Potential Geographic Distribution Research Articles

Using ecological niches to determine potential habitat suitability for Psacothea hilaris (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) and its natural enemies in China under future climates.

Climate change impacts the distribution of pests and its natural enemies, prompting this study to investigate the dynamics and shifts in distribution under current and future climate conditions. The spatial pattern of Psacothea hilaris (Pascoe) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in China was analyzed, and the MaxEnt model was optimized to predict the potential geographic distribution of P. hilaris and its two natural enemies (Dastarcus helophoroides (Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Bothrideridae) and Dendrocopos major (Linnaeus) (Piciformes: Picidae)) in China, to further analyze the key environmental factors affecting the survival of P. hilaris and its natural enemies, and to determine the potential of using D. helophoroides and D. major as natural enemies to control P. hilaris. The results showed that the suitable ranges of P. hilaris and natural enemies are expanding under the influence of climate change, and both have migrated to higher latitudes. The potential ranges of D. helophoroides, D. major, and P. hilaris are highly similar. It is noteworthy that the potential range of D. helophoroides completely covers the potential range of P. hilaris. This indicates that D. helophoroides and D. major can be employed as biological control agents to manage P. hilaris populations. This study provides a theoretical framework and empirical evidence for the development of early warning and green control strategies for P. hilaris.

Predicting the impact of climate change on the potential geographical distribution and growth index of mirid predator, Nesidiocoris tenuis (reuter) (Heteroptera: Miridae) using CLIMEX

Predicting the impact of climate change on the potential geographical distribution and growth index of mirid predator, Nesidiocoris tenuis (reuter) (Heteroptera: Miridae) using CLIMEX

The Oriental hornet, Vespa orientalis Linnaeus, 1771 (Hymenoptera, Vespidae): diagnosis, potential distribution, and geometric morphometrics across its natural distribution range.

We present a short review of the biology, diagnostic characteristics, and invasiveness of the Oriental hornet, Vespa orientalis. We also performed an analysis of the shape of the forewings (geometric morphometrics) of different geographic groups along their native distribution and their potential geographical distribution using the MaxEnt entropy modeling. Our results show a wide potential expansion range of the species, including an increase in environmentally suitable areas in Europe, Asia, and Africa but more especially the Western Hemisphere, where the species was recently introduced. The geometric morphometric analysis of the forewings shows that there are three different morphogroups: one distributed along the Mediterranean coast of Europe and the Middle East (MEDI), another along the Arabian Peninsula and Western Asia but excluding the Mediterranean coast (MEAS), and one more in northern Africa north of the Sahara and south of the Mediterranean coast (AFRI), all of which show differences in their potential distribution as a result of the pressure from the different environments and which will also determine the capacity of the different morphogroups to successfully invade new habitats.

Revisiting <i>Loxanthocereus riomajensis</i>, lectotypification, biogeography and conservation status of an endemic species from Arequipa, Peru

This study aims to clarify the taxonomy of Loxanthocereus riomajensis, as well as to understand its actual and potential geographic distribution, and to present its conservation status. Specialized literature was reviewed, and field visits were conducted. The collected data, including herbarium samples, presence records, and additional information, were used to describe the species in detail, create a geographical distribution map, generate potential distribution models using the MaxEnt algorithm, and assess its conservation status using IUCN considerations. The results demonstrate that morphologically, L. riomajensis is an independent species endemic to the departament of Arequipa, found in the provinces of Condesuyos and Caylloma, spanning an altitudinal range from 1600 to 2100 m asl. The potential distribution covers an area of 1135.3 km2, in the provinces of Condesuyos, Castilla, La Unión, Caravelí, Caylloma, and Arequipa. Regarding its conservation status, it is classified as endangered (EN). Finally, a lectotype is designated.

Climate change impacts on worldwide ecological niche and invasive potential of Sternochetus mangiferae.

