European Potential Research Articles

Climatology of severe hail potential in Europe based on a convection-permitting simulation

We present a new approach to identify severe hailstorms in a convection-permitting climate model, and build a climatology of severe hail potential in Europe using an ingredients-based approach based on a 20-year long hindcast simulation. Severe hail in Europe occurs mostly in southern regions (up to 40 times a year per 10,000 km2 around Northern Italy), and from May to August. It peaks from afternoon to evening hours on land, whilst sea areas are prone to hail at any time of the day. The Mediterranean Sea experiences severe hailstorms mostly in autumn: the central Mediterranean has the highest frequency among all regions studied, and may be considered as an unknown alley for hailstorms in Europe. Results derived from the high-resolution model are in very good agreement with existing hail climatologies constructed from observations, including the fine scale spatial variation. We conclude that our approach provides a reliable proxy for studying future changes in severe hail in convection-permitting simulations.

Navigating the Honey Markets Across Europe and Africa

India ranks fourth globally in terms of honey export but the Indian honey was mainly exported to American and Asian continent consisting of over 85 per cent of total honey exported by India leaving huge untapped potential in Europe which is second largest importer of honey worldwide as well as Africa. Keeping this in mind an analysis of European and African honey market was done using secondary data and results were interpreted in excel sheet. It was found that European honey production was primarily led by Spain. The continent accounted for approximately 45 per cent of global honey imports, with Germany being the largest importer with imported value of 306674.7 thousand USD (2023). India shared less than 0.1 per cent of total European honey imports. It was also observed that Africa contributed to 10 per cent of the world's total honey output. The continent’s honey import was considerably lower than global imports. In terms of export, Egypt led African honey exports. India shared only 12 per cent of total honey imports to Africa. It was noted that both Europe and Africa presented huge untapped potential for Indian honey. It was suggested to improve post harvest management of honey for maintaining quality standards and government support for increasing exports to the continents.

The role of Niger’s uranium supply to France’s electricity export potential in Europe

This article examines the role of stability of Niger uranium supply to France for the volume of electricity export to Europe, as well as the possible role of Russia in resolving the uranium deficit for nuclear power plants in France. France is considered one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of nuclear energy. For more than 50 years, one of the main suppliers of uranium to France has been its former colony, represented by Niger. Due to the events of 27 July 2023 in the Niger, there is a high risk of a complete cut in the supply of Niger uranium to France, which threatens the energy security not only of France, but of all its neighbors: Germany, the United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, Switzerland and others. Also in this work, the statistical data on uranium shipments from other countries to France are analyzed, the possible risks associated with the changing political situation in the African region are predicted and various measures are presented, which could be taken to mitigate the impact of the disruption of uranium supplies from the Niger to France’s nuclear sector.

Beyond urban farm and community garden, a new typology of urban and peri‐urban agriculture in Europe

AbstractToday, many cites in Europe have rediscovered urban and peri‐urban agriculture (UA) as a contributor to a more healthy and sustainable urban environment. However, UA has not yet unfolded its potential due to gaps in knowledge, expertise, and advocacy. A clear typology is instrumental in identifying, understanding, and acknowledging the potential of UA at different levels of policy making. Although a number of typologies are used in practice and in literature, an overarching typology that steps beyond the local and national perspective, and that includes promising innovations like vertical farming, is lacking. The aim of this paper is to offer such a typology of urban agriculture in Europe. Based on interviews with experts in the field representing 11 European countries (n = 16) and an online survey on characteristics and dimensions of UA initiatives (n = 112; representing 18 countries), our typology exists of six different UA types: (1) urban farm, (2) community park, (3) do‐it‐yourself garden/farm, (4) zero acreage farm, (5) social farm, and (6) community garden. Although this paper presents these types as distinctive entities, we stress that a typology is inevitably a simplification of reality, as in real‐life there is an overlap in the proposed types. Moreover, seeing that the field of modern UA is highly dynamic, the typology is only a snapshot of current‐day UA. That said, the suggested typology—along with the dimensions that characterize it—structures the apparent diversity of UA and is therefore instrumental as conversation starter of UA's potential in Europe.

