices from safe savings to risky stock investments.

Risk Assessment of Mamak Dam Based on The ICOLD Modification Method and Risk Index Method

The Mamak Dam has the risk of damage and the need for evacuation at an extreme downstream level. Risk considerations are based on the potential natural disasters of the dam, the impact of dam failure, design loads, and safety coefficients. The Risk Index method results in a score with parameters such as spillway capacity adequacy, safety factor adequacy against slopes, disaster factor (hazard), and all parameters analyzed to determine the Dam Safety Index (Idam). The drawback of the Risk Index method is neglecting downstream failure analysis. The ICOLD modification method for parameters is the same as the Risk Index method, but the ICOLD method considers downstream analysis. The modification involves adding parameters, such as the condition of the dam slope cover layer, based on the Mamak Dam Large Inspection results. In the Risk Index method, the Idam calculation value is 262.5. The total risk index value for Mamak Dam is 51.73, with a dam safety value of 92.337. In the ICOLD method, the Idam calculation value is 245, with a total risk index value for Mamak Dam of 48.28 and a Dam Safety value of 92.848. Meanwhile, using the Modified ICOLD method, the Idam calculation value is 245, with a total risk index value for Mamak Dam of 49.93 and a Dam Safety value of 92.603. Based on these results, the Dam Safety value with the Modified ICOLD method has decreased but still falls within the satisfactory classification (>75). Therefore, it can be concluded that Mamak Dam is currently at a safe level against normal loads and extraordinary loads (design floods and design earthquakes).

Teacher Stress and Resilience During the Cascading Events of Winter Storm Uri and COVID-19

Teachers experienced additional hardship throughout the pandemic, including new stressors, contributing to worsened mental health. Many teachers across the Southwest endured the added strain of Winter Storm Uri in February of 2021. This qualitative study explored the impacts of the winter storm on teachers' experiences of stress and trauma within their work and personal lives, with the intention of better understanding support options to provide teachers during and after similar crises. Qualitative analysis was conducted using inductive thematic analysis and yielded five main themes: instructional impacts, administrator and district relations, psychological impacts, basic resource impacts, and concern for others. Results from the analysis illuminated teachers’ sources of stress, resilience, and support in coping with trauma. Implications for responses to potential future natural disasters, including possible policy changes and interventions, are explored.

Study of responsive tourism destination areas to reduce disaster risk: Canden Village, Bantul

Canden Village currently has a vision of a Wellness Tourism Destination. Kiringan Hamlet, located in Kalurahan Canden, was designated a Tourism Village of Jamu Gendong (Herbal Medicine) in 2016. Canden has several natural, cultural, artistic, and culinary tourism potentials spread across Canden Hamlet, Ngibikan Hamlet, Suren Kulon Hamlet, Suren Wetan, and Banyudono. Several problems related to access, namely, the primary entrance to Kalurahan Canden is not feasible, the physical condition of the road could be more suitable for motorized vehicles, and there needs to be an area marker as a wayfinding facility. In addition to accessibility conditions, disaster response in the area is critical. Canden’s location around the Opak Fault and the Opak River causes this area to have several potential natural disasters. This study of disaster response needs to be conducted to enhance a tourism village as a tourist destination that is safe, comfortable, and sustainable. The object of this study is Canden Village in Bantul, which has several disaster risks. The research aims to determine the level of disaster response in Canden as a Tourism Village. The research method is a qualitative research method using grounded theory and space syntax connectivity-visibility analysis. The concept of disaster response consists of evacuation routes, protective areas, safe zones, open spaces, and public facilities. The results of the study show that the aspect of disaster response in the region is essential to support regional security factors. This research can be a study for disaster response tourist spots and support the sustainability of an area as a tourist destination.

The Utilization of Ternate Oral Tradition for The Identification of Potential Disasters

Oral traditions, as an integral part of a society's belief system, not only serve as a guide for society in daily life, such as interactions between members of society and other people, and even with nature or the environment, but they also serve as recorders of history and culture, including natural events. This paper aims to describe the oral traditions of Ternate to identify potential natural disasters that hit Ternate City in particular and North Maluku in general. Therefore, the author uses the theory of myth function to embody the main research problem. The approach used in this paper is semiotics, especially in interpreting natural disasters that occurred in the past through codes contained in oral stories or legends. The research results show that the people of Ternate can only explain a few natural events in the past. Then, it is ontologically digested into myth to symbolise the cosmic-mystical realm of thought. Apart from that, the results of this reflection are related to cause-and-effect events, give rise to rules of behaviour, and become local intellectual ideals. However, records of natural phenomena or past events in myths or legends can, in theory, be linked to the truth and thus make cycles of disaster predictable. On the other hand, in a formal educational setting, this legend can be used to teach about mitigation. Legends about the mysterious origins of certain lakes are thought to include aspects of disaster or mitigation in Ternate.