Present climate studies on invasive species imply that climate change will alter the habitat suitability of invasive pests, especially given the projected rise in average global temperatures by the end of 2100. However, globally, limited information exists on the habitat suitability of the mango stone weevil, Sternochetus mangiferae Fabricius, which impedes the development of early detection and preventive measures. Herein, we used the MaxEnt model to estimate the potential global geographical distribution of S. mangiferae. Our results revealed that thermal conditions played a significant role in explaining the invasion risk of S. mangiferae. Habitat suitability was found in all continents, except Antarctica. Under the present condition, habitat suitability covered 5.67 × 107 km2. For ssp126, habitat suitability will decrease from the 2060s (5.58 × 107 km2) and 2080s (5.57 × 107 km2). Similarly, under ssp585, suitable areas will decrease from 5.62 × 107 to 5.51 × 107 km2 for the 2060s and 2080s, respectively. Our study has estimatedvariability in the habitat suitability of S. mangiferae which establishes a foundation for determining global riskassessment and response plans for the pest. This study also identifies areas where the pest is inherently more vulnerable to the impacts of changing climates and enables forecasting of its potential distribution in a dynamic world. © 2024 The Author(s). Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Prediction and Analysis of the Global Suitable Habitat of the Oryctes rhinoceros (Linnaeus, 1758) (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) Based on the MaxEnt Model.

The Asiatic rhinoceros beetle, Oryctes rhinoceros (Linnaeus, 1758) (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae), is a destructive invasive species that poses a serious threat to palms, oil palms, and other plants. Defining a suitable area for the distribution of O. rhinoceros is essential for the development of appropriate policies and preventive measures. In this work, the MaxEnt niche model and ArcGIS software were used to predict the potential geographic distribution of O. rhinoceros in the world based on occurrence data and related environmental variables and to speculate on the influence of environmental variables on the distribution of O. rhinoceros. The results showed that the suitable areas of O. rhinoceros beetle were mainly distributed in 30° N-30° S, and the highly suitable areas were concentrated in South Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and northern Oceania. The key environmental variables that determine the distribution location of O. rhinoceros are Precipitation of Wettest Month (bio13), Temperature of July (tmin7), Minimum Temperature of November (tmin11), and Precipitation of September (prec9). The prediction results of the MaxEnt model can reflect the global distribution of O. rhinoceros. This study can provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of O. rhinoceros and the development of relevant quarantine measures.

Assessment of the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Suitable Habitats for Typical Halophytic Vegetation in China Based on Maxent Model and Landscape Ecology Theory

The widespread and complex formation of saline soils in China significantly affects the sustainable development of regional ecosystems. Intense climate changes and regional land use further exacerbate the uncertainties faced by ecosystems in saline areas. Therefore, studying the distribution characteristics of typical halophytic vegetation under the influence of climate change and human activities, and exploring their potential distribution areas, is crucial for maintaining ecological security in saline regions. This study focuses on Tamarix chinensis, Tamarix austromongolica, and Tamarix leptostachya, integrating geographic information systems, remote sensing, species distribution models, and landscape ecological risk (LER) theories and technologies. An optimized MaxEnt model was established using the ENMeval package, incorporating 143, 173, and 213 distribution records and 13 selected environmental variables to simulate the potential suitable habitats of these three Tamarix species. A quantitative assessment of the spatial characteristics and the area of their potential geographical distribution was conducted. Additionally, a landscape ecological risk assessment (LERA) of the highly suitable habitats of these three Tamarix species was performed using land use data from 1980 to 2020, and the results of the LERA were quantified using the Landscape Risk Index (LERI). The results showed that the suitable areas of Tamarix chinensis, Tamarix austromongolica, and Tamarix leptostachya were 9.09 × 105 km2, 6.03 × 105 km2, and 5.20 × 105 km2, respectively, and that the highly suitable habitats for the three species were concentrated in flat areas such as plains and basins. Tamarix austromongolica faced increasing ecological risk in 27.22% of its highly suitable habitat, concentrated in the northern region, followed by Tamarix chinensis in 16.70% of its area with increasing ecological risk, concentrated in the western and northern highly suitable habitats; Tamarix chinensis was the least affected, with an increase in ecological risk in only 1.38% of its area. This study provides valuable insights for the protection of halophytic vegetation, represented by Tamarix, in the context of China’s national land development.