Universal Modular Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator for Small Low-Head Hydropower Plants

Small hydropower plants (SHPs) can significantly exploit the unutilised hydropower potential in Europe. In particular, this applies to run-of-the-river power plants with low heads. Variable speed technology, high-efficiency, and low-speed synchronous generators with permanent magnets (PMSGs) can significantly improve the efficiency of such SHPs. Unfortunately, the cost of design and implementation of PMSGs for a specific SHP remains significantly high compared to a classic induction generator. This study proposes to reduce the cost of PMSG production by applying a new idea of modular construction of the generator. The proposed solution assumes the possibility of using a universal segment to implement generators of different power (through parallel connection) and rotational speed (by reconfiguring the stator winding). The generator parameters are determined on the basis of an analysis of Poland's hydropower potential and matched to the hydro set with a discharge of 1 to 10 m3/s and heads of 1.5 to 3.5 m. A full-size prototype of a 120 kW three-segment generator is developed. Prototype tests for various configurations of segment windings confirmed that the idea of a modular generator is possible for industrial implementation. However, further optimization work related to improving the efficiency, symmetry, and repeatability of segments is recommended.

PERFORMANCE EFFICIENCY INCREASE OF THE MICROGRIDS WITH ENERGY STORAGE SYSTEMS

In this paper, an analysis of the potential of using RES for the heat supply needs of public and residential buildings in Ukraine and the world is carried out. It was determined that Ukraine has one of the largest potentials in Europe for the use of RES. An analysis of the "Energy Strategy of Ukraine for the period until 2035 "Security, energy efficiency, competitiveness" was carried out and it was concluded that there is a trend towards decentralization of energy supply and an increase in the use of RES technologies for thermal energy generation. The total primary energy supply was analyzed by types of sources and volumes of generation. On the basis of a comparative analysis of actual and projected data on RES energy generation, it was concluded that there is a trend towards a gradual decrease in thermal energy generation by coal, gas, and oil-fired boilers, and an increase in generation using biomass boilers, solar collectors, and heat pumps. Based on the analysis of the Net Zero strategy, it was concluded that Ukraine and the world will gradually reduce the use of traditional generation and introduce modern technologies not only for the needs of electricity supply, but also for the needs of heat supply.

Biochar and Its Potential to Deliver Negative Emissions and Better Soil Quality in Europe

AbstractNegative emissions are essential to limit global warming, but their large‐scale deployment rises sustainability concerns. At the same time, agricultural soils are under increasing threat of degradation, as measured by losses in soil organic matter, water holding capacity, and nutrient retention, with increasing negative effects on plant productivity. Biochar from biomass residues is a technically mature option that does not compete for land and can typically restore key functions of degraded soils while delivering negative emissions. However, quantitative estimates of its potentials in Europe and a detailed spatially‐explicit analysis of the co‐benefits and trade‐offs for agricultural land are unclear. Here, we estimate an annual negative emission potential of biochar from forest and crop residues available in Europe from 1.7% to 3.9% of 2021s European greenhouse gas emissions (15.2%–35% of the agricultural emissions), depending on residue potentials and biochar scenarios. At the same time, biochar application to cropland increases water holding capacity (+6.5%‐9%), crop production (+7.1%‐8.4%), NH3 volatilization (+21.7%‐24.2%), and reduces soil N2O emissions (−13.7%–34.7%) and nitrogen leaching (−17.5%–22.7%). There are spatially heterogeneous trade‐offs for some soil effects (ammonia volatilization and yields) and air pollution (mainly due to emissions from biochar systems). Biochar offers synergistic solutions that co‐deliver across different sustainability challenges, but its optimal deployment requires strategies tailored to local conditions.