Comparison of coastal tourism destination management against natural disasters of New Zealand and Indonesia

Coastal tourist destinations have vulnerability to the potential for tsunamis. New Zealand and Indonesia as a coastal tourism destination that facing the risk of natural disasters. This study aims to compare coastal tourism destination management policies against natural disasters in New Zealand and Indonesia. Through the literature review method, this paper analyzes proactive disaster management practices and policies in both countries. New Zealand has developed an efficient early warning system and raised public awareness, while Indonesia has financial challenges and vast areas as obstacles to natural disaster management. Research recommendations include the development of a more responsive early warning system, improved safety education for tourism actors, and greater budget allocation for mitigation projects. These measures are directed at strengthening Indonesia's preparedness in the face of potential natural disasters.

Selected Issues Concerning Critical Infrastructure Security Management

Based on the assessment of contemporary reality, it can be said that one of the most critical functions of a modern state is to provide its citizens with an acceptable level of security – that is to say, to create optimal conditions for protection against hypothetical and real threats, such as potential natural disasters, consequences of civilizational advancements (accidents or man-made disasters), terrorist attacks, wars, and armed conflicts. It should be emphasized that in modern, democratic societies, the right of people (social groups) to be protected from numerous threats results from the legal, ethical, and moral norms in force, which have been developed in civilizational development and are based on historical experience. The research focused on analyzing normative documents (laws and regulations) and selected scientific and popular science literature dedicated to the functioning of the crisis management system and contemporary management. The synthetic conclusions of this analysis constitute the basis for further in-depth research.

Local Government Resonance on Disaster Potential Issues

Ring of fire that surround Indonesia from east to the west made this country become potential vulnerable to various types of natural disasters, Morowali is a district located in central sulawesi province that one of a disaster-prone area. It is traversed by the Matano fault which connected to Palu Koro fault which is a fault with approximately 8 mm active movement per year. This study aims to see how far the local government of Morowali responds to the issue of potential disasters, consider that Morowali district is one of the areas designated by the state government as a special economic zone. This study using an exploratory case study that does not see phenomena only from problems but also in the form of social activities, groups, and organization. Niklas Luhmann's concept of resonance is the main reference in describes the interconnection between systems and the environment. Research data obtained using in-depth interviews, focus group discussions, and field observations. The informants in this study were executive and legislative board. The results show that the executive and legislative response to the issue of potential natural disasters shows the resonant capacity of two functional systems politics and economics are weak, which shows that the government's system should encourage the concept of proactive adaptation to strengthen its response to the existing potential disasters and create security for the Morowali community.

Analysis of Potential Natural Disaster Risks in Buleleng Regency

Buleleng is one of the regency in the Province of Bali which has various potential disaster risks, mainly dominated by natural disaster. This condition is influenced by the topography of the Buleleng Regency area which has the characteristics of Nyegara Gunung, namely to the north is a coastal area while to the south is a hill’s area. Based on these conditions, it is necessary to have a risk analysis of natural disasters that have the potential to occur, so that alternative disaster management can be made. This study aims to determine the potential for disaster risk in Buleleng Regency and how the priorities for handling from the level of risk and intensity of the threat. The method used in this study is an analysis of potential natural disaster risks obtained from a combination of hazard, vulnerability and capacity data. Threat data was obtained from data released by BNPB from the inarisk.bnpb.go.id, while vulnerability and capacity data were obtained from interviews and secondary data from related agencies. The entire data obtained was then conducted an FGD with BPBD Buleleng Regency which was then analyzed descriptive qualitative. Based on the research results, it was found that the potential for disasters in Buleleng Regency were categorized into 2, namely: disasters that have a high risk impact are Earthquakes and Tsunamis, while disasters with high incident intensity are floods, extreme weather, extreme waves and abrasion, drought, landslides, flash floods and fires.

Knowledge, Attitude and Education on Tourist Preparedness In The Tourist Locations Of Penatatan Sibolangit, North Sumatra In Facing Potential Natural Disasters

Indonesia as a country full of vulnerability from all aspects will never be separated from events called disasters. As well as causing a lot of loss and loss of life for the whole community, especially tourist groups, vulnerability due to ignorance to manage disaster risk is one of the factors that make people trapped in a situation when a disaster occurs. This is also used as the right moment for the community to start caring and also change their mindset on the importance of disaster management, or better known as Disaster Risk Reduction. This type of research uses explanatory research. The population in the study of all tourists at the Penatapan Sibolangit tourist location was 278 tourists. The research sample is 66 tourists. Data obtained by interview using a questionnaire and analyzed by logistic regression at CI: 95%. The purpose of this study was to analyze the influence of tourist knowledge, attitudes and education on tourist preparedness in dealing with disaster risks at tourist sites. The results of the study after statistical tests on the variables of knowledge, attitude and education of tourists have a significant relationship. It is hoped that the Karo Regency Government and the North Sumatra Provincial Government can provide support for the implementation of disaster education so that at all levels of education have the same understanding of the need for disaster preparedness to increase preparedness as an effort to reduce the risk of natural disasters.