Potential distribution of rice thrips (Stenchaetothrips biformis) in India under changing climate

Sudden outbreaks of agricultural pests are increasing in India due to the growing prominence of environmental issues like global warming, the occurrence of weather extremes, and hydrological extremes. Climate change impacts the developmental rates and population dynamics of agricultural pests. As rice is a staple food widely used in India, it often suffers intensive damage by various pests, leading to a considerable decrease in crop yield. One of the most common pests in rice fields in India and neighboring countries is the rice thrips (Stenchaetothrips biformis). However, the degree of pest infestation of rice crops under climate change scenarios is poorly known. Therefore, this study aimed to understand the potential geographical distribution of the rice thrips in India for future scenarios using the MaxEnt modeling framework. Future projections from global climate models (GCMs), such as HadGEM3-GC31 and MPI-ESMI-2, are used to predict the most affected regions in 2050 under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP3-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. The results from the MaxEnt indicate that the southern and northeastern parts of India will be highly affected by rice thrips in 2050. The affected number of districts are found to be 256, 330 and 313 under SSP1-2.6, SSP3-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. It has been observed that the maximum temperature is the most influential climatic parameter for the geographical distribution of rice thrips, followed by the annual mean and minimum temperatures. It can be concluded from these results that the elevated temperature enhances the growth and distribution of rice thrips.

Predicting the potential geographical distribution of Zingiber striolatum Diels (Zingiberaceae), a medicine food homology plant in China.

Zingiber striolatum Diels is a unique medicine food homology plant native to China. In recent years, due to severe habitat destruction, studying the impact of climate change on the distribution of wild resources is of great significance for the ecological conservation and artificial cultivation of Z. striolatum. This study collected 141 valid species distribution records, and 37 environmental variables, and projected two future climate scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) for two periods (2050s and 2090s). By employing Pearson analysis, Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt), and Geographic Information System (ArcGIS), we predicted the potential suitable habitats for Z. striolatum under present and future climates, as well as identified the dominant environmental variables influencing its distribution. The results indicated that the MaxEnt model performed well (AUC > 0.9) with high accuracy and reliability. The dominant environmental factors included Precipitation of driest quarter (39.0 ~ 473.8mm), Precipitation of wettest quarter (593.2 ~ 1269.4mm), Temperature annual range (9.8 ~ 28.6℃), and Mean diurnal range (6.5 ~ 9.6℃). The highly suitable areas for Z. striolatum were mainly distributed in western and southern Yunnan, northern and western Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, and central Hainan. Under future climate change, the centroid of the total suitable area for Z. striolatum is projected to shift towards the southwest (Yungui Plateau) at higher elevations.

MaxEnt Modeling for Predicting the Potential Geographical Distribution of Hydrocera triflora since the Last Interglacial and under Future Climate Scenarios.

Hydrocera triflora is a perennial herb found in southeastern and southern Asia. In China, it is only found in Hainan Province. With global climate change, studying the impact of climate change on the distribution of H. triflora can provide a theoretical basis for the scientific protection of this species. In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution area of H. triflora in China under historical, current, and future periods based on 66 distribution points and 12 environmental variables. The results were as follows: (i) The main environmental variables affecting the distribution of H. triflora were precipitation in the coldest month and in the wettest quarter, with elevation also being a significant factor. (ii) Over the past three periods, the last interglacial, last glacial maximum, and mid-Holocene, the suitable area for H. triflora initially decreased and then increased. The suitable area reached the lowest value in the last glacial maximum period, at only 27.03 × 104 km2. (iii) The current potential distribution area is 67.81 × 104 km2, and the optimal area is mainly distributed in the Guangxi, Guangdong, and Hainan provinces. (iv) Under future climate scenarios, the potential distribution area of H. triflora is projected to increase by 11.27~90.83 × 104 km2. It is expected to reach a maximum value (158.64 × 104 km2) in 2081~2100 under the SSP-585 climate scenario, with the distribution centroid shifting to higher latitudes. The newly gained optimal habitats will provide potential areas for introduction and ex situ conservation of this species.

Reconstructing the biological invasion of noxious invasive weed Parthenium hysterophorus and invasion risk assessment in China.