Multi-criteria analysis to evaluate tidal energy potential in France

France benefits from an important tidal energy resource, with the second largest potential in Europe, and one of the biggest in the world. In addition, France has an important industrial and academic fabric, with several tidal developers, shipyards, and research centers, creating, theoretically, an attractive environment. However, though some tidal turbines already installed, such as Sabella demonstrator at Ouessant Island, or Guinard energy turbine in the Etel river, the sector still has a large development potential. One limitation of such a development is the lack of available data to assess the total potential. Previous studies mainly focused on the most energetic sites, such as the Alderney Race or the Fromveur Passage, while other sites are neglected. Yet, those sites, such has rivers or estuaries, offer softer conditions, lowering the risks. Moreover, although identifying a suitable area for tidal array implementation requires technical criteria (maximum current velocity, water depth, installable potential, etc.), it should also consider other aspects such as ecological indicators (migratory fishes, specific habitats, etc.), regulation specificities (Natura 2000, ZNIEFF, etc.) or human activities conflicts (fishery, UXO, etc.). On top of that, socioeconomic indicators, such as potential local content or partnerships with relevant academic stakeholders, are encouraged by authorities, and must be accounted for.
 Hence, this study proposes an extensive multi-criteria analysis methodology, to assess tidal energy potential of ten sites in France, including five nearshore locations (Alderney race, Fromveur passage, Raz-de-Sein, Raz-Barfleur, Paimpol-Bréhat), and five estuaries, river or similar (Gironde estuary, Gulf of Morbihan, Adour river, Etel river, Arcachon Bay). The analysis is limited to ten sites, selected based on a pre-screening analysis, which will be detailed in the study.
 The different criteria used will be presented, including their weight to the final score which reflect their importance during project development, and the 3-level grading system used to discriminate sites. The methodology developed to assess full-time equivalent employments created by a tidal array, using world input-output tables and other economic parameters will also be detailed. A specific focus will be proposed on methodology used to assess the installable capacity, relying on data from MARS 2D model for nearshore sites and public data for the others.
 First analysis shows that Raz-de-Sein and Paimpol-Bréhat are the two most suitable sites for tidal arrays implementation, while the Alderney Race is the most energetic one. Those results are driven by high scores obtained by these sites in categories such as ecological or human activities. Direct, indirect, and induced employments created during construction and operational phase by each project are also calculated, as well as potential growth value added. Hypothesis and sensitivity to them will be discussed.
 This research was funded by the H2020 projet ELEMENT, grant number 815180.

Reproductive performance effects of rearing the quasi-social parasitoid, Sclerodermus brevicornis (Hymenoptera: Bethylidae), on a factitious host.

Wasps in the genus Sclerodermus are ectoparasitoids that typically attack the larvae of woodboring coleopterans. Interest in these species is increasing as they are used in programs to control longhorn beetle pests of economic importance in China and have invasive pest control potential in Europe. Wasps may be mass reared for field release, but using the target host species can be time consuming and physically demanding. There is thus a need for factitious hosts with lower production costs and that are easier to rear. The present research focuses on Sclerodermus brevicornis, which was found in Italy in association with the invasive longhorn beetle, Psacothea hilaris hilaris, and can be laboratory reared on this longhorn beetle and on a factitious lepidopteran host, Corcyra cephalonica. As it is known that the biology of natural enemies can be influenced by the host they emerge from and that the behavior of S. brevicornis is relatively complex due to its degree of sociality (multiple foundress females cooperate to paralyze the host and produce offspring communally), we explored whether, and how, performance and behavioral traits of adult females are influenced by the host species on which they were reared, both when no choice or a choice of current host species was offered. We evaluated the survival of foundresses and their movements between offered hosts and their tendency to form groups with other foundresses according to kinship and host characteristics. We also evaluated the production of offspring and the timing of their development. We found that S. brevicornis reared from C. cephalonica do have some disadvantages compared with those that have developed on P. h. hilaris but also that they recognize, prefer, and can reproduce on P. h. hilaris. We conclude that the use of the more convenient factitious host for mass-rearing is unlikely to greatly compromise the potential of S. brevicornis to suppress longhorn beetle pests in the field.