Sentinel-1 InSAR-derived land subsidence assessment along the Texas Gulf Coast

Mapping large-scale coastal subsidence is significant in providing valuable support to decision-making stakeholders to recognize impacts of potential natural disasters. However, this task presents significant challenges due to its highly complex nature of the spatial–temporal variability. Recent advances in the observation capability of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) missions and the processing algorithms of interferometric SAR (InSAR) techniques have made it possible to efficiently map large-scale subsidence from space. This study utilized the persistent scatterer (PS) InSAR method to process four swathes of Sentinel-1 SAR images captured between 2016 and 2022 to map large-scale subsidence along the Texas coastline. The subsidence map, encompassing over 1.7 million PS points, was calibrated/validated with observations of 115 continuously operating global navigation satellite system (cGNSS) stations. Nineteen subsiding hotspots were identified and potential subsidence drivers were analyzed, including hydrocarbon extraction (HE), groundwater withdrawal (GW), and salt domes. The results suggest that HE activities were the primary driver of observed subsidence in the Coastal Bend and South Texas, as well as in the Southeast Texas regions. In the Houston-Galveston Area, subsidence appears to be influenced by a combination of GW, HE, and salt dome movements. Within 50 km of the Texas shorelines, subsidence rates were approximately −1.0 mm/yr within the coastal vicinity, while inland areas experience a gradually increasing trend. Specific coastal areas, such as Corpus Christi, Freeport, Seabrook, San Leon, and others, may face elevated flooding risks during high tide and storm events with the sea-level rise trend up to 24.0 mm/yr in relation to coastal subsiding land.

Implementing the Sendai Framework for Volunteers in Sidoarjo District

Introduction: Indonesia has a myriad of potential natural disasters that will occur. In the last 10 years, for example, the same disasters have happened again in Indonesia every year. This study aimed to determine the Sendai framework implementation on volunteers in the Sidoarjo district. Methods: This study used an analytic design with a cross sectional design. A sample size of 35 from a population of 50 was obtained by simple random sampling at the Sidoarjo Tangguh Volunteer Forum (FOREST). The independent variable is Sendai Framework, while the dependent variable is natural disaster management. Data analysis using independent T test. Results: based on this study, most respondents showed an increase in skill after the intervention, which before intervention most respondents were having not have enough skill of disaster management (21 respondents; 60.0%) and turned into most of the respondents had good skills after the intervention (28 respondents; 80.0%). The Wilcoxon sign rank test with a significance level of = 0.05 obtained a value of = 0.01. Conclusion: Sendai framework effectively increased disaster risk reduction capacity. Further studies are needed to assess the effectiveness of Sendai Framework in improving someone's skill in disaster management, including compounding factors related to the outcome.

Resilience assessment methodology of natural gas network system under random leakage

Natural gas accounts for more than 20% of global primary energy demand. Potential natural or man-made disasters can cause natural gas supply shortages, with severe economic and social consequences. System resilience is difficult to achieve because of many factors affecting the natural gas network system (NGNS) and the uncertainty of the timing, location, and shock strengths. A new methodology for evaluating the resilience of NGNS under random leakage conditions is developed by combining Monte Carlo simulation and hydraulic analysis of an unsteady flow. A resilience metric based on gas supply capacity and reliability is proposed. The extensive time delay and nonlinear dynamic characteristics of the system caused by the compressibility of the natural gas are considered in combination with hydraulic analysis. System uncertainty in damage and recovery states is resolved by batch simulation of the random leakage. The resilience value is calculated by integrating the performance curve. The proposed methodology is demonstrated on the NGNS of Shandong Province, China, and results show that it can effectively assess the resilience of the NGNS under random leakage conditions.

Forecasting of Rainfall across River Basins Using Soft Computing Techniques: The Case Study of the Upper Brahmani Basin (India)

Floods are potential natural disasters that might disrupt human activities, resulting in severe losses of life and property in a region. Excessive rainfall is one of the reasons for flooding, especially in the downstream areas of a catchment. Because of their complexity, understanding and forecasting rainfalls are challenging. This paper aims to apply the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) in predicting average monthly rainfalls by considering several surface weather parameters as predictors. The Upper Brahmani Basin, which extends over 17,504 km2, was considered as a study area. Therefore, an ANFIS model was developed to forecast rainfalls using 37 years of climate data from 1983 to 2020. A hybrid model with six membership functions provided the best forecast for the area under study. The suggested method blends neural network learning capabilities with transparent language representations of fuzzy systems; 75% of data (from 1983 to 2006) was set aside for training and 25% (from 2006 to 2020) for testing. The Gaussian membership function with the hybrid algorithm provided satisfactory accuracy with R-values for training and testing equal to 0.90 and 0.87, respectively. Therefore, a new promising forecasting model was developed for the period from 2021 to 2030. The highest rainfall was forecasted for the period June–August, which is a striking characteristic of the monsoon climate. The study area is relatively close to the equatorial warm climate region. Hence, the proposed model might be of consistent use for regions lying in similar latitudes.