Invasive alien plants (IAPs) present a severe threat to native ecosystems and biodiversity. Comprehending the potential distribution patterns of these plant invaders and their responses to climate change is essential. Parthenium hysterophorus, native to the Americas, has become an aggressively invasive species since its introduction to China in the 1930s. This study aims to collect and reconstruct the historical occurrence and invasion of P. hysterophorus. Using the optimal MaxEnt model, the potential geographical distributions of P. hysterophorus were predicted based on screened species occurrences and environmental variables under the current and three future scenarios in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5), and the invasion risk of P. hysterophorus in Chinese cities, croplands, forests, and grasslands was assessed. The results show that: (1) The species initially invaded highly suitable areas and further spread to regions with non-analogous climate conditions. (2) Under the current climatic conditions, the overall potential distribution of P. hysterophorus is characterized by more in the southeast and less in the northwest. Climate variables, including mean annual temperature (bio1), precipitation in the wettest month (bio13), isothermality (bio3), and temperature seasonality (bio4), are the primary factors influencing its distribution. (3) The potential distribution of P. hysterophorus will expand further under future climate scenarios, particularly toward higher latitudes. (4) Forests and crop lands are the areas with the most serious potential invasion risk of P. hysterophorus. Therefore, we suggest that the government should strengthen the monitoring and management of P. hysterophorus to prevent its spread and protect agro-ecosystems and human habitats. Depending on the potential risk areas, measures such as quarantine, removal, and publicity should be taken to mitigate the threat of P. hysterophorus invasion and to raise awareness of P. hysterophorus invasion prevention.

Biosynthetic gene clusters from uncultivated soil bacteria of the Atacama Desert.

Soil microorganisms mediate several biological processes through the secretion of natural products synthesized in specialized metabolic pathways, yet functional characterization in ecological contexts remains challenging. Using culture-independent metagenomic analyses of microbial DNA derived directly from soil samples, we examined the potential of biosynthetic gene clusters (BGCs) from six bacterial communities distributed along an altitudinal gradient of the Andes Mountains in the Atacama Desert. We mined 38 metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) and identified 168 BGCs. Results indicated that most predicted BGCs were classified as non-ribosomal-peptides (NRP), post-translational modified peptides (RiPP), and terpenes, which were mainly identified in genomes of species from Acidobacteriota and Proteobacteria phyla. Based on BGC composition according to types of core biosynthetic genes, six clusters of MAGs were observed, three of them with predominance for a single phylum, of which two also showed specificity to a single sampling site. Comparative analyses of accessory genes in BGCs showed associations between membrane transporters and other protein domains involved in specialized metabolism with classes of biosynthetic cores, such as resistance-nodulation-cell division (RND) multidrug efflux pumps with RiPPs and the iron-dependent transporter TonB with terpenes. Our findings increase knowledge regarding the biosynthetic potential of uncultured bacteria inhabiting pristine locations from one of the oldest and driest nonpolar deserts on Earth.IMPORTANCEMuch of what we know about specialized metabolites in the Atacama Desert, including Andean ecosystems, comes from isolated microorganisms intended for drug development and natural product discovery. To complement research on the metabolic potential of microbes in extreme environments, comparative analyses on functional annotations of biosynthetic gene clusters (BGCs) from uncultivated bacterial genomes were carried out. Results indicated that in general, BGCs encode for structurally unique metabolites and that metagenome-assembled genomes did not show an obvious relationship between the composition of their core biosynthetic potential and taxonomy or geographic distribution. Nevertheless, some members of Acidobacteriota showed a phylogenetic relationship with specific metabolic traits and a few members of Proteobacteria and Desulfobacterota exhibited niche adaptations. Our results emphasize that studying specialized metabolism in environmental samples may significantly contribute to the elucidation of structures, activities, and ecological roles of microbial molecules.

Projection of the Potential Global Geographic Distribution of the Solanum Fruit Fly Bactrocera latifrons (Hendel, 1912) (Diptera: Tephritidae) Based on CLIMEX Models

The solanum fruit fly Bactrocera latifrons (Diptera: Tephritidae) is an invasive alien insect that causes huge economic losses to pepper and other solanaceous plant industries. It is mainly distributed in South and Southeast Asia, SW Europe, Western USA, and in some African countries. However, the potential global geographical distribution of B. latifrons is unknown. Therefore, in this study, based on the current (1981–2010) and future (2040–2059) climatic scenarios determined using the CNRM-CM5, Access1.0, GFDL-ESM-2M, and NorESM1-M models, we used a species distribution model (CLIMEX 4.0) to project the potential global geographic distribution of B. latifrons to prevent further invasion and harm. In the current climate scenario, South America (1286.06 × 104 km2), Africa (1435.47 × 104 km2), and Oceania (410.66 × 104 km2) have the largest proportions of suitable land areas for B. latifrons colonization. Under all four future climate models, the global potential suitable area for Bactrocera latifrons is projected to decrease and shift towards higher latitudes. This study provides an important baseline upon which researchers, quarantine personnel, and governments can develop the appropriate control strategies against B. latifrons.