Potential maps for combined nocturnal radiative cooling and diurnal solar heating applications in Europe

Radiative cooling is a process where a surface cools down by radiating thermal energy into the outer space. Radiative cooling and solar heating applications can be combined in one single device named Radiative Collector and Emitter (RCE) which can generate heat during the day and cold at night. The power generated by these devices varies depending on the location's weather conditions. In this paper we predict the power and energy production potential using Kriging interpolations and give detailed prediction maps of the solar heating and radiative cooling potential using data from weather stations in Europe. On average, and considering ideal conditions, the annual radiative cooling potential in Europe is 50.24 W/m2 and 212.21 kWh/m2·year, and the solar heating potential is 225.08 W/m2 and 1152.36 kWh/m2·year. We also combine both potentials to create suitability maps of RCE technology, which show the south of Europe as having the most potential for RCE implementation. Of these regions, southern Turkey and southern Spain have a score in the suitability index higher than 70% in all the defined criteria, while with a medium filtering criterion for radiative cooling production and solar heating, most of the continent is suitable for the application of RCE technology.

About the Assessment of Cover Crop Albedo Potential Cooling Effect: Risk of the Darkening Feedback Loop Effects

Today societies face an unprecedented challenge to limit global warming and restore agricultural soils. Recent studies show that the introduction of cover crops over Europe could result in a cooling impact due to an increase in soil organic carbon stocks, a decrease in the use of fertilizers, and an increase in surface albedo of the croplands. Based on the use of remote sensing data, land cover database, meteorological data, national agricultural statistics, and ground measurements, a generic model was developed to simulate the radiative forcing following the change in surface albedo. This article analyzes the impact of the introduction of cover crops in Europe during the fallow periods. Compared to previous studies, this work discusses: (i) The maximum greening potential in Europe and the associated indirect surface properties changes (ii) for snowfall episodes, and (iii) due to an increase in organic matter. This study shows that the mitigation potential of cover crops through albedo effects could reach 6.74 MtCO2-eq.yr−1 by extending the periods of the introduction of the cover crops to all possible fallow periods. This mitigation could be limited to 5.68 MtCO2-eq.yr−1 if the impact of snowfalls is considered. This would be equivalent to 9.12 gCO2.m−2.yr−1. Finally, this study investigates the feedback loop due to soil darkening with soil organic carbon content increase when cover crops are introduced, considering two scenarios. The first considers the soil organic carbon content increase following repeated incorporation of cover crop biomass into the soil, simulated with the DayCent model. The second, more conceptual and extreme scenario aims at alerting on the possible impact of a combination of carbon farming practices, such as biochar or organic amendments. Our results show that this effect could lead to a loss of 20% of the climate benefit (i.e., 5.39 MtCO2-eq.yr−1). In conclusion, this study shows that cover crops have a strong potential for climate mitigation through direct albedo effects (soil coverage). However, once introduced, cropland should be permanently covered by vegetation or straws in order to avoid this darkening feedback loop effect.

Climate change influences in the determination of the maximum power potential of radiative cooling. Evolution and seasonal study in Europe

In the recent years, radiative cooling has emerged as a promising technology for space cooling applications. Nevertheless, radiative cooling phenomenon is dependent on weather conditions and it presents some performance limitations, meaning that the cooling capacity is limited in some climates. The radiative cooling potential is the maximum theoretical limit that can be achieved. In this study we analyse the evolution of the radiative cooling potential in Europe under the context of climate change. Radiative cooling potential maps for the period 2020–2050 are provided. The results reveal that radiative cooling potential remains constant for this period, evidencing a resilience of this technology during the following decades. We also provide a seasonal study of the potential by regions. Summer, when cooling needs are higher, is the season with the least nocturnal energy potential and the second with the highest nocturnal power potential. Shifting to all-day radiative cooling, the energy potential increases by 1.64 in winter; 2.97 in spring; 4.03 in summer and 2.2 in autumn.

Niche and Range Shifts of the Fall Webworm (Hyphantria cunea Dury) in Europe Imply Its Huge Invasion Potential in the Future.