Peridynamics for mechanism analysis of soil desiccation cracking: Coupled hygro-mechanical model, staggered and monolithic solution

Soil shrinkage cracking is a hygro-mechanical coupled phenomenon and it can significantly weaken the mechanical properties of soil and cause various potential natural disasters. This study proposes an improved bond-based peridynamics (PD) formulation, based on a comprehensive review of the hygro-mechanical peridynamic models. The proposed model with a certain influence function can be recast as an existing bond-based PD diffusion model. Also, an attenuation kernel function and discretized micro-modulus are adopted to revise the bond force density in the prototype micro-elastic brittle (PMB) model. For the numerical implementation, both monolithic and staggered schemes are adopted for the coupled hygro-mechanical problem. Specifically, the coupled stiffness matrix in the discretized equilibrium equation is constructed by using the Lagrange multiplier method for the monolithic scheme. While the direct integration method of explicit dynamics with an artificial damping term is adopted for the staggered scheme. For modeling of soil drying and cracking, two-dimensional soil rings, and two- and three-dimensional soil strips are simulated and demonstrated. The soil ring model verifies the accuracy of the coupled moisture-soil bond-based PD model through an explicit staggered scheme, and explores the effect of the relative thickness of rings on the number of cracks. The implicit monolithic solution is adopted to analyze the mechanisms of soil strip cracking. A detailed discussion on the scheme for controlling the maximum number of bond breakage is provided to guarantee convergency and accuracy with optimal efficiency. The soil strip cracking pattern and upward curling deformation agree well with experimental observations. The results show that the hygro-mechanical coupled peridynamic model has great advantages in solving soil drying and cracking. The present work shows a potential way in soil desiccation cracking investigation for real-scale simulation and fine mechanism exploration.

Quantitative Analysis of Relative Tectonic Activities of Geothermal Areas of Lainea, South Konawe District, Southeast Sulawesi Province, Indonesia

The tectonic activity that occurs in the Southeast Sulawesi Province causes this area to be traversed by many geological structures in the forms of faults trending Northwest-Southeast, and it is estimated that it is still active today. One evidence of the activity of these faults is the emergence of geothermal manifestations of Lainea. Therefore, this research was conducted to prove the level of tectonic activeness of an area as a part of mitigating potential natural disasters that might occur. This research activity aims to determine the level of tectonic activeness in the research area. So that from this purpose, the researcher uses the method, namely the quantitative geomorphic method, which includes morphotectonics analysis using the Digital Elevation Model data combined with direct observation of the type of lithology, geomorphological features, and geological structures that develop in the study area to produce a Relative Tectonic Activity Index. The results obtained from this study where the class of tectonic activity in the study area is divided into three tectonic activity classes, namely high tectonic activity classes in watersheds 4 and 7 with an area of ± 20.5 km2, medium tectonic activity class in watershed 1, 5, 6, 8, 9 with an area of ± 40.9 km2, and low tectonic activity class in watersheds 2 and 3 with an area of ± 12.8 km2. Areas that have a high tectonic activity class have the potential for seismic hazards caused by the movement of geological structures found in the study area.

Assessment of building seismic risk in the environment of Ibn Khaldun University Bogor

<p>The city of Bogor has varied contours and high rainfall. Potential natural disasters that often occur include floods, landslides, collapsed buildings, fires, landslides, hurricanes, earthquakes, and landslides. The city of Bogor is included in the zone 4 earthquake. Buildings in the Ibn Khaldun University (UIKA) Bogor were erected vertically as an optimization of limited land. The study of the vulnerability of buildings to earthquakes is very important to ensure that building users are in a safe condition during the service life of buildings against earthquakes using the Rapid Visual Screening (RVS) Method and the Hazus Method. The RVS form is obtained from the design spectra and the response spectrum, namely the high seismicity level based on the building coordinates. Based on the results of the RVS, the value of the vulnerability of buildings in the UIKA Bogor environment is 0.086% with an average value of 3.156. Based on the inspection that has been carried out, the buildings are classified as C1 and S1 building types, vertical irregularities occur in 3 buildings, plan irregularities occur in 1 building out of a total of 9 buildings and the land is assumed to be medium soil (type D) because there is no soil investigation.</p>