The Potential Habitat Response of Cyclobalanopsis gilva to Climate Change.

Cyclobalanopsis gilva, a valuable timber species in China, holds significant importance for understanding the constraints imposed by climate change on the dynamic geographic distribution of tree species. This study utilized the MaxEnt maximum entropy model to reconstruct the migratory dynamics of C. gilva geographical distribution since the Last Glacial Maximum. The objective was to comprehend the restrictive mechanisms of environmental factors on its potential geographical distribution, aiming to provide insights for mid-to-long-term afforestation planning of C. gilva. The optimized MaxEnt model exhibited a significantly high predictive accuracy, with an average AUC value of 0.949 ± 0.004 for the modern suitable habitat model of C. gilva. The total suitable habitat area for C. gilva in contemporary times was 143.05 × 104 km2, with a highly suitable habitat area of 3.14 × 104 km2. The contemporary suitable habitat was primarily located in the southeastern regions of China, while the highly suitable habitat was concentrated in eastern Fujian and central-eastern Taiwan. Bioclimatic variables such as mean diurnal range (Bio2), min temperature of coldest month (Bio6), precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17), and precipitation of driest month (Bio14) predominantly influenced the modern geographic distribution pattern of C. gilva, with temperature factors playing a leading role. With global climate warming, there is a risk of fragmentation or even loss of suitable habitat for C. gilva by 2050 and 2090. Therefore, the findings of this study can significantly contribute to initiating a habitat conservation campaign for this species.

Invasive alien plants in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (China): Current state and future predictions

Invasive alien plants have received increasing attention due to their worldwide environmental impacts, ecological concerns, and significant economic consequences. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is an important global biodiversity hotspot hosting rich biodiversity and serving as a crucial component of the southwest ecological security barrier, with global conservation value. However, in recent years, invasive plants have been detrimental to the conservation of biodiversity and native ecosystems on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Here, 197 invasive plant species were recognized from the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, encompassing 133 genera across 47 families. We used the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) method to predict the potential distribution of invasive alien plants on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Furthermore, potential geographic distribution regions suitable for 43 invasive alien plant species were found to be primarily concentrated in central and eastern Qinghai, southern and eastern Tibet, southwest Xinjiang, and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau part of Sichuan, Yunnan, and Gansu in China. Notably, the current potential distribution area for all 43 invasive alien plant species accounts for 29.92 % of the total area, with an increase of 32.72–59.39 % projected by 2050. Moreover, risk screening results confirm the high risk of invasion of most alien plants on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. This study provides a foundation for assessing the risks associated with introducing and managing invasive alien plants in the region. It also offers scientific support for conserving the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau’s unique biodiversity, ecological originality, and sustainable development during economic growth.

New species of Salicaceae with opposite leaves from the Atlantic Forest, Brazil

Abatia mantiqueirensis is described and illustrated as a new species with distribution for the Brazilian states of Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro. It is morphologically similar to A. americana but can be distinguished by the presence of canaliculated petiole, acute serrate leaf margin, glands at the apex of the margin serrations that are rounded to concave and projected outwards from the leaf blade, upper portion of the pedicel winged and seeds with tiny dorsal wings. Taxonomic description, comments, and geographical distribution information are here in provided. So far, only three populations of A. mantiqueirensis are known with only one of them recorded in a protected area. Based on the availability of suitable habitats, possible threats and future potential geographical distribution, we propose the conservation status for A. mantiqueirensis as Critically Endangered.

Phylogenetic climatic niche evolution and diversification of the Neurergus species (Salamandridae) in the Irano-Anatolian biodiversity hotspot.