The fall webworm (Hyphantria cunea Dury) has a strong impact on agricultural systems in Europe. However, its invasive potential, which was inherited from its native niche in North America, remains unknown. Here, we investigated the climatic niche and range shifts of the fall webworm in Europe and compared them with those in native North America, then assessed the worms' invasive potential in Europe. Compared with the fall webworm in Europe, those in North America survived in more diverse climatic conditions, which was closely associated with their broader niche and larger potential ranges in Europe. If the fall webworm in Europe could exploit the native niche inherited from those in North America to adapt to climatic conditions in Europe, their potential ranges in Europe could be 5.5-fold those based on the niche as introduced in Europe. The potentially unfilled ranges of the fall webworm in Europe were mainly detected in vast regions of Europe, excluding Norway, Sweden, Finland, North Russia, Hungary, Croatia, Romania, and Ukraine, suggesting that, without strict control, these vast regions might be preferably invaded by the fall webworm in Europe in the future. Therefore, strict control against its invasion is needed. Given that small niche shifts in this invasive insect could result in large range shifts, the niche shifts represent a more sensitive indicator of invasion risk than range shifts.

Wind Power Forecasts and Network Learning Process Optimization through Input Data Set Selection

Energy policies of the European Union, the United States, China, and many other countries are focused on the growth in the number of and output from renewable energy sources (RES). That is because RES has become increasingly more competitive when compared to conventional sources, such as coal, nuclear energy, oil, or gas. In addition, there is still a lot of untapped wind energy potential in Europe and worldwide. That is bound to result in continuous growth in the share of sources that demonstrate significant production variability in the overall energy mix, as they depend on the weather. To ensure efficient energy management, both its production and grid flow, it is necessary to employ forecasting models for renewable energy source-based power plants. That will allow us to estimate the production volume well in advance and take the necessary remedial actions. The article discusses in detail the development of forecasting models for RES, dedicated, among others, to wind power plants. Describes also the forecasting accuracy improvement process through the selection of the network structure and input data set, as well as presents the impact of weather factors and how much they affect the energy generated by the wind power plant. As a result of the research, the best structures of neural networks and data for individual objects were selected. Their diversity is due to the differences between the power plants in terms of location, installed capacity, energy conversion technology, land orography, the distance between turbines, and the available data set. The method proposed in the article, using data from several points and from different meteorological forecast providers, allowed us to reduce the forecast error of the NMAPE generation to 3.3%.

Archetypes of agri-environmental potential: a multi-scale typology for spatial stratification and upscaling in Europe

Developing spatially-targeted policies for farmland in the European Union (EU) requires synthesized, spatially-explicit knowledge of agricultural systems and their environmental conditions. Such synthesis needs to be flexible and scalable in a way that allows the generalization of European landscapes and their agricultural potential into spatial units that are informative at any given resolution and extent. In recent years, typologies of agricultural lands have been substantially improved, however, agriculturally relevant aspects have yet to be included. We here provide a spatial classification approach for identifying archetypal patterns of agri-environmental potential in Europe based on machine-learning clustering of 17 variables on bioclimatic conditions, soil characteristics and topographical parameters. We improve existing typologies by (a) including more recent biophysical data (e.g. agriculturally-important soil parameters), (b) employing a fully data-driven approach that reduces subjectivity in identifying archetypal patterns, and (c) providing a scalable approach suitable both for the entire European continent as well as smaller geographical extents. We demonstrate the utility and scalability of our typology by comparing the archetypes with independent data on cropland cover and field size at the European scale and in three regional case studies in Germany, Czechia and Spain. The resulting archetypes can be used to support spatial stratification, upscaling and designation of more spatially-targeted agricultural policies, such as those in the context of the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy post-2020.

Marine Biofuels Costs and Emissions Study for the European Supply Chain Till 2030

The design and preliminary estimations of biomass supply chains are essential in matching energy supply to energy demand. This is especially true of novel/future fuels and technologies in large industries. In this paper, a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model was formulated to represent biofuel supply chains across Europe for the production of three novel marine fuels and to allow the selection of fuel conversion technologies, biomass supply locations, and the logistics of transportation from resources to conversion and from conversion to final markets. On top of this, the total production costs and emissions were calculated and compared to current marine fuels to assess the implementation potential and feasibility of these fuels. The MILP model was used to design and analyze optimal distribution and conversion systems, using a realistic data-set covering the European member states and 15 of the largest bunkering ports in the EU. The results showed that on average, the fuels obtained a 72% greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction compared to a fossil fuel comparator and ranged from 22–36 €/GJ in total production costs. It was also discovered that forestry residues were the best-suited biomass for the production of these fuels and that Poland had the highest supply potential of all considered states. The available supply of biomass was sufficient for the demand in the foreseeable future, the largest impediment to the adoption of these fuels is the available refining potential in Europe.

Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Potentials in Europe by Sector: A Bootstrap-Based Nonparametric Efficiency Analysis

The reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is the key action to limit global warming. An important source of greenhouse gas emissions and pollution is the inefficiency of production processes. We report results from a stochastic nonparametric efficiency analysis using directional distance functions to take account of undesirable outputs like greenhouse gases. With this approach, we are able to provide estimates of the potential emission reductions for 7 main sectors in 16 European countries. A specially adapted bootstrapping approach allows to implement a bias correction of the estimates and to compute confidence intervals. The results show that static efficiency improvements are a quantitatively important element of the emission reductions which are required to achieve the reduction targets of the European Union.

Offshore wind energy potential in Europe: a forecast of installed capacities and costs

Offshore wind installation targets of EU Member States were considered. The analysis of the national plans showed that EU target can be exceeded, provided the appropriate resources are committed: offshore space, capital and supply chain. Spatial plans were analyzed and the need for the number of installed turbines was determined. The capital needs to cover the costs of investment outlays were analyzed. A projection for the number of wind turbines installed in Europe up to 2030 was presented. The analysis identified how the resources committed to the targets will contribute to: the generation of electricity, the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and contribution to improving Europe’s energy independence.

Mapping Nighttime and All-Day Radiative Cooling Potential in Europe and the Influence of Solar Reflectivity

Radiative cooling is a natural process to cool down surfaces through the rejection of thermal radiation using the outer space as a cold sink, taking advantage of the transparency of the atmospheric windows (8–14 μm), which partially matches the infrared radiation band. With the development of new materials that have a high reflectivity of solar radiation, daytime radiative cooling can be achieved. This phenomenon depends on the optical properties of the surface and the local weather conditions. In this research, climatological data from 1791 weather stations were used to present detailed nighttime and all-day radiative cooling maps for the potential implementation of radiative cooling-based technologies. The paper offers a parametric study of the variation of the potential as a result of decreasing the solar reflectivity. The results show that southern Europe is the region with the highest potential while northern Europe holds more hours of available radiative cooling. After varying the solar reflectivity from 1 to 0.5 the average power reduces from 60.18 to 45.32 W/m2, and energy from 527.10 to 264.87 kWh/m2·year. For solar reflectivity lower than 0.5, all-day radiative coolers behave as nighttime radiative coolers, but power and energy values improve significantly for high values of solar reflectivity. Small variations of solar reflectivity have greater impacts on the potential at higher reflectivity values than at lower ones.

Energy Efficiency, Energy Conservation and Determinants in the Agricultural Sector in Emerging Economies

Improving energy efficiency and conservation is integral to sustain agricultural growth in emerging economies. This paper investigates the energy efficiency and energy-saving potential of the agricultural sector of 27 emerging economies using a stochastic frontier approach and Shephard distance function, and their determinants are examined using the Tobit quantile regression model. Results revealed that energy efficiency in the agricultural sector fluctuated during the period from 1998 to 2017. The median average energy efficiency was estimated at 0.74, and the cumulative energy-saving potential was estimated at 542.80 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe), which can be achieved by eliminating energy inefficiency alone. Differences exist in energy efficiency and energy-saving potential across continents, with higher potential in Asia and lower potential in Europe. Economic structure, urbanization and GDP per capita have negative influences on agricultural energy efficiency. Energy mix and pesticide use are significant drivers of energy efficiency, while the ratio of agricultural land that has varied influences different quantiles. Policy implications include optimization of the energy mix, economic structure and pesticide use.