This study explores how climate variables influenced the evolution and diversification of Neurergus newts within the Irano-Anatolian biodiversity hotspot. We use a dated phylogenetic tree and climatic niche models to analyze their evolutionary history and ecological preferences. Using genetic data from nuclear (KIAA) and mitochondrial (16s and 12s) genes, we estimate divergence times and identify four major Neurergus clades. The initial speciation event occurred approximately 11.3 million years ago, coinciding with the uplift of the Zagros and Anatolian mountains. This geological transformation isolated newt populations, likely triggering the first speciation event. By integrating potential geographic distribution with climate variables, we reconstruct ancestral niche occupancy profiles. This highlights the critical roles of temperature and precipitation in shaping Neurergus habitat preferences and distribution. We observe both phylogenetic niche conservatism and divergence, with niche divergence playing a dominant role in diversification. This research emphasizes the complex interplay of geography, climate, and ecology in speciation and the vulnerability of isolated mountain newt populations to environmental changes.

Pushing the boundaries: actual and potential distribution of thrushes expanding their ranges in South America

The distribution of a species reflects its ecological adaptability and evolutionary history, which is shaped by the environment and represents a dynamic area subject to anthropogenic environmental change. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to construct ecological niche models for four thrush species within the Turdus genus; T. amaurochalinus, T. chiguanco, T. falcklandii and T. rufiventris. These models were used to predict the potential geographic distributions of these species that are expanding their ranges in South America. Using occurrence records, we estimated currently occupied areas for each species. We also identified suitable habitats and projected possible areas to be colonized by the four species at continental scale. Temperature annual range had the highest influence for T. falcklandii, while human modification was the main variable explaining the distribution of the other three species. The potential distribution area ranged from 2.5 million km2 for T. falcklandii to nearly seven million km2 for T. amaurochalinus. Large proportions of suitable area remain unoccupied by all four species, being 50% for T. amaurochalinus and T. rufiventris, and about 70% for T. chiguanco and T. falcklandii. Anthropogenic disturbances, such as habitat loss and ecosystem transformation, lead to non-random species extinction and biotic homogenization, highlighting the importance of predictive models as valuable tools for informing mitigation policies and conservation strategies. Thrushes are progressively expanding their ranges, and the colonization of new habitats could bring new challenges.

Effect of climate change on current and future potential distribution of Strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.) in Türkiye

The demand for nontimber forest products (NTFPs) has increased significantly in recent years. Hundreds of plant species that grow naturally in Türkiye have medicinal and aromatic value. Medicinal and aromatic plants are primarily used as a sources of tea, spices, condiments and essential oils. Species belonging to the genus Arbutus L. are used for decorative purposes and as fuel wood in many wood-based industries, they also have a wide range of uses in packaging, chairs making and furniture production. Additionally, the fruits of these trees are widely consumed by humans and animals because they are rich in sugar and vitamin C. It is predicted that changes in climatic conditions will significantly change the distribution, composition and function of forests threatening biodiversity. The purpose of this study was to model current and future potential geographical distributions of Arbutus unedo L., which is among the species that naturally grow in Türkiye and is of substantial value in terms of its ecological contribution to forest ecosystems, based on species presence data and environmental variables (bioclimatic variables and altitude). The current and future distribution area models for Arbutus unedo L. indicate that the potential distribution areas of the species in the coming years will gradually decrease, and in the SSP5 8.5 model, which represents the highest level of world resource usage this gradual decrease will reach its highest level and there will be no suitable distribution area left for the species. Therefore, it is predicted that the species will become endangered. In-situ and ex-situ conservation measures need to be taken to ensure the sustainability of the species in forestry and landscape areas.

Habitat Suitability Analysis and Future Distribution Prediction of Giant Panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) in the Qinling Mountains, China

Climate change has triggered a series of global problems, posing a huge threat to the distribution of many plants and animals, especially endangered species such as the giant panda. Therefore, predicting the distribution of habitat quality under climate change conditions is of great significance for protecting these species. In this study, we examined the correlation between suitable habitat index and ecosystem services using 260 occurrence records and 13 environmental factors with giant pandas as the model species. The species distribution models can also be employed to predict and compare the potential geographical distribution of giant pandas at present and in the 2050s and 2090s in the Qinling Mountains of Shaanxi Province. The results show the following: (1) The relationship between suitable habitat index and ecosystem services of giant panda is not uniform. (2) From 2040 to 2100, the existing habitats may decrease by 47.8% to 98.5%. (3) The main direction of change in the center of the distribution of the giant panda’s habitat is to migrate first eastward and then northwestward. Our results regarding the potential distribution pattern of giant pandas in the Qinling Mountains and their response to climate change can provide important references for optimizing the conservation and habitat management of wild giant pandas in the Qinling Mountains.